Comprehensive system of
quantitative methods for population health/disease analyses
- examples of
practical application
E P
I Z O
O
version
4.0
Prof.Dr Václav
K o u b a, DrSc.
EPIZOO
is a software package of selected methods for
animal
p o p u l a t i o n h e a l t
h analysis and
programming
applicable on any animal species, any disease
at any time and in any place
The methods have been tested and used in practice for animal population health and disease analyses and control programmes at local, national and international levels. The software is applicable to any species of animal kingdom, i.e. including Homo sapiens.
Detailed information on EPIZOO individual subprogramme formulae and procedures see in EPIZMETH software as well as in internet -www.cbox.cz/vaclavkouba/epimethodology.htm.
The examples’
results do not include: introductory
part (repeating input data) and graphs as it is normal when using EPIZOO
software.
M A I N M
E N U
OF SUBPROGRAMME GROUPS
1-Animal population - characteristics
of health importance
2-Animal population health/disease
analysis - basic indicators
3-Selected indicators of animal
population health structures
4-Selected indicators of epizootic
process dynamics
5-Selected indicators of animal
disease risk assessment
6-Consequences of animal population health
and disease
7-Investigations of animal population
health situation
8-Methods related to sampling in
population investigations
9-Selected aspects of animal
population health programmes
10-Cost and efficiency of animal
population health programmes
11-Complementary subprogrammes - I
12-Complementary subprogrammes - II
13-Annex I - Selected basic
statistical methods
14-Annex II - Other selected
statistical and economic methods
1-ANIMAL POPULATION - SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF
HEALTH IMPORTANCE
========================================================================
1-Animal population size and
species structure
2-Animal
population categories (strata) structure
3-Animal
population territorial distribution
4-Breeding/production conditions influencing animals distribution
5-Ecological conditions influencing animals distribution
6-Selected indicators related to disease resistant animals
7-Selected indicators related to disease susceptible animals
8-Animal
population production per animal, input, space and time
9-Animal
population dynamics - 'vertical movement'
10-Estimation of animals number according to
survival rates
11-Estimation of number of wild animals (vertebrates+invertebrates)
12-Estimation of animal population size based on capture/recapture
13-Estimation of animal population size based on average density
1.1-ANIMAL POPULATIONS SIZE AND SPECIES STRUCTURE
Notes: Applicable
also on the etiological agents' vectors and reservoirs. Differentiate total and at risk populations !
INPUT DATA:
animal populations ? domestic mammals
place (territory, land, sector, etc.) ?
List animal species , number of animals :
1
species, animals ? cattle,1988964
2
species, animals ? sheep,122104
3
species, animals ? goats,33133
4
species, animals ? horses,19000
5
species, animals ? pigs,3804821
RESULT:
Species Absolute Proportion Percentage
Number
cattle
1988964
0.3333
33.3270
sheep
122104
0.0205
2.0460
goats
33133
0.0056
0.5552
horses 19000
0.0032
0.3184
pigs 3804821 0.6375
63.7535
T o t a l 5968022
1.000000 100.0000
1.2-ANIMAL POPULATION
CATEGORIES (STRATA) STRUCTURE
(according to breed, age, gender, weight, physiological stage, nutrition
status, immunity status, performance, type/level of productivity, type of breeding,
type of exploitation, production stage, technology, concentration)
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
species ? cattle category according to ? age and sex
List data: name of subgroup, number of animals :
1 : ? cows,830000
2 : ? heifers >2
years,109000
3 : ? heifers 1-2
years,294000
4 : ? bulls >1 year,237000
5 : ? young 6-12 m.,297000
6 : ? calves <6
m.,392000
RESULT:
Category Number of Proportion Percentage
Subgroup Animals
cows 830000 0.384437 38.4437
heifers >2 years 109000 0.050486 5.0486
heifers 1-2 years 294000 0.136174 13.6174
bulls >1 year 237000 0.109773 10.9773
young 6-12 m. 297000 0.137564 13.7564
calves <6 m. 392000 0.181566 18.1566
T o t a l 2159000
1.000000 100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL
DISTRIBUTION
This subprogramme calculates:
1) animal
population - territorial density and distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
space measure unit ? km2
List data::
1 subterritory, s i z e, animals ?
2 subterritory, s i z e, animals ?
3 subterritory, s i z e, animals ?
4 subterritory, s i z e, animals ?
5 subterritory, s i z e, animals ?
6 subterritory, s i z e, animals ? South
Moravia,15028,416000
7 subterritory, s i z e, animals ? North
Moravia,11067,254000
RESULT :
Subterritory km2 Number of Average Proportion
Percentage
Animals Density
T o t a l 78864
2030000 25.74 1.000000
100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION
TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) farms - average number of animals and territorial distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all farm type ? all
List data :
1 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? Cent.Bohemia,2600,350608
2 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ?
3 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ?
4 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ?
5 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ?
6 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ?
7 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ?
RESULT:
Subterritory Farms Number of Average Proportion
Percentage
Animals Number (from
a l l farms)
Cent.Bohemia 2600 350608 134.85 0.204178
20.4178
T o t a l 12734
2117938 166.32 1.000000 100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL
DISTRIBUTION
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) animal population - simple territorial distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all farm type ? all according to size
List data :
1 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? <0.5 ha,103840,143247
2 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? 0.5-50 ha,23354,73413
3 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? 50-500 ha,95,23338
4 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? 500-1000 ha,135,80193
5 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? 1000-2500 ha,984,1388980
6 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? 2500-4000 ha,556,295262
7 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? 4000-6000 ha,256,901035
8 subterritory, number of f a r m s, animals ? >6000 ha,144,970710
RESULT:
F A R M S: AVERAGE NUMBER OF ANIMALS AND TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
Subterritory Farms Number of Average Proportion Percentage
Animals Number (from
a l l farms)
<0.5 ha 103840 143247 1.38
0.802696
80.2696
0.5-50 ha 23354 73413 3.14
0.180529 18.0529
50-500 ha 95 23338 245.66
0.000734
0.0734
500-1000 ha 135 80193 594.02
0.001044 0.1044
1000-2500 ha 984
1388980 1411.57
0.007606 0.7606
2500-4000 ha 556
295262 531.05
0.004298 0.4298
4000-6000 ha 256
901035 3519.67
0.001979 0.1979
>6000 ha 144
970710 6741.04
0.001113
0.1113
T o t a l 129364 3876178 29.96
1.000000 100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL
DISTRIBUTION
This subprogramme calculates: 3) animal
population - simple territorial distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
world,1995
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
List data:
1 subterritory, number of animals ?
2 subterritory, number of animals ? N.C.America,164635000
3 subterritory, number of animals ?
S.America,288831000
4 subterritory, number of animals ?
5 subterritory, number of animals ?
6 subterritory, number of animals ?
RESULT:
Subterritory Number of Proportion Percentage
Animals
Africa 196393000 0.161269 16.1269
N.C.America 164635000 0.135191 13.5191
S.America 288831000 0.237175 23.7175
Asia 425761000 0.349616 34.9616
Europe 106469000 0.087428 8.7428
Oceania 35706000 0.029320 2.9320
T o t a l 1217795000 1.000000 100.0000
1.4-BREEDING/PRODUCTION
CONDITIONS INFLUENCING ANIMALS DISTRIBUTION
(animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration,
housing, herd/flock/farm size, management, economic sector, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
type of breeding/production
conditions ? genetically controlled cows
criterion for subgrouping ?
milk yield per lactation period
conditions measure units ? milking cows
List data: name of subgroup,
number of measure units:
1 : ? 2700-3499 lit,141354
2 : ? 3500-3999 lit,62193
3 : ? 4000-4999 lit,31635
4 : ? >5000 lit,6257
RESULT:
Subgroup milking cows Proportion Percentage
2700-3499 lit 141354 0.585465 58.5465
3500-3999 lit 62193 0.257593 25.7593
4000-4999 lit 31635 0.131027 13.1027
>5000 lit 6257 0.025915 2.5915
T o t a l 241439 1.000000 100.0000
1.5-ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
INFLUENCING ANIMALS DISTRIBUTION
[atmospherical, geospherical, hydrospherical and biospherical (flora,fauna)
factors, hygiene, etc.]
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
type of ecological conditions
? land use criterion for subgrouping ? type of land
ecological conditions measure
units? ha
List data: name of subgroup,
number of measure units:
1 : ? arable
land,3158000
2 : ?
meadows,620000
3 : ?
pastures,266000
4 : ?
forest,2630000
5 : ? other,1003000
RESULT:
Subgroup ha Proportion Percentage
arable land 3158000 0.411359 41.1359
meadows 620000 0.080761
8.0761
pastures 266000 0.034649
3.4649
forest 2630000 0.342582
34.2582
other 1003000 0.130650
13.0650
T o t a l 7677000 1.000000
100.0000
1.6-SELECTED
INDICATORS RELATED TO DISEASE RESISTANT ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type/form of population
resistance ? against IBR/IPV (vaccinated)
place ?
Do you want to calculate
point prevalence at a given moment
(m) or indicators related to a given
period (p) ? m
time-moment ? 1995
total number of animals
existing at the given moment ?
1988964
number of resistant animals
existing at the given moment ? 100040
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
resistant animals = 0.0503
= 5.0298 %
1.6-SELECTED INDICATORS
RELATED TO DISEASE RESISTANT ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
type/form of population
resistance ? against hog cholera (vaccinated)
place ? Ranch G.
Do you want to calculate
point prevalence at a given moment (m)
or indicators related to a given period
(p) ? p
time-period ? 2003
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 1100
total number of animals
existing in the period ? 1500
average number of animals in
the period ? 1250
number of resistant animals
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 450
number of resistant animals
existing in the period ? 670
average number of resistant
animals in the period ? 550
number of new resistant
animals in the period ? 240
number of extinct resistant
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+with immunity end) in the period ? 210
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of resistant animals =
0.4091
Period prevalence rate of
resistant animals =
0.4467
Average prevalence rate of
resistant animals =
0.4400
Incidence rate of resistant
animals to existing total =
0.1600
Incidence rate of resistant
animals to average total =
0.1920
Incidence rate of resistant
animals to initial total = 0.2182
Extinction rate of resistant
animals to existing total =
0.1400
Extinction rate of resistant
animals to average total =
0.1680
Extinction rate of resistant
animals to initial total =
0.1909
1.7-SELECTED INDICATORS
RELATED TO DISEASE SUSCEPTIBLE ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of population
susceptibility ? to IBR/IPV
place ?
Do you want to calculate point
prevalence at a given moment
(m) or indicators related to a given
period (p) ? m
time-moment ? end 1955
total number of animals
existing at the given moment ?
1988964
number of susceptible animals
existing at the given moment ? 1888924
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
susceptible animals = 0.9497
= 94.9702 %
1.7-SELECTED INDICATORS
RELATED TO DISEASE SUSCEPTIBLE ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of population
susceptibility ? to IBR/IPV
place ? Ranch B.
Do you want to calculate
point prevalence at a given moment (m)
or indicators related to a given period
(p) ? p
time-period ? 2003
total number of animals existing
at the beginning of the period ?
4500
total number of animals
existing in the period ? 6700
average number of animals in
the period ? 5200
number of susceptible animals
existing at the beginning of the period
? 3500
number of susceptible animals
existing in the period ? 4300
average number of susceptible
animals in the period ? 3900
number of new susceptible
animals in the period ? 1200
number of extinct susceptible
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+immunized) in the period ? 1500
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of susceptible animals = 0.7778
Period prevalence rate of
susceptible animals =
0.6418
Average prevalence rate of
susceptible animals =
0.7500
Incidence rate of susceptible
animals to existing total = 0.1791
Incidence rate of susceptible
animals to average total = 0.2308
Incidence rate of susceptible
animals to initial total = 0.2667
Extinction rate of
susceptible animals to existing total
= 0.2239
Extinction rate of
susceptible animals to average total
= 0.2885
Extinction rate of
susceptible animals to initial total
= 0.3333
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE
PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 1) animal
INPUT DATA:
place, period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
total number of animals ?
768000
List data, values in measure units:
1
product, measure units, total quantity ? milk,liters,3134000000
RESULT:
Product Measure Quantity Average
Units per
Animal
1
milk
liters 3134000000 4080.7292
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE PRODUCTION PER
ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 2) input
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Ranch F.,2003
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,feedlots
animal product ? meat
product measure units ? kg
total quantity of
product ? 112000
List data, values in measure
units:
1
input type, input units, input value ? forage mixture,kg,350000
2
input type, input units, input value ? money,dollars,415000
RESULT:
Input Input Input Average kg
Unit Quantity per Input Unit
1 forage mixture kg 350000 0.3200
2 money dollars 415000 0.2699
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE PRODUCTION
PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 3) space
INPUT DATA:
place, period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
animal product ? milk product measure units ? liters
space measure units ? 100 ha
List data, values in measure
units:
1
place, size, total product quantity ? Cent.Bohemia,109940,711000000
2
place, size, total product quantity ?
3
place, size, total product quantity ?
4
place, size, total product quantity ?
5
place, size, total product quantity ?
6
place, size, total product quantity ?
7
place, size, total product quantity ?
RESULT:
Place Size Quantity Average liters
100 ha of Product per 100 ha Proportion %
Cent.Bohemia 109940
711000000
6467.16 0.1513 15.1309
T o t a l 783680
4699000000 5996.07 1.0000 100.0000
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE
PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 4) time
INPUT DATA:
place, period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
animal product ? milk product measure units ? mil.lit
time measure units ? year
List data, values in measure
units:
1
subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1989,1,4893
2
subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1990,1,4802
3
subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1991,1,4125
4
subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1992,1,3699
5
subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1993,1,3350
6
subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1994,1,3134
RESULT:
Superiod Duration
Quantity Average mil.lit
year of Product
per year Proportion
%
1989 1 4893 4893.00 0.2038
20.3850
1990 1 4802 4802.00 0.2001 20.0058
1991 1 4125 4125.00 0.1719 17.1854
1992 1 3699 3699.00 0.1541 15.4106
1993 1 3350 3350.00 0.1396 13.9566
1994 1 3134 3134.00 0.1306 13.0567
T o t a l 6
24003 4000.50 1.0000 100.0000
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 1) combination of numbers of existing, new and extinct animals
INPUT DATA
place, time-period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
Question about indicator to be calculated to be left without the answer
! The other t h r e e data must be given !
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period ?
2161000
number of n e w
born and introduced animals in the period ?
669838
number of e x t i n c t (dead+slaughtered+removed)
animals in the period ?
number of animals existing at
the e n d of the period ? 2030000
RESULT:
Number of extinct animals in
the period =
800838
Number of animals existing in
the period = 2830838
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 2) animal population replacement (restocking) rates
INPUT DATA
place, time-period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period ? 2161000
number of n e w
born animals in the period ?
655000
number of animals introduced
in the period ? 14282
number of animals existing in
the period ?
2830838
average number of animals
existing in the period ?
2095500
duration (in days) of one
population reproduction cycle ? 1200
RESULT:
Replacement (restocking)
rate to initial number of animals =
0.3097
Replacement (restocking)
rate to existing number of animals =
0.2364
Replacement (restocking)
rate to average number of animals =
0.3194
Annual proportion of
reproduction cycle =
0.3042
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 3) estimate of number of animals w
i t h i n one regular generation cycle
INPUT DATA
place, time-period ? Farm
B.,2003
species, category(ies) ?
poultry,hen
number of animals at the beginning of the
period
? 12100
duration (in days) of one
regular generation (replacement) cycle ? 420
duration (in days) between
the initial and evaluated days w i t h i
n the generation cycle ? 90
RESULT:
Estimated number of animals
existing at the beginning and still
remaining +/ at the evaluated day =
9507
+/ If not removed prematurely
and in absence of migration.
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates : 4) estimate
of number of animals w i t h i n one regular
c o n t i n u i n g
production/breeding cycle
INPUT DATA
place, time-period ? Ranch D.,2004
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,feedlots
number of animals at the
beginning of the period ?
23500
duration (in days) of one
regular c o n t i n u i n g production/breeding (replacement) cycle ? 360
duration (in days) between
the initial and evaluated days w i t h i n
the production/breeding cycle
? 270
RESULT:
Estimated number of animals
existing at the beginning and still remaining +/ at the evaluated day =
5875
+/ If not removed prematurely and in absence
of migration.
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates : 5) addition
and withdrawal rates of animal population (applicable also on import/export of
animals)
INPUT DATA
place, time-period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the period
? 2161000
total number of animals
existing in the period
? 2830838
average number of animals
existing in the period
? 2095500
number of new
(born+introduced) animals in the period
? 669838
number of extinct animals
(dead+slaughtered+removed) in the
period ? 800838
RESULT:
Addition rate of animals to
existing total =
0.2366
Addition rate of animals to
average total =
0.3197
Addition rate of animals to
initial total =
0.3100
Withdrawal rate of animals
to existing total =
0.2829
Withdrawal rate of animals
to average total =
0.3822
Withdrawal rate of animals
to initial total =
0.3706
Balance between additions
and withdrawals =
-131000
Ratio of animal population
additions/withdrawals =
0.8364
Ratio of animal population
withdrawals/additions = 1.1956
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 6) simple model of animal population growth
INPUT DATA
place, time-period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
number of animals at the
beginning of the period ?
3506000
List data: subperiod, supposed number of new (born+introduced) animals, supposed
number of extinct (dead+slaughtered+removed) animals
1 : ?
1989,1143000,1289000
2 : ?
1990,1084000,1494000
3 : ?
1991,934000,1372000
4 : ?
1992,800000,1151000
5 : ? 1993,689000,820000
6 : ? 1994,655000,696000
RESULT:
SIMPLE MODEL
FOR A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N G R O W T H
Subperiod New Extinct FINAL
1 1989 1143000 1289000 3360000
2 1990 1084000 1494000 2950000
3 1991 934000 1372000 2512000
4 1992 800000 1151000 2161000
5 1993 689000 820000 2030000
6 1994 655000 696000 1989000
1.10-ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF
ANIMALS ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES (after a series of subperiods and in absence
of migration)
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Ranch F.,2004
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,<1 year age
total number of animals at
the beginning ? 820
List of data : name of subperiod, coefficient of survival probability in form of proportion :
subperiod No 1 ? <3 months,0.93
subperiod No 2 ? 3-6 months,0.95
subperiod No 3 ? 6-9 months,0.97
subperiod No 4 ? 9-12 months,0.99
RESULT:
From the initial 820 animals after 4
subperiods it can be estimated
about 696 surviving animals.
Subperiod Survival Cumulative Animals
Rate
Survival at the End
Rate of Subperiod
1 <3 months 0.9300 0.9300 763
2 3-6 months 0.9500 0.8835 724
3 6-9 months 0.9700 0.8570 703
4 9-12 months 0.9900 0.8484 696
1.11-ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER
OF WILD ANIMALS (VERTEBRATES AND INVERTEBRATES) (rough
estimates based on territory population samples investigations)
INPUT DATA:
animal species ? antelopes
place (territory), time ?
surface measure units ? km2
total territory in surface
measure units ? 1200000
List data: subterritory names, total size surface units, investigated surface size,
number of found animals:
1 . subterritory: ? Somon Y.,2500,250,390
2 . subterritory: ? Somon O.,5500,340,280
3 . subterritory: ? Somon P.,2700,170,170
4 . subterritory: ? Somon Z.,5800,450,1700
5 . subterritory: ? Somon T.,2400,120,22
RESULT:
S u r f a
c e in km2 A
n i m
a l s
Selected ------------------------------------ -----------------------------------------------
Represent. Total
Investi- Territory Found
Average Estimate Propor-
Sub- gated
Propor- per of Total tion
territory tion
km2
Somon Y. 2500 250
0.1000 390 1.6 3900 0.1165
Somon O. 5500 340
0.0618 280 0.8
4529 0.1353
Somon P. 2700 170 0.0630 170
1.0
2700
0.0806
Somon Z. 5800 450 0.0776 1700
3.8 21911
0.6544
Somon T. 2400 120
0.0500 22
0.2
440
0.0131
T O T A L 18900
1330 0.0704 2562 1.9
33481 1.0000
If this average per km2 is
applied on the total territory of 1200000 km2 then it can be estimated
about 2311579 animals (antelopes) living there.
Do you want to estimate the number of specific disease agents reservoirs among the animals of the above
species, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
ADDITIONAL INPUT DATA:
specific disease ? foot-and-mouth disease
estimated percentage of animals reservoirs (vectors) ? 3
If the estimated percentage is applied on the total territory, then it
can be roughly estimated about 69347 antelopes
- reservoirs (carriers)
of foot-and-mouth disease agents living
there.
1.12-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON CAPTURE/RECAPTURE in the absence of migration (Ref.:
Cannon,Roe)
(This capture-recapture sampling scheme is applicable on feral animals or
where mustering is difficult. )
INPUT DATA:
species ? wold board
place (territory), time ?
District C.,2003-2004
total number of
captured-marked and released animals
? 120
total number of animals
captured a f t e r a t
i m e suitable to allow for mixing of
the population, but which would preclude
many deaths/births ? 130
number of recaptured animals
of the original capture ?
110
RESULT:
Very rough estimation of the
population size = about 142 animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 1) multiform territory knowing the surface
size
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
species ? cattle surface measure unit ? km2
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit ? 25.74
total territory size in
surface measure units ? 78864
RESULT:
Rough estimation of the
population size = 2029959
animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 2) circular territory knowing the radius
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
species ? cattle surface measure unit ? km2
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit ? 25.74
length measure units? km radius in length measure units ? 20
RESULT:
Rough estimation of the
population size = 32346
animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 3) square territory knowing the side length
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
species ? cattle surface measure unit ? km2
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit ? 21.45
length measure units ? km length of square side in length measure
units ? 20
RESULT:
Territory size = 400 km2
Rough estimation of the
population size =
8580 animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 4) oblong territory knowing the length and
width
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
species ? cattle surface measure unit ? km2
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit ? 16.8
length measure units ? km oblong length in measure units ? 45 oblong width in measure units ? 21
RESULT:
Territory size = 945 km2
Rough estimation of the population
size =
15876 animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 5) volume space knowing the length, width and
depth (height)
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Pond
L.,1.7.2004
species ? carp
volume measure unit ? m3 average density of animals per one volume
measure unit ? 0.2
length measure units ? m length in measure units ? 450 width in measure units ? 120
depth (height) in measure
units
? 4
RESULT:
Volume size = 216000 m3
Rough estimation of the
population size = 43200 animals
2-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE ANALYSIS - BASIC
INDICATORS
=================================================================
1-General indicators for animal
population health analysis
2-Indicators of presence/absence of
animal health phenomena
3-Selected indicators of animal
population health (disease free)
4-Selected indicators of animal
population morbidity
5-Selected indicators of animal
population viability (survival)
6-Selected indicators of animal
population mortality
7-Selected indicators of animal disease
nidality (focality)
8-Selected indicators of animal disease
territorial distribution
9-Human/animal populations and zoonoses
Recommendation: small resulting values of the indicators to be multiplied
by 100 (per 100 basic units), by 1000 (per 1000 basic units), etc.
2.1-GENERAL INDICATORS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH ANALYSIS
INPUT DATA:
basic units (animals - total, at
r i s k; herds, flocks, farms, space units, territory units, product units and other epi.
risk units) ? cattle
epi. units (basic units with health related characteristic (e.g. disease
free, diseased, pathogen carriers, etc.)
or events ? affected by brucellosis
place ?
Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a
given period (p) ? m
time-moment ? 1.January 1961
total number of basic units
existing at the given moment ? 3030000
number of epi.
units existing at the given moment ? 3321
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
epi. units = 0.0011
= 0.1096 %
2.1-GENERAL INDICATORS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH ANALYSIS
INPUT DATA:
basic units (animals - total, at
r i s k; herds, flocks, farms, space units, territory units, product
units and other epi. risk units) ? cattle
epi. units (basic units with health related characteristic (e.g. disease
free, diseased, pathogen carriers, etc.)
or events ? affected by brucellosis
place ?
Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m)
or indicators related to a given period (p)
? p
time-period ? 1961
number of basic units
existing at the beginning of the period ? 3030000
number of basic units existing in the
period ? 4204320
average number of basic units
in the period ? 3081000
number of epi. units at the
beginning of the period ? 33211
number of epi. units existing
in the period ?
35008
average number of epi. units
in the period ?
34933
number of new epi. units in
the period ?
1797
number of extinct epi. units
in the period ? 1648
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of epi. units =
0.0110
Period (interval) prevalence
rate of epi. units = 0.0083
Average prevalence rate of
epi. units = 0.0113
Incidence rate of epi. units
to existing total = 0.0004
Incidence rate of epi. units
to average total = 0.0006
Incidence rate of epi. units
to initial total = 0.0006
Extinction rate of epi. units
to existing total =
0.0004
Extinction rate of epi. units
to average total = 0.0005
Extinction rate of epi. units
to initial total = 0.0005
Note: To get values per 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, etc. basic units,
resulting data in form of proportion to be multiplied by 100, 1000,... etc.
2.2-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
PRESENCE/ABSENCE DURATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH PHENOMENON
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) animal health phenomenon
(disease, measure, environment factor, etc.) presence/absence relation
INPUT DATA:
animal health phenomenon ? foot-and-mouth disease
place
?
time measure units ? days
total duration of p r e s e n c e of animal health phenomenon ? 145
total duration of a b s e n c e
of animal health phenomenon ?
560
number of periods of p r e s e n c e of animal health phenomenon ? 4
number of periods of a b s e n c e
of animal health phenomenon ? 5
RESULT:
Time measure units: days
Total duration: 705
Average duration of presence
of the phenomenon = 36.25
Average duration of absence of
the phenomenon = 112.00
Time proportion of presence of
the phenomenon = 0.2057
Time proportion of absence of
the phenomenon =
0.7943
Ratio of periods with/without
the phenomenon =
0.2589
Ratio of periods without/with
the phenomenon =
3.8621
2.2-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
PRESENCE/ABSENCE DURATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH PHENOMENON
This subprogramme calculates: 2) disease
persistence (endemism) index - according to Dr Astudillo
INPUT DATA:
There is a need for data on
chronological series of disease presence
and absence durations during several years measured in months.
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
space, period ? Region X. in
Brasil, 1975-1982
number of dif. durations of
disease p r e s e n c e periods ? 8
number of dif. durations of
disease a b s e n c e periods
? 7
1 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 1,2
2 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 2,2
3 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 3,2
4 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 5,1
5 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 8,1
6 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 10,2
7 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 13,1
8 : duration of p r e s e n c e (in months), frequency ? 15,1
1 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 1,5
2 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 2,1
3 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 6,2
4 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 7,1
5 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 8,1
6 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 23,1
7 : duration of a b s e n c e
(in months), frequency ? 26,1
RESULT:
Total number of
months: 156
Disease presence
omega = 0.1644
Disease absence omega = 0.1446
Sum of presence and
absence omegas = 0.3090
Disease persistence
index (endemism index) =
0.4679 = 46.7949
%
2.3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
related to d i s e a s e f r e e
animals: healthy, unaffected, pathogen free, non diseased; (salubrity,
healthiness, wholesomeness, wellness, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
type/form of animal
population health (general - crude or
particular - cause/attribute specific) ? tuberculin negative
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place ?
Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ?
m
time-moment (point in time) ?
1.1.1960
total number of animals
existing at the given moment ? 2987000
number of healthy animals
existing at the given moment ? 2358824
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
healthy animals = 0.7897
= 78.97 %
2.3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
related to d i s e a s e f r e e
animals: healthy, unaffected, pathogen free, non diseased; (salubrity,
healthiness, wholesomeness, wellness, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
type/form of animal
population health
(general - crude or
particular - cause/attribute specific) ? tuberculin negative
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place ?
Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment
(m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p
time-period ? 1960
total number of animals at
the beginning of the period ? 2987000
total number of animals
existing in the period ?
4161320
average number of animals in
the period ? 3008500
number of healthy animals at
the beginning of the period ? 2358824
number of healthy animals
existing in the period ? 3287427
average number of healthy
animals in the period ? 2365493
number of new healthy animals
in the period ? 928603
number of extinct healthy
animals (slaughtered, removed, diseased)
in the period ? 921934
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of healthy animals = 0.7897
Period prevalence rate of
healthy animals = 0.7900
Average prevalence rate of
healthy animals = 0.7863
Incidence rate of healthy
animals to existing total = 0.2232
Incidence rate of healthy
animals to average total = 0.3087
Incidence rate of healthy animals
to initial total = 0.3109
Extinction rate of healthy
animals to existing total = 0.2215
Extinction rate of healthy
animals to average total = 0.3064
Extinction rate of healthy
animals to initial total =
0.3086
Do you want to calculate the relations of the numbers of healthy
animals to those with other epi. characteristics, yes(y) or
no(n) ? y
INPUT DATA
time? 1960
number of healthy animals at
the given time ? 2987000
number of diseased animals at
the given time ? 630838
number of intrafocal animals
at the given time ?
number of animals at risk at
the given time ?
number of resistant animals
at the given time ?
number of susceptible animals
at the given time ?
number of investigated
animals at the given time ? 2769776
RESULT:
Ratio of healthy animals per
diseased one = 4.7350
Ratio of diseased animals per
healthy one = 0.2112
Ratio of healthy animals per
investigated one = 1.0784
Ratio of investigated animals
per healthy one = 0.9273
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals
(unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases,
etc. :
1) total population point prevalence rate at a given moment
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)-type/form (general
- crude or cause/attribute-specific; apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time-moment ?
total number of animals
existing at the given moment ?
2987000
number of diseased animals
existing at the given moment ? 628276
number of diseased animals
with clinical symptoms existing at the given moment ? 0
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of diseased animals = 0.2103
= 21.0337 %
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals
(unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases,
etc. :
2) total population morbidity related to a given period
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)-type/form (general
- crude or cause/attribute-specific;
apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? bovine tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time-period ?
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 2987000
total number of animals
existing in the period ?
4161320
average total number of
animals existing in the period ?
3008500
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the period ? 628276
number of diseased animals
existing in the period ? 753558
average number of diseased
animals in the period ? 629557
number of new diseased
animals in the period ? 125282
number of extinct diseased
animals
(dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period ? 124001
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate of diseased
animals =
0.2103
Period prevalence rate of
diseased animals =
0.1811
Average prevalence rate of
diseased animals =
0.2093
Incidence rate of diseased animals to
existing total =
0.0301
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to average total = 0.0416
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to initial total =
0.0419
Extinction rate of diseased animals to
existing total =
0.0298
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to average total =
0.0412
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to initial total =
0.0415
Do you want to calculate the relations of the numbers of diseased animals to those with other epi. characteristics, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
INPUT DATA:
given time ? 1.1.1960
number of diseased animals at
the given time ? 628276
number of healthy animals at
the given time ? 2358824
number of intrafocal animals
at the given time ? 520333
number of animals at risk at
the given time ? 288426
number of investigated
animals at the given time ? 2769776
RESULT:
Ratio of diseased/healthy
animals =
0.2664
Ratio of healthy/diseased
animals =
3.7544
Ratio of diseased/intrafocal
animals =
1.2074
Ratio of intrafocal/diseased
animals =
0.8282
Ratio of diseased/at risk
animals =
2.1783
Ratio of at risk/diseased
animals =
0.4591
Ratio of
diseased/investigated animals = 0.2268
Ratio of
investigated/diseased animals = 4.4085
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals
(unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases,
etc. :
3) specific transmissible
disease attack rates (intrafocal incidence)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)-type/form (general
- crude or cause/attribute-specific;
apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? FMD-all true
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time (period of the
epizootic) ? Czechoslovakia in 17 foci,1957-1960
definition of epizootic
initial stage ? up to first vet. measures
t o t a l number of
a n i m a l s at specific
risk at the b e g i n n i n g of intrafocal exposure ? 2089
t o t a l number of animals that develop d i s e a s e
during total period of specific epizootics ? 1076
diseased in i n i t i a l
stage (<total diseased)
? 125
RESULT
Specific disease attack rate
(case rate) = 0.5151
= 51.5079 %
Specific disease initial
stage attack rate = 0.0598
= 5.9837 %
Specific disease post-initial
stage attack rate (secondary attack
rate) = 0.4552 =
45.5242 %
Proportion of initial stage
attack rate = 0.1162
= 11.6171 %
Proportion of post-initial
stage attack rate = 0.8838
= 88.3829 %
Ratio initial/post-initial
stage attack rates = 1 :
7.6080
Ratio post-initial/initial
stage attack rates = 1 :
0.1314
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals
(unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases,
etc. :
4) proportional specific disease morbidity rate
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)-type/form (general
- crude or cause/attribute-specific;
apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? mastitis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows
place, time (moment or
period) ? Ranch U.,1 June 2004
number of all diseased
animals at a given time ?
450
number of animals diseased
due to specific cause(s) only at a given
time ? 78
RESULT:
Proportional specific disease
morbidity rate = 0.1733
= 17.3333 %
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals
(unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases,
etc. :
5) morbidity
indicators related to animals at
risk (exposed)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)-type/form (general
- crude or cause/attribute-specific;
apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? hog cholera
species, category(ies) ? pigs,all
place ? Region B.
Do you want to evaluate point
prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p
period ? 2004
total number of animals at
risk existing at the beginning of the
period ? 23000
total number of animals at
risk existing in the period ?
32000
average number of animals at
risk existing in the period ?
27500
number of diseased animals at
risk at beginning of the period ? 120
number of diseased animals at
risk existing in the period ? 3200
average number of diseased
animals at risk in the period ?
1800
number of new diseased animals
at risk in the period ? 3000
number of extinct (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) diseased animals at risk in the period ? 3320
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of diseased animals at risk = 0.0052
Period prevalence rate of
diseased animals at risk
= 0.1000
Average prevalence rate of
diseased animals at risk = 0.0655
Incidence rate of diseased
animals at risk to existing total = 0.0938
Incidence rate of diseased
animals at risk to average total = 0.1091
Incidence rate of diseased
animals at risk to initial total = 0.1304
Extinction rate of diseased
animals at risk to existing total =
0.1038
Extinction rate of diseased
animals at risk to average total = 0.1207
Extinction rate of diseased
animals at risk to initial total = 0.1443
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals
(unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases,
etc. :
6) animal-time incidence rate
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)-type/form (general
- crude or cause/attribute-specific;
apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? foot-and-mouth disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time-period ?
Skrivany-Czech Republic,7-30/1/1961
animal-time unit (day, week,
month, year, etc.) ? day
number of new events
(diseased animals) in the period
? 99
Do you know absolute number of animal-time units at risk, yes(y) or no(n) ? n
average number of animals at
risk ? 153
period duration in time
units ?
23
RESULT:
Animal-time incidence
rate (interval incidence density) =
0.0281 animal-day at risk
2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)
This subprogramme calculates
survival indicators according to: 1) general population aspects
INPUT DATA:
type/form of viability ?
general
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
republic,1973
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period ? 3309300
number of animals surviving
at the end of the period ? 3406300
number of animals existing in
the period ? 4408000
number of animals born (live births)
in the period ? 1315000
number of naturally dead
animals in the period ? 99000
number of animals slaughtered
in the period ? 1118000
RESULT:
Animal population
viability index =
1.0805
Animal population natality rate (crude live birth rate) =
0.2983 = 29.8321 %
Animal population survival
rate = 1.0293
= 102.9311 %
2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)
This subprogramme calculates survival
indicators according to: 2) specific health/disease aspects
INPUT DATA:
animals health status -
specify: tb free
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place, period ? Ranch T.,2004
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period ? 800
number of animals surviving
at the end of the period ? 750
number of animals existing in
the period ? 1100
number of animals born (live
births) in the period ? 300
number of naturally dead
animals in the period ? 50
number of animals slaughtered
in the period ? 30
RESULT:
Animal population
viability index =
3.7500
Animal population natality
rate (crude live birth rate) =
0.2727 = 27.2727 %
Animal population survival
rate = 0.9375
= 93.7500 %
2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)
This subprogramme calculates
survival indicators according to: 3) reproduction categories aspects
INPUT DATA:
type/form of viability ?
reproduction - general
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1973
number of animals existing in
the period ? 4408000
number of animals born (live
births) in the period ? 1315000
number of females in
reproductive age existing in the
period ? 1330000
number of weaned new born
animals in the period ?
1250000
RESULT:
Animal population fertility
rate = 0.9887
= 98.8722 %
Animal population natality
rate (crude live birth rate) =
0.2983 = 29.8321 %
Animal survival-to-weaning
rate (weaned new born animals'
rate) = 0.9506
= 95.0570 %
2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)
This subprogramme calculates
survival indicators according to: 4) breeding/production categories aspects
INPUT DATA:
type/form of viability ?
during breeding/fattening
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,young and in feedlots
place, period ? Ranch
D.,2002-2003
number of animals at the
beginning of breeding period ? 560
number of animals surviving
to the end of breeding period ? 504
number of animals at the
beginning of fattening period ? 1200
number of animals surviving
to the end of fattening period ? 1150
RESULT:
Breeding animals survival
rate = 0.9000
= 90.0000 %
Fattening animals survival
rate = 0.9583
= 95.8333 %
2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY
Do you want to evaluate general-crude
mortality / crude death rate (g) or cause/category specific death rate -
specific disease mortality (s) or
neonatal mortality rate (n) ? g
INPUT DATA:
type of mortality ? crude
(general)
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1973
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 3093000
total number of animals
existing in the period ?
4408000
average total number of
animals in the period ?
3130000
total number of naturally
dead animals in the period ?
99000
total number of slaughtered
animals in the period ?
1118000
total number of diseased
animals in the period ?
total number of diseased
animals naturally dead ?
RESULT:
Animal population total
mortality rate to initial total =
0.3935
Animal population total
mortality rate to existing total =
0.2761
Animal population total
mortality rate to average total =
0.3888
Animal population natural
mortality rate to initial total =
0.0320
Animal population natural
mortality rate to existing total = 0.0225
Animal population natural
mortality rate to average total =
0.0316
Slaughtered animals rate to
initial total =
0.3615
Slaughtered animals rate to
existing total = 0.2536
Slaughtered animals rate to
average total =
0.3572
Note: 'total mortality' is based
on a sum of dead and slaughtered animals;
'natural mortality' is based on naturally dead animals only.
2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY
Do you want to evaluate general-crude mortality / crude death rate (g)or
cause/category specific death rate - specific
disease mortality (s) or neonatal
mortality rate (n) ? s
INPUT DATA:
specific disease(s)/form ?
Aujeszky disease
place, period ?
Czechoslovakia,1973
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 6093000
total number of animals
existing in the period ?
average total number of
animals in the period ?
6179000
total number of naturally
dead animals in the period ?
250000
number of specifically
diseased animals existing in the
period ? 24143
number of naturally dead
specifically diseased animals in the
period ? 17137
number of slaughtered
specifically diseased animals in the
period ? 6500
RESULT:
Specific disease total
mortality rate to initial total =
0.0039
Specific disease total
mortality rate to average total =
0.0038
Specific disease natural
mortality rate to initial total =
0.0028
Specific disease natural
mortality rate to average total =
0.0028
Specificaly diseased
slaughtered animals rate to initial total
= 0.0011
Specificaly diseased
slaughtered animals rate to average total
= 0.0011
Specific disease case fatality
rate (lethality) =
0.7098
Specific disease proportional
case fatality rate =
0.0685
2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY
Do you want to evaluate general-crude mortality / crude death rate (g) or
cause/category specific death rate - specific disease mortality (s) or neonatal
mortality rate (n) ? n
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech
republic,1989
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,calves
number of live animal births
in the period ? 1302253
number of deaths of new born
animals in the period ? 62811
RESULT:
Animal population neonatal
mortality rate = 0.0482
= 4.82 %
2.7-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE NIDALITY (FOCALITY)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis species ? cattle
focal measure units (herds,
flocks, farms, ranches, etc.) ? ranches
definition of foci ? affected
by brucellosis
type(s)/form(s) of foci
(outbreaks) ? all (acute+chronic+in observation) place ? Czech republic
(coop.+state sectors)
territorial surface measure
units, total number ? km2,78864
Do you want to calculate
indicators related to the given moment
(m) or indicators related to the given period (p) ? m
time-moment ? 1 January 1961
number of focal measure units
existing at the given moment ? 8403
number of foci existing at
the given moment ? 518
number of animals existing in
foci at the given moment ? 110891
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
foci = 0.0616
= 6.1645 %
Average number of intrafocal
animals at the given moment =
214.1
Average density of foci per
km2 = 0.006568
Ratio of km2 per one
focus = 152.25
2.7-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE NIDALITY (FOCALITY)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
brucellosis species ? cattle
focal measure units (herds,
flocks, farms, ranches, etc.) ? ranches
definition of foci ? affected
by brucellosis
type(s)/form(s) of foci
(outbreaks) ? all (acute+chronic+in observation) place ? Czech Republic (coop.+state
sectors)
territorial surface measure
units, total number ? km2,78864
Do you want to calculate
indicators related to the given moment (m) or indicators related to the given period (p) ? p
time-period ? 1961
number of focal measure units
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 8403
number of foci existing at
the beginning of the period ? 518
number of focal measure units
existing in the period ? 8403
number of foci existing in
the period ? 559
average number of focal
measure units in the period ? 7486
average number of foci in the
period ? 473
number of new foci in the
period ? 41
number of extinct foci in the
period ? 131
number of animals existing in
foci in the period ? 120321
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of foci =
0.0616
Period prevalence rate of
foci =
0.0665
Average prevalence rate of
foci = 0.0632
Incidence rate of foci to
existing total = 0.0049
Extinction rate of foci to
existing total = 0.0156
Average density of foci per
km2 = 0.0071
Average number of intrafocal
animals in the given period = 215.2
2.8 SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE
TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
INPUT DATA:
place ? 1.1.1962
disease(s) ? brucellosis (all forms)
species ? cattle
category(ies) ? all
surface measure units ? km2 Czechoslovakia
surface of evaluated territory ?
127870 km2
Do you want to calculate indicators related to the given moment (m) or indicators related to the
given period (p) ? m
time-moment ? 1.1.1962
affected zones size existing at the given moment : 25000
number of animals existing in affected zones at the given moment ?
960000
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
affected area = 0.1955
= 19.5511 %
Average number of animals in
affected area per surface unit =
38.40
2.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION (villages, districts, regions, provinces,
counties, zones, countries, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)/form ? screwworm
species, category(ies) ?
mammals,all
place (territory) ? Country
L.
surface measure units ? km2
total number of surface
measure units of the territory ? 65000
Do you want to calculate
indicators related to the given moment (m) or indicators related to the given period (p) ? p
time-period ? 1988
number of surface units of
affected area at the beginning of the
period ? 13000
number of surface units of
affected area existing in the period
? 15600
average number of measure
units of affected area in the period
? 14500
number of surface units of new affected
area in the period ? 2600
number of surface units of
extinct affected area (become free) in
the period ? 200
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of affected area =
0.2000
Period prevalence rate of
affected area =
0.2400
Average prevalence rate of
affected area =
0.2231
Incidence rate of affected
area =
0.0400
Extinction rate of affected
area (recovery rate) = 0.0031
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) human population density and distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
Czech Republic,1.1.1986
space measure units ? km2
List data :
1 subterritory, size, persons ? Prague
City,496,1193513
2 subterritory, size, persons ?
Cent.Bohemia,10994,1137086
3 subterritory, size, persons ? South
Bohemia,11345,695066
4 subterritory, size, persons ? West
Bohemia,10875,873239
5 subterritory, size, persons ? North
Bohemia,7819,1183145
6 subterritory, size, persons ? East
Bohemia,11240,1244452
7 subterritory, size, persons ? South
Moravia,15028,2058020
8 subterritory, size, persons ? North
Moravia,11067,1958877
RESULT:
Subterritory km2
Number of Average Proportion Percentage
Inhabitants Number
Prague City 496
1193513
2406.28
0.115389 11.5389
Cent.Bohemia 10994
1137086 103.43
0.109934 10.9934
South Bohemia 11345
695066 61.27
0.067199 6.7199
West Bohemia 10875
873239 80.30
0.084425 8.4425
North Bohemia 7819
1183145 151.32
0.114386 11.4386
East Bohemia 11240
1244452 110.72
0.120314 12.0314
South Moravia 15028
2058020 136.95
0.198969
19.8969
North Moravia 11067
1958877 177.00
0.189384 18.9384
T o t a l 78864
10343398 131.15
1.000000 100.0000
2.9- HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) human population categories structure
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
Czech Republic,1982
category according to ? age
of man
List data :
1 category, number of persons ? 0-14
years,1120000
2 category, number of persons ? 15-59
years,2860000
3 category, number of persons ? 60+
years,1220000
RESULT:
Category Number of Proportion Percentage
Inhabitants
0-14 years 1120000 0.215385 21.5385
15-59 years 2860000 0.550000 55.0000
60+ years 1220000 0.234615 23.4615
T o t a l 5200000 1.000000
100.0000
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) ratios of animal/human populations
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
Czech Republic,1.1.1996
animal species ? cattle
number of animals ? 3462000
number of persons ? 10343398
RESULT:
Ratio of animals per one
person = 0.334706
: 1
Ratio of persons per one
animal = 2.987694
: 1
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme
calculates: 4) ratios of animals/humans diseased by zoonoses
INPUT DATA
place (territory), time ?
Czechoslovakia,1961
zoonotic disease(s) ? bovine
brucellosis indicator ? new cases
animal species ? cattle
number of animals ? 4518000
number of diseased
animals ? 4279
number of persons ? 15000000
number of diseased
persons ? 110
RESULT:
Ratio of diseased animals per
one person = 0.0003
: 1
Ratio of diseased animals per
one diseased person = 38.9000
: 1
Ratio of diseased persons per
one animal = 0.0000
: 1
Ratio of diseased persons per
one diseased animal = 0.0257
: 1
3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH STRUCTURES
=================================================================
1-Animal
population epizootiological structure
2-Animal population disease territorial
structure
3-Animal population diseases foci
(outbreaks) types' structure
4-Territory epizootiological structure
5-Morbidity, mortality and nidality
structure by causes/forms
6-Disease occurrence according to
animal species and categories
7-Disease occurrence according to
breeding/production conditions
8-Disease occurrence according to
ecological conditions
9-Tables of animal disease occurrence
acc. to dif. criteria
10-Tables of animal population, farms
and territory epi. structure
11-Tables of disease foci and
intrafocal structure
12-Proportions of disease different
forms/symptoms findings
13-Proportions of specific etiological
agents/antibodies findings
3.1-ANIMAL POPULATION
EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
place, time ? Czechoslovakia
(coop+state sectors),1.1.1964
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
total number of animals of a given
population ? 3849365
number of
epizootiologically h e a l t h y animals
? 2133275
number of exposed
epizootiologically healthy animals ?
940006
number of directly exposed
epiz. healthy animals ? 300000
number of animals
epizootiologically i n d e t e r m i n a
t e with clinical symptoms ? 500
number of
epizootiologically a f f e c t e d ( d i s e a s e d ) animals ? 438173
number of animals
epizootiologically affected (diseased)
with clinical symptoms ? 4300
RESULT:
Number Proportion
Epizootiologically healthy animals 2133275 0.5542
Non-exposed epi.healthy
animals 1193269
0.3100
Exposed epi.healthy
animals 940006 0.2442
Indirectly exposed healthy
animals 640006
0.1663
Directly exposed healthy
animals 300000 0.0779
Epizootiologically indeterminate animals 1277917 0.3320
Epiz.indeterminate anim.
without symptoms 1277417
0.3319
Epiz.indeterminate animals
with symptoms 500 0.0001
Epizootiologically affected (diseased) animals 438173 0.1138
Epiz.affected animals without
symptoms 433873 0.1127
Epiz.affected animals with
symptoms 4300 0.0011
T o t a l 3849365 1.0000
3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) diseased animals' territorial density
and distribution
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), time ?
Czech Republic,1 July 1060
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
space measure units ? km2
List data :
1 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? Central Bohemia,11490,146838
2 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? South Bohemia,11345,70121
3 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? West Bohemia,10875,89458
4 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? North Bohemia,7819,90948
5 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? East Bohemia,11240,70011
6 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? South Moravia,15028,89014
7 subterritory, size, diseased
animals ? North Moravia,11067,78012
RESULT:
Subterritory km2
Diseased Average Proportion Percentage
Animals Number
of Total of
Total
Central Bohemia 11490
146838
12.78
0.231459 23.1459
South Bohemia 11345 70121 6.18 0.110531 11.0531
West Bohemia 10875 89458 8.23
0.141012 14.1012
North Bohemia 7819 90948 11.63
0.143360 14.3360
East Bohemia 11240 70011
6.23
0.110357 11.0357
South Moravia 15028
89014 5.92
0.140312 14.0312
North Moravia 11067 78012 7.05
0.122969 12.2969
T o t a l 78864 634402
8.04
1.000000 100.0000
3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE
This subprogramme calculates: 2) farms - diseased animals' average number
and territorial distribution
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), time ?
Czech Republic -cooperatives, 1.1.1964
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis
List data :
1 subter., farms, diseased
animals ? Central Bohemia,2600,64960
2 subter., farms, diseased
animals ? South Bohemia,1474,21126
3 subter., farms, diseased
animals ? West Bohemia,916,15754
4 subter., farms, diseased
animals ? North Bohemia,562,26580
5 subter., farms, diseased
animals ? East Bohemia,2853,15302
6 subter., farms, diseased animals
? South Moravia,1831,16768
7 subter., farms, diseased
animals ? North Moravia,2498,19685
RESULT:
Subterritory Farms
Diseased Average Proportion
Percentage
Animals
Number
of Total of
Total
Central Bohemia 2600 64960 24.98
0.204178
20.4178
South Bohemia 1474 21126 14.33 0.115753
11.5753
West Bohemia 916
15754 17.20
0.071933 7.1933
North Bohemia 562 26580 47.30
0.044134 4.4134
East Bohemia 2853
15302 5.36 0.224046 22.4046
South Moravia 1831 16768 9.16
0.143788 14.3788
North Moravia 2498 19685 7.88
0.196168
19.6168
T o t a l 12734 180175 14.15 1.000000
100.0000
3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE
This subprogramme calculates: 3) diseased
animals' simple territorial distribution
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), time ?
Czech Republic, 1.7.1960
species, category(ies) ? cattle,all disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis
List data:
1 subterritory, diseased animals
? Central Bohemia,146838
2 subterritory, diseased animals
? South Bohemia,70121
3 subterritory, diseased animals
? West Bohemia,89458
4 subterritory, diseased animals
? North Bohemia,90948
5 subterritory, diseased animals
? East Bohemia,70011
6 subterritory, diseased animals
? South Moravia,89014
7 subterritory, diseased animals
? North Moravia,78012
RESULT:
Subterritory Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals of Total of Total
Central Bohemia 146838 0.231459 23.1459
South Bohemia 70121 0.110531 11.0531
West Bohemia 89458 0.141012 14.1012
North Bohemia 90948 0.143360 14.3360
East Bohemia 70011 0.110357 11.0357
South Moravia 89014
0.140312 14.0312
North Moravia 78012
0.122969 12.2969
T o t a l 634402 1.000000 100.0000
3.3-ANIMAL DISEASE FOCI
(OUTBREAKS) TYPES' STRUCTURE
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis species ? cattle
type(s)/form(s) of foci
(outbreaks) ? all (acute+chronic+in observation)
focal measure units (animal
housings, herds/flocks areas, farms, ranches, villages, etc.) ? ranches
place ? Czechoslovakia time-moment ? 1.7.1960
total number of foci existing
at the given moment ? 797
number of foci with affected (clinically +
subclinically) animals at the given
moment ? 546
number of foci with
subclinically only affected animals at
the given moment ? 245
number of foci without
susceptible animals (depopulated) at the
given moment ? 0
RESULT:
Characteristics Number
Proportion Percentage
With affected animals 546
0.6851
68.5069
clinically 301 0.3777 37.7666
subclinically only 245
0.3074
30.7403
With non-affected animals
(in
observation) 251
0.3149 31.4931
Without susceptible animals
(depopulated) 0
0.0000 0.0000
T o t a l 797
1.0000 100.0000
3.4-TERRITORY EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL
STRUCTURE (villages, districts, regions,
provinces, counties, countries, zones, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
territory ? Province C. time-moment ? 1.1.2004
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
ruminants,all
surface measure units ? km2
total number of surface
measure units of the territory ? 34000
total number of specifically
diseased animals in the territory ? 438173
number of surface measure
units of specific disease(s) free
zones ? 29000
number of surface measure
units of exposed specific disease(s)
free zones (at risk) ? 3500
number of surface measure
units of zones affected by specific
disease(s) ? 1500
RESULT:
Average density of specifically
diseased animals per one km2 = 12.89
km2
Proportion %
Disease(s) free zones 29000 0.8529
85.29
Non-exposed free zones (out
of risk) 25500 0.7500
75.00
Exposed free zones (at
risk) 3500 0.1029
10.29
Indeterminate zone 3500 0.1029
10.29
Affected zones 1500
0.0441
4.41
T o t a l 34000 1.0000 100.00
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m) or nidality/focality (f) or affected
territory (t) ? d
INPUT DATA:
type/form of morbidity ?
mastitis species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows
place, time ? Czechoslovakia
(coop+state sectors),31.12.1976
List data :
1 cause/form, number of cases ? path. without symptoms,14355
2 cause/form, number of cases ? latent mastitis,234537
3 cause/form, number of cases ? acute mastitis,28029
4 cause/form, number of cases ? chronic mastitis,70906
RESULT:
Cause/form Number of Proportion Percentage
Cases/units
1 path. without sympto 14355
0.0413
4.1271
2 latent mastitis 234537
0.6743
67.4292
3 acute mastitis 28029
0.0806
8.0583
4 chronic mastitis 70906
0.2039
20.3854
T o t a l 347827
1.0000
100.0000
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m) or nidality/focality (f)
or affected territory (t) ? m
INPUT DATA:
type/form of mortality ?
according to etiological agents
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
place, time ?
Czechoslovakia,1962
List data:
1 cause/form, number of cases ? infections,76701
2 cause/form, number of cases ? internal dis.,83089
3 cause/form, number of cases ? gastro-int.d.,41685
4 cause/form, number of cases ? nutrit./tox.,15966
5 cause/form, number of cases ? trauma,10707
6 cause/form, number of cases ? external d.,4081
7 cause/form, number of cases ? reproduction d.,3457
8 cause/form, number of cases ? parasitic dis.,448
9 cause/form, number of cases ? other diseases,15833
RESULT:
Cause/form Number of Proportion Percentage
Cases/units
1 infections 76701
0.3044
30.4409
2 internal dis. 83089 0.3298 32.9761
3 gastro-int.d. 41685
0.1654 16.5438
4 nutrit./tox. 15966
0.0634
6.3365
5 trauma 10707 0.0425 4.2494
6 external d. 4081
0.0162 1.6197
7 reproduction d. 3457 0.0137
1.3720
8 parasitic dis. 448
0.0018
0.1778
9 other diseases 15833 0.0628
6.2838
T o t a l 251967
1.0000
100.0000
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m)
or nidality/focality (f) or affected
territory (t) ? f
INPUT DATA:
type/form of nidality ?
regions with bovine brucellosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ?
Czechoslovakia,1.7.1960
List data :
1 cause/form, number of cases ? prevalence 0-5 %,38
2 cause/form, number of cases ? prevalence 5-10 %,6
3 cause/form, number of cases ? prevalence 10-15 %,2
4 cause/form, number of cases ? prevalence 15-20 %,5
5 cause/form, number of cases ? prevalence 20-25 %,1
RESULT:
Cause/form Number of Proportion Percentage
Cases/units
1
prevalence 0-5 % 38 0.7308 73.0769
2
prevalence 5-10 % 6
0.1154 11.5385
3
prevalence 10-15 % 2
0.0385 3.8462
4
prevalence 15-20 % 5
0.0962 9.6154
5
prevalence 20-25 % 1
0.0192 1.9231
T o t a l 52
1.0000 100.0000
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m)
or nidality/focality (f) or affected
territory (t) ? t
INPUT DATA:
type/form of affected
territory ? by foot-and-mouth disease
place, time ? Country V.,2002
space measure units ? km2
List data :
1 cause/form, number of space units ? acute course,1500
2 cause/form, number of space units ? chronic course,3000
3 cause/form, number of space units ? serol.evidence,7500
4 cause/form, number of space units ? free,9000
RESULT:
Cause/form Number of Proportion Percentage
km2
1 acute course 1500
0.0714 7.1429
2 chronic course 3000
0.1429
14.2857
3 serol.evidence 7500 0.3571 35.7143
4 free 9000
0.4286
42.8571
T o t a l 21000 1.0000 100.0000
3.6-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO ANIMAL SPECIES AND CATEGORIES
This subprogramme calculates disease occurrence according to 1) species
(host range)
INPUT DATA:
disease ? rabies (WHO Rabies
Bulletin Europe - 4/92
place, time ? Europe,1992
List data:
name of the species, number of diseased animals:
1 : ? dog,778
2 : ? cat,622
3 : ? cattle,919
4 : ? horse,52
5 : ?
sheep/goat,315
6 : ? other
dom.anim.,17
7 : ? fox,7318
8 : ? badger,165
9 : ? other
mustel,265
10 : ? deer,251
11 : ? other wild
an.,361
RESULT:
Species Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
dog 778
0.070325 7.0325
cat 622
0.056223
5.6223
cattle 919 0.083070 8.3070
horse 52 0.004700 0.4700
sheep/goat 315 0.028473 2.8473
other dom.anim. 17
0.001537 0.1537
fox 7318 0.661484 66.1484
badger 165 0.014915 1.4915
other mustel 265 0.023954 2.3954
deer 251 0.022688 2.2688
other wild an. 361
0.032631 3.2631
T o t a l 11063
1.000000 100.0000
3.6-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO ANIMAL SPECIES AND CATEGORIES
This subprogramme calculates disease occurrence according to 2) categories
Animal categories according
to: breed, age, gender, weight,
physiological stage, nutrition status, immunity
status, type/level of productivity, type of breeding, type of exploitation,
performance, production stage, technology,
concentration, etc.
INPUT DATA:
disease ? bovine tuberculosis
place, time ?
Czechoslovakia,1964
species, category according
to ? cattle,age/sex
List data:
name of the subgroup, number of diseased animals:
1 : ? cows,31412
2 : ? heifers >1
year,8556
3 : ? heifers 3-12
m.,5207
4 : ? calves,6756
5 : ? others,32202
RESULT:
Category Diseased Proportion Percentage
Subgroup Animals
cows 31412
0.373361 37.3361
heifers >1 year 8556 0.101696 10.1696
heifers 3-12 m. 5207 0.061890 6.1890
calves 6756
0.080301 8.0301
others 32202
0.382751 38.2751
T o t a l 84133 1.000000
100.0000
3.7-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
ACCORDING TO BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS
(according to: animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration,
housing/herd/flock/farm size, management, sector, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis species ? cattle
place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1.1.1961
type of conditions ?
production sector criterion for subgrouping ? sector
name of the subgroup, number of
diseased animals:
1 : ?
cooperatives,38845
2 : ? state
ranches,59605
3 : ? other state
sect.,6148
4 : ? private,635
RESULT:
Subgroup Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
cooperatives 38845 0.369133
36.9133
state ranches 59605 0.566410
56.6410
other state sect 6148
0.058423 5.8423
private 635 0.006034 0.6034
T o t a l 105233 1.000000
100.0000
3.7-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
ACCORDING TO BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS
(according to: animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration,
housing/herd/flock/farm size, management, sector, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
spongiform encephalopathy species ? cattle
place, time ? United
Kingdom,1992
type of conditions ? herd
size
criterion for subgrouping ? herd
size
name of the subgroup, number of
diseased animals:
1 : ? size
<50,779
2 : ? size
50-99,2384
3 : ? size
100-199,2615
4 : ? size
>199,425
RESULT:
Subgroup Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
size <50 779
0.125584 12.5584
size 50-99 2384 0.384330 38.4330
size 100-199 2615
0.421570 42.1570
size >199 425 0.068515
6.8515
T o t a l 6203 1.000000
100.0000
3.8-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
ACCORDING TO ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
[atmospherical, geospherical, hydrospherical and biospherical
(flora/fauna) factors; hygiene, etc.]
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? Thelaziasis
rhodesi (acc.Prof.Hovorka) species ? cattle
place, time ? Carpat yone in
Slovakia,1967
type of ecological conditions
? clima criterion for subgrouping ? climatic zones
name of the subgroup, number of diseased animals:
1 : ? lowland
pastures,113
2 : ? lowland
wood,207
3 : ?
under-mount.,190
4 : ? mountains,62
RESULT:
Subgroup Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
lowland pastures 113 0.197552 19.7552
lowland wood 207
0.361888 36.1888
under-mount. 190
0.332168 33.2168
mountains 62 0.108392 10.8392
T o t a l 572 1.000000 100.0000
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO SPECIES,
CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates space/time tables of: 1) population
disease occurrence according to species
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) ?
Central Europe,1992
disease ? rabies in wild
animals
name of the species 1 ?
fox
name of the species 2 ?
badger
name of the species 3 ?
oth.mustel
name of the species 4 ?
deer
name of the species 5 ? others
data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s
measure units ? disease cases
Row names, values of individual
columns following this sequence:
Subterritory, fox, badger, oth.mustel, deer, others,
1 row: ?
Czechoslov.,775,8,19,4,1
2 row: ? Austria,17,0,0,0,0
3 row: ?
Germany,1011,24,51,56,9
4 row: ? Hungary,694,1,6,3,3
5 row: ?
Poland,2079,25,84,113,246
RESULT:
Subterritory T o t a l fox
badger oth.mustel deer
others
Czechoslov. 807
775
8
19
4 1
Austria 17
17
0 0
0 0
Germany 1151
1011 24
51 56
9
Hungary 707
694
1 6
3 3
Poland 2547
2079 25
84 113
246
T o t a l 5229
4576 58 160
176 259
Proportion 1.0000 0.8751
0.0111 0.0306
0.0337
0.0495
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO SPECIES,
CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates
space/time tables of: 3) population disease occurrence according to
ecological conditions
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) ?
Province T.,1999
disease ? trypanosomiasis species ? cattle,all
name of the conditions 1 ?
forest
name of the conditions 2 ?
woodland
name of the conditions 3 ?
savana
name of the conditions 4 ?
grassland
name of the conditions 5 ?
steppe
data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s
measure units ? diseased
animals
number of rows ? 4
Row names, values of individual columns following this sequence: Subterritory, forest, woodland, savana,
grassland, steppe,
1 row: ? Region
O.,15,45,567,780,34
2 row: ? Region
U.,20,56,789,980,58
3 row: ? Region
C.,0,0,346,234,12
4 row: ? Region
K.,34,12,432,670,45
RESULT:
Subterritory T o t a l
forest woodland
savana grassland steppe
Region O. 1441
15
45
567
780 34
Region U. 1903 20
56 789
980 58
Region C. 592
0 0
346 234
12
Region K. 1193
34 12
432 670
45
T o t a l 5129
69 113
2134 2664
149
Proportion 1.0000
0.0135 0.0220 0.4161
0.5194
0.0291
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO SPECIES, CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates space/time tables of: 4) population
disease occurrence according to economic conditions
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) ? Czech
republic,1.1.1960-1.1.1965
disease ? bovine brucellosis species ? cattle
number of conditions (for table head) ? 4
name of the conditions 1 ?
Private
name of the conditions 2 ?
Cooper.
name of the conditions 3 ?
StateFarm
name of the conditions 4 ?
Other SF
data according to
subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t
measure units ? diseased
animals
number of rows ? 6
Row names, values of individual
columns following this sequence:
Time, Private, Cooper., StateFarm, Other SF,
1 row: ?
1.1.1960,848,39044,51373,7371
2 row: ?
1.1.1961,635,39845,59605,6148
3 row: ?
1.1.1962,228,36277,43299,8597
4 row: ? 1.1.1963,80,25095,20994,20791
5 row: ?
1.1.1964,28,9947,7530,10782
6 row: ? 1.1.1965,0,0,0,0
RESULT:
Time T o t a l Private Cooper.
StateFarm Other SF
1.1.1960 98636 848 39044
51373 7371
1.1.1961 106233 635 39845
59605 6148
1.1.1962 88401 228 36277
43299 8597
1.1.1963 66960 80 25095
20994 20791
1.1.1964 28287 28 9947
7530 10782
1.1.1965 0
0
0 0 0
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPI.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 1) total, free and diseased animals
INPUT DATA
title ? STRUCTURE OF CATTLE
POPULATION ACCORDING TO TUBERCULOSIS
disease ? bovine tuberculosis species ? cattle
place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1961-1967
number
of rows ? 7
data according to
subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t
Row names, values of individual columns following this sequence: Time, total animals, disease free animals,
diseased animals
1 row: ?
1.1.1961,4387350,379094,829095
2 row: ?
1.1.1962,4518291,538404,734850
3 row: ?
1.1.1963,4507175,821142,589736
4 row: ?
1.1.1964,4479806,1193269,438173
5 row: ?
1.1.1965,4436166,1436824,312123
6 row: ?
1.1.1966,4388984,1879248,194489
7 row: ? 1.1.1967,4462073,2350429,95829
RESULT:
Time T o t a l Dis. Free
Proportion Indeterm. Affected
Proportion
1.1.1961 4387350 379094
0.0864
3179161 829095
0.1890
1.1.1962 4518291 538404
0.1192 3245037
734850 0.1626
1.1.1963 4507175 821142
0.1822
3096297 589736
0.1308
1.1.1964 4479806 1193269
0.2664 2848364
438173 0.0978
1.1.1965 4436166 1436824
0.3239 2687219 312123
0.0704
1.1.1966 4388984 1879248
0.4282 2315247
194489 0.0443
1.1.1967 4462073 2350429
0.5268 2015815
95829 0.0215
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPI.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 2) total, free and affected herds
INPUT DATA
title ? CATTLE HERDS
STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS
disease ? bovine tuberculosis species
? cattle
place, time ? Czech Republic,1960-1966
number of rows ? 7
data according to
subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t
Row names, values of individual columns following this sequence: Time, total herds, disease free herds,
affected herds
1 row: ?
1.1.1960,12154,1518,10636
2 row: ?
1.1.1961,10625,1557,9068
3 row: ?
1.1.1962,7191,1857,5334
4 row: ?
1.1.1963,6138,2207,3931
5 row: ? 1.1.1964,5797,2692,3105
6 row: ?
1.1.1965,5385,3056,2329
7 row: ?
1.1.1966,5059,3465,1594
RESULT:
Time T o t a l Dis. Free
Proportion Indeterm.
Affected Proportion
1.1.1960 12154 1518 0.1249 0 10636
0.8751
1.1.1961 10625 1557 0.1465
0
9068 0.8535
1.1.1962 7191 1857
0.2582 0 5334
0.7418
1.1.1963 6138 2207
0.3596 0
3931 0.6404
1.1.1964 5797 2692
0.4644 0
3105 0.5356
1.1.1965 5385 3056 0.5675
0
2329 0.4325
1.1.1966 5059 3465 0.6849
0
1594 0.3151
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 3) total, free and affected farms
INPUT DATA
title ? FARM STRUCTURE ACCORDING
TO TUBERCULOSIS OF CATTLE
disease ? bovine tuberculosis species ? cattle
place, time ? Czech Republic,1963-1966
number of rows ? 4
data according to
subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t
Row names, values of individual columns following this sequence: Time, total farms, disease free farms,
affected farms
1 row: ?
1.1.1963,15785,6428,9357
2 row: ? 1.1.1964,16568,7957,8611
3 row: ?
1.1.1965,16192,6886,9306
4 row: ?
1.1.1966,15708,8439,7269
RESULT:
Time T o t a l Dis. Free Proportion
Indeterm. Affected Proportion
1.1.1963 15785 6428
0.4072
0 9357
0.5928
1.1.1964 16568 7957 0.4803
0 8611
0.5197
1.1.1965 16192 6886 0.4253
0
9306 0.5747
1.1.1966 15708 8439 0.5372
0 7269
0.4628
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPI.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 4) total, free and affected territory
INPUT DATA
title ? TERRITORY STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO TICK-BORN
ENCEPHALITIS
disease ? viral tick-borne
encephalitis species
? small wild rhodents
place, time ? Province O.,2003
number of rows ? 5
data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s
surface measure units ? km2
Row names, values of individual
columns following this sequence: Territory, total area, disease free area,
affected area
1 row: ? Region
G.,5400,3400,1500
2 row: ? Region D.,3200,1560,320
3 row: ? Region
L.,4890,3280,120
4 row: ? Region
F.,9800,5600,2800
5 row: ? Region
O.,4500,340,3200
RESULT:
Territory T o t a l Dis. Free
Proportion Indeterm. Affected
Proportion
Region G. 5400 3400
0.6296 500 1500
0.2778
Region D. 3200 1560 0.4875
1320
320 0.1000
Region L. 4890 3280
0.6708
1490
120 0.0245
Region F. 9800 5600
0.5714 1400 2800 0.2857
Region O. 4500 340 0.0756
960
3200 0.7111
T o t a l 27790
14180 0.5103
5670
7940
0.2857
3.11-TABLES OF DISEASE FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of the tables according to space
and time, with following structure: 1) foci: total, with diseased animals
clinically, subclinically only,
in observation and
depopulated
INPUT DATA
title ? BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS FOCI STRUCTURE
disease ? brucellosis (B.abortus
Bang) species ? cattle
place, time ? Province T.31.12.1989
foci form/type ? all
data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s
number of rows ? 5
Row names, values of individual
columns following this sequence: Territory, f o c i total, foci with animals diseased
clinically, diseased subclinically only,
depopulated foci
1 row: ? Region G.,23,12,11,0
2 row: ? Region F.,13,2,5,3
3 row: ? Region J.,34,14,13,2
4 row: ? Region K.,43,12,14,3
5
row: ? Region S-,4,2,1,0
RESULT:
Territory T o t a l With
Animals Diseased In Depopulated
-----------------------------------
Observation
Clinically Subclin. only
Region G. 23 12
11
0 0
Region F. 13 2
5
3 3
Region J. 34 14 13
5
2
Region K. 43 12
14
14
3
Region S- 4
2
1
1 0
T o t a l 117
42
44
23 8
P r o p o r t i o n s:
Territory T o t a l With
Animals Diseased In
Depopulated
--------------------------------- Observation
Clinically
Subclin. only
Region G. 1.0000 0.5217 0.4783 0.0000
0.0000
Region F. 1.0000 0.1538
0.3846 0.2308 0.2308
Region J. 1.0000
0.4118 0.3824
0.1471 0.0588
Region K. 1.0000
0.2791 0.3256
0.3256 0.0698
Region S- 1.0000 0.5000 0.2500 0.2500
0.0000
T o t a l 1.0000
0.3590 0.3761
0.1966
0.0684
3.11-TABLES OF DISEASE FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of the tables according to space
and time, with following structure: 2) intrafocal animals: total, affected
clinically and subclinically,
indeterminate and disease
free
INPUT DATA
title ? INTRAFOCAL
EPIZOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE OF CACTLE IN IBR/IPV FOCI
disease ? IBR/IPV species ? cattle
place, time ? Region R.,1998
disease form/type ? all
data according to
subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t
number of rows ? 4
Row names, values of individual columns following this sequence: Time, intrafocal a n i m a l s
total, diseased clinically,
subclinically, disease free
1 row: ? I Q 1998,12890,789,8900,980
2 row: ? II Q 1998,10456,678,6532,1200
3 row: ? III Q 1998,9876,590,6200,800
4 row: ? IV Q 1990,9234,789,5900,1200
RESULT:
Time T o t a l D
i s e
a s e d Indetermi- Disease Free
Clinically Subclin. only nate
I Q 1998 12890 789 8900 2221 980
II Q 1998 10456 678 6532 2046
1200
III Q 1998 9876 590 6200 2286
800
IV Q 1990 9234 789 5900 1345
1200
P r o p o r t i o n s:
Time T o t a l D
i s e
a s e d Indetermi- Disease Free
Clinically Subclin. only nate
I Q 1998 1.0000 0.0612 0.6905 0.1723
0.0760
II Q 1998 1.0000
0.0648 0.6247 0.1957 0.1148
III Q 199 1.0000
0.0597 0.6278 0.2315 0.0810
IV Q 1990 1.0000 0.0854 0.6389 0.1457 0.1300
3.12-PROPORTIONS OF DISEASE
DIFFERENT FORMS/SYMPTOMS FINDINGS
INPUT DATA:
disease ? tuberculosis
(macroscopic findings in abattoirs)
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ?
Czechoslovakia,1962
investigations intravitam (i)
or postmortem (p) ? p
total number of
investigated d i s e a s e d animals
? 236667
List data :
1 finding name, number of cases ? pneumonal
tbc,225899
2 finding name, number of cases ? liver
tbc,53771
3 finding name, number of cases ? intestinal
tbc,66159
RESULT:
Finding Number of Total F i n d i n g s Total
Diseased Animals
Cases Proportion Percentage
Proportion Percentage
pneumonal tbc 225899 0.6532
65.3210
0.9545
95.4501
liver tbc 53771 0.1555 15.5484
0.2272 22.7201
intestinal tbc 66159
0.1913 19.1306 0.2795
27.9545
T o t a l 345829 1.0000
100.0000
3.12-PROPORTIONS OF DISEASE
DIFFERENT FORMS/SYMPTOMS FINDINGS
INPUT DATA:
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ? Czechoslovakia
(selected outbreaks),1957-1960
investigations intravitam (i) or postmortem (p) ? i
total number of
investigated d i s e a s e d animals
? 1403
List data:
1 form/symptom, number of cases ? anorexia,1401
2 form/symptom, number of cases ? fever,1058
3 form/symptom, number of cases ? mouth
changes,1336
4 form/symptom, number of cases ? muzzle
changes,642
5 form/symptom, number of cases ? udder
changes,253
6 form/symptom, number of cases ? foot
changes,175
7 form/symptom, number of cases ? other
symptoms,20
RESULT:
Form/symptom Number of Total F i n d i n g s Total Diseased Animals
Cases
Proportion Percentage Proportion
Percentage
anorexia 1401
0.2868
28.6796
0.9986
99.8574
fever 1058
0.2166 21.6581 0.7541
75.4098
mouth changes 1336
0.2735 27.3490
0.9522
95.2245
muzzle changes 642 0.1314
13.1423 0.4576
45.7591
udder changes 253 0.0518
5.1791 0.1803
18.0328
foot changes 175 0.0358 3.5824 0.1247
12.4733
other symptoms 20 0.0041
0.4094 0.0143
1.4255
T o t a l 4885 1.0000
100.0000
3.13-PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIC
ETIOLOGICAL AGENTS/ANTIBODIES' FINDINGS
INPUT DATA:
etiological group ?
Salmonella sp.
species, category(ies) ?
domestic animals,all
place, time ? Czech
Republic,1986
etiological agents findings (e) or positive
serological findings (s) ? e
List name and numbers:
1 etiolology, investigations,
findings ? S. in cattle,27250,83
2 etiolology, investigations,
findings ? S. calves,25820,603
3 etiolology, investigations,
findings ? S. in pigs,74243,514
4 etiolology, investigations,
findings ? S. in sheep,755,2
5 etiolology, investigations,
findings ? S. in poultry,2213,18
RESULT:
N u m b e r o f
Total
F i n d i n g s'
Tests Findings % Proportion Percentage
S. in cattle 27250
83 0.3046
0.0680 6.8033
S. calves 25820
603 2.3354
0.4943 49.4262
S. in pigs 74243
514 0.6923 0.4213 42.1311
S. in sheep 755
2 0.2649 0.0016 0.1639
S. in poultry 2213
18 0.8134 0.0148 1.4754
T o t a l 130281
1220 1.0000 100.0000
3.13-PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIC
ETIOLOGICAL AGENTS/ANTIBODIES' FINDINGS
INPUT DATA:
etiological group ?
infectious diseases
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ? Czech
Republic,2000
etiological agents findings
(e) or positive serological findings
(s) ? s
List names and numbers:
1 spec. dis. test,
investigations, findings ? brucellosis,363479,0
2 spec. dis. test,
investigations, findings ? paratuberculosis,5580,44
3 spec. dis. test, investigations,
findings ? IBR/IPV,124346,4002
4 spec. dis. test,
investigations, findings ? enz.leukosis,251647,0
RESULT:
N u m
b e r o f Total F
i n d i n g s'
Tests
Findings % Proportion Percentage
brucellosis 363479
0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
paratuberculosis 5580
44 0.7885 0.0109
1.0875
IBR/IPV 124346
4002 3.2184 0.9891
98.9125
enz.leukosis 251647
0
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
T o t a l 747038
4046 1.0000 100.0000
4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF EPIZOOTIC
PROCESS DYNAMICS
=======================================================
1-Comparative indexes of population health
phenomena dynamics
2-Average of changing numbers of
diseased animals, foci etc.
3-Seasonality of population
health/disease phenomena
4-Selected tendency indicators of
morbidity and nidality
5-Relations between new cases and
space/time/diseased/foci
6-Population 'vertical movement' and
chronic disease process
7-Number of diseased animals according
to survival rates
8-Territorial propagation of
transmissible diseases
9-Development of disease frequency
with cyclic tendency
10-Development of disease with
ascending/descending tendency
11-Chronological time series of
population health phenomenon
4.1-COMPARATIVE INDEXES OF
POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENA DYNAMICS
INPUT DATA:
phenomenon ? number of tuberculosis cattle
place, period ?
List time, phenomenon values:
1 : ? 1.1.1960,628276
2 : ? 1.1.1961,630838
3 : ? 1.1.1962,565659
4 : ? 1.1.1963,456569
5 : ? 1.1.1964,379757
6 : ? 1.1.1965,249284
7 : ? 1.1.1966,158267
8 : ? 1.1.1967,80009
RESULT:
Time Input Data Comparative I n d e x
Current Chain
1 1.1.1960 628276.00 100.0000 100.0000
2
1.1.1961 630838.00 100.4078 100.4078
3 1.1.1962 565659.00 90.0335 89.6679
4 1.1.1963 456569.00 72.6701 80.7145
5 1.1.1964 379757.00 60.4443 83.1763
6 1.1.1965 249284.00 39.6775 65.6430
7 1.1.1966 158267.00 25.1907 63.4886
8 1.1.1967 80009.00 12.7347 50.5532
4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING
NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI AND
OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
average of: 1) changing numbers of diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place ? Czech Republic
time (initial and final dates
of the period) ? 1.1.1960-1.1.1967
time measure units ? years
number of diseased animals
existing at the beginning of period ? 461345
number of diseased animals
existing at the end of the period ? 59071
total duration of the given
period in time measure units ? 8
subperiods' average duration
in time measure units ? 0.5
RESULT:
Absolute difference between
initial and final number of diseased animals = -402274
Average absolute value of the
change of number of diseased animals
during one subperiod = -25142
Average relative value of the
change of initial number of diseased animals during one subperiod =
- 6.25 %
4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING
NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI AND
OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
average of: 2) changing numbers of foci (outbreaks)
INPUT DATA:
foci ? bovine brucellosis
(incl.in observation)
place ? Czechoslovakia
time (initial and final dates
of the period) ? 1.1.1961-1.1.1965
time measure units ? years
number of foci (outbreaks)
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 1420
number of foci (outbreaks)
existing at the end of the period ? 266
total duration of the given
period in time measure units ? 4
subperiods' average duration
in time measure units ? 1
RESULT:
Absolute difference between
initial and final number of foci (outbreaks) = -1154
Average absolute value of the
change of number of foci (outbreaks)
during one subperiod = -288
Average relative value of the
change of initial number of foci
(outbreaks) during one subperiod
= - 25.00 %
4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING
NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI AND
OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
average of: 3) changing numbers of epi. phenomenon units
INPUT DATA:
epi. phenomenon ?
tuberculinizations of cattle
place ? Czechoslovakia
time (initial and final dates
of the period) ? 1959-1967
time measure units ? years
epi. phenomenon measure units
? individual applications
number of epi. phenomenon
measure units at the beginning of the
period ? 4972644
number of epi. phenomenon
measure units at the end of the
period ? 9739572
total duration of the given period in time
measure units ? 9
subperiods' average duration
in time measure units ? 1
RESULT:
Absolute difference between
initial and final number of epi.
phenomena
= 4766928
Average absolute value of the
change of number of epi. phenomena during one subperiod =
529659
Average relative value of the
change of initial number of epi. phenomena during one subperiod =
11.11 %
4.3.-SEASONALITY OF POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates seasonality of: 1) disease(s)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? trichophytosis
species, category(ies) ?
humans,all
place, period ?
Czechoslovakia,1962-1964
indicator measure units ?
sick persons
number of years ? 3
Absolute monthly values:
January ? 323,324,284
February ? 405,348,256
March ? 289,288,285
April ? 272,271,210
May ? 239,240,190
June ? 20,0,160
July ? 60,180,131
August ? 127,128,96
September ? 101,111,0
October ? 103,150,148
November ? 79,117,0
December ? 174,229
RESULT:
Total Number %
Monthly Average Season Index
January 931.00 14.6892 310.33 176.2701 %
February 1009.00 15.9198 336.33 191.0382 %
March 862.00 13.6005 287.33 163.2061 %
April 753.00
11.8807
251.00 142.5686 %
May 669.00
10.5554
223.00 126.6646 %
June 180.00
2.8400
60.00 34.0802 %
July 371.00
5.8536 123.67 70.2430 %
August 351.00
5.5380 117.00 66.4563 %
September 212.00
3.3449 70.67 40.1388 %
October 401.00 6.3269 133.67 75.9230 %
November 196.00
3.0925 65.33 37.1095 %
December 403.00
6.3585 134.33 76.3017
%
T o t a l
6338.00 100.0000
176.06
4.3-SEASONALITY OF POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates seasonality of: 2) other phenomenon (outbreaks, vaccination, costs, losses, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
epi. phenomenon ? positive larvoscopic test
for Dictyocaulus filariain lambs
place, period ? Košice,1957
indicator measure units ?
positive tests
number of years ? 1
Absolute monthly values
January ? 18
February ? 8
March ? 38
April ? 31
May ? 0
June ? 10
July ? 21
August ? 11
September ? 26
October ? 0
November ? 0
December ? 0
RESULT:
Total
Number % Monthly Average Season Index
January 18.00 11.0429 18.00 132.5153
%
February 8.00 4.9080 8.00 58.8957 %
March 38.00 23.3129 38.00 279.7546
%
April 31.00
19.0184 31.00 228.2209
%
May 0.00
0.0000 0.00 0.0000
%
June 10.00
6.1350
10.00 73.6196
%
July 21.00
12.8834 21.00 154.6012 %
August 11.00
6.7485 11.00 80.9816
%
September 26.00
15.9509 26.00 191.4110
%
October 0.00
0.0000 0.00 0.0000 %
November 0.00
0.0000 0.00 0.0000
%
December 0.00
0.0000 0.00 0.0000
%
T o t a l 163.00 100.0000 13.58
4.4-SELECTED TENDENCY
INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND NIDALITY
This subprogramme calculates
tendency indicators of: 1) animal disease morbidity
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the period ? 476759
number of diseased
animals existing in the period ? 560944
average number of diseased
animals existing in the period ? 406864
number of new diseased
animals in the period ?
84185
number of extinct diseased
animals
(dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period ? 223974
RESULT:
Difference between new and
extinct diseased animals =
-139789
Ratio of new/extinct diseased
animals = 0.3759
Ratio of extinct/new diseased
animals = 2.6605
Index of morbidity stability
tendency to initial number = 0.8234
Index of morbidity stability
tendency to existing number = 0.8499
Index of morbidity stability
tendency to average number = 0.7931
Index of morbidity reduction
tendency to initial number = 0.2932
Index of morbidity reduction
tendency to existing number = 0.2492
Index of morbidity reduction
tendency to average number = 0.3436
Index of morbidity increasing
tendency to initial number = -0.2932
Index of morbidity increasing
tendency to existing number = -0.2492
Index of morbidity increasing
tendency to average number =
-0.3436
4.4-SELECTED TENDENCY
INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND NIDALITY
This subprogramme calculates
tendency indicators of: 2) animal disease nidality
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
brucellosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
Czechoslovakia,1960
number of foci (outbreaks) at the beginning of the period ? 769
number of foci (outbreaks) existing in the period ? 827
average number of foci
(outbreaks) existing in the period
? 742
number of new foci
(outbreaks) in the period ? 58
number of extinct foci
(outbreaks) in the period ? 112
RESULT:
Difference between new and
extinct outbreaks = -54
Ratio of new/extinct
outbreaks
= 0.5179
Ratio of extinct/new
outbreaks
= 1.9310
Index of nidality stability
tendency to initial number = 0.9246
Index of nidality stability
tendency to existing number = 0.9299
Index of nidality stability
tendency to average number = 0.9218
Index of nidality reduction
tendency to initial number = 0.0702
Index of nidality reduction
tendency to existing number = 0.0653
Index of nidality reduction
tendency to average number = 0.0728
Index of nidality increasing
tendency to initial number = -0.0702
Index of nidality increasing
tendency to existing number = -0.0653
Index of nidality increasing
tendency to average number = -0.0728
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of diseases spreading:
1) ratios of disease new
cases/space units
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1960
definition of new cases ?
animals with positive tbc test
number of disease new
cases ? 191842
space measure unit ? km2
number of space measure units
of the territory ? 78864
RESULT:
Ratio of disease new cases per
one space unit = 2.4326 / km2
Ratio of territory per one new
case of disease = 0.4111 km2
: 1
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of diseases spreading:
2) ratios of disease new
cases/time units (disease frequency)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1960
definition of new cases ?
animals with positive tbc test
number of disease new
cases ? 191842
time measure unit (up to 5
characters !) ? day
number of time measure units
of the period ? 365
RESULT:
Ratio of disease new cases per
one time unit = 525.5945 / day
Ratio of time period per one
new case of disease = 0.0019
day : 1
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates following
indicators of diseases spreading: 3) ratios of disease new cases/total diseased
animals
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech Republic,1960
definition of new cases ?
animals with positive tbc test
number of disease new
cases ? 191842
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning of the
period ? 628276
total number of diseased
animals existing in the period ? 820118
total average number of
diseased animals existing in the
period ? 629557
RESULT:
Ratio of disease new cases
per one diseased animal existing at the
beginning of the period = 0.3053
Ratio of diseased animals
existing at the beginning of the period
per one new case of disease = 3.2750
Ratio of disease new cases
per one diseased animals existing in
the period = 0.2339
Ratio of diseased animals
existing in the period per one new case
of disease = 4.2750
Ratio of disease new cases
per one diseased animal of average
number in the period = 0.3047
Ratio of diseased animals'
average number existing in the period
per one new case of disease = 3.2816
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of diseases spreading:
4) ratios of new/total foci
NPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1961
definition of new foci ?
ranches with brucellosis animals
number of new foci ? 41
total number of foci
existing at the beginning of the
period ? 518
total number of foci existing
in the period ? 559
total average number of foci
existing in the period ? 473
RESULT:
Ratio of new foci per one
focus existing at the beginning of the period =
0.0792
Ratio of foci existing at the
beginning of the period per one new
focus = 12.6341
Ratio of new foci per one
focus existing in the period =
0.0733
Ratio of foci existing in the
period per one new focus = 13.6341
Ratio of new foci per one
focus of average existing in the
period = 0.0867
Ratio of average number of
foci existing in the period per one new focus =
11.5366
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) combination of existing, new and extinct diseased animals
INPUT DATA
disease(s) ? bovine
brucellosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1962
Question about indicator to be calculated l e a v e
w i t h o u t a n y a n s w e r, however the other three data
must be given !
number of diseased animals
existing at the beginning ? 36656
number of new diseased
animals (newly diseased+new born diseased+introduced) ? 519
number of extinct diseased
animals
(dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) ?
number of diseased animals
existing at the end of the period ? 25288
RESULT:
Number of extinct diseased
animals in the period =
11887
Number of diseased animals
existing in the period = 37175
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) diseased animals' replacement rates
INPUT DATA
disease(s) ? bovine
brucellosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1961
number of new diseased
animals (newly diseased+new born
diseased+introduced) ? 1797
total number of diseased
animals existing at the beginning of the
period ? 33211
total number of diseased
animals existing in the period ?
35008
average number of diseased
animals existing in the period ?
34933
duration (in days) of one
population reproduction cycle ?
1800
RESULT:
Diseased animals' replacement
rate to initial number = 0.0541
Diseased animals' replacement
rate to existing number = 0.0513
Diseased animals' replacement
rate to average number = 0.0514
Ratio year/population
reproduction cycle = 0.2028
Number of years of population
reproduction cycle = 4.9315
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) estimate of remaining diseased animals within one generation cycle
INPUT DATA
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1961
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning of the period ? 450898
duration (in days) of one
regular generation
(replacement/reproduction) cycle
? 1825
duration (in days) between the
initial and evaluated days w i t h i n
the generation cycle ? 365
RESULT:
Estimated number of diseased
animals existing at the beginning and
still remaining */ at the evaluated day
= 360718
*/ Note: If not eliminated
prematurely and in the absence of migration.
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 4) estimate of remaining diseased animals
within one regular continuing production/breeding cycle
INPUT DATA
disease(s) ? chronic
respiratory disease
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,sows
place, period ? Ranch B.,2003
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning of the period ?
1510
duration (in days) of one
regular continuing production/breeding
replacement cycle ? 455
duration (in days) between the
initial and evaluated days w i t h i
n the production/breeding cycle ? 180
RESULT:
Estimated number of diseased
animals existing at the beginning and
still remaining */ at the evaluated day
= 913
*/ Note: If not eliminated
prematurely and in absence of migration.
4.7-NUMBER OF DISEASED ANIMALS
ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? enzootic
leukosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,females born in 1981
place, period ? Province
Y.,1981-1985
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning ? 1250
List data:
names of subperiods, coefficients of diseased animals survival
probability :
1 : ? < 1 year,0.9
2 : ? 1-2 year,0.93
3 : ? 2-3 years,0.95
4 :
? 3-4 years,0.95
5 : ? 4-5 years,0.96
RESULT:
Age Survival
Mortality Cumulative Surviving
Subperiod Rate
Rate Survival Dis.Animals
Rate
at the End
1 < 1 year
0.9000
0.1000 0.9000 1125
2 1-2 year
0.9300 0.0700 0.8370 1046
3 2-3 years
0.9500 0.0500 0.7951 994
4 3-4 years
0.9500 0.0500 0.7554 944
5 4-5 years
0.9600 0.0400 0.7252 906
From the initial number of 1250
diseased animals after 5 age
subperiods it can be estimated
about 906 surviving diseased animals (if
not removed prematurely).
4.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
DISEASE TERRITORIAL PROPAGATION
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) combination of velocity, distance and time
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease species ? antelopes
place, period ?
China-Mongolia borders zones,IX/1963-VI/1964
territorial surface measure
units ? km2 length measure units ? km time measure units ? days
Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be calculated
! Other two questions must be answered
!
velocity of disease
propagation per one time measure unit ?
distance of disease
propagation in length measure units ?
376
time of disease propagation
in time measure units ? 270
Additional input data:
average density of animals
per one surface unit ? 0.9
estimated excision angle
grade (1 - 360) of theoretical circular
propagation ? 90
RESULT:
Estimated velocity of disease
propagation per one time measure
unit = 1.39 km
Estimated affected zone (if the propagation follows circular
excision) = 111188 km2
Estimated number of animals in
affected zone =
99932
4.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
DISEASE TERRITORIAL PROPAGATION
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) relations of newly to total affected territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease species ? ruminants+pigs
place, period ? County N.,1998
territorial surface measure
units ? km2
new affected territory in
surface units ? 345
affected territory at the
beginning of the period in surface
units ? 456
affected territory existing
in the period in surface units ? 678
affected territory average
existing in the period in surface
units ? 540
RESULT:
Ratio of new affected
territory per one surface unit of
initially affected territory = 0.7566
Ratio of initially affected territory per
one surface unit of new affected territory
= 1.3217
Ratio of new affected
territory per one surface unit of affected territory existing in the
period = 0.5088
Ratio of affected territory
existing in the period per one surface
unit of new affected territory = 1.9652
Ratio of new affected
territory per one surface unit of affected territory average in the period =
0.6389
Ratio of affected territory
average in the period per one surface
unit of new affected territory = 1.5652
4.9-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE
FREQUENCY WITH CYCLIC TENDENCY
(sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? rabies species, category(ies) ? fox,all
place, period ? County
S.,1990-1996
time measure unit ? semesters
supposed amplitude -
difference between maximal and minimal
numbers of diseased animals ? 270
minimal number of diseased
animals (curve bottom) ? 55
duration between two peaks of
the curve (in time units) ? 6
initial value of time (in
time measure units) when the number of
diseased animals is in the curve middle
i.e. in the middle between maximal and minimal numbers ? 0
total period duration in time
measure units ? 14
RESULT:
Time-end of Estimated number
semesters of diseased animals
0 190
1 306
2 306
3 190
4 73
5 73
6 189
7 306
8 306
9 190
10 73
11 73
12 189
13 306
14 306
4.10-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE
FREQUENCY WITH ASCENDING/DESCENDING TENDENCY
(part of sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? African swine
fever species, category(ies) ? swine,all
place, period ? Province
U.(newly introduced),May 1965
time measure units ? days
supposed amplitude -
difference between maximal and minimal
numbers of diseased animals ?
25000
duration between max/min
numbers in time units ? 16
evaluated period duration in
time measure units ? 16
Is the curve of diseased animals numbers ascending (a) or descending (d)
? a
minimal number of diseased
animals at the b e g i n n i n g ? 550
RESULT:
Time-end of Estimated number
days of diseased animals
(start) 550
1 790
2 1501
3 2656
4 4211
5 6105
6 8266
7 10611
8 13050
9 15488
10 17833
11 19994
12 21888
13 23443
14 24598
15 25309
16 25549
4.10-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE
FREQUENCY WITH ASCENDING/DESCENDING TENDENCY
(part of sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis species, category(ies) ? cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1959-1968
time measure units ? years
supposed amplitude -
difference between maximal and minimal
numbers of diseased animals ?
628276
duration between max/min
numbers in time units ? 10
evaluated period duration in
time measure units ? 10
Is the curve of diseased animals numbers ascending (a) or descending (d) ? d
minimal number of diseased
animals at the period e n d ? 0
RESULT:
Time-end of Estimated number
years of diseased animals
(start) 628276
1 612901
2 568281
3 498784
4 411212
5 314138
6 217064
7 129493
8 59995
9 15375
10 0
4.11-CHRONOLOGICAL TIME SERIES
OF POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENON
INPUT DATA:
variable (indicator), period
? tbc cattle in Czechoslovakia,1960-1969
List subperiods or moments in chronological order, variable values:
1 ? 1.1.1960,859557
2 ? 1.1.1961,893793
3 ? 1.1.1962,795975
4 ? 1.1.1963,639171
5 ? 1.1.1964,476759
6 ? 1.1.1965,336970
7 ? 1.1.1966,206567
8 ? 1.1.1967,99348
9 ? 1.1.1968,19477
10 ? 1.1.1969,0
RESULT:
Order Subperiod/ Variable I
n d e
x
Number Moment Value Current Chained
1 1.1.1960 859557.00 100.00 100.00
2 1.1.1961 893793.00 103.98 103.98
3 1.1.1962 795975.00 92.60 89.06
4 1.1.1963 639171.00 74.36 80.30
5 1.1.1964 476759.00 55.47 74.59
6 1.1.1965 336970.00 39.20 70.68
7 1.1.1966 206567.00 24.03 61.30
8 1.1.1967 99348.00 11.56 48.09
9 1.1.1968 19477.00 2.27
19.60
10 1.1.1969 0.00 0.00
0.00
Estimated linear trend (least
square line): Y =
432761.69 -113799.77 X
5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE
RISK ASSESSMENT
==========================================================
1-General indicators of animal disease risk
2-Risk probability assessment of animal
disease introduction I.
3-Risk probability assessment of animal
disease introduction II.
4-Risk comparison of a disease
introduction from several territories
5-Risk comparison of several diseases
introduction from one territory
6-Animal population movement as
potential risk of disease propagation
7-Animal products transfer as potential
risk of disease propagation
8-Concentration of animals as potential
risk of disease propagation
9-Risk probability assessment of animal
disease propagation
10-Per capita food consumption as
potential risk of food-born diseases
(Note: See also module 11 of the Main Menu
!)
5.1-GENERAL INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE RISK (Ref.:Jenicek;
Martin; Toma)
INPUT DATA:
risk (disease) ? hog cholera place ? Region N. time ? 31 May 2004
species ? pigs category(ies) ? all
Are you going to input relative (r) or absolute (a) data ? r
incidence rate (major) among
animals e x p o s e d to disease risk ? 0.1333
incidence rate (minor) among
animals n o n-e x p o s e d to disease risk ? 0.05
RESULT:
Grade of relative risk (risk ratio) =
2.6660
Grade of attributable
(differential) risk = 0.0833
Fraction of attributable
risk = 0.6249
Percentage of attributable
risk = 62.4906 %
Grade of risk superiority (risk odds ratio, risk coefficient) =
2.9222
5.1-GENERAL INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE RISK (Ref.:Jenicek;
Martin; Toma)
INPUT DATA:
risk (disease) ? rabies in
unvaccinated animals
place ? Province C. time ? 2001
species ? fox category(ies) ? all
Are you going to input
relative (r) or absolute (a) data ?
a
number of diseased among
animals exposed to the risk ? 34
number of healthy among
animals exposed to the risk ?
456
number of diseased among
animals non-exposed to the risk ? 8
number of healthy among
animals non-exposed to the risk ?
6080
RESULT:
Grade of relative risk (risk
ratio) = 52.8041
Grade of attributable
(differential) risk = 0.0681
Fraction of attributable
risk = 0.9811
Percentage of attributable risk = 98.1062 %
Grade of risk superiority (risk odds ratio, risk coefficient) =
56.6667
Grade of individual risk of
exposed animals = 0.0694
Grade of individual risk of
non-exposed animals = 0.0013
5.2-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION I.
This subprogramme calculates a
rough probability of potential risk of
specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory
(country, province, region, ranch,
etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria
of i n a b i l i t y - failure
grades (scale between >0 and 1) are used.
The input and result interpretation to be based upon theoretical
knowledge and practical experience and
must be epizootiologically meaningful.
Note: Diseased animals = affected clinically, subclinically and
carriers of specific etiological
agents. Animal products = not sterilized raw animal products.
INPUT DATA:
specific disease ?
brucellosis
commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal products (p) ?
a
species/category ?
cattle,heifers
number of animals to be
imported ? 1250
name of importing
unit/territory ? A name of exporting unit/territory ? B
time - period ? May 2004
Situation in the
territory/population/unit of origin:
specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1) ? 0.1
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to d i s c o v e r a l l specifically
i n f e c t e d animals and h
e r d s (outbreaks) considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, population investigation grade,
field and laboratory services capabilities, active field surveys,
reporting/information systems, etc..
? 0.4
estimated grade of i n a b i l i t
y (failure) to a v
o i d specific disease propagation (n e
w f o c i - focal incidence) due to the lack of
effective foci isolation and control
and field prevention measures during previous critical period ? 0.5
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to a
v o i d d i s e a s e d (infected) animals to be e x p o r t e d (considering: pre-export animal selection,
testing, treatment and control measures, reliability of certificates,
eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s of exporting diseased animals or
their products, etc.) ? 0.2
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of disease introduction =
0.00400000 +- 0.00349914
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about 5
5.2-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION I.
This subprogramme calculates a
rough probability of potential risk of specific animal disease agents to be
introduced into a territory (country, province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad.
Selected simple criteria of i n a b i l i t y - failure grades (scale
between >0 and 1) are used. The input
and result interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be
epizootiologically meaningful.
Note: Diseased animals =
affected clinically, subclinically and carriers of specific etiological agents.
Animal products = not sterilized raw animal products.
INPUT DATA:
specific disease ? hog
cholera
commodity to be imported -
animals (a) or animal products (p) ?
p
type of animal product ? meat measure units ? MT
quantity of product to be
imported ? 34000
name of importing
unit/territory ? Country A
name of exporting unit/territory ? Country
B
time - period ? 2003
Situation in the
territory/population/unit of origin:
specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1) ? 0.05
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to d i s c o v e r a l l : specifically i n f e c t ed animals,
h e r d s (outbreaks) and particular products containing specific
disease etiological a g e n t s (considering: sensitivity/specificity of
diagnostic methods used, grade of population/product investigation, field and
laboratory services capabilities, reporting/information systems, etc.) ? 0.8
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to a v o i d
the contamination of pathogen-free products by specific pathogens during
processing, storing and transport ? 0.7 estimated grade of i n a b i l i t y (failure) to
a v o i d specific etiological
agents to be exported by the particular commodity (considering: pre-export
product selection, testing, treatment and
protection measures, reliability of certificates, eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s
of 'exporting' disease(s), etc.)
? 0.6
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of disease introduction =
0.01680000 +- 0.00136613
Estimated quantity of
infected or contaminated products to be
probably introduced is about 571 MT
5.3-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION II.
This subprogramme calculates a
rough probability of potential risk of
specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory
(country, province, region, ranch,
etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria of a b
i l i t y grades (scale between >0
and 1) are used. The input and result
interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge
and practical experience and
must be epizootiologically meaningful.
Note: Diseased animals =
affected clinically, subclinically and carriers
of specific etiological agents. Animal products = not sterilized raw animal products.
INPUT DATA:
specific disease ?
foot-and-mouth disease
commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal products (p) ? a
species (category) ? cattle
number of animals to be
imported ? 2350
name of importing
unit/territory ? Province D.
name of exporting
unit/territory ? Province N.
specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1) ? 0.05
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r a l l specifically i n f e c t e d animals and
h e r d s (outbreaks) considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic
methods used,
population investigation grade, field and laboratory services capabilities,
active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc..
? 0.6
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d specific disease propagation
(avoiding n e w f o c i
- focal incidence) thanks to preventive/control field measures during
previous critical period ? 0.4
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d d i s e a s e d animal(s) to be e x p o r t e d (considering: pre-export animal selection,
testing, treatment and control measures, reliability of certificates,
eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s
of exporting infected animal(s) or product(s), etc.) ? 0.7
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of disease introduction =
0.00360000 +- 0.00242153
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about 8
5.3-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION II.
This subprogramme calculates a
rough probability of potential risk of specific animal disease agents to be
introduced into a territory (country, province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad.
Selected simple criteria of a b i l i t y
grades (scale between >0 and 1) are used. The input and result interpretation to be
based upon theoretical knowledge
and practical experience and
must be epizootiologically meaningful.
Note: Diseased animals =
affected clinically, subclinically and carriers of specific etiological agents. Animal
products = not sterilized raw animal
products.
INPUT DATA:
specific disease ?
foot-and-mouth disease
commodity to be imported -
animals (a) or animal products (p) ?
p
type of animal product ? meat measure units ? MT
quantity of product to be
imported ? 15000
name of importing
unit/territory ? Country F.
name of exporting unit/territory ? Country G.
specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1) ? 0.04
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r a l l : specifically i n f e c t e d animals,
h e r d s (outbreaks) and animal products
containing specific disease etiological
a g e n t s (considering:
sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, grade of population/product
investigation, field and laboratory services capabilities,
reporting/information systems, etc.)
? 0.5
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d contamination of
pathogen-free products by specific pathogens during processing, storing and
transport ? 0.4
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d specific etiological
agents to be exported by the particular commodity (considering: pre-export
product selection, testing, treatment,
and protection measures, reliability of certificates, eventual p r e v i
o u s c a s e s of 'exporting' the disease, etc.) ? 0.7
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of disease introduction =
0.00360000 +- 0.00095847
Estimated quantity of
affected products to be probably
introduced is about 54 MT
5.4-RISK COMPARISON OF DISEASE
AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM SEVERAL TERRITORIES
This subprogramme compares relative risks of specific disease agents to
be introduced by import from territories
n o t f r e e of the disease.
Criteria on disease and
exporting territories situation:
a) grade of disease transmissibility - ability to be propagated
b) grade of disease occurrence - considering prevalence, incidence and
spread
c) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r all infected
animals and herds (due to insufficient:
sensitivity of diagnostic methods used, animal population investigation grade, field
and laboratory services capabilities,
active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc.)
d) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d disease propagation (new
foci) i.e. inability to protect
specific disease free animals, herds and territory (due to the lack of or insufficient
preventive and control field measures)
e) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
r e d u c e disease o c c u r r e n c e (due
to the lack or insufficient: reduction, elimination and/or eradication field measures, sanitation actions, field
and laboratory services, etc.)
f) grade of i n e f f e c t i v e
n e s s of pre-export
'f i l t e r' (due to lack or insufficient: pre-export
selection, treatment, investigations
and control measures, reliability of veterinary services and their certificates), considering also
eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s
of 'exporting' infected animals
or infected/contaminated commodities, etc.
INPUT DATA:
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
importing territory, time ?
Country C.,May 2001
commodity ? beef
Key estimated criteria values on the disease and exporting territories using the
s c a l e of the g r a d e s
from 0 to 10 :
Territory No. 1 : name: ? Country A.
grade of the disease
transmissibility
? 10
grade of the disease
occurrence
? 5
grade of inability to discover
all disease cases/outbreaks ? 3
grade of inability to avoid new
foci ? 5
grade of inability to reduce
the disease at the territory level ? 4
grade of ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' ? 3
Territory No. 2 : name : ?
Country Z.
grade of the disease
transmissibility
? 10
grade of the disease
occurrence
? 1
grade of inability to discover
all disease cases/outbreaks ? 3
grade of inability to avoid new
foci ? 4
grade of inability to reduce
the disease at the territory level ? 2
grade of ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' ? 1
The values of importance
multiplier coefficients are fixed (default)
as follows:
a) disease
transmissibility
= 5
b) disease
occurrence
= 25
c) inability to
discover all disease cases/outbreaks = 8
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease = 5
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease = 3
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' = 10
Do you accept this
coefficients (y) or you will fixe others
(o) ? o Define other values of importance
multiplier coefficients :
a) disease
transmissibility
? 10
b) disease
occurrence
? 30
c) inability to
discover all disease cases/outbreaks ?
15
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease ? 20
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease ? 5
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' ? 10
RESULT:
Exporting Grade of Disease Grade of
I n a b i l i t y to
Territory ----------------------- ------------------------------------------ T O T
A L
(with disease trans- occur- disco- avoid
reduce avoid
occurrence) missi- rence ver
new occur-
agents r i s k
bility
disease
foci rence
'export' points
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multiplier * 10
* 30 * 15 *
20 *
5 * 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country A. 10 5 3 5 4 3 445
Country Z. 10 1
3 4
2 1 275
Territory Proportion Percentage
of the total 720 allocated risk points
Country A. 0.6181 61.8056
Country Z. 0.3819 38.1944
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
5.5-RISK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL
DISEASES AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM ONE TERRITORY
This subprogramme compares relative risks of specific diseases agents to
be introduced by import from one territory
n o t f r e e of these diseases.
Criteria on diseases and
exporting territory situation:
a) grade of disease transmissibility - ability to be propagated
b) grade of disease occurrence - considering prevalence, incidence and
spread
c) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r all infected
animals and herds (due to insufficient:
sensitivity of diagnostic methods used, animal population investigation grade, field
and laboratory services capabilities,
active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc.)
d) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d disease propagation (new
foci), i.e. inability to protect
specific disease free animals, herds and territory (due to the lack of or insufficient
preventive and control field measures)
e) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
r e d u c e disease o c c u r r e n c e (due to the lack or insufficient: reduction,
elimination and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, field and
laboratory services, etc.)
f) grade of i n e f f e c t i v e
n e s s of pre-export 'f i l t e r' (due to lack or insufficient: pre-export selection,
treatment, investigations and control
measures, reliability of veterinary services and their certificates), considering also
eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s
of 'exporting' infected animals or infected/contaminated commodities,
etc.
INPUT DATA:
exporting territory ? Country
U.
importing territory, time ?
Country C.,May 2004
commodity ? pregnant heifers
Key estimated criteria values on the diseases and exporting territory using the
s c a l e of the g r a d e s
from 0 to 10 :
Disease No. 1 : name : ? bov.tuberculosis
grade of the disease
transmissibility
? 5
grade of the disease
occurrence
? 2
grade of inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks ? 6
grade of inability to avoid new
foci ? 5
grade of inability to reduce
the disease at the territory level ? 3
grade of ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' ? 2
Disease No. 2 : name : ? bov.brucellosis
grade of the disease
transmissibility
? 6
grade of the disease
occurrence ? 0.5
grade of inability to discover
all disease cases/outbreaks ? 2
grade of inability to avoid new
foci ? 1
grade of inability to reduce
the disease at the territory level ? 5
grade of ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' ? 1
The values of importance
multiplier coefficients are fixed
(default) as follows:
a) disease
transmissibility
= 5
b) disease
occurrence
= 25
c) inability to
discover all disease cases/outbreaks = 8
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease = 5
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease = 3
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' = 10
Do you accept this
coefficients (y) or you will fix others
(o) ? o
Define other values of
importance multiplier coefficients (integers !):
a) disease
transmissibility
? 10
b) disease
occurrence
? 30
c) inability to
discover all disease cases/outbreaks ? 40
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease ? 20
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease ? 5
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' ? 10
RESULT:
Grade
of Grade of
i n a b i l i t y to
------------------- ------------------------------------------ T O T A L
D i s e a s e trans- occur-
disco- avoid
reduce avoid
missi- rence
ver new
occur- agents
r i s k
bility disease foci rence
'export' points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multiplier * 10 * 30 * 40 *
20 *
5 * 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bov.tbc 5 2
6 5 3
2 485
bov.brucellosis 6 0.5 2 1
5
1 210
Disease Proportion Percentage
of the total 695 allocated risk points
bov.tbc 0.6978 69.7842
bov.brucellosis 0.3022
30.2158
T o t a l 1.0000
100.0000
5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
animal population movement in terms of:
1) combination of distance, time
and velocity
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
antelopes,all
territory, period ?
Mongolia,IX/1963-VI/1964
place(s) of origin, of
destination ? Chinese border,Central Ajmak
number of animals moved
between origin and destination places ? 5000
purpose: rearing (r),
fattening (f) or slaughter (s) or natural (n) ? n
length measure units ? km
time measure units ? days
Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be calculated; the other two numeric data must be available !
velocity of the movement per
one time measure unit ?
distance of the movement in
length measure units ? 360
time of the movement in time
measure units ? 300
RESULT:
Estimated average velocity
of animal movement per one time measure unit
= 1.20 km
5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
animal population movement in terms of:
2) indicators related to movement
extent, dispersion and convergency
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
antelopes,all
territory, period ?
China-Mongolia,1963-1964
place(s) of origin, of
destination ? borders,Central Aymak
number of animals moved
between origin and destination places ? 5000
purpose: rearing (r),
fattening (f) or slaughter (s) or
natural (n) ? n
distance, duration in days ? 360
km,300
number of animals of the
given species/category(ies) existing in place(s) of destination in the period ? 50000
surface measure units (up to
6 characters !) ? km2
size of territory of animal
origin in surface units ? 30000
size of territory of
destination in surface units ?
250000
level (regional, national,
international, etc.) ? international
form of movement (transport
means, on foot, etc.) ? on foot
RESULT:
Ratio introduced/total
(introduced+local) animals
= 0.9091
Ratio introduced/local
animals = 1 :
10.0000 = 0.1000
Ratio local/introduced
animals = 1 :
0.1000 = 10.0000
Ratio destination/origin
territories' size =
8.3333
Ratio origin/destination
territories' size = 0.1200
Average number of introduced
animals per one day = 16.6667
5.7-ANIMAL PRODUCTS TRANSFER
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates indicators related to raw animal products transfer
(distribution) extent, dispersion and convergency.
INPUT DATA:
animal product, measure units
? beef,MT
territory framework, period ?
Country C.,2004
place(s) of origin, of
destination ? Region H.,Province T.
What is the purpose ? Further processing (f), distribution (d)
consumption (c), export e) or import (i)
? d
amount of the product
transferred between origin and
destination places in product measure units ? 12000
amount of the product produced locally in destination places (territory) ? 150000
distance of transfer ?
300-500 km
time measure units, duration
of transfer ? days,90
numbers of places of origin,
of destination ? 30,400
surface measure units ? km2
size of territory of product
origin in surface units ? 120
size of territory of product
destination in surface units ? 4500
level (regional, national,
international,etc.) ? national form of transport ? camions
RESULT:
Ratio introduced/total
(introduced+local) products = 0.9259
Ratio introduced/local
products = 1 : 12.5000 =
0.0800
Ratio local/introduced
products = 1 :
0.0800 = 12.5000
Ratio destination/origin places
(dispersion) = 13.3333
Ratio origin/destination places
(convergency) = 0.0750
Ratio destination/origin
territories' size = 37.5000
Ratio origin/destination
territories' size = 0.0267
Average of introduced product per
one destination place = 30.0000 MT
Average of introduced product per
one time unit = 133.3333 MT
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the
concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:
1) concentration on known surface space
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ? Czech
Republic,31.12.1994
number of animals ? 2033963
type of location
[territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es),
farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s), box(es), etc.] ? farms
identification (name) of
location(s) ? cattle farms
surface space measure unit
(m2, ha, km2, shed, farm, etc.) ? farm
known space for all animals
in surface measure units ? 14800
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one surface unit = 137.4299
Average surface space per one
animal = 0.0073 farm
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the concentration
grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:
1) concentration on known surface space
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,in feedlots
place, time ? Farm
T.,1.1.2004
number of animals ? 2200
type of location
[territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es), farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s),
box(es), etc.] ? pig-shed
identification (name) of
location(s) ? Block B.
surface space measure unit
(m2, ha, km2, shed, farm, etc.) ? m2
known space for all animals
in surface measure units ? 1500
Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
standard (norm) value in
space units ? 0.5
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one surface unit = 1.4667
Average surface space per one
animal = 0.6818 m2
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
1.3636
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the
concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:
2) concentration on unknown surface space (to be calculated)
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place, time ? Farm
N.,1.1.2005
number of animals ? 105
type of location
[territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es),
farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s), box(es), etc.] ? shed
identification (name) of
location(s) ? No.4
surface space measure unit ?
m2 length measure unit (up to 6
characters) ? m
length of the space
surface ? 60 width (span) of the space surface ? 10
Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
standard (norm) value in
space units ? 4.85
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one surface unit = 0.1750
Average surface space per one
animal = 5.7143 m2
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
1.1782
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the
concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:
3) concentration
in known volume space
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,in feedlot
place, time ? Farm
K.,1.1.2005
number of animals ? 1200
type of location (air space
in stable, shed, box, etc or water environment in reservoir, etc.) ? pig shed
identification (name) of
location(s) ? Block 3
volume space measure
units ? m3 known volume space for the animals ? 650
Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or
no(n) ? n
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one m3 = 1.8462
Average volume space per one
animal = 0.5417 m3
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
simple indicators related to the concentration grade of animals on surface and
in volume space of environment:
4) concentration in unknown volume space (to be calculated)
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,feedlot
place, time ? Farm
L.,1.5.2004
number of animals ? 2150
type of location (air space
in stable, shed, box, etc. or water environment in reservoir, etc.) ? feedlot
shed
identification (name) of
location(s) ? Block 2
volume space measure
units ? m3 length measure units ? m
length, width (span) of the
space ? 150,20
hight of the space ? 6
Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
standard (norm) value in
space units ? 5
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one m3 = 0.1194
Average volume space per one
animal = 8.3721 m3
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
1.6744
5.9-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates a
rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from
existing foci creating new ones. The
input and result interpretation to be based
on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be
epizootiologically meaningful. A l l questions about grades and rates (real,
supposed or fictitious)
must be answered (scale between >0 and 1) !
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Region O.,2004
disease? hog cholera species ? pigs
definition of focal units ? farms definition of foci ? affected farms
True situation in the given
territory/population:
prevalence rate of specifically
diseased animals ?
0.08
incidence rate of specifically
diseased animals ? 0.12
prevalence rate of specific
disease f o c i
? 0.2
incidence rate of specific
disease f o c i ? 0.13
t e n d e n c y of specific
epizootic process - stagnating (s),
increasing (i) or decreasing (d) ?
s
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to r e d u c e
the number of foci due to the
lack of effective: field reduction, elimination, and/or eradication measures,
sanitation actions, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc. ? 0.7
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to p r o t e c t
disease free part of population (n e w
f o c i) due to lack of
effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and
their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs,
etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods,
veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.
? 0.5
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of
disease propagation can be estimated to
be about 0.54400718 i.e.
about 54.4007 %
5.9-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates a
rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from
existing foci creating new ones. The
input and result interpretation to be based
on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be
epizootiologically meaningful. A l
l questions about grades and rates
(real, supposed or fictitious)
must be answered (scale between >0 and 1) !
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Region O.,2004
disease? hog cholera species ? pigs
definition of focal units ?
farms definition of foci ? affected
farms
True situation in the given
territory/population:
prevalence rate of specifically
diseased animals ?
0.08
incidence rate of specifically
diseased animals ?
0.12
prevalence rate of specific
disease f o c i ? 0.2
incidence rate of specific
disease f o c i ? 0.13
t e n d e n c y of specific
epizootic process - stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d) ? d
- estimated increasing or decreasing
g r a d e considering the
characteristics of specific disease process (interaction of
population-pathogens-environment, development stage), role of influencing
factors, p r e v i o u s propagation
intensity etc. ? 0.4
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to r e d u c e
the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction,
elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and
laboratory services, etc. ? 0.7
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to p r o t e c t
disease free part of population (n e w
f o c i) due to lack of
effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and
their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs,
etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods,
veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.
? 0.5
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of
disease propagation can be estimated to
be about 0.43542346 i.e. about
43.5423 %
5.9-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates a
rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from
existing foci creating new ones. The
input and result interpretation to be based
on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be
epizootiologically meaningful. A l
l questions about grades and rates
(real, supposed or fictitious)
must be answered (scale between >0 and 1) !
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Region O.,2004
disease? hog cholera species ? pigs
definition of focal units ?
farms definition of foci ? affected
farms
True situation in the given
territory/population:
prevalence rate of specifically
diseased animals ?
0.08
incidence rate of specifically
diseased animals ?
0.12
prevalence rate of specific
disease f o c i
? 0.2
incidence rate of specific
disease f o c i ? 0.13
t e n d e n c y of specific
epizootic process - stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d) ? i
- estimated increasing or decreasing
g r a d e considering the
characteristics of specific disease process (interaction of
population-pathogens-environment, development stage), role of influencing
factors, p r e v i o u s propagation
intensity etc. ? 0.6
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to r e d u c e
the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction,
elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and
laboratory services, etc. ? 0.7
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to p r o t e c t
disease free part of population (n e w
f o c i) due to lack of
effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and
their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs,
etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods,
veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.
? 0.5
RESULT:
Risk probability grade of
disease propagation can be estimated to
be about 0.87084693 i.e. about
87.0847 %
5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD
CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person
according to: 1) food
INPUT DATA:
place, period ?
total number of persons ?
10330000
List of data - names, units,
quantity in measure units:
1 : food, measure units, quantity
? total meat,kg,916270968
2 : food, measure units, quantity
? beef,kg,303701996
3 : food, measure units, quantity
? veal,kg,8264005
4 : food, measure units, quantity
? pork,kg,443157016
5 : food, measure units, quantity
? poultry,kg,110530998
6 : food, measure units, quantity
? milk,liters,1060890968
7 : food, measure units, quantity
? eggs,pieces,3419230000
RESULT:
Food Measure Quantity Average
Units per Capita
total meat kg 916270968 88.7000
beef kg 303701996 29.4000
veal kg
8264005 0.8000
pork kg 443157016 42.9000
poultry kg
110530998 10.7000
milk liters 1060890968 102.7000
eggs pieces 3419230000 331.0000
5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD
CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person
according to: 2) place
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1985
food ? meat food measure units ? kg
List of data - names; quantity in
measure units:
1 : place, persons, food quantity
? Czech Rep.,10343398,923665441
2 : place, persons, food quantity
? Slovak Rep.,5177441,409535583
RESULT:
Place Persons Quantity Average
Grand
T o t a l
of Food per Capita
Proportion %
Czech Rep. 10343398 923665441
89.3000 0.6928 69.2818
Slovak Rep. 5177441 409535583 79.1000 0.3072 30.7182
T o t a l 15520839
1333201024 85.8975 1.0000
100.0000
5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person
according to: 3) time
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1983-1985
food ? meat total food measure units ? kg
List of data - names; quantity in
measure units:
1 : subperiod, persons, food
quantity ? 1983,10326526,907701635
2 : subperiod, persons, food
quantity ? 1984,10333900,916616930
3 : subperiod, persons, food quantity
? 1985,10343398,923665441
RESULT:
Superiod Persons Quantity Average Grand T o t a l
of Food
per Capita
Proportion %
1983 10326526
907701635 87.9000 0.3303
33.0315
1984 10333900
916616930 88.7000 0.3336 33.3560
1985 10343398
923665441 89.3000 0.3361 33.6125
T o t a l 31003824 2747984006 88.6337
1.0000 100.0000
6-CONSEQUENCES OF ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH AND DISEASE
==========================================================
1-Animal health benefit and disease
losses in production
2-Public health consequences of
diseases common to animals and man
3-Losses due to specific disease
according to average parameters
4-Losses due to death and condemnation
of animal carcasses
5-Losses due to diseased animals'
utility reduction
6-Losses due to diseased animals'
reproduction deterioration
7-Inputs benefit/losses in
healthy/diseased animals
8-Summary tables of losses due to
animal population diseases
9-Cost of population health mass
actions
10-Economic losses due to population
health/disease measures' costs
11-Blanc summary tables of animal
population disease consequences
6.1-ANIMAL HEALTH BENEFIT AND
DISEASE LOSSES IN PRODUCTION
This programme calculates the benefit/losses in animal population
production: 1) using method I. (based on average numbers of production units per healthy and diseased animals and
average number of healthy and diseased
animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? chronic respiratory
complex
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,sow
place, period ? Farm J.,1992
production indicator ? weaned piglets per sow
production indicator measure
units ? weaned piglets
monetary units ? Czech crowns
average price of one
production measure unit ?
330
average number of production
units per one healthy animal ? 16.6
average number of production
units per one diseased animal ? 5
average number of healthy
animals ? 30 average number of diseased
animals ? 50
RESULT:
Estimated production benefit
of animal disease free status = 348
production units of value =
114840 Czech crowns
Estimated production losses
due to animal disease(s) = 580
production units of value =
191400 Czech crowns
6.1-ANIMAL HEALTH BENEFIT AND
DISEASE LOSSES IN PRODUCTION
This programme calculates the benefit/losses in animal population
production: 2) using method II. (based on average number of production units per animal, per healthy animal and per
diseased animal and average number of
all animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? chronic
respiratory complex
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,56-154 days age
place, period ? Farm N.,1998
production indicator ? weight gain
production indicator measure
units ? kg monetary units ? dollars
average price of one
production measure unit ?
3.2
average number of production
units per one animal ? 0.72
average number of production
units per one diseased animal ? 0.64
average number of production
units per one healthy animal ? 0.86
average number of animals of a
given population ? 800
RESULT:
Estimated production benefit
of animal disease free status = 64
production units of value = 204
dollars
Estimated production losses
due to animal disease(s) = 111
production units of value = 358
dollars
6.2-PUBLIC HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
OF DISEASES COMMON TO ANIMALS AND MAN
This subprogramme includes only consequences which can be quantified in
monetary terms. Deaths, suffering, shortening of human life and production life,
invalidity , psychological, etc. consequences cannot be included.
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? brucellosis
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1960
monetary units ? Kcs
1. value of preventive
investigations ?
3000000
2. value of diseased persons'
investigations ? 1500000
3. value of specific
vaccinations ?
60000
4. value of preventive
treatments ?
640000
5. value of curative
treatments ?
2800000
6. value of sanitation
actions ?
35000
7. value of hospitalization
(except costs mentioned above) ? 3600000
8. loss due to working
incapacity ?
2000000
9. cost of specific control
measures ?
26000000
10. value of compensations and
subsidies ? 3500000
11. cost of public health
services ?
1500000
12. cost of public health
extension work ?
640000
13. cost of specific research
and training ? 700000
14. loss due to epidemiolog.
limitations and prohibitions ? 1450000
15. other costs related to
disease(s) and epi. measures ?
5800000
RESULT:
L o s s / C o s t T y p e Kcs Proportion Percentage
1.Preventive investigations 3000000 0.0564
5.6364
2.Dis.persons'
investigations 1500000 0.0282
2.8182
3.Vaccinations 60000 0.0011 0.1127
4.Preventive treatments 640000 0.0120
1.2024
5.Curative treatments 2800000 0.0526
5.2607
6.Sanitation 35000
0.0007
0.0658
7.Hospitalization 3600000
0.0676 6.7637
8.Working incapacity 2000000 0.0376
3.7576
9.Control measures 26000000 0.4885
48.8492
10.Compensation/subsidies 3500000 0.0658
6.5759
11.Public health services 1500000
0.0282 2.8182
12.Public health extension 640000 0.0120
1.2024
13.Research and training 700000 0.0132
1.3152
14.Epid.limitation/prohibition 1450000 0.0272
2.7243
15.Others 5800000 0.1090 10.8971
T o t a l 53225000 1.0000
100.0000
6.3-LOSSES DUE TO SPECIFIC
DISEASE ACCORDING TO AVERAGE PARAMETERS
(Included quantifiable losses only)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1960
lost product, product measure
units ? meat,kg
monetary units ? Kcs
Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data on
diseased animals occurrence ? a
number of specifically
diseased animals ?
634402
average (estimated,
standardized) percentage of specific
fatality ? 3
average (estimated,
standardized) loss in products of one specifically diseased animal in product
measure units ? 50
average (estimated,
standardized) loss in weight of one
specifically diseased animal in kg ? 40
average price of one animal
of the same species/category ? 5000
average price of one unit of the given
product ? 30
average price of one kg of
animal weight ? 15
RESULT:
Number of specifically
diseased animals: 634402
Estimated number of deaths
= 19032
animals of value =
95160302 Kcs
Estimated loss of 30768496 kg of meat of value =
923054909 Kcs
Estimated loss of weight
= 24614797 kg of
value = 369221963 Kcs
T o t a l estimated loss =
1387437175 Kcs
6.3-LOSSES DUE TO SPECIFIC
DISEASE ACCORDING TO AVERAGE PARAMETERS
(Included quantifiable losses only)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1960
lost product, product measure
units ? meat,kg
monetary units ? Kcs
Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data on diseased animals
occurrence ? r
number of animals existing in
the given period ? 3008132
percentage of specifically
diseased animals ? 21.09
average (estimated,
standardized) percentage of specific
fatality ? 3
average (estimated,
standardized) loss in products of one
specifically diseased animal in product measure units ? 50
average (estimated,
standardized) loss in weight of one
specifically diseased animal in kg ? 40
average price of one animal
of the same species/category ? 5000
average price of one unit of
the given product ? 30
average price of one kg of
animal weight ? 15
RESULT:
Number of specifically
diseased animals: 634415
Estimated number of deaths
= 19032
animals of value =
95162255 Kcs
Estimated loss of 30769130 kg of meat of value
= 923073916 Kcs
Estimated loss of weight
= 24615304 kg of value
= 369229566 Kcs
T o t a l estimated loss =
1387465739 Kcs
6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND
CONDEMNATION OF ANIMAL CARCASSES
This subprogramme calculates losses:
1) in block
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? outbreak in
Czech Republic,1958
average live weight of
animals in kg ? 400
monetary units ? Kcs average price of one kg of live
weight ? 22
number of naturally dead
diseased animals ? 43
number of destroyed diseased
and suspect animals ? 143
number of condemned
carcasses of slaughtered diseased
animals ? 2
RESULT:
Lo s s Type Number of Weight
Value in Proportion
animals in kg
Kcs
Naturally dead 43
17200
378400 0.2287
Destroyed 143
57200
1258400 0.7606
Condemned 2
800 17600 0.0106
T o t a l 188 75200
1654400 1.0000
6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND
CONDEMNATION OF ANIMAL CARCASSES
This subprogramme calculates losses:
2) according to place
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? general
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,calves
place, period ? Czech
Republic (soc.sector),1982
average live weight of
animals in kg ? 50
monetary units ? Kcs average price of one kg of live
weight ? 20
List subterritory or subperiod
names (up to 15 characters), numbers of dead, sanitary destroyed, condemned diseased
animals' carcasses:
1 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? Prague,649,0,1004
2 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? Central Bohemia,10438,0,3580
3 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? South Bohemia,8090,0,3055
4 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? West Bohemia,6636,0,2944
5 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? North Bohemia,4158,0,1365
6 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? East Bohemia,10262,0,4912
7 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? South Moravia,11814,0,5669
8 subter., dead, destroyed,
condemned ? North Moravia,6536,0,1971
RESULT:
Subterritory Dead
Dest- Con- Total
Weight
Value in
Animals
royed demned Number
in kg
Kcs
Prague 649 0 1004
1653 82650
1653000
Central Bohemia 10438
0 3580 14018
700900 14018000
South Bohemia 8090 0 3055
11145 557250
11145000
West Bohemia 6636 0 2944
9580 479000
9580000
North Bohemia 4158 0 1365
5523 276150
5523000
East Bohemia 10262 0 4912
15174 758700
15174000
South Moravia 11814 0 5669
17483 874150 17483000
North Moravia 6536 0 1971
8507 425350 8507000
T o t a l 58583 0 24500
83083 415415 83083000
Subterritory L
o s t v a l u e s in
---------------------------
Proportion Percentage
Prague 0.0199 1.9896
Central Bohemia 0.1687 16.8723
South Bohemia 0.1341 13.4143
West Bohemia 0.1153 11.5306
North Bohemia 0.0665 6.6476
East Bohemia 0.1826 18.2637
South Moravia 0.2104 21.0428
North Moravia 0.1024 10.2392
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND
CONDEMNATION OF ANIMAL CARCASSES
This subprogramme calculates losses: 3) according
to time
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? general
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,calves
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1986-1989
average live weight of
animals in kg ? 50
monetary units (up to 10
characters !) ? Kcs average price of one kg of live
weight ? 20
List subterritory or subperiod
names, numbers of dead, sanitary destroyed, condemned diseased animals'
carcasses:
1 subperiod, dead, destroyed,
condemned ? 1986,35145,0,20394
2 subperiod, dead, destroyed,
condemned ? 1987,36342,0,20364
3 subperiod, dead, destroyed,
condemned ? 1988,35108,0,20515
4 subperiod, dead, destroyed,
condemned ? 1989,37303,0,25508
RESULT:
S u b p e r i o d Dead Dest-
Con- Total
Weight
Value in
Animals royed demned
Number
in kg
Kcs
1986 35145
0 20394
55539 2776950 55539000
1987 36342
0 20364 56706
2835300 56706000
1988 35108
0
20515 55623 2781150 55623000
1989 37303
0 25508 62811 3140550 62811000
T o t a l 143898
0 86781 230679
11533950 230679000
S u b p e r i o d L o s t
v a l u e s in
----------------------------
Proportion Percentage
1986 0.2408 24.0763
1987 0.2458 24.5822
1988 0.2411 24.1127
1989 0.2723 27.2287
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples:
- period for reaching
production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling),
yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool, honey
etc.);
- production per animal, per
monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower
unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per time unit, per other input
unit;
- analogical inputs per one
production unit;
- culled animals, weight at a
given age, stage of fattening, age/duration
of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body weight;
- qualitatively classified
products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;
- ability to work, to provide
other required performance;
- herd composition related to
animal utility, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) One indicator in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows
place, period ? foci in Czech
Republic,1957
monetary units ? Kcs
selected animal utility
indicator? milk loss
selected indicator measure
units ? liters
price of one unit of selected
indicator ? 2.5
number of diseased
animals ? 1925
average value of selected
indicator in measure units
in healthy animals ? 0
in diseased animals ? 59.6
RESULT:
Difference of average values
of milk loss between healthy and
diseased animals = 59.60 liters
T o t a l estimated loss =
114730 liters of value = 286825 Kcs
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples:
- period for reaching
production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling),
yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool, honey
etc.);
- production per animal, per
monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per
time unit, per other input unit;
- analogical inputs per one
production unit;
- culled animals, weight at a
given age, stage of fattening, age/duration of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body
weight;
- qualitatively classified
products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;
- ability to work, to provide
other required performance;
- herd composition related to
animal utility, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) One indicator in more than one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? chronic
respiratory disease
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,piglets
place, period ? Farm J.,1960
monetary units ? Kcs
selected animal utility
indicator? weight at 56 days age
selected indicator measure
units ? kg
price of one unit of selected
indicator ? 25
List data in following
sequence: subterritory, number of
diseased animals, average value of
selected indicator (in measure units) in
healthy animals, in diseased animals:
1 ? Unit A.,30,15.2,11
2 ? Unit B.,45,13.7,10.
RESULT:
Subterritory Diseased
Average Average
Total
Value of
Animals
Value in Value in
Diffe- Loss in
Number Healthy
Diseased rence
Kcs
Unit A. 30 15.20 11.00
126 3150
Unit B. 45 13.70 10.50
144 3600
T o t a l value of estimated loss = 6750 Kcs
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples:
- period for reaching
production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling),
yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool, honey
etc.);
- production per animal, per
monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per
time unit, per other input unit;
- analogical inputs per one
production unit;
- culled animals, weight at a
given age, stage of fattening, age/duration of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body
weight;
- qualitatively classified
products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;
- ability to work, to provide
other required performance;
- herd composition related to
animal utility, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) More indicators in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows
place, period ? Province
V.,1972
monetary units ? dollars
number of diseased animals ?
3502
List data in following sequence: selected indicator, measure units, price, average value of selected indicator in
measure units in healthy animals, in
diseased animals:
1 ? body weight,kg,4,450,400
2 ? milk yied,liters,1,5400,4600
3 ? milk condemned,liters,1,0,21.5
RESULT:
Indicator Units
Price I
n d i
c a t
o r Total Value of
per Average in Average in
Diffe- Loss in
Unit Healthy Diseased
rence
dollars
body weight kg
4.00
450.00 400.00
175100 700400
milk yied liters 1.00
5400.00 4600.00 2801600
2801600
milk condemn liters
1.00
0.00
21.50 75293 75293
T o t a l value of estimated loss = 3577293 dollars
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples:
- period for reaching
production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling),
yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool, honey
etc.);
- production per animal, per
monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower
unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per time unit, per other input
unit;
- analogical inputs per one
production unit;
- culled animals, weight at a
given age, stage of fattening, age/duration of breeding/fattening to achieve a
given body weight;
- qualitatively classified
products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;
- ability to work, to provide
other required performance;
- herd composition related to
animal utility, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 4) One indicator in more than one subperiod
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Region
N.,1990
monetary units ? dollars
selected animal utility
indicator? milk loss
selected indicator measure
units ? liters
price of one unit of selected
indicator ? 0.85
List data in following sequence:
subperiod name, number of
diseased animals, average value of selected indicator (in measure units) in healthy animals, in diseased animals:
1 ? May 1990,100,0,30
2 ? June 1990,200,0,20
3 ? July 1990,150,0,15
4 ? August 1990,100,0,17
5 ? Sept.1990,450,0,23
6 ? Oct.1990,300,0,20
RESULT:
Subperiod Diseased Average Average
Total Value of
Animals Value in Value in
Diffe-
Loss in
Number Healthy Diseased
rence dollars
May 1990 100 0.00 30.00
3000 2550
June 1990 200 0.00 20.00
4000 3400
July 1990 150 0.00 15.00 2250 1913
August 1990 100 0.00 17.00
1700 1445
Sept.1990 450 0.00 23.00
10350 8798
Oct.1990 300 0.00 20.00
6000 5100
T o t a l value of estimated loss = 23206 dollars
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples: number of
new born animals, new born or weaned per
mother, per a given period, per a given
space; number of offsprings per
parturition; fertility rate, pregnancy
rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate; non-pregnancy rate, service period,
parturition interval; replacement rate,
age at sexual maturity, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) One indicator in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? sterility
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1971
monetary units ? Kcs
selected indicator of animal
reproduction ? calves per cow
selected indicator measure
units ? calves
price of one unit of selected
indicator ? 2000
number of diseased
animals ? 194084
average value of selected
indicator in measure units in healthy animals
? 1
RESULT:
Difference of average
values of calves per cow between healthy and diseased animals =
1.00 calves
T o t a l estimated
loss = 194084 calves
of value = 388168000 Kcs
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples: number of
new born animals, new born or weaned per
mother, per a given period, per a given
space; number of offsprings per
parturition; fertility rate, pregnancy
rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate; non-pregnancy rate, service period,
parturition interval; replacement rate,
age at sexual maturity, etc.
This subprogramme calculates: 2) One
indicator in more than one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? vibriosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place, period ? Ranch U.,2002
monetary units ? dollars
selected indicator of animal
reproduction ? service period
selected indicator measure
units ? days
price of one unit of selected
indicator ? 13
List data in following
sequence: place name, number of diseased
animals, average value of selected
indicator (in measure units) in healthy
animals, in diseased animals:
1 ? Farm T.,8,58,89
2 ? Farm R.,67,64,98
3 ? Fram F.,20,65,87
4 ? Farm K.,45,59,86
RESULT:
Place Diseased I n d i c a t o r Total
Value of
Animals Average
in Diffe-
Loss in
Number Healthy
Diseased rence dollars
Farm T. 8
58.00 89.00
248 3224
Farm R. 67
64.00
98.00 2278
29614
Fram F. 20
65.00
87.00 440
5720
Farm K. 45
59.00
86.00 1215 15795
T o t a l
value of estimated loss = 54353
dollars
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples: number of
new born animals, new born or weaned per
mother, per a given period, per a given
space; number of offsprings per
parturition; fertility rate, pregnancy
rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate; non-pregnancy rate, service period,
parturition interval; replacement rate,
age at sexual maturity, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) More indicators in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? trichomoniasis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place, period ? Ranch E.,1974
monetary units ? dollars
number of diseased animals ? 250
List data in following sequence:
selected indicator, measure units,
price, average value of selected indicator (in measure units) in healthy animals, in diseased animals:
1 ? service per.,days,10,60,90
2 ? calves/cow,calves,1000,0.9,0.7
RESULT:
Indicator Units Price
I n
d i c
a t o r Total
Value of
per Average in Average in
Diffe- Loss in
Unit Healthy Diseased
rence dollars
service per. days
10.00 60.00 90.00
7500 75000
calves/cow calves
1000.00 0.90 0.70 50 50000
T o t a l value of estimated loss = 125000 dollars
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples: number of
new born animals, new born or weaned per
mother, per a given period, per a given
space; number of offsprings per
parturition; fertility rate, pregnancy
rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate; non-pregnancy rate, service period,
parturition interval; replacement rate,
age at sexual maturity, etc.
This subprogramme
calculates: 4) One indicator in more than one subperiod
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? sterility
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1971-1975
monetary units ? Kcs
selected indicator of animal
reproduction ? unborn calves per 100
cows
selected indicator measure
units ? unborn calves
price of one unit of selected
indicator ? 2000
List data in following
sequence: subperiod name, number of
diseased animals, average value of selected indicator (in measure units) in healthy animals, in diseased animals:
1 ? 1971,10,0,1
2 ? 1972,9,0,1
3 ? 1973,8,0,1
4 ? 1974,7,0,1
5 ? 1975,6,0,1
RESULT:
Subperiod Diseased I n
d i c a t o r Total
Value of
Animals Average
in Diffe- Loss in
Number Healthy
Diseased rence
Kcs
1971 10 0.00 1.00 10 20000
1972 9
0.00 1.00 9
18000
1973 8 0.00
1.00 8 16000
1974 7 0.00 1.00 7
14000
1975 6 0.00 1.00 6 12000
T o t a l
value of estimated loss = 80000
Kcs per 100 cows
6.7-INPUTS BENEFIT/LOSSES IN
HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS
This programme calculates inputs'
benefit/losses 1) using method I. (based on average number of healthy and diseased animals and average inputs in healthy and
diseased animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? mastitis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows
place, period ? Ranch S.,2002
production input indicator ?
antibiotics input indicator measure units ? grammes
monetary units ?
dollars price of one
measure unit of input indicator ?
5.45
average production input (in
indicator measure units) a) per one healthy animal ? 0
b) per one diseased animal ? 62
average number of healthy
animals in the population ? 345
average number of diseased
animals in the population ? 162
RESULT:
Estimated benefit due to
minor inputs in 345 healthy animals
= 21390 grammes of antibiotics of value
= 116575 dollars
Estimated loss due to major
inputs in 162 diseased animals =
10044 grammes of antibiotics of
value =
54739 dollars
6.7-INPUTS BENEFIT/LOSSES IN
HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS
This programme calculates inputs'
benefit/losses 2) using method II. (based on number of diseased animals and average inputs in healthy and diseased
animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? mastitis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows
place, period ? Ranch R.,2003
production input indicator ?
antibiotics input indicator measure units ? grammes
monetary units ? dollars
price of
one measure unit of input indicator ?
5.45
total number of diseased
animals ? 162
average production input (in
indicator measure units) per one healthy
animal ? 0
per one diseased animal ? 62
RESULT:
Average difference of
antibiotics values between healthy and
diseased animals = 62.0000 grammes =
337.90 dollars
Estimated total loss = 10044 grammes of value
= 54739 dollars
6.7-INPUTS BENEFIT/LOSSES IN
HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS
This programme calculates inputs'
benefit/losses 3) using method III. (based on average number of all animals and average inputs in all, healthy and diseased
animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? general
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,10-100 kg weight
place, period ? Czech
republic,1985 (one day)
production input indicator ?
concentrated feedstuff consumption por 1 kg gain
input indicator measure units ? kg monetary units ? Kcs
price of one measure unit of
input indicator ? 6
average production input (in
indicator measure units): per one animal
in the given population ? 3.52
per one diseased animal ? 4.1
per one healthy animal ? 3.3
average total number of animals
of the given population ? 3039000
RESULT:
Estimated benefit due to minor
inputs in production by healthy animals =
1762619 kg of concentrated feedstuff consumption por 1 kg gain of value
= 10575718 Kcs
Estimated loss due to major
inputs in production by diseased animals =
668580 kg of concentrated feedstuff consumption por 1 kg gain of value
= 4011480 Kcs
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 1) losses according to animal diseases
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
domestic animals,all
place, period ? Spain,1980
type of losses ? overall
measure units ? 1000 pesetas
List data, values in measure
units:
1 disease, losses value ? bovine tbc,3734
2 disease, losses value ? brucellosis,10658
3 disease, losses value ? bov.mastitis,18390
4 disease, losses value ? ov/cap agalact.,3520
5 disease, losses value ? Afr.swine fever,1996
6 disease, losses value ? swine
enz.pneum.,2875
7 disease, losses value ?
pneumoenter.bov.,2763
8 disease, losses value ?
dif.parasitosis,27465
RESULT:
Disease(s) L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
1000
peseta
bovine tbc 3734.00
0.0523
5.2296
brucellosis 1 0658.00 0.1493 14.9270
bov.mastiti 18390.00
0.2576
25.7559
ov/cap agalact 3520.00 0.0493
4.9299
Afr.swine fever 1996.00 0.0280
2.7955
swine enz.pneum. 2875.00
0.0403 4.0266
pneumoenter.bov. 2763.00
0.0387
3.8697
dif.parasitosis 27465.00 0.3847 38.4658
T o t a l 71401.00 1.0000
100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 2) losses according to animal species
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? general
place, period ? the whole
world,1980
type of losses ? mortality
due to diseases
measure units ? metric tons
List data, values in measure
units:
1 species, losses value ? cattle,12736000
2 species, losses value ? pigs,8960000
3 species, losses value ? sheep,1500000
4 species, losses value ? goats,516000
RESULT:
Species L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
metric tons
cattle 12736000.00 0.5371 53.7112
pigs 8960000.00 0.3779 37.7868
sheep 1500000.00 0.0633 6.3259
goats 516000.00 0.0218 2.1761
T o t a 23712000.00 1.0000 100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 3) losses
according to place
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? general
mortality
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,calves
place, period ? Czech
republic,calves
type of losses ? dead and
confiscated calves
measure units ? calves
List data , values in measure
units:
1 place, losses value ? Prague,465
2 place, losses value ? Central Bohemia,9463
3 place, losses value ? South Bohemia,11042
4 place, losses value ? West Bohemia,8156
5 place, losses value ? North Bohemia,4264
6 place, losses value ? East Bohemia,9172
7 place, losses value ? South Moravia,12129
8 place, losses value ? North Moravia,8120
RESULT:
Place L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
calves
Prague 465.00 0.0074
0.7403
Central Bohemia 9463.00 0.1507 15.0658
South Bohemia 11042.00 0.1758 17.5797
West Bohemia 8156.00 0.1298
12.9850
North Bohemia 4264.00 0.0679
6.7886
East Bohemia 9172.00 0.1460 14.6025
South Moravia 12129.00 0.1931 19.3103
North Moravia 8120.00
0.1293 12.9277
T o t a l 62811.00 1.0000
100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 4) losses
according to time
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
Czechoslovakia,1924-1934
type of losses ? morbidity
measure units ? diseased animals
List data, values in measure
units:
1 subperiod, losses value ? 1924,124143
2 subperiod, losses value ? 1925,54497
3 subperiod, losses value ? 1926,52659
4 subperiod, losses value ? 1927,65297
5 subperiod, losses value ? 1928,14206
6 subperiod, losses value ? 1929,57963
7 subperiod, losses value ? 1930,44404
8 subperiod, losses value ? 1931,92280
9 subperiod, losses value ? 1932,60846
10 subperiod, losses value ? 1933,12970
11 subperiod, losses value ? 1934,2446
RESULT:
Subperiod L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
Dis. animals
1924 124143.00 0.2134
21.3410
1925 54497.00
0.0937 9.3684
1926 52659.00 0.0905 9.0524
1927 65297.00 0.1122
11.2250
1928 14206.00 0.0244 2.4421
1929 57963.00 0.0996 9.9642
1930 44404.00 0.0763 7.6333
1931 92280.00 0.1586 15.8635
1932 60846.00 0.1046
10.4598
1933 12970.00 0.0223 2.2296
1934 2446.00
0.0042 0.4205
T o t a l 581711.00 1.0000
100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 3) losses
according to their types
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ?
ruminants+pigs
place, period ?
Czechoslovakia (32 outbreaks),1959-1960
types of losses ? due to
measures within affected villages
measure units ? Kcs
List data, values in measure
units:
1 loss type, loss value ?
product.management,646317
2 loss type, loss value ? in offtake,187962
3 loss type, loss value ? in
agro-activities,190330
4 loss type, loss value ? due to pasture
prohib.,145281
5 loss type, loss value ? anim.movement
proh.,43006
6 loss type, loss value ? insemination
proh.,250925
7 loss type, loss value ? in food
provision,88734
8 loss type, loss value ? culture
activ.abol.,24451
RESULT:
Loss type L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
Kcs
product.management 646317.00 0.4098
40.9838
in offtake 187962.00
0.1192
11.9189
in agro-activities 190330.00 0.1207 12.0691
due to pasture prohi 145281.00 0.0921 9.2125
anim.movement proh. 43006.00 0.0273 2.7271
insemination proh. 250925.00 0.1591
15.9115
in food provision 88734.00 0.0563 5.6267
culture activ.abol. 24451.00 0.0155 1.5505
T o t a l 1577006.00 1.0000
100.0000
6.9-COST OF POPULATION HEALTH
MASS ACTIONS
INPUT DATA:
action type(s) ? vaccination
against foot-and-mouth disease
place, period ? Czech republic,1960
monetary units ? Kcs
material or service ? FMD AO
vaccine measure units of material or service ? ml
total number of actions ? 1966000
average dose (consumption) of
the material for one action in measure units
? 5
price of one measure unit of
the material ? 4
average time needed for one
action in minutes (including preparatory
activity) ? 5
personnel average salary per
one hour ? 10
transport average cost for
one action ? 4
total other costs for the
given actions ? 400000
RESULT:
Total consumption of the
used material = 9830000 ml
Total cost of used
material =
39320000 Kcs
Total time consumed = 163833
hours
Total salaries = 1638333
Kcs
Total transport cost = 7864000
Kcs
Other costs = 400000
Kcs
T o t
a l costs = 49222333
Kcs
6.10-ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MEASURES' COSTS
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? hog cholera species, category(ies) ? pigs,all
place, period ? Province
R.,1987
monetary units ? dollars
1.total value of animals
naturally dead due to disease ?
25000
2.total value of condemned
slaughtered animals ?
35000
3.total value of condemned
products of animal origin ? 1200
4.total value of lost live weight ? 30000
5.total value of non-born
animals ?
15000
6.total value of non-produced
animal products ? 30000
7.total value of loss due to
minor quality of animal products ?
8.total value of feeds
non-converted in animal products ?
12000
9.total value of loss due to
trade/export limitations ? 50000
10.total value of
compensations and subsidies
? 35000
11.cost of vet. services
(diagnosis,treatment,control,etc.) ?
20000
12.cost of veterinary
material (vaccines,drugs,equipment,etc.)? 15400
13.total cost of
non-veterinary manpower and services
? 3200
14.total cost of transport
related to epi. measures ? 5400
15.other total costs related
to disease(s) and epi. measures ? 7600
RESULT:
L o s s / C o s t T y p e
dollars
Proportion Percentage
1.Naturally dead animals 25000
0.0878 8.7781
2.Condemnation of carcasses 35000 0.1229 12.2893
3.Condemnation of products 1200 0.0042 0.4213
4.Lost of live weight 30000 0.1053 10.5337
5.Non-born animals 15000
0.0527 5.2669
6.Non-produced products 30000 0.1053 10.5337
7.Reduction of products
quality 0 0.0000 0.0000
8.Feeds non-converted in
products 12000 0.0421
4.2135
9.Trade/export limitations 50000
0.1756 17.5562
10.Compensation/subsidies 35000 0.1229
12.2893
11.Veterinary services 20000 0.0702
7.0225
12.Veterinary material 15400
0.0541 5.4073
13.Non-vet.
manpower/services 3200 0.0112 1.1236
14.Transport related
measures 5400 0.0190 1.8961
15.Others 7600
0.0267 2.6685
T o t a l L o s s
284800 1.0000 100.0000
6.11-BLANC SUMMARY TABLES OF
ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE CONSEQUENCES
This subprogramme processes
data on: 1) total values of individual types of disease consequences
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? brucellosis species, category(ies) ? cattle,all
place, period ? Region
Y.,1978
measure units ? dollars
List data - loss type , total
value:
1 ? milk loss,45540
2 ? meat loss,34200
3 ? sterility,127500
RESULT:
L o s s T y p e Value in Proportion Percentage
dollars
1 milk loss 45540.00 0.2197
21.9745
2 meat loss 34200.00 0.1650 16.5026
3 sterility 127500.00 0.6152 61.5229
T o t a l 207240.00 1.0000
100.0000
6.11-BLANC SUMMARY TABLES OF
ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE CONSEQUENCES
This subprogramme processes
data on: 2) disease individual consequences based on loss average values
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? fasciolosis species, category(ies) ? sheep,all
place, period ? Ranch T.,2001
measure units ? dollars
List data - loss type, units name, number of units, average value in
measure units:
1 ?
mortality,animal,450,200
2 ? condemned
livers,kg,3400,3.5
3 ? body weight
lost,kg,7000,3.2
RESULT:
Loss type Units
Number
One unit Total
Percentage
Name
of
Value in Loss
in
Units
dollars
dollars
mortality animal 450.00 200.00
90000
72.4055
condemned liver kg
3400.00 3.50
11900 9.5736
body weight los kg
7000.00 3.20
22400 18.0209
T o t a l 124300
100.0000
7-INVESTIGATIONS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH SITUATION
=========================================================
1-Evaluation of diagnostic method
quality
2-Indicators of animal population
investigation grade
3-Proportions of different types of
diagnostic tests
4-Infectious disease evidence and
notification grades
5-Positivity and negativity of test results
6-Agreement between test results of
two investigators
7-Concordance grade of compared tests'
results
8-Summary table of animal disease
investigations
9-Summary table of animal disease
investigation results
10-Population/sample multi-etiological
investigations
11-Testing parasitic diseases
extensity and intensity
12-Testing infection intensity grades
in animals
13-Comparison of two tests acc.
specificity/sensitivity
14-Relationship of positively and
negatively tested animals
15-Predictive value according to
Bayes' theorem
7.1-EVALUATION OF DIAGNOSTIC
METHOD QUALITY
Note: Usually requiring data based on scientific experiments.
INPUT DATA:
diagnostic method and its aim ?
bovine brucellosis agglutination
species ? cattle category(ies) ? all
place ? acc.Martin et al. time ? 1986
T r u
e s t a t u s
affected non-affected
+ - Totals
|--------------|--------------|
+ |
1860 | 480
| 2340
Test Results --------------|--------------|
- |
1140 | 96652
| 97792
|--------------|--------------|
otals 3000 97132 100132
RESULT:
Diagnostic method sensitivity
= 0.6200 =
62.0000 %
Diagnostic method
specificity = 0.9951 =
99.5058 %
Predictive value of true
positive results = 0.7949
= 79.4872 %
Predictive value of true
negative results = 0.9883
= 98.8343 %
Predictive value of false
positive results = 0.2051
= 20.5128 %
Predictive value of false
negative results = 0.0117
= 1.1657 %
Diagnostic method true results
rate (accuracy) = 0.9838
= 98.3821 %
Diagnostic method false results
rate (inaccuracy) = 0.0162 =
1.6179 %
Diagnostic method efficiency
index = 0.6169
7.2-INDICATORS OF ANIMAL
POPULATION INVESTIGATION GRADE
INPUT DATA:
investigation objectives ?
discover tbc cases in cattle
diagnostic test ? PPD
tuberculinization
v a l u e of diagnostic method efficiency index (in
form of a proportion) ? 0.95
species ? cattle category(ies) ? all
place ? Czech Republic time ? 1967
total number of animals of
the given population ? 3500000
total number of tested
animals ? 3200000
total number of tests
(investigations) ? 6109595
number of existing
specifically diseased animals ?
450000
number of animals in specific disease
foci ? 1500000
number of exposed
specifically healthy animals outside of
foci ? 1900000
number of newly discovered
cases (diseased animals) ? 150000
RESULT:
Tested animals rate = 0.9143
Percentage of tested
animals =
91.4286
Ratio of tested/diseased
animals =
7.1111
Ratio of diseased/tested animals = 0.1406
Ratio of
tested/intrafocal animals = 2.1333
Ratio of tested/exposed
healthy animals =
1.0847
Ratio of
tests/population =
1.7456
Ratio of
tests/investigated animals (retesting
rate) = 1.9092
Ratio of tests/newly
discovered cases =
40.7306
Animal population
investigation grade = 0.8686
7.3-PROPORTIONS OF DIFFERENT
TYPES OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS
INPUT DATA:
testing object/objective ?
animal disease control
place ? Czech Republic
(diag.laboratories) time ? 1982
List data:
1 test, number of investigations ?
pat.ant.,188472
2 test, number of investigations ?
pat.histol.,33195
3 test, number of investigations ?
bacteriolog.,1116395
4 test, number of investigations ?
mycolog.,67916
5 test, number of investigations ?
virolog.,519211
6 test, number of investigations ? serolog.,952705
7 test, number of investigations ?
parasitol.,436244
8 test, number of investigations ?
anim.nutrition,41618
9 test, number of investigations ?
haematolog.,28650
10 test, number of investigations ?
chem./toxicol.,160738
11 test, number of investigations ? food
hygiene,292962
RESULT:
Test Number of Proportion Percentage
investigations
pat.ant. 188472
0.0653 6.5319
pat.histol. 33195
0.0115 1.1504
bacteriolog. 1116395 0.3869 38.6912
mycolog. 67916 0.0235
2.3538
virolog. 519211 0.1799 17.9944
serolog. 952705 0.2482
24.8223
parasitol. 436244 0.1512 15.1190
anim.nutrition 41618
0.0144 1.4424
haematolog. 28650
0.0099 0.9929
chem./toxicol. 160738 0.0557 5.5707
food hygiene 292962 0.1015 10.1533
T o t a l 3838106
1.0000 100.0000
7.4-INFECTIOUS DISEASE
EVIDENCE AND NOTIFICATION GRADES
This subprogramme calculates evidence/notification of 1) specifically
infected animals
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? brucellosis
(B.melitensis) species, category(ies) ? sheep,all
place, time ? Region R.,1977
total number of specifically
infected animals ? 4567
number of clinically
recognized infected animals ?
786
number of microbiologically
recognized infected animals ? 234
number of serologically
recognized infected animals ? 3780
number of allergically
recognized infected animals ? 567
number of haematologically
recognized infected animals ?
number of pathologically
recognized infected animals ? 234
number of infected animals
recognized by other method(s) ?
number of notified (reported)
infected animals ? 4213
RESULT:
Specifically infected animals
evidence/notification rates:
Clinical evidence
rate =
0.1721
Microbiological
evidence rate = 0.0512
Serological evidence
rate =
0.8277
Allergical evidence
rate =
0.1242
Pathological evidence
rate =
0.0512
Specific disease
notification rate = 0.9225
7.4-INFECTIOUS DISEASE
EVIDENCE AND NOTIFICATION GRADES
This subprogramme calculates evidence/notification of 2) outbreaks
(foci) of specific disease
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
species, category(ies) ? ruminants+pigs
place, time ? Province
T.,1987
total number of specific
disease(s) outbreaks (foci) ? 345
number of clinically
recognized outbreaks ?
320
number of microbiologically
recognized outbreaks ? 45
number of serologically
recognized outbreaks ? 12
number of allergically
recognized outbreaks ?
number of haematologically
recognized outbreaks ?
number of pathologically
recognized outbreaks ? 56
number of outbreaks
recognized by other method(s) ?
number of notified (reported)
specific outbreaks ? 336
RESULT:
Specific disease outbreaks
evidence/notification rates:
Clinical evidence
rate =
0.9275
Microbiological
evidence rate = 0.1304
Serological evidence
rate =
0.0348
Pathological evidence
rate =
0.1623
Specific disease outbreaks
notification rate = 0.9739
7.5-POSITIVITY AND NEGATIVITY
OF INVESTIGATIONS RESULTS
Note: indeterminate = suspect, provisional, unconfirmed.
INPUT DATA:
investigation test ? bovine
brucellosis serology
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ? Province
O.,2004
number of tested
animals ?
67543
number of tested animals
with positive result ? 1030
number of tested animals
with indeterminate result ? 890
number of tested animals
with negative result ? 65623
number of tests
(investigations) ?
78634
number of positive
tests ? 1200
number of indeterminate
tests ? 1100
number of negative
tests ?
76334
number of animals found
healthy ? 63000
number of animals found
indeterminate ? 1000
number of animals found
diseased ? 5543
RESULT:
Positively tested
animals rate =
0.0152
Indeterminately tested
animals rate =
0.0132
Negatively tested
animals rate =
0.9716
Positive tests rate =
0.0153
Indeterminate tests
rate =
0.0140
Negative tests rate = 0.9708
Rate of tested animals
found healthy =
0.9327
Rate of tested animals
found indeterminate = 0.0148
Rate of tested animals
found diseased =
0.0821
7.6-AGREEMENT BETWEEN TEST
RESULTS OF TWO INVESTIGATORS (Ref.:Martin et al.)
(comparison of results obtained
in the same animals or in the same samples by two investigators - A and B)
INPUT DATA:
objectives of investigation ?
front limb lameness
test type ? clinical animals/specimens ? horses
place, time ? Region H.,1987
investigators A,B ? Clinician
F.,Clinician O.
number of identical
negative results by A and B ? 58
number of results: positive
by A and negative by B ? 4
number of results: negative
by A and positive by B ? 12
number of identical
positive results by A and by B ? 26
RESULT:
Total number of tested
animals (specimens) = 100
Grade of agreement between
test results of the two
investigators = 0.8400
= 84.0000 %
Intra-groupal correlation
coefficient - kappa =
0.6460
Chance proportion agreement
(both +) =
0.1140
Chance proportion agreement
(both -) =
0.4340
Chance proportion
agreement =
0.5480
Observed minus chance
agreement =
0.2920
Maximum possible agreement
beyond chance level = 0.4520
(The result shows a
limited disagreement.)
7.7-CONCORDANCE OF COMPARED
TESTS RESULTS
(Ref.: Martin et al.)
(comparison of results obtained
in the same animals or in the same
samples using two different tests - A and B)
INPUT DATA:
investigation type ? Aujeszky
disease tests animals/specimens ? pigs
place, time ? District H.
test A ? international
standard
test B ? other diagnostic
method
number of identical
negative results by A and B ?
862
number of results:positive
by A and negative by B ? 58
number of results:negative
by A and positive by B ? 38
number of identical
positive results by A and B ?
42
RESULT:
Total number of tested
animals (specimens) = 1000
Concordance grade of results
obtained by two different tests =
0.9040 = 90.40
%
Intragroupal correlation
coefficient - kappa =
0.4146
Chance proportion agreement
(both +) =
0.0080
Chance proportion agreement
(both -) =
0.8280
Chance proportion
agreement =
0.8360
Observed minus chance
agreement =
0.0680
Maximum possible agreement
beyond chance level = 0.1640
(The result shows a
limited disagreement.)
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 1) investigations
according to diseases/forms
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1982
species, category(ies) ?
poultry,all
type of investigations ?
serology
measure units ? tests
List data:
1 disease/form, number of investigations ?
Salmonellosis pullorum,701936
2 disease/form, number of investigations ?
Other salmonelloses,199199
3 disease/form, number of investigations ?
Newcastle disease,319592
4 disease/form, number of investigations ?
Mycoplasmosis,135005
RESULT:
Disease Investigations Proportion Percentage
1 Salmonellosis pullorum 701936 0.5178 51.7754
2 Other salmonelloses 199199 0.1469 14.6931
3 Newcastle disease 319592 0.2357 23.5734
4 Mycoplasmosis 135005
0.0996
9.9581
T o t a l 1355732 1.0000 100.0000
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 2) investigations
according to species/category(ies)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)? avian
tuberculosis in mammals
place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1982
type of investigations ?
simultaneous tuberculinization
measure units ? tested
animals
List data:
1 species/categ., number of investigations ?
cattle,333376
2 species/categ., number of investigations ?
pigs,163873
3 species/categ., number of investigations ?
sheep,16635
RESULT:
Species/category(ies) Investigations Proportion Percentage
1 cattle 333376 0.6487 64.8738
2 pigs 163873 0.3189 31.8891
3 sheep 16635 0.0324 3.2371
T o t a l 513884 1.0000
100.0000
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 3) investigations
according to place/territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)? bovine
tuberculosis
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1989
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of investigations ?
simple tuberculinization
measure units ? individual
tests
List data:
1 subterritory, number of investigations ?
Prague,16996
2 subterritory, number of investigations ?
Central Bohemia,524128
3 subterritory, number of investigations ?
South Bohemia,423099
4 subterritory, number of investigations ? West
Bohemia,406461
5 subterritory, number of investigations ?
North Bohemia,286868
6 subterritory, number of investigations ? East
Bohemia,504644
7 subterritory, number of investigations ?
South Moravia,729033
8 subterritory, number of investigations ?
North Moravia,368534
RESULT:
Subterritory Investigations Proportion Percentage
1 Prague 16996 0.0052 0.5214
2 Central Bohemia 524128 0.1608 16.0787
3 South Bohemia 423099 0.1298 12.9794
4 West Bohemia 406461 0.1247 12.4690
5 North Bohemia 286868 0.0880 8.8003
6 East Bohemia 504644 0.1548 15.4810
7 South Moravia 729033 0.2236
22.3646
8 North Moravia 368534 0.1131
11.3055
T o t a l 3259763 1.0000 100.0000
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 4) investigations
according to time series
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)? bovine
tuberculosis
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1959-1969
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of investigations ?
tuberculinizations(PPD on mid-neck)
measure units ? tests
List data:
1 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1959,3512398
2 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1960,3965000
3 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1961,4244789
4 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1962,4553510
5 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1963,4985552
6 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1964,5548905
7 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1965,5884803
8 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1966,5944433
9 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1967,6109595
10 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1968,5825501
11 subperiod, number of investigations ?
1969,5274399
RESULT:
Subperiod Investigations Proportion
Percentage
1 1959
3512398 0.0629 6.2891
2
1960 3965000 0.0710 7.0995
3
1961 4244789 0.0760 7.6005
4
1962 4553510 0.0815 8.1533
5
1963 4985552 0.0893 8.9269
6
1964 5548905 0.0994 9.9356
7
1965 5884803 0.1054 10.5370
8
1966 5944433 0.1064 10.6438
9
1967 6109595 0.1094 10.9395
10
1968 5825501 0.1043 10.4308
11
1969 5274399 0.0944 9.4441
T o t a l 55848884 1.0000 100.0000
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 5) investigations
according to their types
INPUT DATA:
disease(s)? infectious
diseases
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1982
species, category(ies) ?
domestic mammals
measure units ? specimens
List data:
1 test type, number of investigations ?
bacteriological,1116395
2 test type, number of investigations ? virological,519211
3 test type, number of investigations ?
mycological,67916
4 test type, number of investigations ?
serological,952705
RESULT:
Test type Investigations Proportion
Percentage
1 bacteriological 1116395 0.4203 42.0294
2
virological 519211 0.1955
19.5469
3
mycological 67916 0.0256
2.5569
4
serological 952705 0.3587
35.8669
T o t a l 2656227 1.0000
100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 1) investigation
results according to diseases/forms
INPUT DATA:
diseases group ? major mass
diseases in cattle
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1989
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of investigations ?
different
measure units ? tests
List data:
1 disease/form ? tuberculosis number of investigations, positive
results ? 3259763,175
2 disease/form ? brucellosis number of investigations, positive
results ? 121282,0
3 disease/form ? enzootic leukosis number of investigations, positive results
? 1489861,11272
4 disease/form ? IBR/IPV number of investigations, positive
results ? 206742,6183
5 disease/form ? paratuberculosis number of investigations, positive results
? 2544,62
6 disease/form ? fasciolosis number of investigations, positive
results ? 28495,153
7 disease/form ? pulmonar parasitosis number of investigations, positive
results ? 22330,42
RESULT:
Disease Investi-
Positive % of Pos. % of Total
gations
Results Results Pos.Results
1
tuberculosis 3259763
175 0.0054
0.9784
2
brucellosis 121282 0
0.0000 0.0000
3
enzootic leukosis 1489861 11272
0.7566
63.0178
4
IBR/IPV 206742 6183
2.9907
34.5670
5
paratuberculosis 2544
62
2.4371
0.3466
6
fasciolosis 28495 153 0.5369 0.8554
7
pulmonar parasitosis 22330
42 0.1881 0.2348
T o t a l 5131017 17887
0.3486 100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 2) investigation
results according to species/category(ies)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? avian
tuberculosis in mammals
place, period ?
type of investigations ?
simultaneous tuberculinization
measure units ? tests
List data:
1 species/category(ies) ? cattle number of investigations, positive
results ? 333376,2510
2 species/category(ies) ? pigs number of investigations, positive
results ? 163873,659
3 species/category(ies) ? sheep number of investigations, positive
results ? 16635,0
RESULT:
Species/category(ies) Investi-
Positive % of Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results Pos.Results
1 cattle 333376
2510 0.7529 79.2048
2 pigs 163873 659
0.4021 20.7952
3 sheep 16635
0 0.0000 0.0000
T o t a l 513884 3169
0.6167 100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 3) investigation
results according to space/territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? hog cholera
place, period ?
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
type of investigations ? herd
analysis
measure units ? fattening pig
herds
List data:
1 subterritory ? herds with <50 pigs number of investigations, positive
results ? 3635,11
2 subterritory ? herds with 50-99 pigs number of investigations, positive
results ? 2831,12
3 subterritory ? herds with 100-199 pigs number of investigations, positive
results ? 3939,29
4 subterritory ? herds with 200-499 pigs number of investigations, positive
results ? 4317,65
5 subterritory ? herds with 500-999 pigs number of investigations, positive results ?
1701,60
6 subterritory ? herds with >1000 pigs number of investigations, positive
results ? 615,41
RESULT:
Subterritory Investi-
Positive % of Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results Pos.Results
1 herds with <50 pigs 3635 11
0.3026 5.0459
2 herds with 50-99 pigs 2831
12 0.4239 5.5046
3 herds with 100-199 pig 3939 29
0.7362 13.3028
4 herds with 200-499 pig 4317 65
1.5057 29.8165
5 herds with 500-999 pig 1701
60
3.5273 27.5229
6 herds with >1000 pigs 615 41
6.6667 18.8073
T o t a l 17038 218 1.2795
100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 4) investigation
results according to time series
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
brucellosis
place, period ? Czech republic,1959-1964
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of investigations ?
serology (agglutination tube test)
measure units ? tests
List data:
1 subperiod ? 1959 number of investigations, positive
results ? 1568021,6299
2 subperiod ? 1960 number of investigations, positive
results ? 1515000,8506
3 subperiod ? 1961 number of investigations, positive
results ? 1412843,1797
4 subperiod ? 1962 number of investigations, positive
results ? 1333487,519
5 subperiod ? 1963 number of investigations, positive
results ? 1226446,1013
6 subperiod ? 1964 number of investigations, positive
results ? 1256125,1113
RESULT:
Subperiod Investi- Positive
% of Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results Pos.Results
1 1959 1568021 6299
0.4017
32.7272
2 1960 1515000 8506 0.5615
44.1939
3 1961 1412843 1797 0.1272
9.3365
4 1962 1333487 519 0.0389
2.6965
5 1963 1226446 1013 0.0826
5.2632
6 1964 1256125 1113 0.0886
5.7827
T o t a l 8311922 19247
0.2316 100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables of: 5) investigation
results according to tests used
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? toxoplasmosis
place, period ? abattoir
Strakonice,1982-1989
species, category(ies) ?
sheep,all
List data:
1 test type ? Sabin-Feldman reaction number of investigations, positive
results ? 886,484
2 test type ? complement fixation number of investigations, positive
results ? 484,194
3 test type ? microprecipitation number of investigations, positive
results ? 686,25
4 test type ? isolation test number of investigations, positive
results ? 786,38
RESULT:
Test type Investi- Positive
% of Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results Pos.Results
1 Sabin-Feldman reaction 886
484
54.6275 65.3171
2 complement fixation 484 194
40.0826 26.1808
3 microprecipitation 686
25 3.6443 3.3738
4 isolation test 786 38 4.8346 5.1282
T o t a l 2842 741
26.0732 100.0000
7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A
GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
This subprogramme calculates summary tables on: 1) field
investigations results of a given population (herd, flock)
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Ranch T.,May
2004
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
type of investigations ?
mixed-field/laboratory
criterium for positivity ?
national standard
total number of investigated
animals/specimens ? 690
List data:
1 disease, positive results ? bovine
tubeculosis,37
2 disease, positive results ? bovine
brucellosis,13
3 disease, positive results ? leukosis,8
4 disease, positive results ? IBR/IPV,123
5 disease, positive results ? mastitis,112
6 disease, positive results ? fasciolosis,145
7 disease, positive results ? ticks,67
RESULT:
Disease(s) Number of % of
% of Total
Positive Positive Positive
Results Results Results
1 bovine tubeculosis 37 5.3623 7.3267
2 bovine brucellosis 13 1.8841 2.5743
3 leukosis 8
1.1594 1.5842
4 IBR/IPV 123
17.8261 24.3564
5 mastitis 112 16.2319 22.1782
6 fasciolosis 145
21.0145 28.7129
7 ticks 67 9.7101 13.2673
T o t a l 505 100.0000
7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A
GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
This subprogramme calculates summary tables on: 2) laboratory
investigations results of a given set of specimens
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Region O.,
July 2004
specimen ? aborted embryos of
sheep
type of investigations ?
microbiological
criterium for positivity ?
isolation of etiol.agents
total number of investigated
animals/specimens ? 456
List data:
1 disease, positive results ?
Bruc.melitensis,34
2 disease, positive results ? toxoplasmosis,123
3
disease, positive results ? listeriosis,12
4 disease, positive results ? vibriosis,45
RESULT:
Disease(s) Number of % of
% of Total
Positive Positive Positive
Results Results Results
1 Bruc.melitensis 34 7.4561 15.8879
2 toxoplasmosis 123 26.9737 57.4766
3 listeriosis 12 2.6316 5.6075
4 vibriosis 45 9.8684 21.0280
T o t a l 214 100.0000
7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A
GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
This subprogramme calculates summary tables on: 3) slaughterhouse
investigations results of a given animal group
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1982
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
type of investigations ?
postmortem/pat/anat.
criterium for positivity ?
macroscopic findings (abattoirs)
total number of investigated
animals/specimens ? 5179130
List data:
1 disease, positive results ? avian tbc,12
2 disease, positive results ? salmonelloses,159
3 disease, positive results ? Aujeszky dis.,137
4 disease, positive results ? leucosis,8
5 disease, positive results ? respiratory
inf.,1232
6 disease, positive results ? diarrhea,453
7 disease, positive results ? other
inf.dis.,327
8 disease, positive results ? cysticercosis,0
9 disease, positive results ? other
parasitosis,141
RESULT:
Disease(s) Number of % of
% of Total
Positive Positive Positive
Results Results
Results
1 avian tbc 12 0.0002 0.4860
2
salmonelloses 159 0.0031
6.4399
3 Aujeszky dis. 137 0.0026
5.5488
4 leucosis 8 0.0002 0.3240
5 respiratory inf. 1232 0.0238
49.8987
6 diarrhea 453 0.0087
18.3475
7 other inf.dis. 327
0.0063 13.2442
8 cysticercosis 0
0.0000 0.0000
9 other
parasitosis 141 0.0027
5.7108
T o t a l 2469 100.0000
7.11-TESTING PARASITIC
DISEASES EXTENSITY AND INTENSITY
This subprogramme calculates the extensity (proportion of animals with
specific parasites) and intensity
(average number of parasites in affected animals).
INPUT DATA:
parasitosis ? fasciolosis
species, category(ies) ?
sheep,elder than 1 year
place, time ?
specimen, test type ?
feces,coprology
List data: subpopulation name, number of
tested, positive animals, average of parasites :
1 ? low area,51,18,25.2
2 ? submount.,81,7,19.8
3 ? mountains,30,15,7.8
RESULT:
Subpopu- Number of
Number of EXTEN- INTENSITY
Total Proportion
lation Tested Animals
SITY Average
Number of
of Total
Animals
with
Propor-
of Found
Number of
Parasites tion
Parasites Parasites Parasites
low area 51
18
0.3529
25.2 454
0.6396
submount. 81
7 0.0864 19.8
139 0.1954
mountains 30 15
0.5000 7.8
117 0.1650
T O T A L 162
40 0.2469
17.7 709 1.0000
7.12-TESTING INFECTION
INTENSITY GRADES IN ANIMALS
This subprogramme calculates infection intensity distribution in terms of
etiological agents (quantity, quality), antibodies levels, etc.
INPUT DATA:
disease ? Fasciola hepatica
(acc.M.de Lourdes/WHO/TBD/R38)
species, category(ies) ? Homo
sapiens,1986
place, time ? Portugal
communities,1986
specimen, test type ?
stool,coprology
infection intensity grade
type ? number of eggs/g feces
List grade values, number of animals:
1 ? 0-100 eggs/g,93
2 ? 101-200 eggs/g,32
3 ?
201-300 eggs/g,35
4 ? 301-400 eggs/g,18
5 ? 401-500 eggs/g,10
6 ? 501-800 eggs/g,13
7 ? 801-1000 eggs/g,5
8 ? > 1000 eggs/g,1
RESULT:
Grade Affected Proportion Percentage
Animals of Total of Total
1 0-100 eggs/g 93 0.4493 44.9275
2 101-200 eggs 32 0.1546 15.4589
3 201-300 eggs 35 0.1691
16.9082
4 301-400 eggs 18 0.0870
8.6957
5 401-500 eggs 10 0.0483
4.8309
6 501-800 eggs 13 0.0628
6.2802
7 801-1000 egg
5 0.0242 2.4155
8 > 1000 eggs/ 1 0.0048
0.4831
T o t a l 207
1.0000
100.0000
7.13-COMPARISON OF TWO TESTS
ACCORDING THEIR SPECIFICITY AND SENSITIVITY
(applicable for any diagnostic test of any investigated phenomena, e.g.
healthy or diseased animals, specimens, focal units, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
phenomenon to be detected ?
disease Y.
population (sample) ? pigs of
all categories
reference test (gold
standard) ? CTF
compared test ? ELISA
number of positive results in
both tests ? 4750
number of positive results in
compared test and negative in reference
test ? 4900
number of negative results in
compared test and positive in reference
test ? 1900
number of negative results in
both tests ? 88450
RESULT:
Sensitivity ratio of compared
test to reference test = 0.7143 =
71.4286 %
Specificity ratio of compared
test to reference test = 0.9475 =
94.7509 %
7.14-RELATIONSHIP OF
POSITIVELY AND NEGATIVELY TESTED ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
diagnostic method ?
serological test - B.melitensis
species ? sheep category(ies) ? all
place ? Province T. time ? May 2004
number of tested diseased
animals with positive (true) results ?
3456
number of tested healthy
animals with positive (false) results
? 2134
number of tested diseased
animals with negative (false) results ?
45
number of tested healthy
animals with negative (true) results
? 5678
RESULT:
Tested animals - total, diseased, healthy, positively, negatively: 11313, 3501,
7812, 5590, 5723
Rate of true positive
animals = 0.6182
Rate of false positive
animals = 0.3818
Rate of false negative
animals = 0.0079
Rate of true negative
animals =
0.9921
Rate of positively tested
diseased animals =
0.9871
Rate of positively tested
healthy animals =
0.2732
Rate of negatively tested
diseased animals =
0.0129
Rate of negatively tested
healthy animals =
0.7268
Rate of positively tested
animals = 0.4941
Rate of negatively tested
animals =
0.5059
Rate of tested healthy
animals =
0.6905
Rate of tested diseased
animals = 0.3095
7.15-PREDICTIVE VALUE
ACCORDING TO BAYES' THEOREM
INPUT DATA (numeric data as proportions):
diagnostic method and its aim
? serology (agglut.) to detect B.brucellosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, time ? Province U.,2001
prevalence rate ? 0.03
diagnostic method
specificity ? 0.9
diagnostic method
sensitivity ? 0.85
RESULT:
Predictive value of positive
results =
0.2082
Predictive value of negative
results = 0.9949
8-SELECTED SAMPLING METHODS FOR POPULATION
HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS
=====================================================================
1-Random numbers for selection of
representative animals/herds
2-Sample size for detecting presence of
a disease in a population
3-Sample size for estimating prevalence
in large population
4-Sample size for estimating prevalence
using confidence interval
5-Sample size for estimating prevalence
using absolute difference
6-Sample size for estimating prevalence
in finite population
7-Sample size for detecting difference
between two prevalences
8-Sample size for estimating mean of
population health phenomena - I.
9-Sample size for estimating mean of
population health phenomena - II.
10-Sample size for detecting difference
between two means
11-Stratified sampling for population
health investigations
12-Estimating prevalence from simple and
cluster random samples
13-Probability of failure to detect
diseased animals
8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR
SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS
This subprogramme calculates random numbers for selection of: 1) representative
animals for health/disease investigations
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
total number of sampling
units to be selected using random
numbers ? 56
range of random numbers
(1-?) ? 1200
RESULT:
Random numbers of sampling units:
1163 243
624 159 1050
30 571 1142
383 924 828
1055 361 747
992
804 560
1154 266 1150
662 1165 156
541 1195 232
823 802 447 92
978 509
554 963 683 553 117
1139 762 1080
167 944 1176
541 212
294 1078
637 1000 1031
1091 878 924
277 321 348
8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR
SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS
This subprogramme calculates random numbers for selection of: 2) representative
groups of animals and other units for cluster sampling (samples of herds = cluster samples of
animals, samples of areas = cluster samples of herds/farms, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
groups of units for cluster
sampling ? cattle herds
sampling element measure
units ? herds
number of sampling units to
be selected using random numbers ? 35
range of random numbers
(1-?) ? 1200
RESULT:
Random numbers of sampling units:
904 974
68 607 480 60 131
305 536 233
266 38 804
372 507 245
959 362
303 449 52 1175 377
49 110 579
671 1174 820
712 60 4
152 897
230
8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR
SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS
This subprogramme calculates random numbers for selection of: 3) representative
units (areas, villages, ranches, farms or herds/flocks, animals) for
multistage sampling
INPUT DATA:
how many stages for multistage sampling ? 3
1 . stage sampling units ? areas how many random numbers, range (1-?) ? 10,100
2 . stage sampling units ? farms how many random numbers, range
(1-?) ? 10,1000
3 . stage sampling units ? animals how many random numbers, range
(1-?) ? 30,10000
RESULTS:
1 . S T A G E: areas
Numbers of
units to be selected: 10
Range of
random numbers: (1 - 100 )
Random numbers: 5 36 78
66 72 42 71 48
74 42
2 . S T A G E: farms
Numbers of
units to be selected: 10
Range of
random numbers: (1 - 1000 )
Random numbers: 85 93 14
418 786 231
152 788 133
988
3 . S T A G E: animals
Numbers of
units to be selected: 30
Range of
random numbers: (1 - 10000 )
Random numbers: 6466 8638
8208 4927 1893
1199 741 9267
7149 1185 8847
8863 1431
8948 3596
3143 9734 6206
4816 4874 1587
6609 8263 7930
9291 3804
356 2813
4883 3112
8.2-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
THE PRESENCE OF A DISEASE IN A POPULATION
(Ref.: Cannon,Roe)
INPUT DATA:
Do you know total number of animals of the population, yes(y) or no(n) ? n
what is your best estimate of
the prevalence rate of diseased animals
in the given population ? 0.05
how certain must you be that
at least one case of the given disease
is detected - confidence level (0.9, 0.95, 0.99,etc.) ? 0.95
RESULT:
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for detecting the presence of a given disease = 58
8.2-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
THE PRESENCE OF A DISEASE IN A POPULATION
(Ref.: Cannon,Roe)
INPUT DATA:
Do you know total number of animals of the population, yes(y)
or no(n) ? y
total number of animals of
the population ? 1000
what is your best estimate of
the prevalence rate of diseased animals
in the given population ? 0.01
how certain must you be that
at least one case of the given disease
is detected - confidence level (0.9, 0.95, 0.99,etc.) ? 0.95
RESULT:
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for detecting the presence of a given disease = 259
8.3-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN LARGE POPULATIONS
(Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution - using standard error of estimated prevalence
rate)
INPUT DATA:
have you(y) or not(n) any a
priori idea about the prevalence rate ? y
what is your best estimate of
the prevalence rate ?
0.04
upper limit of standard error
of estimated prevalence rate (maximum
difference between the true prevalence rate
and your sample prevalence rate that you can tolerate) ? 0.025
RESULT:
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly) required for estimating disease prevalence
rate = 61
8.3-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN LARGE POPULATIONS
(Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution - using standard error of estimated prevalence
rate)
INPUT DATA:
have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
upper limit of standard error of
estimated prevalence rate (maximum difference between the true prevalence rate
and your sample prevalence rate that you can tolerate) ? 0.01
RESULT:
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for estimating disease prevalence rate = 2500
8.4-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution in an infinit population)
INPUT DATA:
have you(y) or not(n) any a
priori idea about the prevalence rate ?
y
enter your best estimate of the
prevalence rate (supposed proportion of
diseased animals in the given population) !
0.04
value of confidence interval
for prevalence rate (proportion) ?
0.05
critical value of the
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% of
error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.96
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = 236
8.4-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution in an infinit population)
INPUT DATA:
have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
value of confidence interval
for prevalence rate (proportion) ?
0.05
critical value of the confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.96
RESULT:
Minimal sample size required for estimating disease prevalence rate = 1537
8.5-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE
(Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
between estimated and true prevalence rate (binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA:
have you(y) or not(n) a priori
idea about the prevalence rate ? y
enter your best estimate of the
prevalence rate (supposed proportion of
diseased animals in the given population) !
0.4
tolerated difference between
true and sample prevalence rates (level
of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.05
how certain must you be that
the difference between the true and
sample prevalence rate is <0.0500
i.e what is the critical value of the confidence coefficient
(1.65 for 10% error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)
? 1.96
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = 369
8.5-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE
(Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
between estimated and true prevalence rate (binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA:
have you(y) or not(n) a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
tolerated difference between
true and sample prevalence rates (level
of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.02
how certain must you be that
the difference between the true and sample prevalence rate is <0.0200 i.e what is the critical value of the
confidence coefficient
(1.65 for 10% error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)
? 1.65
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = 1702
8.6-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN FINITE POPULATION (Ref.:
Jenicek,Cleroux; Cannon,Roe)
(binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA:
total number of animals of a given population ? 900
have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate ? y
estimated prevalence rate
? 0.4
critical value of the confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%;
etc.) ? 1.96
tolerated difference between estimated and true prevalence rates (level of precision required - tolerated
error) ? 0.05
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = 263
8.6-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN FINITE POPULATION (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux; Cannon,Roe)
(binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA:
total number of animals of a given population ? 10000
have you(y) or not(n) any a
priori idea about the prevalence rate ?
n
critical value of the confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%;
etc.) ? 1.96
tolerated difference between estimated and true prevalence rates (level
of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.05
RESULT:
Minimal sample size required for estimating disease prevalence rate = 371
8.7-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO PREVALENCE RATES
(Ref.: Putt et al.)
(in large populations) ¨
INPUT DATA:
estimated disease prevalence
rate of the first population ? 0.4
estimated disease prevalence
rate of the second population ? 0.15
critical value corresponding to
statistical significance level required
('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.65
critical value corresponding to
the chance we are willing to accept of
failing to detect a difference of this type
('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;
1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%;
etc.) ? 1.28
RESULT:
For detecting the difference
between two disease prevalence rates
minimal sample size of each population =
53 animals i.e. total sample = 106
animals
8.8-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - I.
(Ref.:
Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size in large (infinite) population
using: 1) standard deviation of the distribution in population, sampling
error and critical value of confidence
coefficient
INPUT DATA:
estimated standard (average)
deviation of the population mean ?
0.1931
required precision - tolerated
sampling error - deviation of the sample mean in a b s o l u t e term
? 0.02
reliability - critical value of
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 90%
confidence level; 1.96 for 95%; 2.58 for 99%; etc.) ? 1.96
RESULT:
Minimal sample size required for estimating population mean = 358
8.8-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - I.
(Ref.:
Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size in large (infinite) population
using: 2) coefficient of variation
(dispersion), tolerated deviation of sample mean and critical value of
confidence coefficient.
INPUT DATA:
coefficient of variation ? 0.1
allowable deviation of sample
mean (in terms of p r o p o r t i o n of
average) ? 0.05
reliability - critical value of
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 90%
confidence level; 1.96 for 95%; 2.58 for 99%; etc.) ? 3
RESULT:
Minimal sample size required
for estimating population mean = 36
8.9-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - II.
(Ref.: Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size using absolute difference
between sample and true mean, confidence coefficient and sample standard
deviation
1) when population size is known
INPUT DATA:
total number of animals of the
given population ? 2000
maximal tolerated absolute
difference between the sample mean and
the true mean ? 5
maximum tolerated sample standard deviation ? 24.5
critical value of confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)
? 3
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating the population
mean = 195
8.9-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - II.
(Ref.:
Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size using absolute difference
between sample and true mean, confidence coefficient and sample standard
deviation
2) when population size is unknown
INPUT DATA:
maximal tolerated absolute
difference between the sample mean and the true mean ? 5
maximum tolerated sample standard deviation ? 24.5
critical value of confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 3
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating the population
mean = 216
8.10-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO MEANS
(Ref.: Kubankova, Hendl)
This subprogramme calculates sample size for detecting difference
between two means (if the size and variance of both populations are the same):
1) between two independent samples (populations)
INPUT DATA:
means difference - precision in
relative term (>0 - 1 !) ? 0.5
critical value corresponding to
statistical significance level
required: ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28
for 10% of error probability; 1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.) or
('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65
for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.96
critical value corresponding to
the chance we are willing to accept of
failing to detect a difference of this type
('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;
1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%;
etc.) or ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of
error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for
1%; etc.) ?
1.96
population variance (square of
standard deviation) ? 2
RESULT:
For detecting the difference
between two populations means minimal
sample size of each population =
246 animals i.e. total sample size = 492
animals
8.10-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO MEANS
(Ref.: Kubankova, Hendl)
This subprogramme calculates sample size for detecting difference
between two means (if the size and variance of both populations are the same):
2) between two dependent samples (populations)
INPUT DATA:
means difference - precision in
relative term (>0 - 1 !) ? 0.5
critical value corresponding to
statistical significance level
required: ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28
for 10% of error probability; 1.64 for
5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.) or
('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65
for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for
5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.96
critical value corresponding to
the chance we are willing to accept of
failing to detect a difference of this type
('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;
1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%;
etc.) or ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of
error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58
for 1%; etc.)
? 1.96
population variance (square of
standard deviation) ? 2
RESULT:
For detecting the difference between two populations means minimal sample size of each population = 123
animals i.e. total sample size =
246 animals
8.11-STRATIFIED SAMPLING FOR
POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS
INPUT DATA:
investigation ? serological
testing - bovine brucellosis
place, time ? Province
B.,1996
Do you know sample size in absolute
n u m b e r of representative animals
(a) or sample size p e r c e n t a g
e of a given population (p) ? a
sample size - number of
animals (to be selected randomly)
representing a given population ?
3200
List data:
1 subpopulation, number of animals ? cows,45000
2 subpopulation, number of animals ?
heifers,20000
3 subpopulation, number of animals ? bulls/steers,15000
4 subpopulation, number of animals ?
calves,20000
RESULT:
Subpopulation Number
of animals Proportion
Percentage
(stratum) -----------------------------
total sampled
1 cows
45000 1440 0.4500 45.0000
2 heifers 20000
640
0.2000 20.0000
3 bulls/steers 15000 480
0.1500 15.0000
4 calves 20000 640
0.2000 20.0000
T o t a l 100000 3200
1.0000 100.0000
8.11-STRATIFIED SAMPLING FOR
POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS
INPUT DATA:
investigation ? serological
test for Aujeszky disease in pigs
place, time ? Region T.,May
2003
Do you know sample size in absolute
n u m b e r of representative animals
(a) or sample size p e r c e n t a g
e of a given population (p) ? p
percentage of representative
animals to be investigated ? 5
List data:
1 subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm B,120
2 subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm J.,456
3 subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm
C.,987
4 subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm
D.,9876
5 subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm
E.,2043
RESULT:
Subpopulation Number
of animals Proportion
Percentage
(stratum) ----------------------------
total sampled
1 Farm B 120
6
0.0089
0.8901
2 Farm J. 456 23
0.0338
3.3823
3 Farm C. 987 49 0.0732
7.3209
4 Farm D. 9876 494 0.7325
73.2532
5 Farm E. 2043 102 0.1515 15.1535
T o t a l 13482 674
1.0000
100.0000
8.12-ESTIMATING DISEASE
PREVALENCE FROM SIMPLE AND CLUSTER RANDOM SAMPLES (Ref.:
Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates the estimation from: 1) simple random sample
INPUT DATA:
disease/form ? bluetongue
species, category(ies) ?
sheep,all
type of prevalence ? point prevalence
place, time ? Region V.,1
July 1993
random sample size -
number of selected animals ? 850
sampling fraction in form of
a proportion of selected animals from the total population ?
0.01
number of diseased animals in
the sample ? 62
RESULT:
Prevalence of diseased
animals in the sample = 0.0729
= 7.29 %
Standard error of the sample
prevalence = 0.0089
= 0.89 %
Estimated true prevalence in
total population at:
90% confidence interval lies
between 5.84 % and
8.75 %
95% confidence interval lies
between 5.55 % and
9.03 %
99% confidence interval lies
between 5.00 % and
9.58 %
( The 95 % confidence
limit = 7.2941
+- 1.7394 % )
8.12-ESTIMATING DISEASE
PREVALENCE FROM SIMPLE AND CLUSTER RANDOM SAMPLES (Ref.:
Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates the estimation from: 2) cluster
random sample
INPUT DATA:
disease ? mastitis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows
place, time ? Region Y.,May
2003
definition of clusters
(groups, herds, flocks, farms, etc.) ? herds
total number of clusters ? 943
number of clusters randomly selected ? 11
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 1 ? 183,22
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 2 ? 92,12
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 3 ? 416,37
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 4 ? 203,23
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 5 ? 107,17
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 6 ? 388,32
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 7 ? 79,36
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 8 ? 243,29
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 9 ? 314,24
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 10 ? 83,17
number of animals: total,
diseased in cluster 11 ? 113,59
RESULT:
Total number of animals
in selected clusters = 2221
Number of diseased
animals in selected clusters = 308
Prevalence of diseased
animals in the sample = 0.1387 =
13.87 %
Standard error of sample
prevalence = 0.0293 =
2.93 %
Estimated true prevalence in
total population at:
90 % confidence interval lies
between 9.07 % and
18.67 %
95 % confidence interval lies
between 8.13 % and
19.60 %
99 % confidence interval lies
between 6.32 % and
21.42 %
( The 95 % confidence
limit =
13.8676 +- 5.7357 % )
8.13-PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO
DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS
(Ref.: Cannon, Roe)
This subprogramme calculates probability of failure to detect diseased
animals from an 'i n f i n i t e' population with the specific proportion of
positives. 1) calculation
INPUT DATA:
type of test ? serological ivestigations of cattle on brucellosis
test sensitivity grade (in form of a proportion, i.e. >0<=1) ? 0.8
prevalence rate of positives (in form of a proportion, i.e.
>0<1) ? 0.05
number of samples ? 100
RESULT:
Probability of failure to
detect diseased animals
a) without
considering the test sensitivity
= 0.00592
b) after the
correction by test sensitivity = 0.00740
8.13-PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO
DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS
(Ref.: Cannon, Roe)
This subprogramme calculates probability of failure to detect diseased
animals from an 'i n f i n i t e' population with the specific proportion of
positives.
2) prefixed data in form of a
table
TABLE - PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS
(Theoretical data for test sensitivity of ideal value = 1.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Preva- number of a
n i m a l s in sample
t e s t e d
lence % 5 10 25 50 75 100 200 250 500
1000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 0.951
0.904 0.778 0.605
0.471 0.366 0.134
0.081 0.007 0.000
2 0.904
0.817 0.603 0.364
0.220 0.133 0.018
0.006 0.000
3 0.859
0.737 0.467 0.218
0.102 0.048 0.002
0.000
4 0.815
0.665 0.360 0.130
0.047 0.017 0.000
5 0.774
0.599 0.277 0.077
0.021 0.006 0.000
6 0.734
0.539 0.213 0.045
0.010 0.002 0.000
7 0.696
0.484 0.163 0.027
0.004 0.001 0.000
8 0.659
0.434 0.124 0.015
0.002 0.000
9 0.624
0.389 0.095 0.009
0.001 0.000
10 0.590
0.349 0.072 0.005
0.000
15 0.444
0.197 0.017 0.000
20 0.328
0.107 0.004 0.000
25 0.237
0.056 0.001 0.000
30 0.168
0.028 0.000
40 0.078
0.006 0.000
50 0.031
0.001 0.0
9-SELECTED ASPECTS OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMMES
===============================================================
1-Selection of priority diseases for
animal health programmes
2-Simple model of morbidity/nidality
changes' prognosis
3-Planning/prognosis of morbidity
reduction (in linear form)
4-Planning/prognosis of morbidity
reduction (in curve form)
5-Planning/prognosis of animal
population specific health recovery
6-Animal population health/disease
mass actions (incl.vaccinations)
7-'Critical path' method in animal
population health planning
8-Distribution of animal population
health programme inputs
9-Animal population health
programme/measures' coverage
10-Planning/prognosis of reducing
nidality, mortality and losses
11-Planning/prognosis of expanding
specific disease free territory
9.1-SELECTION OF PRIORITY
DISEASES FOR ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMMES
Assessment of eligibility according to disease importance, solution
feasibility and inputs availability in a given territory and period after analyzing
all substantial factors influencing
strategy/measures practicability and probability of success of time-bounded
programmes.
INPUT DATA:
place, time ?
Number of diseases in consideration ? 4
The scales consist of g r a d e
s from >0 (major than 0) to 10 !
disease No. 1 : name (up to 15
characters): ? bov.tuberculosis
grades of biological,
economic, public health, social importance ? 7,10,10,8
grades of
technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability ? 9,9
disease No. 2 : name (up to 15
characters): ? bov.brucellosis
grades of biological,
economic, public health, social importance ? 5,7,9,7
grades of
technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability ? 7,8
disease No. 3 : name (up to 15
characters): ? bov.leukosis
grades of biological, economic,
public health, social importance ? 2,5,0,2
grades of
technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability ? 5,3
disease No. 4 : name (up to 15
characters): ? bov.mastitis
grades of biological, economic, public
health, social importance ? 4,7,7,2
grades of
technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability ? 4,5
Values of importance
multiplier coefficients are fixed as follows:
biological =
2
economic =
4
public health = 6
social = 2
Do you accept these values
(y) or you will use other ones (o)?
o
Define other values (1 up to
10 !) of importance multiplier coefficients:
biological ? 2
economic ? 5
public health ? 6
social ? 2
RESULT:
Disease(s) I m p o r t a n c e Grades
Grades of
-------------------------------- ------------------
biol.
eco. public social
feasi- input T O T A L
health bility avai-
points
------------------------------------------------- labi-
Multiplier * 2 * 5 *
6 *
2 lity
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bov.tuberculosi + 7 + 10 +
10 + 8 *
9 * 9
11340
bov.brucellosis + 5
+ 7 + 9
+ 7 * 7
* 8 6328
bov.leukosis + 2 +
5 + 0
+ 2 * 5 *
3 495
bov.mastitis + 4
+ 7 +
7 + 2
* 4 * 5 1780
Disease(s) Proportion Percentage
of the total
19943 allocated points
bov.tuberculosi 0.5686 56.8621
bov.brucellosis 0.3173 31.7304
bov.leukosis 0.0248
2.4821
bov.mastitis 0.0893
8.9254
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
9.2-SIMPLE MODEL OF
MORBIDITY/NIDALITY CHANGES' PROGNOSIS
This programme calculates morbidity/nidality changes' prognosis based
on: 1) supposed absolute numbers of
diseased animals or outbreaks (initial, new,
extinct)
INPUT DATA:
Do you want to process data on diseased animals (d) or outbreaks (o) ? d
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
place ?
period ? 1959-1968
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
number of diseased animals at
the beginning ? 497006
List data:
1
subperiod ? 1959
supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 357903,226633
2
subperiod ? 1960
supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 191842,189280
3
subperiod ? 1961 supposed
new, extinct diseased animals ? 117275,182454
4
subperiod ? 1962
supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 71476,180566
5
subperiod ? 1963
supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 57073,163885
6
subperiod ? 1964 supposed
new, extinct diseased animals ? 52832,153305
7
subperiod ? 1965
supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 43215,134232
8
subperiod ? 1966
supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 21285,99543
9
subperiod ? 1967 supposed
new, extinct diseased animals ? 14603,75135
10 subperiod ? 1968 supposed new, extinct diseased animals
? 5243,24720
RESULT:
Supposed future
numbers of diseased animals
------------------------------------------------------------------
Subperiod New Extinct FINAL
1 1959 357903 226633 628276
2 1960 191842 189280 630838
3 1961 117275 182454
565659
4 1962
71476 180566 456569
5 1963
57073 163885 349757
6 1964
52832 153305 249284
7 1965
43215 134232 158267
8 1966 21285
99543 80009
9 1967 14603
75135 19477
10 1968 5243
24720 0
9.2-SIMPLE MODEL OF
MORBIDITY/NIDALITY CHANGES' PROGNOSIS
This programme calculates morbidity/nidality changes' prognosis based
on: 2) supposed relative numbers of morbidity/nidality rates - initial
prevalence,
incidence, extinction rates
INPUT DATA:
Do you want to process data on diseased animals (d) or outbreaks (o) ? d
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
place ?
period ? 1960-1968
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
initial point prevalence
rate ? 0.21
List data:
1
subperiod ? 1960 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.065,0.065
2
subperiod ? 1961 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.04,0.06
3
subperiod ? 1962 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.025,0.06
4
subperiod ? 1963 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.02,0.055
5
subperiod ? 1964 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.018,0.05
6
subperiod ? 1965 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.015,0.045
7
subperiod ? 1966 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.012,0.033
8
subperiod ? 1967 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.005,0.02
9
subperiod ? 1968 supposed
incidence, extinction rates ? 0.002,0.01
RESULT:
Supposed future
specific disease morbidity
rates
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subperiod Incidence Extinction Final
Rate
Rate Prevalence
Rate
1 1960 0.0650
0.0650 0.2100
2 1961 0.0400 0.0600 0.1900
3 1962 0.0250 0.0600 0.1550
4 1963 0.0200 0.0550 0.1200
5 1964 0.0180 0.0500 0.0880
6 1965 0.0150 0.0450 0.0580
7 1966 0.0120 0.0330 0.0370
8 1967 0.0050 0.0200 0.0220
9 1968 0.0020 0.0100 0.0140
9.3-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
MORBIDITY REDUCTION (IN LINEAR FORM)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
place, period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
time measure unit ? year
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the programme ? 628276
r e d u c e d number of diseased animals planned for the end of the programme ? 0
duration of the programme in
time measure units ? 9
RESULT:
Difference between initial
and final number of diseased
animals = 628276
Average number of diseased to
be reduced during one year = 69808
i.e. average percentage of
initial number = 11.1111 %
average percentage
of the difference between initial and
final numbers = 11.1111 %
Do you want to calculate partial data, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
Do you want the number of
diseased animals after a given period (p) or the time with a given number of
diseased animals (a) ? p
number of time measure units
of a given partial period ? 6
Number of diseased animals
reduced during the first 6.00 time units = 418851
i.e. there should be still a rest of circa 209425 diseased animals.
RESULT:
End of Supposed Percentage
year Number of of Initial
Diseased Total
Animals Number
1 558467 88.8889
2 488659 77.7778
3 418850 66.6667
4 349042 55.5556
5 279233 44.4444
6 209425 33.3333
7 139616 22.2222
8 69808 11.1111
9 0 0.0000
9.4-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
MORBIDITY REDUCTION (IN CURVE FORM)
(decrease of diseased animals number in regular curve form)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place ?
period ? 1960-1968
time measure unit ? year
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the programme ?
628276
r e d u c e d number of diseased animals planned for the end of the programme ? 0
planned p e r i o d
for objective achievement in time
measure units ? 9
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number of % of Initial
End of year Diseased
Animals Value
1 609331 96.9846
2 554781 88.3022
3 471207 75.0000
4 368687 58.6825
5 259588 41.3176
6 157069 25.0001
7 73494 11.6978
8 18945 3.0154
9 0 0.0000
9.5-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION SPECIFIC HEALTH RECOVERY
(number increase of healthy animals)
This programme calculates the
plans for health recovery – objectives in terms of numbers of specific disease(s)
free animals 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
specific health ? bovine
tuberculosis free
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
time measure unit ? year
number of healthy
animals at the beginning of the
programme ? 260063
i n c r e a s e d number of healthy animals planned for the end of the programme ? 3030000
planned p e r i o d
for objective achievement in
time measure units ? 9
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number of Percentage
End of year Healthy Animals of Final Number
1 567833
18.7404
2 875604 28.8978
3 1183375 39.0553
4 1491146 49.2127
5 1798916 59.3702
6 2106687 69.5276
7 2414458 79.6851
8 2722229 89.8425
9 3030000 100.0000
9.5-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION SPECIFIC HEALTH RECOVERY
(number increase of healthy animals)
This programme calculates the
plans for health recovery - objectives
in terms of numbers of specific disease(s) free animals 2) in
curve form
INPUT DATA:
specific health ? bovine
tuberculosis free
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
time measure unit ? semester
number of healthy
animals at the beginning of the
programme ? 260063
i n c r e a s e d number of healthy animals planned for the end of the programme ? 3030000
planned p e r i o d
for objective achievement in time measure units ? 18
Healthy animals' initial number:
260063 Final number: 3030000
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number of Percentage
End of semester Healthy Animals of Final Number
1 281104 9.2774
2 343587 11.3395
3 445614 14.7067
4 584084 19.2767
5 754791 24.9106
6 952547 31.4372
7 1171345 38.6582
8 1404534
46.3543
9 1645032 54.2915
10 1885529
62.2287
11 2118718 69.9247
12 2337516 77.1457
13 2535272 83.6723
14 2705979 89.3062
15 2844449 93.8762
16 2946476 97.2434
17 3008959 99.3056
18 3030000 100.0000
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates:
summary tables of: 1) actions according to diseases
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), period ?
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
type of animal health actions
? vaccinations
measure units ? vaccinations
List data:
1 disease, number of actions ? foot-and-mouth
d.,730393
2 disease, number of actions ? hog
cholera,209181
3 disease, number of actions ? hog
chol+erysip.,5051495
4 disease, number of actions ?
erysipelas-ads-vac.,877908
5 disease, number of actions ?
erysipelas-avir.v.,1501241
6 disease, number of actions ?
gastroenteritis,64896
7 disease, number of actions ? Aujeszky
disease,357818
8 disease, number of actions ?
coli-enterits,606231
RESULT:
Disease Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions
of total number of actions
1 foot-and-mouth d. 730393 0.0777 7.7708
2 hog cholera 209181 0.0223 2.2255
3 hog chol+erysip. 5051495 0.5374 53.7441
4 erysipelas-ads-vac. 877908 0.0934 9.3403
5 erysipelas-avir.v. 1501241 0.1597
15.9721
6 gastroenteritis 64896 0.0069 0.6904
7 Aujeszky disease 357818 0.0381 3.8069
8
coli-enterits 606231
0.0645 6.4498
T o t a l 9399163 1.0000 100.0000
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates:
summary tables of: 2) actions according to species
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
place (territory), period ?
type of animal health actions
? prophylactic vaccinations
measure units ? vaccinations
List data:
1 species, number of actions ? cattle,3850553
2 species, number of actions ? pigs,730393
3 species, number of actions ? sheep,69739
RESULT:
Species Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
1 cattle 3850553
0.8280 82.7954
2 pigs 730393 0.1571 15.7051
3
sheep 69739 0.0150
1.4995
T o t a l 4650685 1.0000
100.0000
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates: summary tables of: 3) actions
according to space/territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? fasciolosis
place (territory), period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of animal health actions
? deworming
measure units ? deworming
applications
List data:
1 subterritory, number of actions ?
2 subterritory, number of actions ?
3 subterritory, number of actions ?
4 subterritory, number of actions ?
5 subterritory, number of actions ?
6 subterritory, number of actions ?
7 subterritory, number of actions ?
RESULT:
Subterritory Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
1 Central
2 South
3 West
4 North
5 East
6 South
7 North
T o t a l 42033 1.0000
100.0000
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates:
summary tables of: 4) actions according to time series
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth
disease
place (territory), period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
type of animal health actions
? prophylactic vaccinations
measure units ? vaccinations
List data:
1 subperiod, number of actions ? 1971,1499179
2 subperiod, number of actions ? 1972,1902024
3 subperiod, number of actions ? 1973,4678072
4 subperiod, number of actions ? 1974,3318301
5 subperiod, number of actions ? 1975,3054610
RESULT:
Subperiod Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
1 1971 1499179 0.1037 10.3734
2 1972 1902024 0.1316 13.1608
3 1973 4678072 0.3237 32.3693
4 1974 3318301 0.2296 22.9605
5 1975 3054610 0.2114 21.1360
T o t a l 14452186 1.0000 100.0000
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates:
summary tables of: 5) actions according to their types
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? pulmonary
helminthiasis
place (territory), period ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
measure units ? applications
List data:
1 action type, number of actions ?
deworming,21071
2 action type, number of actions ?
vaccinations,3850
RESULT:
Action type Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
1 deworming 21071 0.8455 84.5512
2 vaccinations 3850 0.1545 15.4488
T o t a l 24921 1.0000 100.0000
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates:
relative indicators' values related to: 6) mass
vaccinations
INPUT DATA:
type of specific vaccination
? against brucellosis (B.melitensis)
species, category(ies) ?
sheep,females
place, period ? Province
C.,1998
number of animals of the
given population ? 700000
number of specifically
diseased animals ? 1500
number of animals in specific
foci ? 6000
number of animals in
threatened zones ? 70000
number of vaccinated
animals ? 60000
number of vaccinations in the
given period ? 80000
grade of vaccine immunization
effect (>0 - 1) ? 0.8
RESULT:
Proportion of vaccinated
animals in the given population = 0.0857
i.e. in percentage =
8.5714
Ratio of vaccinated/diseased
animals = 40.0000
Ratio of
vaccinated/intrafocal animals
= 10.0000
Ratio of
vaccinated/threatened zones animals
= 0.8571
Ratio of
vaccinated/intrafocal+threat. zones animals
= 0.7895
Grade of vaccination
repetitions in the given period
= 1.3333
Grade of supposed population
postvaccination immunity = 0.0686
Do you want to estimate the
grade of population immunity after certain time
in relation to regular population replacement, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
INPUT DATA:
number of vaccinated animals
at the beginning of the evaluated
period ? 39800
regular continuing
replacement period in days ?
400
period between the initial
and evaluation moments in days (must be
shorter than the regular replacement period !) ? 180
RESULT:
At the moment of evaluation
about 21890 animals still remain from
the initial number of 39800 vaccinated animals.
If we take into consideration
0.8000 grade of supposed postvaccination immunity, then we could estimate 17512
specifically immune animals representing about 44.00 % of initially vaccinated animals.
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates:
relative indicators' values related to:
7) mass treatments
INPUT DATA:
specific animal health
actions ? fasciolosis deworming
species, category(ies) ?
sheep,all
place, period ?
number of animals of the
given population ? 909018
number of specifically
diseased animals ? 295000
number of animals in specific
foci ? 598000
number of animals in
threatened zones ? 798000
number of treated
animals ? 303000
number of treatment actions
in a given period ? 1087100
RESULT:
Proportion of treated
animals
= 0.3333 i.e. in percentage =
33.3327
Ratio of treated/diseased
animals = 1.0271
Ratio of treated/intrafocal
animals = 0.5067
Ratio of treated/threatened
zones animals = 0.3797
Ratio of
treated/intrafocal+threat. zones animals
= 0.2170
Grade of treatment repetitions
during the given period = 3.5878
9.7-'CRITICAL PATH' METHOD IN
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PLANNING
(Ref.: Lon Poole, adapted by author)
INPUT DATA:
programme ? investigations of
poultry salmonellosis
place ?
period ? January-February
2003
time measure units ? days
monetary units ? dollars
how many activities does the network (or plannig table) contain ?
12
Key data in following order for
each activity: initial node number, end
node number (must be major than initial – previous node number !), duration (in time units),
cost
activity No 1 ? 1,2,2,300
activity No 2 ? 1,3,3,400
activity No 3 ? 1,4,3.5,490
activity No 4 ?
2,5,36,1250
activity No 5 ?
3,6,48,3200
activity No 6 ?
4,7,48,1250
activity No 7 ? 5,8,3,400
activity No 8 ?
6,11,5,350
activity No 9 ?
7,10,2,300
activity No 10 ?
8,9,16,90
activity No 11 ?
9,11,4,52
activity No 12 ?
10,11,2,30
RESULT:
Activi- N o d
e T i m e unit
Duration Path Costs
ty Initial End Start
End days
dollars
1 1
2 0
2 2
critical 300
2 1
3 0
8 3
5 res 400
3 1
4 0
9 3.5
5.5 res 490
4 2
5 2
38 36
critical 1250
5 3
6 3
56 48
5 res 3200
6 4
7 3.5
57 48 5.5
res 1250
7 5
8 38
41 3
critical 400
8 6
11 51
61 5
5 res 350
9 7
10 51.5
59 2
5.5 res 300
10 8
9 41 57
16 critical 90
11 9
11 57 61
4 critical 52
12 10
11 53.5 61
2
5.5 res 30
Duration of critical
path =
61 days
Total costs = 8112 dollars
Note: 'res' means time reserve.
9.8-DISTRIBUTION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME INPUTS
Input: staff, material (equipment, vaccines, drugs, DDD means, etc),
money, etc.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, time ?
CzechRepublic,1966
input type, input measure
units ? money for compensation of slaughtered cattle,Kcs
criterion for input
distribution ? number of tbc cattle
total quantity of the input
units for distribution ? 95000000
List data:
part 1 : name, number of animals ?
part 2 : name, number of animals ?
part 3 : name, number of animals ?
part 4 : name, number of animals ?
part 5 : name, number of animals ?
part 6 : name, number of animals ?
part 7 : name, number of animals ?
part 8 : name, number of animals ?
RESULT:
D i s t r i b u t i o n s h a r e s
Part Number of
Percentage Absolute value
animals of total
in input units
1
2 Central
3 South
4 West
5 North
6 East
7 South
8 North
T o t a l 158267 100.00 95000000
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control, investigation, vaccination,
treatment, etc.) of: 1) animal population
INPUT DATA:
programme ? control of
foot-and-mouth disease
epi. risk (disease) ?
foot-and-mouth disease
epi. measures ? prophylactic
vaccinations
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,elder than 3 months
place, period ? Province
K.,1970
total number of animals ? 119000
number of animals at epi.
risk ? 32100
number of animals under epi.
measures ? 19800
number of animals in specific
disease foci ? 2980
number of treated
animals ?
9670
number of diseased
animals ?
2130
number of treated diseased
animals ? 510
RESULT:
Proportion of animals at
epi. risk =
0.2697
Proportion of animals
under epi. measures = 0.1664
Ratio of animals at epi.
risk / under measures = 1.6212
Ratio of animals under
epi. measures / at risk =
0.6168
Proportion of treated
animals =
0.0813
Proportion of treated from
diseased animals = 0.2394
Ratio of animals under
measures / intrafocal = 6.6443
Ratio of animals intrafocal / under
measures = 0.1505
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control,
investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 2) herds/farms
INPUT DATA:
programme ? sheep brucellosis
control
epi. risk (disease) ?
Brucella melitensis
epi. measures ? prophylactic
vaccinations
species, category(ies) ?
sheep,females
place, period ? Province T.,1976
total number of herds
(farms) ? 3520
number of herds (farms) at
epi. risk ? 1230
number of herds (farms) under
epi. measures ? 79
RESULT:
Proportion of herds at
epi. risk =
0.3494
Proportion of herds under
epi. measures = 0.0224
Ratio of herds at epi.
risk / under measures =
15.5696
Ratio of herds under epi.
measures / at risk =
0.0642
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control,
investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 3) territory
INPUT DATA:
programme ? foot-and-mouth
protection
epi. risk (disease) ?
foot-and-mouth disease
epi. measures ? vaccinations
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Province
O.,1973
surface measure units ? km2
total evaluated territory (in
surface units) ? 12400
territory at epi. risk (in
surface units) ? 8530
territory under epi. measures
(in surface units) ? 5640
RESULT:
Proportion of territory at
epi. risk = 0.6879
Proportion of territory
under epi. measures = 0.4548
Ratio territory at epi.
risk / under measures = 1.5124
Ratio territory under epi.
measures / at risk = 0.6612
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control,
investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 4) time
INPUT DATA:
programme ? preventive
measures in cattle population
epi. risk (disease) ?
foot-and-mouth disease
epi. measures ? isolation of
affected zones
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ? Country
C.,1978
time measure units ? weeks
total evaluated period (in
time units) ? 52
duration of epi. measures (in
time units) ? 35
RESULT:
Proportion of time period
under epi. measures = 0.6731
Ratio time period with/without
epi. measures =
2.0588
Ratio time period
without/with epi. measures = 0.4857
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and losses due to
diseases 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
Do you want to plan the
reduction of nidality (f), mortality
(m) or losses (l) ? f
type of nidality (foci) ? affected ranches
time measure unit ? year
number of foci at the
beginning of the programme ? 13078
r e d u c e d number of foci planned for the end of the
programme ? 0
planned period for objective
achievement in time measure units ? 9
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of year of foci of Initial Number
(start) 13078
100.0000
1 11625 88.8889
2 10172
77.7778
3 8719 66.6667
4 7266 55.5556
5 5812 44.4444
6 4359 33.3333
7 2906 22.2222
8 1453 11.1111
9 0 0.0000
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and losses due to
diseases 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? bovine
tuberculosis
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period ?
Do you want to plan the
reduction of nidality (f), mortality (m) or losses (l) ? f
type of nidality (foci) ? affected ranches
time measure unit ? year
number of foci at the beginning of the programme ? 13078
r e d u c e d number of foci planned for the end of the
programme ? 0
planned period for objective
achievement in time measure units ? 9
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number Percentage
of year
of foci of Initial Number
(start) 13078 100.0000
1 12684 96.9846
2 11548 88.3022
3 9809 75.0000
4 7674 58.6825
5 5404
41.3176
6 3270 25.0001
7 1530 11.6978
8 394 3.0154
9 0 0.0000
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and losses due to diseases 2) in
curve form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) ? all
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,calves
place, period ?
Do you want to plan the
reduction of nidality (f), mortality (m)
or losses (l) ? l
type of losses ? premature culling
losses measure units ? cases
time measure unit ? semester
number of losses in cases at
the beginning of the programme ? 129673
r e d u c e d losses in cases planned for the end of the programme ? 75000
planned period for objective
achievement in time measure units ? 8
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of semester
of cases of Initial
Number
(start) 129673 100.0000
1 127592 98.3953
2 121666 93.8255
3 112798 86.9863
4 102337 78.9189
5 91875 70.8515
6 83007 64.0123
7 77081 59.4425
8 75000 57.8378
9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY
This programme calculates the plans or prognoses for specific disease
free territory expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches,
etc.) 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
specific health ? bovine
tuberculosis free
species ? cattle
place, period ?
Do you want to plan in terms
of territory surface (t), herds
(h), farms (f), ranches (r), districts
(d), regions (g) or zones (z) ? t
type of territory ? national
territory surface measure
units ? km2
time measure unit ? semester
number of disease free
km2 at the beginning of the
programme ? 35000
i n c r e a s e d number of disease free km2 planned for the end of the programme ? 74000
planned period for objective
achievement in time measure units ? 10
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of semester of Disease
Free of Final Number
km2
(start) 35000 47.2973
1 38900 52.5676
2 42800 57.8378
3 46700 63.1081
4 50600 68.3784
5 54500 73.6486
6 58400 78.9189
7 62300 84.1892
8 66200 89.4595
9 70100 94.7297
10 74000 100.0000
9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY
This programme calculates the plans or prognoses for specific disease
free territory expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches,
etc.) 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
specific health ? bovine
brucellosis free
species ? cattle
place, period ?
Do you want to plan in terms
of territory surface (t), herds (h),
farms (f), ranches (r), districts (d), regions (g) or zones (z) ? g
type of regions ? administrative
time measure unit ? semester
number of disease free
regions at the beginning of the
programme ? 57
i n c r e a s e d number of disease free regions planned for the end of the programme ? 109
planned period for objective
achievement in time measure units ? 9
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of semester of Disease
Free of Final Number
regions
(start) 57 52.2936
1 59 53.7321
2 63 57.8742
3 70 64.2202
4 78 72.0047
5 88 80.2889
6 96 88.0734
7 103 94.4194
8 107 98.5615
9 109 100.000
10-COST AND EFFICIENCY OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMMES
==================================================================
1-Simple
indicators of economic benefit/cost analysis
2-Simple absolute economic benefit of
animal health programme
3-Biological cost/effectiveness of
animal health programme
4-Public health cost/effectiveness of
animal health programme
5-Production cost/effectiveness of
animal health programme
6-Effectiveness of prophylactic
measures and recovery rates
7-Final situation in populations with
and without programme
8-Consumption and cost of vaccines,
drugs and other substances
9-Programme benefit/cost ratio in
discounted monetary values
10-Programme benefit/cost ratio in
cumulative monetary values
11-Economic effect after specific
animal disease eradication
12-Public health effect of specific
zoonosis eradication
13-Biological effect of specific animal
disease eradication
14-Implementation of animal population
health programme
10.1-SIMPLE INDICATORS OF
ECONOMIC BENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
monetary units ? million Kcs
number of data in pairs - cost/benefit ? 11
List data:
1 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1959,90,10
2 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1960,144,100
3 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1961,182,200
4 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1962,172,300
5 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1963,171,400
6 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1964,168,500
7 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1965,138,600
8 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1966,130,750
9 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1967,181,900
10 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1968,112,1039
11 pair name, total cost, total benefit ?
1969,20,1039
RESULT:
Total cost: 1508 million Kcs Total benefit: 5838 million Kcs
Simple absolute efficiency
(benefit) = 4330 million Kcs
Benefit/cost ratio (relative
efficiency) = 3.8714
= 1 : 0.2583
Cost/benefit ratio = 0.2583
= 1 : 3.8714
10.2-SIMPLE ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC
BENEFIT OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable only when the situation has been improved ! As the phenomena
can be beside animal health/disease indicators, also relevant public health,
economic,
biological, ecological and social indicators relevant to animal health.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
number of subperiods ? 11
phenomenon ? tbc free cattle
measure units ? million Kcs
The calculation, is it based
on health benefit (positive) data
(p) or on losses (negative) data (n) ? p
values of benefit of
population health in pair :
initial (m i n o
r) ? 100
final (m a j o r) ? 1039
RESULT:
Health increase benefit due
to the programme = 939 million Kcs i.e. average per subperiod = 85 million Kcs i.e. total increase by =
90.3754 %
Subperiod Supposed Percentage
Value
of Maximum
million Kcs Value
(start) 100
9.6246
1 185 17.8406
2 270 26.0565
3 356 34.2725
4 441 42.4884
5 526 50.7044
6 612 58.9203
7 697 67.1362
8 782 75.3522
9 868 83.5681
10 953 91.7841
11 1039 100.0000
10.2-SIMPLE ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC
BENEFIT OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable only when the situation has been improved ! As the phenomena
can be beside animal health/disease indicators, also relevant public health,
economic,
biological, ecological and social indicators relevant to animal health.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine tuberculosis
elimination
place, period ?
number of subperiods ? 11
phenomenon ? losses due to
tbc cattle
measure units ? million Kcs
The calculation, is it based
on health benefit (positive) data (p) or on losses (negative) data (n) ? n
values of losses caused by
morbidity in pair :
initial (m a j o r) ? 1039
final (m i n o r) ? 10
RESULT:
Disease losses reduction
benefit due to the programme = 1029 million Kcs i.e. average per subperiod = 94 million Kcs i.e.
total decrease by = 99.0375 %
Subperiod Supposed Percentage
Value of Maximum
million Kcs Value
(start) 10 0.9625
1 103
9.9659
2 197 18.9693
3 290 27.9727
4 384 36.9761
5 477 45.9795
6 571 54.9829
7 664 63.9863
8 758 72.9898
9 851 81.9932
10 945 90.9966
11 1039 100.0000
10.3-BIOLOGICAL COST/EFFECTIVENESS
OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in: animal population size/structure, health,
morbidity, mortality, nidality, vectors/reservoirs occurrence, other disease
sources, etiological agents and their transmission, ecological conditions,
territorial distribution, population/territory at risk, etc.
Applicable only when the s i t u
a t i o n h a s b e e n
i m p r o v e d !
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
biological phenomenon ? increasing tbc free
population
biological phenomenon measure
units ? tbc free cattle
input (cost) measure
units ? Kcs
total
cost (input) of the programme ? 950000000
Is the biological phenomenon
desirable - positive (p), i.e. with
m a j o r (!!) final value
or not desirable - negative (n), i.e. with
m i n o r (!!) final value
? p
number of biological
phenomenon measure units
at the programme
beginning ? 260063
at the programme end ?
3030000
RESULT:
Difference between the
initial and final values of the
biological phenomenon = 2769937 tbc free
cattle
Change of biological
phenomenon total value by every biological unit
costs in average
342.9681 Kcs
Theoretically, for every
input unit the total value of the
biological phenomenon can be changed in average
by 0.00291572 tbc free cattle
10.3-BIOLOGICAL
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in: animal population size/structure, health,
morbidity, mortality, nidality, vectors/reservoirs occurrence, other disease
sources, etiological agents and their transmission, ecological conditions,
territorial distribution, population/territory at risk, etc.
Applicable only when the s i t u
a t i o n h a s b e e n
i m p r o v e d !
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
biological phenomenon ? tbc
cattle population
biological phenomenon measure
units ? tbc cattle heads
input (cost) measure
units ? Kcs
total
cost (input) of the programme ? 950000000
Is the biological phenomenon
desirable - positive (p), i.e.
with m a j o r (!!) final value
or not desirable - negative (n), i.e. with m i n o r (!!) final value ? n
number of biological
phenomenon measure units at the
programme beginning ? 628276
at
the programme end ? 0
RESULT:
Difference between the
initial and final values of the
biological phenomenon = -628276 tbc cattle heads
Change of biological
phenomenon total value by every biological unit costs in average 1512.0743
Kcs
Theoretically, for every
input unit the total value of the
biological phenomenon can be changed in average by
-0.00066134 tbc cattle heads
10.4-PUBLIC HEALTH
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in human population in terms: of zoonoses' risk grade,
zoonoses incidence, prevalence, nidality, mortality, invalidity, territorial distribution,
cost of treatment, etc. Applicable only when the s i t u a t i o n h a s
b e e n i m p r o v e d !
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
brucellosis eradication
place, period ?
public health phenomenon ?
increasing human population out of risk
public health phenomenon
measure units ? persons out of risk
input (cost) units ? Kcs
total input (cost)
of the programme ? 280000000
Is the public health
phenomenon desirable - positive (p),
i.e. with m a j o r
(!!) final value
or not desirable - negative (n),
i.e. with m i n o r
(!!) final value
? p
number of public health
phenomenon measure units at the
programme beginning ? 4000000
at the programme end ? 15000000
RESULT:
Difference between the initial
and final values of the public health
phenomenon = 11000000 persons out of
risk
Change of public health
phenomenon total value by every public health unit costs in average 25.4545 Kcs
Theoretically, for every input
(cost) unit the total value of the
public health phenomenon can be changed in average by
0.03928572 public health units
10.4-PUBLIC HEALTH
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in human population in terms: of zoonoses' risk grade,
zoonoses incidence, prevalence, nidality, mortality, invalidity, territorial distribution,
cost of treatment, etc. Applicable only
when the s i t u a t i o n h a s
b e e n i m p r o v e d !
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
brucellosis eradication
place, period ?
public health phenomenon ?
human brucellosis
public health phenomenon
measure units ? persons affected by brucellosis
input (cost) units ? Kcs
total input (cost)
of the programme ? 280000000
Is the public health
phenomenon desirable - positive (p), i.e. with
m a j o r (!!) final value
or not desirable - negative (n), i.e. with
m i n o r (!!) final value ? n
number of public health
phenomenon measure units at the programme beginning ? 110
at the programme end ? 0
RESULT:
Difference between the initial
and final values of the public health
phenomenon = -110 persons affected by
brucellosis
Change of public health
phenomenon total value by every public health unit costs in average 2545454.5000 Kcs
Theoretically, for every input
(cost) unit the total value of the public health phenomenon can be changed in
average by -0.00000039 public health units
10.5-PRODUCTION
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable o n l y when the situation has been improved, i.e.
for total value i n c r e a s e of
animal products (live animals, meat, milk, eggs, etc.).
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
animal product ? cow milk
animal product measure
units ? liters
monetary units (abbreviation)
? Kcs
total cost of the programme
in monetary units ? 1489000000
quantity of animal product
measure units at the programme beginning
? 2563000000
at the programme end ? 3212000000
quality as p r i c e
(adjusted for inflation) of one animal product measure unit
at the programme beginning ? 4
RESULT:
Difference between the
initial and final quantity of cow milk =
648999936 liters
Increase of the quantity
of cow milk by one liters costs in average 2.2943 Kcs
For every one Kcs input the
quantity of cow milk increases in
average by 0.43586296 liters
Difference between the
initial and final monetary value of cow
milk = 4041399040 Kcs
Increase of the monetary
value of cow milk by one Kcs costs in
average 0.3684 Kcs
For every one Kcs input the
monetary value of cow milk increases in average by
2.714170 Kcs
10.5-PRODUCTION COST/EFFECTIVENESS
OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable o n l y when the situation has been improved, i.e.
for total value i n c r e a s e of
animal products (live animals, meat, milk, eggs, etc.).
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
animal product ? beef
animal product measure
units ? MT
monetary units (abbreviation)
? Kcs
total cost of the programme
in monetary units ? 1489000000
quantity of animal product
measure units at the programme
beginning ? 230000
at
the programme end ? 515000
quality as p r i c e
(adjusted for inflation) of one animal product measure unit
at the programme beginning ? 30000
at the programme end ? 35000
RESULT:
Difference between the
initial and final quantity of beef
= 285000 MT
Increase of the quantity
of beef by one MT costs in average 5224.5615 Kcs
For every one Kcs input the
quantity of beef increases in average by
0.00019140 MT
Difference between the initial and final
monetary value of beef = 11125000192 Kcs
Increase of the monetary
value of beef by one Kcs costs in average
0.1338 Kcs
For every one Kcs input the
monetary value of beef increases in
average by 7.471457 Kcs
10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF
PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES
This subprogramme calculates:1) effectiveness
of prophylactic measures (vaccination,
preventive treatment, other preventive measures)
INPUT DATA:
prophylactic measures ?
vaccination against hog cholera
place, time ? Farm B.,May
2004
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,youth
Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data ? a
number of animals at risk
prophylactically treated ? 122
number of animals at risk
prophylactically non-treated ? 149
number of diseased among
prophylactically treated animals at
risk ? 3
number of diseased among
prophylactically non-treated animals at risk
? 68
RESULT:
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at risk =
94.6119 %
10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF
PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES
This subprogramme calculates: 1) effectiveness
of prophylactic measures (vaccination,
preventive treatment, other preventive measures)
INPUT DATA:
prophylactic measures ?
vaccination against hog cholera
place, time ?
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data ? r
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
specific risk (in %) ? 2
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
direct risk (in %) ? 3
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
indirect risk (in %) ? 1
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
specific risk (in %) ? 65
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
direct risk (in %) ? 90
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
indirect risk (in %) ? 20
RESULT:
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at risk =
96.9231 %
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at direct
risk = 96.6667 %
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at indirect
risk = 95.0000 %
10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF
PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES
This subprogramme calculates: 2) disease recovery rates in treated and
non-treated animals
INPUT DATA:
recovery measures ? treatment
of mastitis
place, time ? Ranch B.,June
2004
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,milking cows¨
Recovery rates calculation is applicable when positive difference between treated and non-treated animals is expected and all numeric input data (major than >0)
are available !
number of specifically
diseased animals ? 205
number of specifically
diseased animals under recovery
measures ? 179
number of a l l
recovered animals from a disease
? 170
number of treated animals
recovered from a disease ? 167
RESULT:
Proportion of treated
diseased animals =
0.8732
Rate of all recovered
diseased animals =
0.8293
Recovery rate of treated
diseased animals =
0.9330
Recovery rate of non-treated
diseased animal =
0.1154
Ratio of treated/non treated
animals' recovery rates = 8.09 : 1
Ratio of non treated/treated
animals' recovery rates = 0.12 : 1
10.7-COMPARISON OF FINAL
SITUATION IN POPULATIONS WITH AND WITHOUT PROGRAMME
Programme of reduction of
disease(s) morbidity, mortality or nidality if o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s are the
s a m e ! Applicable only for cases
when the programme i m p r o v e s the situation in comparison with w o r s e n
i n g situation without programme (due
to disease spreading) !
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
place, period?
epi. phenomenon (disease
indicator) ? prevalence
phenomenon measure units ?
tbc cattle
monetary units ? Kcs
value of average loss by one
unit of the phenomenon ? 5000
i n i t i a l number of epi. phenomenon units in the compared populations (the s a m e
in both) ? 628276
f i n a l (reduced) number of epi. phenomenon units in
population w i t h programme ? 0
f i n a l (increased) number of epi. phenomenon units
in population w i t h o u t programme
? 1000000
total cost of the
programme ?
950000000
RESULT:
Reduction of prevalence in population w i t h
the programme = 628276 tbc cattle
i.e. benefit = 3141380000 Kcs,
while in the population w i t h o u t programme
the epi. situation becomes worse by
371724 tbc cattle of value
of 1858620000 Kcs.
Programme benefit/cost
ratio = 3.3067
or 1 :
0.3024
Programme cost/benefit
ratio = 0.3024
or 1 :
3.3067
The reduction of the losses by
one phenomenon measure unit costs in
average 1512 Kcs.
Theoretically, if this average
is applied on the population (of the same
size and situation) w i t h o u t
programme to reach a similar result in the future under the same or similar
conditions, the late programme may cost
about 1512074311 Kcs (not considering inflation or discount), i.e.
562074311 Kcs more.
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme calculates: -
consumption and cost according to
the coverage (quantity) need of: 1) vaccines or drugs
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) ?
prophylactic vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease
place, time ?
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
name of substance ? FMD AO
vaccine
substance measure units ? ml
monetary units ? Kcs
price of one substance
unit ? 1
average dosis in substance
measure units ? 5
number of individual
aplications ? 1966000
RESULT:
Average dosis price = 5.00 Kcs
Total consumption of FMD AO vaccine =
9830000 ml
Total cost =
9830000 Kcs
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme calculates: - consumption and cost according to the coverage (quantity) need of: 2) solutions
for disinfection or disinfestation
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) ?
disinfection in FMD outbreak area
place, time ? Farm
name of substance ? NaOH substance measure units ? kg
monetary units ? dollars price of one substance unit ? 2
average substance
concentration (%) in the solution ? 2
surface measure units ? m2
average of the solution per
one surface unit in liters ? 2.5
total surface for the
application of the solution ? 1500
RESULT:
Consumption of NaOH per one surface unit =
0.0500 kg
Total consumption of NaOH = 75 kg
Cost per one surface unit =
0.1000 dollars
Total cost = 150 dollars
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme calculates: - quantity
according to available financial input for:
3) vaccines or drugs
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) ?
vaccination against
place, time ? Ranch R.,April
2002
species, category(ies) ? poultry,hen
name of substance ? live
vaccine substance measure units ? ml
monetary units ?
dollars price of one substance unit ? 0.2
average dosis in substance
measure units ? 0.5
available financial
input ?
12500
RESULT:
Average dosis price = 0.10 dollars
Available financial input is
for 125000 doses.
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme calculates: - quantity according to available
financial input for: 4) solutions for disinfection or
disinfestation
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) ?
disinfection in hog cholera farm
place, time ? Farm E.,end of
June 2002
name of substance ? NaOH substance measure units ? kg
monetary units ? dollars price of one substance unit ? 2
average substance
concentration (%) in the solution ?
1.5
surface measure units ? m2
average of the solution per
one surface unit in liters ? 2
available financial
input ? 8500
RESULT:
Available financial input is for 141667 m2 .
10.9-PROGRAMME BENEFIT/COST
RATIO IN DISCOUNTED MONETARY VALUES
(Ref.: Putt et al.)
For phenomena measured in monetary units. Discounted = present value.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place, period ?
duration of subperiod (year,
month, etc.) ? year
number of subperiods to be evaluated ? 18
monetary units ? million Kcs
discount rate ? 0.05
Key in pairs monetary values
(adjusted for inflation) of benefit, cost:
subperiod 1 :
? 10,90
subperiod 2 :
? 100,144
subperiod 3 :
? 200,182
subperiod 4 :
? 300,172
subperiod 5 :
? 400,171
subperiod 6 :
? 500,168
subperiod 7 :
? 600,138
subperiod 8 :
? 750,130
subperiod 9 :
? 900,181
subperiod 10 :
? 1039,112
subperiod 11 :
? 1039,20
subperiod 12 :
? 1039,15
subperiod 13 :
? 1039,10
subperiod 14 :
? 1039,5
subperiod 15 :
? 1039,2
subperiod 16 :
? 1039,1
subperiod 17 :
? 1039,0
subperiod 18 :
? 1039,0
RESULT:
year Benefit
Cost Discount D
i s c
o u n
t e d
million Kcs million Kcs factor
benefit cost ben.- cost
1 10
90 0.9524
10 86
-76
2 100
144 0.9070 91
131 -40
3 200 182
0.8638
173 157 16
4 300 172 0.8227 247 142
105
5 400 171 0.7835 313 134 179
6 500 168
0.7462
373 125 248
7
600 138
0.7107 426
98
328
8 750 130 0.6768 508
88
420
9 900 181
0.6446
580 117 463
10 1039 112
0.6139
638 69
569
11 1039 20
0.5847
607 12
596
12 1039 15
0.5568
579 8
570
13 1039 10
0.5303
551 5 546
14 1039 5
0.5051
525 3
522
15 1039 2
0.4810
500 1 499
16 1039 1
0.4581 476 0
476
17 1039 0
0.4363
453 0 453
18 1039 0
0.4155
432 0
432
Total 13111 1541 7481
1175 6306
Ratio of total benefit / total
cost = 8.5081
= 1 : 0.1175
Ratio of total cost / total
benefit = 0.1175
= 1 : 8.5081
Difference between total benefit
and total cost = 11570 million Kcs
Ratio of total discounted
benefit / total discounted cost = 6.3658
= 1 : 0.1571
Ratio of total discounted cost /
total discounted benefit = 0.1571
= 1 : 6.3658
Difference between total
discounted benefit and total discounted
cost =
6306 million Kcs
10.10-PROGRAMME BENEFIT/COST
RATIO IN CUMULATIVE MONETARY VALUES
Applicable for the phenomena measurable in monetary units. B e n e f i t of a specific disease eradication c o n t i n u e s after the end of the programme and inputs,
thanks also to reproduction process, avoiding previous negative consequences
during the next periods and generations.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place ? Czech Republic
eradication period ?
1959-1968
post-eradication period ?
1969-1977
subperiod duration (year,
month, etc.) ? year
number of subperiods to be evaluated ? 18
monetary units ? million Kcs
Key in pairs the values (integers, adjusted for inflation) of benefit,
cost:
subperiod 1 :
? 10,90
subperiod 2 :
? 100,144
subperiod 3 :
? 200,182
subperiod 4 :
? 300,172
subperiod 5 :
? 400,171
subperiod 6 :
? 500,168
subperiod 7 :
? 600,138
subperiod 8 :
? 750,130
subperiod 9 :
? 900,181
subperiod 10 :
? 1039,112
subperiod 11 :
? 1039,20
subperiod 12 :
? 1039,15
subperiod 13 :
? 1039,10
subperiod 14 :
? 1039,5
subperiod 15 :
? 1039,2
subperiod
16 : ? 1039,1
subperiod 17 :
? 1039,0
subperiod 18 :
? 1039,0
RESULT:
year Benefit Cost
Ben/Cost Cumulative Cumulative
Cumulative
Benefit Cost B/C
1 10
90 0.1111 10 90 0.1111
2 100
144 0.6944
110
234
0.4701
3 200
182 1.0989
310 416
0.7452
4 300
172 1.7442
610
588 1.0374
5 400
171 2.3392
1010 759
1.3307
6 500
168 2.9762
1510 927
1.6289
7 600
138 4.3478
2110 1065 1.9812
8 750
130 5.7692
2860 1195 2.3933
9 900
181 4.9724
3760 1376 2.7326
10 1039 112 9.2768
4799 1488 3.2251
11 1039 20
51.9500 5838 1508 3.8714
12 1039 15
69.2667 6877 1523 4.5154
13 1039 10 103.9000 7916 1533 5.1637
14 1039 5
207.8000 8955 1538 5.8225
15 1039 2
519.5000 9994 1540 6.4896
16 1039 1
1039.000 11033
1541
7.1596
17 1039 0 12072 1541
7.8339
18 1039 0 13111
1541
8.5081
Ratio of total cumulative
benefit / total cumulative cost = 8.5081
= 1 : 0.1175
Ratio of total cumulative cost /
total cumulative benefit = 0.1175
= 1 : 8.5081
Difference between total
cumulative benefit and total cumulative
cost = 11570 million Kcs
10.11-ECONOMIC EFFECT A F T E R
SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
This subprogramme calculates the estimation of economic effect a f t e r
the eradication of a disease when the inputs stop, while the b e n e f i t
of disease free status c o n t i n u e s (avoiding the initial losses)
during next periods thanks to health 'reproduction' in following animal
generations, i.e. to m u l t i p l y i n
g e f f e c t. After-eradication saved
value = loss at programme beginning
multiplied by specific-disease free time.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place ? Czech Republic
period of eradication programme ? 1959-1968
post-eradication period ? 1969-1979
subperiod duration (year,
month, etc.) ? year
monetary units ? million Kcs
loss due to disease at
programme beginning ? 1039
total cost of the programme ? 1489
number of post-eradication
subperiods to be evaluated ? 11
discount rate of
programme cost ? 0.05
RESULT:
P o s t - Benefit -
Cumulative Ratio Ratio cumul.
eradication value saved benefit - cumulative benefit/
in value saved in benefit/
/discounted
year million Kcs million Kcs /total
cost total cost
1 1039 1039 0.6978 0.7327
2 1039 2078 1.3956 1.5386
3 1039
3117 2.0934 2.4233
4 1039 4156 2.7911 3.3926
5 1039
5195 3.4889 4.4528
6 1039
6234 4.1867 5.6106
7 1039 7273 4.8845 6.8730
8 1039 8312 5.5823 8.2476
9 1039 9351 6.2801 9.7424
10 1039
10390 6.9778 11.3662
11 1039 11429 7.6756 13.1279
Do you want to calculate total cumulative benefit including eradication
programme period and post-eradication period, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
cumulative benefit value at
eradication programme end ? 4799
P o s t - Value saved
Total cumulative Ratio Ratio cumul.
eradication value saved from cumulative benefit/
in
programme beginning benefit/
/discounted
year million Kcs
in million Kcs /total cost total cost
1 1039
5838 3.9208
4.1168
2 1039 6877 4.6185 5.0919
3 1039 7916 5.3163 6.1543
4 1039 8955
6.0141 7.3102
5 1039 9994
6.7119 8.5663
6 1039 11033 7.4097 9.9297
7 1039
12072
8.1075 11.4080
8 1039 13111
8.8052 13.0093
9 1039 14150 9.5030 14.7423
10 1039 15189
10.2008 16.6160
11 1039 16228 10.8986
18.6403
10.12-PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT OF
SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION
This subprogramme calculates public health effect of eradication in
animal population of a specific infectious disease transmissible to man. 'S a v
e d' p e r s o n s from the specific zoonosis = r e
d u c e d new cases in comparison with
initial incidence thanks to reduced risk during the programme and
post-eradication zero risk (continuing specific disease free status).
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
brucellosis eradication
place ? Czech Republic
period of the programme ?
1960-1964
number of years of the
programme ? 5
number of post-eradication
years to be evaluated (up to 11) ? 11
year 1 :
number of new specifically diseased persons ? 67
year 2 :
number of new specifically diseased persons ? 71
year 3 :
number of new specifically diseased persons ? 74
year 4 :
number of new specifically diseased persons ? 49
year
5 : number of new specifically
diseased persons ? 37
New cases in human population after eradication programme end:
year 6 from
programme beginning: number of diseased
persons ? 2
year 7 from
programme beginning: number of diseased
persons ? 10
year 8 from
programme beginning: number of diseased
persons ? 3
year 9 from
programme beginning: number of diseased
persons ? 2
year 10
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 0
year 11
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 0
year 12
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 0
year 13
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 0
year 14
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 11
year 15
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 4
year 16
from programme beginning: number
of diseased persons ? 1
RESULT:
PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT D U R I N G SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Programme Number of Cumulative Number of Cumulative
Ratio of
year new
number of of
'saved' number
new cases/
diseased
new diseased persons
of 'saved' /initial year
persons
persons persons
cases
1 67
67
0
0 1.0000
2 71 138 -4 -4 1.0597
3 74 212 -7 -11 1.1045
4 49
261 18
7 0.7313
5 37 298 30
37 0.5522
PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT A F T E R SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Number of new diseased persons during programme f i r s t
year: 67
Year Number of
Cumulative Number of Cumulative
number Ratio of
from new
number of of 'saved' of 'saved' new
cases/
programme diseased new diseased persons from /initial year
beginning persons
from programme programme cases
beginning beginning
6 2
300
65 102 0.0299
7 10 310 57
159 0.1493
8 3 313 64
223
0.0448
9 2 315 65 288
0.0299
10 0
315 67
355
0.0000
11 0 315
67
422
0.0000
12 0
315 67
489
0.0000
13
0 315
67
556
0.0000
14 11
326 56 612
0.1642
15 4
330
63 675
0.0597
16 1
331 66 741
0.0149
10.13-BIOLOGICAL EFFECT OF
SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
Number of animals or herds or territory units 's a v e d' from the specific infectious disease =
reduced number of new cases in comparison with initial incidence, thanks to
reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero risk due to c o n t i n u i n g specific disease free status.
INPUT DATA:
programme ? bovine
tuberculosis elimination
place ? Czech Republic
period of the programme ?
1959-1968
number of years of the
programme ? 10
number of post-eradication
years to be evaluated ? 11
Evaluation in affected animals (a) or herds (h) or territory units (t) ?
a
year 1 : number
of new specifically affected animals ? 357903
year 2 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 191842
year 3 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 117275
year 4 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 71467
year 5 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 57073
year 6 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 52834
year 7 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 43215
year 8 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 21585
year 9 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 14603
year 10 :
number of new specifically affected animals ? 5242
New cases after eradication programme end:
year 11 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 3692
year 12 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 1782
year 13 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 1724
year 14 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 1810
year 15 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 1717
year 16 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 1689
year 17 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 1116
year 18 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 743
year 19 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 511
year 20 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 478
year 21 from programme beginning: number of new
affected animals ? 420
RESULT:
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT D U R I N G SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Programme Number of Cumulative
Number Cumulative Ratio of
year new
number of
of 'saved' number
new cases/
affected affected animals
of 'saved' /initial year
animals animals animals cases
1 357903
357903
0 0
1.0000
2 191842
549745 166061
166061 0.5360
3 117275
667020 240628
406689 0.3277
4 71467
738487 286436
693125 0.1997
5 57073
795560 300830
993955 0.1595
6 52834
848394 305069
1299024 0.1476
7 43215
891609 314688
1613712 0.1207
8 21585
913194 336318
1950030 0.0603
9 14603
927797 343300
2293330 0.0408
10 5242
933039 352661
2645991 0.0146
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT A F T E R SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Number of new affected animals during programme first year: 357903
Year Number of Cumul. Number Number
Cum.Number Ratio of
from new
of new of 'saved'
of 'saved' new cases/
programme affected affected from animals from /initial year
beginning animals programme programme
cases
beginning beginning
11 3692
936731 354211
3000202 0.0103
12 1782
938513 356121 3356323 0.0050
13 1724 940237 356179 3712502 0.0048
14 1810
942047 356093 4068595 0.0051
15 1717
943764 356186 4424781 0.0048
16 1689
945453 356214 4780995 0.0047
17 1116
946569 356787 5137782 0.0031
18 743
947312 357160 5494942 0.0021
19 511
947823 357392 5852334 0.0014
20 478
948301 357425 6209759 0.0013
21 420
948721 357483 6567242 0.0012
10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
This subprogramme calculates: 1) implementation
of individual programmes (in terms of
indicators or activities)
INPUT DATA:
programme ? surveillance of cattle diseases
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1999
measure units ? tests
In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals
or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones
use as
- planned value: the planned
d i f f e r e n c e
- real value: the real
d i f f e r e n c e between initial and final
situation !
number of pairs of planned
and real values ? 5
List data:
1 indicator/activity, planned,
real values ? brucel.serology,344650,407000
2 indicator/activity, planned,
real values ? tuberculin.simple,716511,711929
3 indicator/activity, planned,
real values ? tuberculin.simult.,24325,17796
4 indicator/activity, planned,
real values ? IBR/IPV serolog.,79465,136053
5 indicator/activity, planned,
real values ? leukosis serolog.,240761,284841
RESULT:
Indicator V a l u e s D i f f e r e n c e IMPLEMENTATION
planned real
absolute relative of programme
%
%
brucel.serology 344650 407000
62350 18.09 118.09
tuberculin.simp 716511 711929
-4582 -0.64 99.36
tuberculin.simu 24325 17796 -6529 -26.84
73.16
IBR/IPV serolog 79465
136053 56588 71.21 171.21
leukosis serolo 240761 284841
44080 18.31 118.31
10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
This subprogramme calculates: summary table of one implementation
indicator according to 2) space
(territory)
INPUT DATA:
programme ? serological
investigation of pigs on Aujeszky disease
indicator ? test
place, period ? North
Moravia,1992
measure units ? tests
In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals
or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones
use as
- planned value: the planned
d i f f e r e n c e
- real value: the real
d i f f e r e n c e
between initial and final situation !
List data:
1 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Bruntal,335,281
2 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Frydek-Mistek,242,49
3 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Karvina,937,1464
4 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Novy Jicin,2741,3758
5 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Olomouc,4859,6885
6 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Opava,2483,3084
7 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Ostrava,197,129
8 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Prerov,4699,6569
9 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Sumperk,1495,1788
10 subterritory, planned, real
values ? Vsetin,503,362
RESULT:
V a l u e s
D i f f e r e n c e IMPLEMENTATION
Subterritory planned
real absolute relative
of programme
Bruntal 335
281 -54
-16.12 % 83.88 %
Frydek-Mistek 242 49
-193 -79.75 % 20.25 %
Karvina 937
1464 527 56.24 %
156.24 %
Novy Jicin 2741
3758 1017 37.10 %
137.10 %
Olomouc 4859
6885 2026 41.70
% 141.70 %
Opava 2483
3084 601
24.20 % 124.20 %
Ostrava 197
129
-68
-34.52 % 65.48 %
Prerov 4699
6569 1870 39.80 %
139.80 %
Sumperk 1495
1788 293
19.60 % 119.60 %
Vsetin 503
362
-141 -28.03 %
71.97 %
T o t a l 18491
24369 5878 31.79 %
131.79 %
10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
This subprogramme calculates: summary table of one implementation
indicator according to 3) time
series
INPUT DATA:
programme ? serological
investigation of cattle on brucellosis
indicator ? test
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1992-1995
measure units ? tests
In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals
or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones
use as
- planned value: the planned
d i f f e r e n c e
- real value: the real
d i f f e r e n c e between
initial and final situation !
number of pairs of planned and real values ? 4
List data:
1 subperiod, planned, real values
? 1992,125619,152920
2 subperiod, planned, real values
? 1993,1024818,1222608
3 subperiod, planned, real values
? 1994,1203869,1088418
4 subperiod, planned, real values
? 1995,1153283,1082703
RESULT:
V a l u e s
D i f f e r e n c e IMPLEMENTATION
Subperiod planned
real absolute relative
of programme
1992 125619 152920 27301 21.73 % 121.73 %
1993 1024818 1222608
197790 19.30 % 119.30 %
1994 1203869 1088418
-115451 -9.59 % 90.41 %
1995 1153283 1082703 -70580
-6.12 % 93.88 %
T o t a l 3507589
3546649 39060
1.11 %
101.11
11-COMPLEMENTARY SUBPROGRAMMES - I
======================================
1-Disease introduction risk assessment
applying user-defined criteria
2-Risk probability of test negative
results in infected animals
3-Risk probability that at least one
animal import unit is infected
4-Survival of diseased and vaccinated
animals acc. to replacement
5-Table of number changes of foci,
intrafocal and diseased animals
6-Point prevalence of foci and
intrafocal diseased/exposed animals
7-Table of foci and diseased animals
incidence/extinction
8-Table of slaughtered animals and
disease findings
9-Prevalence based on outbreaks, herd
size and infection duration
10-Relations between prevalence of
population and of affected herds
11-Animals/livestock units per territory/inhabitant/veterinarian
12-Rates of spread of animal disease
outbreaks
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease
agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from
abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades. The criteria of this 'b l a n c m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by
the u s e r h i m s e l f according to particular situation and needs. The criteria selection, sequence, grading and
the interpretation of the result must respect the logic, theoretical knowledge
and practical experience and must make epizootiological sense.
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to
process probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of
exposed animals, inability to discover
all diseased animals/herds, inability to
avoid disease agents spread,
ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)
- (i)
or
d e c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (resistance of exposed animals,
ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease agents spread, effectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? i
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions !
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a)
or animal raw products (p) ? a
species/category ? cattle
number of animals to be
imported ? 980
name of importing
unit/territory ? A name of exporting unit/territory ? B
Disproportionate increasing the number of
criteria = disproportionate (artificial)
decreasing calculated risk value (in
spite of the same situation) !
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) ? 0.1
How many other criteria to be
processed ? 3
Key risk increasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
1
criterion, grade ? inability to discover all diseased animals,0.5
2
criterion, grade ? inability to avoid disease agents spread,0.4
3
criterion, grade ? ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.4
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
1 inability to discover all diseased
animals 0.50000
2 inability to avoid disease agents spread 0.40000
3 ineffectiveness of pre-export
'filter' 0.40000
Risk probability grade of disease
agents introduction = 0.00800000 +- 0.00557755
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about 8
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease
agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from
abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades. The criteria of this 'b l a n c m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by
the u s e r h i m s e l f according to particular situation and needs.
The criteria selection, sequence, grading and the interpretation of the result
must respect the logic, theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must
make epizootiological sense.
Do you want, evaluating exporting
territory situation, to process
probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of
exposed animals, inability to discover
all diseased animals/herds, inability to
avoid disease agents spread,
ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)
- (i)
or
d e c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (resistance of exposed animals,
ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease agents spread, effectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? d
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a) or animal raw products (p) ? a
species/category ? cattle
number of animals to be
imported ? 980
name of importing
unit/territory ? A name of exporting unit/territory ? B
Disproportionate increasing
the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated
risk value (in spite of the same
situation) !
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) ? 0.1
How many other criteria to be
processed ? 3
Key risk decreasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
1
criterion, grade ? ability to discover all diseased animals,0.5
2
criterion, grade ? ability to avoid disease agents spread,0.6
3
criterion, grade ? effectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.6
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
1 ability to discover all diseased
animals 0.50000
2 ability to avoid disease agents
spread 0.60000
3 effectiveness of pre-export
'filter' 0.60000
Risk probability grade of disease
agents introduction = 0.00800000 +- 0.00557755
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about 8
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease
agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad
applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades. The criteria of this 'b l a n c m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by
the u s e r h i m s e l f according to particular situation and
needs. The criteria selection, sequence,
grading and the interpretation of the result must respect the logic,
theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological
sense.
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to
process probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a
s e a g e n t s i n t r o d u c t i o n r i
s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability to discover all diseased animals/herds, inability to avoid disease agents spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export
'filter', etc.) - (i)
or
d e c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (resistance of exposed animals,
ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease
agents spread, effectiveness of
pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? i
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a) or animal raw products (p) ? p
type of animal product ? raw meat
measure units (up to 10
characters !) ? MT
quantity of product to be imported ? 980
name of importing
unit/territory ? A name of exporting unit/territory ? B
Disproportionate increasing
the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated
risk value (in spite of the same
situation) !
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) ? 0.1
How many other criteria to be
processed ? 3
Key risk increasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
1
criterion, grade ? inability to discover all diseased animals,0.5
2
criterion, grade ? inability to avod meat contamination,0.5
3
criterion, grade ? ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.2
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
1 inability to discover all diseased
animals 0.50000
2 inability to avod meat
contamination 0.50000
3 ineffectiveness of pre-export
'filter' 0.20000
Risk probability grade of disease
agents introduction = 0.00500000 +- 0.00441611
Estimated quantity of
infected or contaminated products to be
probably imported is about 5 MT
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease
agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad
applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades. The criteria of this 'b l a n c m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by
the u s e r h i m s e l f according to particular situation and needs. The criteria selection, sequence, grading
and the interpretation of the result must respect the logic, theoretical
knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological sense.
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to
process probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of
exposed animals, inability to discover
all diseased animals/herds, inability to
avoid disease agents spread,
ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)
- (i)
or
d e c r e a s e d i s e a
s e a g e n t s i n t r o d u c t i o n r i
s k (resistance of exposed animals, ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease
agents spread, effectiveness of
pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? d
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease ? foot-and-mouth
disease
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a) or animal raw products (p) ? p
type of animal product ? meat
measure units (up to 10
characters !) ? MT
quantity of product to be imported ? 980
name of importing
unit/territory ? A name of exporting unit/territory ? B
Disproportionate increasing
the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated
risk value (in spite of the same
situation) !
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) ? 0.1
How many other criteria to be
processed ? 3
Key risk decreasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
1
criterion, grade ? ability to discover all diseased animals,0.5
2
criterion, grade ? ability to avoid meat contamination,0.5
3
criterion, grade ? effectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.8
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
1 ability to discover all diseased
animals 0.50000
2 ability to avoid meat contamination 0.50000
3 effectiveness of pre-export
'filter' 0.80000
Risk probability grade of disease
agents introduction = 0.00500000 +-
0.00441611
Estimated quantity of
infected or contaminated products to be
probably imported is about 5 MT
11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST
NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS
(Ref.: MacDiarmid)
1) Probability that an animal
which gives negative results in disease
testing is actually infected with the disease agent
INPUT DATA:
disease ? brucellosis species
? cattle
place ? Country C. time
? January 1997
true prevalence rate (number
between >0 and <1) ?
0.05
test sensitivity (number
between >0 and 1) ?
0.95
test specificity (number
between >0 and 1) ? 1
RESULT:
Probability that an animal
which gives negative results in disease
testing is actually infected with the disease agent = 0.002624671906
11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST
NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS
(Ref.: MacDiarmid)
2) Probability that an animal
which gives negative results in disease
testing and is actually infected will be included in export group
INPUT DATA:
disease ? brucellosis species
? cattle
place ? Counry C. time
? May 1999
true prevalence rate (number
between >0 and <1) ?
0.01
test sensitivity (number
between >0 and 1) ?
0.95
test specificity (number
between >0 and 1) ? 1
number of animals in the
group ? 400
RESULT:
Probability that an animal which
gives negative results in disease testing and is actually infected with the
disease agent will be included in the
group for export = 0.182879908405
11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST
NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS
(Ref.: MacDiarmid)
3) Probability of a given test
failing to detect at least one
test-positive animal in an infected group
INPUT DATA:
disease ? brucellosis species
? cattle
place ? Ranch K. time
? March 1993
true prevalence rate (number
between >0 and <1) ?
0.01
test sensitivity (number
between >0 and 1) ?
0.95
number of animals in the
group ? 2000
number of animals from the
group which are tested ? 500
RESULT:
Probability of a given test
failing to detect at least one
test-positive animal in an infected group
= 0.004413640543
11.3-RISK PROBABILITY THAT AT
LEAST ONE ANIMAL IMPORT UNIT IS INFECTED
(Ref.: Morley)
Note: Animal import unit = life animal or measure unit of raw product of animal origin (e.g.
specified weight of the product).
INPUT DATA:
disease ? brucellosis animal import units (commodity) ? pigs
place ? Country B. time ? May 2003
disease true occurrence
proportion in exporting territory (number between >0 and <1) ? 0.1
probability rate of the pathogen
being present at import time (number
between >0 and 1) ? 0.01
number of animal import
units ? 2500
RESULT:
Probability that at least one
animal import unit of the commodity importation is infected = 0.918017625809
Probability that no animal
import units are infected = 0.081982389092
11.4-SURVIVAL OF CHRONICALLY
DISEASED AND VACCINATED ANIMALS
ACCORDING TO POPULATION REPLACEMENT CYCLE
This subprogramme is applicable on groups of animals of a
particular epizootiological category
such as chronically diseased, vaccinated, etc. under the conditions that these animals are
not prematurely removed and in absence
of migration. Duration of regular replacement cycle (generation or breeding or
production cycles) must be longer than
evaluated period !
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,in feedlots
epizootiological category ?
vaccinated against hog cholera
place, period ? Ranch T.,
I.semester 2004
total number of animals of
the given epizootiological category at the beginning of the period ? 5600
duration (in days) of one
regular replacement cycle ? 180
duration (in days) between
the initial and evaluated days within
the replacement cycle ? 90
RESULT:
Estimated number of animals
of the given epizootiological category existing at the beginning of the regular
replacement cycle
and still remaining */ at the
evaluated day = 2800
*/ Note: If not eliminated
prematurely and in absence of migration.
11.5.1-TABLE OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s
at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods
of: 1) foci
INPUT DATA:
title ? INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION
OF BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS IN CZECH REPUBLIC
disease, species ? bovine
brucellosis,cattle
place (territory), period ?
Czech Republic,1960-1964
measure units ? foci
(incl. in observation)
Data according to individual
places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the
beginning, new cases, extinct cases and
at the end of subperiods (a)
or only on initial number and new
and extinct cases in subperiods (b) ? b
number of
rows ? 6
value at the beginning of the
first row ? 654
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required (real, estimated or fictitious),
key row names, number of new
cases, of extinct cases
1 row: ? 1960,29,165
2 row: ? 1961,17,107
3 row: ? 1962,17,61
4 row: ? 1963,15,110
5 row: ? 1964,10,85
6 row: ? 1965,3,107
RESULT:
Subperiod At
beginning New Extinct At the end
654
1960 29 165
518
1961 17 107
428
1962 17 61 384
1963 15 110 289
1964 10
85 214
1965 3 107 110
T o t a l 654
91
635
110
11.5.2-TABLE OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s
at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods
of: 2) intrafocal animals
INPUT DATA:
title ? CHANGES IN NUMBER OF
SWINE ATROPHIC RHINITIS FOCI
disease, species ? athrophic
rhinitis,pigs
place (territory), period ?
Czech Republic,1982-1987
measure units ? foci
Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the
beginning, new cases, extinct cases and
at the end of subperiods (a)
or only on initial number and new
and extinct cases in subperiods (b) ? a
number of rows ? 6
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real, estimated or fictitious),
key row names, values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases,
at the end :
1 row: ? 1982,156,42,95,103
2 row: ? 1983,103,29,71,61
3 row: ? 1984,61,37,43,55
4 row: ? 1985,55,18,34,39
5 row: ? 1986,39,22,21,40
6 row: ? 1987,40,20,21,39
RESULT:
Subperiod At
beginning New Extinct At the end
1982 156 42 95 103
1983 103 29
71 61
1984 61 37 43 55
1985 55 18 34 39
1986 39
22 21 40
1987 40
20 21 39
11.5.2-TABLE OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s
at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods
of: 2) intrafocal animals
INPUT DATA:
title ? CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF PIGS IN AUJESZKY DISEASE FOCI
disease, species ? Aujeszky
disease,pigs
place (territory), period ?
Province T.,1990-1993
measure units ? intrafocal
animals
Data according to individual places
(p) or subperiods (s) ? p
number of rows ? 4
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real, estimated or
fictitious),
key row names, values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases,
at the end :
1 row: ? Region
O.,1000,300,400,900
2 row: ? Region
H.,15000,5000,2000,18000
3 row: ? Region T.,1200,400,400,1200
4 row: ? Region
J.,300,100,100,300
RESULT:
Subterritory At
beginning New Extinct At the end
Region O. 1000
300
400
900
Region H. 15000
5000
2000 18000
Region T. 1200 400
400
1200
Region J. 300 100
100
300
T o t a l 17500 5800
2900 20400
RESULT:
11.5.3-TABLE OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s
at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods
of: 3) diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
title ? BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA - INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION
disease, species ?
brucellosis,cattle
place (territory), period ?
Czechoslovakia,1960-1966
measure units ? affected cattle
Data according to individual
places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the
beginning, new cases, extinct cases and
at the end of subperiods (a)
or only on initial number and new
and extinct cases in subperiods (b) ? a
number of rows ? 7
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real, estimated or
fictitious),
key row names, values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases,
at the end :
1 row: ?
1960,98596,9823,2186,106233
2 row: ?
1961,106233,4279,22091,88421
3 row: ?
1962,88421,1188,20649,68960
4 row: ?
1963,68960,1511,42184,28287
5 row: ?
1964,28287,2631,30918,0
6 row: ? 1965,0,309,309,0
7 row: ? 1966,0,167,167,0
RESULT:
Subperiod At
beginning New Extinct At the end
1960 98596
9823
2186 106233
1961 106233 4279 22091 88421
1962 88421
1188 20649 68960
1963 68960
1511 42184 28287
1964 28287
2631
30918 0
1965 0 309
309 0
1966 0 167 167
0
11.5.3a-TABLE OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s
at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods
of: 3) diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
title ? INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION OF CATTLE TUBERCULOSIS IN
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
disease, species ? bovine
tuberculosis,cattle
place (territory), period ?
Czechoslovakia,1960-1969
measure units ? tbc cattle
Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the
beginning, new cases, extinct cases and
at the end of subperiods (a)
or only on initial number and new
and extinct cases in subperiods (b) ? a
number of rows ? 10
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required,
key row names, values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases,
at the end :
1 row: ?
1960,859557,317124,282888,893793
2 row: ?
1961,893793,212172,309352,796613
3 row: ?
1962,796613,116231,273673,639171
4 row: ?
1963,639171,83405,245817,476759
5 row: ?
1964,476759,84185,223974,336970
6 row: ?
1965,336970,66775,197178,206567
7 row: ?
1966,206567,36896,144115,99348
8 row: ?
1967,99348,27097,106968,19477
9 row: ? 1968,19477,5450,24927,0
10 row: ? 1969,0,3863,3863,0
RESULT:
Subperiod At beginning New
Extinct At the end
1960 859557 317124 282888 893793
1961 893793 212172 309352 796613
1962 796613 116231 273673 639171
1963 639171 83405 245817 476759
1964 476759 84185 223974 336970
1965 336970 66775 197178 206567
1966 206567 36896 144115 99348
1967 99348 27097 106968 19477
1968 19477 5450 24927
0
1969 0 3863 3863 0
11.5.3b-TABLE OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s
at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods
of: diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
Title - INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION OF TB CATTLE IN CZECH REPUBLIC DURING
1959-1968
disease, species ? TB,cattle
place (territory), period ?
Czech Republic,1959-1968
measure units ? affected
cattle
Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data on numbers at
the beginning, new cases, extinct cases
and at the end of subperiods (a) or only
on initial number and new and extinct
cases in subperiods (b) ? b
number of rows ? 10
value at the beginning of the
first row ? 497006
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key row names, number of new cases, of
extinct cases:
1 row: ? 1959,357903,226633
2 row: ? 1960,191842,189280
3 row: ? 1961,117275,182454
4 row: ? 1962,71476,180566
5 row: ? 1963,57073,163885
6 row: ? 1964,52832,153305
7 row: ? 1965,43215,134232
8 row: ? 1966,21285,99543
9 row: ? 1967,14603,75135
10 row: ? 1968,5243,24720
RESULT
Subperiod At
beginning New Extinct At the end
497006
1959 357903 226633 628276
1960 191842 189280 630838
1961 117275 182454 565659
1962 71476
180566 456569
1963 57073 163885 349757
1964 52832 153305 249284
1965 43215 134232 158267
1966 21285 99543 80009
1967 14603 75135 19477
1968 5243
24720
0
T o t a l 497006 932747 1429753 0
11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS
This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned
data 1) related to a selected disease according to different places
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) ?
brucellosis,all
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
territory ? Czech Republic time (moment) ? 1.1.1963
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required key P l a c e
name, number of foci, intrafocal
animals, diseased animals:
1 row: ? Centr.Bohemia,110,38791,15455
2 row: ? S.Bohemia,15,2734,287
3 row: ? W.Bohemia,13,2430,0
4
row: ? N.Bohemia,34,8499,1558
5 row: ? E.Bohemia,0,0,0
6
row: ? S.Moravia,33,13483,5988
7 row: ? N.Moravia,18,3340,0
RESULT:
P l a c e F
o c i I n t r a f o c a l a n i m a l s Intraf.Diseased
T o t a l
Diseased Exposed Prevalence Rate
Centr.Bohemi 110 38791
15455 23336 0.3984
S.Bohemia 15
2734 287
2447 0.1050
W.Bohemia 13
2430
0
2430 0.0000
N.Bohemia 34
8499 1558 6941 0.1833
E.Bohemia 0
0 0
0 0.0000
S.Moravia 33
13483 5988
7495 0.4441
N.Moravia 18
3340 0 3340 0.0000
T o t a l 223
69277
23288 45989
0.3362
Average per focus 311
104 206 0.3362
11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS
This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned
data 2) related to a selected disease according to different moments
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) ? bovine
brucellosis,all
species, category(ies) ? cattle,all
territory ? Czech Republic period ? 1961-1965
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, ,key M o m e n t
name, number of foci, intrafocal animals, diseased animals:
1 row:
? 1.1.1961,518,110891,3321
2 row: ? 1.1.1962,428,93382,33656
3 row: ? 1.1.1963,223,69248,25288
4 row: ? 1.1.1964,168,56536,7998
5 row: ? 1.1.1965,119,40470,0
RESULT:
Moment F o c I I n t r a f o c a l a n i m a l s Intraf.Diseased
T o t a l Diseased Exposed
Prevalence Rate
1.1.1961 518 110891 3321 107570 0.0299
1.1.1962 428 93382 33656 59726 0.3604
1.1.1963 223 69248 25288 43960 0.3652
1.1.1964 168 56536 7998 48538 0.1415
1.1.1965 119 40470 0 40470
0.0000
11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS
This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned
data 3) related to different diseases in the same territory and moment
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ? pigs,all
territory ? Czechoslovakia time (moment) ? 31.12.1987
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required (real or estimated), key Disease name, number of foci, intrafocal animals, diseased
animals:
1 row: ? Tuberculosis,27,65812,266
2 row: ? Aujeszky dis.,6,72083,0
3 row: ? Salmonellosis,1,4086,0
4 row: ? Rhinitis atr.,39,104506,249
5 row: ? Dysentery,54,240643,3663
6 row: ? Muscle dis.,34,51519,427
7
row: ? Pleuropneum.,22,106037,1634
8 row: ? Parvovirosis,21,29249,150
RESULT:
Disease F o c i
I n t r a f o c a l a n i m a
l s Intraf.Diseased
T o t a l Diseased Exposed
Prevalence Rate
Tuberculosis 27 65812
266 65546 0.0040
Aujeszky dis. 6
72083 0 72083 0.0000
Salmonellosis 1 4086
0 4086 0.0000
Rhinitis atr. 39
104506 249 104257
0.0024
Disentery 54
240643 366 236980 0.0152
Muscle dis. 34
51519 427 51092 0.0083
Pleuropneum. 22 106037
1634 104403 0.0154
Parvovirosis 21
29249 150 29099 0.0051
11.7-TABLE OF FOCI AND
DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION
This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data 1) related
to a selected disease according to different places
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) ? Newcastle
disease,all
species, category(ies) ? poultry,hen
territory ? Province G. total period ? 2003
key P l a c e name, number of new
foci, extinct foci, newly diseased animals, dead+killed diseased animals,
slaughtered diseased animals,
slaughtered suspect animals:
row 1 : ? Region J.,23,12,560,120,10,410
row 2 : ? Region Y.,13,10,350,98,35,1300
row 3 : ? Region K.,3,2,78,6,45,670
row 4 : ? Region G.,5,4,98,60,39,1200
row 5 : ? Region O.,34,23,780,230,45,2670
RESULT:
P l a c e F
o c i D
i s e a s e d A n i m a l s Suspect An.
New Extinct
New Dead+Kil. Slaught. Slaughtered
Region J. 23
12 560
120
10
410
Region Y. 13
10 350
98 35
1300
Region K. 3
2 78
6 45 670
Region G. 5
4
98 60
39 1200
Region O. 34 23 780
230
45 2670
T o t a l 78
51 1866
514
174 6250
Animals per one new focus 24 7
2 80
11.7-TABLE OF FOCI AND
DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION
This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data 2) related
to a selected disease according to different
subperiods
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) ? enzootic leukosis,all
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
territory ? Czechoslovakia total period ? 1978-1987
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key Subperiod name, number of new foci, extinct foci, newly
diseased animals, dead+killed diseased
animals, slaughtered diseased animals, slaughtered suspect animals:
row 1 : ? 1978,11,13,641,26,408,149
row 2 : ? 1979,15,11,845,0,296,453
row 3 : ? 1980,12,12,1089,2,538,228
row 4 : ? 1981,16,8,3803,0,951,79
row 5 : ? 1982,29,16,5967,49,1430,13
row 6 : ? 1983,141,22,12814,103,2952,188
row 7 : ? 1984,760,24,22696,81,6270,337
row 8 : ? 1985,290,67,15664,125,10564,606
row 9 : ? 1986,145,224,19024,177,16829,210
row 10 : ? 1987,164,278,22752,239,18049,1073
RESULT:
Subperiod F
o c i D
i s e a s e d A n i m a l s Suspect An.
New Extinct
New Dead+Kil. Slaught. Slaughtered
1978 11 13 641 26
408
149
1979 15 11 845 0
296 453
1980 12 12
1089 2
538 228
1981 16 8
3803 0
951 79
1982 29
16 5967
49 1430
13
1983 141 22 12814
103 2952 188
1984 760 24
22696 81
6270 337
1985 290 67
15664 125 10564 606
1986 145
224
19024 177
16829 210
1987 164
278 22752
239 18049 1073
T o t a l 1583
675 105295
802
58287 3336
Animals per one new focus 67 1
37
2
11.7-TABLE OF FOCI AND
DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION
This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data 3)
related to different diseases in the same territory and period
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) ?
pigs,all
territory ? Czechoslovakia total period ? 1987
Respecting the sequence
order and providing a l l
data required, key Disease name,
number of new foci, extinct foci, newly diseased animals, dead+killed
diseased animals, slaughtered diseased animals, slaughtered suspect animals:
row 1 : ? Tuberculosis,40,28,2483,16,2086
row 2 : ? Aujeszky dis.,1,4,100,100,0,0
row 3 : ? Salmonellosis,11,10,1743,363,20,63
row 4 : ? Rhinitis atr.,20,21,6695,59,5295,112
row 5 : ? Dysentery, 28,26,119785,4574,5119,926
row 6 : ? Muscle dis.,1,0,15042,7977,114,38
row 7 : ? Pleuropneum.,20,16,28433,2637,1835,251
row 8 : ? Parvovirosis,14,9,753,210,14,0
RESULT:
Disease F
o c i
D i s e a s e d A n i m a l s Suspect An.
New Extinct
New Dead+Kil. Slaught. Slaughtered
Tuberculosis 40 28
2483 16 2086
0
Aujeszky dis 1
4 100
100 0
0
Salmonellosi 11 10
1743 363
20 63
Rhinitis atr 20
21
6695 59
5295 112
Dysentery 28
26 119785
4574 5119 926
Muscle dis. 1
0 15042 7977
114 38
Pleuropneum. 20 16
28433 2637
1835 251
Parvovirosis 14
9 753 210
14 0
T o t a l 135
114 175034
15936 14483
1390
11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of
slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs: 1) Total
slaughtered animals, edible, conditionally edible
Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
territory, period ? Czech
Republic,1987
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key P l a c e names and continue with columns values of total slaughtered, edible, conditionally
edible after sterilization, conditionally edible after other treatment:
1 row: ? Prague,117622,108947,2696,5541
2 row: ?
Centr.Bohemia,114519,89014,2842,2093
3 row: ?
S.Bohemia,115873,100117,2221,12039
4 row: ?
W.Bohemia,113534,94885,2508,14850
5 row: ?
N.Bohemia,90103,73751,6044,9481
6 row: ? E.Bohemia,141645,118190,3979,17518
7 row: ?
S.Moravia,218509,181283,1932,30880
8 row: ?
N.Moravia,155295,133955,3653,15915
RESULT:
P l a c e T o t a l Edible
Conditionally edible Non edible
slaughtered steriliz. oth. treat.
Prague 117622 108947 2696 5541
438
Centr.Bohemia 114519 89014
2842 2093
20570
S.Bohemia 115873 100117 2221 12039 1496
W.Bohemia 113534
94885 2508 14850 1291
N.Bohemia 90103 73751
6044 9481
827
E.Bohemia 141645 118190 3979 17518
1958
S.Moravia 218509 181283 1932 30880 4414
N.Moravia 155295 133955 3653 15915
1772
T o t a l 1067100
900142 25875
108317 32766
Proportion 1.0000
0.8435
0.0242 0.1015
0.0307
11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of
slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:
2) Sanitary (emergency)
slaughtered animals
Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
territory, period ? Czech
republic,1987
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key P l a c e names and continue
with columns values of total
slaughtered, sanitary slaughtered:
1 row: ? Prague,55366,4116
2 row: ? C.Bohemia,47052,15075
3 row: ?
S.Bohemia,44398,12021
4 row: ? W.Bohemia,45759,9110
5 row: ? N.Bohemia,39733,8143
6 row: ? E.Bohemia,66842,19600
7 row: ? S.Moravia,86275,21987
8 row: ?
S.Moravia,63849,11257
RESULT:
P l a c e T o t a l Sanitary Proportion Percentage
Slaughtered slaughtered
Prague 55366
4116
0.0743 7.4342
C.Bohemia 47052 15075 0.3204
32.0390
S.Bohemia 44398 12021 0.2708
27.0755
W.Bohemia 45759 9110
0.1991 19.9087
N.Bohemia 39733 8143
0.2049 20.4943
E.Bohemia 66842 19600 0.2932
29.3229
S.Moravia 86275 21987 0.2548
25.4848
S.Moravia 63849 11257 0.1763
17.6307
T o t a l 449274 101309 0.2255
22.5495
11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of
slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:
3) Disease findings during
inspection of slaughtered animals and meat
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) ? pigs,all
territory, period ?
Czechoslovakia,1987
number of slaughtered animals
? 7430947
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key specific disease name (up
to 12 characters !), number of disease findings:
1 row: ? Tuberculosis,27341
2 row: ? Salmonellosis,423
3 row: ? Aujeszky dis.,133
4 row: ? Leukosis,20
5 row: ? Respir.inf.,20690
6 row: ? Diarrheas,3752
7 row: ? Other inf.,5558
8 row: ? Parasitoses,868
RESULT:
D i s e a s e Number of
Proportion %
Proportion %
findings
of total
findings of total
slaughtered
Tuberculosis 27341
0.4651 46.5102 0.0037 0.3679
Salmonellosis 423
0.0072
0.7196 0.0001 0.0057
Aujeszky dis. 133
0.0023 0.2262
0.0000 0.0018
Leukosis 20
0.0003 0.0340 0.0000 0.0003
Respir.inf. 20690 0.3520
35.1961 0.0028 0.2784
Diarrheas 3752
0.0638 6.3826
0.0005
0.0505
Other inf. 5558 0.0945
9.4548
0.0007
0.0748
Parasitoses 868
0.0148 1.4766
0.0001
0.0117
T o t a l 58785
1.0000 100.0000 0.0079 0.7911
11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of
slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:
4) Confiscation of internal
organs of slaughtered animals
Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,all
territory, period ? Czech
Republic,1987
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key P l a c e names and continue
with columns values of
confiscated lungs, hearts, livers, spleens, kidneys
1 row: ?
Prague,131148,2204,14538,3879,11256,28669
2 row: ?
C.Bohemia,18866,4356,15848,4455,16211,206099
3 row: ?
S.Bohemia,16183,2672,10842,4575,11160,188988
4 row: ?
W.Bohemia,21087,5703,14442,6463,15449,164751
5 row: ? No.Bohemia,23066,4398,12955,7838,12369,186062
6 row: ?
E.Bohemia,20445,4746,20270,7070,15991,303476
7 row: ?
S.Moravia,39906,8355,23620,12931,31592,523545
8 row: ?
N.Moravia,45766,3727,16210,5140,44492,210562
RESULT:
P l a c e Lungs Hearts
Livers Spleens
Kidneys
Prague 131148 2204 14538 3879 11256
C.Bohemia 18866 4356 15848 4455 16211
S.Bohemia 16183 2672 10842 4575 11160
W.Bohemia 21087
5703 14442 6463 15449
No.Bohemia 23066
4398 12955 7838 12369
E.Bohemia 20445 4746 20270 7070 15991
S.Moravia 39906 8355 23620
12931 31592
N.Moravia 45766 3727 16210
5140
44492
T o t a l 316467 36161
128725 52351
158520
11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of
slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:
5) Causes of premature slaughter
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) ?
cattle,cows
territory, period ? Czech
Republic,1987
number of slaughtered animals
? 449274
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required, key disease -
causes names, number of cases :
1 row: ? Notifiable inf.,2839
2 row: ? Respir.dis.,4100
3 row: ? Digest.dis.,25897
4 row: ? Mobil.org.d.,26358
5 row: ? Reprod.dis.,21381
6 row: ? Intoxication,1722
7 row: ? Other dis.,19012
RESULT:
C a u s e s Number of Proportion
% Proportion %
cases of total cases of total slaughtered
Notifiable inf. 2839 0.0280
2.8023 0.0063 0.6319
Respir.dis. 4100 0.0405
4.0470 0.0091 0.9126
Digest.dis. 25897
0.2556 25.5624 0.0576 5.7642
Mobil.org.d. 26358
0.2602 26.0174 0.0587 5.8668
Reprod.dis. 21381
0.2110 21.1047 0.0476 4.7590
Intoxication 1722
0.0170 1.6998 0.0038 0.3833
Other dis. 19012
0.1877 18.7663 0.0423 4.2317
T o t a l 101309
1.0000 100.0000 0.2255 22.5495
11.9-PREVALENCE OF INTRAFOCAL
ANIMALS BASED ON THE NUMBER OF OUTBREAKS, AVERAGE HERD SIZE AND INFECTION
DURATION
INPUT DATA: (Ref.: Morley -
adapted)
disease, species ?
CBPP,cattle
place, a n n u a l period ? Country B.,1994
number of animals in the
population ?
23212325
number of outbreaks in
previous 12 months ? 10
average herd size ? 271
average duration of infection
outbreaks in days ? 120
RESULT:
Estimated annual period prevalence rate of intrafocal
animals based on the number of the
outbreaks, average herd size and
outbreak average duration =
= 0.000038
11.10-RELATIONS BETWEEN
POPULATION PREVALENCE AND AFFECTED HERDS PREVALENCE
Relations between the values of disease morbidity and nidality; applicable
if affected herds' composition and size are relatively homogenous.
INPUT DATA:
disease ? brucellosis species
? cattle
place ? Region G. time
? 1.1.2004
Answer only t w o questions about rates (>0 - <1) to calculate the value of the third one !
population prevalence rate of
diseased animals ?
0.025
average prevalence rate of
diseased animals in affected herds ?
0.1
prevalence rate of affected
herds ?
RESULT:
Estimated prevalence rate of
affected herds = 0.2500
11.10-RELATIONS BETWEEN
POPULATION PREVALENCE AND AFFECTED HERDS PREVALENCE
Relations between the values of disease morbidity and nidality; applicable
if affected herds' composition and size are relatively homogenous.
INPUT DATA:
disease ? brucellosis species
? cattle
place ? Region G. time
? 1.1.2004
Answer only t w o questions about rates (>0 - <1) to calculate the value of the third one !
population prevalence rate of
diseased animals ?
average prevalence rate of
diseased animals in affected herds ?
0.1
prevalence rate of affected
herds ?
0.25
RESULT:
Estimated population prevalence
rate of diseased animals = 0.0250
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 1) average number of animals per territory
unit
Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes,
horses,mules/asses, camels, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry.
Do you want to add o n e
other species, yes(y) or no(n) ? n
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 18000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
territory measure units ? 1000 ha
land area total ? 7886
arable land ? 7728
pastures ? 890
RESULTS:
Average number of animals per
1000 ha
----------------------------------------------------
Species Total Arable
Pastures
Land Land
cattle 257.4182 262.6812 2280.8989
dairy cows 97.3878
99.3789
862.9213
buffaloes 0.0000
0.0000 0.0000
horses 2.2825
2.3292
20.2247
mules/asses 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
camels 0.0000
0.0000 0.0000
sheep 20.9232
21.3509 185.3933
goats 5.7063
5.8230 50.5618
pigs 490.3627
500.3882 4344.9438
chickens 3384.2252
3453.4161 29986.5168
other poultry 126.8070
129.3996 1123.5955
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 2) average number of animals per inhabitant
Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes,
horses,mules/asses, camels, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry
Do you want to add o n e
other species, yes(y) or no(n) ? n
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 18000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
total number of
inhabitants ?
10295000
inhabitants in rural
areas ? 1119000
inhabitants in urban
areas ? 589000
RESULTS:
Average number of animals per
inhabitant
-------------------------------------------------------
Species Inhabitant Inhabitant Inhabitant
in rural in
urban
areas areas
cattle 0.1972 1.8141
3.4465
dairy cows 0.0746 0.6863 1.3039
buffaloes 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
horses 0.0017 0.0161 0.0306
mules/asses 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
camels 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
sheep 0.0160 0.1475 0.2801
goats 0.0044
0.0402 0.0764
pigs 0.3756
3.4558 6.5654
chickens 2.5923
23.8499
45.3107
other poultry 0.0971 0.8937 1.6978
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT
AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 3) average number of animals per veterinarian
Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes, horses,
mules/asses, camels, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry.
Do you want to add o n e
other species, yes(y) or no(n) ? n
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 18000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
total veterinarians ? 3256
government veterinarians ? 1039
private veterinarians ? 1850
RESULTS:
Average number of animals per veterinarian
---------------------------------------------------------
Species Veterinarian Government
Private
Veterinarian
Veterinarian
cattle 623
1954
1097
dairy cows 236 739 415
buffaloes 0
0
0
horses 6 17 10
mules/asses 0
0
0
camels 0 0
0
sheep 51
159
89
goats 14
43 24
pigs 1188
3722
2090
chickens 8197 25686 14426
other poultry 307
962 541
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 4) total number of livestock units
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 18000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
Selection of livestock
units rates:
a) Conversion rates 'a':Cattle
(without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses
= 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other
poultry = 0.01.
b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle
= 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1;
goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o'
? a
RESULTS:
Total number of livestock
units = 2872280
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT
AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 5) average number of livestock units per
territory unit
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 18000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
territory measure units ? 1000 ha
land area total ? 7878
arable land ? 7728
pastures ? 890
Selection of livestock
units rates:
a) Conversion rates 'a': Cattle
(without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5;horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken =
0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle
= 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1;
goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o'
? a
RESULTS:
Total livestock
units = 2872280
Average number of
livestock units per territory unit
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Arable Pastures
Land Land
Livestock units
per 1000 ha 364.60
371.67 3227.28
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT
AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 6) average number of livestock units per inhabitant
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 180000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
total number of
inhabitants ?
10295000
inhabitants in rural
areas ? 1119000
ihabitants in urban
areas ? 599000
Selection of livestock
units rates:
a) Conversion rates 'a': Cattle
(without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken =
0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle
= 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1;
goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o'
? a
RESULTS:
Total livestock units = 3034280
Average number of
livestock units per inhabitant
----------------------------------------------------------------
Inhabitant Inhabitant
Inhabitant
in rural in urban
areas areas
Livestock units
0.2947 2.7116
5.0656
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 7) average number of livestock units per
veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0
number of horses, mules/asses, camels ? 18000,0,0
number of sheep, goats, pigs ? 165000,45000,3867000
number of chickens, other
poultry ? 26688000,1000000
total veterinarians ? 3356
government veterinarians ? 1039
private veterinarians ? 1850
Selection of livestock
units rates:
a) Conversion rates 'a': Cattle
(without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken =
0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle
= 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1;
goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o'
? a
RESULTS:
Total livestock
units = 2872280
Average number of livestock units per
veterinarian
------------------------------------------------------------------
Veterinarian
Government Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
Livestock units
856 2764 1553
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 8) average number of territory units per
veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
total veterinarians ? 3256
government veterinarians ? 1039
private veterinarians ? 1850
territory measure units ? 1000 ha
land area total ? 7886
arable land ? 7728
pastures ? 890
RESULTS:
Average number of territory measure units per
veterinarian
----------------- ----------------------------------------------------------
Territory Veterinarian Government
Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
total land 2.42 7.59
4.26
arable l 2.37 7.44 4.18
pastur
0.27 0.86
0.48
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT
AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators: 9) average number of inhabitants per
veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994
total veterinarians ? 3256
government veterinarians ? 1039
private veterinarians ? 1850
total number of
inhabitants ?
10295000
inhabitants in rural
areas ? 1119000
inhabitants in urban
areas ? 599000
RESULT:
Average number of inhabitants per
veterinarian
--------------------------------------------------------------
Inhabitants Veterinarian
Government Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
Total inhabitants 3162
9909
5565
Inhabitants in rural areas 344
1077 605
in urban areas 184 577 324
11.12-RATES OF SPREAD OF
ANIMAL DISEASES' OUTBREAKS
INPUT DATA:
disease, type of outbreaks ?
foot-and.mouth disease,all
territory, period ? European
Community,1977-1987
Do you have data according to subterritories (t) or subperiods (p) ? t
number of rows ? 9
data source ?
G.Davies:Rev.sci.tech.Off.int.Epiz.-1993-12(4):1109-1119
Key row names , number of primary outbreaks, secondary outbreaks
1 row: ? Denmark,2,21
2 row: ? Greece,3,7
3 row: ? United Kingd.,2,0
4 row: ? France,2,38
5 row: ? Germany,8,20
6 row: ? Italy,13,551
7 row: ? Netherlands,2,5
8 row: ? Portugal,2,1182
9 row: ? EU -total,34,1824
RESULT:
Subterritory Outbreaks
P r i m a r y S e c o n d a r
y Prim/Sec.
T o t a l Total
Rate Total
Rate R a t i o
1 :
Denmark 23 2
0.0870 21 0.9130
10.5000
Greece 10
3 0.3000 7
0.7000 2.3333
United Kingd. 2
2 1.0000
0
0.0000 0.0000
France 40
2 0.0500
38
0.9500 19.0000
Germany 28
8
0.2857 20
0.7143 2.5000
Italy 564
13 0.0230 551 0.9770
42.3846
Netherlands 7 2
0.2857 5
0.7143 2.5000
Portugal 1184
2 0.0017
1182 0.9983
591.0000
EU -total 1858 34
0.0183 1824
0.9817 53.6471
12-COMPLEMENTARY
SUBPROGRAMMES - II
=======================================
1-Health rates' adjustment based on
category structure standards
2-Morbidity/mortality adjustment based
on category rates' standards
3-Two populations rates' adjustment
based on standard proportions
4-Two populations rates' adjustment
based on category standards
5-Selection of methods for specific
disease control programme
6-Survey response rate
7-Dilution of solution for disinfection,
disinfestation, etc.
8-Summary value of animal products per
one veterinarian
9-Values of individual animal products
per one veterinarian
10-Animal commodity export/import size
per one veterinarian
11-Per capita production of food of
animal origin
12-Selection of priority diseases for
control programme
13-True prevalence estimation based on
diag. method detectability
12.1-POPULATION HEALTH RATES'
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STRUCTURE STANDARDS
(Ref.: Rose, Barker)
This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of stratified
morbidity (incidence, prevalence) rates,
mortality rates, etc. using d i r e c t standardization based on known standard
category structure of the reference population.
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? USA (acc. to Rose-p.35),1968
species ? man category(ies) ? age
disease(s)/form ? heart disease indicator/rate ? mortality
number of stratum groups -
subcategories ? 3
Do you have relative -
proportions (r) or absolute data (a)
on standard category structure ? a
List data - subcategory names, numbers of
reference population, rates:
1 : subcategory, number, rate ?
35-44 y.,3443,0.093
2 : subcategory, number, rate ? 45-54
y.,3604,0.355
3 : subcategory, number, rate ?
55-64 y.,2953,0.961
RESULT:
T A B L E OF D I
R E C T S T A N D A R D I Z A T I O N
Subcategory Subcategory Subcategory Standardized
(Stratum Group) Proportion Specific
Rate
of Reference mortality
age Population Rate
35-44 y. 0.34430 0.09300 0.03202
45-54 y. 0.36040 0.35500 0.12794
55-64 y. 0.29530 0.96100 0.28378
T o t a l 1.0000 0.44375
Direct adjusted (standardized)
mortality rate of the population =
0.44375
12.2-MORBIDITY/MORTALITY
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY RATES'
STANDARDS
(Ref.: Rose,
Barker)
This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of the stratified
morbidity (incidence, prevalence) rates, mortality rates, etc. using i n d i r
e c t standardization based on known
standard stratum-specific rates of the reference population.
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Czech Republic
(acc.Zacek-p.144),1968
species ? man category(ies) ? age
disease(s)/form ? general
indicator/rate ? mortality
observed cases ? 60955
number of stratum-specific
groups - subcategories ? 5
List data - subcategory names,
number in study, standard rate in
reference group:
1 subcategory, number in study,
standard rate ? 0-14 years,1103829,0.00225
2 subcategory, number in study,
standard rate ? 15-34 years,1489216,0.00175
3 subcategory, number in study,
standard rate ? 35-54 years,1166338,0.00525
4 subcategory, number in study,
standard rate ? 55-74 years,914276,0.03376
5 subcategory, number in study,
standard rate ? 75 - years,118365,0.13983
enter total reference
population standard rate, if available: 0.01163
RESULT:
T A B L E OF I
N D I R E C T S T A N D A R D I Z A T I
O N
Subcategory Number Standard Expected
(Stratum) in Study Mortality Cases
age Rate
0-14 years 1103829
0.0023
2484
15-34 years 1489216 0.0018
2606
35-54 years 1166338
0.0053 6123
55-74 years 914276
0.0338 30866
75 - years 118365 0.1398 16551
T o t a l 4792024 0.0116 58630
Indexed
rate = 0.0122
Standardizing
factor =
0.9506
Standardized
rate = 0.0121
Adjusted relative risk
(standardized mortality ratio) = observed cases/expected cases = 60955 / 58630
= 103.9656 %
12.3-TWO POPULATIONS RATES'
COMPARISON ADJUSTMENT BASED ON STANDARD PROPORTIONS (Ref.: Jenicek et
al., Martin et al.)
(direct standardization based on two populations' category structure)
This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of morbidity or mortality
rates (investigation results) in two populations (herds, flocks, groups, etc.)
with the same categories (according to sex, age, breed, etc.) but in different
proportions influencing the comparison result. The adjusted rate gives the
expected rate if the observed stratum-specific rates are applied in a standard
population.
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Canada
(acc.Martin-p.88),1988
species, disease(s) ?
cattle,pneumonia
indicator/rate ? incidence
category(ies) ? age of young cattle
population A, population B ?
Saleyard,Ranch
number of subcategories ? 2
List data - subcategory names, number in study, observed cases:
population A:
1 . subcategory, number in study,
cases ? calves,400,112
2 . subcategory, number in study,
cases ? yearlings,100,8
population B (do n o t r e p e a t
the name of the subcategory !):
1 . subcategory: number of in study, cases ? 50,7
2 . subcategory: number of in study, cases ? 450,18
RESULT:
S U M M A R Y T A B L E
OF B A S I C I N P U T
D A T A
P o p u l a t i o n A P o p u l a t i o n B
------------------------------------ --------------------------
Subcategory Number
in Study Rate
Number in Study
Rate
-------------------------- ------------------------
Total
Cases Total
Cases
calves 400
112
0.2800 50 7
0.1400
yearlings 100 8 0.0800
450 18
0.0400
T o t a l 500
120 0.2400 500 25
0.0500
incidence rate in subcategory 1
of both populations = 0.2644
incidence rate in subcategory 2
of both populations = 0.0473
D I R E C T L Y A D J U S T E D ( S T A N D A R D I Z E D ) R A T E S
Subcategory Total
Number Population A Population B
of both ---- ------------------- ------------------------
Populations Rate Number of Rate Number of
Cases Cases
calves 450 0.2800
126 0.1400
63
yearlings 550 0.0800
44 0.0400
22
T o t a l 1000 0.1700
170 0.0850
85
D i r e c t l y a d j u s t e d rate of the first population = 0.1700
D i r e c t l y a d j u s t e d rate of the second population = 0.0850
Comparative index =
0.1700 / 0.0850 = 2.0000
The adjusted incidence rate of
the population A is superior over the population B adjusted rate by
100.0000 %
12.4-TWO POPULATIONS RATES'
COMPARISON ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STANDARDS (Ref.:
Martin et al.)
(indirect standardization based on standard category specific rates)
This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of
stratum-specific rates (investigation results)
in two populations (herds, flocks, groups, etc.) with the same categories (according to sex, age, breed,
etc.) but in different proportions influencing the comparison result.
INPUT DATA:
place, time ? Canada
(acc.Martin-p.90),1986
species, disease(s) ?
cattle,BVD
indicator/rate ? prevalence
average rate for standard
population ? 0.42
category(ies) ? age
population A, population B ?
A,B
number of observed cases in
population A, in population B ? 300,325
number of subcategories ? 5
List data - subcategory names, size of population A, population B, standard population rates :
1
subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 2-3.9 year,100,25,0.3
2
subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 4-5.9 year,200,100,0.4
3
subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 6-7.9 year,150,250,0.5
4
subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 8-8.9 year,75,150,0.6
5
subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 10+ year,50,100,0.7
RESULT:
SUMMARY TABLE
OF B A S I C I N P U T
D A T A
P o p u l a
t i o n A P o p u l a t i o n B
---------------------------- ------------------------------
Subcategory Number in
Proportion Number in Proportion
Standard
age Study Study Population
Rates
2-3.9 year 100 0.1739 25
0.0400
0.3000
4-5.9 year 200 0.3478 100 0.1600 0.4000
6-7.9 year 150 0.2609
250
0.4000
0.5000
8-8.9 year 75 0.1304
150 0.2400 0.6000
10+ year 50
0.0870 100
0.1600
0.7000
T o t a l 575
1.0000 625
1.0000
C a s e s 300 325
Crude rate 0.5217 0.5200 0.4200
The rate expected if the standard rates applied in population A = 0.4609
This leads to standardized cases ratio =
113.2075 %
The rate expected if the standard rates applied in population B = 0.5320
This leads to standardized cases ratio = 97.7444 %
Indirect adjusted rate for the
total population A = 0.4755
Indirect adjusted rate for the
total population B = 0.4105
Comparative index A/B =
0.4755 / 0.4105 = 115.8200
Comparative index B/A =
0.4105 / 0.4755 = 86.3409
The adjusted prevalence rate
of the population A is superior over the population B adjusted rate by 15.8200
%
12.5-SELECTION OF METHODS FOR
SPECIFIC DISEASE CONTROL PROGRAMME
Assessment of eligibility according to method impact ability -
effectivity, inputs availability in a given place/territory and period after
analyzing all substantial factors influencing
strategy/measures practicability and probability of success of
time-bounded programmes, using grading scales.
Programme o b j e c t i v e s :
disease eradication, elimination, reduction or containment; losses reduction; disease
free population increase, etc.
L e g i s l a t i o n : law, regulations, instructions, standards, etc.
D i a g n o s i s : ability of etiological diagnosis, laboratory
capacities, ability to detect all
outbreaks, to confirm disease free status, etc.
A n a l y s i s : obligatory reporting, data processing, active
screening, monitoring, surveillance,
disease situation analyses in place and time, etc.
M e a s u r e s : application of preventive and health restoration
measures at field and management levels,
logistic, extention, support, etc.
I n p u t a v a i l a b i l i t
y: manpower, funds, equipment, transport, premises, services, training, etc.
P r o b a b i l i t y : probability to achieve the objectives through the given method considering given conditions
and the weakest components.
INPUT DATA:
disease ? bovine tuberculosis
programme objectives ? elimination (reaching zero prevalence)
place, period ? Czech Republic,1959-1968
Number of methods (incl.
combinations) in consideration ? 3
Scales consist of g r a d e
s (0 to 10 !).
method No. 1 : method name: ?
test+slaughter
grades of availability
(considering programme objectives):
legislation,
diagnosis, analysis, measures
? 7,8,8,9
grades of inputs
availability, success probability
? 9,7
method No. 2 : method name: ?
simple isolation
grades of availability
(considering programme objectives):
legislation,
diagnosis, analysis, measures
? 8,8,6,10
grades of inputs
availability, success probability
? 9,1
method No. 3 : method name: ?
depopulation
grades of availability
(considering programme objectives):
legislation,
diagnosis, analysis, measures
? 8,8,6,10
grades of inputs
availability, success probability
? 1,10
Importance multiplier coefficients are prefixed:
legislation = 5
diagnosis = 7
analysis = 5
measures = 9
Do you accept these values (y) or you will use other ones (o)? o
Define values of importance
multiplier coefficients fitting better to the given programme objectives,
specific disease characteristics, situation and trend as well as to the conditions influencing the disease and
programme implementation:
legislation ? 8
diagnosis ? 9
analysis ? 7
measures ? 10
RESULT:
Method(s) Grades
of Availability Grades of
-------------------------------- --------------------
legis- diag-
analy- mea- input proba-
T O T A L
lation nosis
sis sures avai-
bility points
------------------------------------------------- labi- of
Multiplier * 8
* 9 *
7 *
10 lity
success
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
test+slaughter +
7 + 8 + 8 + 9
* 9 *
7 17262
simple isolatio +
8 +
8 +
6 + 10
* 9 *
1 2502
depopulation +
8 + 8 + 6
+ 10 * 1
* 10 2780
Method(s) Proportion Percentage
of the total 22544 allocated points
test+slaughter 0.7657 76.5703
simple isolatio 0.1110 11.0983
depopulation 0.1233 12.3314
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
EPIZOO, ver. 4.0, 02-21-2005
12.6-SURVEY RESPONSE RATE
(Ref.: Toma et al.)
INPUT DATA:
purpose of survey ? to investigate the occurrence of
scrapie
place, time ? Great Britain - farms with >
sheep,1998
survey conducted by: face-to-face inquiry (f), postal service (m), questionnaire (q), phone (p), postal service (m) or electronic mail
(e) ? m
number of individuals (units)
who would have been surveyed if all had
participated (survey sample) ? 11554
number of individuals (units)
who was reached for the survey ? 7090
number of completed or returned
survey instrument (questionnaire,
interview, etc.) ? 6362
RESULT:
Survey sample
rate = 0.6136
Response rate
of survey sample = 0.5506
Response rate
of surveyed = 0.8973
12.7-DILUTION OF SOLUTION FOR
DISINFECTION, DISINFESTATION, ETC.
Subprogramme calculates required volume of certain concentration of the
solutions for disinfection, disinfestation, treatment, etc.
INPUT DATA:
solution ? NaOH
purpose ?
disinfection in FMD outbreak
place, time ? Farm
S.,May 1998
required concentration in % ? 2.5
volume measure units ? liters
total volume of solution required ? 20000
original concentration in % (major than required concentration) ? 50
RESULT:
1000.00 liters of 50.00 % original solution must be diluted with 19000.00 liters of diluent to obtain required 20000.00 liters of
2.50 % solution
(See also subprogramme 10.8)
12.8-SUMMARY VALUE OF ANIMAL
PRODUCTS PER ONE VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates average summary value of products
(produced, traded or consumed) of animal origin per one veterinarian.
place, time ? world,2000
produced (p) or traded (t)
or consumed (c)? p
measure units ? MT
How many types of animal products
? 6
List: products, value in measure
units:
1
product, value ? beef/veal,56588394
2 product, value ? mutton/lamb,7611814
3 product, value ? pig meat,89610731
4 product, value ? poultry meat,44705717
5 product, value ? cow milk,489813622
6 product, value ? hen eggs,51269203
total number of veterinarians:
? 691370
number of government veterinarians
? 192020
number of private veterinarians
? 320346
RESULT:
Total: 739599481 MT
Average value per one veterinarian = 1069.7593 MT
Average value per one government veterinarian =
3851.6794 MT
Average value per one private veterinarian =
2308.7520 MT
12.9-VALUES OF INDIVIDUAL
ANIMAL PRODUCTS PER ONE VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates average individual values of products
(produced, traded, exported, imported or consumed) of animal origin per one
veterinarian.
place, time ? world,2000
produced (p) or traded (t) or
exported (e) or imported (i) or consumed (c) ? p
measure units ? MT
How many types of animal products
? 8
List: product, value in measure
units:
1 product, value ? Meat total,232572774
2 product, value ? Beef/veal,56588394
3 product, value ? Mutton/lamb,7611814
4 product, value ? Pig meat,89610731
5
product, value ? Poultry meat,44705717
6 product, value ? Cow milk,489813622
7 product, value ? Hen eggs,51269203
8 product, value ? Goat meat,3802747
Veterinarians: total (v) or government
(g) or private (r) or accredited (a) ? g
number ? 192020
RESULTS:
Produced product(s): Quantity: Average value per
one
veterinarian:
1 Meat total 232572774 MT 1211.1904 MT
2 Beef/veal
56588394 MT 294.7005 MT
3 Mutton/lamb
7611814 MT 39.6407 MT
4 Pig meat 89610731 MT 466.6739 MT
5 Poultry meat 44705717 MT 232.8180 MT
6 Cow milk 489813622 MT 2550.8469 MT
7 Hen eggs 51269203 MT 266.9993 MT
8 Goat meat 3802747 MT 19.8039 MT
12.10-ANIMAL COMMODITY
EXPORT/IMPORT SIZE PER ONE VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates average summary size of exported or
imported animal commodities per one
veterinarian.
place, time ? United Kingdom,1993
measure units ? dollars
export (e) or import (i)
? e
How many types of animal commodities
? 3
1 commodity, quantity (in measure units)? live
animals,407000000
2 commodity, quantity (in measure units)?
meat,1340000000
3 commodity, quantity (in measure units)?
dairy,902000000
total number of veterinarians
? 17744
number of government veterinarians ? 859
number of private veterinarians
? 8870
RESULT:
Commodity: Quantity:
1
live anim 407000000 dollars
2 meat 1340000000
dollars
3 dairy 902000000 dollars
Total:
2649000000 dollars
Average value per one veterinarian
=
149289.900812 dollars
Average value per one government veterinarian =
3083818.393481 dollars
Average value per one private veterinarian =
298647.125141 dollars
12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF
FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN
This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other
products) of animal origin per one person according to: 1) product
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? world,2000
total number of persons ?
6056710000
List data - names, units, quantity in measure units:
1 : product, measure units,
quantity ? meat total,kg,232572774000
2 : product, measure units,
quantity ? beef/veal,kg,56588394000
3 : product, measure units, quantity
? mutton/lamb,kg,7611814000
4 : product, measure units,
quantity ? goat meat,kg,3802747000
5 : product, measure units,
quantity ? pig meat,kg,89610731000
6 : product, measure units,
quantity ? poultry meat,kg,44705717000
7 : product, measure units,
quantity ? cow milk,kg,489813622000
8 : product, measure units,
quantity ? hen eggs,kg,51269203000
RESULT:
Product Measure Quantity Average
Units per Capita
meat total kg
232572774000 38.3992
beef/veal kg 56588394000 9.3431
mutton/lamb kg
7611814000 1.2568
goat meat kg 3802747000 0.6279
pig meat kg 89610731000 14.7953
poultry meat kg
44705717000 7.3812
cow milk kg
489813622000 80.8712
hen eggs kg 51269203000 8.4649
12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF
FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN
This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other
products) of animal origin per one person according to: 2) place
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech
republic,1985
product ? milk
product measure units ?
liters
List data - names; quantity in
measure units:
1 : place, persons, product
quantity ? C.Bohemia,1137086,711000000
2 : place, persons, product quantity
? S.Bohemia,695066,634000000
3 : place, persons, product quantity
? W.Bohemia,873239,522000000
4 : place, persons, product quantity
? N.Bohemia,1183145,315000000
5 : place, persons, product quantity
? E.Bohemia,1244452,884000000
6 : place, persons, product quantity
? S.Moravia,2058020,1007000000
7 : place, persons, product quantity
? N.Moravia,1958877,626000000
RESULT:
Place Persons Quantity
Average
Grand
T o t a l
of Product per Capita
Proportion %
C.Bohemia 1137086 711000000 625.2825 0.1513
15.1309
S.Bohemia 695066
634000000 912.1436 0.1349
13.4922
W.Bohemia 873239 522000000 597.7745 0.1111
11.1087
N.Bohemia 1183145
315000000 266.2396 0.0670 6.7036
E.Bohemia 1244452 884000000 710.3528 0.1881
18.8125
S.Moravia 2058020 1007000000 489.3053 0.2143
21.4301
N.Moravia 1958877
626000000 319.5709 0.1332 13.3220
T o t a l 9149885 4699000000 513.5584
1.0000 100.0000
12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF
FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN
This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other
products) of animal origin per one person according to: 3) time
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech
Republic,1989-1994
product ? meat total
product measure units ? kg
List data - quantity in measure units:
1 : subperiod, persons, product
quantity ? 1989,10375000,1288041000
2 : subperiod, persons, product
quantity ? 1990,10360000,1254606000
3 : subperiod, persons, product
quantity ? 1991,10345000,1116762000
4 : subperiod, persons, product
quantity ? 1992,10330000,1107039000
5 : subperiod, persons, product
quantity ? 1993,10296000,1015000000
6 : subperiod, persons, product
quantity ? 1994,10295000,875000000
RESULT:
Superiod Persons Quantity
Average Grand
T o t a l
of Product per Capita
Proportion %
1989 10375000 1288041000 124.1485 0.1935 19.3503
1990 10360000 1254606000 121.1010 0.1885 18.8480
1991 10345000 1116762000 107.9519 0.1678 16.7771
1992 10330000 1107039000 107.1674 0.1663 16.6311
1993 10296000 1015000000 98.5820
0.1525 15.2484
1994 10295000 875000000 84.9927 0.1315 13.1451
T o t a l 62001000 6656448000 107.3603 1.0000
100.0000
12.12-SELECTION OF PRIORITY
DISEASES FOR CONTROL PROGRAMME
Rough priority selection of the most important diseases for the control programmes considering all
substantial factors influencing
strategy/measures practicability, inputs availability and probability of
success.
Explanatory notes:
I m p o r t a n c e: economic, public health, social, ecological, etc.
D i a g n o s i s : ability of etiological diagnosis, laboratory
capacities, ability to detect all
outbreaks, to confirm disease free status, etc.
A n a l y s i s : obligatory reporting, data processing, active
screening, monitoring, surveillance,
disease situation analyses in place and time, etc.
M e a s u r e s : application of preventive and health restoration
measures at field and management levels,
logistic, extention, legislation support (law, regulations, instructions, standards),
public support, etc.
I n p u t a v a i l a b i l i t
y: manpower, funds, equipment, transport, premises, services, training, etc.
P r o b a b i l i t y : probability to achieve the objectives through selected method(s) considering given
conditions and the weakest components.
INPUT DATA:
place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1965
Number of diseases in
consideration ? 3
Scales consist of g r a d e
s (0 to 10 !).
disease No. 1 : name: ? bovine
tuberculosis
importance grade, grades of
availability of necessary diagnosis,
analysis, measures ? 9,9,8,7
grades of inputs
availability, success probability
? 9,8
disease No. 2 : name: ? bovine
brucellosis
importance grade, grades of
availability of necessary diagnosis,
analysis, measures ? 9,10,8,7
grades of inputs
availability, success probability
? 10,8
disease No. 3 : name: ? bovine
leukosis
importance grade, grades of
availability of necessary diagnosis,
analysis, measures ? 5,5,6,7
grades of inputs
availability, success probability
? 4,5
Importance multiplier coefficients are prefixed:
importance = 5
diagnosis = 8
analysis = 5
measures = 9
Do you accept these values (y) or you will use other ones (o)? o
Define values (1 up to 10 !) of importance multiplier coefficients fitting
better to the given programme objectives, specific disease characteristics,
situation and trend as well as to the
conditions influencing the disease and programme implementation:
importance ? 8
diagnosis ? 9
analysis ? 6
measures ? 9
RESULT:
Disease Impor-
Grades of Availability Grades of
tance ------------------------------ ---------------
grade diag- analy-
mea- input proba- T O T
A L
nosis sis sures avai-
bility points
------------------------------------------------------------ labi-
of
Multiplier * 8 *
9 *
6 * 9 lity success
------------------------------------------------------------------------
bovine tuberculosis + 9
+ 9 + 8 + 7
* 9 *
8 19008
bovine brucellosis +
9 + 10 + 8 + 7
* 10 *
8 21840
bovine leukosis + 5
+ 5 +
6 + 7
* 4 *
5 3680
Disease Proportion Percentage
of the total 44528 allocated points
bovine tuberculosis 0.4269 42.6877
bovine brucellosis 0.4905 49.0478
bovine leukosis 0.0826
8.2645
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
12.13-TRUE PREVALENCE
ESTIMATION BASED ON DIAGNOSTIC METHOD DETECTABILITY
This subprogramme evaluates the results of animal population
investigation applying diagnostic method detectability value for the estimation
of true prevalence rate from apparent prevalence, i.e. based on positive
results.
INPUT DATA:
species, disease ?
cattle,tuberculosis
place,time ?
Czechoslovakia,1960
test ? allergical
apparent prevalence - proportion of animals with positive test ?
0.23
test detectability rate ? 0.95
RESULT:
Estimated true prevalence
rate among tested animals = 0.242105
= 24.2105 %
13-ANNEX I - SELECTED BASIC STATISTICAL
METHODS
================================================
1-Arithmetic mean and measures of
dispersion
2-Arithmetic mean from grouped data
and measures of dispersion
3-Calculation of proportion and its
standard error
4-Conversion between
percentage/proportion and absolute data
5-Distribution of cumulative
frequencies
6-Chi-square test and contingency
tables
7-McNemar's test - paired chi-square test
8-Linear regression and correlation
coefficient
9-Fisher's test for small frequencies'
comparison
10-Moving averages - smoothing of time
series
11-Simple arithmetic operations
13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates:
1) arithmetic and geometric mean
INPUT DATA:
List data:
1 : variable value ? 84
2 : variable value ? 91
3 : variable value ? 72
4 : variable value ? 68
5 : variable value ? 89
6 : variable value ? 78
RESULT:
Sum of variable
values = 482.0000
Arithmetic mean =
80.3333
Geometric mean = 79.8806
13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates:
2) weighted arithmetic mean
INPUT DATA:
List data:
1 : variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 3,82
2 : variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 5,86
3 : variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 3,90
4 : variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 1,70
RESULT:
Sum of variables = 12.0000
Sum of variables x
weighted factors = 1016.0000
Weighted arithmetic
mean = 84.6667
13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates: 3)
arithmetic mean and measures of
dispersion
INITIAL DATA
List data:
1 : variable value ? 12
2 : variable value ? 6
3 : variable value ? 7
4 : variable value ? 3
5 : variable value ? 15
6 : variable value ? 10
7 : variable value ? 18
8 : variable value ? 5
RESULT:
Sum of variable values = 76.0000
Arithmetic mean = 9.5000
Mean deviation (average
deviation) = +-
4.2500
Variance (square of the
standard deviation) = 23.750
Standard deviation (root mean square of deviation from the
mean) = +-
4.873
Coefficient of
variation (coefficient of dispersion;
standard deviation/mean) = 51.30 %
Range (from
3 to 18
) = 15
13.2-ARITHMETIC MEAN FROM
GROUPED DATA AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION (Ref.:
Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates: 1) simple
arithmetic mean from grouped data
INPUT DATA:
List data:
1 : variable value,
frequency ? 61,5
2 : variable value,
frequency ? 64,18
3 : variable value,
frequency ? 67,42
4 : variable value,
frequency ? 70,27
5 : variable value,
frequency ? 73,8
RESULT:
Sum of variable
values = 335.0000
Sum of frequencies = 100.0000
Sum of variables x
frequencies = 6745.0000
Arithmetic mean from
grouped data = 67.4500
13.2-ARITHMETIC MEAN FROM
GROUPED DATA AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION (Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates: 2)
arithmetic mean from grouped data and
measures of dispersion
INPUT DATA:
List data:
1 : variable value, frequency ? 61,5
2 : variable value, frequency ? 64,18
3 : variable value, frequency ? 67,42
4 : variable value, frequency ? 70,27
5 : variable value, frequency ? 73,8
RESULT:
Arithmetic mean = 67.450
Mean deviation (average deviation) = +- 2.265
Variance (square of the
standard deviation) = 8.528
Standard deviation (root mean square of deviation from the
mean) = +- 2.920
Coefficient of
variation (coefficient of
dispersion; standard
deviation/mean) = 4.33 %
13.3-CALCULATIONS OF
PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR
(Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates
1) simple proportion
INPUT DATA:
Do you want to calculate data
of individual variables with and without
a given characteristic (i) or simple relation between total number of
observations and the number of variables of a given
characteristic (r) ? r
total number of
observations
? 850
number of variables with a
given evaluated characteristic ? 62
RESULT:
Proportion =
0.0729 = 7.2941 %
13.3-CALCULATIONS OF
PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR (Ref.: Putt et
al.)
This subprogramme calculates 2) proportion standard error of a sample
INPUT DATA:
number of representative
observations (random sample size) ? 2515
Do you want to calculate the
standard error of proportion (s) or of percentage (p) ? s
proportion of variables of a
given characteristic ? 0.133
RESULT:
Standard error of
proportion = +- 0.0068
13.3-CALCULATIONS OF
PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR
(Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates 2) proportion standard error of a sample
INPUT DATA:
number of representative
observations (random sample size) ? 2515
Do you want to calculate the
standard error of proportion (s) or of percentage (p) ? p
percentage of variables of a given
characteristic ? 13.3
RESULT:
Standard error of
percentage = +- 0.6771
%
13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN
PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA
This subprogramme calculates: 1)
percentage and proportion from absolute
data
INPUT DATA:
total number of basic units
(observations) - sample size ? 1120
number of partial absolute
data for conversion into percentage or
proportion ? 5
List data:
1 : X = ? 1
2 : X = ? 20
3 : X = ? 321
4 : X = ? 5432
5 : X = ? 49800
RESULT:
Order Partial Proportion Percentage
number (X)
1 1 0.0009 0.0893
2 20 0.0179 1.7857
3 321 0.2866
28.6607
4 5432 4.8500 485.0000
5 49800 44.4643
4446.4286
13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN
PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA
This subprogramme calculates:
2) absolute data from percentage
or proportion
INPUT DATA:
total number of basic units
(observations) - sample size ? 1234
number of data on percentage
or proportion for conversion into
absolute values ? 5
Do you want the conversion from percentages (p) or from proportions
(r) ? p
List data (in %):
1 : X = ? 0.9
2 : X = ? 11
3 : X = ? 98
4 : X = ? 789
5 : X = ? 9870
RESULTS:
Order Percentage (X) Absolute Value
1 0.9000 11.1060
2 11.0000 135.7400
3 98.0000 1209.3200
4 789.0000 9736.2600
5 9870.0000 121795.8000
13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN
PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA
This subprogramme calculates:
2) absolute data from percentage
or proportion
INPUT DATA:
total number of basic units
(observations) - sample size ? 65432
number of data on percentage or proportion for conversion into absolute values ? 5
Do you want the conversion
from percentages (p) or from proportions
(r) ? r
List data:
1 : X = ? 0.64
2 : X = ? 0.0134
3 : X = ? 0.78
4 : X = ? 0.0245
5 : X = ? 0.99
RESULT:
Order Proportion (X) Absolute Value
1 0.6400 41876.4791
2 0.0134 876.7888
3 0.7800 51036.9581
4 0.0245 1603.0840
5 0.9900 64777.6806
13.5-DISTRIBUTION OF
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCIES
INPUT DATA:
data type ? serological
investigations of cattle on leucosis in Czech Republic during 1986-1992
List data
1 : class/category,
frequency ? 1986,1480887
2 : class/category,
frequency ? 1987,1655773
3 : class/category,
frequency ? 1988,1617698
4 : class/category,
frequency ? 1989,1529969
5 : class/category,
frequency ? 1990,1248097
6 : class/category,
frequency ? 1991,920931
7 : class/category,
frequency ? 1992,1072737
RESULT:
Order Class/category Frequency Cumulative Percentage
Frequency
of Total Cumulative
Frequency
1 1986 1480887.00
1480887.00 15.55
2 1987 1655773.00
3136660.00 32.93
3 1988 1617698.00 4754358.00 49.91
4 1989 1529969.00 6284327.00 65.97
5 1990 1248097.00
7532424.00 79.07
6 1991 920931.00
8453355.00 88.74
7 1992 1072737.00 9526092.00 100.00
13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND
CONTINGENCY TABLES
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates :
1) chi-square test
INPUT DATA:
is the expected frequency
constant, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
constant expected
frequency ?
20
Key observed frequency, one
by one:
1 :
? 25
2 : ? 17
3 : ? 15
4 : ? 23
5 : ? 24
6 : ? 16
RESULT:
Chi-square = 5.0000
with 5 degrees of freedom
Chi-square after Yates'
correction = 3.8750
Critical value at the 0.05
significance level = 11.0710
The hypothesis zero is not
rejected at 0.05 significance level.
3.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND
CONTINGENCY TABLES (Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates :
2) frequency test - contingency
table 2x2
INPUT DATA:
value of first group of
first class - a ? 20
value of first group of second
class - b ? 15
value of second group of
first class - c ? 80
value of second group of
second class - d ? 85
RESULT:
Chi-square = 0.8658 with degree of freedom = 1
Chi-square after Yates'
correction = 0.5541
Coefficient of
contingency = 0.0657
Difference is not of
statistical significance.
13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND CONTINGENCY
TABLES
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates :
3) frequency test - contingency
table 2x3
INPUT DATA: (Individual values
to be major than 5 !)
value of first group of
first class - a1 ? 50
value of first group of
second class - a2 ? 47
value of first group of
third class - a3 ? 56
value of second group of
first class - b1 ? 5
value of second group of second
class - b2 ? 14
value of second group of
third class - b3 ? 8
RESULT:
Chi-square value =
4.8444
with degrees of freedom = 2
Difference is of statistical
significance at 10% level (error probability) only.
13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND
CONTINGENCY TABLES
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates : 4) frequency test - contingency table 2xN
INPUT DATA:
Key pairs of observed values, expected values:
1 pair: ? 17,25
2 pair: ? 31,25
3 pair: ? 29,25
4 pair: ? 18,25
5 pair: ? 14,25
6 pair: ? 20,25
7 pair: ? 35,25
8 pair: ? 30,25
9 pair: ? 20,25
10 pair: ? 36,25
RESULT:
Chi-square value = 23.2800
Chi-square value after
Yates' correcture = 20.5000
Degrees of freedom = 9
Statistical significance level of the difference between observed
and expected distribution
see in following chi-square table.
13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND
CONTINGENCY TABLES
(Ref.: Spiegel)
TABLE OF CRITICAL VALUES FOR
CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION
Degree of Critical
Values of chi-square
Freedom at Level
of
10% 5% 1%
-----------------------------------------------------
1 2.71 3.84 6.63
2
4.61 5.99 9.21
3 6.25 7.81 11.3
4 7.78 9.49 13.3
5 9.24 11.1 15.1
6 10.6
12.6 16.8
7 12.0 14.1 18.5
8 13.4 15.5 20.1
9 14.7 16.9 21.7
10 16.0 18.3 23.2
15 22.3 25.0 30.6
20 28.4 31.4 37.6
30 40.3 43.8 50.9
40 51.8 55.8 63.7
60 74.4 79.1 88.4
13.7-McNEMAR'S TEST - PAIRED
CHI-SQUARE TEST
(Ref.: Navarro)
INPUT DATA:
problem ? B. abortus serology
cases, controls ? agglut.,CFT
factor to be tested ? diag.res.
enter the number of pairs in
each category:
CONTROLS
+
diag.res. - diag.res.
|--------------|--------------|
+ diag.res. | 38 |
29 |
67
CASES
|--------------|--------------|
- diag.res. |
21 |
1749 | 1770
|--------------|--------------|
59 1778 1837
RESULT:
McNemar's test value
= 0.980000
(P > 0.05)
The difference is
statistically not significant.
13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION AND
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
(Ref.: Spiegel)
(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)
This subprogramme calculates:
1) linear regression incl.
correlation coefficient (using least
squares regression line)
INPUT DATA:
Number of points (pairs) >0 to be processed ? 8
1 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 1,1
2 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 3,2
3 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 4,4
4 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 6,4
5 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 8,5
6 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 9,7
7 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 11,8
8 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 14,9
RESULT:
The equation of the
regression line of Y on X: Y
= 0.55 +
0.64 X
Correlation coefficient r
= 0.9770
Determination coefficient r^2
= 0.9545
The equation of the
regression line of X on Y: X
= -0.50 +
1.50 Y
Do you want to calculate
(interpolate) individual values of the
regression line Y=A+BX, yes(y) or
no(n) ? y
Do you want to calculate the
value of 'X'(x) for a given 'Y' or
viceversa the value of 'Y'(y) for a given 'X' ? x Key value Y ? 3
X
= 3.86
Do you want to calculate (interpolate)
other individual values of the regression line Y=A+BX, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
Do you want to calculate the
value of 'X'(x) for a given 'Y' or
viceversa the value of 'Y'(y) for a given 'X' ? y Key value X ? 12
Y
= 8.18
13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION AND
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
(Ref.: Spiegel)
(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)
This subprogramme calculates:
2) simple linear correlation
coefficient
INPUT DATA:
1 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 1,1
2 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 3,2
3 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 4,4
4 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 6,4
5 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 8,5
6 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 9,7
7 pair:
X (independent), Y (dependent) ?
11,8
8 pair: X (independent), Y (dependent) ? 14,9
RESULT:
Linear correlation
coefficient - r = 0.9770
Determination
coefficient - r^2 =
0.9545
13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION AND
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
(Ref.: Spiegel)
(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)
This subprogramme calculates:
3) coefficient of rank
correlation
Note: Rank correlation can
be used instead of using precise values
of the variables, or when such precision is unavailable.
INPUT DATA:
Data must be ranked in order of size, importance, etc. !
1 pair: rank number of
variables X,Y ? 4,7.5
2 pair: rank number of
variables X,Y ? 2,3.5
3 pair: rank number of
variables X,Y ? 6.5,7.5
4 pair: rank number of
variables X,Y ? 3,1.5
5 pair: rank number of
variables X,Y ? 8.5,10
6 pair: rank number of
variables X,Y ? 1,3.5
RESULT:
Coefficient of rank
correlation = 0.2500
13.9-FISHER'S TEST FOR SMALL
FREQUENCIES' COMPARISON (Ref.: Navarro)
This subprogramme calculates the comparison test when some values are
minor than 5 and number of total cases is minor than 60 !
INPUT DATA:
problem ? Fiction
variable 'X' ? disease X.
variable 'Y' ? non-disease X.
Variable 'Y'
+ -
|--------------|--------------|
+ |
1 | 19 |
20
Variable 'X' |--------------|--------------|
- |
7 | 3
| 10
|--------------|--------------|
8
22 30
RESULT:
Fisher's test value =
0.000418
(P < 0.01)
The difference is
statistically highly significant.
13.10-MOVING AVERAGES -
SMOOTHING OF TIME SERIES
(Ref.: Spiegel)
This subprogramme calculates moving averages of order 3 reducing unwanted
fluctuation and extreme values - smoothing of time series.
INPUT DATA:
total period ? 1959-1967
variables ? number of
postmortem findings of cow tuberculosis
number of variables ? 9
List data - name of time/period, variable value:
1 : ? 1959,88494
2 : ? 1960,108638
3 : ? 1961,117721
4 : ? 1962,144495
5 : ? 1963,154994
6 : ? 1964,119928
7 : ? 1965,116151
8 : ? 1966,89279
9 : ? 1967,59557
RESULTS:
T A B L E OF M
O V I N G A V E R A G E S
Order Time/
Variable Moving average
period value
1 1959
88494
2 1960
108638 104951.00
3 1961 117721 123618.00
4 1962 144495 139070.00
5 1963 154994 139805.67
6 1964 119928 130357.67
7
1965 116151 108452.67
8 1966
89279
88329.00
9 1967 59557
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
OPERATIONS 1) Additions
INPUT DATA:
Key individual numbers:
1 . number: ? 265789
2 . number: ? 786543
3 . number: ? 9876
4 . number: ? 9086
5 . number: ? 234
RESULT:
S u m =
1071528
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
OPERATIONS 2) Subtraction
INPUT DATA:
basic number ? 2567
Key individual numbers:
1 . number: ? 456
2 . number: ? 78
3 . number: ? 987
4 . number: ? 23
5 . number: ? 9
RESULT:
R e s t =
1014
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
OPERATIONS 3) Multiplication
INPUT DATA:
basic multiplier number ? 342
Key individual numbers to be
multiplied:
1 . number: ? 543
2 . number: ? 78
3 . number: ? 6
4 . number: ? 45
5 . number: ? 98
RESULT:
1 . number 543
x 342 =
185706
2 . number 78
x 342 =
26676
3 . number 6
x 342 =
2052
4 . number 45
x 342 =
15390
5 . number 98
x 342 =
33516
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
OPERATIONS 4) Division
INPUT DATA:
basic dividing number ? 43
Key individual numbers:
1 . number: ? 6785
2 . number: ? 89765
3 . number: ? 3452
4 . number: ? 890
5 . number: ? 65
RESULT:
1 . number 6785
/ 43 = 157.7906976744
2 . number 89765
/ 43 = 2087.5581395349
3 . number 3452
/ 43 = 80.2790697674
4 . number 890
/ 43 = 20.6976744186
5 . number 65
/ 43 = 1.5116279070
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
OPERATIONS 5)
Exponentiation
INPUT DATA:
exponent number ? 2
Key individual numbers:
1 . number:
? 342
2 . number: ? 56
3 . number: ? 12
4 . number: ? 9
5 . number: ? 65
RESULT:
1 . number 342
^ 2 =
116964
2 . number 56
^ 2 =
3136
3 . number 12
^ 2 = 144
4 . number 9
^ 2 = 81
5 . number 65
^ 2 = 4225
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS 6) Extraction of roots
INPUT DATA:
Key individual numbers:
1 . number: ? 2456
2 . number: ? 765
3 . number: ? 89
4 . number: ? 675
5 . number: ? 32
RESULT:
1 . number 2456
square root value =
49.558047
2 . number 765
square root value =
27.658633
3 . number 89
square root value =
9.433981
4 . number 675
square root value =
25.980762
5 . number 32
square root value =
5.656854
14-ANNEX II - OTHER SELECTED
STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC METHODS
================================================================
1-Test of the difference between two
proportions
2-Test of the difference between two
arithmetic means
3-Test of the difference in means of
two small-sized samples
4-Test of matched comparison between
different values in pairs
5-Confidence intervals estimates for
population mean
6-Confidence intervals estimates for
population proportion
7-Confidence intervals for the
difference between means
8-Confidence intervals for the
difference between proportions
9-Table of Student's 't' critical
values
10-Veterinary service cost and animal
population/production values
11-Conversion between metric and
Anglo-Saxon measures
12-Analysis of critical point of
production economic efficiency
13-Application of interest, discount
and inflation rate
14-Conversion between national
currencies' values
15-Model of budget for animal health
programme - I
16-Model of budget for animal health
programme - II
14.1-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TWO PROPORTIONS (sample proportions obtained in large
samples) (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
Do you know which population has
major proportion, yes(y) or no(n) ?
y
number of animals of the
population with m a j o r proportion ? 300
number of animals of the
population with m i n o r proportion ? 300
absolute (a) or relative - proportion( r) or percentage (p) numbers
to be used ? a
first population: number of
animals of a given characteristic ? 225
second population: number of
animals of a given characteristic ? 195
RESULT:
Difference between
proportions of two populations =
0.1000
Value of statistical test 'z'
= 2.6726
We can reject null hypothesis
at the 0.01 level of significance,
i.e. we can conclude that the difference is with a 0.01 probability of being wrong.
14.1-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TWO PROPORTIONS (sample proportions
obtained in large samples) (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
Do you know which population has
major proportion, yes(y) or no(n) ?
n
number of animals of the first
population ? 100
number of animals of the second
population ? 100
absolute (a) or relative -
proportion( r) or percentage (p) numbers to be used ? p
first population: % of animals
of a given characteristic ? 75
second population: % of animals
of a given characteristic ? 65
RESULT:
Difference between
proportions of two populations =
0.1000
Value of statistical test 'z' = 1.5430
The difference has not
statistical significance.
14.2-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TWO ARITHMETIC MEANS (sample means
obtained in large samples) (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
number of variables of population with
m a j o r arithmetic mean ? 36
number of variables of population with
m i n o r arithmetic mean ? 32
arithmetic mean of the
first population ? 75
arithmetic mean of the
second population ? 72
standard deviation
of the first population ? 6
standard deviation
of the second population ? 8
RESULT:
Difference between two
arithmetic means = 3.0000
Standard deviation of the difference in
means = 1.7033
Statistical test 'z' = 1.7613
Do you want to demonstrate if
one mean is major than another
(one-sided test) - (o) or if one
mean is major or minor than the other one
(two-sided test) - (t) ? t
We can reject null hypothesis
at the 0.1 level of significance only,
i.e. we can conclude that the difference is with a 0.1 probability of being wrong.
14.2-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TWO ARITHMETIC MEANS (sample
means obtained in large samples) (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
number of variables of population with
m a j o r arithmetic mean ? 50
number of variables of population with
m i n o r arithmetic mean ? 40
arithmetic mean of the
first population ? 78
arithmetic mean of the
second population ? 74
standard deviation
of the first population ? 7
standard deviation
of the second population ? 8
RESULT:
Difference between two
arithmetic means = 4.0000
Standard deviation of the
difference in means = 1.5824
Statistical test 'z' = 2.5277
Do you want to demonstrate if
one mean is major than another (one-sided test) - (o) or if one mean is major or minor than the other
one (two-sided test) - (t) ? o
We can reject null hypothesis
at the 0.01 level of significance,
i.e. we can conclude that the difference is with a 0.01 probability of being wrong.
14.3-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE IN
MEANS OF TWO SMALL-SIZED SAMPLES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
(There must be at least five cases in both samples for the test to be
valid !)
INPUT DATA:
number of animals of the first sample with m a j o r
mean ? 6
number of animals of the second sample with m i n o r
mean ? 32
arithmetic mean of the first sample ? 75
arithmetic mean of
the second sample ? 72
standard
deviation of the first sample ? 6
standar
deviation of the second sample ? 8
RESULT:
Difference in two means = 3.0000
Standard deviation of the
difference in the means = 3.4492
Statistical test 't' of the
difference = 0.8698 Degrees of freedom = 36
See the level of statistical
significance in the table of critical
values of Student's 't' in 14.9.
14.4-TEST OF MATCHED
COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT VALUES IN PAIRS (Ref.: Putt et al.)
INPUT DATA:
total number of matched pairs of
d i f f e r e n t values ? 9
Listf data - variables X,Y :
1 pair: ? 132,136
2 pair: ? 160,130
3 pair: ? 145,128
4 pair: ? 132,132
5 pair: ? 140,130
6 pair: ? 154,125
7 pair: ? 136,125
8 pair: ? 134,136
9 pair: ? 132,120
RESULT:
Sample mean of the differences = 11.4444
Sample standard deviation of
the diferences = 11.7200
Statistical test `t` = 2.93 Degrees of freedom = 8
See the level of statistical
significance in the table of critical
values of Student's 't' in 14.9
14.5-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION MEAN (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
s a m p l e size ? 100
estimate of the true
population mean ? 67.45
estimate of the true standard
deviation ? 2.93
Is the sample of a population
whith known total number of animals,
yes(y) or no(n) ? n
RESULT:
Estimates of the confidence
intervals for population mean lie at:
90 % confidence between 66.9680 and
67.9320
95 % confidence between 66.8757 and
68.0243
99 % confidence between 66.6941 and
68.2059
( The 95% confidence
limits = 67.4500 +-
0.5743 )
14.5-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION MEAN (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
s a m p l e size ? 50
estimate of the true
population mean ? 75
estimate of the true standard
deviation ? 10
Is the sample of a population
whith known total number of animals, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
t o t a l size
of the animal population ?
200
RESULT:
Estimates of the confidence
intervals for population mean lie at:
90 % confidence between 72.9802 and
77.0198
95 % confidence between 72.5935 and
77.4065
99 % confidence between 71.8322 and
78.1678
( The 95% confidence
limits = 75.0000 +-
2.4065 )
14.6-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION PROPORTIONS (Ref.:
Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
s a m p l e size ?
100
estimate of the true
population p r o p o r t i o n ? 0.55
Is the sample of a population
with known total number of animals, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
t o t a l
size of the animal population ? 900
RESULT:
Estimates of the confidence
intervals for true proportion lie at:
90 % confidence
between 0.5462 and
0.5538
95 % confidence
between 0.5454
and 0.5546
99 % confidence
between 0.5440 and
0.5560
( The 95% confidence
limits = 0.5500 +-
0.0046 )
14.6-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION PROPORTIONS (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
s a m p l e size ?
40
estimate of the true
population p r o p o r t i o n ? 0.6
Is the sample of a population
with known total number of animals,
yes(y) or no(n) ? n
RESULT:
Estimates of the confidence
intervals for true proportion lie at:
90 % confidence
between 0.4726 and
0.7274
95 % confidence between 0.4482 and
0.7518
99 % confidence
between 0.4002 and
0.7998
( The 95% confidence
limits = 0.6000 +-
0.1518 )
14.7-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO POPULATION MEANS (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
size of the first sample
(with m a j o r mean !)
? 50
size of the second sample
(with m i n o r mean !)
? 100
arithmetic mean of
the first sample ? 7.82
arithmetic mean of
the second sample ? 6.75
standard
deviation of the first sample ? 0.24
standard
deviation of the second sample ? 0.3
RESULT:
Difference between means = 1.0700
Estimates of the confidence
intervals for the true difference
between two population means lie at:
90 % confidence between 0.9955 and
1.1445
95 % confidence between 0.9812 and
1.1588
99 % confidence between 0.9531 and
1.1869
( The 95% confidence
limits = 1.0700 +-
0.0888 )
14.8-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPORTIONS (Ref.: Spiegel)
INPUT DATA:
size of the first sample (with
proportion of m a j o r value !)
? 600
size of the second sample (with
proportion of m i n o r value !) ? 400
proportions
in the
first sample (population) ? 0.5
in the
second sample (population) ? 0.25
RESULT:
Difference between the
proportions = 0.2500
Estimates of the confidence
intervals for true difference between
two population proportions lie at:
90 % confidence between 0.2011
and 0.2989
95 % confidence
between 0.1917 and
0.3083
99 % confidence between 0.1732
and 0.3268
( The 95% confidence
limits = 0.2500
+- 0.0583 )
14.9-TABLE OF CRITICAL VALUES
FOR S T U D E N T'S 't'
DISTRIBUTION
Degree of One-sided
Test Two-sided Test
Freedom
------------------------- ----------------------------
5% 1% 0.1% 5%
1% 0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 6.31 31.8
318 12.7
63.7 637
2 2.92 6.96
22.3 4.30 9.92
31.61
3 2.35 4.54
10.2 3.18 5.84
12.88
4 2.13 3.75
7.17 2.78 4.60
8.61
5 2.02 3.36
5.89 2.57 4.03
6.87
6 1.94 3.14
5.21 2.45 3.71
5.96
7 1.89 3.00
4.79 2.36 3.50
5.41
8 1.86 2.90
4.50 2.31 3.36
5.04
9 1.83 2.81
4.30 2.26 3.25
4.78
10 1.81 2.76
4.14 2.23 3.17
4.59
15 1.75 2.60
3.73 2.13 2.95
4.07
20 1.72 2.53
3.55 2.09 2.85
3.85
30 1.70 2.46
3.39 2.04 2.75
3.65
40 1.68 2.42
3.31 2.02 2.70
3.55
60 1.67 2.39
2.00 2.66
120 1.66
2.36 1.98
2.62
>120 1.65
2.33 1.96
2.58
14.10-VETERINARY SERVICE COST
AND ANIMAL POPULATION/PRODUCTION VALUES
This subprogramme calculates the ratios of veterinary service cost to values
of animal populations and their production which health protection and
wholesomeness the service is jointly responsible for.
INPUT DATA:
place/territory ? Czech
Republic
period ? 1988
veterinary service (type) ? government
monetary units ?
million Kcs
veterinary service total cost ? 688
veterinary service net cost (total minus income) ? 253
value of domestic animal populations ? 50000
value of animal production ? 46611
market value of animal production ? 40000
RESULT:
Ratio service
cost/population value = 0.013760
= 1 : 72.674419
Ratio service
cost/production value = 0.014760 = 1
: 67.748547
Ratio service
cost/production market value = 0.017200
= 1 : 58.139535
Ratio service
cost/production+population values = 0.007121
= 1 : 140.422965
Ratio service net
cost/population value = 0.005060
= 1 : 197.628458
Ratio service net
cost/production value = 0.005428
= 1 : 184.233202
Ratio service net cost/production
market value = 0.006325
= 1 : 158.102767
Ratio service net
cost/production+population values =
0.002619 = 1 :
381.861660
14.11-CONVERSION BETWEEN
METRIC AND ANGLO-SAXON MEASURES
MENU: (for reverse conversion key the number in
negative form, i.e. with the sign of
minus: '- ' ).
1-inches in
centimetres
2-feet in metres
3-yards in metres
4-miles in
kilometres
5-British pints in litres
6-British gallons in
litres
7-American gallons
in litres
8-American bushels
in litres
9-ounces in grammes
10-pounds in
kilogrammes
11-Fahrenheit grades
in Celsius grades
Select menu number of the
measure to be converted: -11
Value (X) of the measure to
be converted ? 37
RESULT:
37.0000 Celsius grades =
98.6000 Fahrenheit grades
14.12-ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL
POINT OF PRODUCTION ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
(break-even analysis; applicable also for service economic efficiency)
Given f o u r
of the following variables:
fixed costs, sale price per unit, variable cost per unit, number of units sold and gross profit, this subprogramme evaluates the remaining
variable. To calculate the b r e a k - e v e n values,
let the gross profit equal zero (= 0).
INPUT DATA:
production unit ? drug
against fasciolosis
monetary units ? pesos
S k i p indicator to be calculated; the other four data must be available !
gross profit
(benefit) ?
number of units
sold ? 1920
price of unit ? 13
total fixed costs ? 12000
variable cost per
unit ? 6.75
RESULT:
Gross profit
(benefit) = 0
14.12-ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL
POINT OF PRODUCTION ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
(break-even analysis; applicable also for service economic efficiency)
Given f o u r
of the following variables: fixed
costs, sale price per unit, variable cost per unit, number of units sold and gross profit, this subprogramme evaluates the remaining
variable. To calculate the b r e a k - e v e n values, let the gross profit equal zero (= 0).
INPUT DATA:
production unit ? drug
against fasciolosis
monetary units ? pesos
S k i p indicator to be calculated; the other four data must be available !
gross profit
(benefit) ? 0
number of units
sold ? 1920
price of unit ?
total fixed costs ? 12000
variable cost per
unit ? 6.75
RESULT:
Price of unit =
13.00
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates: 1) Changed values applying compound annual
interest rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units ? dollars
initial value (of
present - base year 0) ? 100
value of annual interest
rate (>0-<1 !) ? 0.1
number of years ? 5
RESULT:
F u
t u r e V a l u e s
End of year Amount
1 110.00
2 121.00
3 133.10
4 146.41
5 161.05
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
2) Changed values applying annual
discount rate
INPUT DATA
monetary units ? dollars
value to be
discounted ? 10000
value of annual discount
rate (>0-<1 !) ? 0.1
number of years ? 10
RESULT:
D i s c o u n t e d v a l u e s
End of year Discount Amount
factor
1 0.9091 9090.91
2 0.8264 8264.46
3 0.7513 7513.15
4 0.6830 6830.13
5 0.6209 6209.21
6 0.5645 5644.74
7 0.5132 5131.58
8 0.4665 4665.07
9 0.4241 4240.98
10 0.3855 3855.43
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
3) Annual interest rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units ? dollars
initial value (of
present - base year 0) ? 3897136
value of the future year
(value must be major than that of the
present year) ? 5350071
number of years between
the present and future values ? 10
RESULT:
TO achieve from the
initial value of 3897136.00 dollars
during 10 years the future value of
5350071.00 dollars
there is a need for annual
interest rate of 0.0322
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
4) Number of years to reach a
given value
INPUT DATA:
monetary units ? dollars
initial value (of
present - base year 0) ? 3897136
final value (of a given
future year) ? 5350071
value of annual interest
rate (>0-<1 !) ? 0.0322
RESULT:
To reach from the initial
(present) value of 3897136.00 dollars
the future value of 5350071.00 dollars when applying annual interest rate of 0.032
then necessary
number of years = 10.00
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE (Ref.:
Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
5) Inflation index
INPUT DATA:
product (service), measure
units, quantity ? milk,liters,12500
monetary units ? dollars
base year ? 1980
determinate year ? 1990
S k i p indicator to be calculated! All other three
data must be available:
average price in the
base year ? 1.2
average price in the
determinate year ? 1.7
cost of a given quantity
of product(service) in the base
year ? 15000
cost of the same quantity
of the product(service) in the
determinate year ?
RESULT:
Cost in the determinate
year = 21250
dollars
Inflation index between the
year 1980 and the year 1990 = 41.6667
i.e. average annual change to base year value =
4.1667 %
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE (Ref.:
Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
6) Changed values applying annual
inflation rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units ? dollars
initial value (of base
year 0) ? 1000
value of annual
inflation r a t e (>0-<1 !) ? 0.1
number of years ? 10
RESULT:
End of Amount = Initial Reduced Future
Year Value Values
1 1100.00 909.09
2 1210.00 826.45
3 1331.00 751.31
4 1464.10 683.01
5 1610.51 620.92
6 1771.56 564.47
7 1948.72 513.16
8 2143.59 466.51
9 2357.95 424.10
10 2593.74 385.54
14.14-CONVERSION BETWEEN
NATIONAL CURRENCIES' VALUES
INPUT DATA:
currency A ? dollar
currency B ? Czech crown
Answer only one question of the
four (skip other three questions):
value of one unit of A
currency in B currency ? 23.4
value of one unit of B
currency in A currency ?
values of a given product
(service) in A currency, in B
currency ?
prices of a unit of a given
product (service) in A currency, in B
currency ?
RESULT:
Rate Czech crown to dollar =
1 : 0.0427
14.15-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - I
This subprogramme calculates the budget up to 5 years' period providing
that the basic costs for individual components as well as the i n f l a t i o n rate are
t h e s a m e in each year.
INPUT DATA
programme ? fictitious
place, period ? X.,1991-1995
duration of the programme in
years (up to 5 !) ? 5
monetary units ?
Kc
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? y
inflation r a t e
(number between >0 and <1 !) ? 0.04
A n n u a l c o s t of individual components:
1. personnel ? 123000
2. administrative support ? 20700
3. duty travel ? 32000
4. subcontracts ? 45600
5. training ? 12987
6. expendable equipment ? 35609
7. non-expendable
equipment ? 57000
8. premises ? 41000
9. operation and
maintenance ? 12000
10. other expenditure ? 32000
RESULT:
Budget component T o t a l
1. year 2.
year 3. year
4. year 5.year
1 Personnel 666208
123000 127920 133037
138358 143893
2 Admin.support 112118 20700
21528 22389
23285
24216
3 Duty travel 173322
32000 33280
34611
35996 37435
4 Subcontracts 246985 45600 47424
49321
51294 53346
5 Training 70342 12987
13506 14047
14609 15193
6 Expend.equip. 192869 35609
37033 38515
40055 41657
7 Non-exp.eqip. 308730 57000 59280
61651 64117 66682
8 Premises 222069
41000 42640
44346 46119 47964
9 Operat./maint. 64995 12000 12480
12979 13498 14038
10 Other 173322
32000 33280
34611 35996 37435
T o t a l 2230962
411896
428372 445507 463327
481860
14.15-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - I
This subprogramme calculates the budget up to 5 years' period providing
that the basic costs for individual components as well as the i n f l a t i o n
rate are t h e s a m e
in each year.
INPUT DATA
programme ? fictitious
place, period ? X.,1991-1995
duration of the programme in
years (up to 5 !) ? 5
monetary units ?
Kc
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? n
A n n u a l c o s t of individual components:
1. personnel ? 10000
2. administrative
support ? 20000
3. duty travel ? 30000
4. subcontracts ? 44000
5. training ? 5400
6. expendable equipment ? 45000
7. non-expendable
equipment ? 67000
8. premises ? 34000
9. operation and
maintenance ? 5600
10. other expenditure ? 43000
RESULT:
Budget component T o t a l
1. year 2. year 3. year
4. year
5.year
1 Personnel 50000
10000 10000 10000
10000
10000
2 Admin.support 100000 20000
20000 20000
20000
20000
3 Duty travel 150000 30000
30000 30000
30000
30000
4 Subcontracts 220000 44000
44000 44000
44000 44000
5 Training 27000
5400
5400
5400
5400 5400
6 Expend.equip. 225000 45000
45000
45000 45000 45000
7 Non-exp.eqip. 335000 67000
67000
67000 67000 67000
8 Premises 170000
34000 34000
34000 34000 34000
9 Operat./maint. 28000 5600
5600
5600
5600 5600
10 Other 215000 43000
43000 43000 43000
43000
T o t a l 1520000
304000 304000
304000 304000 304000
14.16-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - II
This subprogramme calculates the budget up to 5 years' period for up to 10
components to be d e f i n e d
by the u s e r , providing
that the basic costs for individual components
as well as the eventual inflation rate are the same in each year.
INPUT DATA
programme ? fictitious
place, period ? B.,1991-1995
duration of the programme in
years ? 5
monetary units ? Kc
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? y
inflation r a t e
(number between >0 and <1 !) ? 0.05
how many budget
components ? 4
A n n u a l c o s t s
of individual components:
1 component name, cost ? personnel,98000
2 component name, cost ? vaccine,19800
3 component name, cost ? equipment,45000
4 component name, cost ? transport,18600
RESULT:
Budget component T o t a l 1.
year 2. year
3. year 4. year 5.year
1 personnel 541512
98000 102900 108045
113447 119120
2 vaccine 109408 19800
20790
21830 22921
24067
3 equipment 248654
45000 47250
49613 52093
54698
4 transport 102777 18600
19530 20507 21532
22608
T o t a l 1002350 181400
190470 199994
209993 220493