Comprehensive system of quantitative methods for population health/disease analyses

                                               - examples of practical application

 

 

                                                                       E   P   I   Z   O   O          

                                                                  version 4.0                        

                                                                           

                                                 Prof.Dr  Václav  K o u b a, DrSc.                      

                                                                     

                                                                        

                              EPIZOO is a software package of selected methods for          

                      animal  p o p u l a t i o n   h e a l t h   analysis  and  programming 

                 applicable on any animal species, any disease at any time and in any place

 

The methods have been tested and used in practice for animal population health and disease analyses and control programmes at local, national and international levels. The software is applicable to any species of animal kingdom, i.e. including Homo sapiens.

Detailed information on EPIZOO individual subprogramme formulae and procedures see in EPIZMETH software as well as in  internet  -www.cbox.cz/vaclavkouba/epimethodology.htm.

 

The examples’ results do not include:  introductory part (repeating input data) and graphs as it is normal when using EPIZOO software.                                                                             

 

         M A I N    M  E  N  U    OF   SUBPROGRAMME  GROUPS

 

         1-Animal population - characteristics of health importance

         2-Animal population health/disease analysis - basic indicators

         3-Selected indicators of animal population health structures

         4-Selected indicators of epizootic process dynamics

         5-Selected indicators of animal disease risk assessment

         6-Consequences of animal population health and disease

         7-Investigations of animal population health situation

         8-Methods related to sampling in population investigations

         9-Selected aspects of animal population health programmes

         10-Cost and efficiency of animal population health programmes

         11-Complementary subprogrammes - I

         12-Complementary subprogrammes - II

         13-Annex I - Selected basic statistical methods

         14-Annex II - Other selected statistical and economic methods

 

 

1-ANIMAL POPULATION - SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF HEALTH IMPORTANCE

========================================================================       

        1-Animal population size and species structure

        2-Animal population categories (strata) structure

        3-Animal population territorial distribution

        4-Breeding/production conditions influencing animals distribution

        5-Ecological conditions influencing animals distribution

        6-Selected indicators related to disease resistant animals

        7-Selected indicators related to disease susceptible animals

        8-Animal population production per animal, input, space and time

        9-Animal population dynamics - 'vertical movement'

        10-Estimation of animals number according to survival rates

        11-Estimation of number of wild animals (vertebrates+invertebrates)

        12-Estimation of animal population size based on capture/recapture

        13-Estimation of animal population size based on average density

        

 

1.1-ANIMAL POPULATIONS SIZE AND SPECIES STRUCTURE

Notes: Applicable also on the etiological agents' vectors and reservoirs.  Differentiate total and at risk populations !

INPUT DATA:

     animal populations ? domestic mammals

     place (territory, land, sector, etc.) ? Czech Republic                           time ? 1995

  List animal species , number of animals :

          1  species, animals ? cattle,1988964

          2  species, animals ? sheep,122104

          3  species, animals ? goats,33133

          4  species, animals ? horses,19000

          5  species, animals ? pigs,3804821       

RESULT:

    Species              Absolute     Proportion     Percentage

                                Number

    cattle                  1988964          0.3333            33.3270

    sheep                   122104          0.0205              2.0460

    goats                      33133          0.0056             0.5552

    horses                    19000          0.0032             0.3184

    pigs                    3804821          0.6375            63.7535

    T o t a l              5968022          1.000000      100.0000

 

1.2-ANIMAL POPULATION CATEGORIES (STRATA) STRUCTURE

(according to breed, age, gender, weight, physiological stage, nutrition status, immunity status, performance, type/level of productivity, type of breeding, type of exploitation, production stage, technology, concentration)

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czech Republic, end of 1993

     species ? cattle                             category according to ? age and sex

     List data:  name of subgroup, number of animals :

          1 : ? cows,830000

          2 : ? heifers >2 years,109000

          3 : ? heifers 1-2 years,294000

          4 : ? bulls >1 year,237000

          5 : ? young 6-12 m.,297000

          6 : ? calves <6 m.,392000                                                   

RESULT:

    Category                 Number of      Proportion    Percentage

    Subgroup                 Animals

    cows                           830000          0.384437         38.4437

    heifers >2 years        109000          0.050486           5.0486

    heifers 1-2 years       294000          0.136174         13.6174

    bulls >1 year             237000          0.109773         10.9773

    young 6-12 m.           297000          0.137564         13.7564

    calves <6 m.              392000          0.181566         18.1566

    T o t a l                     2159000         1.000000        100.0000

 

1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION

     This subprogramme calculates:   1) animal population - territorial density and distribution

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic, 1.3.1995

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     space measure unit  ? km2

  List data::

   1   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? Central Bohemia, 11490,270000

   2   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? South Bohemia,11345,328000

   3   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? West Bohemia,10875,244000

   4   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? North Bohemia,7819,119000

   5   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? East Bohemia,11240,399000

   6   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? South Moravia,15028,416000

   7   subterritory, s i z e, animals ? North Moravia,11067,254000

RESULT :

 Subterritory            km2       Number of        Average    Proportion  Percentage

                                                 Animals            Density

 Central Bohemia   11490      270000                23.50          0.133005      13.3005

 South Bohemia     11345      328000                28.91          0.161576      16.1576

 West Bohemia      10875      244000                22.44          0.120197      12.0197

 North Bohemia       7819      119000                15.22          0.058621        5.8621

 East Bohemia        11240      399000                35.50          0.196552     19.6552

 South Moravia     15028      416000                27.68          0.204926      20.4926

 North Moravia     11067      254000                22.95          0.125123      12.5123

 T o t a l                  78864    2030000                25.74          1.000000    100.0000

                                            

1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION

     This subprogramme calculates:   2) farms - average number of animals and territorial distribution

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic, 1.1.1964

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all                  farm type ? all

  List data :

   1   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? Cent.Bohemia,2600,350608

   2   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? South Bohemia,1474,383325

   3   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? West Bohemia,916,174325

   4   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? North Bohemia,562,112426

   5   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? East Bohemia,2853,382812

   6   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? South Moravia,1831,464124

   7   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? North Moravia,2498,250318

RESULT:

Subterritory          Farms      Number of        Average    Proportion   Percentage

                                                Animals            Number       (from  a l l   farms)

 Cent.Bohemia       2600        350608            134.85             0.204178     20.4178

 South Bohemia     1474        383325            260.06             0.115753     11.5753

 West Bohemia        916        174325            190.31             0.071933       7.1933

 North Bohemia       562        112426            200.05             0.044134       4.4134

 East Bohemia       2853         382812            134.18             0.224046     22.4046

 South Moravia     1831        464124            253.48             0.143788      14.3788

 North Moravia     2498        250318            100.21             0.196168      19.6168

 T o t a l                12734      2117938            166.32             1.000000    100.0000

 

1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION

     This subprogramme calculates:    3) animal population - simple territorial distribution

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic,1.1.1980

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all                           farm type ? all according to size

  List data :

   1   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? <0.5 ha,103840,143247

   2   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? 0.5-50 ha,23354,73413

   3   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? 50-500 ha,95,23338

   4   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? 500-1000 ha,135,80193

   5   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? 1000-2500 ha,984,1388980

   6   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? 2500-4000 ha,556,295262

   7   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? 4000-6000 ha,256,901035

   8   subterritory, number of  f a r m s, animals ? >6000 ha,144,970710

RESULT:

    F A R M S:  AVERAGE NUMBER OF ANIMALS  AND TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION

 Subterritory           Farms           Number of        Average     Proportion    Percentage

                                                        Animals           Number         (from  a l l   farms)

 <0.5 ha                   103840            143247                1.38            0.802696          80.2696

 0.5-50 ha                 23354              73413                3.14             0.180529          18.0529

 50-500 ha                      95              23338            245.66             0.000734            0.0734

 500-1000 ha                135              80193            594.02             0.001044            0.1044

 1000-2500 ha              984          1388980          1411.57             0.007606            0.7606

 2500-4000 ha              556            295262            531.05             0.004298            0.4298

 4000-6000 ha              256            901035           3519.67            0.001979            0.1979

 >6000 ha                     144            970710           6741.04            0.001113            0.1113

 T o t a l                  129364          3876178              29.96            1.000000        100.0000

 

1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION

     This subprogramme calculates:   3) animal population - simple territorial distribution

  INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? world,1995

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

    List data:

   1   subterritory, number of animals ? Africa,196393000

   2   subterritory, number of animals ? N.C.America,164635000

   3   subterritory, number of animals ? S.America,288831000

   4   subterritory, number of animals ? Asia,425761000

   5   subterritory, number of animals ? Europe,106469000

   6   subterritory, number of animals ? Oceania,35706000

RESULT:

 Subterritory                Number of           Proportion        Percentage

                                       Animals

 Africa                        196393000             0.161269            16.1269

 N.C.America             164635000             0.135191            13.5191

 S.America                 288831000             0.237175             23.7175

 Asia                           425761000             0.349616            34.9616

 Europe                      106469000             0.087428               8.7428

 Oceania                      35706000              0.029320              2.9320

 T o t a l                   1217795000             1.000000           100.0000

                                     

1.4-BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS INFLUENCING ANIMALS DISTRIBUTION

(animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration, housing, herd/flock/farm size, management, economic sector, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czech Republic,1972

     type of breeding/production conditions ? genetically controlled cows

     criterion for subgrouping ? milk yield per lactation period

     conditions measure units  ? milking cows

  List data: name of subgroup, number of measure units:

          1 : ? 2700-3499 lit,141354

          2 : ? 3500-3999 lit,62193

          3 : ? 4000-4999 lit,31635

          4 : ? >5000 lit,6257

RESULT:

    Subgroup               milking cows     Proportion   Percentage

    2700-3499 lit                141354            0.585465      58.5465

    3500-3999 lit                  62193            0.257593      25.7593

    4000-4999 lit                  31635            0.131027      13.1027

    >5000 lit                           6257            0.025915        2.5915

    T o t a l                        241439            1.000000     100.0000

 

1.5-ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS INFLUENCING ANIMALS DISTRIBUTION

[atmospherical, geospherical, hydrospherical and biospherical (flora,fauna) factors, hygiene, etc.]

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czech Republic,31.12.1994

     type of ecological conditions ? land use                      criterion for subgrouping ? type of land

     ecological conditions measure units? ha

 List data: name of subgroup, number of measure units:

               1 : ? arable land,3158000

               2 : ? meadows,620000

               3 : ? pastures,266000

               4 : ? forest,2630000

               5 : ? other,1003000

RESULT:

    Subgroup                      ha             Proportion    Percentage

    arable land               3158000           0.411359       41.1359

    meadows                   620000           0.080761          8.0761

    pastures                    266000           0.034649          3.4649

    forest                       2630000           0.342582        34.2582

    other                        1003000           0.130650        13.0650

    T o t a l                    7677000           1.000000      100.0000

 

 1.6-SELECTED INDICATORS RELATED TO DISEASE RESISTANT ANIMALS

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type/form of population resistance ? against IBR/IPV (vaccinated)

     place ? Czech Republic

     Do you want to calculate point prevalence at a given moment (m)  or indicators related to a given period (p) ? m

     time-moment ? 1995

     total number of animals existing at the given moment        ? 1988964

     number of resistant animals existing at the given moment    ? 100040

RESULT:

     Point prevalence rate of resistant animals        =   0.0503   =   5.0298  %

                                            

1.6-SELECTED INDICATORS RELATED TO DISEASE RESISTANT ANIMALS

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     type/form of population resistance ? against hog cholera (vaccinated)

     place ? Ranch G.

     Do you want to calculate point prevalence at a given moment (m)  or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p

     time-period ? 2003

     total number of animals existing  at the beginning of the period                ? 1100

     total number of animals existing in the period         ? 1500

     average number of animals in the period                ? 1250

     number of resistant animals existing  at the beginning of the period            ? 450

     number of resistant animals existing in the period   ? 670

     average number of resistant animals in the period   ? 550

     number of new resistant animals in the period         ? 240

     number of extinct resistant animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+with immunity end) in the period         ? 210

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of resistant animals          =   0.4091

     Period prevalence rate of resistant animals                   =   0.4467

     Average prevalence rate of resistant animals               =   0.4400

     Incidence rate of resistant animals to existing total     =   0.1600

     Incidence rate of resistant animals to average total     =   0.1920

     Incidence rate of resistant animals to initial total         =   0.2182

     Extinction rate of resistant animals to existing total     =   0.1400

     Extinction rate of resistant animals to average total     =   0.1680

     Extinction rate of resistant animals to initial total         =   0.1909

                                                 

1.7-SELECTED INDICATORS RELATED TO DISEASE SUSCEPTIBLE ANIMALS

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of population susceptibility ? to IBR/IPV

     place ? Czech Republic

     Do you want to calculate point prevalence at a given moment (m)  or indicators related to a given period (p) ? m

     time-moment ? end 1955

     total number of animals existing at the given moment           ? 1988964

     number of susceptible animals existing at the given moment ? 1888924

RESULT:

     Point prevalence rate of susceptible animals       =   0.9497  =  94.9702  %

                                             

1.7-SELECTED INDICATORS RELATED TO DISEASE SUSCEPTIBLE ANIMALS

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of population susceptibility ? to IBR/IPV

     place ? Ranch B.

     Do you want to calculate point prevalence at a given moment (m)  or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p

     time-period ? 2003

     total number of animals existing at the beginning of the period        ? 4500

     total number of animals existing in the period             ? 6700

     average number of animals in the period                    ? 5200

     number of susceptible animals existing at the beginning of the period        ? 3500

     number of susceptible animals existing in the period   ? 4300

     average number of susceptible animals in the period  ? 3900

     number of new susceptible animals in the period        ? 1200

     number of extinct susceptible animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+immunized) in the period ? 1500

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of susceptible animals       =   0.7778

     Period prevalence rate of susceptible animals                =   0.6418

     Average prevalence rate of susceptible animals            =   0.7500

     Incidence rate of susceptible animals to existing total  =   0.1791

     Incidence rate of susceptible animals to average total  =   0.2308

     Incidence rate of susceptible animals to initial total      =   0.2667

     Extinction rate of susceptible animals to existing total  =   0.2239

     Extinction rate of susceptible animals to average total  =   0.2885

     Extinction rate of susceptible animals to initial total      =   0.3333

 

1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME

     This subprogramme calculates average animal production per:    1) animal

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech republic,1994

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     total number of animals ? 768000

 List data, values  in measure units:

 1  product, measure units, total quantity ? milk,liters,3134000000

RESULT:

     Product            Measure        Quantity              Average

                                Units                                         per Animal

 1    milk                   liters         3134000000             4080.7292

 

 1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME

     This subprogramme calculates average animal production per:   2) input

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Ranch F.,2003

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,feedlots

     animal product ? meat

     product measure units ? kg

     total quantity of product                    ? 112000

List data, values  in measure units:

 1  input type, input units, input value ? forage mixture,kg,350000

 2  input type, input units, input value ? money,dollars,415000

RESULT:

     Input                  Input            Input                Average kg

                                 Unit           Quantity             per Input Unit

 1   forage mixture     kg             350000                 0.3200

 2   money              dollars         415000                 0.2699

                                                

1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME

     This subprogramme calculates average animal production per:     3) space       

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1985

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     animal product ? milk                           product measure units ? liters

     space measure units  ? 100 ha

   List data, values in measure units:

 1  place, size, total product quantity ? Cent.Bohemia,109940,711000000

 2  place, size, total product quantity ? South Bohemia,113450,634000000

 3  place, size, total product quantity ? West Bohemia,108750,522000000

 4  place, size, total product quantity ? North Bohemia,78190,315000000

 5  place, size, total product quantity ? East Bohemia,112400,884000000

 6  place, size, total product quantity ? South Moravia,150280,1007000000

 7  place, size, total product quantity ? North Moravia,110670,626000000

RESULT:

  Place                      Size          Quantity         Average liters

                                 100 ha      of Product         per 100 ha     Proportion       %

  Cent.Bohemia      109940      711000000          6467.16         0.1513          15.1309

  South Bohemia    113450      634000000          5588.36         0.1349          13.4922

  West Bohemia     108750      522000000          4800.00         0.1111          11.1087

  North Bohemia      78190      315000000          4028.65         0.0670            6.7036

  East Bohemia       112400      884000000          7864.77         0.1881          18.8125

  South Moravia     150280   1007000000          6700.83         0.2143          21.4301

  North Moravia     110670     626000000          5656.46         0.1332          13.3220

  T o t a l                  783680   4699000000          5996.07         1.0000        100.0000

 

1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME

     This subprogramme calculates average animal production per:   4) time

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1989-1994

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     animal product ? milk                    product measure units ? mil.lit

     time measure units ? year

List data, values  in measure units:

 1  subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1989,1,4893

 2  subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1990,1,4802

 3  subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1991,1,4125

 4  subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1992,1,3699

 5  subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1993,1,3350

 6  subperiod, duration, total product quantity ? 1994,1,3134

RESULT:

  Superiod    Duration  Quantity     Average mil.lit

                      year        of Product        per year         Proportion        %

  1989              1                 4893             4893.00             0.2038         20.3850

  1990              1                 4802             4802.00             0.2001         20.0058

  1991              1                 4125             4125.00             0.1719         17.1854

  1992              1                 3699             3699.00             0.1541         15.4106

  1993              1                 3350             3350.00             0.1396         13.9566

  1994              1                 3134             3134.00             0.1306         13.0567

  T o t a l         6               24003            4000.50              1.0000      100.0000

                                                

1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS - 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'

  This subprogramme calculates :  1) combination of numbers of existing, new and extinct animals

INPUT DATA

     place, time-period ? Czech republic,1994

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

Question about indicator to be calculated to be left without the answer ! The other  t h r e e  data must be given !

     number of animals existing at the beginning of the period            ? 2161000

     number of  n e w  born and introduced animals in the period       ? 669838

     number of  e x t i n c t (dead+slaughtered+removed) animals  in the period ?

     number of animals existing at the  e n d  of the period                   ? 2030000

RESULT:

    Number of extinct animals in the period                  =  800838

    Number of animals existing in the period              =  2830838

 

1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS - 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'

  This subprogramme calculates :  2) animal population replacement (restocking) rates

INPUT DATA

     place, time-period ? Czech Republic,1994

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     number of animals existing at the beginning of the period     ? 2161000

     number of  n e w  born animals in the period                            ? 655000

     number of animals introduced in the period                             ? 14282

     number of animals existing in the period                                   ? 2830838

     average number of animals existing in the period                    ? 2095500

     duration (in days) of one population reproduction cycle      ? 1200

RESULT:

      Replacement (restocking) rate to initial number of animals        =  0.3097

      Replacement (restocking) rate to existing number of animals    =  0.2364

      Replacement (restocking) rate to average number of animals    =  0.3194

      Annual proportion of reproduction cycle                                     =  0.3042

 

1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS - 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'

  This subprogramme calculates :   3) estimate of number of animals  w i t h i n  one regular generation cycle

INPUT DATA

     place, time-period ? Farm B.,2003

     species, category(ies) ? poultry,hen

     number of animals at the beginning of the period                                                             ? 12100

     duration (in days) of one regular generation (replacement) cycle                                   ? 420

     duration (in days) between the initial and evaluated days  w i t h i n  the generation cycle  ? 90

RESULT:

   Estimated number of animals existing at the beginning  and still remaining +/  at the evaluated day       =   9507

   +/ If not removed prematurely and in absence of migration.

                                     

1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS - 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'

  This subprogramme calculates :  4) estimate of number of animals  w i t h i n  one regular  c o n t i n u i n g  production/breeding cycle

INPUT DATA

     place, time-period ? Ranch D.,2004

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,feedlots

     number of animals at the beginning of the period              ? 23500

     duration (in days) of one regular  c o n t i n u i n g  production/breeding (replacement) cycle     ? 360

     duration (in days) between the initial and evaluated  days  w i t h i n  the production/breeding cycle      ? 270

RESULT:

  Estimated number of animals existing at the beginning and still remaining +/  at the evaluated day           =   5875

    +/ If not removed prematurely and in absence of migration.

 

1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS - 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'

  This subprogramme calculates :   5) addition and withdrawal rates of animal population (applicable also on import/export of animals)

INPUT DATA

     place, time-period ? Czech Republic,1994

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     total number of animals existing at the beginning of the period    ? 2161000

     total number of animals existing in the period                        ? 2830838

     average number of animals existing in the period                   ? 2095500

     number of new (born+introduced) animals in the period        ? 669838

     number of extinct animals (dead+slaughtered+removed)  in the period   ? 800838

RESULT:

       Addition rate of animals to existing total                     =   0.2366

       Addition rate of animals to average total                     =   0.3197

       Addition rate of animals to initial total                         =   0.3100

       Withdrawal rate of animals to existing total                =   0.2829

       Withdrawal rate of animals to average total                =   0.3822

       Withdrawal rate of animals to initial total                    =   0.3706

       Balance between additions and withdrawals              =  -131000

       Ratio of animal population additions/withdrawals     =   0.8364

       Ratio of animal population withdrawals/additions     =   1.1956

                                                  

1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS - 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'

  This subprogramme calculates :    6) simple model of animal population growth

INPUT DATA

     place, time-period ? Czech Republic,1989-1994

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     number of animals at the beginning of the period            ? 3506000

List data: subperiod, supposed number of new (born+introduced) animals, supposed number of extinct (dead+slaughtered+removed) animals

          1 : ? 1989,1143000,1289000

          2 : ? 1990,1084000,1494000

          3 : ? 1991,934000,1372000

          4 : ? 1992,800000,1151000

          5 : ? 1993,689000,820000

          6 : ? 1994,655000,696000

RESULT:

     SIMPLE  MODEL  FOR  A N I M A L   P O P U L A T I O N   G R O W T H

       Subperiod           New               Extinct             FINAL

 1     1989                1143000         1289000         3360000

 2     1990                1084000         1494000         2950000

 3     1991                934000           1372000         2512000

 4     1992                800000           1151000         2161000

 5     1993                689000             820000         2030000

 6     1994                655000             696000         1989000

      

1.10-ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF ANIMALS ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES   (after a series of subperiods and in absence of migration)

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Ranch F.,2004

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,<1 year age

     total number of animals at the beginning ? 820

  List of data :  name of subperiod, coefficient of survival  probability in form of proportion  :

              subperiod  No 1 ? <3 months,0.93

              subperiod  No 2 ? 3-6 months,0.95

              subperiod  No 3 ? 6-9 months,0.97

              subperiod  No 4 ? 9-12 months,0.99

RESULT:

    From the initial  820 animals after  4  subperiods   it can be estimated about   696 surviving animals.

        Subperiod               Survival      Cumulative     Animals

                                            Rate          Survival          at the End

                                                                Rate              of Subperiod

 1     <3 months                0.9300        0.9300                  763

 2     3-6 months               0.9500        0.8835                  724

 3     6-9 months               0.9700        0.8570                  703

 4     9-12 months             0.9900        0.8484                  696

 

1.11-ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF WILD ANIMALS (VERTEBRATES AND INVERTEBRATES)  (rough estimates based on territory population samples investigations)

INPUT DATA:

     animal species ? antelopes

     place (territory), time ? Mongolia,1964

     surface measure units ? km2

     total territory in surface measure units     ? 1200000

   List data: subterritory names, total size  surface units, investigated surface size, number of found animals:

        1 . subterritory:  ? Somon Y.,2500,250,390

        2 . subterritory:  ? Somon O.,5500,340,280

        3 . subterritory:  ? Somon P.,2700,170,170

        4 . subterritory:  ? Somon Z.,5800,450,1700

        5 . subterritory:  ? Somon T.,2400,120,22

RESULT:

                        S u r f a c e  in km2                          A    n    i    m    a    l    s

 Selected     ------------------------------------          -----------------------------------------------

 Represent.    Total     Investi-   Territory          Found     Average   Estimate    Propor-

 Sub-                              gated      Propor-                               per           of Total        tion

 territory                                         tion                                    km2

 Somon Y.        2500       250       0.1000                 390            1.6            3900            0.1165

 Somon O.        5500      340       0.0618                  280            0.8            4529            0.1353

 Somon P.         2700      170       0.0630                 170            1.0             2700            0.0806

 Somon Z.         5800      450       0.0776               1700            3.8           21911            0.6544

 Somon T.         2400      120       0.0500                   22            0.2              440             0.0131

 T O T A L      18900    1330       0.0704               2562            1.9           33481            1.0000

 

If this average per km2  is applied on the total territory of 1200000 km2 then it can be estimated about  2311579  animals (antelopes) living there.

Do you want to estimate the number of specific disease agents  reservoirs among the animals of the above species, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

ADDITIONAL INPUT DATA:

specific disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

estimated percentage of animals reservoirs (vectors) ? 3

If the estimated percentage is applied on the total territory, then it can be roughly estimated about  69347 antelopes - reservoirs (carriers)

                                                                                                                                                                                                       of foot-and-mouth disease agents living there.

 

1.12-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION SIZE BASED ON CAPTURE/RECAPTURE       in the absence of migration                                  (Ref.: Cannon,Roe)

(This capture-recapture sampling scheme is applicable on feral animals or where mustering is difficult. )

INPUT DATA:

     species ? wold board

     place (territory), time ? District C.,2003-2004

     total number of captured-marked and released animals         ? 120

     total number of animals captured  a f t e r   a   t i m e  suitable to allow for mixing of the population,  but which would preclude many deaths/births    ? 130

     number of recaptured animals of the original capture            ? 110

RESULT:

     Very rough estimation of the population size = about  142 animals

 

1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY

    This subprogramme calculates animal population size for:  1) multiform territory knowing the surface size

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czech Republic,1995

     species ? cattle                    surface measure unit ? km2

     average density of animals per one surface measure unit ? 25.74

     total territory size in surface measure units           ? 78864

RESULT:

    Rough estimation of the population size  =   2029959  animals

 

1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY

    This subprogramme calculates animal population size for:  2) circular territory knowing the radius

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czech Republic,1.3.1995

     species ? cattle                      surface measure unit ? km2

     average density of animals per one surface measure unit ? 25.74

     length measure units? km                      radius in length measure units ? 20

RESULT:

     Rough estimation of the population size  =   32346  animals

 

1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY

    This subprogramme calculates animal population size for:  3) square territory knowing the side length

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czech Republic,1.1.2003

     species ? cattle                         surface measure unit ? km2

     average density of animals per one surface measure unit ? 21.45

     length measure units ? km                  length of square side in length measure units  ? 20

RESULT:

     Territory size                                                     =   400 km2

     Rough estimation of the population size      =   8580  animals

 

1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY

    This subprogramme calculates animal population size for:    4) oblong territory knowing the length and width

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? County C.,1.1.2004

     species ? cattle                           surface measure unit ? km2

     average density of animals per one surface measure unit ? 16.8

     length measure units  ? km                    oblong length in measure units  ? 45                  oblong width in measure units    ? 21

RESULT:

     Territory size                                                 =   945 km2

     Rough estimation of the population size  =   15876  animals

 

1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY

    This subprogramme calculates animal population size for:    5) volume space knowing the length, width and depth (height)

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Pond L.,1.7.2004

     species ? carp

     volume measure unit ? m3                    average density of animals per one volume measure unit ? 0.2

     length measure units  ? m                  length in measure units ? 450                    width in measure units ? 120

     depth (height) in measure units                                         ? 4

RESULT:

     Volume size                                                 =   216000 m3

     Rough estimation of the population size  =   43200 animals

 

 

 

2-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE ANALYSIS - BASIC  INDICATORS

 =================================================================

      1-General indicators for animal population health analysis

      2-Indicators of presence/absence of animal health phenomena

      3-Selected indicators of animal population health (disease free)

      4-Selected indicators of animal population morbidity

      5-Selected indicators of animal population viability (survival)

      6-Selected indicators of animal population mortality

      7-Selected indicators of animal disease nidality (focality)

      8-Selected indicators of animal disease territorial distribution

      9-Human/animal populations and zoonoses

 

Recommendation: small resulting values of the indicators to be multiplied by 100 (per 100 basic units), by 1000 (per 1000 basic units), etc.

 

2.1-GENERAL INDICATORS FOR ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH ANALYSIS

INPUT DATA:

basic units (animals - total, at  r i s k; herds, flocks, farms, space units,  territory units, product units and other epi. risk units) ? cattle

epi. units (basic units with health related characteristic (e.g. disease free, diseased, pathogen carriers, etc.)  or events ? affected by brucellosis

     place ? Czech Republic

Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ? m

     time-moment ? 1.January 1961

     total number of basic units existing at the given moment ? 3030000

                number of epi. units existing at the given moment ? 3321

RESULT:

         Point prevalence rate of epi. units   =     0.0011    =     0.1096  %

                                             

2.1-GENERAL INDICATORS FOR ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH ANALYSIS

INPUT DATA:

basic units (animals - total, at  r i s k; herds, flocks, farms, space units, territory units, product units and other epi. risk units) ? cattle

epi. units (basic units with health related characteristic (e.g. disease free, diseased, pathogen carriers, etc.)  or events ? affected by brucellosis

     place ? Czech Republic

Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p

     time-period ? 1961

     number of basic units existing at the beginning of the period             ? 3030000

     number of basic units existing in the period                  ? 4204320

     average number of basic units in the period                  ? 3081000

     number of epi. units at the beginning of the period      ? 33211

     number of epi. units existing in the period                     ? 35008

     average number of epi. units in the period                     ? 34933

     number of new epi. units in the period                            ? 1797

     number of extinct epi. units in the period                        ? 1648

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of epi. units              =   0.0110

     Period (interval) prevalence rate of epi. units      =   0.0083

     Average prevalence rate of epi. units                   =   0.0113

     Incidence rate of epi. units to existing total         =   0.0004

     Incidence rate of epi. units to average total         =   0.0006

     Incidence rate of epi. units to initial total             =   0.0006

     Extinction rate of epi. units to existing total         =   0.0004

     Extinction rate of epi. units to average total        =   0.0005

     Extinction rate of epi. units to initial total             =   0.0005

Note: To get values per 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, etc. basic units, resulting data in form of proportion to be multiplied by 100, 1000,... etc.

 

2.2-SELECTED INDICATORS OF PRESENCE/ABSENCE DURATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION   HEALTH PHENOMENON

    This subprogramme calculates:   1) animal health phenomenon (disease, measure, environment factor, etc.) presence/absence relation

INPUT DATA:

     animal health phenomenon              ? foot-and-mouth disease

     place                                                  ? Region U.                    period    ? 1999-2000

     time measure units                            ? days

     total duration of  p r e s e n c e  of animal health phenomenon    ? 145

     total duration of  a b s e n c e  of animal health phenomenon      ? 560

     number of periods of  p r e s e n c e  of animal health phenomenon ? 4

     number of periods of  a b s e n c e  of animal health phenomenon   ? 5

RESULT:

Time measure units: days               Total duration:  705

    Average duration of presence of the phenomenon        =    36.25

    Average duration of absence of the phenomenon          =   112.00

    Time proportion of presence of the phenomenon           =   0.2057

    Time proportion of absence of the phenomenon            =   0.7943

    Ratio of periods with/without the phenomenon              =   0.2589

    Ratio of periods without/with the phenomenon              =   3.8621

 

2.2-SELECTED INDICATORS OF PRESENCE/ABSENCE DURATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION   HEALTH PHENOMENON

    This subprogramme calculates:  2) disease persistence (endemism) index - according to Dr Astudillo

INPUT DATA:

     There is a need for data on chronological series of disease presence  and absence durations during several years measured in months.

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     space, period ? Region X. in Brasil, 1975-1982

number  of dif. durations of disease  p r e s e n c e  periods ? 8

number  of dif. durations of disease  a b s e n c e  periods   ? 7

     1 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 1,2

     2 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 2,2

     3 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 3,2

     4 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 5,1

     5 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 8,1

     6 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 10,2

     7 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 13,1

     8 : duration of  p r e s e n c e  (in months), frequency ? 15,1

     1 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 1,5

     2 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 2,1

     3 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 6,2

     4 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 7,1

     5 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 8,1

     6 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 23,1

     7 : duration of  a b s e n c e  (in months), frequency   ? 26,1

RESULT:

         Total number of months:  156

              Disease presence omega               =    0.1644

              Disease absence omega                =    0.1446

              Sum of presence and absence omegas   =    0.3090

              Disease persistence index  (endemism index)      =    0.4679  =   46.7949  %

 

2.3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH

related to  d i s e a s e   f r e e   animals: healthy, unaffected, pathogen free, non diseased; (salubrity, healthiness, wholesomeness, wellness, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of animal population health  (general - crude or particular - cause/attribute specific) ? tuberculin negative

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place ? Czech Republic

Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m)  or indicators related to a given period (p) ? m

     time-moment (point in time) ? 1.1.1960

     total number of animals existing at the given moment    ? 2987000

     number of healthy animals existing at the given moment  ? 2358824

RESULT:

    Point prevalence rate of healthy animals  =   0.7897  =  78.97 %

 

2.3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH

related to  d i s e a s e   f r e e   animals: healthy, unaffected, pathogen free, non diseased; (salubrity, healthiness, wholesomeness, wellness, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of animal population health

     (general - crude or particular - cause/attribute specific) ? tuberculin negative

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place ? Czech republic

Do you want to calculate point(moment) prevalence at a given moment (m)  or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p

     time-period ? 1960

     total number of animals at the beginning of the period    ? 2987000

     total number of animals existing in the period            ? 4161320

     average number of animals in the period                   ? 3008500

     number of healthy animals at the beginning of the period  ? 2358824

     number of healthy animals existing in the period          ? 3287427

     average number of healthy animals in the period           ? 2365493

     number of new healthy animals in the period               ? 928603

     number of extinct healthy animals (slaughtered, removed, diseased)  in the period  ? 921934

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of healthy animals             = 0.7897

     Period prevalence rate of healthy animals                      = 0.7900

     Average prevalence rate of healthy animals                  = 0.7863

     Incidence rate of healthy animals to existing total        = 0.2232

     Incidence rate of healthy animals to average total        = 0.3087

     Incidence rate of healthy animals to initial total            = 0.3109

     Extinction rate of healthy animals to existing total        = 0.2215

     Extinction rate of healthy animals to average total        = 0.3064

     Extinction rate of healthy animals to initial total            = 0.3086

 

Do you want to calculate the relations of the numbers of healthy animals  to those with other epi. characteristics, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

INPUT DATA

     time? 1960

     number of healthy animals at the given time      ? 2987000

     number of diseased animals at the given time     ? 630838

     number of intrafocal animals at the given time   ?

     number of animals at risk at the given time      ?

     number of resistant animals at the given time    ?

     number of susceptible animals at the given time  ?

     number of investigated animals at the given time ? 2769776

RESULT:

     Ratio of healthy animals per diseased one          =     4.7350

     Ratio of diseased animals per healthy one          =     0.2112

     Ratio of healthy animals per investigated one      =     1.0784

     Ratio of investigated animals per healthy one      =     0.9273

 

2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals (unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases, etc. :

      1) total population point prevalence rate at a given moment

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)-type/form (general - crude or cause/attribute-specific; apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time-moment ? Czech Republic,1.1.1960

     total number of animals existing at the given moment        ? 2987000

     number of diseased animals existing at the given moment     ? 628276

     number of diseased animals with clinical symptoms existing at the given moment    ? 0

RESULT:

Point prevalence rate of diseased animals                =   0.2103   =  21.0337 %

 

2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals (unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases, etc. :

      2) total population morbidity related to a given period

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)-type/form (general - crude or cause/attribute-specific;  apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time-period ? Czech Republic,1960

     total number of animals existing  at the beginning of the period          ? 2987000

     total number of animals existing in the period              ? 4161320

     average total number of animals existing in the period      ? 3008500

     number of diseased animals at the beginning of the period   ? 628276

     number of diseased animals existing in the period           ? 753558

     average number of diseased animals in the period            ? 629557

     number of new diseased animals in the  period               ? 125282

     number of extinct diseased animals   (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period   ? 124001

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of diseased animals         =   0.2103

     Period prevalence rate of diseased animals                  =   0.1811

     Average prevalence rate of diseased animals              =   0.2093

 

     Incidence rate of diseased animals to existing total    =   0.0301

     Incidence rate of diseased animals to average total    =   0.0416

     Incidence rate of diseased animals to initial total        =   0.0419

 

     Extinction rate of diseased animals to existing total    =   0.0298

     Extinction rate of diseased animals to average total    =   0.0412

     Extinction rate of diseased animals to initial total        =   0.0415

 

Do you want to calculate the relations of the numbers of diseased animals   to those with other epi. characteristics, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

INPUT DATA:

     given time ? 1.1.1960

     number of diseased animals at the given time     ? 628276

     number of healthy animals at the given time      ? 2358824

     number of intrafocal animals at the given time   ? 520333

     number of animals at risk at the given time      ? 288426

     number of investigated animals at the given time ? 2769776

RESULT:

     Ratio of diseased/healthy animals            =     0.2664

     Ratio of healthy/diseased animals            =     3.7544

     Ratio of diseased/intrafocal animals         =     1.2074

     Ratio of intrafocal/diseased animals         =     0.8282

     Ratio of diseased/at risk animals               =     2.1783

     Ratio of at risk/diseased animals               =     0.4591

     Ratio of diseased/investigated animals    =     0.2268

     Ratio of investigated/diseased animals    =     4.4085

 

2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals (unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases, etc. :

      3) specific transmissible disease attack rates (intrafocal incidence)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)-type/form (general - crude or cause/attribute-specific;  apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? FMD-all true

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time (period of the epizootic) ? Czechoslovakia in 17 foci,1957-1960

     definition of epizootic initial stage ? up to first vet. measures

     t o t a l  number of  a n i m a l s  at specific risk   at the  b e g i n n i n g  of intrafocal exposure      ? 2089

     t o t a l  number of animals that develop  d i s e a s e  during total period of specific epizootics             ? 1076

     diseased in  i n i t i a l  stage (<total diseased)         ? 125

RESULT

      Specific disease attack rate (case rate)       =   0.5151   =  51.5079  %

     Specific disease initial stage attack rate     =   0.0598   =   5.9837  %

     Specific disease post-initial stage attack rate  (secondary attack rate) =   0.4552  =  45.5242  %

     Proportion of initial stage attack rate        =   0.1162   =  11.6171  %

     Proportion of post-initial stage attack rate   =   0.8838  =  88.3829  %

     Ratio initial/post-initial stage attack rates  =   1 :  7.6080

     Ratio post-initial/initial stage attack rates  =   1 :  0.1314

 

2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals (unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases, etc. :

      4) proportional specific disease morbidity rate

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)-type/form (general - crude or cause/attribute-specific;   apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? mastitis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows

     place, time (moment or period) ? Ranch U.,1 June 2004

     number of all diseased animals at a given time              ? 450

     number of animals diseased due to specific cause(s) only  at a given time  ? 78

RESULT:

     Proportional specific disease morbidity rate   =   0.1733   =  17.3333  %

 

2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals (unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases, etc. :

      5) morbidity indicators related to animals at risk (exposed)

 INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)-type/form (general - crude or cause/attribute-specific;   apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? hog cholera

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     place ? Region B.

   Do you want to evaluate point prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p

     period ? 2004

    total number of animals at risk existing  at the beginning of the period  ? 23000

    total number of animals at risk existing in the period           ? 32000

    average number of animals at risk existing in the period         ? 27500

    number of diseased animals at risk at beginning of the period    ? 120

    number of diseased animals at risk existing in the period        ? 3200

    average number of diseased animals at risk in the period         ? 1800

    number of new diseased animals at risk in the  period            ? 3000

    number of extinct (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered)  diseased animals at risk in the period      ? 3320

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of diseased animals at risk     =  0.0052

     Period prevalence rate of diseased animals at risk            =  0.1000

     Average prevalence rate of diseased animals at risk           =  0.0655

 

     Incidence rate of diseased animals at risk to existing total  =  0.0938

     Incidence rate of diseased animals at risk to average total   =  0.1091

     Incidence rate of diseased animals at risk to initial total   =  0.1304

 

     Extinction rate of diseased animals at risk to existing total =  0.1038

     Extinction rate of diseased animals at risk to average total  =  0.1207

     Extinction rate of diseased animals at risk to initial total  =  0.1443

 

2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to diseased animals (unhealthy, affected, infected, invaded, pathogen carriers), clinical cases, etc. :

      6) animal-time incidence rate

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)-type/form (general - crude or cause/attribute-specific;  apparent, true, reported, etc.) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time-period ? Skrivany-Czech Republic,7-30/1/1961

     animal-time unit (day, week, month, year, etc.)                 ? day

     number of new events (diseased animals) in the period           ? 99

Do you know absolute number of animal-time units at risk, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

     average number of animals at risk                               ? 153

     period duration in time units                                   ? 23

RESULT:

     Animal-time incidence rate  (interval incidence density)   =    0.0281  animal-day at risk

 

2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)

     This subprogramme calculates survival indicators according to:   1) general population aspects

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of viability ? general

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech republic,1973

     number of animals existing at the beginning of the period  ? 3309300

     number of animals surviving at the end of the period       ? 3406300

     number of animals existing in the period                   ? 4408000

     number of animals born (live births) in the period         ? 1315000

     number of naturally dead animals in the period             ? 99000

     number of animals slaughtered in the period                ? 1118000

RESULT:

     Animal population viability  index       =    1.0805

     Animal population natality rate  (crude live birth rate)   =    0.2983   =   29.8321 %

     Animal population survival rate    =    1.0293  =  102.9311 %

 

2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)

     This subprogramme calculates survival indicators according to:   2) specific health/disease aspects

INPUT DATA:

     animals health status - specify:  tb free

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, period ? Ranch T.,2004

     number of animals existing at the beginning of the period  ? 800

     number of animals surviving at the end of the period       ? 750

     number of animals existing in the period                   ? 1100

     number of animals born (live births) in the period         ? 300

     number of naturally dead animals in the period             ? 50

     number of animals slaughtered in the period                ? 30

RESULT:

     Animal population viability  index       =    3.7500

     Animal population natality rate  (crude live birth rate)   =    0.2727   =   27.2727 %

     Animal population survival rate          =    0.9375   =   93.7500 %

 

2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)

     This subprogramme calculates survival indicators according to:    3) reproduction categories aspects

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of viability ? reproduction - general

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1973

     number of animals existing in the period                   ? 4408000

     number of animals born (live births) in the period         ? 1315000

     number of females in reproductive age  existing in the period     ? 1330000

     number of weaned new born animals in the period            ? 1250000

RESULT:

     Animal population fertility rate         =    0.9887   =   98.8722 %

     Animal population natality rate  (crude live birth rate)   =    0.2983  =   29.8321 %

     Animal survival-to-weaning rate  (weaned new born animals' rate)  =    0.9506   =   95.0570 %

 

2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)

     This subprogramme calculates survival indicators according to:   4) breeding/production categories aspects

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of viability ? during breeding/fattening

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,young and in feedlots

     place, period ? Ranch D.,2002-2003

     number of animals at the beginning of breeding period      ? 560

     number of animals surviving to the end of breeding period  ? 504

     number of animals at the beginning of fattening period     ? 1200

     number of animals surviving to the end of fattening period ? 1150

RESULT:

     Breeding animals survival rate           =    0.9000    =   90.0000 %

     Fattening animals survival rate          =    0.9583    =   95.8333 %

 

2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY

Do you want to evaluate general-crude mortality / crude death rate (g) or cause/category specific death rate - specific disease mortality (s)  or neonatal mortality rate (n)  ? g

INPUT DATA:

     type of mortality ? crude (general)

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1973

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     total number of animals existing  at the beginning of the period           ? 3093000

     total number of animals existing in the period               ? 4408000

     average total number of animals in the period                ? 3130000

     total number of naturally dead animals in the period         ? 99000

     total number of slaughtered animals in the period            ? 1118000

     total number of diseased animals in the period               ?

     total number of diseased animals naturally dead              ?

RESULT:

     Animal population total mortality rate to initial total            =  0.3935

     Animal population total mortality rate to existing total        =  0.2761

     Animal population total mortality rate to average total        =  0.3888

     Animal population natural mortality rate to initial total        =  0.0320

     Animal population natural mortality rate to existing total    =  0.0225

     Animal population natural mortality rate to average total    =  0.0316

     Slaughtered animals rate to initial total                                    =  0.3615

     Slaughtered animals rate to existing total                                =  0.2536

     Slaughtered animals rate to average total                                =  0.3572

 

  Note: 'total mortality' is based on a sum of dead and slaughtered animals;  'natural mortality' is based on naturally dead animals only.

                                                

2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY

Do you want to evaluate general-crude mortality / crude death rate (g)or cause/category specific death rate - specific disease mortality (s)  or neonatal mortality rate (n)  ? s

INPUT DATA:

     specific disease(s)/form ? Aujeszky disease

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1973

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     total number of animals existing  at the beginning of the period           ? 6093000

     total number of animals existing in the period               ?

     average total number of animals in the period                ? 6179000

     total number of naturally dead animals in the period         ? 250000

     number of specifically diseased animals existing   in the period       ? 24143

     number of naturally dead specifically diseased animals  in the period       ? 17137

     number of slaughtered specifically diseased animals  in the period       ? 6500

RESULT:

   Specific disease total mortality rate to initial total                       =  0.0039

   Specific disease total mortality rate to average total                   =  0.0038

   Specific disease natural mortality rate to initial total                   =  0.0028

   Specific disease natural mortality rate to average total               =  0.0028

   Specificaly diseased slaughtered animals rate to initial total     =  0.0011

   Specificaly diseased slaughtered animals rate to average total  =  0.0011

   Specific disease case fatality rate (lethality)                                 =  0.7098

   Specific disease proportional case fatality rate                            =  0.0685

 

2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY

Do you want to evaluate general-crude mortality / crude death rate (g) or cause/category specific death rate - specific disease mortality (s)  or neonatal mortality rate (n)  ? n

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech republic,1989

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,calves

     number of live animal births in the period                  ? 1302253

     number of deaths of new born animals in the period          ? 62811

RESULT:

    Animal population neonatal mortality rate         =   0.0482  =   4.82 %

 

2.7-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE NIDALITY (FOCALITY)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis               species ? cattle

     focal measure units (herds, flocks, farms, ranches, etc.) ? ranches

     definition of foci ? affected by brucellosis

     type(s)/form(s) of foci (outbreaks) ? all (acute+chronic+in observation)                   place ? Czech republic (coop.+state sectors)

     territorial surface measure units, total number ? km2,78864

     Do you want to calculate indicators related to the given moment (m) or indicators related to the given period (p) ? m

     time-moment ? 1 January 1961

     number of focal measure units existing at the given moment ? 8403

     number of foci existing at the given moment                ? 518

     number of animals existing in foci at the given moment     ? 110891

RESULT:

    Point prevalence rate of foci                       =      0.0616   =      6.1645 %

    Average number of intrafocal animals  at the given moment      =    214.1

    Average density of foci per km2                     =      0.006568

    Ratio of km2 per one focus                          =    152.25

 

2.7-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE NIDALITY (FOCALITY)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis              species ? cattle

     focal measure units (herds, flocks, farms, ranches, etc.) ? ranches

     definition of foci ? affected by brucellosis

     type(s)/form(s) of foci (outbreaks) ? all (acute+chronic+in observation)                   place ? Czech Republic (coop.+state sectors)

     territorial surface measure units, total number ? km2,78864

     Do you want to calculate indicators related to the given moment (m) or indicators related to the given period (p) ? p

     time-period ? 1961

     number of focal measure units existing  at the beginning of the period     ? 8403

     number of foci existing at the beginning of the period     ? 518

     number of focal measure units existing in the period       ? 8403

     number of foci existing in the period                      ? 559

     average number of focal measure units in the period        ? 7486

     average number of foci in the period                       ? 473

     number of new foci in the period                           ? 41

     number of extinct foci in the period                       ? 131

     number of animals existing in foci in the period           ? 120321

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of foci           =    0.0616

     Period prevalence rate of foci                    =    0.0665

     Average prevalence rate of foci                =    0.0632

     Incidence rate of foci to existing total      =    0.0049

     Extinction rate of foci to existing total      =    0.0156

     Average density of foci per km2               =    0.0071

     Average number of intrafocal animals in the given period  =  215.2

 

2.8  SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL  DISEASE  TERRITORIAL  DISTRIBUTION

INPUT DATA:

place ? 1.1.1962

disease(s) ? brucellosis (all forms)

species ? cattle                        category(ies) ? all

surface measure units ? km2 Czechoslovakia                            

surface of evaluated territory ?  127870 km2

Do you want to calculate indicators related to the given moment (m) or indicators related to the given period (p) ?  m

time-moment ? 1.1.1962

affected zones size existing at the given moment :  25000

number of animals existing in affected zones at the given moment ? 960000

RESULT:

    Point prevalence rate of affected area               =      0.1955   =     19.5511 %

    Average number of animals in affected area   per surface unit    =     38.40

 

2.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION     (villages, districts, regions, provinces, counties, zones, countries, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)/form ? screwworm

     species, category(ies) ? mammals,all

     place (territory) ? Country L.

     surface measure units ? km2

     total number of surface measure units of the territory  ? 65000

     Do you want to calculate indicators related to the given moment (m)  or indicators related to the given period (p) ? p

     time-period ? 1988

     number of surface units of affected area   at the beginning of the period  ? 13000

     number of surface units of affected area existing in the period      ? 15600

     average number of measure units of affected area in the period      ? 14500

     number of surface units of new affected area in the period      ? 2600

     number of surface units of extinct affected area  (become free) in the period      ? 200

RESULT:

     Initial point prevalence rate of affected area       =   0.2000

     Period prevalence rate of affected area                =   0.2400

     Average prevalence rate of affected area            =   0.2231

     Incidence rate of affected area                              =   0.0400

     Extinction rate of affected area (recovery rate)   =   0.0031

 

2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS AND ZOONOSES

 This subprogramme calculates:  1) human population density and distribution

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic,1.1.1986

     space measure units ? km2

     List data :

     1  subterritory, size, persons ? Prague City,496,1193513

     2  subterritory, size, persons ? Cent.Bohemia,10994,1137086

     3  subterritory, size, persons ? South Bohemia,11345,695066

     4  subterritory, size, persons ? West Bohemia,10875,873239

     5  subterritory, size, persons ? North Bohemia,7819,1183145

     6  subterritory, size, persons ? East Bohemia,11240,1244452

     7  subterritory, size, persons ? South Moravia,15028,2058020

     8  subterritory, size, persons ? North Moravia,11067,1958877

RESULT:

 Subterritory            km2         Number of     Average    Proportion   Percentage

                                                  Inhabitants    Number

 Prague City             496           1193513         2406.28      0.115389        11.5389

 Cent.Bohemia     10994           1137086           103.43      0.109934        10.9934

 South Bohemia   11345             695066             61.27      0.067199          6.7199

 West Bohemia    10875             873239             80.30      0.084425          8.4425

 North Bohemia     7819           1183145           151.32      0.114386         11.4386

 East Bohemia      11240           1244452           110.72      0.120314         12.0314

 South Moravia    15028          2058020           136.95      0.198969         19.8969

 North Moravia    11067          1958877           177.00      0.189384          18.9384

 T o t a l                 78864        10343398           131.15      1.000000        100.0000

 

2.9- HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS AND ZOONOSES

 This subprogramme calculates:   2) human population categories structure

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic,1982

     category according to ? age of man

     List data :

     1  category, number of persons ? 0-14 years,1120000

     2  category, number of persons ? 15-59 years,2860000

     3  category, number of persons ? 60+ years,1220000

RESULT:

  Category                    Number of     Proportion     Percentage

                                      Inhabitants

 0-14 years                    1120000           0.215385       21.5385

 15-59 years                  2860000           0.550000       55.0000

 60+ years                     1220000           0.234615       23.4615

 T o t a l                         5200000          1.000000      100.0000

 

2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS AND ZOONOSES

 This subprogramme calculates:   3) ratios of animal/human populations

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic,1.1.1996

     animal species                 ? cattle

     number of animals  ?  3462000          number of persons ? 10343398

RESULT:

     Ratio of animals per one person           =    0.334706  :   1

     Ratio of persons per one animal           =    2.987694  :   1

 

2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS AND ZOONOSES

 This subprogramme calculates:   4) ratios of animals/humans diseased by zoonoses

INPUT DATA

     place (territory), time ? Czechoslovakia,1961

     zoonotic disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis                    indicator ? new cases

     animal species                 ? cattle

     number of animals              ? 4518000

     number of diseased animals     ? 4279

     number of persons              ? 15000000

     number of diseased persons     ? 110

RESULT:

     Ratio of diseased animals per one person                    =     0.0003  :   1

     Ratio of diseased animals per one diseased person   =   38.9000  :   1

     Ratio of diseased persons per one animal                    =     0.0000  :   1

     Ratio of diseased persons per one diseased animal   =     0.0257  :   1

 

 

 

3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH STRUCTURES

=================================================================

 

        1-Animal population epizootiological structure

        2-Animal population disease territorial structure

        3-Animal population diseases foci (outbreaks) types' structure

        4-Territory epizootiological structure

        5-Morbidity, mortality and nidality structure by causes/forms

        6-Disease occurrence according to animal species and categories

        7-Disease occurrence according to breeding/production conditions

        8-Disease occurrence according to ecological conditions

        9-Tables of animal disease occurrence acc. to dif. criteria

        10-Tables of animal population, farms and territory epi. structure

        11-Tables of disease foci and intrafocal structure

        12-Proportions of disease different forms/symptoms findings

        13-Proportions of specific etiological agents/antibodies findings

 

 

3.1-ANIMAL POPULATION EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia (coop+state sectors),1.1.1964

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

      total number of animals of a given population            ? 3849365

     number of epizootiologically  h e a l t h y  animals     ? 2133275

     number of exposed epizootiologically healthy animals     ? 940006

     number of directly exposed epiz. healthy animals         ? 300000

     number of animals epizootiologically  i n d e t e r m i n a t e  with clinical symptoms   ? 500

     number of epizootiologically  a f f e c t e d  ( d i s e a s e d )   animals ? 438173

     number of animals epizootiologically affected  (diseased) with clinical symptoms   ? 4300

  RESULT: 

                                                                                         Number     Proportion

Epizootiologically healthy animals                             2133275       0.5542

    Non-exposed epi.healthy animals                             1193269       0.3100

    Exposed epi.healthy animals                                      940006         0.2442

      Indirectly exposed healthy animals                           640006          0.1663

      Directly exposed healthy animals                              300000          0.0779

Epizootiologically indeterminate animals                   1277917       0.3320

    Epiz.indeterminate anim. without symptoms             1277417        0.3319

    Epiz.indeterminate animals with symptoms                       500        0.0001

Epizootiologically affected (diseased) animals         438173         0.1138

    Epiz.affected animals without symptoms                  433873          0.1127

    Epiz.affected animals with symptoms                            4300          0.0011

                   T o t a l                                                           3849365      1.0000

 

3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE

 This subprogramme calculates:  1) diseased animals' territorial density and distribution

INPUT DATA:

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic,1 July 1060

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     space measure units  ? km2

  List data :

 1 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? Central Bohemia,11490,146838

 2 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? South Bohemia,11345,70121

 3 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? West Bohemia,10875,89458

 4 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? North Bohemia,7819,90948

 5 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? East Bohemia,11240,70011

 6 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? South Moravia,15028,89014

 7 subterritory, size, diseased animals ? North Moravia,11067,78012

RESULT:

Subterritory              km2        Diseased         Average   Proportion  Percentage

                                                  Animals            Number     of Total       of Total

 Central Bohemia   11490        146838                12.78       0.231459       23.1459

 South Bohemia     11345          70121                  6.18       0.110531       11.0531

 West Bohemia      10875          89458                  8.23       0.141012       14.1012

 North Bohemia       7819          90948                11.63       0.143360       14.3360

 East Bohemia       11240          70011                  6.23        0.110357       11.0357

 South Moravia    15028          89014                  5.92        0.140312       14.0312

 North Moravia     11067         78012                  7.05        0.122969       12.2969

 T o t a l                 78864         634402                 8.04        1.000000     100.0000

 

3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE

This subprogramme calculates:  2) farms - diseased animals' average number and territorial distribution

INPUT DATA:

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic -cooperatives, 1.1.1964

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all                        disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

  List data :

 1 subter., farms, diseased animals ? Central Bohemia,2600,64960

 2 subter., farms, diseased animals ? South Bohemia,1474,21126

 3 subter., farms, diseased animals ? West Bohemia,916,15754

 4 subter., farms, diseased animals ? North Bohemia,562,26580

 5 subter., farms, diseased animals ? East Bohemia,2853,15302

 6 subter., farms, diseased animals ? South Moravia,1831,16768

 7 subter., farms, diseased animals ? North Moravia,2498,19685

RESULT:

 Subterritory           Farms      Diseased         Average     Proportion   Percentage

                                                  Animals            Number        of Total       of Total

 Central Bohemia     2600          64960               24.98           0.204178        20.4178

 South Bohemia       1474          21126               14.33           0.115753        11.5753

 West Bohemia          916          15754               17.20           0.071933          7.1933

 North Bohemia         562          26580               47.30           0.044134          4.4134

 East Bohemia          2853          15302                5.36            0.224046        22.4046

 South Moravia       1831          16768                 9.16           0.143788        14.3788

 North Moravia       2498          19685                 7.88           0.196168        19.6168

 T o t a l                  12734        180175               14.15           1.000000      100.0000

 

3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE

 This subprogramme calculates:   3) diseased animals' simple territorial distribution

INPUT DATA:

     place (territory), time ? Czech Republic, 1.7.1960

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all                      disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

  List data:

 1 subterritory, diseased animals ? Central Bohemia,146838

 2 subterritory, diseased animals ? South Bohemia,70121

 3 subterritory, diseased animals ? West Bohemia,89458

 4 subterritory, diseased animals ? North Bohemia,90948

 5 subterritory, diseased animals ? East Bohemia,70011

 6 subterritory, diseased animals ? South Moravia,89014

 7 subterritory, diseased animals ? North Moravia,78012

RESULT:

 Subterritory                  Diseased            Proportion        Percentage

                                         Animals               of Total            of Total

 Central Bohemia             146838               0.231459            23.1459

 South Bohemia                 70121               0.110531            11.0531

 West Bohemia                  89458               0.141012            14.1012

 North Bohemia                 90948               0.143360            14.3360

 East Bohemia                    70011               0.110357            11.0357

 South Moravia                 89014                0.140312           14.0312

 North Moravia                 78012                0.122969           12.2969

 T o t a l                            634402                1.000000         100.0000

 

3.3-ANIMAL DISEASE FOCI (OUTBREAKS) TYPES' STRUCTURE

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis                    species ? cattle

     type(s)/form(s) of foci (outbreaks) ? all (acute+chronic+in observation)

     focal measure units (animal housings, herds/flocks areas, farms, ranches, villages, etc.) ? ranches

     place ? Czechoslovakia                           time-moment ? 1.7.1960

     total number of foci existing at the given moment           ? 797

     number of foci with affected (clinically + subclinically)   animals at the given moment ? 546

     number of foci with subclinically only affected animals   at the given moment ? 245

     number of foci without susceptible animals (depopulated)  at the given moment ? 0

RESULT:

      Characteristics                     Number    Proportion     Percentage

   With affected animals               546            0.6851            68.5069

           clinically                              301            0.3777            37.7666

           subclinically only              245            0.3074            30.7403

 With non-affected animals

                (in observation)            251            0.3149            31.4931

  Without susceptible animals

                (depopulated)                   0            0.0000              0.0000

      T o t a l                                     797            1.0000         100.0000

 

3.4-TERRITORY EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE        (villages, districts, regions, provinces, counties, countries, zones, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     territory ? Province C.         time-moment ? 1.1.2004

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? ruminants,all

     surface measure units  ? km2

     total number of surface measure units of the territory  ? 34000

     total number of specifically diseased animals  in the territory  ? 438173

     number of surface measure units  of specific disease(s) free zones  ? 29000

     number of surface measure units of exposed  specific disease(s) free zones (at risk)     ? 3500

     number of surface measure units of zones affected  by specific disease(s)  ? 1500

RESULT:

   Average density of specifically diseased animals   per one km2 =   12.89

                                                                          km2      Proportion        %

  Disease(s) free zones                                 29000       0.8529          85.29

     Non-exposed free zones (out of risk)   25500       0.7500          75.00

     Exposed free zones (at risk)                     3500       0.1029          10.29

  Indeterminate zone                                       3500       0.1029         10.29

  Affected zones                                             1500        0.0441           4.41

            T o t a l                                               34000       1.0000        100.00

 

3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE  ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS

Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m) or nidality/focality (f) or affected territory (t) ? d

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of morbidity ? mastitis           species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia (coop+state sectors),31.12.1976

List data :

     1  cause/form, number of cases  ? path. without symptoms,14355

     2  cause/form, number of cases  ? latent mastitis,234537

     3  cause/form, number of cases  ? acute mastitis,28029

     4  cause/form, number of cases  ? chronic mastitis,70906

RESULT:

     Cause/form                  Number of     Proportion     Percentage

                                          Cases/units

 1   path. without sympto    14355            0.0413             4.1271

 2   latent mastitis                234537           0.6743           67.4292

 3   acute mastitis                  28029           0.0806             8.0583

 4   chronic mastitis              70906            0.2039          20.3854

     T o t a l                            347827           1.0000         100.0000

 

3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE  ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS

Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m) or nidality/focality (f) or affected territory (t) ? m

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of mortality ? according to etiological agents

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1962

List data:

     1  cause/form, number of cases  ? infections,76701

     2  cause/form, number of cases  ? internal dis.,83089

     3  cause/form, number of cases  ? gastro-int.d.,41685

     4  cause/form, number of cases  ? nutrit./tox.,15966

     5  cause/form, number of cases  ? trauma,10707

     6  cause/form, number of cases  ? external d.,4081

     7  cause/form, number of cases  ? reproduction d.,3457

     8  cause/form, number of cases  ? parasitic dis.,448

     9  cause/form, number of cases  ? other diseases,15833

RESULT:

     Cause/form              Number of       Proportion     Percentage

                                       Cases/units

 1   infections                   76701                 0.3044          30.4409

 2   internal dis.                83089                 0.3298          32.9761

 3   gastro-int.d.               41685                 0.1654          16.5438

 4   nutrit./tox.                  15966                 0.0634            6.3365

 5   trauma                        10707                  0.0425           4.2494

 6   external d.                    4081                  0.0162           1.6197

 7   reproduction d.          3457                  0.0137            1.3720

 8   parasitic dis.                 448                  0.0018            0.1778

 9   other diseases          15833                  0.0628            6.2838

     T o t a l                      251967                 1.0000        100.0000

 

3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE   ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS

Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m) or nidality/focality (f) or affected territory (t) ? f

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of nidality ? regions with bovine brucellosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1.7.1960

List data :

     1  cause/form, number of cases  ? prevalence 0-5 %,38

     2  cause/form, number of cases  ? prevalence 5-10 %,6

     3  cause/form, number of cases  ? prevalence 10-15 %,2

     4  cause/form, number of cases  ? prevalence 15-20 %,5

     5  cause/form, number of cases  ? prevalence 20-25 %,1

RESULT:

     Cause/form                      Number of     Proportion     Percentage

                                              Cases/units

 1   prevalence 0-5 %                  38               0.7308           73.0769

 2   prevalence 5-10 %                  6               0.1154           11.5385

 3   prevalence 10-15 %                2               0.0385            3.8462

 4   prevalence 15-20 %                5               0.0962            9.6154

 5   prevalence 20-25 %                1               0.0192            1.9231

     T o t a l                                    52               1.0000        100.0000

 

3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE  ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS

Do you want to evaluate the structure of: morbidity (d) or mortality (m) or nidality/focality (f) or affected territory (t) ? t

INPUT DATA:

     type/form of affected territory ? by foot-and-mouth disease

     place, time ? Country V.,2002

     space measure units  ? km2

List data :

     1  cause/form, number of space units  ? acute course,1500

     2  cause/form, number of space units  ? chronic course,3000

     3  cause/form, number of space units  ? serol.evidence,7500

     4  cause/form, number of space units  ? free,9000

RESULT:

     Cause/form              Number of     Proportion     Percentage

                                             km2

 1   acute course               1500               0.0714           7.1429

 2   chronic course            3000              0.1429          14.2857

 3   serol.evidence            7500               0.3571          35.7143

 4   free                               9000               0.4286          42.8571

     T o t a l                        21000              1.0000         100.0000

 

3.6-DISEASE OCCURRENCE STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO ANIMAL SPECIES AND CATEGORIES

This subprogramme calculates disease occurrence according to  1) species (host range)

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? rabies (WHO Rabies Bulletin Europe - 4/92

     place, time ? Europe,1992

  List data:

  name  of the species, number of diseased animals:

               1 : ? dog,778

               2 : ? cat,622

               3 : ? cattle,919

               4 : ? horse,52

               5 : ? sheep/goat,315

               6 : ? other dom.anim.,17

               7 : ? fox,7318

               8 : ? badger,165

               9 : ? other mustel,265

               10 : ? deer,251

               11 : ? other wild an.,361

RESULT:

      Species                  Diseased       Proportion    Percentage

                                    Animals

    dog                             778                0.070325        7.0325

    cat                               622                0.056223        5.6223

    cattle                           919                0.083070        8.3070

    horse                            52                0.004700        0.4700

    sheep/goat                315                0.028473        2.8473

    other dom.anim.          17                0.001537        0.1537

    fox                             7318                0.661484      66.1484

    badger                        165                0.014915        1.4915

    other mustel              265                0.023954        2.3954

    deer                            251                0.022688        2.2688

    other wild an.            361                0.032631        3.2631

    T o t a l                   11063               1.000000     100.0000

 

3.6-DISEASE OCCURRENCE STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO ANIMAL SPECIES AND CATEGORIES

This subprogramme calculates disease occurrence according to  2) categories

 Animal categories according to:  breed, age, gender, weight, physiological stage, nutrition status, immunity  status, type/level of productivity, type of breeding, type of exploitation,   performance, production stage, technology, concentration, etc.

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? bovine tuberculosis

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1964

     species, category according to ? cattle,age/sex

  List data:

  name  of the subgroup, number of diseased animals:

               1 : ? cows,31412

               2 : ? heifers >1 year,8556

               3 : ? heifers 3-12 m.,5207

               4 : ? calves,6756

               5 : ? others,32202

RESULT:

    Category                 Diseased       Proportion    Percentage

    Subgroup                 Animals

    cows                            31412           0.373361       37.3361

    heifers >1 year             8556           0.101696       10.1696

    heifers 3-12 m.              5207           0.061890        6.1890

    calves                            6756           0.080301        8.0301

    others                          32202           0.382751      38.2751

    T o t a l                        84133           1.000000    100.0000

 

3.7-DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS

(according to: animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration, housing/herd/flock/farm size, management, sector, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis                 species ? cattle

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1.1.1961

     type of conditions ? production sector                      criterion for subgrouping ? sector

  name of the subgroup, number of diseased animals:

               1 : ? cooperatives,38845

               2 : ? state ranches,59605

               3 : ? other state sect.,6148

               4 : ? private,635

RESULT:

    Subgroup                 Diseased       Proportion    Percentage

                                       Animals

    cooperatives              38845             0.369133        36.9133

    state ranches             59605             0.566410        56.6410

    other state sect           6148             0.058423          5.8423

    private                            635             0.006034          0.6034

    T o t a l                     105233             1.000000      100.0000

 

3.7-DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS

(according to: animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration, housing/herd/flock/farm size, management, sector, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine spongiform encephalopathy                    species ? cattle

     place, time ? United Kingdom,1992

     type of conditions ? herd size

     criterion for subgrouping ? herd size

  name of the subgroup, number of diseased animals:

               1 : ? size <50,779

               2 : ? size 50-99,2384

               3 : ? size 100-199,2615

               4 : ? size >199,425

RESULT:

      Subgroup                 Diseased       Proportion    Percentage

                                       Animals

    size <50                         779               0.125584       12.5584

    size 50-99                    2384               0.384330       38.4330

    size 100-199                2615               0.421570       42.1570

    size >199                       425               0.068515         6.8515

    T o t a l                        6203               1.000000     100.0000

 

3.8-DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS

[atmospherical, geospherical, hydrospherical and biospherical (flora/fauna) factors; hygiene, etc.]

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? Thelaziasis rhodesi (acc.Prof.Hovorka)              species ? cattle

     place, time ? Carpat yone in Slovakia,1967

     type of ecological conditions ? clima                 criterion for subgrouping ? climatic zones

  name  of the subgroup, number of diseased animals:

               1 : ? lowland pastures,113

               2 : ? lowland wood,207

               3 : ? under-mount.,190

               4 : ? mountains,62

RESULT:

    Subgroup                 Diseased       Proportion    Percentage

                                       Animals

    lowland pastures          113             0.197552       19.7552

    lowland wood               207             0.361888       36.1888

    under-mount.                190             0.332168       33.2168

    mountains                       62             0.108392       10.8392

    T o t a l                           572            1.000000      100.0000

 

3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO SPECIES,  CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

This subprogramme creates space/time tables of:  1) population disease occurrence according to species

INPUT DATA

     place, time (period) ? Central Europe,1992

     disease ? rabies in wild animals

        name  of the species  1   ? fox

        name  of the species  2   ? badger

        name  of the species  3   ? oth.mustel

        name  of the species  4   ? deer

        name  of the species  5   ? others

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s

     measure units ? disease cases

Row names, values  of individual columns following this sequence:  Subterritory, fox, badger, oth.mustel, deer, others,

     1 row: ? Czechoslov.,775,8,19,4,1

     2 row: ? Austria,17,0,0,0,0

     3 row: ? Germany,1011,24,51,56,9

     4 row: ? Hungary,694,1,6,3,3

     5 row: ? Poland,2079,25,84,113,246

RESULT:

Subterritory    T o t a l      fox        badger  oth.mustel     deer       others

Czechoslov.       807         775            8              19                4               1

Austria                 17           17            0                0                0               0

Germany           1151       1011          24              51              56               9

Hungary             707         694            1                6                3               3

Poland              2547       2079          25              84            113           246

T o t a l             5229       4576          58            160            176           259

Proportion    1.0000     0.8751      0.0111      0.0306       0.0337      0.0495

 

3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO SPECIES,  CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

 This subprogramme creates space/time tables of:  3) population disease occurrence according to ecological conditions

INPUT DATA

     place, time (period) ? Province T.,1999

     disease ? trypanosomiasis                       species ? cattle,all

        name  of the conditions  1   ? forest

        name  of the conditions  2   ? woodland

        name  of the conditions  3   ? savana

        name  of the conditions  4   ? grassland

        name  of the conditions  5   ? steppe

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s

     measure units ? diseased animals

     number of rows  ? 4

Row names, values of individual columns following this sequence:     Subterritory, forest, woodland, savana, grassland, steppe,

     1 row: ? Region O.,15,45,567,780,34

     2 row: ? Region U.,20,56,789,980,58

     3 row: ? Region C.,0,0,346,234,12

     4 row: ? Region K.,34,12,432,670,45

RESULT:

Subterritory     T o t a l     forest     woodland   savana     grassland  steppe

Region O.           1441           15              45             567             780            34

Region U.           1903           20              56             789             980            58

Region C.             592             0                0             346             234            12

Region K.           1193           34              12             432             670            45

T o t a l               5129           69            113            2134          2664          149

Proportion       1.0000      0.0135      0.0220         0.4161       0.5194      0.0291

 

3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO SPECIES, CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

This subprogramme creates space/time tables of:  4) population disease occurrence according to economic conditions

INPUT DATA

     place, time (period) ? Czech republic,1.1.1960-1.1.1965

     disease ? bovine brucellosis           species ? cattle

     number  of conditions (for table head)   ? 4

        name  of the conditions  1   ? Private

        name  of the conditions  2   ? Cooper.

        name  of the conditions  3   ? StateFarm

        name  of the conditions  4   ? Other SF

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t

     measure units ? diseased animals

     number of rows  ? 6

Row names, values  of individual columns following this sequence:     Time, Private, Cooper., StateFarm, Other SF,

     1 row: ? 1.1.1960,848,39044,51373,7371

     2 row: ? 1.1.1961,635,39845,59605,6148

     3 row: ? 1.1.1962,228,36277,43299,8597

     4 row: ? 1.1.1963,80,25095,20994,20791

     5 row: ? 1.1.1964,28,9947,7530,10782

     6 row: ? 1.1.1965,0,0,0,0

RESULT:

Time          T o t a l    Private    Cooper.    StateFarm  Other SF

1.1.1960      98636        848         39044      51373      7371

1.1.1961      106233      635         39845      59605      6148

1.1.1962      88401        228         36277      43299      8597

1.1.1963      66960        80           25095      20994      20791

1.1.1964      28287        28           9947       7530       10782

1.1.1965      0                0             0             0             0

 

3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPI.STRUCTURES

This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and time with following structures:   1) total, free and diseased animals

INPUT DATA

     title ? STRUCTURE OF CATTLE POPULATION ACCORDING TO TUBERCULOSIS

     disease                 ? bovine tuberculosis                       species ? cattle

     place, time             ? Czechoslovakia,1961-1967

     number of rows  ? 7

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t

  Row names, values  of individual columns  following this sequence:     Time, total animals, disease free animals, diseased animals

     1 row: ? 1.1.1961,4387350,379094,829095

     2 row: ? 1.1.1962,4518291,538404,734850

     3 row: ? 1.1.1963,4507175,821142,589736

     4 row: ? 1.1.1964,4479806,1193269,438173

     5 row: ? 1.1.1965,4436166,1436824,312123

     6 row: ? 1.1.1966,4388984,1879248,194489

     7 row: ? 1.1.1967,4462073,2350429,95829

RESULT:

Time         T o t a l       Dis. Free  Proportion  Indeterm.  Affected   Proportion

 

1.1.1961     4387350     379094       0.0864          3179161    829095       0.1890

1.1.1962     4518291     538404       0.1192          3245037    734850       0.1626

1.1.1963     4507175     821142       0.1822          3096297    589736       0.1308

1.1.1964     4479806     1193269     0.2664          2848364    438173       0.0978

1.1.1965     4436166     1436824     0.3239          2687219    312123       0.0704

1.1.1966     4388984     1879248     0.4282          2315247    194489       0.0443

1.1.1967     4462073     2350429     0.5268          2015815    95829         0.0215

 

3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPI.STRUCTURES

This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and time with following structures:    2) total, free and affected herds

INPUT DATA

     title ? CATTLE HERDS STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS

     disease                 ? bovine tuberculosis                species  ? cattle

     place, time             ? Czech Republic,1960-1966

     number of rows  ? 7

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t

  Row names, values  of individual columns  following this sequence:   Time, total herds, disease free herds, affected herds

     1 row: ? 1.1.1960,12154,1518,10636

     2 row: ? 1.1.1961,10625,1557,9068

     3 row: ? 1.1.1962,7191,1857,5334

     4 row: ? 1.1.1963,6138,2207,3931

     5 row: ? 1.1.1964,5797,2692,3105

     6 row: ? 1.1.1965,5385,3056,2329

     7 row: ? 1.1.1966,5059,3465,1594

RESULT:

Time         T o t a l   Dis. Free  Proportion Indeterm.  Affected  Proportion

1.1.1960     12154       1518            0.1249          0             10636        0.8751

1.1.1961     10625       1557            0.1465          0               9068        0.8535

1.1.1962     7191         1857            0.2582          0               5334        0.7418

1.1.1963     6138         2207            0.3596          0               3931        0.6404

1.1.1964     5797         2692            0.4644          0               3105        0.5356

1.1.1965     5385         3056            0.5675          0               2329        0.4325

1.1.1966     5059         3465            0.6849          0               1594        0.3151

 

3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURES

This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and time with following structures:     3) total, free and affected farms

 INPUT DATA

 title ? FARM STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO  TUBERCULOSIS OF CATTLE

     disease                 ? bovine tuberculosis                   species ? cattle

     place, time             ? Czech Republic,1963-1966

     number of rows   ? 4

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t

  Row names, values  of individual columns  following this sequence:   Time, total farms, disease free farms, affected farms

     1 row: ? 1.1.1963,15785,6428,9357

     2 row: ? 1.1.1964,16568,7957,8611

     3 row: ? 1.1.1965,16192,6886,9306

     4 row: ? 1.1.1966,15708,8439,7269

RESULT:

Time         T o t a l   Dis. Free  Proportion  Indeterm.  Affected  Proportion

1.1.1963     15785       6428            0.4072           0               9357       0.5928

1.1.1964     16568       7957            0.4803           0               8611       0.5197

1.1.1965     16192       6886            0.4253           0               9306       0.5747

1.1.1966     15708       8439            0.5372           0               7269       0.4628

 

3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPI.STRUCTURES

This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and time with following structures:   4) total, free and affected territory

INPUT DATA

     title  ? TERRITORY STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO TICK-BORN ENCEPHALITIS

     disease                 ? viral tick-borne encephalitis              species  ? small wild rhodents

     place, time             ? Province O.,2003

     number of rows  ? 5

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s

     surface measure units ? km2

  Row names, values of individual columns  following this sequence:   Territory, total area, disease free area, affected area

     1 row: ? Region G.,5400,3400,1500

     2 row: ? Region D.,3200,1560,320

     3 row: ? Region L.,4890,3280,120

     4 row: ? Region F.,9800,5600,2800

     5 row: ? Region O.,4500,340,3200

RESULT:

Territory    T o t a l   Dis. Free  Proportion  Indeterm.  Affected  Proportion

Region G.    5400        3400             0.6296          500            1500       0.2778

Region D.    3200        1560            0.4875         1320              320       0.1000

Region L.    4890        3280             0.6708         1490             120        0.0245

Region F.    9800        5600             0.5714         1400           2800        0.2857

Region O.   4500          340             0.0756           960           3200         0.7111

T o t a l      27790      14180            0.5103         5670           7940         0.2857

 

3.11-TABLES OF DISEASE FOCI AND INTRAFOCAL STRUCTURES

This subprogramme facilitates the creation of the tables according to space and time, with following structure:   1) foci: total, with diseased animals clinically, subclinically only,

         in observation and depopulated

INPUT DATA

     title  ? BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS FOCI STRUCTURE

     disease                    ? brucellosis (B.abortus Bang)      species  ? cattle

     place, time                ? Province T.31.12.1989

     foci form/type             ? all

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? s

    number of rows  ? 5

  Row names, values of individual columns  following this sequence:  Territory, f o c i  total, foci with animals diseased clinically,  diseased subclinically only, depopulated foci

     1  row: ? Region G.,23,12,11,0

     2  row: ? Region F.,13,2,5,3

     3  row: ? Region J.,34,14,13,2

     4  row: ? Region K.,43,12,14,3

     5  row: ? Region S-,4,2,1,0

RESULT:

Territory    T o t a l    With    Animals    Diseased      In                  Depopulated

                                       -----------------------------------    Observation

                                      Clinically       Subclin. only

Region G.      23                  12                      11                      0                       0

Region F.      13                    2                        5                      3                        3

Region J.       34                  14                      13                      5                        2

Region K.      43                  12                      14                    14                        3

Region S-        4                    2                        1                      1                        0

T o t a l        117                  42                      44                    23                        8

 

  P r o p o r t i o n s:

Territory    T o t a l    With    Animals    Diseased     In           Depopulated

                                     ---------------------------------   Observation

                                       Clinically    Subclin. only

Region G.      1.0000       0.5217         0.4783             0.0000       0.0000

Region F.      1.0000        0.1538        0.3846             0.2308       0.2308

Region J.       1.0000       0.4118         0.3824             0.1471       0.0588

Region K.      1.0000       0.2791         0.3256             0.3256       0.0698

Region S-      1.0000       0.5000         0.2500             0.2500       0.0000

T o t a l          1.0000       0.3590         0.3761             0.1966       0.0684

 

3.11-TABLES OF DISEASE FOCI AND INTRAFOCAL STRUCTURES

This subprogramme facilitates the creation of the tables according to space and time, with following structure:  2) intrafocal animals: total, affected clinically and subclinically,

         indeterminate and disease free

INPUT DATA

     title ? INTRAFOCAL EPIZOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE OF CACTLE IN IBR/IPV FOCI

     disease                    ? IBR/IPV               species ? cattle

     place, time                ? Region R.,1998

     disease form/type          ? all

     data according to subterritories (s) or time (t) ? t

     number of rows  ? 4

  Row names, values  of individual columns  following this sequence:  Time, intrafocal  a n i m a l s  total, diseased clinically,  subclinically, disease free

     1  row: ? I Q 1998,12890,789,8900,980

     2  row: ? II Q 1998,10456,678,6532,1200

     3  row: ? III Q 1998,9876,590,6200,800

     4  row: ? IV Q 1990,9234,789,5900,1200

RESULT:

Time          T o t a l     D  i   s   e   a   s  e  d         Indetermi- Disease Free

                                    Clinically   Subclin. only  nate

I Q 1998       12890         789          8900                     2221        980

II Q 1998      10456         678          6532                    2046        1200

III Q 1998     9876          590          6200                     2286        800

IV Q 1990     9234          789          5900                     1345        1200

    P r o p o r t i o n s:

Time          T o t a l     D  i   s   e   a   s  e  d        Indetermi- Disease Free

                                   Clinically   Subclin. only  nate

I Q 1998       1.0000      0.0612       0.6905               0.1723       0.0760

II Q 1998     1.0000       0.0648       0.6247               0.1957       0.1148

III Q 199      1.0000       0.0597       0.6278               0.2315       0.0810

IV Q 1990    1.0000       0.0854       0.6389               0.1457       0.1300

 

3.12-PROPORTIONS OF DISEASE DIFFERENT FORMS/SYMPTOMS FINDINGS

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? tuberculosis (macroscopic findings in abattoirs)

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1962

     investigations intravitam (i) or postmortem (p)          ? p

     total number of investigated  d i s e a s e d  animals   ? 236667

           List data :

     1  finding name, number of cases ? pneumonal tbc,225899

     2  finding name, number of cases ? liver tbc,53771

     3  finding name, number of cases ? intestinal tbc,66159

RESULT:

Finding            Number of     Total  F i n d i n g s       Total Diseased Animals

                             Cases      Proportion   Percentage   Proportion  Percentage

pneumonal tbc   225899        0.6532         65.3210           0.9545         95.4501

liver tbc                 53771        0.1555         15.5484           0.2272         22.7201

intestinal tbc        66159        0.1913         19.1306            0.2795         27.9545

T o t a l                345829       1.0000        100.0000

 

3.12-PROPORTIONS OF DISEASE DIFFERENT FORMS/SYMPTOMS FINDINGS

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia (selected outbreaks),1957-1960

     investigations intravitam (i) or postmortem (p)          ? i

     total number of investigated  d i s e a s e d  animals   ? 1403

           List data:

     1  form/symptom, number of cases ? anorexia,1401

     2  form/symptom, number of cases ? fever,1058

     3  form/symptom, number of cases ? mouth changes,1336

     4  form/symptom, number of cases ? muzzle changes,642

     5  form/symptom, number of cases ? udder changes,253

     6  form/symptom, number of cases ? foot changes,175

     7  form/symptom, number of cases ? other symptoms,20

RESULT:

Form/symptom       Number of     Total  F i n d i n g s        Total Diseased Animals

                                      Cases      Proportion   Percentage   Proportion  Percentage

 

anorexia                        1401           0.2868           28.6796           0.9986     99.8574

fever                             1058            0.2166           21.6581           0.7541     75.4098

mouth changes           1336           0.2735           27.3490            0.9522     95.2245

muzzle changes            642            0.1314           13.1423           0.4576     45.7591

udder changes             253            0.0518             5.1791           0.1803     18.0328

foot changes                175            0.0358             3.5824           0.1247     12.4733

other symptoms             20            0.0041             0.4094           0.0143      1.4255

T o t a l                        4885            1.0000         100.0000

 

3.13-PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIC ETIOLOGICAL AGENTS/ANTIBODIES' FINDINGS

INPUT DATA:

     etiological group ? Salmonella sp.

     species, category(ies) ? domestic animals,all

     place, time ? Czech Republic,1986

     etiological agents findings (e) or positive serological findings (s) ? e

           List name and numbers:

 1 etiolology, investigations, findings ? S. in cattle,27250,83

 2 etiolology, investigations, findings ? S. calves,25820,603

 3 etiolology, investigations, findings ? S. in pigs,74243,514

 4 etiolology, investigations, findings ? S. in sheep,755,2

 5 etiolology, investigations, findings ? S. in poultry,2213,18

RESULT:

                             N u m b e r    o f                      Total  F i n d i n g s'

                             Tests     Findings      %        Proportion   Percentage

S. in cattle           27250         83          0.3046       0.0680          6.8033

S. calves              25820       603          2.3354       0.4943        49.4262

S. in pigs             74243       514          0.6923        0.4213        42.1311

S. in sheep              755           2          0.2649        0.0016          0.1639

S. in poultry          2213         18         0.8134         0.0148          1.4754

    T o t a l           130281     1220                            1.0000       100.0000

 

3.13-PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIC ETIOLOGICAL AGENTS/ANTIBODIES' FINDINGS

INPUT DATA:

     etiological group ? infectious diseases

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Czech Republic,2000

     etiological agents findings (e) or positive serological findings (s) ? s

           List names and numbers:

 1 spec. dis. test, investigations, findings ? brucellosis,363479,0

 2 spec. dis. test, investigations, findings ? paratuberculosis,5580,44

 3 spec. dis. test, investigations, findings ? IBR/IPV,124346,4002

 4 spec. dis. test, investigations, findings ? enz.leukosis,251647,0

RESULT:

                                  N u m b e r    o f                      Total  F i n d i n g s'

                                 Tests     Findings      %        Proportion   Percentage

brucellosis              363479         0         0.0000       0.0000          0.0000

paratuberculosis        5580       44         0.7885       0.0109          1.0875

IBR/IPV                   124346    4002        3.2184       0.9891         98.9125

enz.leukosis            251647         0         0.0000       0.0000          0.0000

    T o t a l                747038    4046                          1.0000       100.0000

 

 

 

         4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF EPIZOOTIC PROCESS DYNAMICS

         =======================================================

 

         1-Comparative indexes of population health phenomena dynamics

         2-Average of changing numbers of diseased animals, foci etc.

         3-Seasonality of population health/disease phenomena

         4-Selected tendency indicators of morbidity and nidality

         5-Relations between new cases and space/time/diseased/foci

         6-Population 'vertical movement' and chronic disease process

         7-Number of diseased animals according to survival rates

         8-Territorial propagation of transmissible diseases

         9-Development of disease frequency with cyclic tendency

         10-Development of disease with ascending/descending tendency

         11-Chronological time series of population health phenomenon

   

 

4.1-COMPARATIVE INDEXES OF POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENA DYNAMICS

INPUT DATA:

     phenomenon    ? number of tuberculosis cattle

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1967

List time, phenomenon values:

          1 : ? 1.1.1960,628276

          2 : ? 1.1.1961,630838

          3 : ? 1.1.1962,565659

          4 : ? 1.1.1963,456569

          5 : ? 1.1.1964,379757

          6 : ? 1.1.1965,249284

          7 : ? 1.1.1966,158267

          8 : ? 1.1.1967,80009

RESULT:

     Time                  Input Data         Comparative   I n d e x

                                                            Current       Chain

 1   1.1.1960            628276.00           100.0000     100.0000

 2   1.1.1961            630838.00           100.4078     100.4078

 3   1.1.1962            565659.00            90.0335      89.6679

 4   1.1.1963            456569.00            72.6701      80.7145

 5   1.1.1964            379757.00            60.4443      83.1763

 6   1.1.1965            249284.00            39.6775      65.6430

 7   1.1.1966            158267.00            25.1907      63.4886

 8   1.1.1967              80009.00            12.7347      50.5532                                                  

 

4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI  AND OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA

     This subprogramme calculates average of:   1) changing numbers of diseased animals

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place ? Czech Republic

     time (initial and final dates of the period) ? 1.1.1960-1.1.1967

     time measure units ? years

     number of diseased animals existing  at the beginning of period         ? 461345

     number of diseased animals existing  at the end of the period         ? 59071

     total duration of the given period in time measure units ? 8

     subperiods' average duration in time measure units       ? 0.5

RESULT:

     Absolute difference between initial and final number of diseased animals                                  =  -402274

     Average absolute value of the change of number  of diseased animals during one subperiod             =  -25142

     Average relative value of the change of initial number of diseased animals during one subperiod             =  -   6.25 %

                                                

4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI  AND OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA

     This subprogramme calculates average of:    2) changing numbers of foci (outbreaks)

INPUT DATA:

     foci ? bovine brucellosis (incl.in observation)

     place ? Czechoslovakia

     time (initial and final dates of the period) ? 1.1.1961-1.1.1965

     time measure units ? years

     number of foci (outbreaks) existing  at the beginning of the period         ? 1420

     number of foci (outbreaks) existing  at the end of the period         ? 266

     total duration of the given period in time measure units ? 4

     subperiods' average duration in time measure units       ? 1

RESULT:

     Absolute difference between initial and final number of foci (outbreaks)                                  =  -1154

     Average absolute value of the change of number  of foci (outbreaks) during one subperiod             =  -288

     Average relative value of the change of initial number  of foci (outbreaks) during one subperiod             =  -  25.00 %

                                       

4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI  AND OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA

     This subprogramme calculates average of:    3) changing numbers of epi. phenomenon units

INPUT DATA:

     epi. phenomenon ? tuberculinizations of cattle

     place ? Czechoslovakia

     time (initial and final dates of the period) ? 1959-1967

     time measure units ? years

     epi. phenomenon measure units ? individual applications

     number of epi. phenomenon measure units  at the beginning of the period         ? 4972644

     number of epi. phenomenon measure units   at the end of the period         ? 9739572

     total duration of the given period in time measure units ? 9

     subperiods' average duration in time measure units       ? 1

RESULT:

     Absolute difference between initial and final number  of epi. phenomena                                  =   4766928

     Average absolute value of the change of number of epi. phenomena during one subperiod             =   529659

     Average relative value of the change of initial number of epi. phenomena during one subperiod             =   11.11 %

 

4.3.-SEASONALITY OF POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE PHENOMENA

This subprogramme calculates seasonality of:  1) disease(s)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? trichophytosis

     species, category(ies) ? humans,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1962-1964

     indicator measure units ? sick persons

     number of years  ? 3

 Absolute monthly values:

             January     ? 323,324,284

             February    ? 405,348,256

             March       ? 289,288,285

             April       ? 272,271,210

             May         ? 239,240,190

             June        ? 20,0,160

             July        ? 60,180,131

             August      ? 127,128,96

             September   ? 101,111,0

             October     ? 103,150,148

             November    ? 79,117,0

             December    ? 174,229

RESULT:

                       Total Number     %       Monthly Average    Season Index

 

     January           931.00     14.6892         310.33         176.2701  %

     February       1009.00     15.9198         336.33         191.0382  %

     March             862.00     13.6005         287.33         163.2061  %

     April               753.00      11.8807         251.00         142.5686  %

     May                669.00      10.5554         223.00         126.6646  %

     June                180.00        2.8400           60.00          34.0802  %

     July                371.00         5.8536         123.67          70.2430  %

     August          351.00         5.5380         117.00          66.4563  %

     September     212.00         3.3449           70.67          40.1388  %

     October         401.00         6.3269         133.67          75.9230  %

     November     196.00         3.0925           65.33          37.1095  %

     December     403.00          6.3585         134.33          76.3017  %

     T o t a  l       6338.00       100.0000        176.06

 

4.3-SEASONALITY OF POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE PHENOMENA

This subprogramme calculates seasonality of: 2) other phenomenon (outbreaks, vaccination, costs, losses, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     epi. phenomenon ? positive larvoscopic test for Dictyocaulus filariain lambs

     place, period ? Košice,1957

     indicator measure units ? positive tests

     number of years  ? 1

 Absolute monthly values

             January     ? 18

             February    ? 8

             March       ? 38

             April       ? 31

             May         ? 0

             June        ? 10

             July        ? 21

             August      ? 11

             September   ? 26

             October     ? 0

             November    ? 0

             December    ? 0

RESULT:

                           Total Number     %       Monthly Average   Season Index

     January            18.00           11.0429          18.00                   132.5153  %

     February            8.00             4.9080            8.00                     58.8957  %

     March              38.00           23.3129          38.00                    279.7546  %

     April                31.00            19.0184          31.00                    228.2209  %

     May                   0.00              0.0000            0.00                       0.0000  %

     June                 10.00              6.1350          10.00                     73.6196  %

     July                  21.00            12.8834          21.00                   154.6012  %

     August            11.00             6.7485           11.00                    80.9816  %

     September       26.00           15.9509           26.00                   191.4110  %

     October             0.00             0.0000             0.00                       0.0000  %

     November         0.00             0.0000             0.00                       0.0000  %

     December          0.00             0.0000             0.00                      0.0000  %

     T o t a l           163.00        100.0000           13.58                     

 

4.4-SELECTED TENDENCY INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND NIDALITY

     This subprogramme calculates tendency indicators of:    1) animal disease morbidity

 INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1964

     number of diseased animals at the beginning of the period    ? 476759

     number of diseased animals  existing in the period            ? 560944

     average number of diseased animals  existing in the period            ? 406864

     number of new diseased animals in the period              ? 84185

     number of extinct diseased animals  (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period      ? 223974

RESULT:

     Difference between new and extinct diseased animals         = -139789

     Ratio of new/extinct diseased animals                       =  0.3759

     Ratio of extinct/new diseased animals                       =  2.6605

     Index of morbidity stability tendency to initial number     =  0.8234

     Index of morbidity stability tendency to existing number    =  0.8499

     Index of morbidity stability tendency to average number     =  0.7931

     Index of morbidity reduction tendency to initial number     =  0.2932

     Index of morbidity reduction tendency to existing number    =  0.2492

     Index of morbidity reduction tendency to average number     =  0.3436

     Index of morbidity increasing tendency to initial number    = -0.2932

     Index of morbidity increasing tendency to existing number   = -0.2492

     Index of morbidity increasing tendency to average number    = -0.3436                                               

 

4.4-SELECTED TENDENCY INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND NIDALITY

     This subprogramme calculates tendency indicators of:  2) animal disease nidality

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1960

     number of foci (outbreaks)  at the beginning of the period    ? 769

     number of foci (outbreaks)  existing in the period            ? 827

     average number of foci (outbreaks) existing in the period            ? 742

     number of new foci (outbreaks) in the period              ? 58

     number of extinct foci (outbreaks) in the period          ? 112

RESULT:

     Difference between new and extinct outbreaks               = -54

     Ratio of new/extinct outbreaks                             =  0.5179

     Ratio of extinct/new outbreaks                             =  1.9310

     Index of nidality stability tendency to initial number     =  0.9246

     Index of nidality stability tendency to existing number    =  0.9299

     Index of nidality stability tendency to average number     =  0.9218

     Index of nidality reduction tendency to initial number     =  0.0702

     Index of nidality reduction tendency to existing number    =  0.0653

     Index of nidality reduction tendency to average number     =  0.0728

     Index of nidality increasing tendency to initial number    = -0.0702

     Index of nidality increasing tendency to existing number   = -0.0653

     Index of nidality increasing tendency to average number    = -0.0728                                                  

 

4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI

     This subprogramme calculates following indicators of diseases spreading:     1) ratios of disease new cases/space units

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960

     definition of new cases ? animals with positive tbc test

     number of disease new cases                            ? 191842

     space measure unit             ? km2

     number of space measure units of the territory         ? 78864

RESULT:

   Ratio of disease new cases per one space unit  =     2.4326 / km2

   Ratio of territory per one new case of disease =     0.4111  km2    :  1

 

4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI

     This subprogramme calculates following indicators of diseases spreading:   2) ratios of disease new cases/time units (disease frequency)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960

     definition of new cases ? animals with positive tbc test

     number of disease new cases                            ? 191842

     time measure unit (up to 5 characters !)               ? day

     number of time measure units of the period             ? 365

RESULT:

   Ratio of disease new cases per one time unit      =   525.5945 / day

   Ratio of time period per one new case of disease  =     0.0019  day   :  1

 

4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI

     This subprogramme calculates following indicators of diseases spreading:     3) ratios of disease new cases/total diseased animals

 INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960

     definition of new cases ? animals with positive tbc test

     number of disease new cases                            ? 191842

     total number of diseased animals  at the beginning of the period      ? 628276

     total number of diseased animals existing  in the period          ? 820118

     total average number of diseased animals  existing in the period          ? 629557

RESULT:

     Ratio of disease new cases per one diseased animal  existing at the beginning of the period  =    0.3053

     Ratio of diseased animals existing at the beginning  of the period per one new case of disease  =    3.2750

     Ratio of disease new cases per one diseased   animals existing in the period      =    0.2339

     Ratio of diseased animals existing in the period  per one new case of disease  =    4.2750

     Ratio of disease new cases per one diseased  animal of average number in the period      =    0.3047

     Ratio of diseased animals' average number existing  in the period per one new case of disease  =    3.2816                              

 

4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI

     This subprogramme calculates following indicators of diseases spreading:   4) ratios of new/total foci

NPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1961

     definition of new foci ? ranches with brucellosis animals

     number of new foci                                     ? 41

     total number of foci existing  at the beginning of the period      ? 518

     total number of foci existing in the period            ? 559

     total average number of foci existing in the period          ? 473

RESULT:

     Ratio of new foci per one focus  existing at the beginning of the period  =    0.0792

     Ratio of foci existing at the beginning  of the period per one new focus     =   12.6341

     Ratio of new foci per one focus  existing in the period      =    0.0733

     Ratio of foci existing in the period per one new focus     =   13.6341

     Ratio of new foci per one focus  of average existing in the period      =    0.0867

     Ratio of average number of foci existing in the period per one new focus      =   11.5366

 

4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS

  This subprogramme calculates:   1) combination of existing, new and extinct diseased animals

INPUT DATA

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1962

Question about indicator to be calculated  l e a v e   w i t h o u t  a n y   a n s w e r, however the other three data must be given !

     number of diseased animals existing at the beginning         ? 36656

     number of new diseased animals  (newly diseased+new born diseased+introduced)      ? 519

     number of extinct diseased animals  (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered)       ?

     number of diseased animals existing at the end of the period ? 25288

RESULT:

     Number of extinct diseased animals in the period          =  11887

     Number of diseased animals existing in the period         =  37175                                             

 

4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS

  This subprogramme calculates:   2) diseased animals' replacement rates

INPUT DATA

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1961

     number of new diseased animals  (newly diseased+new born diseased+introduced)       ? 1797

     total number of diseased animals existing  at the beginning of the period      ? 33211

     total number of diseased animals existing in the period       ? 35008

     average number of diseased animals existing in the period     ? 34933

     duration (in days) of one population reproduction cycle       ? 1800

RESULT:

     Diseased animals' replacement rate to initial number    =   0.0541

     Diseased animals' replacement rate to existing number   =   0.0513

     Diseased animals' replacement rate to average number    =   0.0514

     Ratio year/population reproduction cycle                =   0.2028

     Number of years of population reproduction cycle        =   4.9315

 

4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS

  This subprogramme calculates:  3) estimate of remaining diseased animals within one generation cycle

INPUT DATA

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1961

   total number of diseased animals at the beginning of the period ? 450898

   duration (in days) of one regular generation  (replacement/reproduction) cycle       ? 1825

   duration (in days) between the initial and evaluated  days  w i t h i n  the generation cycle       ? 365

RESULT:

     Estimated number of diseased animals existing at the beginning  and still remaining */ at the evaluated day  =  360718

     */ Note: If not eliminated prematurely and in the absence of migration.

 

4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS

  This subprogramme calculates:   4) estimate of remaining diseased animals  within one regular continuing production/breeding cycle

INPUT DATA

     disease(s) ? chronic respiratory disease

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,sows

     place, period ? Ranch B.,2003

   total number of diseased animals at the beginning of the period  ? 1510

   duration (in days) of one regular continuing  production/breeding replacement cycle     ? 455

   duration (in days) between the initial and evaluated days  w i t h i n  the production/breeding cycle     ? 180  

RESULT:

     Estimated number of diseased animals existing at the beginning  and still remaining */ at the evaluated day  =  913

     */ Note: If not eliminated prematurely and in absence of migration.                                        

 

4.7-NUMBER OF DISEASED ANIMALS ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? enzootic leukosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,females born in 1981

     place, period ? Province Y.,1981-1985

     total number of diseased animals at the beginning ? 1250

List data:

names of subperiods, coefficients of diseased animals survival probability :

               1 :  ? < 1 year,0.9

               2 :  ? 1-2 year,0.93

               3 :  ? 2-3 years,0.95

               4 :  ? 3-4 years,0.95

               5 :  ? 4-5 years,0.96 

RESULT:

    Age            Survival    Mortality  Cumulative  Surviving

    Subperiod    Rate        Rate          Survival       Dis.Animals

                                                                Rate          at the End

 1   < 1 year     0.9000      0.1000        0.9000           1125

 2   1-2 year     0.9300      0.0700        0.8370           1046

 3   2-3 years   0.9500      0.0500        0.7951           994

 4   3-4 years   0.9500      0.0500        0.7554           944

 5   4-5 years   0.9600      0.0400        0.7252           906

 

   From the initial number of 1250 diseased animals after 5  age subperiods   it can be estimated about  906 surviving diseased animals (if not removed prematurely).

                                                

4.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF DISEASE TERRITORIAL PROPAGATION

     This subprogramme calculates:   1) combination of velocity, distance and time

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease            species ? antelopes

     place, period ? China-Mongolia borders zones,IX/1963-VI/1964

     territorial surface measure units ? km2        length measure units ? km           time measure units  ? days

Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be calculated !   Other two questions must be answered !

     velocity of disease propagation per one time measure unit  ?

     distance of disease propagation in length measure units    ? 376

     time of disease propagation in time measure units          ? 270

Additional input data:

     average density of animals per one surface unit            ? 0.9

     estimated excision angle grade (1 - 360)   of theoretical circular propagation     ? 90

RESULT:

   Estimated velocity of disease propagation  per one time measure unit    =    1.39 km

   Estimated affected zone  (if the propagation follows circular excision)    =  111188 km2

   Estimated number of animals in affected  zone         =  99932                                                  

 

4.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF DISEASE TERRITORIAL PROPAGATION

     This subprogramme calculates:   2) relations of newly to total affected territory

 INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease                species ? ruminants+pigs

     place, period ? County N.,1998

     territorial surface measure units  ? km2

     new affected territory in surface units                    ? 345

     affected territory at the beginning of the period  in surface units    ? 456

     affected territory existing in the period  in surface units    ? 678

     affected territory average existing  in the period in surface units        ? 540  

RESULT:

      Ratio of new affected territory per one surface unit  of initially affected territory    =   0.7566

      Ratio of initially affected territory per one surface unit of new affected territory   =   1.3217

      Ratio of new affected territory per one surface unit of affected territory existing in the period         =   0.5088

      Ratio of affected territory existing in the period  per one surface unit of new affected territory   =   1.9652

      Ratio of new affected territory per one surface unit of affected territory average in the period         =   0.6389

      Ratio of affected territory average in the period   per one surface unit of new affected territory   =   1.5652

 

4.9-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE FREQUENCY WITH CYCLIC TENDENCY

(sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? rabies                    species, category(ies) ? fox,all

     place, period ? County S.,1990-1996

     time measure unit ? semesters

     supposed amplitude - difference between maximal and minimal  numbers of diseased animals  ? 270

     minimal number of diseased animals (curve bottom)            ? 55

     duration between two peaks of the curve (in time units)      ? 6

     initial value of time (in time measure units) when   the number of diseased animals is in the curve middle  i.e. in the middle between maximal and minimal numbers   ? 0

     total period duration in time measure units   ? 14

RESULT:

                 Time-end of           Estimated number

                 semesters             of diseased animals

                    0                        190

                    1                        306

                    2                        306

                    3                        190

                    4                        73

                    5                        73

                    6                        189

                    7                        306

                    8                        306

                    9                        190

                    10                      73

                    11                      73

                    12                     189

                    13                     306

                    14                     306                                                

 

4.10-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE FREQUENCY WITH ASCENDING/DESCENDING TENDENCY

(part of sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? African swine fever              species, category(ies) ? swine,all

     place, period ? Province U.(newly introduced),May 1965

     time measure units  ? days

     supposed amplitude - difference between maximal and minimal  numbers of diseased animals    ? 25000

     duration between max/min numbers in time units   ? 16

     evaluated period duration in time measure units  ? 16

     Is the curve of diseased animals numbers ascending (a) or descending (d)   ? a

     minimal number of diseased animals at the  b e g i n n i n g   ? 550

RESULT:

                 Time-end of           Estimated number

                 days                  of diseased animals

                    (start)                550

                    1                        790

                    2                       1501

                    3                       2656

                    4                       4211

                    5                       6105

                    6                       8266

                    7                      10611

                    8                      13050

                    9                      15488

                    10                     17833

                    11                     19994

                    12                     21888

                    13                     23443

                    14                     24598

                    15                     25309

                    16                     25549

                                    

4.10-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE FREQUENCY WITH ASCENDING/DESCENDING TENDENCY

(part of sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis                       species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1959-1968

     time measure units ? years

     supposed amplitude - difference between maximal and minimal  numbers of diseased animals    ? 628276

     duration between max/min numbers in time units   ? 10

     evaluated period duration in time measure units    ? 10

     Is the curve of diseased animals numbers ascending (a) or descending (d)   ? d

     minimal number of diseased animals at the period  e n d        ? 0

RESULT:

                 Time-end of     Estimated number

                 years                 of diseased animals

                    (start)              628276

                    1                      612901

                    2                      568281

                    3                      498784

                    4                      411212

                    5                      314138

                    6                      217064

                    7                      129493

                    8                      59995

                    9                      15375

                    10                     0

                                        

4.11-CHRONOLOGICAL TIME SERIES OF POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENON

INPUT DATA:

     variable (indicator), period ? tbc cattle in Czechoslovakia,1960-1969

List subperiods or moments in chronological order, variable values:

                    1  ? 1.1.1960,859557

                    2  ? 1.1.1961,893793

                    3  ? 1.1.1962,795975

                    4  ? 1.1.1963,639171

                    5  ? 1.1.1964,476759

                    6  ? 1.1.1965,336970

                    7  ? 1.1.1966,206567

                    8  ? 1.1.1967,99348

                    9  ? 1.1.1968,19477

                    10  ? 1.1.1969,0

RESULT:

 Order    Subperiod/           Variable          I    n    d    e    x

 Number   Moment                 Value           Current       Chained

  1       1.1.1960            859557.00          100.00         100.00

  2       1.1.1961            893793.00          103.98         103.98

  3       1.1.1962            795975.00           92.60          89.06

  4       1.1.1963            639171.00           74.36          80.30

  5       1.1.1964            476759.00           55.47          74.59

  6       1.1.1965            336970.00           39.20          70.68

  7       1.1.1966            206567.00           24.03          61.30

  8       1.1.1967             99348.00            11.56          48.09

  9       1.1.1968             19477.00              2.27          19.60

  10      1.1.1969                    0.00              0.00           0.00

 Estimated linear trend (least square line):   Y  =  432761.69   -113799.77  X

 

 

 

       5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

       ==========================================================

 

       1-General indicators of animal disease risk

       2-Risk probability assessment of animal disease introduction I.

       3-Risk probability assessment of animal disease introduction II.

       4-Risk comparison of a disease introduction from several territories

       5-Risk comparison of several diseases introduction from one territory

       6-Animal population movement as potential risk of disease propagation

       7-Animal products transfer as potential risk of disease propagation

       8-Concentration of animals as potential risk of disease propagation

       9-Risk probability assessment of animal disease propagation

       10-Per capita food consumption as potential risk of food-born diseases

        (Note: See also module 11 of the Main Menu !)                                               

 

 

5.1-GENERAL INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE RISK                                                                                          (Ref.:Jenicek; Martin; Toma)

INPUT DATA:

     risk (disease) ? hog cholera           place ? Region N.           time ? 31 May 2004

     species ? pigs                                 category(ies) ? all

     Are you going to input relative (r) or absolute (a) data ? r

     incidence rate (major) among animals  e x p o s e d  to disease risk   ? 0.1333

     incidence rate (minor) among animals  n o n-e x p o s e d  to disease risk   ? 0.05   

RESULT:

    Grade of relative  risk (risk ratio)          =   2.6660

    Grade of attributable (differential) risk     =   0.0833

    Fraction of attributable risk                 =   0.6249

    Percentage of attributable risk                    =  62.4906 %

    Grade of risk superiority   (risk odds ratio, risk coefficient)   =   2.9222

                                             

5.1-GENERAL INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE RISK                                                                                          (Ref.:Jenicek; Martin; Toma)

INPUT DATA:

     risk (disease) ? rabies in unvaccinated animals

     place ? Province C.             time ? 2001

     species ? fox                        category(ies) ? all

     Are you going to input relative (r) or absolute (a) data ? a

     number of diseased among animals exposed to the risk         ? 34

     number of healthy among animals exposed to the risk          ? 456

     number of diseased among animals non-exposed to the risk     ? 8

     number of healthy among animals non-exposed to the risk      ? 6080

RESULT:

    Grade of relative risk (risk ratio)              =  52.8041

    Grade of attributable (differential) risk        =   0.0681

    Fraction of attributable risk                    =   0.9811

    Percentage of attributable risk                       =  98.1062 %

    Grade of risk superiority  (risk odds ratio, risk coefficient)      =  56.6667

    Grade of individual risk of exposed animals      =   0.0694

    Grade of individual risk of non-exposed animals  =   0.0013

 

5.2-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION  I.

   This subprogramme calculates a rough probability of potential risk of   specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory (country,   province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria  of  i n a b i l i t y - failure grades (scale between >0 and 1) are used.  The input and result interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge  and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.

   Note: Diseased animals = affected clinically, subclinically and carriers  of specific etiological agents.  Animal products  = not sterilized raw animal products.

INPUT DATA:

     specific disease ? brucellosis

     commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal products (p) ? a

     species/category ? cattle,heifers

     number of animals to be imported ? 1250

     name of importing unit/territory ? A                      name of exporting unit/territory ? B

     time - period ? May 2004

    Situation in the territory/population/unit of origin:

specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1)        ? 0.1

estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y  (failure) to  d i s c o v e r a l l  specifically  i n f e c t e d  animals  and  h e r d s (outbreaks) considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic  methods used, population investigation grade, field and laboratory services capabilities, active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc..           ? 0.4

estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y  (failure)  to  a v o i d  specific disease propagation (n e w   f o c i  - focal incidence) due to the lack of effective foci isolation and control

and field prevention measures during previous critical period        ? 0.5

estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y  (failure)  to   a v o i d  d i s e a s e d  (infected) animals to be  e x p o r t e d  (considering: pre-export animal selection, testing, treatment and control measures, reliability of certificates, eventual  p r e v i o u s   c a s e s of exporting diseased animals or their products, etc.)               ? 0.2

RESULT:

Risk probability grade of disease introduction  =  0.00400000 +- 0.00349914

         Estimated number of infected animals  to be probably introduced is about    5

                                               

5.2-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION I.

   This subprogramme calculates a rough probability of potential risk of    specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory (country,   province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria    of  i n a b i l i t y - failure grades (scale between >0 and 1) are used.  The input and result interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge   and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.

   Note: Diseased animals = affected clinically, subclinically and carriers of specific etiological agents.  Animal products  = not sterilized raw animal products.

INPUT DATA:

     specific disease ? hog cholera

     commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal products (p) ? p

     type of animal product ? meat                       measure units ? MT

     quantity of product to be imported ? 34000

     name of importing unit/territory ? Country A                       name of exporting unit/territory ? Country B

     time - period ? 2003

    Situation in the territory/population/unit of origin:

specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1)        ? 0.05

estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y  (failure) to  d i s c o v e r  a l l : specifically  i n f e c t ed  animals,  h e r d s (outbreaks) and particular products containing specific disease etiological  a g e n t s  (considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, grade of population/product investigation, field and laboratory services capabilities, reporting/information systems, etc.)          ? 0.8

estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y  (failure) to   a v o i d  the contamination of pathogen-free products by specific pathogens during processing, storing and transport   ? 0.7                            estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y  (failure) to  a v o i d  specific etiological agents to be exported by the particular commodity (considering: pre-export product selection, testing, treatment and  protection measures, reliability of certificates, eventual  p r e v i o u s   c a s e s  of 'exporting' disease(s), etc.)        ? 0.6

RESULT:

Risk probability grade of disease introduction  =  0.01680000 +- 0.00136613

         Estimated quantity of infected or contaminated products  to be probably introduced is about    571 MT

                                                 

5.3-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION  II.

   This subprogramme calculates a rough probability of potential risk of   specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory (country,    province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria   of  a b i l i t y  grades (scale between >0 and 1) are used.   The input and result interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge

   and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.

   Note: Diseased animals = affected clinically, subclinically and carriers  of specific etiological agents. Animal products  = not sterilized raw animal products.

INPUT DATA:

     specific disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal products (p) ? a

     species (category) ? cattle

     number of animals to be imported   ? 2350

     name of importing unit/territory   ? Province D.

     name of exporting unit/territory   ? Province N.

specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1)        ? 0.05

estimated grade of   a b i l i t y  to  d i s c o v e r   a l l specifically  i n f e c t e d  animals and  h e r d s (outbreaks) considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used,

population investigation grade, field and laboratory services capabilities, active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc..                                                       ? 0.6

estimated grade of  a b i l i t y   to  a v o i d  specific disease propagation (avoiding  n e w   f o c i  - focal incidence) thanks to preventive/control field measures during previous critical period    ? 0.4

estimated grade of  a b i l i t y   to   a v o i d   d i s e a s e d  animal(s) to be  e x p o r t e d  (considering: pre-export animal selection, testing, treatment and control measures, reliability of certificates, eventual  p r e v i o u s   c a s e s  of exporting infected animal(s) or product(s), etc.)                              ? 0.7

RESULT:

Risk probability grade of disease introduction  =  0.00360000   +-  0.00242153

         Estimated number of infected animals   to be probably introduced is about    8

 

5.3-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION II.

   This subprogramme calculates a rough probability of potential risk of    specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory (country,    province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria    of  a b i l i t y  grades (scale between >0 and 1) are used.    The input and result interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge

   and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.

   Note: Diseased animals = affected clinically, subclinically and carriers  of specific etiological agents. Animal products  = not sterilized raw animal products.

INPUT DATA:

     specific disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal products (p) ? p

     type of animal product             ? meat                    measure units   ? MT

     quantity of product to be imported ? 15000

     name of importing unit/territory   ? Country F.

     name of exporting unit/territory   ? Country G.

specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 - 1)        ? 0.04

estimated grade of  a b i l i t y   to   d i s c o v e r    a l l : specifically  i n f e c t e d  animals,  h e r d s  (outbreaks) and animal products containing specific disease etiological  a g e n t s  (considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, grade of population/product investigation, field and laboratory services capabilities, reporting/information systems, etc.)          ? 0.5

estimated grade of  a b i l i t y  to   a v o i d   contamination of pathogen-free products by specific pathogens during processing, storing and transport          ? 0.4

estimated grade of  a b i l i t y  to  a v o i d   specific etiological agents to be exported by the particular commodity (considering: pre-export product selection, testing, treatment,

and protection measures, reliability of certificates, eventual p r e v i o u s  c a s e s  of 'exporting' the disease, etc.)        ? 0.7

RESULT:

Risk probability grade of disease introduction  =  0.00360000   +-  0.00095847

         Estimated quantity of affected products   to be probably introduced is about    54 MT

                                            

5.4-RISK COMPARISON OF DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM SEVERAL TERRITORIES

This subprogramme compares relative risks of specific disease agents to be introduced by import from territories  n o t   f r e e  of the disease.

   Criteria on disease and exporting territories situation:

a) grade of disease transmissibility - ability to be propagated

b) grade of disease occurrence - considering prevalence, incidence and spread

c) grade of  i n a b i l i t y  to  d i s c o v e r  all infected animals   and herds (due to insufficient: sensitivity of diagnostic methods used,    animal population investigation grade, field and laboratory services    capabilities, active field surveys, reporting/information systems,  etc.)

d) grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  a v o i d  disease propagation (new foci)    i.e. inability to protect specific disease free animals, herds and territory    (due to the lack of or insufficient preventive and control field measures)

e) grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  r e d u c e  disease  o c c u r r e n c e     (due to the lack or insufficient: reduction, elimination and/or eradication    field measures, sanitation actions, field and laboratory services, etc.)

f) grade of  i n e f f e c t i v e n e s s  of  pre-export  'f i l t e r'     (due to lack or insufficient: pre-export selection, treatment,    investigations and control measures, reliability of veterinary services and   their certificates), considering also eventual  p r e v i o u s  c a s e s    of 'exporting' infected animals or infected/contaminated commodities, etc.

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     importing territory, time ? Country C.,May 2001

     commodity ? beef

Key estimated criteria values on the disease and  exporting territories  using the  s c a l e  of the   g r a d e s   from 0 to 10 :

Territory  No. 1 : name:      ? Country A.

   grade of the disease transmissibility                           ? 10

   grade of the disease occurrence                                 ? 5

   grade of inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks      ? 3

   grade of inability to avoid new foci                            ? 5

   grade of inability to reduce the disease at the territory level ? 4

   grade of ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                 ? 3

Territory  No. 2 : name :      ? Country Z.

   grade of the disease transmissibility                           ? 10

   grade of the disease occurrence                                 ? 1

   grade of inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks      ? 3

   grade of inability to avoid new foci                            ? 4

   grade of inability to reduce the disease at the territory level ? 2

   grade of ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                 ? 1

     The values of importance multiplier coefficients   are fixed (default) as follows:

            a) disease transmissibility                          = 5

            b) disease occurrence                                = 25

            c) inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks = 8

            d) inability to avoid new foci of the disease        = 5

            e) inability to reduce occurrence of the disease     = 3

            f) ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'            = 10

     Do you accept this coefficients (y) or you will fixe others (o) ? o                      Define other values of importance multiplier coefficients :

            a) disease transmissibility                           ? 10

            b) disease occurrence                                 ? 30

            c) inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks  ? 15

            d) inability to avoid new foci of the disease         ? 20

            e) inability to reduce occurrence of the disease      ? 5

            f) ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'             ? 10

RESULT:

Exporting         Grade of Disease      Grade of  I n a b i l i t y   to

 Territory         -----------------------   ------------------------------------------    T O T A L

 (with disease     trans- occur-         disco-    avoid    reduce   avoid

 occurrence)       missi- rence            ver         new      occur-   agents      r i s k

                             bility                      disease    foci       rence   'export'     points

        ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Multiplier     * 10   * 30               * 15       * 20        * 5       * 10

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Country A.           10         5                   3              5           4           3                 445

 Country Z.            10         1                   3              4           2           1                275

 

         Territory           Proportion          Percentage

                              of the total 720  allocated risk points

         Country A.           0.6181              61.8056

         Country Z.            0.3819              38.1944

         T o t a l                  1.0000             100.0000

 

5.5-RISK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL DISEASES AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM ONE TERRITORY

This subprogramme compares relative risks of specific diseases agents to be introduced by import from one territory  n o t   f r e e  of these diseases.

   Criteria on diseases and exporting territory situation:

a) grade of disease transmissibility - ability to be propagated

b) grade of disease occurrence - considering prevalence, incidence and spread

c) grade of  i n a b i l i t y  to  d i s c o v e r  all infected animals and   herds (due to insufficient: sensitivity of diagnostic methods used,    animal population investigation grade, field and laboratory services  capabilities, active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc.)

d) grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  a v o i d  disease propagation (new foci),   i.e. inability to protect specific disease free animals, herds and territory    (due to the lack of or insufficient preventive and control field measures)

e) grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  r e d u c e  disease  o c c u r r e n c e   (due to the lack or insufficient: reduction, elimination and/or eradication    measures, sanitation actions, field and laboratory services, etc.)

f) grade of  i n e f f e c t i v e n e s s  of pre-export  'f i l t e r'   (due to lack or insufficient: pre-export selection, treatment,    investigations and control measures, reliability of veterinary services and    their certificates), considering also eventual  p r e v i o u s   c a s e s   of 'exporting' infected animals or infected/contaminated commodities, etc.

INPUT DATA:

     exporting territory ? Country U.

     importing territory, time ? Country C.,May 2004

     commodity ? pregnant heifers

Key estimated criteria values on the diseases and  exporting territory  using the  s c a l e  of the  g r a d e s  from 0 to 10 :

Disease  No. 1 : name :                               ? bov.tuberculosis

   grade of the disease transmissibility                                         ? 5

   grade of the disease occurrence                                                ? 2

   grade of inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks     ? 6

   grade of inability to avoid new foci                                            ? 5

   grade of inability to reduce the disease at the territory level ? 3

   grade of ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                             ? 2

Disease  No. 2 : name :                                 ? bov.brucellosis

   grade of the disease transmissibility                                          ? 6

   grade of the disease occurrence                                                 ? 0.5

   grade of inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks     ? 2

   grade of inability to avoid new foci                                            ? 1

   grade of inability to reduce the disease at the territory level ? 5

   grade of ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                             ? 1

     The values of importance multiplier coefficients  are fixed (default) as follows:

            a) disease transmissibility                          = 5

            b) disease occurrence                                = 25

            c) inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks = 8

            d) inability to avoid new foci of the disease        = 5

            e) inability to reduce occurrence of the disease     = 3

            f) ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'            = 10

     Do you accept this coefficients (y) or you will fix others (o) ? o

     Define other values of importance multiplier coefficients (integers !):

            a) disease transmissibility                          ? 10

            b) disease occurrence                                  ? 30

            c) inability to discover all disease cases/outbreaks ? 40

            d) inability to avoid new foci of the disease        ? 20

            e) inability to reduce occurrence of the disease     ? 5

            f) ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'            ? 10

RESULT:

                         Grade   of               Grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to

                         -------------------       ------------------------------------------    T O T A L

 D i s e a s e     trans-   occur-        disco-     avoid    reduce   avoid

                          missi-   rence           ver          new     occur-    agents    r i s k

                          bility                     disease      foci      rence     'export'    points

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Multiplier * 10       * 30          * 40          * 20        * 5         * 10

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 bov.tbc                5            2                6              5            3             2           485

 bov.brucellosis  6           0.5              2              1            5             1           210

 

         Disease                   Proportion              Percentage

                                   of the total 695  allocated risk points

         bov.tbc                     0.6978                    69.7842

         bov.brucellosis       0.3022                    30.2158

         T o t a l                     1.0000                  100.0000

 

5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

  This subprogramme calculates animal population movement in terms of:     1) combination of distance, time and velocity

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? antelopes,all

     territory, period ? Mongolia,IX/1963-VI/1964

     place(s) of origin, of destination ? Chinese border,Central Ajmak

     number of animals moved between origin and destination places ? 5000

     purpose: rearing (r), fattening (f)  or slaughter (s) or natural (n) ? n

     length measure units   ? km                  time measure units  ? days

Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be calculated;  the other two numeric data must be available !

     velocity of the movement per one time measure unit         ?

     distance of the movement in length measure units           ? 360

     time of the movement in time measure units                 ? 300

RESULT:

      Estimated average velocity of animal movement per one time measure unit  =  1.20  km

 

5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

 This subprogramme calculates animal population movement in terms of:    2) indicators related to movement extent, dispersion and convergency

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? antelopes,all

     territory, period ? China-Mongolia,1963-1964

     place(s) of origin, of destination ? borders,Central Aymak

     number of animals moved between origin and destination places ? 5000

     purpose: rearing (r), fattening (f)  or slaughter (s) or natural (n) ? n

     distance, duration in days ? 360 km,300

     number of animals of the given species/category(ies) existing in place(s) of destination  in the period     ? 50000

     surface measure units (up to 6 characters !)               ? km2

     size of territory of animal origin in surface units        ? 30000

     size of territory of destination in surface units          ? 250000

     level (regional, national, international, etc.)   ? international

     form of movement (transport means, on foot, etc.) ? on foot

RESULT:

 Ratio introduced/total (introduced+local) animals           =     0.9091

 Ratio introduced/local animals        =  1 :  10.0000       =     0.1000

 Ratio local/introduced animals        =  1 :  0.1000        =    10.0000

 Ratio destination/origin territories' size                  =     8.3333

 Ratio origin/destination territories' size                  =     0.1200

 Average number of introduced animals per one day            =    16.6667

 

5.7-ANIMAL PRODUCTS TRANSFER AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

This subprogramme calculates indicators related to raw animal products transfer (distribution) extent, dispersion and convergency.

INPUT DATA:

     animal product, measure units ? beef,MT

     territory framework, period ? Country C.,2004

     place(s) of origin, of destination ? Region H.,Province T.

What is the purpose ? Further processing (f), distribution (d) consumption (c), export e) or import (i)  ? d

     amount of the product transferred between origin  and destination places in product measure units       ? 12000

     amount of the product produced locally  in destination places (territory)       ? 150000

     distance of transfer                                       ? 300-500 km

     time measure units, duration of transfer                   ? days,90

     numbers of places of origin, of destination                ? 30,400

     surface measure units                                      ? km2

     size of territory of product origin in surface units       ? 120

     size of territory of product destination in surface units  ? 4500

     level (regional, national, international,etc.)   ? national                   form of transport   ? camions

RESULT:

 Ratio introduced/total (introduced+local) products       =     0.9259

 Ratio introduced/local products       =  1 : 12.5000     =     0.0800

 Ratio local/introduced products       =  1 :  0.0800     =    12.5000

 Ratio destination/origin places (dispersion)             =    13.3333

 Ratio origin/destination places (convergency)            =     0.0750

 Ratio destination/origin territories' size               =    37.5000

 Ratio origin/destination territories' size               =     0.0267

 Average of introduced product per one destination place  =    30.0000 MT

 Average of introduced product per one time unit          =   133.3333 MT

 

5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:

      1) concentration on known surface space

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Czech Republic,31.12.1994

     number of animals ? 2033963

     type of location [territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es),  farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s), box(es), etc.] ? farms

     identification (name) of location(s) ? cattle farms

     surface space measure unit (m2, ha, km2, shed, farm, etc.)   ? farm

     known space for all animals in surface measure units         ? 14800

RESULT:

     Average number of animals per one surface unit     =    137.4299

     Average surface space per one animal               =      0.0073 farm

 

5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:

      1) concentration on known surface space

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,in feedlots

     place, time ? Farm T.,1.1.2004

     number of animals ? 2200

     type of location [territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es), farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s), box(es), etc.] ? pig-shed

     identification (name) of location(s) ? Block B.

     surface space measure unit (m2, ha, km2, shed, farm, etc.)   ? m2

     known space for all animals in surface measure units         ? 1500

Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     standard (norm) value in space units                     ? 0.5

RESULT:

     Average number of animals per one surface unit     =      1.4667

     Average surface space per one animal               =      0.6818 m2

     Ratio standard to compared space per one animal    =  1 :    1.3636                                                

 

5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:

      2) concentration on unknown surface space (to be calculated)

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, time ? Farm N.,1.1.2005

     number of animals ? 105

     type of location [territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es),  farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s), box(es), etc.] ? shed

     identification (name) of location(s) ? No.4

     surface space measure unit ? m2                                                  length measure unit (up to 6 characters)   ? m

     length of the space surface  ? 60                                                  width (span) of the space surface               ? 10

Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     standard (norm) value in space units                     ? 4.85

RESULT:

     Average number of animals per one surface unit     =      0.1750

     Average surface space per one animal               =      5.7143 m2

     Ratio standard to compared space per one animal    =  1 :    1.1782

 

5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:

       3) concentration in known volume space

 INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,in feedlot

     place, time ? Farm K.,1.1.2005

     number of animals ? 1200

     type of location (air space in stable, shed, box, etc or water environment in reservoir, etc.) ? pig shed

     identification (name) of location(s) ? Block 3

     volume space measure units   ? m3                           known volume space for the animals  ? 650

Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

RESULT:

     Average number of animals per one m3               =      1.8462

     Average volume space per one animal                =      0.5417 m3

 

5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION

 This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:

      4) concentration in unknown volume space (to be calculated)

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,feedlot

     place, time ? Farm L.,1.5.2004

     number of animals ? 2150

     type of location (air space in stable, shed, box, etc. or water environment in reservoir, etc.) ? feedlot shed

     identification (name) of location(s) ? Block 2

     volume space measure units   ? m3                               length measure units   ? m

     length, width (span) of the space                        ? 150,20

     hight of the space                                       ? 6

Do you want to compare the result with the space standard, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     standard (norm) value in space units                     ? 5

RESULT:

     Average number of animals per one m3               =      0.1194

     Average volume space per one animal                =      8.3721 m3

     Ratio standard to compared space per one animal    =  1 :    1.6744

 

5.9-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION

    This subprogramme calculates a rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from existing foci creating new ones.     The input and result interpretation to be based  on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.     A l l  questions about grades and rates (real, supposed or fictitious)

must be answered (scale between >0 and 1) !

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Region O.,2004

     disease? hog cholera                           species ? pigs

     definition of focal units ? farms        definition of foci ? affected farms

    True situation in the given territory/population:

  prevalence rate of specifically diseased animals                       ? 0.08

  incidence rate of specifically diseased animals                      ? 0.12

  prevalence rate of specific disease f o c i                          ? 0.2

  incidence rate of specific disease  f o c i                          ? 0.13

t e n d e n c y  of specific epizootic process  -   stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d)        ? s

- estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  r e d u c e  the number  of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction, elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.                                        ? 0.7

- estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  p r o t e c t  disease free part of population (n e w   f o c i)  due to lack of effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs, etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.   ? 0.5

RESULT:

         Risk probability grade of disease propagation can be estimated   to be about   0.54400718   i.e. about   54.4007  %

 

5.9-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION

    This subprogramme calculates a rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from existing foci creating new ones.     The input and result interpretation to be based  on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.     A l l  questions about grades and rates (real, supposed or fictitious)

must be answered (scale between >0 and 1) !

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Region O.,2004

     disease? hog cholera                        species ? pigs

     definition of focal units ? farms      definition of foci ? affected farms

    True situation in the given territory/population:

  prevalence rate of specifically diseased animals                       ? 0.08

  incidence rate of specifically diseased animals                      ? 0.12

  prevalence rate of specific disease f o c i                          ? 0.2

  incidence rate of specific disease  f o c i                          ? 0.13

t e n d e n c y  of specific epizootic process  -   stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d)        ? d

- estimated increasing or decreasing  g r a d e  considering the characteristics of specific disease process (interaction of population-pathogens-environment, development stage), role of influencing factors, p r e v i o u s  propagation intensity etc.  ? 0.4

- estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  r e d u c e  the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction, elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.                                        ? 0.7

- estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  p r o t e c t  disease free part of population (n e w   f o c i)  due to lack of effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs, etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.   ? 0.5

RESULT:

         Risk probability grade of disease propagation can be estimated  to be about   0.43542346   i.e. about   43.5423  %

 

5.9-RISK PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION

    This subprogramme calculates a rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from existing foci creating new ones.   The input and result interpretation to be based  on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must be epizootiologically meaningful.     A l l  questions about grades and rates (real, supposed or fictitious)

must be answered (scale between >0 and 1) !

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Region O.,2004

     disease? hog cholera                        species ? pigs

     definition of focal units ? farms      definition of foci ? affected farms

    True situation in the given territory/population:

  prevalence rate of specifically diseased animals                       ? 0.08

  incidence rate of specifically diseased animals                      ? 0.12

  prevalence rate of specific disease f o c i                          ? 0.2

  incidence rate of specific disease  f o c i                          ? 0.13

t e n d e n c y  of specific epizootic process   -   stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d)        ? i

- estimated increasing or decreasing  g r a d e  considering the characteristics of specific disease process (interaction of population-pathogens-environment, development stage), role of influencing factors, p r e v i o u s  propagation intensity etc.  ? 0.6

- estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  r e d u c e  the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction, elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.                                        ? 0.7

- estimated grade of  i n a b i l i t y   to  p r o t e c t  disease free part of population (n e w   f o c i)  due to lack of effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs, etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods, veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.   ? 0.5  

RESULT:

      Risk probability grade of disease propagation can be estimated   to be about   0.87084693  i.e. about   87.0847  %

 

5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES

This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person according to:  1) food

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1984

     total number of persons ? 10330000

 List of data - names, units, quantity in measure units:

 1 : food, measure units, quantity ? total meat,kg,916270968

 2 : food, measure units, quantity ? beef,kg,303701996

 3 : food, measure units, quantity ? veal,kg,8264005

 4 : food, measure units, quantity ? pork,kg,443157016

 5 : food, measure units, quantity ? poultry,kg,110530998

 6 : food, measure units, quantity ? milk,liters,1060890968

 7 : food, measure units, quantity ? eggs,pieces,3419230000

RESULT:

     Food               Measure        Quantity            Average

                                Units                                     per Capita

     total meat           kg             916270968             88.7000

     beef                    kg             303701996             29.4000

     veal                     kg                8264005                0.8000

     pork                    kg             443157016             42.9000

     poultry               kg             110530998             10.7000

     milk                  liters          1060890968           102.7000

     eggs               pieces         3419230000           331.0000

 

5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES

This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person according to: 2) place

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1985

     food ? meat                            food measure units ? kg

 List of data - names; quantity in measure units:

 1 : place, persons, food quantity ? Czech Rep.,10343398,923665441

 2 : place, persons, food quantity ? Slovak Rep.,5177441,409535583

RESULT:

 Place                   Persons      Quantity          Average         Grand   T o t a l

                                                 of Food           per Capita        Proportion      %

 Czech Rep.        10343398     923665441         89.3000            0.6928     69.2818

 Slovak Rep.       5177441      409535583         79.1000             0.3072     30.7182

 T o t a l             15520839     1333201024        85.8975             1.0000   100.0000

                                           

5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES

This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person according to:  3) time

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1983-1985

     food ? meat total                       food measure units ? kg

 List of data - names; quantity in measure units:

 1 : subperiod, persons, food quantity ? 1983,10326526,907701635

 2 : subperiod, persons, food quantity ? 1984,10333900,916616930

 3 : subperiod, persons, food quantity ? 1985,10343398,923665441

RESULT:

 Superiod          Persons       Quantity         Average        Grand   T o t a l

                                                 of Food          per Capita      Proportion       %

 1983                 10326526       907701635         87.9000        0.3303    33.0315

 1984                 10333900       916616930         88.7000        0.3336    33.3560

 1985                 10343398       923665441         89.3000        0.3361    33.6125

 T o t a l            31003824     2747984006         88.6337       1.0000   100.0000

 

 

      6-CONSEQUENCES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH AND DISEASE

      ==========================================================

 

         1-Animal health benefit and disease losses in production

         2-Public health consequences of diseases common to animals and man

         3-Losses due to specific disease according to average parameters

         4-Losses due to death and condemnation of animal carcasses

         5-Losses due to diseased animals' utility reduction

         6-Losses due to diseased animals' reproduction deterioration

         7-Inputs benefit/losses in healthy/diseased animals

         8-Summary tables of losses due to animal population diseases

         9-Cost of population health mass actions

         10-Economic losses due to population health/disease measures' costs

         11-Blanc summary tables of animal population disease consequences

 

 

6.1-ANIMAL HEALTH BENEFIT AND DISEASE LOSSES IN PRODUCTION

This programme calculates the benefit/losses in animal population production:  1) using method I. (based on average numbers of production   units per healthy and diseased animals and average   number of healthy and diseased animals)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? chronic respiratory complex

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,sow

     place, period ? Farm J.,1992

     production indicator               ? weaned piglets per sow

     production indicator measure units ? weaned piglets

     monetary units                     ? Czech crowns

     average price of one production measure unit                ? 330

     average number of production units per one healthy animal   ? 16.6

     average number of production units per one diseased animal  ? 5

     average number of healthy animals   ? 30                  average number of diseased animals    ? 50

RESULT:

     Estimated production benefit of animal disease free status  =  348   production units  of value  =  114840 Czech crowns

     Estimated production losses due to animal disease(s)  =  580   production units  of value  =  191400 Czech crowns

                                                 

6.1-ANIMAL HEALTH BENEFIT AND DISEASE LOSSES IN PRODUCTION

This programme calculates the benefit/losses in animal population production:   2) using method II. (based on average number of production   units per animal, per healthy animal and per diseased  animal and average number of all animals)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? chronic respiratory complex

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,56-154 days age

     place, period ? Farm N.,1998

     production indicator               ? weight gain

     production indicator measure units ? kg                         monetary units ? dollars

     average price of one production measure unit                ? 3.2

     average number of production units per one animal           ? 0.72

     average number of production units per one diseased animal  ? 0.64

     average number of production units per one healthy animal   ? 0.86

     average number of animals of a given population             ? 800

RESULT:

     Estimated production benefit of animal disease free status  =  64   production units  of value  =  204 dollars

     Estimated production losses due to animal disease(s)  =  111   production units  of value  =  358 dollars

 

6.2-PUBLIC HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF DISEASES COMMON TO ANIMALS AND MAN

This subprogramme includes only consequences which can be quantified in monetary terms. Deaths, suffering, shortening of human life and production life, invalidity , psychological, etc. consequences cannot be included.

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? brucellosis

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960

     monetary units  ? Kcs

  1. value of preventive investigations                       ? 3000000

  2. value of diseased persons' investigations                ? 1500000

  3. value of specific vaccinations                           ? 60000

  4. value of preventive treatments                           ? 640000

  5. value of curative treatments                             ? 2800000

  6. value of sanitation actions                              ? 35000

  7. value of hospitalization (except costs mentioned above)  ? 3600000

  8. loss due to working incapacity                           ? 2000000

  9. cost of specific control measures                        ? 26000000

  10. value of compensations and subsidies                    ? 3500000

  11. cost of public health services                          ? 1500000

  12. cost of public health extension work                    ? 640000

  13. cost of specific research and training                  ? 700000

  14. loss due to epidemiolog. limitations and prohibitions   ? 1450000

  15. other costs related to disease(s) and epi. measures     ? 5800000

RESULT:

  L o s s / C o s t   T y p e                   Kcs            Proportion  Percentage

  1.Preventive investigations         3000000           0.0564        5.6364

  2.Dis.persons' investigations      1500000           0.0282        2.8182

  3.Vaccinations                                   60000           0.0011         0.1127

  4.Preventive treatments                 640000           0.0120         1.2024

  5.Curative treatments                   2800000           0.0526         5.2607

  6.Sanitation                                       35000            0.0007         0.0658

  7.Hospitalization                           3600000           0.0676         6.7637

  8.Working incapacity                   2000000           0.0376         3.7576

  9.Control measures                     26000000           0.4885       48.8492

 10.Compensation/subsidies         3500000           0.0658         6.5759

 11.Public health services              1500000           0.0282         2.8182

 12.Public health extension             640000            0.0120         1.2024

 13.Research and training                700000            0.0132        1.3152

 14.Epid.limitation/prohibition      1450000            0.0272         2.7243

 15.Others                                        5800000            0.1090        10.8971

    T o t a l                                       53225000            1.0000      100.0000                                                  

 

6.3-LOSSES DUE TO SPECIFIC DISEASE ACCORDING TO AVERAGE PARAMETERS

(Included quantifiable losses only)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960

     lost product, product measure units ? meat,kg

     monetary units ? Kcs

     Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data on diseased animals occurrence ? a

     number of specifically diseased animals                      ? 634402

     average (estimated, standardized) percentage  of specific fatality          ? 3

     average (estimated, standardized) loss in products of one specifically diseased animal in product measure units     ? 50

     average (estimated, standardized) loss in weight of one  specifically diseased animal in kg                        ? 40

     average price of one animal of the same species/category     ? 5000

     average price of one unit of the given product               ? 30

     average price of one kg of animal weight                     ? 15

RESULT:

        Number of specifically diseased animals:  634402

        Estimated number of deaths =  19032  animals   of value  =    95160302 Kcs

        Estimated loss of  30768496 kg of meat of value  =    923054909 Kcs

        Estimated loss of weight =  24614797  kg  of value  =    369221963 Kcs

                 T o t a l  estimated loss    =    1387437175 Kcs

 

6.3-LOSSES DUE TO SPECIFIC DISEASE ACCORDING TO AVERAGE PARAMETERS

(Included quantifiable losses only)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960

     lost product, product measure units ? meat,kg

     monetary units ? Kcs

     Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data on diseased animals occurrence ? r

     number of animals existing in the given period               ? 3008132

     percentage of specifically diseased animals                  ? 21.09

     average (estimated, standardized) percentage  of specific fatality          ? 3

     average (estimated, standardized) loss in products of one  specifically diseased animal in product measure units     ? 50

     average (estimated, standardized) loss in weight of one  specifically diseased animal in kg                        ? 40

     average price of one animal of the same species/category     ? 5000

     average price of one unit of the given product               ? 30

     average price of one kg of animal weight                     ? 15

 

RESULT:

        Number of specifically diseased animals:  634415

        Estimated number of deaths =  19032  animals  of value  =    95162255 Kcs

        Estimated loss of  30769130 kg of meat  of value  =    923073916 Kcs

        Estimated loss of weight =  24615304  kg of value  =    369229566 Kcs

                 T o t a l  estimated loss    =    1387465739 Kcs

 

6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND CONDEMNATION OF ANIMAL CARCASSES

This subprogramme calculates losses:   1) in block

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? outbreak in Czech Republic,1958

     average live weight of animals in kg        ? 400

     monetary units    ? Kcs                      average price of one kg of live weight   ? 22

     number of naturally dead diseased animals               ? 43

     number of destroyed diseased and suspect animals        ? 143

     number of condemned carcasses  of slaughtered diseased animals  ? 2

RESULT:

    Lo s s Type         Number of    Weight       Value in    Proportion

                                    animals         in kg             Kcs

    Naturally dead          43              17200          378400       0.2287

    Destroyed               143              57200        1258400       0.7606

    Condemned                2                  800            17600        0.0106

    T o t a l                    188              75200        1654400        1.0000

                                    

6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND CONDEMNATION OF ANIMAL CARCASSES

This subprogramme calculates losses:   2) according to place

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? general

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,calves

     place, period ? Czech Republic (soc.sector),1982

     average live weight of animals in kg        ? 50

     monetary units    ? Kcs                    average price of one kg of live weight      ? 20

  List subterritory or subperiod names (up to 15 characters), numbers of dead,  sanitary destroyed, condemned diseased animals' carcasses:

 1 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? Prague,649,0,1004

 2 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? Central Bohemia,10438,0,3580

 3 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? South Bohemia,8090,0,3055

 4 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? West Bohemia,6636,0,2944

 5 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? North Bohemia,4158,0,1365

 6 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? East Bohemia,10262,0,4912

 7 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? South Moravia,11814,0,5669

 8 subter., dead, destroyed, condemned ? North Moravia,6536,0,1971    

RESULT:

  Subterritory            Dead      Dest-       Con-       Total       Weight      Value in

                                 Animals   royed    demned   Number      in kg           Kcs

  Prague                        649         0             1004        1653         82650       1653000

  Central Bohemia   10438         0             3580       14018      700900     14018000

  South Bohemia       8090         0             3055       11145      557250     11145000

  West Bohemia        6636         0             2944         9580      479000       9580000

  North Bohemia       4158         0             1365         5523       276150      5523000

  East Bohemia        10262         0             4912       15174       758700    15174000

  South Moravia      11814        0             5669       17483       874150     17483000

  North Moravia        6536        0             1971          8507       425350      8507000

  T o t a l                   58583        0           24500        83083     415415      83083000

 

       Subterritory                L o s t    v a l u e s    in

                                              ---------------------------

                                         Proportion        Percentage

       Prague                         0.0199              1.9896

       Central Bohemia        0.1687             16.8723

       South Bohemia          0.1341             13.4143

       West Bohemia           0.1153             11.5306

       North Bohemia          0.0665               6.6476

       East Bohemia             0.1826             18.2637

       South Moravia          0.2104             21.0428

       North Moravia          0.1024             10.2392

       T o t a l                       1.0000           100.0000

 

6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND CONDEMNATION OF ANIMAL CARCASSES

This subprogramme calculates losses:  3) according to time

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? general

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,calves

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1986-1989

     average live weight of animals in kg        ? 50

     monetary units (up to 10 characters !)      ? Kcs                    average price of one kg of live weight   ? 20

  List subterritory or subperiod names, numbers of dead, sanitary destroyed, condemned diseased animals' carcasses:

 1 subperiod, dead, destroyed, condemned ? 1986,35145,0,20394

 2 subperiod, dead, destroyed, condemned ? 1987,36342,0,20364

 3 subperiod, dead, destroyed, condemned ? 1988,35108,0,20515

 4 subperiod, dead, destroyed, condemned ? 1989,37303,0,25508

RESULT:

S u b p e r i o d   Dead     Dest-  Con-             Total        Weight      Value in

                        Animals    royed  demned      Number       in kg            Kcs

  1986                 35145         0        20394           55539      2776950     55539000

  1987                 36342         0        20364           56706      2835300     56706000

  1988                 35108         0        20515           55623      2781150     55623000

  1989                 37303         0        25508           62811      3140550     62811000

  T o t a l         143898          0        86781         230679     11533950   230679000

 

       S u b p e r i o d     L o s t    v a l u e s    in

                             ----------------------------

                             Proportion        Percentage

       1986                   0.2408             24.0763

       1987                   0.2458             24.5822

       1988                   0.2411             24.1127

       1989                   0.2723             27.2287

       T o t a l             1.0000            100.0000

                           

6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

 Indicators' examples:

  - period for reaching production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or   loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling), yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool,  honey etc.);

  - production per animal, per monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower  unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per time unit, per other input unit;

 - analogical inputs per one production unit;

  - culled animals, weight at a given age, stage of fattening, age/duration  of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body weight;

  - qualitatively classified products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;

  - ability to work, to provide other required performance;

  - herd composition related to animal utility, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:  1) One indicator in one place (population)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows

     place, period ? foci in Czech Republic,1957

     monetary units  ? Kcs

     selected animal utility indicator? milk loss

     selected indicator measure units                  ? liters

     price of one unit of selected indicator           ? 2.5

     number of diseased animals                        ? 1925

     average value of selected indicator  in measure units

                                  in healthy animals   ? 0

                                  in diseased animals  ? 59.6

RESULT:

     Difference of average values of milk loss  between healthy and diseased animals  =    59.60 liters

            T o t a l   estimated loss  =  114730 liters of value   =  286825 Kcs

                                                 

6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:

  - period for reaching production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or  loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling), yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool,   honey etc.);

  - production per animal, per monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower   unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per time unit, per other input unit;

  - analogical inputs per one production unit;

  - culled animals, weight at a given age, stage of fattening, age/duration   of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body weight;

  - qualitatively classified products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;

  - ability to work, to provide other required performance;

  - herd composition related to animal utility, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:      2) One indicator in more than one place (population)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? chronic respiratory disease

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,piglets

     place, period ? Farm J.,1960

     monetary units  ? Kcs

     selected animal utility indicator? weight at 56 days age

     selected indicator measure units                  ? kg

     price of one unit of selected indicator           ? 25

  List data in following sequence:  subterritory, number of diseased animals,  average value of selected indicator (in measure units)  in healthy animals, in diseased animals:

      1  ? Unit A.,30,15.2,11

      2  ? Unit B.,45,13.7,10.

RESULT:

  Subterritory     Diseased    Average   Average       Total       Value of

                            Animals      Value in    Value in        Diffe-       Loss in

                             Number      Healthy    Diseased      rence          Kcs

  Unit A.                  30             15.20           11.00            126           3150

  Unit B.                   45             13.70          10.50             144           3600

    T o t a l  value of estimated loss =  6750 Kcs

 

6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:

  - period for reaching production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or   loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling), yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool,     honey etc.);

  - production per animal, per monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower   unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per time unit, per other input unit;

  - analogical inputs per one production unit;

  - culled animals, weight at a given age, stage of fattening, age/duration   of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body weight;

  - qualitatively classified products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;

  - ability to work, to provide other required performance;

  - herd composition related to animal utility, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:     3) More indicators in one place (population)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows

     place, period ? Province V.,1972

     monetary units  ? dollars

     number of diseased animals ? 3502

List data in following sequence: selected indicator, measure units,  price, average value of selected indicator in measure units   in healthy animals, in diseased animals:

      1  ? body weight,kg,4,450,400

      2  ? milk yied,liters,1,5400,4600

      3  ? milk condemned,liters,1,0,21.5

RESULT:

Indicator             Units      Price          I  n  d  i  c  a  t  o  r               Total      Value of

                                             per        Average in  Average in           Diffe-       Loss in

                                            Unit       Healthy          Diseased            rence       dollars

 

body weight         kg          4.00       450.00            400.00                175100    700400

milk yied               liters      1.00     5400.00          4600.00              2801600   2801600

milk condemn      liters      1.00           0.00               21.50                   75293     75293

    T o t a l  value of estimated loss =  3577293 dollars

 

6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:

  - period for reaching production/reproduction maturity; body weight gain or   loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling), yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool,    honey etc.);

  - production per animal, per monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower  unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per time unit, per other input unit;

  - analogical inputs per one production unit;

  - culled animals, weight at a given age, stage of fattening, age/duration of breeding/fattening to achieve a given body weight;

  - qualitatively classified products (biological or sanitary quality), etc.;

  - ability to work, to provide other required performance;

  - herd composition related to animal utility, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:  4) One indicator in more than one subperiod

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Region N.,1990

     monetary units ? dollars

     selected animal utility indicator? milk loss                              selected indicator measure units ? liters

     price of one unit of selected indicator           ? 0.85

  List data in following sequence:

  subperiod name, number of diseased animals, average value of selected indicator (in measure units)  in healthy animals, in diseased animals:

      1  ? May 1990,100,0,30

      2  ? June 1990,200,0,20

      3  ? July 1990,150,0,15

      4  ? August 1990,100,0,17

      5  ? Sept.1990,450,0,23

      6  ? Oct.1990,300,0,20

RESULT:

  Subperiod        Diseased    Average    Average     Total       Value of

                            Animals     Value in     Value in       Diffe-      Loss in

                            Number      Healthy    Diseased     rence       dollars

  May 1990            100             0.00           30.00           3000        2550

  June 1990            200             0.00           20.00           4000        3400

  July 1990             150             0.00           15.00           2250        1913

  August 1990       100             0.00           17.00           1700        1445

  Sept.1990            450             0.00           23.00          10350       8798

  Oct.1990              300             0.00           20.00           6000        5100

    T o t a l  value of estimated loss =  23206 dollars

 

6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:  number of new born animals,  new born or weaned per mother,  per a given period, per a given space;  number of offsprings per parturition;  fertility rate, pregnancy rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate;  non-pregnancy rate, service period, parturition interval;  replacement rate, age at sexual maturity, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:      1) One indicator in one place (population)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? sterility

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1971

     monetary units  ? Kcs

     selected indicator of animal reproduction    ? calves per cow

     selected indicator measure units             ? calves

     price of one unit of selected indicator      ? 2000

     number of diseased animals                   ? 194084

     average value of selected indicator in measure units in healthy animals  ? 1

RESULT:

       Difference of average values of calves per cow between healthy and diseased animals   =    1.00 calves

                T o t a l  estimated  loss  =  194084 calves  of value =  388168000 Kcs

 

6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:  number of new born animals,  new born or weaned per mother,  per a given period, per a given space;  number of offsprings per parturition;  fertility rate, pregnancy rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate;  non-pregnancy rate, service period, parturition interval;  replacement rate, age at sexual maturity, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:     2) One indicator in more than one place (population)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? vibriosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, period ? Ranch U.,2002

     monetary units  ? dollars

     selected indicator of animal reproduction    ? service period

     selected indicator measure units             ? days

     price of one unit of selected indicator      ? 13

  List data in following sequence:  place name, number of diseased animals,  average value of selected indicator (in measure units)  in healthy animals, in diseased animals:

     1  ? Farm T.,8,58,89

     2  ? Farm R.,67,64,98

     3  ? Fram F.,20,65,87

     4  ? Farm K.,45,59,86    

RESULT:

  Place            Diseased       I n d i c a t o r        Total      Value of

                        Animals          Average  in          Diffe-     Loss in

                        Number     Healthy   Diseased   rence      dollars

Farm T.                8            58.00        89.00            248         3224

Farm R.              67            64.00        98.00          2278       29614

Fram F.              20            65.00        87.00            440         5720

Farm K.             45            59.00        86.00           1215       15795

              T o t a l  value of estimated loss =  54353 dollars

 

6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:  number of new born animals,  new born or weaned per mother,  per a given period, per a given space;  number of offsprings per parturition;  fertility rate, pregnancy rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate;  non-pregnancy rate, service period, parturition interval;  replacement rate, age at sexual maturity, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:     3) More indicators in one place (population)

 INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? trichomoniasis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, period ? Ranch E.,1974

     monetary units ? dollars

     number of diseased animals ? 250

List data in following sequence:  selected indicator, measure units,  price, average value of selected indicator (in measure units)  in healthy animals, in diseased animals:

     1  ? service per.,days,10,60,90

     2  ? calves/cow,calves,1000,0.9,0.7

RESULT:

Indicator         Units        Price           I  n  d  i  c  a  t  o  r             Total     Value of

                                            per        Average in  Average in         Diffe-    Loss in

                                          Unit        Healthy        Diseased            rence     dollars

service per.      days        10.00        60.00             90.00                  7500      75000

calves/cow     calves   1000.00         0.90               0.70                     50        50000

              T o t a l  value of estimated loss =  125000 dollars

 

6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION

(in terms of selected quantitative or qualitative indicators)

Indicators' examples:  number of new born animals,  new born or weaned per mother,  per a given period, per a given space;  number of offsprings per parturition;  fertility rate, pregnancy rate, birth rate, parturition rate, weaning rate;  non-pregnancy rate, service period, parturition interval;  replacement rate, age at sexual maturity, etc.

     This subprogramme calculates:    4) One indicator in more than one subperiod

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? sterility

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1971-1975

     monetary units  ? Kcs

     selected indicator of animal reproduction    ? unborn calves per 100 cows

     selected indicator measure units             ? unborn calves

     price of one unit of selected indicator      ? 2000

  List data in following sequence:  subperiod name, number of diseased animals, average value of selected indicator (in measure units)  in healthy animals, in diseased animals:

     1  ? 1971,10,0,1

     2  ? 1972,9,0,1

     3  ? 1973,8,0,1

     4  ? 1974,7,0,1

     5  ? 1975,6,0,1

RESULT:

  Subperiod        Diseased      I n d i c a t o r            Total      Value of

                             Animals       Average  in               Diffe-     Loss in

                             Number     Healthy   Diseased     rence      Kcs

1971                          10             0.00        1.00               10          20000

1972                            9             0.00        1.00                 9          18000

1973                            8             0.00        1.00                 8          16000

1974                            7             0.00        1.00                 7          14000

1975                            6             0.00        1.00                 6          12000

              T o t a l  value of estimated loss =  80000 Kcs   per 100 cows

 

6.7-INPUTS BENEFIT/LOSSES IN HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS

 This programme calculates inputs' benefit/losses  1) using method I. (based on average number of healthy and diseased  animals and average inputs in healthy and diseased animals)

INPUT DATA:

  disease(s) ? mastitis

  species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows

  place, period ? Ranch S.,2002

  production input indicator ? antibiotics                    input indicator measure units ? grammes

  monetary units        ? dollars                                       price of one measure unit of input indicator       ? 5.45

  average production input (in indicator measure units) a) per one healthy animal     ? 0

                                                                                                 b) per one diseased animal    ? 62

  average number of healthy animals in the population     ? 345

  average number of diseased animals in the population    ? 162

RESULT:

      Estimated benefit due to minor inputs in 345  healthy animals =  21390 grammes of antibiotics  of value  =   116575 dollars

      Estimated loss due to major inputs in 162  diseased animals   =  10044 grammes of antibiotics  of value  =   54739 dollars

                                                

6.7-INPUTS BENEFIT/LOSSES IN HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS

 This programme calculates inputs' benefit/losses    2) using method II. (based on number of diseased animals  and average inputs in healthy and diseased animals)

INPUT DATA:

  disease(s) ? mastitis

  species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows

  place, period ? Ranch R.,2003

  production input indicator ? antibiotics                      input indicator measure units  ? grammes

  monetary units    ? dollars                                              price of one measure unit of input indicator     ? 5.45

  total number of diseased animals                        ? 162

  average production input (in indicator measure units)  per one healthy animal  ? 0

                                                                                                  per one diseased animal  ? 62

RESULT:

    Average difference of antibiotics values  between healthy and diseased animals =     62.0000  grammes   =    337.90 dollars

         Estimated total loss = 10044 grammes  of value  =   54739 dollars   

 

6.7-INPUTS BENEFIT/LOSSES IN HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS

 This programme calculates inputs' benefit/losses   3) using method III. (based on average number of all animals and  average inputs in all, healthy and diseased animals)

INPUT DATA:

  disease(s) ? general

  species, category(ies) ? pigs,10-100 kg weight

  place, period ? Czech republic,1985 (one day)

  production input indicator ? concentrated feedstuff consumption por 1 kg gain

  input indicator measure units  ? kg                             monetary units  ? Kcs

  price of one measure unit of input indicator            ? 6

  average production input (in indicator measure units):  per one animal in the given population  ? 3.52

                                                                                                   per one diseased animal  ? 4.1

                                                                                                   per one healthy animal  ? 3.3

  average total number of animals of the given population ? 3039000

RESULT:

   Estimated benefit due to minor inputs in production by healthy animals =  1762619 kg of concentrated feedstuff consumption por 1 kg gain  of value  =  10575718 Kcs

   Estimated loss due to major inputs in production by diseased animals =  668580 kg of concentrated feedstuff consumption por 1 kg gain  of value  =  4011480 Kcs

                                             

6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES

 This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:    1) losses according to animal diseases

    INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? domestic animals,all

     place, period ? Spain,1980

     type of losses ? overall

     measure units  ? 1000 pesetas

     List data, values in measure units:

     1   disease, losses value ? bovine tbc,3734

     2   disease, losses value ? brucellosis,10658

     3   disease, losses value ? bov.mastitis,18390

     4   disease, losses value ? ov/cap agalact.,3520

     5   disease, losses value ? Afr.swine fever,1996

     6   disease, losses value ? swine enz.pneum.,2875

     7   disease, losses value ? pneumoenter.bov.,2763

     8   disease, losses value ? dif.parasitosis,27465

RESULT:

     Disease(s)              L o s s e s        Proportion   Percentage

                                       Value in

                                    1000 peseta

     bovine tbc                3734.00               0.0523         5.2296

     brucellosis             1 0658.00               0.1493       14.9270

     bov.mastiti              18390.00               0.2576       25.7559

     ov/cap agalact         3520.00               0.0493         4.9299

     Afr.swine fever        1996.00               0.0280         2.7955

     swine enz.pneum.    2875.00               0.0403         4.0266

     pneumoenter.bov.  2763.00                0.0387         3.8697

     dif.parasitosis        27465.00               0.3847       38.4658

     T o t a l                   71401.00               1.0000      100.0000

 

6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES

 This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:  2) losses according to animal species

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? general

     place, period ? the whole world,1980

     type of losses ? mortality due to diseases

     measure units ? metric tons

     List data, values in measure units:

     1   species, losses value ? cattle,12736000

     2   species, losses value ? pigs,8960000

     3   species, losses value ? sheep,1500000

     4   species, losses value ? goats,516000

RESULT:

     Species                 L o s s e s      Proportion   Percentage

                                    Value in

                                  metric tons

     cattle                  12736000.00      0.5371       53.7112

     pigs                      8960000.00      0.3779       37.7868

     sheep                   1500000.00      0.0633         6.3259

     goats                     516000.00       0.0218         2.1761

     T o t a                23712000.00      1.0000      100.0000

 

6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES

 This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:   3) losses according to place

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? general mortality

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,calves

     place, period ? Czech republic,calves

     type of losses ? dead and confiscated calves

     measure units  ? calves

     List data , values in measure units:

     1   place, losses value ? Prague,465

     2   place, losses value ? Central Bohemia,9463

     3   place, losses value ? South Bohemia,11042

     4   place, losses value ? West Bohemia,8156

     5   place, losses value ? North Bohemia,4264

     6   place, losses value ? East Bohemia,9172

     7   place, losses value ? South Moravia,12129

     8   place, losses value ? North Moravia,8120

RESULT:

     Place                               L o s s e s    Proportion   Percentage

                                              Value in

                                               calves

     Prague                                465.00            0.0074         0.7403

     Central Bohemia             9463.00            0.1507       15.0658

     South Bohemia             11042.00            0.1758       17.5797

     West Bohemia                8156.00            0.1298       12.9850

     North Bohemia               4264.00            0.0679         6.7886

     East Bohemia                  9172.00            0.1460       14.6025

     South Moravia             12129.00            0.1931       19.3103

     North Moravia               8120.00            0.1293       12.9277

     T o t a l                          62811.00            1.0000      100.0000

 

6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES

 This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:   4) losses according to time

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1924-1934

     type of losses ? morbidity

     measure units  ? diseased animals

     List data, values in measure units:

     1   subperiod, losses value ? 1924,124143

     2   subperiod, losses value ? 1925,54497

     3   subperiod, losses value ? 1926,52659

     4   subperiod, losses value ? 1927,65297

     5   subperiod, losses value ? 1928,14206

     6   subperiod, losses value ? 1929,57963

     7   subperiod, losses value ? 1930,44404

     8   subperiod, losses value ? 1931,92280

     9   subperiod, losses value ? 1932,60846

     10   subperiod, losses value ? 1933,12970

     11   subperiod, losses value ? 1934,2446

RESULT:

     Subperiod               L o s s e s    Proportion   Percentage

                                       Value in

                                   Dis. animals

     1924                     124143.00            0.2134         21.3410

     1925                       54497.00            0.0937           9.3684

     1926                       52659.00            0.0905           9.0524

     1927                       65297.00            0.1122         11.2250

     1928                       14206.00            0.0244           2.4421

     1929                       57963.00            0.0996           9.9642

     1930                       44404.00            0.0763           7.6333

     1931                       92280.00            0.1586         15.8635

     1932                       60846.00            0.1046         10.4598

     1933                       12970.00            0.0223           2.2296

     1934                         2446.00            0.0042           0.4205

     T o t a l                581711.00           1.0000       100.0000

 

6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES

 This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:   3) losses according to their types

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? ruminants+pigs

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia (32 outbreaks),1959-1960

     types of losses ? due to measures within affected villages

     measure units  ? Kcs

     List data, values in measure units:

     1   loss type, loss value ? product.management,646317

     2   loss type, loss value ? in offtake,187962

     3   loss type, loss value ? in agro-activities,190330

     4   loss type, loss value ? due to pasture prohib.,145281

     5   loss type, loss value ? anim.movement proh.,43006

     6   loss type, loss value ? insemination proh.,250925

     7   loss type, loss value ? in food provision,88734

     8   loss type, loss value ? culture activ.abol.,24451

RESULT:

     Loss type                             L o s s e s    Proportion   Percentage

                                                   Value in

                                                       Kcs

     product.management        646317.00         0.4098         40.9838

     in offtake                            187962.00         0.1192          11.9189

     in agro-activities               190330.00         0.1207          12.0691

     due to pasture prohi        145281.00          0.0921           9.2125

     anim.movement proh.        43006.00          0.0273           2.7271

     insemination proh.           250925.00          0.1591         15.9115

     in food provision               88734.00          0.0563           5.6267

     culture activ.abol.              24451.00          0.0155           1.5505

     T o t a l                            1577006.00          1.0000       100.0000

 

6.9-COST OF POPULATION HEALTH MASS ACTIONS

INPUT DATA:

     action type(s) ? vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease

     place, period ? Czech republic,1960

     monetary units ? Kcs

     material or service ? FMD AO vaccine                        measure units of material or service   ? ml

     total number of actions                              ? 1966000

     average dose (consumption) of the material for one action in measure units    ? 5

     price of one measure unit of the material            ? 4

     average time needed for one action in minutes  (including preparatory activity)   ? 5

     personnel average salary per one hour                ? 10

     transport average cost for one action                ? 4

     total other costs for the given actions              ? 400000

RESULT:

         Total consumption of the used material  =    9830000     ml

         Total cost of used material                        =    39320000  Kcs

         Total time consumed                                  =    163833      hours

         Total salaries                                               =    1638333  Kcs

         Total transport cost                                   =    7864000  Kcs

         Other costs                                                  =    400000  Kcs

                               T o t a l  costs                       =    49222333  Kcs

 

6.10-ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MEASURES' COSTS

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? hog cholera                               species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     place, period ? Province R.,1987

     monetary units ? dollars

     1.total value of animals naturally dead due to disease        ? 25000

     2.total value of condemned slaughtered animals                ? 35000

     3.total value of condemned products of animal origin          ? 1200

     4.total value of lost live weight                              ? 30000

     5.total value of non-born animals                             ? 15000

     6.total value of non-produced animal products                 ? 30000

     7.total value of loss due to minor quality of animal products ?

     8.total value of feeds non-converted in animal products       ? 12000

     9.total value of loss due to trade/export limitations         ? 50000

     10.total value of compensations and subsidies                 ? 35000

     11.cost of vet. services (diagnosis,treatment,control,etc.)   ? 20000

     12.cost of veterinary material (vaccines,drugs,equipment,etc.)? 15400

     13.total cost of non-veterinary manpower and services         ? 3200

     14.total cost of transport related to epi. measures           ? 5400

     15.other total costs related to disease(s) and epi. measures  ? 7600

RESULT:

  L o s s / C o s t   T y p e                       dollars    Proportion    Percentage

  1.Naturally dead animals                      25000         0.0878         8.7781

  2.Condemnation of carcasses             35000         0.1229        12.2893

  3.Condemnation of products                1200         0.0042          0.4213

  4.Lost of live weight                             30000         0.1053        10.5337

  5.Non-born animals                              15000         0.0527          5.2669

  6.Non-produced products                   30000         0.1053        10.5337

  7.Reduction of products quality                0          0.0000         0.0000

  8.Feeds non-converted in products  12000          0.0421         4.2135

  9.Trade/export limitations                   50000          0.1756        17.5562

 10.Compensation/subsidies                35000          0.1229        12.2893

 11.Veterinary services                          20000          0.0702         7.0225

 12.Veterinary material                           15400          0.0541         5.4073

 13.Non-vet. manpower/services           3200          0.0112         1.1236

 14.Transport related measures             5400           0.0190         1.8961

 15.Others                                                 7600           0.0267         2.6685

    T o t a l   L o s s                               284800           1.0000     100.0000

 

6.11-BLANC SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE CONSEQUENCES

     This subprogramme processes data on:    1) total values of individual types of disease consequences

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? brucellosis                     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Region Y.,1978

     measure units  ? dollars

     List data - loss type , total value:

          1  ? milk loss,45540

          2  ? meat loss,34200

          3  ? sterility,127500

RESULT:

     L o s s   T y p e              Value in        Proportion  Percentage

                                                dollars

 1   milk loss                         45540.00          0.2197       21.9745

 2   meat loss                       34200.00          0.1650        16.5026

 3   sterility                        127500.00          0.6152        61.5229

     T o t a l                         207240.00          1.0000      100.0000

 

6.11-BLANC SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE CONSEQUENCES

     This subprogramme processes data on:   2) disease individual consequences based on loss average values

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? fasciolosis                              species, category(ies) ? sheep,all

     place, period ? Ranch T.,2001

     measure units  ? dollars

     List data - loss type,  units name, number of units, average value in measure units:

          1 ? mortality,animal,450,200

          2 ? condemned livers,kg,3400,3.5

          3 ? body weight lost,kg,7000,3.2

RESULT:

  Loss type                Units          Number     One unit        Total       Percentage

                                    Name              of            Value in       Loss in

                                                        Units          dollars         dollars

  mortality                  animal        450.00          200.00           90000         72.4055

  condemned liver       kg          3400.00              3.50           11900           9.5736

  body weight los       kg          7000.00               3.20           22400         18.0209

    T o t a l                                                                               124300       100.0000

 

 

         7-INVESTIGATIONS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH SITUATION

         =========================================================

 

          1-Evaluation of diagnostic method quality

         2-Indicators of animal population investigation grade

         3-Proportions of different types of diagnostic tests

         4-Infectious disease evidence and notification grades

         5-Positivity and negativity of test results

         6-Agreement between test results of two investigators

         7-Concordance grade of compared tests' results

         8-Summary table of animal disease investigations

         9-Summary table of animal disease investigation results

         10-Population/sample multi-etiological investigations

         11-Testing parasitic diseases extensity and intensity

         12-Testing infection intensity grades in animals

         13-Comparison of two tests acc. specificity/sensitivity

         14-Relationship of positively and negatively tested animals

         15-Predictive value according to Bayes' theorem

 

 

7.1-EVALUATION OF DIAGNOSTIC METHOD QUALITY

Note: Usually requiring data based on scientific experiments.

INPUT DATA:

   diagnostic method and its aim ? bovine brucellosis agglutination

   species ? cattle                                category(ies) ? all

   place ? acc.Martin et al.                 time ? 1986

                            T r u e       s t a t u s

                            affected    non-affected

                               +                       -            Totals

                         |--------------|--------------|

                 +      |     1860     |     480        |      2340

  Test Results --------------|--------------|

                 -       |     1140     |     96652    |      97792

                         |--------------|--------------|

              otals        3000          97132          100132

 

RESULT:

   Diagnostic method sensitivity            =  0.6200           =  62.0000  %

   Diagnostic method specificity            =  0.9951           =  99.5058  %

   Predictive value of true positive results         =  0.7949  =  79.4872  %

   Predictive value of true negative results         =  0.9883  =  98.8343  %

   Predictive value of false positive results        =  0.2051  =  20.5128  %

   Predictive value of false negative results        =  0.0117  =   1.1657  %

   Diagnostic method true results rate (accuracy)    =  0.9838  =  98.3821  %

   Diagnostic method false results rate (inaccuracy) =  0.0162  =   1.6179  %

   Diagnostic method efficiency index                =  0.6169

 

7.2-INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION INVESTIGATION GRADE

INPUT DATA:

     investigation objectives ? discover tbc cases in cattle

     diagnostic test ? PPD tuberculinization

     v a l u e  of diagnostic method efficiency index (in form of a proportion)  ? 0.95

     species ? cattle                   category(ies) ? all

     place ? Czech Republic     time ? 1967

     total number of animals of the given population      ? 3500000

     total number of tested animals                       ? 3200000

     total number of tests (investigations)               ? 6109595

     number of existing specifically diseased animals     ? 450000

     number of animals in specific disease foci           ? 1500000

     number of exposed specifically healthy animals  outside of foci      ? 1900000

     number of newly discovered cases (diseased animals)  ? 150000

RESULT:

          Tested animals rate                                                           =    0.9143

          Percentage of tested animals                                           =   91.4286

          Ratio of tested/diseased animals                                     =    7.1111

          Ratio of diseased/tested animals                                     =    0.1406

          Ratio of tested/intrafocal animals                                    =    2.1333

          Ratio of tested/exposed healthy animals                        =    1.0847

          Ratio of tests/population                                                  =    1.7456

          Ratio of tests/investigated animals  (retesting rate)     =    1.9092

          Ratio of tests/newly discovered cases                           =   40.7306

          Animal population investigation grade                          =    0.8686

                                               

7.3-PROPORTIONS OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS

INPUT DATA:

     testing object/objective ? animal disease control

     place ? Czech Republic (diag.laboratories)              time ? 1982

           List data:

     1  test, number of investigations ? pat.ant.,188472

     2  test, number of investigations ? pat.histol.,33195

     3  test, number of investigations ? bacteriolog.,1116395

     4  test, number of investigations ? mycolog.,67916

     5  test, number of investigations ? virolog.,519211

     6  test, number of investigations ? serolog.,952705

     7  test, number of investigations ? parasitol.,436244

     8  test, number of investigations ? anim.nutrition,41618

     9  test, number of investigations ? haematolog.,28650

     10  test, number of investigations ? chem./toxicol.,160738

     11  test, number of investigations ? food hygiene,292962

RESULT:

      Test                  Number of      Proportion     Percentage

                             investigations

    pat.ant.                  188472             0.0653           6.5319

    pat.histol.                33195             0.0115           1.1504

    bacteriolog.         1116395            0.3869         38.6912

    mycolog.                 67916             0.0235           2.3538

    virolog.                  519211             0.1799         17.9944

    serolog.                 952705             0.2482         24.8223

    parasitol.               436244             0.1512         15.1190

    anim.nutrition         41618             0.0144           1.4424

    haematolog.            28650             0.0099           0.9929

    chem./toxicol.       160738             0.0557           5.5707

    food hygiene        292962             0.1015         10.1533

    T o t a l                3838106             1.0000       100.0000

 

7.4-INFECTIOUS DISEASE EVIDENCE AND NOTIFICATION GRADES

This subprogramme calculates evidence/notification of  1) specifically infected animals

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? brucellosis (B.melitensis)                     species, category(ies) ? sheep,all

     place, time ? Region R.,1977

     total number of specifically infected animals             ? 4567

     number of clinically recognized infected animals          ? 786

     number of microbiologically recognized infected animals   ? 234

     number of serologically recognized infected animals       ? 3780

     number of allergically recognized infected animals        ? 567

     number of haematologically recognized infected animals    ?

     number of pathologically recognized infected animals      ? 234

     number of infected animals recognized by other method(s)  ?

     number of notified (reported) infected animals            ? 4213

RESULT:

     Specifically infected animals evidence/notification rates:

             Clinical evidence rate                      =    0.1721

             Microbiological evidence rate       =    0.0512

             Serological evidence rate               =    0.8277

             Allergical evidence rate                  =    0.1242

             Pathological evidence rate             =    0.0512

           Specific disease notification rate    =    0.9225

 

7.4-INFECTIOUS DISEASE EVIDENCE AND NOTIFICATION GRADES

This subprogramme calculates evidence/notification of   2) outbreaks (foci) of specific disease

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     species, category(ies) ? ruminants+pigs

     place, time ? Province T.,1987

     total number of specific disease(s) outbreaks (foci)      ? 345

     number of clinically recognized outbreaks                 ? 320

     number of microbiologically recognized outbreaks          ? 45

     number of serologically recognized outbreaks              ? 12

     number of allergically recognized outbreaks               ?

     number of haematologically recognized outbreaks           ?

     number of pathologically recognized outbreaks             ? 56

     number of outbreaks recognized by other method(s)         ?

     number of notified (reported) specific outbreaks          ? 336

RESULT:

     Specific disease outbreaks evidence/notification rates:

             Clinical evidence rate                      =    0.9275

             Microbiological evidence rate       =    0.1304

             Serological evidence rate               =    0.0348

             Pathological evidence rate             =    0.1623

     Specific disease outbreaks notification rate    =    0.9739

 

7.5-POSITIVITY AND NEGATIVITY OF INVESTIGATIONS RESULTS

Note: indeterminate = suspect, provisional, unconfirmed.

INPUT DATA:

     investigation test ? bovine brucellosis serology

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Province O.,2004

        number of tested animals                              ? 67543

        number of tested animals with positive result         ? 1030

        number of tested animals with indeterminate result    ? 890

        number of tested animals with negative result         ? 65623

        number of tests (investigations)                      ? 78634

        number of positive tests                              ? 1200

        number of indeterminate tests                         ? 1100

        number of negative tests                              ? 76334

        number of animals found healthy                       ? 63000

        number of animals found indeterminate                 ? 1000

        number of animals found diseased                      ? 5543

RESULT:

          Positively tested animals rate                          =  0.0152

          Indeterminately tested animals rate                =  0.0132

          Negatively tested animals rate                        =  0.9716

          Positive tests rate                                              =  0.0153

          Indeterminate tests rate                                    =  0.0140

          Negative tests rate                                            =  0.9708

          Rate of tested animals found healthy            =  0.9327

          Rate of tested animals found indeterminate  =  0.0148

          Rate of tested animals found diseased          =  0.0821

                                                

7.6-AGREEMENT BETWEEN TEST RESULTS OF TWO INVESTIGATORS                                                                                     (Ref.:Martin et al.)

 (comparison of results obtained in the same animals or in the same samples by two investigators - A and B)

INPUT DATA:

     objectives of investigation ? front limb lameness

     test type ? clinical                                    animals/specimens ? horses

     place, time ? Region H.,1987

     investigators A,B ? Clinician F.,Clinician O.

       number of identical negative results by A and B          ? 58

       number of results: positive by A and negative by B       ? 4

       number of results: negative by A and positive by B       ? 12

       number of identical positive results by A and by B       ? 26

RESULT:

     Total number of tested animals (specimens)         =  100

     Grade of agreement between test results  of the two investigators   =   0.8400   =  84.0000  %

     Intra-groupal correlation coefficient - kappa         =   0.6460

     Chance proportion agreement (both +)                  =    0.1140

     Chance proportion agreement (both -)                   =    0.4340

     Chance proportion agreement                                 =    0.5480

     Observed minus chance agreement                        =    0.2920

     Maximum possible agreement beyond chance level     =    0.4520

              (The result shows a limited disagreement.)

 

7.7-CONCORDANCE OF COMPARED TESTS RESULTS                                                                                                                     (Ref.: Martin et al.)

 (comparison of results obtained in the same animals  or in the same samples using two different tests - A and B)

INPUT DATA:

     investigation type ? Aujeszky disease tests                       animals/specimens ? pigs

     place, time ? District H.

     test A ? international standard

     test B ? other diagnostic method

       number of identical negative results by A and B           ? 862

       number of results:positive by A and negative by B         ? 58

       number of results:negative by A and positive by B         ? 38

       number of identical positive results by A and B           ? 42

RESULT:

     Total number of tested animals (specimens)           =   1000

     Concordance grade of results obtained  by two different tests   =   0.9040   =  90.40  %

     Intragroupal correlation coefficient - kappa            =   0.4146

     Chance proportion agreement (both +)                    =   0.0080

     Chance proportion agreement (both -)                     =   0.8280

     Chance proportion agreement                                   =   0.8360

     Observed minus chance agreement                          =   0.0680

     Maximum possible agreement beyond chance level       =   0.1640

              (The result shows a limited disagreement.)

                                              

7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:    1) investigations according to diseases/forms

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1982

     species, category(ies) ? poultry,all

     type of investigations ? serology

     measure units ? tests

         List data:

  1  disease/form, number of investigations ? Salmonellosis pullorum,701936

  2  disease/form, number of investigations ? Other salmonelloses,199199

  3  disease/form, number of investigations ? Newcastle disease,319592

  4  disease/form, number of investigations ? Mycoplasmosis,135005

RESULT:

     Disease                              Investigations   Proportion     Percentage

 1   Salmonellosis pullorum        701936            0.5178         51.7754

 2   Other salmonelloses             199199            0.1469         14.6931

 3   Newcastle disease                319592            0.2357         23.5734

 4   Mycoplasmosis                    135005            0.0996            9.9581

     T o t a l                                  1355732            1.0000        100.0000

                                         

7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:  2) investigations according to species/category(ies)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)? avian tuberculosis in mammals

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1982

     type of investigations ? simultaneous tuberculinization

     measure units ? tested animals

         List data:

  1  species/categ., number of investigations ? cattle,333376

  2  species/categ., number of investigations ? pigs,163873

  3  species/categ., number of investigations ? sheep,16635

RESULT:

     Species/category(ies)   Investigations   Proportion     Percentage

 1   cattle                                    333376             0.6487              64.8738

 2   pigs                                      163873             0.3189              31.8891

 3   sheep                                     16635             0.0324                3.2371

     T o t a l                                 513884             1.0000            100.0000

                              

7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:  3) investigations according to place/territory

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)? bovine tuberculosis

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1989

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of investigations ? simple tuberculinization

     measure units ? individual tests

         List data:

  1  subterritory, number of investigations ? Prague,16996

  2  subterritory, number of investigations ? Central Bohemia,524128

  3  subterritory, number of investigations ? South Bohemia,423099

  4  subterritory, number of investigations ? West Bohemia,406461

  5  subterritory, number of investigations ? North Bohemia,286868

  6  subterritory, number of investigations ? East Bohemia,504644

  7  subterritory, number of investigations ? South Moravia,729033

  8  subterritory, number of investigations ? North Moravia,368534

RESULT:

     Subterritory            Investigations   Proportion     Percentage

 1   Prague                             16996             0.0052            0.5214

 2   Central Bohemia          524128             0.1608          16.0787

 3   South Bohemia            423099             0.1298          12.9794

 4   West Bohemia             406461             0.1247          12.4690

 5   North Bohemia            286868             0.0880            8.8003

 6   East Bohemia               504644             0.1548          15.4810

 7   South Moravia            729033             0.2236          22.3646

 8   North Moravia            368534             0.1131          11.3055

     T o t a l                        3259763             1.0000        100.0000

                                                

7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:  4) investigations according to time series

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)? bovine tuberculosis

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1959-1969

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of investigations ? tuberculinizations(PPD on mid-neck)

     measure units ? tests

         List data:

  1  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1959,3512398

  2  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1960,3965000

  3  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1961,4244789

  4  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1962,4553510

  5  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1963,4985552

  6  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1964,5548905

  7  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1965,5884803

  8  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1966,5944433

  9  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1967,6109595

  10  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1968,5825501

  11  subperiod, number of investigations ? 1969,5274399

RESULT:

     Subperiod               Investigations  Proportion    Percentage

 1   1959                              3512398           0.0629          6.2891

 2   1960                              3965000           0.0710          7.0995

 3   1961                              4244789           0.0760          7.6005

 4   1962                              4553510           0.0815          8.1533

 5   1963                              4985552           0.0893          8.9269

 6   1964                              5548905           0.0994          9.9356

 7   1965                              5884803           0.1054        10.5370

 8   1966                              5944433           0.1064        10.6438

 9   1967                              6109595           0.1094        10.9395

 10  1968                             5825501           0.1043        10.4308

 11  1969                             5274399           0.0944          9.4441

     T o t a l                        55848884          1.0000       100.0000

                                                 

7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:  5) investigations according to their types

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s)? infectious diseases

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1982

     species, category(ies) ? domestic mammals

     measure units ? specimens

         List data:

  1  test type, number of investigations ? bacteriological,1116395

  2  test type, number of investigations ? virological,519211

  3  test type, number of investigations ? mycological,67916

  4  test type, number of investigations ? serological,952705

RESULT:

     Test type               Investigations   Proportion   Percentage

 1   bacteriological          1116395              0.4203         42.0294

 2   virological                   519211              0.1955         19.5469

 3   mycological                  67916              0.0256           2.5569

 4   serological                   952705             0.3587         35.8669

     T o t a l                       2656227              1.0000       100.0000

 

7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:  1) investigation results according to diseases/forms

INPUT DATA:

     diseases group ? major mass diseases in cattle

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1989

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of investigations ? different

     measure units ? tests

          List data:

      1  disease/form ? tuberculosis             number of investigations, positive results ? 3259763,175

      2  disease/form ? brucellosis                number of investigations, positive results ? 121282,0

      3  disease/form ? enzootic leukosis    number of investigations, positive results ? 1489861,11272

      4  disease/form ? IBR/IPV                    number of investigations, positive results ? 206742,6183

      5  disease/form ? paratuberculosis     number of investigations, positive results ? 2544,62

      6  disease/form ? fasciolosis                number of investigations, positive results ? 28495,153

      7  disease/form ? pulmonar parasitosis      number of investigations, positive results ? 22330,42

RESULT:

     Disease                         Investi-    Positive    % of Pos.  % of Total

                                            gations     Results     Results     Pos.Results

 1   tuberculosis                3259763       175           0.0054      0.9784

 2   brucellosis                    121282           0            0.0000      0.0000

 3   enzootic leukosis       1489861    11272          0.7566     63.0178

 4   IBR/IPV                         206742      6183          2.9907     34.5670

 5   paratuberculosis             2544           62          2.4371      0.3466

 6   fasciolosis                      28495         153          0.5369      0.8554

 7   pulmonar parasitosis    22330           42          0.1881      0.2348

     T o t a l                         5131017     17887          0.3486   100.0000

                                        

7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:   2) investigation results according to species/category(ies)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? avian tuberculosis in mammals

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1982

     type of investigations ? simultaneous tuberculinization

     measure units ? tests

          List data:

      1  species/category(ies) ? cattle                          number of investigations, positive results ? 333376,2510

      2  species/category(ies) ? pigs                            number of investigations, positive results ? 163873,659

      3  species/category(ies) ? sheep                         number of investigations, positive results ? 16635,0

RESULT:

     Species/category(ies)   Investi-    Positive    % of Pos.  % of Total

                                              gations     Results     Results     Pos.Results

 1   cattle                               333376        2510         0.7529        79.2048

 2   pigs                                 163873          659         0.4021        20.7952

 3   sheep                                16635              0         0.0000         0.0000

     T o t a l                            513884         3169        0.6167     100.0000

                                                

7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:     3) investigation results according to space/territory

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? hog cholera

     place, period ? Netherlands,1982-1985

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     type of investigations ? herd analysis

     measure units ? fattening pig herds

          List data:

      1  subterritory ? herds with <50 pigs                               number of investigations, positive results ? 3635,11

      2  subterritory ? herds with 50-99 pigs                            number of investigations, positive results ? 2831,12

      3  subterritory ? herds with 100-199 pigs                        number of investigations, positive results ? 3939,29

      4  subterritory ? herds with 200-499 pigs                        number of investigations, positive results ? 4317,65

      5  subterritory ? herds with 500-999 pigs                        number of investigations, positive results ? 1701,60

      6  subterritory ? herds with >1000 pigs                           number of investigations, positive results ? 615,41

RESULT:

     Subterritory                       Investi-    Positive    % of Pos.  % of Total

                                                 gations     Results     Results     Pos.Results

 1   herds with <50 pigs            3635          11           0.3026         5.0459

 2   herds with 50-99 pigs         2831          12           0.4239         5.5046

 3   herds with 100-199 pig       3939          29           0.7362       13.3028

 4   herds with 200-499 pig       4317          65           1.5057       29.8165

 5   herds with 500-999 pig       1701          60           3.5273       27.5229

 6   herds with >1000 pigs          615          41           6.6667       18.8073

     T o t a l                                17038        218           1.2795     100.0000

                                                

7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:     4) investigation results according to time series

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine brucellosis

     place, period ? Czech republic,1959-1964

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of investigations ? serology (agglutination tube test)

     measure units ? tests

          List data:

      1  subperiod ? 1959                                           number of investigations, positive results ? 1568021,6299

      2  subperiod ? 1960                                           number of investigations, positive results ? 1515000,8506

      3  subperiod ? 1961                                           number of investigations, positive results ? 1412843,1797

      4  subperiod ? 1962                                           number of investigations, positive results ? 1333487,519

      5  subperiod ? 1963                                           number of investigations, positive results ? 1226446,1013

      6  subperiod ? 1964                                           number of investigations, positive results ? 1256125,1113

RESULT:

     Subperiod             Investi-    Positive    % of Pos.  % of Total

                                    gations     Results     Results     Pos.Results

 1   1959                     1568021     6299            0.4017        32.7272

 2   1960                     1515000     8506            0.5615        44.1939

 3   1961                     1412843     1797            0.1272          9.3365

 4   1962                     1333487     519              0.0389          2.6965

 5   1963                     1226446     1013            0.0826          5.2632

 6   1964                     1256125     1113            0.0886          5.7827

     T o t a l                 8311922     19247         0.2316      100.0000

                                             

7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS

This subprogramme calculates summary tables of:     5) investigation results according to tests used

 INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? toxoplasmosis

     place, period ? abattoir Strakonice,1982-1989

     species, category(ies) ? sheep,all

          List data:

      1  test type ? Sabin-Feldman reaction                              number of investigations, positive results ? 886,484

      2  test type ? complement fixation                                     number of investigations, positive results ? 484,194

      3  test type ? microprecipitation                                        number of investigations, positive results ? 686,25

      4  test type ? isolation test                                                 number of investigations, positive results ? 786,38

RESULT:

     Test type                          Investi-    Positive    % of Pos.  % of Total

                                                gations     Results     Results     Pos.Results

 1   Sabin-Feldman reaction   886            484         54.6275      65.3171

 2   complement fixation         484            194         40.0826      26.1808

 3   microprecipitation            686              25           3.6443        3.3738

 4   isolation test                     786              38           4.8346        5.1282

     T o t a l                              2842            741         26.0732    100.0000

                                                 

7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS   OF A GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE

This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:   1) field investigations results of a given population (herd, flock)

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Ranch T.,May 2004

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     type of investigations ? mixed-field/laboratory

     criterium for positivity ? national standard

     total number of investigated animals/specimens              ? 690

          List data:

      1  disease, positive results ? bovine tubeculosis,37

      2  disease, positive results ? bovine brucellosis,13

      3  disease, positive results ? leukosis,8

      4  disease, positive results ? IBR/IPV,123

      5  disease, positive results ? mastitis,112

      6  disease, positive results ? fasciolosis,145

      7  disease, positive results ? ticks,67

RESULT:

         Disease(s)                    Number of       % of       % of Total

                                                 Positive       Positive      Positive

                                                 Results        Results       Results

    1    bovine tubeculosis          37             5.3623          7.3267

    2    bovine brucellosis           13             1.8841          2.5743

    3    leukosis                               8             1.1594          1.5842

    4    IBR/IPV                           123           17.8261        24.3564

    5    mastitis                            112           16.2319        22.1782

    6    fasciolosis                       145           21.0145        28.7129

    7    ticks                                   67             9.7101         13.2673

         T o t a l                             505                              100.0000

                                                 

7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS   OF A GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE

This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:   2) laboratory investigations results of a given set of specimens

 INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Region O., July 2004

     specimen ? aborted embryos of sheep

     type of investigations ? microbiological

     criterium for positivity ? isolation of etiol.agents

     total number of investigated animals/specimens              ? 456

          List data:

      1  disease, positive results ? Bruc.melitensis,34

      2  disease, positive results ? toxoplasmosis,123

      3  disease, positive results ? listeriosis,12

      4  disease, positive results ? vibriosis,45

RESULT:

         Disease(s)                    Number of       % of        % of Total

                                                 Positive       Positive      Positive

                                                 Results        Results       Results

    1    Bruc.melitensis                34             7.4561          15.8879

    2    toxoplasmosis                123           26.9737          57.4766

    3    listeriosis                          12             2.6316            5.6075

    4    vibriosis                            45             9.8684          21.0280

         T o t a l                             214                                100.0000

                                                  

7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS   OF A GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE

This subprogramme calculates summary tables on:  3) slaughterhouse investigations results of a given animal group

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1982

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     type of investigations ? postmortem/pat/anat.

     criterium for positivity ? macroscopic findings (abattoirs)

     total number of investigated animals/specimens              ? 5179130

          List data:

      1  disease, positive results ? avian tbc,12

      2  disease, positive results ? salmonelloses,159

      3  disease, positive results ? Aujeszky dis.,137

      4  disease, positive results ? leucosis,8

      5  disease, positive results ? respiratory inf.,1232

      6  disease, positive results ? diarrhea,453

      7  disease, positive results ? other inf.dis.,327

      8  disease, positive results ? cysticercosis,0

      9  disease, positive results ? other parasitosis,141

RESULT:

         Disease(s)                    Number of       % of        % of Total

                                                  Positive       Positive      Positive

                                                  Results        Results       Results

    1    avian tbc                            12              0.0002         0.4860

    2    salmonelloses                 159              0.0031         6.4399

    3    Aujeszky dis.                  137              0.0026         5.5488

    4    leucosis                               8              0.0002         0.3240

    5    respiratory inf.              1232              0.0238       49.8987

    6    diarrhea                            453              0.0087       18.3475

    7    other inf.dis.                    327              0.0063       13.2442

    8    cysticercosis                      0               0.0000         0.0000

    9    other parasitosis            141              0.0027         5.7108

         T o t a l                            2469                             100.0000

                                                 

7.11-TESTING PARASITIC DISEASES EXTENSITY AND INTENSITY

This subprogramme calculates the extensity (proportion of animals with specific  parasites) and intensity (average number of parasites in affected animals).

INPUT DATA:

     parasitosis ? fasciolosis

     species, category(ies) ? sheep,elder than 1 year

     place, time ? Slovakia,May  1957

     specimen, test type ? feces,coprology

     List data: subpopulation name, number of tested, positive animals, average of parasites :

        1  ? low area,51,18,25.2

        2  ? submount.,81,7,19.8

        3  ? mountains,30,15,7.8

RESULT:

 Subpopu-         Number of    Number of    EXTEN-   INTENSITY      Total             Proportion

 lation                   Tested        Animals         SITY         Average        Number of        of Total

                            Animals          with            Propor-           of                  Found          Number of

                                                 Parasites          tion         Parasites          Parasites          Parasites

 low area                  51                 18               0.3529           25.2                   454                 0.6396

 submount.              81                  7                0.0864           19.8                   139                 0.1954

 mountains              30                15                0.5000             7.8                   117                 0.1650

 T O T A L             162                40                0.2469           17.7                   709                 1.0000

                                                

7.12-TESTING INFECTION INTENSITY GRADES IN ANIMALS

This subprogramme calculates infection intensity distribution in terms of etiological agents (quantity, quality), antibodies levels, etc.

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? Fasciola hepatica (acc.M.de Lourdes/WHO/TBD/R38)

     species, category(ies) ? Homo sapiens,1986

     place, time ? Portugal communities,1986

     specimen, test type ? stool,coprology

     infection intensity grade type ? number of eggs/g feces

List grade values, number of animals:

        1  ? 0-100 eggs/g,93

        2  ? 101-200 eggs/g,32

        3  ? 201-300 eggs/g,35

        4  ? 301-400 eggs/g,18

        5  ? 401-500 eggs/g,10

        6  ? 501-800 eggs/g,13

        7  ? 801-1000 eggs/g,5

        8  ? > 1000 eggs/g,1

RESULT:

     Grade                Affected      Proportion   Percentage

                                Animals       of Total      of Total

 1   0-100 eggs/g          93            0.4493        44.9275

 2   101-200 eggs         32             0.1546        15.4589

 3   201-300 eggs         35             0.1691        16.9082

 4   301-400 eggs         18             0.0870         8.6957

 5   401-500 eggs         10             0.0483         4.8309

 6   501-800 eggs         13             0.0628         6.2802

 7   801-1000 egg           5             0.0242         2.4155

 8   > 1000 eggs/           1              0.0048         0.4831

  T o t a l                     207             1.0000     100.0000

                                                  

7.13-COMPARISON OF TWO TESTS ACCORDING THEIR SPECIFICITY AND SENSITIVITY

(applicable for any diagnostic test of any investigated phenomena, e.g. healthy or diseased animals, specimens, focal units, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     phenomenon to be detected ? disease Y.

     population (sample) ? pigs of all categories

     reference test (gold standard) ? CTF

     compared test ? ELISA

     number of positive results in both tests        ? 4750

     number of positive results in compared test  and negative in reference test ? 4900

     number of negative results in compared test  and positive in reference test ? 1900

     number of negative results in both tests        ? 88450

RESULT:

     Sensitivity ratio of compared test  to reference test = 0.7143  =  71.4286  %

     Specificity ratio of compared test  to reference test = 0.9475  =  94.7509  %

                                               

7.14-RELATIONSHIP OF POSITIVELY AND NEGATIVELY TESTED ANIMALS

INPUT DATA:

     diagnostic method ? serological test - B.melitensis

     species ? sheep                    category(ies) ? all

     place ? Province T.               time ? May 2004

     number of tested diseased animals with positive (true) results    ? 3456

     number of tested healthy animals with positive (false) results    ? 2134

     number of tested diseased animals with negative (false) results   ? 45

     number of tested healthy animals with negative (true) results     ? 5678

RESULT:

Tested animals - total, diseased, healthy, positively, negatively: 11313,  3501,  7812,  5590,  5723

         Rate of true positive animals                                =   0.6182

         Rate of false positive animals                               =   0.3818

         Rate of false negative animals                              =   0.0079

         Rate of true negative animals                               =   0.9921

         Rate of positively tested diseased animals        =   0.9871

         Rate of positively tested healthy animals          =   0.2732

         Rate of negatively tested diseased animals       =   0.0129

         Rate of negatively tested healthy animals         =   0.7268

         Rate of positively tested animals                        =   0.4941

         Rate of negatively tested animals                       =   0.5059

         Rate of tested healthy animals                            =   0.6905

         Rate of tested diseased animals                          =   0.3095

                                                

7.15-PREDICTIVE VALUE ACCORDING TO BAYES' THEOREM

INPUT DATA (numeric data as proportions):

     diagnostic method and its aim ? serology (agglut.) to detect B.brucellosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, time ? Province U.,2001

           prevalence rate                     ? 0.03

           diagnostic method specificity       ? 0.9

           diagnostic method sensitivity       ? 0.85

RESULT:

   Predictive value of positive results             =  0.2082

   Predictive value of negative results            =  0.9949

 

 

  8-SELECTED SAMPLING METHODS FOR POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS

  =====================================================================

  

     1-Random numbers for selection of representative animals/herds

       2-Sample size for detecting presence of a disease in a population

       3-Sample size for estimating prevalence in large population

       4-Sample size for estimating prevalence using confidence interval

       5-Sample size for estimating prevalence using absolute difference

       6-Sample size for estimating prevalence in finite population

       7-Sample size for detecting difference between two prevalences

       8-Sample size for estimating mean of population health phenomena - I.

       9-Sample size for estimating mean of population health phenomena - II.

       10-Sample size for detecting difference between two means

       11-Stratified sampling for population health investigations

       12-Estimating prevalence from simple and cluster random samples

       13-Probability of failure to detect diseased animals

 

                                                  

8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS

This subprogramme calculates random numbers for selection of:   1) representative animals for health/disease investigations

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     total number of sampling units to be selected  using random numbers       ? 56

     range of random numbers (1-?)                        ? 1200

RESULT:

Random numbers of sampling units:

 1163  243  624  159  1050  30  571  1142  383  924  828  1055  361  747  992

 804  560  1154  266  1150  662  1165  156  541  1195  232  823  802  447  92

 978  509  554  963  683  553  117  1139  762  1080  167  944  1176  541  212

 294  1078  637  1000  1031  1091  878  924  277  321  348

                                                

8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS

This subprogramme calculates random numbers for selection of:    2) representative groups of animals and other units for cluster sampling   (samples of herds = cluster samples of animals, samples of areas = cluster samples of herds/farms, etc.)

INPUT DATA:

     groups of units for cluster sampling             ? cattle herds

     sampling element measure units                   ? herds

     number of sampling units to be selected   using random numbers  ? 35

     range of random numbers (1-?)                    ? 1200

RESULT:

 Random numbers of sampling units:

 904  974  68  607  480  60  131  305  536  233  266  38  804  372  507  245

 959  362  303  449  52  1175  377  49  110  579  671  1174  820  712  60  4

 152  897  230

                                              

8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS

This subprogramme calculates random numbers for selection of:  3) representative units (areas, villages, ranches, farms or herds/flocks, animals) for multistage sampling

INPUT DATA:

      how many stages  for multistage sampling    ? 3

  1 . stage sampling units                                  ? areas                             how many random numbers, range (1-?)             ? 10,100

  2 . stage sampling units                                  ? farms                             how many random numbers, range (1-?)             ? 10,1000

  3 . stage sampling units                                  ? animals                         how many random numbers, range (1-?)             ? 30,10000

RESULTS:

      1 . S T A G E:  areas

                        Numbers of units to be selected:  10

                        Range of random numbers: (1 - 100 )

Random numbers: 5  36  78  66  72  42  71  48  74  42

      2 . S T A G E:  farms

                        Numbers of units to be selected:  10

                        Range of random numbers: (1 - 1000 )

Random numbers: 85  93  14  418  786  231  152  788  133  988

      3 . S T A G E:  animals

                        Numbers of units to be selected:  30

                        Range of random numbers: (1 - 10000 )

Random numbers:  6466  8638  8208  4927  1893  1199  741  9267  7149  1185  8847  8863  1431

 8948  3596  3143  9734  6206  4816  4874  1587  6609  8263  7930  9291  3804

 356  2813  4883  3112

                                

8.2-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING THE PRESENCE OF A DISEASE IN A POPULATION                                                             (Ref.: Cannon,Roe)

INPUT DATA:

Do you know total number of animals of the population,  yes(y) or no(n) ? n

     what is your best estimate of the prevalence rate  of diseased animals in the given population  ? 0.05

     how certain must you be that at least one case of the given  disease is detected - confidence level (0.9, 0.95, 0.99,etc.) ? 0.95

RESULT:

  Minimal sample size (number of representative animals selected randomly)  required for detecting the presence of a given disease  =  58

                                                

8.2-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING THE PRESENCE OF A DISEASE IN A POPULATION                                                             (Ref.: Cannon,Roe)

INPUT DATA:

Do you know total number of animals of the population,  yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     total number of animals of the population                     ? 1000

     what is your best estimate of the prevalence rate  of diseased animals in the given population  ? 0.01

     how certain must you be that at least one case of the given  disease is detected - confidence level (0.9, 0.95, 0.99,etc.) ? 0.95

RESULT:

  Minimal sample size (number of representative animals selected randomly)  required for detecting the presence of a given disease  =  259

                                                

8.3-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE IN LARGE POPULATIONS                                                        (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)

(binomial distribution - using standard error of estimated prevalence rate)

INPUT DATA:

   have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate ? y

   what is your best estimate of the prevalence rate                 ? 0.04

   upper limit of standard error of estimated prevalence rate  (maximum difference between the true prevalence rate  and your sample prevalence rate that you can tolerate)  ? 0.025

RESULT:

   Minimal sample size (number of representative animals selected randomly)  required for estimating disease prevalence rate = 61

                                                 

8.3-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE IN LARGE POPULATIONS                                                        (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)

(binomial distribution - using standard error of estimated prevalence rate)

INPUT DATA:

 have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate ? n

 upper limit of standard error of estimated prevalence rate (maximum difference between the true prevalence rate and your sample prevalence rate that you can tolerate)  ? 0.01

RESULT:

   Minimal sample size (number of representative animals selected randomly)  required for estimating disease prevalence rate = 2500

                                                  

8.4-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE USING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL                                           (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)

(binomial distribution in an infinit population)        

INPUT DATA:

   have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate   ? y

   enter your best estimate of the prevalence rate   (supposed proportion of diseased animals in the given population) !  0.04

   value of confidence interval for prevalence rate (proportion)       ? 0.05

   critical value of the confidence coefficient  (1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.96

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating disease prevalence rate = 236

                                                

8.4-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE USING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL                                         (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)

(binomial distribution in an infinit population)        

INPUT DATA:

   have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate   ? n

   value of confidence interval for prevalence rate (proportion)       ? 0.05

   critical value of the confidence coefficient  (1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 1.96

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating disease prevalence rate = 1537

                                                  

8.5-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE USING ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE                                          (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)

between estimated and true prevalence rate (binomial distribution)

INPUT DATA:

   have you(y) or not(n) a priori idea about the prevalence rate      ? y

   enter your best estimate of the prevalence rate  (supposed proportion of diseased animals in the given population) !  0.4

   tolerated difference between true and sample prevalence rates  (level of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.05

   how certain must you be that the difference between the true  and sample prevalence rate is <0.0500    i.e what is the critical value of the confidence coefficient

   (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)   ? 1.96

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating disease prevalence rate = 369

 

8.5-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE USING ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE                                          (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)

between estimated and true prevalence rate (binomial distribution)

INPUT DATA:

   have you(y) or not(n) a priori idea about the prevalence rate      ? n

   tolerated difference between true and sample prevalence rates  (level of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.02

   how certain must you be that the difference between the true and sample prevalence rate is <0.0200   i.e what is the critical value of the confidence coefficient

   (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)   ? 1.65

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating disease prevalence rate = 1702

                                                 

8.6-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE IN FINITE POPULATION                                           (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux; Cannon,Roe)

(binomial distribution) 

INPUT DATA:

total number of animals of a given population                      ? 900

have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate  ? y

estimated prevalence rate                                          ? 0.4

critical  value of the confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)   ? 1.96

tolerated difference between estimated and true prevalence rates  (level of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.05

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating disease prevalence rate = 263

                                                 

8.6-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE IN FINITE POPULATION                                           (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux; Cannon,Roe)

(binomial distribution)

INPUT DATA:

total number of animals of a given population                      ? 10000

have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the prevalence rate  ? n

critical  value of the confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)   ? 1.96

tolerated difference between estimated and true prevalence rates (level of precision required - tolerated error) ? 0.05

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating disease prevalence rate = 371

                                             

8.7-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO PREVALENCE RATES                                                                      (Ref.: Putt et al.)

(in large populations) ¨

INPUT DATA:

   estimated disease prevalence rate of the first population      ? 0.4

   estimated disease prevalence rate of the second population     ? 0.15

   critical value corresponding to statistical significance level  required ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error  probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)       ? 1.65

   critical value corresponding to the chance we are willing  to accept of failing to detect a difference of this type   ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;

   1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.)    ? 1.28

RESULT:

    For detecting the difference between two disease prevalence rates  minimal sample size of each population =  53  animals  i.e. total sample =  106  animals

                                               

8.8-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - I.                                                                                                    (Ref.: Yamane Taro)

This subprogramme calculates sample size in large (infinite) population using: 1) standard deviation of the distribution in population, sampling error  and critical value of confidence coefficient

INPUT DATA:

   estimated standard (average) deviation of the population mean     ? 0.1931

   required precision - tolerated sampling error - deviation of the sample mean in  a b s o l u t e  term    ? 0.02

   reliability - critical value of confidence coefficient  (1.65 for 90% confidence level; 1.96 for 95%; 2.58 for 99%; etc.) ? 1.96

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating population mean =  358

                                            

8.8-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - I.                                                                                (Ref.: Yamane Taro)

This subprogramme calculates sample size in large (infinite) population using:  2) coefficient of variation (dispersion), tolerated deviation of sample mean and critical value of confidence coefficient.

INPUT DATA:

   coefficient of variation                                          ? 0.1

   allowable deviation of sample mean (in terms of p r o p o r t i o n  of average)    ? 0.05

   reliability - critical value of confidence coefficient  (1.65 for 90% confidence level; 1.96 for 95%; 2.58 for 99%; etc.) ? 3

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required for estimating population mean =  36

                                                  

8.9-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - II.                                                                              (Ref.: Yamane Taro)

This subprogramme calculates sample size using absolute difference between sample and true mean, confidence coefficient and sample standard deviation

      1) when population size is known

 INPUT DATA:

    total number of animals of the given population                 ? 2000

    maximal tolerated absolute difference between  the sample mean and the true mean    ? 5

    maximum tolerated sample  standard deviation                    ? 24.5

    critical value of confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 3

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating the population mean =  195

                                               

8.9-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA - II.                                                                            (Ref.: Yamane Taro)

This subprogramme calculates sample size using absolute difference between sample and true mean, confidence coefficient and sample standard deviation

      2) when population size is unknown

INPUT DATA:

    maximal tolerated absolute difference between the sample mean and the true mean    ? 5

    maximum tolerated sample  standard deviation                    ? 24.5

    critical value of confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error  probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) ? 3

RESULT:

     Minimal sample size required  for estimating the population mean =  216

                                               

8.10-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO MEANS                                                              (Ref.: Kubankova, Hendl)

This subprogramme calculates sample size for detecting difference between two means (if the size and variance of both populations are the same):

    1) between two independent samples (populations)

 INPUT DATA:

  means difference - precision in relative term (>0 - 1 !)        ? 0.5

  critical value corresponding to statistical significance  level required:   ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability; 1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.)     or

     ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)                               ? 1.96

  critical value corresponding to the chance we are willing   to accept of failing to detect a difference of this type  ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;

     1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.)     or     ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error probability;  1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)                               ? 1.96

  population variance (square of standard deviation)               ? 2

RESULT:

   For detecting the difference between two populations means  minimal sample size of each population =  246  animals  i.e. total sample size =  492  animals

                                                

8.10-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO MEANS                                                               (Ref.: Kubankova, Hendl)

This subprogramme calculates sample size for detecting difference between two means (if the size and variance of both populations are the same):

    2) between two dependent samples (populations)

INPUT DATA:

  means difference - precision in relative term (>0 - 1 !)        ? 0.5

  critical value corresponding to statistical significance  level required:  ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;  1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.)     or

     ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error probability;   1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)                               ? 1.96

  critical value corresponding to the chance we are willing   to accept of failing to detect a difference of this type   ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of error probability;

     1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.)     or   ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error probability;   1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.)                               ? 1.96

  population variance (square of standard deviation)               ? 2

RESULT:

For detecting the difference between two populations means  minimal sample size of each population =  123  animals i.e. total sample size =  246  animals

                                               

8.11-STRATIFIED SAMPLING FOR POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS

INPUT DATA:

     investigation ? serological testing - bovine brucellosis

     place, time ? Province B.,1996

Do you know sample size in absolute  n u m b e r  of representative animals (a) or sample size  p e r c e n t a g e  of a given population (p) ? a

     sample size - number of animals (to be selected randomly)  representing a given population  ? 3200

          List data:

   1  subpopulation, number of animals ? cows,45000

   2  subpopulation, number of animals ? heifers,20000

   3  subpopulation, number of animals ? bulls/steers,15000

   4  subpopulation, number of animals ? calves,20000

RESULT:

     Subpopulation       Number   of   animals    Proportion  Percentage

       (stratum)              -----------------------------

                                      total         sampled

 1    cows                     45000          1440                 0.4500        45.0000

 2    heifers                  20000            640                 0.2000        20.0000

 3    bulls/steers         15000            480                 0.1500        15.0000

 4    calves                  20000            640                 0.2000        20.0000

      T o t a l               100000          3200                 1.0000      100.0000

                                               

8.11-STRATIFIED SAMPLING FOR POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS

INPUT DATA:

     investigation ? serological test for Aujeszky disease in pigs

     place, time ? Region T.,May 2003

Do you know sample size in absolute  n u m b e r  of representative animals (a) or sample size  p e r c e n t a g e  of a given population (p) ? p

     percentage of representative animals to be investigated        ? 5

          List data:

   1  subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm B,120

   2  subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm J.,456

   3  subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm C.,987

   4  subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm D.,9876

   5  subpopulation, number of animals ? Farm E.,2043

RESULT:

     Subpopulation       Number   of   animals    Proportion  Percentage

       (stratum)               ----------------------------

                                        total         sampled

 1    Farm B                     120             6                        0.0089        0.8901

 2    Farm J.                     456            23                       0.0338        3.3823

 3    Farm C.                    987            49                       0.0732        7.3209

 4    Farm D.                 9876           494                      0.7325       73.2532

 5    Farm E.                  2043           102                      0.1515       15.1535

      T o t a l                 13482           674                      1.0000     100.0000

                                                   

8.12-ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE FROM SIMPLE AND CLUSTER RANDOM SAMPLES                                            (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates the estimation from: 1) simple random sample 

INPUT DATA:

     disease/form ? bluetongue

     species, category(ies) ? sheep,all

     type of prevalence ? point prevalence

     place, time ? Region V.,1 July 1993

     random sample size - number  of selected animals                ? 850

     sampling fraction in form of a proportion  of selected animals  from the total population       ? 0.01

     number of diseased animals in the sample                        ? 62

RESULT:

     Prevalence of diseased animals in the sample  =  0.0729  =   7.29 %

     Standard error of the sample prevalence       =  0.0089  =   0.89 %

     Estimated true prevalence in total population  at:

     90% confidence interval lies between   5.84 %   and    8.75 %

     95% confidence interval lies between   5.55 %   and    9.03 %

     99% confidence interval lies between   5.00 %   and    9.58 %

     ( The 95 % confidence limit  =    7.2941   +-    1.7394 % )

                                                

8.12-ESTIMATING DISEASE PREVALENCE FROM SIMPLE AND CLUSTER RANDOM SAMPLES                                           (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates the estimation from:    2) cluster random sample

INPUT DATA:

     disease ? mastitis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows

     place, time ? Region Y.,May 2003

     definition of clusters (groups, herds, flocks, farms, etc.) ? herds

     total number of clusters   ? 943

     number  of clusters randomly selected       ? 11

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  1  ? 183,22

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  2  ? 92,12

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  3  ? 416,37

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  4  ? 203,23

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  5  ? 107,17

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  6  ? 388,32

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  7  ? 79,36

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  8  ? 243,29

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  9  ? 314,24

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  10  ? 83,17

     number of animals: total, diseased in cluster  11  ? 113,59

RESULT:

         Total number of animals in selected clusters      =  2221

         Number of diseased animals in selected clusters   =  308

     Prevalence of diseased animals in the sample  = 0.1387  =  13.87 %

     Standard error of sample prevalence           = 0.0293  =   2.93 %

     Estimated true prevalence in total population at:

     90 % confidence interval lies between     9.07 %   and   18.67 %

     95 % confidence interval lies between     8.13 %   and   19.60 %

     99 % confidence interval lies between     6.32 %   and   21.42 %

        ( The 95 % confidence limit  =   13.8676   +-    5.7357 % )

                                                 

8.13-PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS                                                                                       (Ref.: Cannon, Roe)

This subprogramme calculates probability of failure to detect diseased animals from an 'i n f i n i t e' population with the specific proportion of positives.  1) calculation

INPUT DATA:

type of test ? serological ivestigations of cattle on brucellosis

test sensitivity grade (in form of a proportion, i.e. >0<=1)        ? 0.8

prevalence rate of positives (in form of a proportion, i.e. >0<1)   ? 0.05

number of samples  ? 100

RESULT:

     Probability of failure to detect diseased animals

               a) without considering the test sensitivity    =  0.00592

               b) after the correction by test sensitivity    =  0.00740

                                               

8.13-PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS                                                                                       (Ref.: Cannon, Roe)

This subprogramme calculates probability of failure to detect diseased animals from an 'i n f i n i t e' population with the specific proportion of positives.

 2) prefixed data in form of a table

TABLE - PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS

(Theoretical data for test sensitivity of ideal value = 1.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Preva-    number   of   a n i m a l s   in   sample   t e s t e d

lence %   5     10      25      50       75      100     200     250    500    1000

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  1     0.951  0.904  0.778  0.605  0.471  0.366  0.134  0.081  0.007  0.000

  2     0.904  0.817  0.603  0.364  0.220  0.133  0.018  0.006  0.000

  3     0.859  0.737  0.467  0.218  0.102  0.048  0.002  0.000

  4     0.815  0.665  0.360  0.130  0.047  0.017  0.000

  5     0.774  0.599  0.277  0.077  0.021  0.006  0.000

  6     0.734  0.539  0.213  0.045  0.010  0.002  0.000

  7     0.696  0.484  0.163  0.027  0.004  0.001  0.000

  8     0.659  0.434  0.124  0.015  0.002  0.000

  9     0.624  0.389  0.095  0.009  0.001  0.000

 10     0.590  0.349  0.072  0.005  0.000

 15     0.444  0.197  0.017  0.000

 20     0.328  0.107  0.004  0.000

 25     0.237  0.056  0.001  0.000

 30     0.168  0.028  0.000

 40     0.078  0.006  0.000

 50     0.031  0.001  0.0

 

 

 

         9-SELECTED ASPECTS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMMES

         ===============================================================

 

         1-Selection of priority diseases for animal health programmes

         2-Simple model of morbidity/nidality changes' prognosis

         3-Planning/prognosis of morbidity reduction (in linear form)

         4-Planning/prognosis of morbidity reduction (in curve form)

         5-Planning/prognosis of animal population specific health recovery

         6-Animal population health/disease mass actions (incl.vaccinations)

         7-'Critical path' method in animal population health planning

         8-Distribution of animal population health programme inputs

         9-Animal population health programme/measures' coverage

         10-Planning/prognosis of reducing nidality, mortality and losses

         11-Planning/prognosis of expanding specific disease free territory

 

 

 

9.1-SELECTION OF PRIORITY DISEASES FOR ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMMES

Assessment of eligibility according to disease importance, solution feasibility and inputs availability in a given territory and period after analyzing all substantial factors  influencing strategy/measures practicability and probability of success of time-bounded programmes.

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Czechoslovakia,1959

     Number  of diseases in consideration ? 4

The scales consist of  g r a d e s   from >0 (major than 0) to 10 !

 disease No. 1 : name (up to 15 characters):      ? bov.tuberculosis

                    grades of biological, economic, public health, social importance ? 7,10,10,8

                    grades of technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability  ? 9,9

 disease No. 2 : name (up to 15 characters):      ? bov.brucellosis

                    grades of biological, economic, public health, social importance ? 5,7,9,7

                    grades of technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability  ? 7,8

 disease No. 3 : name (up to 15 characters):      ? bov.leukosis

                    grades of biological, economic, public health, social importance ? 2,5,0,2

                    grades of technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability  ? 5,3

 disease No. 4 : name (up to 15 characters):      ? bov.mastitis

                    grades of biological, economic, public health, social importance ? 4,7,7,2

                    grades of technical (solution) feasibility, inputs availability  ? 4,5

     Values of importance multiplier coefficients are fixed as follows:

              biological        = 2

              economic        = 4

              public health  = 6

              social               = 2

     Do you accept these values (y) or you will use other ones (o)? o

     Define other values (1 up to 10 !) of importance multiplier coefficients:

              biological    ? 2

              economic      ? 5

              public health ? 6

              social        ? 2

RESULT:

 Disease(s)         I m p o r t a n c e  Grades   Grades    of

                            --------------------------------   ------------------

                            biol.  eco.   public  social   feasi-    input     T O T A L

                                                health               bility     avai-        points

        -------------------------------------------------               labi-

        Multiplier    * 2     * 5      * 6       * 2                    lity

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 bov.tuberculosi  + 7    + 10   + 10     + 8        * 9    * 9                11340

 bov.brucellosis   + 5    + 7      + 9      + 7        * 7    * 8                  6328

 bov.leukosis        + 2    + 5      + 0      + 2        * 5    * 3                    495

 bov.mastitis         + 4    + 7      + 7      + 2        * 4    * 5                  1780

 

         Disease(s)          Proportion          Percentage

                                 of the total 19943  allocated points

         bov.tuberculosi      0.5686              56.8621

         bov.brucellosis       0.3173              31.7304

         bov.leukosis           0.0248                 2.4821

         bov.mastitis            0.0893                 8.9254

         T o t a l                    1.0000             100.0000

                                                 

9.2-SIMPLE MODEL OF MORBIDITY/NIDALITY CHANGES' PROGNOSIS

This programme calculates morbidity/nidality changes' prognosis based on: 1) supposed absolute numbers of diseased animals or outbreaks  (initial, new, extinct)

INPUT DATA:

Do you want to process data on diseased animals (d) or outbreaks (o) ? d

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     place ? Czech Republic

     period ? 1959-1968

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     number of diseased animals at the beginning   ? 497006

     List data:

 1  subperiod ? 1959           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 357903,226633

 2  subperiod ? 1960           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 191842,189280

 3  subperiod ? 1961           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 117275,182454

 4  subperiod ? 1962           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 71476,180566

 5  subperiod ? 1963           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 57073,163885

 6  subperiod ? 1964           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 52832,153305

 7  subperiod ? 1965           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 43215,134232

 8  subperiod ? 1966           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 21285,99543

 9  subperiod ? 1967           supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 14603,75135

 10  subperiod ? 1968         supposed new, extinct diseased animals ? 5243,24720

RESULT:

    Supposed   future   numbers   of  diseased animals

    ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subperiod           New            Extinct        FINAL

 1   1959                357903          226633         628276

 2   1960                191842          189280         630838

 3   1961                117275          182454         565659

 4   1962                  71476          180566         456569

 5   1963                  57073          163885         349757

 6   1964                  52832          153305         249284

 7   1965                  43215          134232         158267

 8   1966                  21285            99543           80009

 9   1967                  14603            75135           19477

 10  1968                   5243            24720                   0

 

9.2-SIMPLE MODEL OF MORBIDITY/NIDALITY CHANGES' PROGNOSIS

This programme calculates morbidity/nidality changes' prognosis based on:  2) supposed relative numbers of morbidity/nidality rates - initial prevalence,

    incidence, extinction rates

INPUT DATA:

Do you want to process data on diseased animals (d) or outbreaks (o) ? d

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     place ? Czech Republic

     period ? 1960-1968

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     initial point prevalence rate   ? 0.21

     List data:

 1  subperiod ? 1960       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.065,0.065

 2  subperiod ? 1961       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.04,0.06

 3  subperiod ? 1962       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.025,0.06

 4  subperiod ? 1963       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.02,0.055

 5  subperiod ? 1964       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.018,0.05

 6  subperiod ? 1965       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.015,0.045

 7  subperiod ? 1966       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.012,0.033

 8  subperiod ? 1967       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.005,0.02

 9  subperiod ? 1968       supposed incidence, extinction rates ? 0.002,0.01

RESULT:

    Supposed   future   specific  disease   morbidity   rates

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------

    Subperiod      Incidence    Extinction     Final

                                Rate             Rate           Prevalence

                                                                        Rate

 1   1960               0.0650         0.0650         0.2100

 2   1961               0.0400         0.0600         0.1900

 3   1962               0.0250         0.0600         0.1550

 4   1963               0.0200         0.0550         0.1200

 5   1964               0.0180         0.0500         0.0880

 6   1965               0.0150         0.0450         0.0580

 7   1966               0.0120         0.0330         0.0370

 8   1967               0.0050         0.0200         0.0220

 9   1968               0.0020         0.0100         0.0140

 

9.3-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF MORBIDITY REDUCTION (IN LINEAR FORM)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     place, period ? Czech republic,1960-1968

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     time measure unit ? year

     number of diseased animals at the beginning of the programme ? 628276

     r e d u c e d   number of diseased animals  planned for the end of the programme       ? 0

     duration of the programme in time measure units   ? 9

RESULT:

     Difference between initial and final number  of diseased animals  =  628276

     Average number of diseased to be reduced during one year  =  69808    i.e.  average percentage of initial number             = 11.1111 %

              average percentage of the difference between  initial and final numbers     = 11.1111 %

Do you want to calculate partial data, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

  Do you want the number of diseased animals after a given period (p) or the time with a given number of diseased animals (a) ? p

     number of time measure units of a given partial period      ? 6

     Number of diseased animals reduced during  the first   6.00 time units =  418851  i.e. there should be still a rest of circa  209425 diseased animals.

RESULT:

              End of          Supposed         Percentage

              year              Number of        of Initial

                                    Diseased           Total

                                   Animals             Number

               1                    558467             88.8889

               2                    488659             77.7778

               3                    418850             66.6667

               4                    349042             55.5556

               5                    279233             44.4444

               6                    209425             33.3333

               7                    139616             22.2222

               8                    69808              11.1111

               9                    0                        0.0000

 

9.4-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF MORBIDITY REDUCTION (IN CURVE FORM)

(decrease of diseased animals number in regular curve form)

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place ? Czech Republic

     period ? 1960-1968

     time measure unit  ? year

     number of diseased animals at the beginning of the programme      ? 628276

     r e d u c e d  number of diseased animals  planned for the end of the programme      ? 0

     planned  p e r i o d  for objective achievement  in time measure units    ? 9

RESULT:

         Time           Supposed Number of       % of Initial

   End of year     Diseased Animals                Value

          1                 609331                                 96.9846

          2                 554781                                 88.3022

          3                 471207                                 75.0000

          4                 368687                                 58.6825

          5                 259588                                 41.3176

          6                 157069                                 25.0001

          7                 73494                                   11.6978

          8                 18945                                   3.0154

          9                 0                                           0.0000

                                                   

9.5-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF ANIMAL POPULATION SPECIFIC HEALTH RECOVERY

(number increase of healthy animals)

     This programme calculates the plans for health recovery – objectives   in terms of numbers of specific disease(s) free animals   1) in linear form

INPUT DATA:

     specific health ? bovine tuberculosis free

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1968

     time measure unit  ? year

     number of healthy animals  at the beginning of the programme   ? 260063

     i n c r e a s e d   number of healthy animals  planned for the end of the programme   ? 3030000

     planned   p e r i o d   for objective achievement   in time measure units   ? 9

RESULT:

         Time        Supposed Number of       Percentage

    End of year   Healthy Animals          of Final Number

          1                        567833                         18.7404

          2                        875604                         28.8978

          3                      1183375                         39.0553

          4                      1491146                         49.2127

          5                      1798916                         59.3702

          6                      2106687                         69.5276

          7                      2414458                         79.6851

          8                      2722229                         89.8425

          9                      3030000                       100.0000

                                                   

9.5-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF ANIMAL POPULATION SPECIFIC HEALTH RECOVERY

(number increase of healthy animals)

     This programme calculates the plans for health recovery - objectives  in terms of numbers of specific disease(s) free animals   2) in curve form

INPUT DATA:

     specific health ? bovine tuberculosis free

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1968

     time measure unit  ? semester

     number of healthy animals  at the beginning of the programme   ? 260063

     i n c r e a s e d   number of healthy animals  planned for the end of the programme   ? 3030000

     planned   p e r i o d   for objective achievement   in time measure units  ? 18

Healthy animals' initial number:  260063                            Final number:  3030000

RESULT:

         Time                Supposed Number of       Percentage

    End of semester     Healthy Animals          of Final Number

          1                                   281104                  9.2774

          2                                   343587                 11.3395

          3                                   445614                 14.7067

          4                                   584084                 19.2767

          5                                   754791                 24.9106

          6                                   952547                 31.4372

          7                                 1171345                 38.6582

          8                                 1404534                 46.3543

          9                                 1645032                 54.2915

          10                               1885529                 62.2287

          11                               2118718                 69.9247

          12                               2337516                 77.1457

          13                               2535272                 83.6723

          14                               2705979                 89.3062

          15                               2844449                 93.8762

          16                               2946476                 97.2434

          17                               3008959                 99.3056

          18                               3030000              100.0000

                                                

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates:   summary tables of:  1) actions according to diseases

INPUT DATA:

     place (territory), period ? Czech Republic,1982

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     type of animal health actions ? vaccinations

     measure units ? vaccinations

         List data:

     1    disease, number of actions ? foot-and-mouth d.,730393

     2    disease, number of actions ? hog cholera,209181

     3    disease, number of actions ? hog chol+erysip.,5051495

     4    disease, number of actions ? erysipelas-ads-vac.,877908

     5    disease, number of actions ? erysipelas-avir.v.,1501241

     6    disease, number of actions ? gastroenteritis,64896

     7    disease, number of actions ? Aujeszky disease,357818

     8    disease, number of actions ? coli-enterits,606231

RESULT:

     Disease                         Number of     Proportion      Percentage

                                             Actions       of total number of actions

 1   foot-and-mouth d.       730393             0.0777           7.7708

 2   hog cholera                   209181            0.0223            2.2255

 3   hog chol+erysip.        5051495            0.5374          53.7441

 4   erysipelas-ads-vac.     877908             0.0934           9.3403

 5   erysipelas-avir.v.       1501241             0.1597         15.9721

 6   gastroenteritis                64896             0.0069           0.6904

 7   Aujeszky disease        357818              0.0381           3.8069

 8   coli-enterits                  606231              0.0645           6.4498

     T o t a l                         9399163             1.0000        100.0000

                                               

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates:   summary tables of:  2) actions according to species

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     place (territory), period ? Czech Republic,1982

     type of animal health actions ? prophylactic vaccinations

     measure units ? vaccinations

         List data:

     1    species, number of actions ? cattle,3850553

     2    species, number of actions ? pigs,730393

     3    species, number of actions ? sheep,69739

RESULT:

     Species                 Number of        Proportion      Percentage

                                     Actions          of total number of actions

 1   cattle                     3850553                 0.8280          82.7954

 2   pigs                         730393                 0.1571          15.7051

 3   sheep                        69739                 0.0150            1.4995

     T o t a l                  4650685                 1.0000        100.0000

                                                  

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates: summary tables of:   3) actions according to space/territory

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? fasciolosis

     place (territory), period ? Czech republic,1982

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of animal health actions ? deworming

     measure units ? deworming applications

         List data:

     1    subterritory, number of actions ? Central Bohemia,0

     2    subterritory, number of actions ? South Bohemia,8134

     3    subterritory, number of actions ? West Bohemia,1491

     4    subterritory, number of actions ? North Bohemia,8178

     5    subterritory, number of actions ? East Bohemia,2583

     6    subterritory, number of actions ? South Moravia,1685

     7    subterritory, number of actions ? North Moravia,19962

RESULT:

     Subterritory            Number of        Proportion      Percentage

                                        Actions         of total number of actions

 1   Central Bohemia               0                  0.0000            0.0000

 2   South Bohemia           8134                  0.1935          19.3515

 3   West Bohemia            1491                  0.0355            3.5472

 4   North Bohemia           8178                  0.1946          19.4561

 5   East Bohemia              2583                  0.0615            6.1452

 6   South Moravia           1685                  0.0401            4.0088

 7   North Moravia         19962                  0.4749          47.4913

     T o t a l                       42033                  1.0000        100.0000

                                                  

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates:   summary tables of:   4) actions according to time series

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     place (territory), period ? Czech Republic,1971-1975

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     type of animal health actions ? prophylactic vaccinations

     measure units ? vaccinations

         List data:

     1    subperiod, number of actions ? 1971,1499179

     2    subperiod, number of actions ? 1972,1902024

     3    subperiod, number of actions ? 1973,4678072

     4    subperiod, number of actions ? 1974,3318301

     5    subperiod, number of actions ? 1975,3054610

RESULT:

     Subperiod         Number of       Proportion      Percentage

                                  Actions          of total number of actions

 1   1971                    1499179            0.1037          10.3734

 2   1972                    1902024            0.1316          13.1608

 3   1973                    4678072            0.3237          32.3693

 4   1974                    3318301            0.2296          22.9605

 5   1975                    3054610            0.2114          21.1360

     T o t a l              14452186           1.0000         100.0000

                                                   

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates:   summary tables of:     5) actions according to their types

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? pulmonary helminthiasis

     place (territory), period ? Czech republic,1982

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     measure units ? applications

         List data:

     1    action type, number of actions ? deworming,21071

     2    action type, number of actions ? vaccinations,3850

RESULT:

     Action type             Number of        Proportion      Percentage

                                        Actions          of total number of actions

 1   deworming               21071               0.8455          84.5512

 2   vaccinations              3850               0.1545          15.4488

     T o t a l                       24921              1.0000        100.0000

                                                 

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates:  relative indicators' values related to:    6) mass vaccinations

INPUT DATA:

     type of specific vaccination ? against brucellosis (B.melitensis)

     species, category(ies) ? sheep,females

     place, period ? Province C.,1998

     number of animals of the given population          ? 700000

     number of specifically diseased animals            ? 1500

     number of animals in specific foci                 ? 6000

     number of animals in threatened zones              ? 70000

     number of vaccinated animals                       ? 60000

     number of vaccinations in the given period         ? 80000

     grade of vaccine immunization effect (>0 - 1)      ? 0.8

RESULT:

     Proportion of vaccinated animals in the given population    =   0.0857   i.e. in percentage    =   8.5714

     Ratio of vaccinated/diseased animals                     =  40.0000

     Ratio of vaccinated/intrafocal animals                   =  10.0000

     Ratio of vaccinated/threatened zones animals             =   0.8571

     Ratio of vaccinated/intrafocal+threat. zones animals     =   0.7895

     Grade of vaccination repetitions in the given period        =   1.3333

     Grade of supposed population postvaccination immunity       =   0.0686

 

  Do you want to estimate the grade of population immunity after certain time  in relation to regular population replacement, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

INPUT DATA:

     number of vaccinated animals at the beginning  of the evaluated period      ? 39800

     regular continuing replacement period in days              ? 400

     period between the initial and evaluation moments in days  (must be shorter than the regular replacement period !) ? 180

RESULT:

  At the moment of evaluation about 21890 animals still remain  from the initial number of 39800 vaccinated animals.

  If we take into consideration 0.8000 grade of supposed postvaccination     immunity, then we could estimate 17512 specifically immune animals    representing about  44.00 % of initially vaccinated animals.

                                                  

9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)

This subprogramme calculates:  relative indicators' values related to:  7) mass treatments

INPUT DATA:

     specific animal health actions ? fasciolosis deworming

     species, category(ies) ? sheep,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1982

     number of animals of the given population         ? 909018

     number of specifically diseased animals           ? 295000

     number of animals in specific foci                ? 598000

     number of animals in threatened zones             ? 798000

     number of treated animals                         ? 303000

     number of treatment actions in a given period     ? 1087100

RESULT:

     Proportion of treated animals                             =   0.3333      i.e. in percentage  =  33.3327

     Ratio of treated/diseased animals                         =   1.0271

     Ratio of treated/intrafocal animals                       =   0.5067

     Ratio of treated/threatened zones animals                 =   0.3797

     Ratio of treated/intrafocal+threat. zones animals         =   0.2170

     Grade of treatment repetitions during the given period    =   3.5878

                                                 

9.7-'CRITICAL PATH' METHOD IN ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PLANNING                                                      (Ref.: Lon Poole, adapted by author)

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? investigations of poultry salmonellosis

     place ? Region U.

     period ? January-February 2003

     time measure units ? days

     monetary units  ? dollars

     how many activities  does the network (or plannig table) contain ? 12

Key data  in following order for each activity:   initial node number, end node number (must be major than initial – previous    node number !), duration (in time units), cost

         activity No 1 ? 1,2,2,300

         activity No 2 ? 1,3,3,400

         activity No 3 ? 1,4,3.5,490

         activity No 4 ? 2,5,36,1250

         activity No 5 ? 3,6,48,3200

         activity No 6 ? 4,7,48,1250

         activity No 7 ? 5,8,3,400

         activity No 8 ? 6,11,5,350

         activity No 9 ? 7,10,2,300

         activity No 10 ? 8,9,16,90

         activity No 11 ? 9,11,4,52

         activity No 12 ? 10,11,2,30

RESULT:

Activi- N   o   d   e     T i m e  unit   Duration   Path       Costs

ty          Initial End       Start   End      days                      dollars

  1             1       2              0       2            2          critical        300

  2             1       3              0       8            3            5 res         400

  3             1       4              0       9           3.5         5.5 res       490

  4             2       5              2       38         36         critical      1250

  5             3       6              3       56         48           5 res       3200

  6             4       7             3.5     57         48          5.5 res     1250

  7             5       8             38      41           3          critical       400

  8             6       11           51      61           5           5 res         350

  9             7       10          51.5    59           2          5.5 res       300

  10           8       9            41       57         16         critical         90

  11           9       11          57       61           4         critical         52

  12          10      11         53.5     61           2          5.5 res        30

          Duration of critical path  =  61 days

          Total costs                =  8112 dollars

   Note: 'res' means time reserve.

 

9.8-DISTRIBUTION OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME INPUTS

Input: staff, material (equipment, vaccines, drugs, DDD means, etc), money, etc.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, time ? CzechRepublic,1966

     input type, input measure units ? money for compensation of slaughtered cattle,Kcs

     criterion for input distribution ? number of tbc cattle

     total quantity of the input units for distribution ? 95000000

  List data:

     part  1 : name, number of animals ? Prague,73

     part  2 : name, number of animals ? Central Bohemia,51830

     part  3 : name, number of animals ? South Bohemia,18827

     part  4 : name, number of animals ? West Bohemia,25895

     part  5 : name, number of animals ? North Bohemia,32650

     part  6 : name, number of animals ? East Bohemia,7206

     part  7 : name, number of animals ? South Moravia,5524

     part  8 : name, number of animals ? North Moravia,16262

RESULT:

                                              D i s t r i b u t i o n   s h a r e s

     Part                           Number of     Percentage    Absolute value

                                         animals         of total           in input units

 1   Prague                                73              0.05                 43818

 2   Central Bohemia         51830            32.75           31111034

 3   South Bohemia           18827            11.90           11300934

 4   West Bohemia            25895            16.36           15543512

 5   North Bohemia           32650            20.63           19598212

 6   East Bohemia                7206              4.55             4325412

 7   South Moravia             5524              3.49             3315789

 8   North Moravia           16262            10.28             9761296

     T o t a l                       158267          100.00           95000000

                                                 

9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE

This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage   (control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of:   1) animal population

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? control of foot-and-mouth disease

     epi. risk (disease) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     epi. measures ? prophylactic vaccinations

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,elder than 3 months

     place, period ? Province K.,1970

     total number of animals                                 ? 119000

     number of animals at epi. risk                          ? 32100

     number of animals under epi. measures                   ? 19800

     number of animals in specific disease foci              ? 2980

     number of treated animals                               ? 9670

     number of diseased animals                              ? 2130

     number of treated diseased animals                      ? 510

RESULT:

        Proportion of animals at epi. risk                              =   0.2697

        Proportion of animals under epi. measures             =   0.1664

        Ratio of animals at epi. risk / under measures         =   1.6212

        Ratio of animals under epi. measures / at risk         =   0.6168

        Proportion of treated animals                                    =   0.0813

        Proportion of treated from diseased animals           =   0.2394

        Ratio of animals under measures / intrafocal          =   6.6443

        Ratio of animals intrafocal / under measures          =   0.1505

                                               

9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE

This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of:  2) herds/farms 

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? sheep brucellosis control

     epi. risk (disease) ? Brucella melitensis

     epi. measures ? prophylactic vaccinations

     species, category(ies) ? sheep,females

     place, period ? Province T.,1976

     total number of herds (farms)                           ? 3520

     number of herds (farms) at epi. risk                    ? 1230

     number of herds (farms) under epi. measures             ? 79

RESULT:

        Proportion of herds at epi. risk                              =   0.3494

        Proportion of herds under epi. measures             =   0.0224

        Ratio of herds at epi. risk / under measures         =  15.5696

        Ratio of herds under epi. measures / at risk         =   0.0642

                                                 

9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE

This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of:   3) territory

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? foot-and-mouth protection

     epi. risk (disease) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     epi. measures ? vaccinations

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Province O.,1973

     surface measure units                                   ? km2

     total evaluated territory (in surface units)            ? 12400

     territory at epi. risk (in surface units)               ? 8530

     territory under epi. measures (in surface units)        ? 5640

RESULT:

        Proportion of territory at epi. risk            =   0.6879

        Proportion of territory under epi. measures     =   0.4548

        Ratio territory at epi. risk / under measures   =   1.5124

        Ratio territory under epi. measures / at risk   =   0.6612

                                                

9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE

This subprogramme calculates the programme/measures' coverage (control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of:   4) time

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? preventive measures in cattle population

     epi. risk (disease) ? foot-and-mouth disease

     epi. measures ? isolation of affected zones

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Country C.,1978

     time measure units ? weeks

     total evaluated period (in time units)                  ? 52

     duration of epi. measures (in time units)               ? 35

RESULT:

        Proportion of time period under epi. measures   =    0.6731

        Ratio time period with/without epi. measures     =    2.0588

        Ratio time period without/with epi. measures     =    0.4857

                                                 

9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES

This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and losses due to diseases   1) in  linear form

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia (coop+state sector),1.1.1960

     Do you want to plan the reduction of nidality (f),   mortality (m) or losses (l) ? f

     type of nidality (foci)  ? affected ranches

     time measure unit       ? year

     number of foci at the beginning of the programme ? 13078

     r e d u c e d   number of foci planned for the end of the programme   ? 0

     planned period for objective achievement  in time measure units    ? 9

RESULT:

         Time           Supposed Number          Percentage

 End of  year               of foci                  of Initial Number

          (start)                 13078                         100.0000

     1                               11625                          88.8889

     2                               10172                          77.7778

     3                                 8719                          66.6667

     4                                 7266                          55.5556

     5                                 5812                          44.4444

     6                                 4359                          33.3333

     7                                 2906                          22.2222

     8                                 1453                          11.1111

     9                                       0                            0.0000   

 

9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES

This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and losses due to diseases   2) in curve form

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? bovine tuberculosis

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia (coop+state sector),1.1.1960-1.1.1969

     Do you want to plan the reduction of nidality (f),  mortality (m) or losses (l) ? f

     type of nidality (foci)  ? affected ranches

     time measure unit     ? year

     number of foci  at the beginning of the programme ? 13078

     r e d u c e d   number of foci planned for the end of the programme   ? 0

     planned period for objective achievement  in time measure units    ? 9

RESULT:

     Time           Supposed Number     Percentage

 of  year                   of foci               of Initial Number

      (start)                 13078                   100.0000

 1                               12684                    96.9846

 2                               11548                    88.3022

 3                                 9809                    75.0000

 4                                 7674                    58.6825

 5                                 5404                    41.3176

 6                                 3270                    25.0001

 7                                 1530                    11.6978

 8                                   394                      3.0154

 9                                       0                      0.0000

                                                  

9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES

This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and losses due to diseases   2) in curve form

INPUT DATA:

     disease(s) ? all

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,calves

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1976-1980

     Do you want to plan the reduction of nidality (f),  mortality (m) or losses (l) ? l

     type of losses  ? premature culling

     losses measure units             ? cases

     time measure unit                   ? semester

     number of losses in cases at the beginning of the programme ? 129673

     r e d u c e d   losses in cases  planned for the end of the programme   ? 75000

     planned period for objective achievement  in time measure units    ? 8

RESULT:

         Time           Supposed Number       Percentage

 End of  semester       of cases            of Initial Number

          (start)                  129673                  100.0000

     1                                127592                   98.3953

     2                                121666                   93.8255

     3                                112798                   86.9863

     4                                102337                   78.9189

     5                                  91875                   70.8515

     6                                  83007                   64.0123

     7                                  77081                   59.4425

     8                                  75000                   57.8378

                                                 

9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY

This programme calculates the plans or prognoses for specific disease free territory expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches, etc.)   1) in  linear form

INPUT DATA:

     specific health ? bovine tuberculosis free

     species ? cattle

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1965

     Do you want to plan in terms of territory surface (t), herds (h),   farms (f), ranches (r), districts (d), regions (g) or zones (z)  ? t

     type of territory ? national

     territory surface measure units ? km2

     time measure unit ? semester

     number of disease free km2  at the beginning of the programme     ? 35000

     i n c r e a s e d   number of disease free km2  planned for the end of the programme   ? 74000

     planned period for objective achievement  in time measure units   ? 10

RESULT:

         Time             Supposed Number   Percentage

End of semester    of Disease Free     of Final Number

                                         km2

     (start)                       35000                 47.2973

     1                               38900                  52.5676

     2                               42800                  57.8378

     3                               46700                  63.1081

     4                               50600                  68.3784

     5                               54500                  73.6486

     6                               58400                  78.9189

     7                               62300                  84.1892

     8                               66200                  89.4595

     9                               70100                  94.7297

     10                             74000                100.0000

                                                  

9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY

This programme calculates the plans or prognoses for specific disease free territory expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches, etc.)  2) in  curve form

INPUT DATA:

     specific health ? bovine brucellosis free

     species ? cattle

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1.7.1960-1.1.1965

     Do you want to plan in terms of territory surface (t), herds (h),  farms (f), ranches (r), districts (d), regions (g) or zones (z)  ? g

     type of regions   ? administrative

     time measure unit ? semester

     number of disease free regions  at the beginning of the programme     ? 57

     i n c r e a s e d   number of disease free regions  planned for the end of the programme   ? 109

     planned period for objective achievement  in time measure units   ? 9

RESULT:

         Time           Supposed Number     Percentage

End of semester     of Disease Free      of Final Number

                                     regions

     (start)                          57                     52.2936

     1                                  59                      53.7321

     2                                  63                      57.8742

     3                                  70                      64.2202

     4                                  78                      72.0047

     5                                  88                      80.2889

     6                                  96                      88.0734

     7                                103                      94.4194

     8                                107                      98.5615

     9                                109                    100.000

 

 

 

         10-COST AND EFFICIENCY OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMMES

         ==================================================================

            

         1-Simple indicators of economic benefit/cost analysis

         2-Simple absolute economic benefit of animal health programme

         3-Biological cost/effectiveness of animal health programme

         4-Public health cost/effectiveness of animal health programme

         5-Production cost/effectiveness of animal health programme

         6-Effectiveness of prophylactic measures and recovery rates

         7-Final situation in populations with and without programme

         8-Consumption and cost of vaccines, drugs and other substances

         9-Programme benefit/cost ratio in discounted monetary values

         10-Programme benefit/cost ratio in cumulative monetary values

         11-Economic effect after specific animal disease eradication

         12-Public health effect of specific zoonosis eradication

         13-Biological effect of specific animal disease eradication

         14-Implementation of animal population health programme

  

    

10.1-SIMPLE INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC BENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS  OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech republic,1959-1970

     monetary units ? million Kcs

     number of data in pairs  - cost/benefit ? 11

     List data:

   1  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1959,90,10

   2  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1960,144,100

   3  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1961,182,200

   4  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1962,172,300

   5  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1963,171,400

   6  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1964,168,500

   7  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1965,138,600

   8  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1966,130,750

   9  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1967,181,900

   10  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1968,112,1039

   11  pair name, total cost, total benefit ? 1969,20,1039

RESULT:

Total cost:  1508 million Kcs          Total benefit:  5838 million Kcs

 

     Simple absolute efficiency (benefit)          =    4330 million Kcs

     Benefit/cost ratio (relative efficiency)       =    3.8714   =  1 :  0.2583

     Cost/benefit ratio                                          =    0.2583   =  1 :  3.8714

 

10.2-SIMPLE ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Applicable only when the situation has been improved ! As the phenomena can be beside animal health/disease indicators, also relevant public health, economic,

biological, ecological and social indicators relevant to animal health.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1970

     number of subperiods ? 11

     phenomenon ? tbc free cattle

     measure units ? million Kcs

     The calculation, is it based on health benefit (positive) data (p)  or on losses (negative) data (n) ? p

     values of benefit of population health in pair :

                                         initial (m i n o r) ? 100

                                         final (m a j o r)   ? 1039

RESULT:

     Health increase benefit due to the programme  =  939 million Kcs  i.e. average per subperiod =  85 million Kcs   i.e. total increase by  =   90.3754 %

             Subperiod            Supposed         Percentage

                                              Value              of Maximum

                                           million Kcs             Value

                 (start)                     100                   9.6246

                 1                              185                 17.8406

                 2                              270                 26.0565

                 3                              356                 34.2725

                 4                              441                 42.4884

                 5                              526                 50.7044

                 6                              612                 58.9203

                 7                              697                 67.1362

                 8                              782                 75.3522

                 9                              868                 83.5681

                 10                            953                 91.7841

                 11                          1039               100.0000

                                             

10.2-SIMPLE ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Applicable only when the situation has been improved ! As the phenomena can be beside animal health/disease indicators, also relevant public health, economic,

biological, ecological and social indicators relevant to animal health.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech republic,1960-1970

     number of subperiods ? 11

     phenomenon ? losses due to tbc cattle

     measure units ? million Kcs

     The calculation, is it based on health benefit (positive) data (p) or on losses (negative) data (n) ? n

     values of losses caused by morbidity in pair :

                                         initial (m a j o r) ? 1039

                                         final (m i n o r)   ? 10

RESULT:

     Disease losses reduction benefit  due to the programme =  1029 million Kcs  i.e. average per subperiod =  94 million Kcs   i.e. total decrease by  =   99.0375 %

 

              Subperiod            Supposed       Percentage

                                              Value            of Maximum

                                          million Kcs          Value

                 (start)                     10                   0.9625

                 1                            103                   9.9659

                 2                            197                 18.9693

                 3                            290                 27.9727

                 4                            384                 36.9761

                 5                            477                 45.9795

                 6                            571                 54.9829

                 7                            664                 63.9863

                 8                            758                 72.9898

                 9                            851                 81.9932

                 10                          945                 90.9966

                 11                        1039               100.0000

                                               

10.3-BIOLOGICAL COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Desirable changes in: animal population size/structure, health, morbidity, mortality, nidality, vectors/reservoirs occurrence, other disease sources, etiological agents and their transmission, ecological conditions, territorial distribution, population/territory at risk, etc.

Applicable only when the  s i t u a t i o n   h a s  b e e n   i m p r o v e d !

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1959-1968

     biological phenomenon ? increasing tbc free population

     biological phenomenon measure units ? tbc free cattle

     input (cost) measure units          ? Kcs

                          total cost (input) of the programme ? 950000000

     Is the biological phenomenon desirable - positive (p),   i.e. with  m a j o r (!!) final value

                       or     not desirable - negative (n),   i.e. with  m i n o r (!!) final value                ? p

     number of biological phenomenon measure units

                                 at the programme beginning   ? 260063

                                 at the programme end         ? 3030000

RESULT:

     Difference between the initial and final values  of the biological phenomenon =  2769937 tbc free cattle

     Change of biological phenomenon total value by every biological unit  costs in average      342.9681  Kcs

     Theoretically, for every input unit the total value  of the biological phenomenon can be changed in average  by   0.00291572  tbc free cattle

 

10.3-BIOLOGICAL COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Desirable changes in: animal population size/structure, health, morbidity, mortality, nidality, vectors/reservoirs occurrence, other disease sources, etiological agents and their transmission, ecological conditions, territorial distribution, population/territory at risk, etc.

Applicable only when the  s i t u a t i o n   h a s  b e e n   i m p r o v e d !

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech republic,1959-1968

     biological phenomenon ? tbc cattle population

     biological phenomenon measure units ? tbc cattle heads

     input (cost) measure units          ? Kcs

                          total cost (input) of the programme ? 950000000

     Is the biological phenomenon desirable - positive (p),   i.e. with  m a j o r (!!) final value

                       or     not desirable - negative (n),  i.e. with  m i n o r (!!) final value                ? n

     number of biological phenomenon measure units   at the programme beginning   ? 628276

                                                                                               at the programme end         ? 0

RESULT:

     Difference between the initial and final values  of the biological phenomenon = -628276 tbc cattle heads

     Change of biological phenomenon total value by every biological unit costs in average     1512.0743  Kcs

     Theoretically, for every input unit the total value  of the biological phenomenon can be changed in average   by  -0.00066134  tbc cattle heads

                                                

10.4-PUBLIC HEALTH COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Desirable changes in human population in terms: of zoonoses' risk grade, zoonoses incidence, prevalence, nidality, mortality, invalidity, territorial distribution, cost of treatment, etc. Applicable only when the  s i t u a t i o n   h a s  b e e n   i m p r o v e d !

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine brucellosis eradication

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1959-1965

     public health phenomenon ? increasing human population out of risk

     public health phenomenon measure units ? persons out of risk

     input (cost) units                     ? Kcs

                total input (cost) of the programme    ? 280000000

     Is the public health phenomenon desirable - positive (p),  i.e. with  m a j o r  (!!)  final value

                            or   not desirable - negative (n),   i.e. with  m i n o r  (!!) final value                    ? p

     number of public health phenomenon measure units   at the programme beginning ? 4000000

                                                                                                    at the programme end       ? 15000000

RESULT:

   Difference between the initial and final values  of the public health phenomenon =  11000000 persons out of risk

   Change of public health phenomenon total value by every public health unit  costs in average       25.4545 Kcs

   Theoretically, for every input (cost) unit the total value  of the public health phenomenon can be changed in average  by     0.03928572   public health units

                                               

10.4-PUBLIC HEALTH COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Desirable changes in human population in terms: of zoonoses' risk grade, zoonoses incidence, prevalence, nidality, mortality, invalidity, territorial distribution, cost of treatment,  etc. Applicable only when the  s i t u a t i o n   h a s  b e e n   i m p r o v e d !

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine brucellosis eradication

     place, period ? Czechoslovakia,1959-1965

     public health phenomenon ? human brucellosis

     public health phenomenon measure units ? persons affected by brucellosis

     input (cost) units                     ? Kcs

                total input (cost) of the programme    ? 280000000

     Is the public health phenomenon desirable - positive (p),  i.e. with  m a j o r  (!!)  final value

                            or   not desirable - negative (n),  i.e. with  m i n o r  (!!) final value                    ? n

     number of public health phenomenon measure units at the programme beginning ? 110

                                                                                                  at the programme end       ? 0

RESULT:

   Difference between the initial and final values  of the public health phenomenon =  -110 persons affected by brucellosis

   Change of public health phenomenon total value by every public health unit  costs in average  2545454.5000 Kcs

   Theoretically, for every input (cost) unit the total value of the public health phenomenon can be changed in average  by    -0.00000039   public health units

                                              

10.5-PRODUCTION COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Applicable  o n l y  when the situation has been improved, i.e. for total value i n c r e a s e  of animal products (live animals, meat, milk, eggs, etc.).

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech republic,1959-1970

     animal product                ? cow milk

     animal product measure units  ? liters

     monetary units (abbreviation) ? Kcs

     total cost of the programme in monetary units    ? 1489000000

     quantity of animal product measure units  at the programme beginning ? 2563000000

                                                                                at the programme end       ? 3212000000

     quality as  p r i c e  (adjusted for inflation) of one animal product measure unit

                                                                                at the programme beginning ? 4

RESULT:

     Difference between the initial and final quantity of cow milk =  648999936 liters

     Increase of the quantity of  cow milk by one liters  costs in average      2.2943 Kcs

     For every one Kcs input the quantity  of cow milk increases in average  by       0.43586296 liters

     Difference between the initial and final monetary value of  cow milk =     4041399040 Kcs

     Increase of the monetary value of cow milk by one Kcs  costs in average     0.3684 Kcs

     For every one Kcs input the monetary value of cow milk increases in average   by       2.714170 Kcs

                                             

10.5-PRODUCTION COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME

Applicable  o n l y  when the situation has been improved, i.e. for total value i n c r e a s e  of animal products (live animals, meat, milk, eggs, etc.).

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1959-1968

     animal product                ? beef

     animal product measure units  ? MT

     monetary units (abbreviation) ? Kcs

     total cost of the programme in monetary units    ? 1489000000

     quantity of animal product measure units   at the programme beginning ? 230000

                                                                                at the programme end       ? 515000

     quality as  p r i c e  (adjusted for inflation) of one animal product measure unit

                                                                                at the programme beginning ? 30000

                                                                                at the programme end       ? 35000

RESULT:

     Difference between the initial and final quantity of  beef =  285000 MT

     Increase of the quantity of  beef by one MT  costs in average     5224.5615 Kcs

     For every one Kcs input the quantity  of beef increases in average   by       0.00019140 MT

     Difference between the initial and final monetary value of beef   =     11125000192 Kcs

     Increase of the monetary value of beef by one Kcs costs in average        0.1338 Kcs

     For every one Kcs input the monetary value  of beef increases in average  by       7.471457 Kcs

                                            

10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES

This subprogramme calculates:1) effectiveness of prophylactic measures  (vaccination, preventive treatment, other preventive measures)

INPUT DATA:

     prophylactic measures ? vaccination against hog cholera

     place, time ? Farm B.,May 2004

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,youth

     Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data              ? a

     number of animals at risk prophylactically treated         ? 122

     number of animals at risk prophylactically non-treated     ? 149

     number of diseased among prophylactically treated  animals at risk    ? 3

     number of diseased among prophylactically non-treated animals at risk    ? 68

RESULT:

     Prophylactic measures effectiveness  among animals at risk       =   94.6119 %

 

10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES

This subprogramme calculates: 1) effectiveness of prophylactic measures   (vaccination, preventive treatment, other preventive measures)

INPUT DATA:

     prophylactic measures ? vaccination against hog cholera

     place, time ? Province U.,2001

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data              ? r

     incidence rate among prophylactically  treated animals at specific risk (in %)       ? 2

     incidence rate among prophylactically  treated animals at direct risk (in %)       ? 3

     incidence rate among prophylactically  treated animals at indirect risk (in %)       ? 1

     incidence rate among prophylactically  non-treated animals at specific risk (in %)       ? 65

     incidence rate among prophylactically  non-treated animals at direct risk (in %)       ? 90

     incidence rate among prophylactically  non-treated animals at indirect risk (in %)       ? 20

RESULT:

     Prophylactic measures effectiveness  among animals at risk                      =  96.9231 %

     Prophylactic measures effectiveness  among animals at direct risk           =  96.6667 %

     Prophylactic measures effectiveness  among animals at indirect risk        =  95.0000 %

                                                

10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES

This subprogramme calculates:  2) disease recovery rates in treated and non-treated animals

INPUT DATA:

     recovery measures ? treatment of mastitis

     place, time ? Ranch B.,June 2004

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,milking cows¨

Recovery rates calculation is applicable when positive difference  between treated and non-treated  animals is expected  and all numeric input data (major than >0) are available !

     number of specifically diseased animals              ? 205

     number of specifically diseased animals  under recovery measures      ? 179

     number of  a l l  recovered animals from a disease   ? 170

     number of treated animals recovered from a disease   ? 167

RESULT:

     Proportion of treated diseased animals                        =     0.8732

     Rate of all recovered diseased animals                        =     0.8293

     Recovery rate of treated diseased animals                  =     0.9330

     Recovery rate of non-treated diseased animal           =     0.1154

     Ratio of treated/non treated animals' recovery rates =     8.09   :  1

     Ratio of non treated/treated animals' recovery rates =     0.12   :  1

                                                

10.7-COMPARISON OF FINAL SITUATION IN POPULATIONS WITH AND WITHOUT PROGRAMME

Programme of  reduction of disease(s) morbidity, mortality or nidality if o t h e r   c o n d i t i o n s   are the  s a m e  ! Applicable only for cases when the programme  i m p r o v e s  the situation in comparison with w o r s e n i n g  situation without programme (due to disease spreading) !

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     place, period? Czech Republic,1959-1968

     epi. phenomenon (disease indicator) ? prevalence

     phenomenon measure units ? tbc cattle

     monetary units ? Kcs

     value of average loss by one unit of the phenomenon       ? 5000

     i n i t i a l  number of epi. phenomenon units  in the compared populations (the  s a m e  in both) ? 628276

  f i n a l  (reduced) number of epi. phenomenon units in population  w i t h  programme         ? 0

  f i n a l  (increased) number of epi. phenomenon units in population  w i t h o u t  programme   ? 1000000

     total cost of the programme                               ? 950000000

RESULT:

  Reduction of prevalence   in population  w i t h  the programme =  628276 tbc cattle i.e. benefit = 3141380000 Kcs,

  while in the population   w i t h o u t  programme  the epi. situation becomes worse by     371724 tbc cattle  of value of  1858620000 Kcs.

  Programme benefit/cost ratio        =    3.3067    or   1  :    0.3024

  Programme cost/benefit ratio        =    0.3024    or   1  :    3.3067

  The reduction of the losses by one phenomenon measure unit  costs in average  1512 Kcs.

  Theoretically, if this average is applied on the population (of the same  size and situation) w i t h o u t  programme to reach a similar result   in the future under the same or similar conditions, the late programme   may cost about 1512074311 Kcs (not considering inflation or discount),  i.e.  562074311 Kcs more.

                                                

10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES

This subprogramme calculates:  - consumption and cost according to the coverage (quantity) need of:    1) vaccines or drugs

INPUT DATA:

     purpose (programme) ? prophylactic vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease

     place, time ? Czech Republic,1960

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     name of substance ? FMD AO vaccine

     substance measure units                                ? ml

     monetary units     ? Kcs         price of one substance unit       ? 1

     average dosis in substance measure units               ? 5

     number of individual aplications                       ? 1966000

RESULT:

    Average dosis price                                      =      5.00          Kcs

    Total consumption of  FMD AO vaccine  =      9830000       ml

    Total cost                                                        =      9830000       Kcs

                                             

10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES

This subprogramme calculates: - consumption and cost according to the coverage (quantity) need of:  2) solutions for disinfection or disinfestation

INPUT DATA:

     purpose (programme) ? disinfection in FMD outbreak area

     place, time ? Farm T.,20 May 1987

     name of substance ? NaOH            substance measure units   ? kg

     monetary units  ? dollars                 price of one substance unit   ? 2

     average substance concentration (%) in the solution    ? 2

     surface measure units                                  ? m2

     average of the solution per one surface unit in liters ? 2.5

     total surface for the application of the solution      ? 1500

RESULT:

    Consumption of NaOH  per one surface unit    =         0.0500     kg

    Total consumption of NaOH                                =         75         kg

    Cost per one surface unit                                     =         0.1000     dollars

    Total cost                                                                =         150        dollars

                                               

10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES

This subprogramme calculates: - quantity according to available financial input for:    3) vaccines or drugs

INPUT DATA:

     purpose (programme) ? vaccination against Newcastle disease

     place, time ? Ranch R.,April 2002

     species, category(ies) ? poultry,hen

     name of substance ? live vaccine                 substance measure units   ? ml

     monetary units   ? dollars                               price of one substance unit    ? 0.2

     average dosis in substance measure units               ? 0.5

     available financial input                              ? 12500

RESULT:

    Average dosis price                    =      0.10          dollars

    Available financial input is for  125000  doses.

                                                

10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES

This subprogramme calculates:  - quantity according to available financial input for:   4) solutions for disinfection or disinfestation

INPUT DATA:

     purpose (programme) ? disinfection in hog cholera farm

     place, time ? Farm E.,end of June 2002

     name of substance ? NaOH                       substance measure units   ? kg

     monetary units   ? dollars                           price of one substance unit    ? 2

     average substance concentration (%) in the solution    ? 1.5

     surface measure units                                  ? m2

     average of the solution per one surface unit in liters ? 2

     available financial input                              ? 8500

RESULT:

         Available financial input is for  141667 m2 .

                                               

10.9-PROGRAMME BENEFIT/COST RATIO IN DISCOUNTED MONETARY VALUES                                                                     (Ref.: Putt et al.)

For phenomena measured in monetary units. Discounted = present value.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place, period  ? Czech republic,1959-1977

     duration of subperiod (year, month, etc.)          ? year

     number of subperiods  to be evaluated  ? 18

     monetary units      ? million Kcs

     discount rate   ? 0.05

     Key in pairs monetary values (adjusted for inflation) of benefit, cost:

     subperiod  1 :    ? 10,90

     subperiod  2 :    ? 100,144

     subperiod  3 :    ? 200,182

     subperiod  4 :    ? 300,172

     subperiod  5 :    ? 400,171

     subperiod  6 :    ? 500,168

     subperiod  7 :    ? 600,138

     subperiod  8 :    ? 750,130

     subperiod  9 :    ? 900,181

     subperiod  10 :    ? 1039,112

     subperiod  11 :    ? 1039,20

     subperiod  12 :    ? 1039,15

     subperiod  13 :    ? 1039,10

     subperiod  14 :    ? 1039,5

     subperiod  15 :    ? 1039,2

     subperiod  16 :    ? 1039,1

     subperiod  17 :    ? 1039,0

     subperiod  18 :    ? 1039,0

RESULT:

year      Benefit      Cost              Discount      D  i  s  c  o  u  n  t  e  d

         million Kcs  million Kcs        factor    benefit       cost      ben.- cost

 1              10             90                    0.9524          10          86              -76

 2            100           144                    0.9070          91        131              -40

 3            200           182                    0.8638        173        157               16

 4            300           172                    0.8227        247        142             105

 5            400           171                    0.7835        313        134             179

 6            500           168                    0.7462        373        125             248

 7            600           138                    0.7107        426          98             328

 8            750           130                    0.6768        508          88             420

 9            900           181                    0.6446        580        117             463

 10        1039           112                    0.6139        638          69             569

 11        1039            20                     0.5847        607          12             596

 12        1039            15                     0.5568        579            8             570

 13        1039            10                     0.5303        551            5             546

 14        1039              5                     0.5051        525            3             522

 15        1039              2                     0.4810        500            1             499

 16        1039              1                     0.4581        476            0             476

 17        1039              0                     0.4363        453            0             453

 18        1039              0                     0.4155        432            0             432

Total  13111        1541                                      7481      1175          6306

 

  Ratio of total benefit / total cost             =    8.5081  =  1 :   0.1175

  Ratio of total cost / total benefit             =    0.1175  =  1 :   8.5081

  Difference between total benefit and total cost =  11570 million Kcs

  Ratio of total discounted benefit / total discounted cost  =  6.3658  =  1 :   0.1571

  Ratio of total discounted cost / total discounted benefit  =  0.1571  =  1 :   6.3658

  Difference between total discounted benefit  and total discounted cost  =   6306 million Kcs

                                                 

10.10-PROGRAMME BENEFIT/COST RATIO IN CUMULATIVE MONETARY VALUES

Applicable for the phenomena measurable in monetary units. B e n e f i t  of a specific disease eradication  c o n t i n u e s  after the end of the programme and inputs, thanks also to reproduction process, avoiding previous negative consequences during the next periods and generations.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place ? Czech Republic

     eradication period ? 1959-1968

     post-eradication period ? 1969-1977

     subperiod duration (year, month, etc.)   ? year

     number of subperiods  to be evaluated   ? 18

     monetary units      ? million Kcs

Key in pairs the values (integers, adjusted for inflation) of benefit, cost:

     subperiod    1 :    ? 10,90

     subperiod    2 :    ? 100,144

     subperiod    3 :    ? 200,182

     subperiod    4 :    ? 300,172

     subperiod    5 :    ? 400,171

     subperiod    6 :    ? 500,168

     subperiod    7 :    ? 600,138

     subperiod    8 :    ? 750,130

     subperiod    9 :    ? 900,181

     subperiod    10 :    ? 1039,112

     subperiod    11 :    ? 1039,20

     subperiod    12 :    ? 1039,15

     subperiod    13 :    ? 1039,10

     subperiod    14 :    ? 1039,5

     subperiod    15 :    ? 1039,2

     subperiod    16 :    ? 1039,1

     subperiod    17 :    ? 1039,0

     subperiod    18 :    ? 1039,0

RESULT:

year     Benefit     Cost      Ben/Cost    Cumulative  Cumulative   Cumulative

                                                                     Benefit       Cost                 B/C

 1              10           90           0.1111               10             90                   0.1111

 2            100         144           0.6944             110           234                   0.4701

 3            200         182           1.0989             310           416                   0.7452

 4            300         172           1.7442             610           588                   1.0374

 5            400         171           2.3392           1010           759                   1.3307

 6            500         168           2.9762           1510           927                   1.6289

 7            600         138           4.3478           2110         1065                   1.9812

 8            750         130           5.7692           2860         1195                   2.3933

 9            900         181           4.9724           3760         1376                   2.7326

 10        1039         112           9.2768           4799         1488                   3.2251

 11        1039           20         51.9500           5838         1508                   3.8714

 12        1039           15         69.2667           6877         1523                   4.5154

 13        1039           10       103.9000           7916         1533                   5.1637

 14        1039             5       207.8000           8955         1538                   5.8225

 15        1039             2       519.5000           9994         1540                   6.4896

 16        1039             1      1039.000          11033         1541                   7.1596

 17        1039             0                               12072         1541                   7.8339

 18        1039             0                               13111         1541                   8.5081

 

  Ratio of total cumulative benefit / total cumulative cost  =  8.5081   =  1 :   0.1175

  Ratio of total cumulative cost / total cumulative benefit  =  0.1175   =  1 :   8.5081

  Difference between total cumulative benefit  and total cumulative cost =   11570 million Kcs

                                                

10.11-ECONOMIC EFFECT  A F T E R  SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION

This subprogramme calculates the estimation of economic effect  a f t e r  the eradication of a disease when the inputs stop, while the  b e n e f i t  of disease free status c o n t i n u e s (avoiding the initial losses) during next periods thanks to health 'reproduction' in following animal generations, i.e. to  m u l t i p l y i n g   e f f e c t. After-eradication saved value =  loss at programme beginning multiplied by specific-disease free time.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place ? Czech Republic

     period of eradication programme                ? 1959-1968

     post-eradication period                        ? 1969-1979

     subperiod duration (year, month, etc.)         ? year

     monetary units    ? million Kcs

     loss due to disease at programme beginning     ? 1039

     total cost of the programme                    ? 1489

     number of post-eradication subperiods to be evaluated  ? 11

     discount rate of programme  cost       ? 0.05

RESULT:

P o s t -              Benefit -       Cumulative           Ratio           Ratio cumul.

eradication    value saved     benefit -            cumulative      benefit/

                            in               value saved in       benefit/        /discounted

  year              million Kcs     million Kcs         /total cost       total cost

    1                    1039                   1039                    0.6978            0.7327

    2                    1039                   2078                    1.3956            1.5386

    3                    1039                   3117                    2.0934            2.4233

    4                    1039                   4156                    2.7911            3.3926

    5                    1039                   5195                    3.4889            4.4528

    6                    1039                   6234                    4.1867            5.6106

    7                    1039                   7273                    4.8845            6.8730

    8                    1039                   8312                    5.5823            8.2476

    9                    1039                   9351                    6.2801            9.7424

    10                  1039                 10390                    6.9778          11.3662

    11                  1039                 11429                    7.6756          13.1279

 

Do you want to calculate total cumulative benefit including eradication

programme period and post-eradication period, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     cumulative benefit value at eradication programme end ? 4799

 

P o s t -         Value saved    Total cumulative              Ratio            Ratio cumul.

eradication                             value saved from          cumulative     benefit/

                              in               programme beginning     benefit/        /discounted

  year            million Kcs          in million Kcs             /total cost        total cost

    1                   1039                          5838                         3.9208            4.1168

    2                   1039                          6877                         4.6185            5.0919

    3                   1039                         7916                          5.3163            6.1543

    4                   1039                         8955                          6.0141            7.3102

    5                   1039                         9994                          6.7119            8.5663

    6                   1039                       11033                          7.4097            9.9297

    7                   1039                       12072                          8.1075          11.4080

    8                   1039                       13111                          8.8052          13.0093

    9                   1039                       14150                          9.5030          14.7423

    10                 1039                       15189                        10.2008          16.6160

    11                 1039                       16228                        10.8986          18.6403

                                               

10.12-PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT OF SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION

This subprogramme calculates public health effect of eradication in animal population of a specific infectious disease transmissible to man. 'S a v e d'  p e r s o n s  from the  specific zoonosis  =   r e d u c e d  new cases in comparison with initial incidence thanks to reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero risk (continuing specific disease free status).

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine brucellosis eradication

     place ? Czech Republic

     period of the programme ? 1960-1964

     number of years of the programme               ? 5

     number of post-eradication years to be evaluated (up to 11)  ? 11

     year  1 :  number of new specifically diseased persons ? 67

     year  2 :  number of new specifically diseased persons ? 71

     year  3 :  number of new specifically diseased persons ? 74

     year  4 :  number of new specifically diseased persons ? 49

     year  5 :  number of new specifically diseased persons ? 37

New cases in human population after eradication programme end:

     year  6  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 2

     year  7  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 10

     year  8  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 3

     year  9  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 2

     year  10  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 0

     year  11  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 0

     year  12  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 0

     year  13  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 0

     year  14  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 11

     year  15  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 4

     year  16  from programme beginning:  number of diseased persons ? 1

RESULT:

PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT  D U R I N G  SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION PROGRAMME

 

Programme   Number of   Cumulative      Number of    Cumulative   Ratio of

  year                 new           number of        of 'saved'        number       new cases/

                      diseased    new diseased      persons        of 'saved'   /initial year

                       persons        persons                                   persons      cases

   1                       67                   67                       0                       0              1.0000

   2                       71                 138                      -4                     -4              1.0597

   3                       74                 212                      -7                    -11             1.1045

   4                       49                 261                     18                       7              0.7313

   5                       37                 298                     30                     37             0.5522

 

PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT  A F T E R  SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION PROGRAMME

Number of new diseased persons during programme  f i r s t   year:  67

 

Year            Number of    Cumulative            Number of        Cumulative number   Ratio of

from                  new          number of              of 'saved'           of 'saved'                 new cases/

programme   diseased    new diseased         persons               from                        /initial year

beginning     persons     from programme                               programme                  cases

                                          beginning                                          beginning

  6                         2                   300                         65                       102                         0.0299

  7                       10                   310                         57                       159                         0.1493

  8                         3                   313                         64                       223                         0.0448

  9                         2                   315                         65                       288                         0.0299

  10                       0                   315                         67                       355                         0.0000

  11                       0                   315                         67                       422                         0.0000

  12                       0                   315                         67                       489                         0.0000

  13                       0                   315                         67                       556                         0.0000

  14                     11                   326                         56                       612                         0.1642

  15                       4                   330                         63                       675                         0.0597

  16                       1                   331                         66                       741                         0.0149

                                                

10.13-BIOLOGICAL EFFECT OF SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION

Number of animals or herds or territory units 's a v e d'  from the specific infectious disease = reduced number of new cases in comparison with initial incidence, thanks to reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero risk due to  c o n t i n u i n g  specific disease free status.

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? bovine tuberculosis elimination

     place ? Czech Republic

     period of the programme ? 1959-1968

     number of years of the programme         ? 10

     number of post-eradication years to be evaluated     ? 11

Evaluation in affected animals (a) or herds (h) or territory units (t) ? a

  year  1 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 357903

  year  2 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 191842

  year  3 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 117275

  year  4 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 71467

  year  5 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 57073

  year  6 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 52834

  year  7 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 43215

  year  8 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 21585

  year  9 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 14603

  year  10 :  number of new specifically affected animals ? 5242

New cases after eradication programme end:

  year 11  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 3692

  year 12  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 1782

  year 13  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 1724

  year 14  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 1810

  year 15  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 1717

  year 16  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 1689

  year 17  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 1116

  year 18  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 743

  year 19  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 511

  year 20  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 478

  year 21  from programme beginning: number of new affected animals ? 420

RESULT:

BIOLOGICAL EFFECT  D U R I N G  SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME

 

Programme   Number of   Cumulative    Number     Cumulative   Ratio of

  year                 new           number of     of 'saved'      number       new cases/

                       affected        affected          animals      of 'saved'   /initial year

                       animals         animals                                animals      cases

   1                   357903          357903                    0                   0         1.0000

   2                   191842          549745           166061        166061         0.5360

   3                   117275          667020           240628        406689         0.3277

   4                     71467          738487           286436        693125         0.1997

   5                     57073          795560           300830        993955         0.1595

   6                     52834          848394           305069        1299024       0.1476

   7                     43215          891609           314688        1613712       0.1207

   8                     21585          913194           336318        1950030       0.0603

   9                     14603          927797           343300        2293330       0.0408

   10                     5242          933039           352661        2645991       0.0146

 

BIOLOGICAL EFFECT  A F T E R  SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME

Number of new affected animals during programme first year:  357903

 

Year            Number of   Cumul. Number   Number  Cum.Number  Ratio of

from                new               of new            of 'saved'    of 'saved'    new cases/

programme  affected    affected from        animals        from          /initial year

beginning   animals       programme                          programme     cases

                                          beginning                            beginning

   11                 3692            936731              354211       3000202        0.0103

   12                 1782            938513              356121       3356323        0.0050

   13                 1724            940237              356179       3712502        0.0048

   14                 1810            942047              356093       4068595        0.0051

   15                 1717            943764              356186       4424781        0.0048

   16                 1689            945453              356214       4780995        0.0047

   17                 1116            946569              356787       5137782        0.0031

   18                   743            947312              357160       5494942        0.0021

   19                   511            947823              357392       5852334        0.0014

   20                   478            948301              357425       6209759        0.0013

   21                   420            948721              357483       6567242        0.0012

                                                

10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME

 This subprogramme calculates:  1) implementation of individual programmes  (in terms of indicators or activities)

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? surveillance of cattle diseases

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1999

     measure units ? tests

In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones use as

            - planned value:  the planned  d i f f e r e n c e 

            - real value:     the real  d i f f e r e n c e                between initial and final situation !

     number of pairs of planned and real values ? 5

         List data:

 1 indicator/activity, planned, real values ? brucel.serology,344650,407000

 2 indicator/activity, planned, real values ? tuberculin.simple,716511,711929

 3 indicator/activity, planned, real values ? tuberculin.simult.,24325,17796

 4 indicator/activity, planned, real values ? IBR/IPV serolog.,79465,136053

 5 indicator/activity, planned, real values ? leukosis serolog.,240761,284841

RESULT:

    Indicator                   V a l u e s              D i f f e r e n c e         IMPLEMENTATION

                                 planned       real       absolute   relative           of programme

                                                                                           %                       %

 brucel.serology      344650      407000     62350         18.09                 118.09

 tuberculin.simp      716511      711929      -4582          -0.64                   99.36

 tuberculin.simu        24325        17796      -6529        -26.84                   73.16

 IBR/IPV serolog       79465      136053     56588         71.21                  171.21

 leukosis serolo       240761      284841     44080         18.31                  118.31

 

10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME

 This subprogramme calculates:  summary table of one implementation indicator  according to  2) space (territory)

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? serological investigation of pigs on Aujeszky disease

     indicator ? test

     place, period ? North Moravia,1992

     measure units ? tests

In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones use as

 - planned value:  the planned  d i f f e r e n c e

 - real value:     the real  d i f f e r e n c e                    between initial and final situation !

         List data:

 1 subterritory, planned, real values ? Bruntal,335,281

 2 subterritory, planned, real values ? Frydek-Mistek,242,49

 3 subterritory, planned, real values ? Karvina,937,1464

 4 subterritory, planned, real values ? Novy Jicin,2741,3758

 5 subterritory, planned, real values ? Olomouc,4859,6885

 6 subterritory, planned, real values ? Opava,2483,3084

 7 subterritory, planned, real values ? Ostrava,197,129

 8 subterritory, planned, real values ? Prerov,4699,6569

 9 subterritory, planned, real values ? Sumperk,1495,1788

 10 subterritory, planned, real values ? Vsetin,503,362

RESULT:

                                 V a l u e s            D i f f e r e n c e        IMPLEMENTATION

  Subterritory    planned    real      absolute      relative         of programme

 Bruntal                   335       281           -54          -16.12 %              83.88 %

 Frydek-Mistek      242         49         -193          -79.75 %              20.25 %

 Karvina                  937     1464          527            56.24 %            156.24 %

 Novy Jicin           2741     3758        1017            37.10 %            137.10 %

 Olomouc              4859     6885        2026            41.70 %            141.70 %

 Opava                  2483      3084         601             24.20 %           124.20 %

 Ostrava                 197         129         -68            -34.52 %             65.48 %

 Prerov                 4699       6569       1870             39.80 %           139.80 %

 Sumperk             1495       1788         293             19.60 %           119.60 %

 Vsetin                   503         362        -141            -28.03 %             71.97 %

  T o t a l            18491     24369       5878              31.79 %          131.79 %

 

10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME

 This subprogramme calculates:  summary table of one implementation indicator  according to  3) time series

INPUT DATA:

     programme ? serological investigation of cattle on brucellosis

     indicator ? test

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1992-1995

     measure units ? tests

In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones use as

 - planned value:  the planned  d i f f e r e n c e

 - real value:     the real  d i f f e r e n c e                                        between initial and final situation !

     number  of pairs of planned and real values ? 4

         List data:

 1 subperiod, planned, real values ? 1992,125619,152920

 2 subperiod, planned, real values ? 1993,1024818,1222608

 3 subperiod, planned, real values ? 1994,1203869,1088418

 4 subperiod, planned, real values ? 1995,1153283,1082703

RESULT:

                                V a l u e s            D i f f e r e n c e     IMPLEMENTATION

  Subperiod    planned    real        absolute      relative    of programme

 1992             125619        152920       27301        21.73 %     121.73 %

 1993             1024818    1222608     197790        19.30 %     119.30 %

 1994             1203869    1088418    -115451        -9.59 %       90.41 %

 1995             1153283    1082703      -70580        -6.12 %       93.88 %

  T o t a l      3507589    3546649        39060          1.11 %     101.11

 

 

 

       11-COMPLEMENTARY SUBPROGRAMMES - I

       ======================================

 

       1-Disease introduction risk assessment applying user-defined criteria

       2-Risk probability of test negative results in infected animals

       3-Risk probability that at least one animal import unit is infected

       4-Survival of diseased and vaccinated animals acc. to replacement

       5-Table of number changes of foci, intrafocal and diseased animals

       6-Point prevalence of foci and intrafocal diseased/exposed animals

       7-Table of foci and diseased animals incidence/extinction

       8-Table of slaughtered animals and disease findings

       9-Prevalence based on outbreaks, herd size and infection duration

       10-Relations between prevalence of population and of affected herds

       11-Animals/livestock units per territory/inhabitant/veterinarian

       12-Rates of spread of animal disease outbreaks

     

                                              

11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA

This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades.    The criteria of this 'b l a n c   m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by the  u s e r   h i m s e l f  according to particular situation and needs.   The criteria selection, sequence, grading and the interpretation of the result must respect the logic, theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological sense.

 

      Do you want, evaluating exporting territory situation,  to process probability grades of the criteria which:

   i n c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n     r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability    to discover all diseased animals/herds,  inability to avoid disease agents  spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)  - (i)

                             or

   d e c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n      r i s k (resistance of exposed animals, ability to discover all diseased   animals/herds, ability to avoid disease  agents spread, effectiveness  of pre-export 'filter', etc.)                          - (d) ? i

INPUT DATA:

  Grades of selected criteria probability  must be major than 0 but not major  than 1, i.e. expressed as proportions !

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     commodity to be introduced (imported) - animals   (a)   or animal raw products (p) ? a

     species/category                      ? cattle

     number of animals to be imported      ? 980

     name of importing unit/territory      ? A                         name of exporting unit/territory      ? B

                                  Disproportionate increasing the number of criteria =  disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated risk value  (in spite of the same situation) !

    Situation in original  e x p o r t i n g  territory/population/unit:

     specific disease true occurrence grade (>0 - 1)      ? 0.1

     How many other criteria to be processed              ? 3

 Key risk increasing criteria, grade (>0-1 !):

 1  criterion, grade ? inability to discover all diseased animals,0.5

 2  criterion, grade ? inability to avoid disease agents spread,0.4

 3  criterion, grade ? ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.4

RESULT:

Order   C r i t e r i o n                                                          G r a d e

 1       inability to discover all diseased animals             0.50000

 2       inability to avoid disease agents spread              0.40000

 3       ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                       0.40000

 Risk probability grade of disease agents introduction  =  0.00800000 +- 0.00557755

         Estimated number of infected animals  to be probably introduced is about    8

                                                 

11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA

This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades.     The criteria of this 'b l a n c   m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by the  u s e r   h i m s e l f  according to particular situation and needs. The criteria selection, sequence, grading and the interpretation of the result must respect the logic, theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological sense.

      Do you want, evaluating exporting territory situation,  to process probability grades of the criteria which:

   i n c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n     r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability   to discover all diseased animals/herds,  inability to avoid disease agents  spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)  - (i)

                             or

   d e c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n      r i s k (resistance of exposed animals, ability to discover all diseased    animals/herds, ability to avoid disease  agents spread, effectiveness  of pre-export 'filter', etc.)                          - (d) ? d

INPUT DATA:

  Grades of selected criteria probability  must be major than 0 but not major  than 1, i.e. expressed as proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     commodity to be introduced (imported) - animals  (a) or animal raw products (p) ? a

     species/category                      ? cattle

     number of animals to be imported      ? 980

     name of importing unit/territory      ? A                       name of exporting unit/territory      ? B

      Disproportionate increasing the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated risk value  (in spite of the same situation) !

    Situation in original  e x p o r t i n g  territory/population/unit:

     specific disease true occurrence grade (>0 - 1)      ? 0.1

     How many other criteria to be processed              ? 3

 Key risk decreasing criteria, grade (>0-1 !):

 1  criterion, grade ? ability to discover all diseased animals,0.5

 2  criterion, grade ? ability to avoid disease agents spread,0.6

 3  criterion, grade ? effectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.6

RESULT:

 Order   C r i t e r i o n                                                       G r a d e

 1       ability to discover all diseased animals               0.50000

 2       ability to avoid disease agents spread                0.60000

 3       effectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                         0.60000

 Risk probability grade of disease agents introduction  =  0.00800000 +- 0.00557755

         Estimated number of infected animals  to be probably introduced is about    8

                                                

11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA

This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades.    The criteria of this 'b l a n c   m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by the  u s e r   h i m s e l f  according to particular situation and needs.  The criteria selection, sequence, grading and the interpretation of the result must respect the logic, theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological sense.

      Do you want, evaluating exporting territory situation,  to process probability grades of the criteria which:

   i n c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n     r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability    to discover all diseased animals/herds,  inability to avoid disease agents   spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)  - (i)

                             or

   d e c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n     r i s k (resistance of exposed animals, ability to discover all diseased    animals/herds, ability to avoid disease agents spread, effectiveness  of pre-export 'filter', etc.)                          - (d) ? i

INPUT DATA:

  Grades of selected criteria probability  must be major than 0 but not major  than 1, i.e. expressed as proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     commodity to be introduced (imported) - animals   (a)  or animal raw products (p) ? p

     type of animal product                ? raw meat

     measure units (up to 10 characters !) ? MT

     quantity of product to be imported    ? 980

     name of importing unit/territory      ? A      name of exporting unit/territory      ? B

      Disproportionate increasing the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated risk value  (in spite of the same situation) !

    Situation in original  e x p o r t i n g  territory/population/unit:

     specific disease true occurrence grade (>0 - 1)      ? 0.1

     How many other criteria to be processed              ? 3

 Key risk increasing criteria, grade (>0-1 !):

 1  criterion, grade ? inability to discover all diseased animals,0.5

 2  criterion, grade ? inability to avod meat contamination,0.5

 3  criterion, grade ? ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.2

RESULT:

 Order   C r i t e r i o n                                                        G r a d e

 1       inability to discover all diseased animals             0.50000

 2       inability to avod meat contamination                    0.50000

 3       ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                       0.20000

 Risk probability grade of disease agents introduction  =  0.00500000 +- 0.00441611

         Estimated quantity of infected or contaminated products  to be probably imported is about    5 MT

                                                

11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA

This subprogramme calculates risk probability of specific infectious disease agents' introduction into a territory (country, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades.    The criteria of this 'b l a n c   m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by the  u s e r   h i m s e l f  according to particular situation and needs.     The criteria selection, sequence, grading and the interpretation of the result must respect the logic, theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological sense.

      Do you want, evaluating exporting territory situation,  to process probability grades of the criteria which:

   i n c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n     r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability    to discover all diseased animals/herds,  inability to avoid disease agents   spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)  - (i)

                             or

   d e c r e a s e    d i s e a s e   a g e n t s   i n t r o d u c t i o n     r i s k (resistance of exposed animals, ability to discover all diseased    animals/herds, ability to avoid disease agents spread, effectiveness   of pre-export 'filter', etc.)                          - (d) ? d

INPUT DATA:

  Grades of selected criteria probability  must be major than 0 but not major  than 1, i.e. expressed as proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !

     disease ? foot-and-mouth disease

     commodity to be introduced (imported) - animals   (a)   or animal raw products (p) ? p

     type of animal product                ? meat

     measure units (up to 10 characters !) ? MT

     quantity of product to be imported    ? 980

     name of importing unit/territory      ? A             name of exporting unit/territory      ? B

      Disproportionate increasing the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing calculated risk value   (in spite of the same situation) !

    Situation in original  e x p o r t i n g  territory/population/unit:

     specific disease true occurrence grade (>0 - 1)      ? 0.1

     How many other criteria to be processed              ? 3

 Key risk decreasing criteria, grade (>0-1 !):

 1  criterion, grade ? ability to discover all diseased animals,0.5

 2  criterion, grade ? ability to avoid meat contamination,0.5

 3  criterion, grade ? effectiveness of pre-export 'filter',0.8

RESULT:

Order   C r i t e r i o n                                                        G r a d e

 1       ability to discover all diseased animals               0.50000

 2       ability to avoid meat contamination                     0.50000

 3       effectiveness of pre-export 'filter'                          0.80000

 Risk probability grade of disease agents introduction  = 0.00500000 +- 0.00441611

         Estimated quantity of infected or contaminated products  to be probably imported is about    5 MT

                                                

11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS                                                                                  (Ref.: MacDiarmid)

1) Probability that an animal which gives negative results in disease   testing is actually infected with the disease agent

INPUT DATA:

     disease   ? brucellosis                         species   ? cattle

     place     ? Country C.                           time      ? January 1997

     true prevalence rate (number between >0 and <1)             ? 0.05

     test sensitivity (number between >0 and 1)                  ? 0.95

     test specificity (number between >0 and 1)                  ? 1

RESULT:

     Probability that an animal which gives negative results in disease  testing is actually infected with the disease agent = 0.002624671906

                                                

11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS                                                                                 (Ref.: MacDiarmid)

2) Probability that an animal which gives negative results in disease  testing and is actually infected will be included in export group

INPUT DATA:

     disease   ? brucellosis                        species   ? cattle

     place     ? Counry C.                           time      ? May 1999

     true prevalence rate (number between >0 and <1)             ? 0.01

     test sensitivity (number between >0 and 1)                  ? 0.95

     test specificity (number between >0 and 1)                  ? 1

     number of animals in the group                              ? 400

RESULT:

 Probability that an animal which gives negative results in disease testing and is actually infected with the disease agent will be included   in the group for export = 0.182879908405

                                       

11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS                                                                                (Ref.: MacDiarmid)

3) Probability of a given test failing to detect at least  one test-positive animal in an infected group

INPUT DATA:

     disease   ? brucellosis                       species   ? cattle

     place     ? Ranch K.                            time      ? March 1993

     true prevalence rate (number between >0 and <1)             ? 0.01

     test sensitivity (number between >0 and 1)                  ? 0.95

     number of animals in the group                              ? 2000

     number of animals from the group which are tested           ? 500

RESULT:

 Probability of a given test failing to detect at least  one test-positive animal in an infected group  = 0.004413640543

                                               

11.3-RISK PROBABILITY THAT AT LEAST ONE ANIMAL IMPORT UNIT IS INFECTED                                                                         (Ref.: Morley)

Note: Animal import unit = life animal or measure unit  of raw product of animal origin (e.g. specified weight of the product).

INPUT DATA:

  disease ? brucellosis                       animal import units (commodity) ? pigs

  place ? Country B.                           time ? May 2003

  disease true occurrence proportion in exporting territory (number between >0 and <1) ? 0.1

  probability rate of the pathogen being present at import time  (number between >0 and 1)  ? 0.01

  number of animal import units                   ? 2500

RESULT:

     Probability that at least one animal import unit of the commodity importation is infected = 0.918017625809

     Probability that no animal import units are infected = 0.081982389092

                                                

11.4-SURVIVAL OF CHRONICALLY DISEASED AND VACCINATED ANIMALS   ACCORDING TO POPULATION REPLACEMENT CYCLE

This subprogramme is applicable on groups of animals of a particular   epizootiological category such as chronically diseased, vaccinated, etc.    under the conditions that these animals are not prematurely removed   and in absence of migration. Duration of regular replacement cycle (generation or breeding or production  cycles) must be longer than evaluated period !

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,in feedlots

     epizootiological category ? vaccinated against hog cholera

     place, period ? Ranch T., I.semester 2004

     total number of animals of the given epizootiological  category  at the beginning of the period   ? 5600

     duration (in days) of one regular replacement cycle         ? 180

     duration (in days) between the initial and evaluated  days within the replacement cycle   ? 90

RESULT:

     Estimated number of animals of the given epizootiological category  existing at the beginning of the regular replacement cycle

  and still remaining */ at the evaluated day  =  2800

     */ Note: If not eliminated prematurely and in absence of migration.

 

11.5.1-TABLE OF CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS

This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the  n u m b e r s  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods of:   1) foci

INPUT DATA:

title  ? INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION OF BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS IN CZECH REPUBLIC

     disease, species ? bovine brucellosis,cattle

     place (territory), period ? Czech Republic,1960-1964

     measure units ? foci (incl.  in observation)

 Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s

Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the beginning,  new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods  (a)

or only on initial number and  new and extinct cases in subperiods  (b) ? b

                number of rows  ? 6

     value at the beginning of the first row ? 654

Respecting the sequence order and providing  a l l  data required (real, estimated or fictitious),

  key row names, number of new cases, of extinct cases

     1 row: ? 1960,29,165

     2 row: ? 1961,17,107

     3 row: ? 1962,17,61

     4 row: ? 1963,15,110

     5 row: ? 1964,10,85

     6 row: ? 1965,3,107

RESULT:

Subperiod          At beginning     New            Extinct      At the end

                                    654

1960                                                  29                 165             518

1961                                                  17                 107             428

1962                                                  17                   61             384

1963                                                  15                 110             289

1964                                                  10                   85             214

1965                                                    3                 107             110

T o t a l                      654                 91                 635             110

 

11.5.2-TABLE OF CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS

This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the  n u m b e r s  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods of: 2) intrafocal animals

INPUT DATA:

title  ? CHANGES IN NUMBER OF SWINE ATROPHIC RHINITIS FOCI

     disease, species ? athrophic rhinitis,pigs

     place (territory), period ? Czech Republic,1982-1987

     measure units ? foci

Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s

Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the beginning,  new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods  (a)

or only on initial number and  new and extinct cases in subperiods  (b) ? a

                number of rows  ? 6

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required (real, estimated or fictitious),

  key row names, values   at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases, at the end :

     1 row: ? 1982,156,42,95,103

     2 row: ? 1983,103,29,71,61

     3 row: ? 1984,61,37,43,55

     4 row: ? 1985,55,18,34,39

     5 row: ? 1986,39,22,21,40

     6 row: ? 1987,40,20,21,39

RESULT:

Subperiod          At beginning     New        Extinct      At the end

1982                            156                 42             95           103

1983                            103                 29             71             61

1984                              61                 37             43             55

1985                              55                 18             34             39

1986                              39                 22             21             40

1987                              40                 20             21             39

                                                  

11.5.2-TABLE OF CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS

This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the  n u m b e r s  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods of:   2) intrafocal animals    

INPUT DATA:

title ? CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF PIGS IN AUJESZKY DISEASE FOCI

     disease, species ? Aujeszky disease,pigs

     place (territory), period ? Province T.,1990-1993

     measure units ? intrafocal animals

Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? p

                number of rows   ? 4

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required (real, estimated or fictitious),

  key row names, values   at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases, at the end :

     1 row: ? Region O.,1000,300,400,900

     2 row: ? Region H.,15000,5000,2000,18000

     3 row: ? Region T.,1200,400,400,1200

     4 row: ? Region J.,300,100,100,300

RESULT:

Subterritory       At beginning     New         Extinct      At the end

Region O.                  1000              300             400               900

Region H.                15000            5000           2000           18000

Region T.                  1200              400             400             1200

Region J.                     300              100             100               300

T o t a l                    17500            5800           2900           20400

RESULT:

 

11.5.3-TABLE OF CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS

This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the  n u m b e r s  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods of:   3) diseased animals

INPUT DATA:

title ? BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA - INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION

     disease, species ? brucellosis,cattle

     place (territory), period ? Czechoslovakia,1960-1966

     measure units ? affected cattle

     Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s

Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the beginning,  new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods  (a)

or only on initial number and  new and extinct cases in subperiods  (b) ? a

                number of rows ? 7

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required (real, estimated or fictitious),

  key row names, values  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases, at the end :

     1 row: ? 1960,98596,9823,2186,106233

     2 row: ? 1961,106233,4279,22091,88421

     3 row: ? 1962,88421,1188,20649,68960

     4 row: ? 1963,68960,1511,42184,28287

     5 row: ? 1964,28287,2631,30918,0

     6 row: ? 1965,0,309,309,0

     7 row: ? 1966,0,167,167,0

RESULT:

Subperiod          At beginning     New          Extinct      At the end

1960                            98596           9823             2186           106233

1961                          106233           4279           22091             88421

1962                            88421           1188           20649             68960

1963                            68960           1511           42184             28287

1964                            28287           2631           30918                     0

1965                                    0            309                309                     0

1966                                    0            167                167                     0

 

11.5.3a-TABLE OF CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS

This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the  n u m b e r s  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods of:  3) diseased animals

INPUT DATA:

title ? INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION OF CATTLE TUBERCULOSIS IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA

     disease, species ? bovine tuberculosis,cattle

     place (territory), period ? Czechoslovakia,1960-1969

     measure units ? tbc cattle

Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s

Do you have data (real, estimated or fictitious) on numbers at the beginning,  new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods  (a)

or only on initial number and  new and extinct cases in subperiods  (b) ? a

                number of rows   ? 10

Respecting the sequence order and providing  a l l  data required,

  key row names, values  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases, at the end :

     1 row: ? 1960,859557,317124,282888,893793

     2 row: ? 1961,893793,212172,309352,796613

     3 row: ? 1962,796613,116231,273673,639171

     4 row: ? 1963,639171,83405,245817,476759

     5 row: ? 1964,476759,84185,223974,336970

     6 row: ? 1965,336970,66775,197178,206567

     7 row: ? 1966,206567,36896,144115,99348

     8 row: ? 1967,99348,27097,106968,19477

     9 row: ? 1968,19477,5450,24927,0

     10 row: ? 1969,0,3863,3863,0

RESULT:

Subperiod   At beginning    New          Extinct      At the end

 

1960                 859557         317124         282888         893793

1961                 893793         212172         309352         796613

1962                 796613         116231         273673         639171

1963                 639171         83405          245817          476759

1964                 476759         84185          223974          336970

1965                 336970         66775          197178          206567

1966                 206567         36896          144115          99348

1967                 99348           27097          106968          19477

1968                 19477           5450            24927            0

1969                 0                   3863            3863              0

           

11.5.3b-TABLE OF CHANGES IN NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS

This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the  n u m b e r s  at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods of:   diseased animals

INPUT DATA:

Title - INCIDENCE AND EXTINCTION OF TB CATTLE IN CZECH REPUBLIC DURING 1959-1968

     disease, species ? TB,cattle

     place (territory), period ? Czech Republic,1959-1968

     measure units ? affected cattle

Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s

Do you have data  on numbers at the beginning,  new cases, extinct cases and at the end of subperiods  (a) or only on initial number and  new and extinct cases in subperiods  (b) ? b

                number of rows  ? 10

     value at the beginning of the first row ? 497006

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required,  key row names, number of new cases, of extinct cases:

     1 row: ? 1959,357903,226633

     2 row: ? 1960,191842,189280

     3 row: ? 1961,117275,182454

     4 row: ? 1962,71476,180566

     5 row: ? 1963,57073,163885

     6 row: ? 1964,52832,153305

     7 row: ? 1965,43215,134232

     8 row: ? 1966,21285,99543

     9 row: ? 1967,14603,75135

     10 row: ? 1968,5243,24720

RESULT

Subperiod          At beginning     New            Extinct      At the end

                               497006

1959                                                357903         226633         628276

1960                                                191842         189280         630838

1961                                                117275         182454         565659

1962                                                  71476          180566        456569

1963                                                  57073          163885        349757

1964                                                  52832          153305        249284

1965                                                  43215          134232        158267

1966                                                  21285            99543         80009

1967                                                  14603            75135         19477

1968                                                    5243            24720         0

T o t a l                  497006            932747         1429753         0

 

11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS

This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned data  1) related to a selected disease according to different places

INPUT DATA:

     disease, form(s) ? brucellosis,all

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     territory ? Czech Republic                        time (moment) ? 1.1.1963

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required  key P l a c e  name,   number of foci, intrafocal animals, diseased animals:

     1  row: ? Centr.Bohemia,110,38791,15455

     2  row: ? S.Bohemia,15,2734,287

     3  row: ? W.Bohemia,13,2430,0

     4  row: ? N.Bohemia,34,8499,1558

     5  row: ? E.Bohemia,0,0,0

     6  row: ? S.Moravia,33,13483,5988

     7  row: ? N.Moravia,18,3340,0

RESULT:

P l a c e            F o c i           I n t r a f o c a l     a n i m a l s        Intraf.Diseased

                                            T o t a l      Diseased       Exposed   Prevalence Rate

Centr.Bohemi   110              38791          15455            23336          0.3984

S.Bohemia          15                2734              287              2447           0.1050

W.Bohemia        13                2430                  0              2430           0.0000

N.Bohemia         34                8499            1558              6941           0.1833

E.Bohemia            0                      0                  0                   0            0.0000

S.Moravia          33              13483            5988              7495           0.4441

N.Moravia         18                3340                  0              3340           0.0000

T o t a l             223              69277          23288            45989           0.3362

Average per focus                 311              104                206           0.3362

                                               

11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS

This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned data   2) related to a selected disease according to different moments

INPUT DATA:

     disease, form(s) ? bovine brucellosis,all

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     territory ? Czech Republic                    period ? 1961-1965

Respecting the sequence order and providing  a l l  data required, ,key M o m e n t  name, number of foci, intrafocal animals, diseased animals:

     1  row: ? 1.1.1961,518,110891,3321

     2  row: ? 1.1.1962,428,93382,33656

     3  row: ? 1.1.1963,223,69248,25288

     4  row: ? 1.1.1964,168,56536,7998

     5  row: ? 1.1.1965,119,40470,0

RESULT:

Moment   F o c I        I n t r a f o c a l     a n i m a l s    Intraf.Diseased

                                 T o t a l      Diseased    Exposed    Prevalence Rate

1.1.1961       518       110891         3321           107570       0.0299

1.1.1962       428       93382          33656          59726         0.3604

1.1.1963       223       69248          25288          43960         0.3652

1.1.1964       168       56536          7998            48538         0.1415

1.1.1965       119       40470          0                  40470         0.0000

                                                 

11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS

This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned data  3) related to different diseases in the same territory and moment

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     territory ? Czechoslovakia                time (moment) ? 31.12.1987

Respecting the sequence order and providing  a l l  data required (real or estimated), key Disease  name, number of foci, intrafocal animals, diseased animals:

     1  row: ? Tuberculosis,27,65812,266

     2  row: ? Aujeszky dis.,6,72083,0

     3  row: ? Salmonellosis,1,4086,0

     4  row: ? Rhinitis atr.,39,104506,249

     5  row: ? Dysentery,54,240643,3663

     6  row: ? Muscle dis.,34,51519,427

     7  row: ? Pleuropneum.,22,106037,1634

     8  row: ? Parvovirosis,21,29249,150

RESULT:

Disease            F o c i   I n t r a f o c a l     a n i m a l s   Intraf.Diseased

                                        T o t a l      Diseased    Exposed   Prevalence Rate

Tuberculosis      27         65812           266            65546         0.0040

Aujeszky dis.       6         72083               0            72083         0.0000

Salmonellosis      1           4086                0             4086          0.0000

Rhinitis atr.        39       104506            249         104257          0.0024

Disentery           54       240643            366         236980          0.0152

Muscle dis.        34        51519             427           51092          0.0083

Pleuropneum.    22       106037          1634          104403         0.0154

Parvovirosis      21        29249             150            29099         0.0051

 

11.7-TABLE OF FOCI AND DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION

This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data     1) related to a selected disease according to different places

INPUT DATA:

     disease, form(s) ? Newcastle disease,all

     species, category(ies) ? poultry,hen

     territory ? Province G.                            total period ? 2003

key P l a c e name,  number of new foci, extinct foci, newly diseased animals, dead+killed diseased animals, slaughtered diseased animals,  slaughtered suspect animals:

      row  1 : ? Region J.,23,12,560,120,10,410

      row  2 : ? Region Y.,13,10,350,98,35,1300

      row  3 : ? Region K.,3,2,78,6,45,670

      row  4 : ? Region G.,5,4,98,60,39,1200

      row  5 : ? Region O.,34,23,780,230,45,2670

RESULT:

P l a c e               F   o   c   i            D i s e a s e d  A n i m a l s        Suspect An.

                          New    Extinct         New       Dead+Kil. Slaught.    Slaughtered

Region J.            23          12             560              120          10                 410

Region Y.           13          10              350               98          35               1300

Region K.            3            2                78                 6           45                 670

Region G.            5            4                98                60          39                1200

Region O.          34          23              780              230          45                2670

T o t a l              78          51            1866              514        174                6250

Animals per one new focus             24                  7            2                    80

 

11.7-TABLE OF FOCI AND DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION

This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data   2) related to a selected disease according to different subperiods

INPUT DATA:

     disease, form(s) ? enzootic leukosis,all

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     territory ? Czechoslovakia                     total period ? 1978-1987

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required, key Subperiod name,  number of new foci, extinct foci, newly diseased animals,  dead+killed diseased animals, slaughtered diseased animals,   slaughtered suspect animals:

      row  1 : ? 1978,11,13,641,26,408,149

      row  2 : ? 1979,15,11,845,0,296,453

      row  3 : ? 1980,12,12,1089,2,538,228

      row  4 : ? 1981,16,8,3803,0,951,79

      row  5 : ? 1982,29,16,5967,49,1430,13

      row  6 : ? 1983,141,22,12814,103,2952,188

      row  7 : ? 1984,760,24,22696,81,6270,337

      row  8 : ? 1985,290,67,15664,125,10564,606

      row  9 : ? 1986,145,224,19024,177,16829,210

      row  10 : ? 1987,164,278,22752,239,18049,1073

RESULT:

Subperiod             F   o   c   i          D i s e a s e d  A n i m a l s     Suspect An.

                            New    Extinct       New    Dead+Kil. Slaught.    Slaughtered

1978                      11           13           641           26         408               149

1979                      15           11           845             0         296               453

1980                      12           12         1089             2         538               228

1981                      16             8         3803             0         951                 79

1982                      29           16         5967           49       1430                 13

1983                    141           22       12814         103       2952               188

1984                    760           24       22696           81       6270               337

1985                    290           67       15664         125     10564               606

1986                    145         224       19024         177     16829               210

1987                    164         278       22752         239     18049             1073

T o t a l             1583         675     105295         802     58287             3336

Animals per one new focus           67              1          37                    2

                                                

11.7-TABLE OF FOCI AND DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION

This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data   3) related to different diseases in the same territory and period

INPUT DATA:

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     territory ? Czechoslovakia                total period ? 1987

 Respecting the sequence order   and providing  a l l  data required, key Disease name,  number of new foci, extinct foci, newly diseased animals, dead+killed diseased animals, slaughtered diseased animals,  slaughtered suspect animals:

      row  1 : ? Tuberculosis,40,28,2483,16,2086

      row  2 : ? Aujeszky dis.,1,4,100,100,0,0

      row  3 : ? Salmonellosis,11,10,1743,363,20,63

      row  4 : ? Rhinitis atr.,20,21,6695,59,5295,112

      row  5 : ? Dysentery, 28,26,119785,4574,5119,926

      row  6 : ? Muscle dis.,1,0,15042,7977,114,38

      row  7 : ? Pleuropneum.,20,16,28433,2637,1835,251

      row  8 : ? Parvovirosis,14,9,753,210,14,0

RESULT:

Disease              F   o   c   i            D i s e a s e d  A n i m a l s   Suspect An.

                          New    Extinct      New   Dead+Kil. Slaught.    Slaughtered

Tuberculosis     40         28           2483         16         2086                   0

Aujeszky dis       1           4             100       100               0                   0

Salmonellosi      11         10           1743       363             20                 63

Rhinitis atr         20         21           6695         59         5295               112

Dysentery          28        26        119785     4574         5119               926

Muscle dis.          1          0          15042     7977           114                 38

Pleuropneum.    20        16           28433    2637         1835                251

Parvovirosis      14          9               753      210             14                    0

T o t a l             135      114         175034  15936       14483              1390

 

11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS

This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:    1) Total slaughtered animals, edible, conditionally edible

Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p

INPUT DATA

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     territory, period ? Czech Republic,1987

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required,   key P l a c e names and continue   with columns values of    total slaughtered, edible, conditionally edible after sterilization,  conditionally edible after other treatment:

     1 row: ? Prague,117622,108947,2696,5541

     2 row: ? Centr.Bohemia,114519,89014,2842,2093

     3 row: ? S.Bohemia,115873,100117,2221,12039

     4 row: ? W.Bohemia,113534,94885,2508,14850

     5 row: ? N.Bohemia,90103,73751,6044,9481

     6 row: ? E.Bohemia,141645,118190,3979,17518

     7 row: ? S.Moravia,218509,181283,1932,30880

     8 row: ? N.Moravia,155295,133955,3653,15915

RESULT:

P l a c e            T o t a l            Edible     Conditionally edible    Non edible

                      slaughtered                        steriliz.  oth. treat.

Prague                117622          108947      2696         5541                  438

Centr.Bohemia  114519            89014      2842         2093              20570

S.Bohemia         115873          100117       2221       12039                1496

W.Bohemia       113534            94885       2508       14850                1291

N.Bohemia          90103            73751       6044         9481                  827

E.Bohemia         141645         118190       3979        17518                1958

S.Moravia         218509          181283       1932       30880                4414

N.Moravia        155295          133955       3653        15915               1772

T o t a l            1067100          900142     25875      108317             32766

Proportion        1.0000            0.8435     0.0242      0.1015             0.0307

                                               

11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS

This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:   2) Sanitary (emergency) slaughtered animals

Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p

INPUT DATA

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     territory, period ? Czech republic,1987

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required,   key P l a c e names  and continue  with columns values of  total slaughtered, sanitary slaughtered:

     1 row: ? Prague,55366,4116

     2 row: ? C.Bohemia,47052,15075

     3 row: ? S.Bohemia,44398,12021

     4 row: ? W.Bohemia,45759,9110

     5 row: ? N.Bohemia,39733,8143

     6 row: ? E.Bohemia,66842,19600

     7 row: ? S.Moravia,86275,21987

     8 row: ? S.Moravia,63849,11257

RESULT:

P l a c e          T o t a l       Sanitary       Proportion   Percentage

                  Slaughtered     slaughtered

Prague             55366             4116            0.0743        7.4342

C.Bohemia      47052           15075            0.3204       32.0390

S.Bohemia      44398           12021            0.2708       27.0755

W.Bohemia    45759             9110            0.1991       19.9087

N.Bohemia     39733             8143            0.2049       20.4943

E.Bohemia      66842           19600            0.2932       29.3229

S.Moravia      86275           21987            0.2548       25.4848

S.Moravia      63849           11257            0.1763       17.6307

T o t a l         449274         101309            0.2255       22.5495

 

11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS

This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:   3) Disease findings during inspection of slaughtered animals and meat

INPUT DATA

     species, category(ies) ? pigs,all

     territory, period ? Czechoslovakia,1987

     number of slaughtered animals ? 7430947

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required, key specific disease name (up to 12 characters !), number of disease findings:

     1 row: ? Tuberculosis,27341

     2 row: ? Salmonellosis,423

     3 row: ? Aujeszky dis.,133

     4 row: ? Leukosis,20

     5 row: ? Respir.inf.,20690

     6 row: ? Diarrheas,3752

     7 row: ? Other inf.,5558

     8 row: ? Parasitoses,868

RESULT:

D i s e a s e      Number of     Proportion    %            Proportion    %

                           findings       of  total  findings        of total slaughtered

Tuberculosis       27341         0.4651    46.5102          0.0037     0.3679

Salmonellosis          423         0.0072      0.7196          0.0001     0.0057

Aujeszky dis.          133         0.0023      0.2262          0.0000     0.0018

Leukosis                   20          0.0003      0.0340          0.0000     0.0003

Respir.inf.           20690          0.3520    35.1961          0.0028     0.2784

Diarrheas              3752          0.0638     6.3826           0.0005     0.0505

Other inf.              5558          0.0945      9.4548          0.0007     0.0748

Parasitoses            868          0.0148      1.4766           0.0001     0.0117

T o t a l               58785          1.0000   100.0000          0.0079     0.7911

                                                 

11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS

This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:   4) Confiscation of internal organs of slaughtered animals

Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p

INPUT DATA

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,all

     territory, period ? Czech Republic,1987

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required,  key P l a c e names  and continue   with columns values of  confiscated lungs, hearts, livers, spleens, kidneys

     1 row: ? Prague,131148,2204,14538,3879,11256,28669

     2 row: ? C.Bohemia,18866,4356,15848,4455,16211,206099

     3 row: ? S.Bohemia,16183,2672,10842,4575,11160,188988

     4 row: ? W.Bohemia,21087,5703,14442,6463,15449,164751

     5 row: ? No.Bohemia,23066,4398,12955,7838,12369,186062

     6 row: ? E.Bohemia,20445,4746,20270,7070,15991,303476

     7 row: ? S.Moravia,39906,8355,23620,12931,31592,523545

     8 row: ? N.Moravia,45766,3727,16210,5140,44492,210562

RESULT:

P l a c e                Lungs      Hearts     Livers    Spleens  Kidneys

Prague                 131148      2204        14538       3879        11256

C.Bohemia            18866       4356        15848       4455        16211

S.Bohemia            16183       2672        10842       4575        11160

W.Bohemia          21087       5703        14442       6463        15449

No.Bohemia         23066       4398        12955       7838        12369

E.Bohemia            20445       4746        20270       7070        15991

S.Moravia            39906       8355        23620      12931       31592

N.Moravia           45766       3727        16210        5140        44492

T o t a l               316467     36161      128725      52351      158520

 

11.8-TABLE OF SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS AND DISEASE FINDINGS

This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the inspection of slaughtered animals and meat in abattoirs:  5) Causes of premature slaughter

INPUT DATA

     species, category(ies) ? cattle,cows

     territory, period ? Czech Republic,1987

     number of slaughtered animals ? 449274

Respecting the sequence order  and providing  a l l  data required,  key disease -  causes names, number of cases :

     1 row: ? Notifiable inf.,2839

     2 row: ? Respir.dis.,4100

     3 row: ? Digest.dis.,25897

     4 row: ? Mobil.org.d.,26358

     5 row: ? Reprod.dis.,21381

     6 row: ? Intoxication,1722

     7 row: ? Other dis.,19012

RESULT:

C a u s e s         Number of         Proportion   %             Proportion    %

                              cases              of total cases             of total slaughtered

Notifiable inf.        2839              0.0280       2.8023          0.0063     0.6319

Respir.dis.             4100              0.0405       4.0470          0.0091     0.9126

Digest.dis.           25897              0.2556     25.5624          0.0576     5.7642

Mobil.org.d.        26358              0.2602     26.0174          0.0587     5.8668

Reprod.dis.          21381              0.2110     21.1047          0.0476     4.7590

Intoxication           1722              0.0170       1.6998          0.0038     0.3833

Other dis.             19012             0.1877      18.7663          0.0423     4.2317

T o t a l               101309             1.0000    100.0000          0.2255   22.5495

 

11.9-PREVALENCE OF INTRAFOCAL ANIMALS BASED ON THE NUMBER OF OUTBREAKS, AVERAGE HERD SIZE AND INFECTION DURATION

INPUT DATA:                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (Ref.: Morley - adapted)

     disease, species ? CBPP,cattle

     place, a n n u a l  period ? Country B.,1994

     number of animals in the population                        ? 23212325

     number of outbreaks in previous 12 months                  ? 10

     average herd size                                          ? 271

     average duration of infection outbreaks in days            ? 120

RESULT:

    Estimated  annual period prevalence rate of intrafocal animals  based on the number of the outbreaks, average herd size  and outbreak average duration =                                                             = 0.000038

                                               

11.10-RELATIONS BETWEEN POPULATION PREVALENCE AND AFFECTED HERDS PREVALENCE

Relations between the values of disease morbidity and nidality; applicable if affected herds' composition and size are relatively homogenous.

INPUT DATA:

     disease     ? brucellosis                species     ? cattle

     place       ? Region G.                    time        ? 1.1.2004

Answer only  t w o  questions about rates (>0 - <1) to calculate the value  of the third one !

  population prevalence rate of diseased animals                    ? 0.025

  average prevalence rate of diseased animals in affected herds     ? 0.1

  prevalence rate of affected herds                                 ?

RESULT:

   Estimated prevalence rate of affected herds  =   0.2500

                                                

11.10-RELATIONS BETWEEN POPULATION PREVALENCE AND AFFECTED HERDS PREVALENCE

Relations between the values of disease morbidity and nidality; applicable if affected herds' composition and size are relatively homogenous.

INPUT DATA:

     disease     ? brucellosis             species     ? cattle

     place       ? Region G.                 time        ? 1.1.2004

Answer only  t w o  questions about rates (>0 - <1) to calculate the value  of the third one !

  population prevalence rate of diseased animals                    ?

  average prevalence rate of diseased animals in affected herds     ? 0.1

  prevalence rate of affected herds                                 ? 0.25

RESULT:

   Estimated population prevalence rate of diseased animals  =   0.0250

                                              

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT  AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:   1) average number of animals per territory unit

Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes, horses,mules/asses, camels, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry.

   Do you want to add  o n e  other species, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 18000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

     territory measure units                   ? 1000 ha

     land area total                             ? 7886

     arable land                                 ? 7728

     pastures                                    ? 890

RESULTS:

                                 Average number of animals per 1000 ha

                                 ----------------------------------------------------

         Species               Total          Arable         Pastures

                                      Land           Land

         cattle                 257.4182     262.6812      2280.8989

         dairy cows         97.3878       99.3789       862.9213

         buffaloes              0.0000         0.0000         0.0000

         horses                  2.2825          2.3292        20.2247

         mules/asses        0.0000          0.0000         0.0000

         camels                  0.0000          0.0000         0.0000

         sheep                 20.9232        21.3509       185.3933

         goats                    5.7063          5.8230        50.5618

         pigs                  490.3627      500.3882      4344.9438

         chickens         3384.2252    3453.4161   29986.5168

         other poultry   126.8070      129.3996     1123.5955

                                               

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT  AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:  2) average number of animals per inhabitant

Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes, horses,mules/asses, camels, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry

   Do you want to add  o n e  other species, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 18000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

     total number of inhabitants                     ? 10295000

     inhabitants in rural areas                      ? 1119000

     inhabitants in urban areas                      ? 589000

RESULTS:

                               Average number of animals per inhabitant

                               -------------------------------------------------------

         Species             Inhabitant    Inhabitant    Inhabitant

                                      in rural         in urban

                                       areas             areas

         cattle                    0.1972          1.8141         3.4465

         dairy cows          0.0746          0.6863         1.3039

         buffaloes             0.0000         0.0000         0.0000

         horses                  0.0017         0.0161         0.0306

         mules/asses        0.0000         0.0000         0.0000

         camels                  0.0000         0.0000         0.0000

         sheep                   0.0160         0.1475         0.2801

         goats                   0.0044          0.0402         0.0764

         pigs                      0.3756         3.4558         6.5654

         chickens              2.5923        23.8499       45.3107

         other poultry      0.0971          0.8937         1.6978

                                               

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT   AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:  3) average number of animals per veterinarian

Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes, horses, mules/asses, camels, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry.

   Do you want to add  o n e  other species, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 18000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

     total veterinarians                           ? 3256

     government veterinarians                      ? 1039

     private veterinarians                         ? 1850

RESULTS:

                                     Average number of animals per veterinarian

                                     ---------------------------------------------------------

         Species             Veterinarian    Government      Private

                                                             Veterinarian  Veterinarian

         cattle                          623                  1954             1097

         dairy cows                236                    739               415

         buffaloes                       0                       0                   0

         horses                           6                      17                 10

         mules/asses                 0                        0                   0

         camels                           0                        0                   0

         sheep                          51                    159                 89

         goats                          14                       43                 24

         pigs                         1188                  3722             2090

         chickens                 8197                25686           14426

         other poultry           307                    962               541

                                                

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT  AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:    4) total number of livestock units

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 18000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

         Selection of livestock units rates:

  a) Conversion rates 'a':Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

  b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o' ? a

RESULTS:

         Total number of livestock units   =   2872280

 

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT   AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:    5) average number of livestock units per territory unit

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 18000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

     territory measure units                   ? 1000 ha

     land area total                             ? 7878

     arable land                                 ? 7728

     pastures                                    ? 890

         Selection of livestock units rates:

  a) Conversion rates 'a': Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5;horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

  b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o' ? a

RESULTS:

              Total livestock units =  2872280

         Average number of livestock units per territory unit

         --------------------------------------------------------------------

                               Total         Arable        Pastures

                               Land          Land

Livestock units

 per 1000 ha          364.60        371.67       3227.28

                                                

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT   AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:    6) average number of livestock units per inhabitant

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 180000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

     total number of inhabitants                     ? 10295000

     inhabitants in rural areas                      ? 1119000

     ihabitants in urban areas                      ? 599000

         Selection of livestock units rates:

  a) Conversion rates 'a': Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

  b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o' ? a

RESULTS:

             Total livestock units =  3034280

                              Average number of livestock units per inhabitant

                              ----------------------------------------------------------------

                                     Inhabitant      Inhabitant    Inhabitant

                                        in rural          in urban

                                         areas              areas

Livestock units            0.2947             2.7116            5.0656

                                                

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT  AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:    7) average number of livestock units per veterinarian

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

number of cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes ? 2030000,768000,0

number of horses, mules/asses, camels         ? 18000,0,0

number of sheep, goats, pigs                  ? 165000,45000,3867000

number of chickens,  other poultry            ? 26688000,1000000

     total veterinarians                           ? 3356

     government veterinarians                      ? 1039

     private veterinarians                         ? 1850

         Selection of livestock units rates:

  a) Conversion rates 'a': Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

  b) Conversion rates 'b': Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.

Which conversion rates do you wish ? Rates 'a' or 'b' or other ones 'o' ? a

RESULTS:

              Total livestock units =  2872280

                              Average number of livestock units per veterinarian

                              ------------------------------------------------------------------

                                Veterinarian     Government       Private

                                                         Veterinarian     Veterinarian

Livestock units            856                   2764                1553

                                                 

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT  AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:    8) average number of territory units per veterinarian

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

     total veterinarians                           ? 3256

     government veterinarians                      ? 1039

     private veterinarians                         ? 1850

     territory measure units                   ? 1000 ha

     land area total                             ? 7886

     arable land                                 ? 7728

     pastures                                    ? 890

RESULTS:

                    Average number of territory measure units per veterinarian

                     ----------------- ----------------------------------------------------------

    Territory           Veterinarian  Government         Private

                                                     Veterinarian      Veterinarian

total land                   2.42                  7.59                   4.26

arable l                       2.37                  7.44                   4.18

pastur                        0.27                  0.86                   0.48

                                                 

11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT   AND VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates  following indicators:    9) average number of inhabitants per veterinarian

INPUT DATA:

territory, time ? Czech Republic,1994

     total veterinarians                           ? 3256

     government veterinarians                      ? 1039

     private veterinarians                         ? 1850

     total number of inhabitants                     ? 10295000

     inhabitants in rural areas                      ? 1119000

     inhabitants in urban areas                      ? 599000

RESULT:

                      Average number of inhabitants per veterinarian

                      --------------------------------------------------------------

         Inhabitants            Veterinarian  Government    Private

                                                                Veterinarian  Veterinarian

Total inhabitants                 3162               9909              5565

Inhabitants in rural areas     344               1077                605

            in urban areas            184                 577                324

                                                 

11.12-RATES OF SPREAD OF ANIMAL DISEASES' OUTBREAKS

INPUT DATA:

     disease, type of outbreaks ? foot-and.mouth disease,all

     territory, period ? European Community,1977-1987

Do you have data according to subterritories (t) or subperiods (p) ? t

     number of rows   ? 9

     data source  ? G.Davies:Rev.sci.tech.Off.int.Epiz.-1993-12(4):1109-1119

Key row names , number of primary outbreaks,  secondary outbreaks

     1 row: ? Denmark,2,21

     2 row: ? Greece,3,7

     3 row: ? United Kingd.,2,0

     4 row: ? France,2,38

     5 row: ? Germany,8,20

     6 row: ? Italy,13,551

     7 row: ? Netherlands,2,5

     8 row: ? Portugal,2,1182

     9 row: ? EU -total,34,1824

RESULT:

Subterritory        Outbreaks   P r i m a r y     S e c o n d a r y        Prim/Sec.

                              T o t a l      Total     Rate      Total     Rate          R a t i o

                                                                                                                 1 :

Denmark                   23             2       0.0870         21      0.9130      10.5000

Greece                      10              3       0.3000          7       0.7000        2.3333

United Kingd.           2              2       1.0000          0       0.0000        0.0000

France                      40              2       0.0500        38       0.9500      19.0000

Germany                  28              8       0.2857        20       0.7143        2.5000

Italy                        564            13       0.0230      551       0.9770      42.3846

Netherlands              7              2       0.2857          5        0.7143       2.5000

Portugal               1184              2       0.0017    1182       0.9983    591.0000

EU -total              1858            34       0.0183    1824       0.9817      53.6471

 

 

 

       12-COMPLEMENTARY SUBPROGRAMMES - II

       =======================================

  

    1-Health rates' adjustment based on category structure standards

       2-Morbidity/mortality adjustment based on category rates' standards

       3-Two populations rates' adjustment based on standard proportions

       4-Two populations rates' adjustment based on category standards

       5-Selection of methods for specific disease control programme

       6-Survey response rate

       7-Dilution of solution for disinfection, disinfestation, etc.

       8-Summary value of animal products per one veterinarian

       9-Values of individual animal products per one veterinarian

       10-Animal commodity export/import size per one veterinarian

       11-Per capita production of food of animal origin

       12-Selection of priority diseases for control programme

       13-True prevalence estimation based on diag. method detectability

 

 

12.1-POPULATION HEALTH RATES' ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STRUCTURE STANDARDS                                                           (Ref.: Rose, Barker)

This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of stratified morbidity  (incidence, prevalence) rates, mortality rates, etc. using  d i r e c t   standardization based on known standard category structure of the reference  population.

INPUT DATA:

    place, time              ? USA (acc. to Rose-p.35),1968

    species                  ? man                                   category(ies)            ? age

    disease(s)/form          ? heart disease             indicator/rate           ? mortality

    number of stratum groups - subcategories  ? 3

  Do you have relative - proportions (r) or absolute data (a)  on standard category structure  ? a

    List data - subcategory names, numbers of reference population, rates:

 1 : subcategory, number, rate ? 35-44 y.,3443,0.093

 2 : subcategory, number, rate ? 45-54 y.,3604,0.355

 3 : subcategory, number, rate ? 55-64 y.,2953,0.961

RESULT:

       T A B L E  OF  D I R E C T   S T A N D A R D I Z A T I O N

    Subcategory         Subcategory          Subcategory   Standardized

    (Stratum Group)     Proportion               Specific              Rate

                                   of Reference             mortality

    age                          Population                Rate

    35-44 y.                     0.34430                   0.09300             0.03202

    45-54 y.                     0.36040                   0.35500             0.12794

    55-64 y.                     0.29530                   0.96100             0.28378

    T o t a l                     1.0000                                               0.44375

    Direct adjusted (standardized) mortality  rate  of the population  =     0.44375

                                                

12.2-MORBIDITY/MORTALITY ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY  RATES' STANDARDS                                                                          (Ref.: Rose, Barker)

This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of the stratified morbidity (incidence, prevalence) rates, mortality rates, etc. using i n d i r e c t  standardization based on known standard stratum-specific rates of the reference population.

INPUT DATA:

    place, time               ? Czech Republic (acc.Zacek-p.144),1968

    species                   ? man                         category(ies)             ? age

    disease(s)/form           ? general             indicator/rate            ? mortality

    observed cases            ? 60955

    number of stratum-specific groups - subcategories  ? 5

    List data - subcategory names, number in study,  standard rate in reference group:

 1 subcategory, number in study, standard rate ? 0-14 years,1103829,0.00225

 2 subcategory, number in study, standard rate ? 15-34 years,1489216,0.00175

 3 subcategory, number in study, standard rate ? 35-54 years,1166338,0.00525

 4 subcategory, number in study, standard rate ? 55-74 years,914276,0.03376

 5 subcategory, number in study, standard rate ? 75 - years,118365,0.13983

   enter total reference population standard rate, if available: 0.01163

RESULT:

      T A B L E   OF   I N D I R E C T   S T A N D A R D I Z A T I O N

    Subcategory         Number         Standard          Expected

    (Stratum)               in Study        Mortality         Cases

    age                                                    Rate

    0-14 years             1103829           0.0023               2484

    15-34 years           1489216           0.0018               2606

    35-54 years           1166338           0.0053               6123

    55-74 years             914276           0.0338             30866

    75 - years                118365           0.1398             16551

    T o t a l                  4792024           0.0116             58630

                   Indexed rate          =  0.0122

                   Standardizing factor  =  0.9506

                   Standardized rate     =  0.0121

    Adjusted relative risk (standardized mortality ratio) =  observed cases/expected cases =  60955 / 58630  =    103.9656 %

                                                 

12.3-TWO POPULATIONS RATES' COMPARISON ADJUSTMENT BASED ON STANDARD PROPORTIONS                            (Ref.: Jenicek et al., Martin et al.)

(direct standardization based on two populations' category structure)

This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of morbidity or mortality rates (investigation results) in two populations (herds, flocks, groups, etc.) with the same categories (according to sex, age, breed, etc.) but in different proportions influencing the comparison result. The adjusted rate gives the expected rate if the observed stratum-specific rates are applied in a standard population.

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Canada (acc.Martin-p.88),1988

     species, disease(s) ? cattle,pneumonia

     indicator/rate      ? incidence

     category(ies)       ? age of young cattle

     population A, population B ? Saleyard,Ranch

     number of subcategories  ? 2

List data - subcategory names, number in study,  observed cases:

population A:

 1 . subcategory, number in study, cases ? calves,400,112

 2 . subcategory, number in study, cases ? yearlings,100,8

population B (do  n o t   r e p e a t  the name of the subcategory !):

 1 . subcategory:   number of in study, cases ? 50,7

 2 . subcategory:   number of in study, cases ? 450,18

RESULT:

     S U M M A R Y   T A B L E   OF  B A S I C   I N P U T    D A T A

                         P o p u l a t i o n      A                P o p u l a t i o n      B

                       ------------------------------------      --------------------------

 Subcategory  Number  in   Study   Rate       Number   in   Study  Rate

                        --------------------------                  ------------------------

                         Total       Cases                           Total       Cases

 calves              400          112           0.2800           50              7          0.1400

 yearlings         100              8           0.0800         450            18          0.0400

 T o t a l            500          120           0.2400         500            25          0.0500

 

   incidence rate in subcategory 1 of both populations  = 0.2644

   incidence rate in subcategory 2 of both populations  = 0.0473

 

  D I R E C T L Y   A D J U S T E D  ( S T A N D A R D I Z E D )  R A T E S

 Subcategory    Total Number        Population        A        Population        B

                               of both               ---- -------------------        ------------------------

                             Populations         Rate      Number of        Rate      Number of

                                                                             Cases                             Cases

 calves                      450                  0.2800         126              0.1400          63

 yearlings                 550                  0.0800           44              0.0400          22

 T o t a l                  1000                  0.1700         170              0.0850          85

 

  D i r e c t l y   a d j u s t e d   rate of the first population    = 0.1700

  D i r e c t l y   a d j u s t e d   rate of the second population   = 0.0850

    Comparative index    =  0.1700 / 0.0850  =      2.0000

    The adjusted incidence rate of the population A is superior over the population B adjusted rate by 100.0000  %

                                               

12.4-TWO POPULATIONS RATES' COMPARISON ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STANDARDS                                                          (Ref.: Martin et al.)

(indirect standardization based on standard category specific rates)

This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of stratum-specific rates (investigation results)  in two populations (herds, flocks, groups, etc.) with the same  categories (according to sex, age, breed, etc.) but in different proportions influencing the comparison result.

INPUT DATA:

     place, time ? Canada (acc.Martin-p.90),1986

     species, disease(s) ? cattle,BVD

     indicator/rate      ? prevalence

     average rate for standard population ? 0.42

     category(ies)       ? age

     population A, population B ? A,B

     number of observed cases in population A, in population B ? 300,325

     number of subcategories   ? 5

List data - subcategory names, size of population A, population B,  standard population rates :

 1  subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 2-3.9 year,100,25,0.3

 2  subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 4-5.9 year,200,100,0.4

 3  subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 6-7.9 year,150,250,0.5

 4  subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 8-8.9 year,75,150,0.6

 5  subcategory, pop. A, pop. B, standard rate ? 10+ year,50,100,0.7

RESULT:

            SUMMARY  TABLE  OF   B A S I C    I N P U T    D A T A

                          P o p u l a t i o n  A          P o p u l a t i o n  B

                          ----------------------------      ------------------------------

 Subcategory  Number in   Proportion      Number in   Proportion         Standard

 age                    Study                                     Study                                  Population

                                                                                                                            Rates

 2-3.9 year           100             0.1739                   25               0.0400               0.3000

 4-5.9 year           200             0.3478                 100               0.1600               0.4000

 6-7.9 year           150             0.2609                 250               0.4000               0.5000

 8-8.9 year             75             0.1304                 150               0.2400               0.6000

 10+ year               50             0.0870                 100               0.1600               0.7000

 T o t a l               575            1.0000                  625               1.0000

 

 C a s e s             300                                          325

 Crude rate    0.5217                                      0.5200                                        0.4200

 

The rate expected if the standard rates applied in population A = 0.4609

This leads to standardized cases ratio =  113.2075 %

The rate expected if the standard rates applied in population B = 0.5320

This leads to standardized cases ratio =   97.7444 %

    Indirect adjusted rate for the total population A = 0.4755

    Indirect adjusted rate for the total population B = 0.4105

    Comparative index A/B   =  0.4755 / 0.4105  =    115.8200

    Comparative index B/A   =  0.4105 / 0.4755  =     86.3409

    The adjusted prevalence rate of the population A is superior over the population B adjusted rate by  15.8200  %

                                                  

12.5-SELECTION OF METHODS FOR SPECIFIC DISEASE CONTROL PROGRAMME

Assessment of eligibility according to method impact ability - effectivity, inputs availability in a given place/territory and period after analyzing all substantial factors influencing  strategy/measures practicability and probability of success of time-bounded programmes, using grading scales.

Programme  o b j e c t i v e s : disease eradication, elimination, reduction    or containment; losses reduction; disease free population increase, etc.

L e g i s l a t i o n : law, regulations, instructions, standards, etc.

D i a g n o s i s : ability of etiological diagnosis, laboratory capacities,   ability to detect all outbreaks, to confirm disease free status, etc.

A n a l y s i s : obligatory reporting, data processing, active screening,   monitoring, surveillance, disease situation analyses in place and time, etc.

M e a s u r e s : application of preventive and health restoration measures  at field and management levels, logistic, extention, support, etc.

I n p u t   a v a i l a b i l i t y: manpower, funds, equipment, transport,  premises, services, training, etc.

P r o b a b i l i t y : probability to achieve the objectives through  the given method considering given conditions and the weakest components.

INPUT DATA:

disease ? bovine tuberculosis

programme objectives ? elimination (reaching zero prevalence)

place, period ? Czech Republic,1959-1968

Number  of methods (incl. combinations) in consideration ? 3

Scales consist of  g r a d e s  (0 to 10 !).

 method No. 1 : method name: ? test+slaughter

       grades of availability (considering programme objectives):

            legislation, diagnosis, analysis, measures            ? 7,8,8,9

       grades of inputs availability, success probability         ? 9,7

 method No. 2 : method name: ? simple isolation

       grades of availability (considering programme objectives):

            legislation, diagnosis, analysis, measures            ? 8,8,6,10

       grades of inputs availability, success probability         ? 9,1

 method No. 3 : method name: ? depopulation

       grades of availability (considering programme objectives):

            legislation, diagnosis, analysis, measures            ? 8,8,6,10

       grades of inputs availability, success probability         ? 1,10

Importance multiplier coefficients are prefixed:

              legislation                           = 5

              diagnosis                            = 7

              analysis                               = 5

              measures                             = 9

Do you accept these values (y) or you will use other ones (o)? o

Define values  of importance multiplier coefficients fitting better to the given programme objectives, specific disease characteristics, situation and trend as well as  to the conditions influencing the disease and programme implementation:

                    legislation       ? 8

                    diagnosis        ? 9

                    analysis           ? 7

                    measures        ? 10

RESULT:

Method(s)           Grades   of   Availability       Grades    of

                              --------------------------------       --------------------

                               legis-   diag-  analy- mea-     input   proba-      T O T A L

                              lation   nosis   sis   sures       avai-   bility            points

        -------------------------------------------------       labi-     of

        Multiplier      * 8      * 9      * 7     * 10         lity     success

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 test+slaughter     + 7      + 8     + 8      + 9            * 9      * 7               17262

 simple isolatio     + 8      + 8     + 6     + 10           * 9      * 1                 2502

 depopulation       + 8      + 8     + 6     + 10           * 1      * 10               2780

 

         Method(s)           Proportion          Percentage

                                  of the total 22544  allocated points

         test+slaughter       0.7657              76.5703

         simple isolatio       0.1110              11.0983

         depopulation         0.1233              12.3314

         T o t a l                   1.0000             100.0000

                                                   EPIZOO, ver. 4.0, 02-21-2005

12.6-SURVEY RESPONSE RATE                                                                                                                                                                                  (Ref.: Toma et al.)

INPUT DATA:

  purpose of survey      ? to investigate the occurrence of scrapie

  place, time            ? Great Britain - farms with > sheep,1998

survey conducted by: face-to-face inquiry (f), postal service (m),  questionnaire (q), phone (p), postal service (m) or electronic mail (e) ? m

  number of individuals (units) who would have been surveyed if all  had participated (survey sample) ? 11554

  number of individuals (units) who was reached for the survey     ? 7090

  number of completed or returned survey instrument (questionnaire,  interview, etc.)   ? 6362

RESULT:

                   Survey sample rate              =  0.6136

                   Response rate of survey sample  =  0.5506

                   Response rate of surveyed       =  0.8973

                                                

12.7-DILUTION OF SOLUTION FOR DISINFECTION, DISINFESTATION, ETC.

Subprogramme calculates required volume of certain concentration of the solutions for disinfection, disinfestation, treatment, etc.

INPUT DATA:

solution               ? NaOH

purpose                ? disinfection in FMD outbreak

place, time            ? Farm S.,May 1998

required concentration in %                 ? 2.5

volume measure units                       ? liters

total volume of solution required           ? 20000

original concentration in %   (major than required concentration)  ? 50

RESULT:

  1000.00 liters of   50.00 % original solution  must be diluted with  19000.00 liters of diluent  to obtain required  20000.00 liters  of    2.50  % solution

(See also subprogramme 10.8)

                                               

12.8-SUMMARY VALUE OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS PER ONE VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates average summary value of products (produced, traded or consumed) of animal origin per one veterinarian.

place, time ? world,2000

produced (p) or traded (t) or consumed (c)? p

measure units ? MT

How many types of animal products  ? 6

List:  products, value in measure units:

     1  product, value ? beef/veal,56588394

     2  product, value ? mutton/lamb,7611814

     3  product, value ? pig meat,89610731

     4  product, value ? poultry meat,44705717

     5  product, value ? cow milk,489813622

     6  product, value ? hen eggs,51269203

total number of veterinarians:      ? 691370

number of government veterinarians  ? 192020

number of private veterinarians     ? 320346

RESULT:

Total:  739599481 MT

Average value per one veterinarian               =    1069.7593 MT

Average value per one government veterinarian    =    3851.6794 MT

Average value per one private veterinarian       =    2308.7520 MT

                                                

12.9-VALUES OF INDIVIDUAL ANIMAL PRODUCTS PER ONE VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates average individual values of products (produced, traded, exported, imported or consumed) of animal origin per one veterinarian.

place, time ? world,2000

produced (p) or traded (t) or exported (e) or imported (i) or consumed (c) ? p

measure units ? MT

How many types of animal products  ? 8

List:  product, value in measure units:

     1  product, value ? Meat total,232572774

     2  product, value ? Beef/veal,56588394

     3  product, value ? Mutton/lamb,7611814

     4  product, value ? Pig meat,89610731

     5  product, value ? Poultry meat,44705717

     6  product, value ? Cow milk,489813622

     7  product, value ? Hen eggs,51269203

     8  product, value ? Goat meat,3802747

Veterinarians: total (v) or government (g) or private (r) or accredited (a) ? g

      number ? 192020

RESULTS:

  Produced product(s):        Quantity:             Average value per

                                                                              one veterinarian:

  1  Meat total                  232572774 MT             1211.1904 MT

  2  Beef/veal                      56588394 MT               294.7005 MT

  3  Mutton/lamb                 7611814 MT                 39.6407 MT

  4  Pig meat                       89610731 MT               466.6739 MT

  5  Poultry meat                44705717 MT               232.8180 MT

  6  Cow milk                    489813622 MT             2550.8469 MT

  7  Hen eggs                     51269203 MT               266.9993 MT

  8  Goat meat                      3802747 MT                 19.8039 MT

                                          

12.10-ANIMAL COMMODITY EXPORT/IMPORT SIZE PER ONE VETERINARIAN

This subprogramme calculates average summary size of exported or imported  animal commodities per one veterinarian.

place, time ? United Kingdom,1993

measure units ? dollars

export (e) or import (i) ? e

How many types of animal commodities  ? 3

     1  commodity, quantity (in measure units)? live animals,407000000

     2  commodity, quantity (in measure units)? meat,1340000000

     3  commodity, quantity (in measure units)? dairy,902000000

total number of veterinarians      ? 17744

number of government veterinarians ? 859

number of private veterinarians    ? 8870

RESULT:

Commodity:                                      Quantity:

     1   live anim                          407000000 dollars

     2   meat                               1340000000 dollars

     3   dairy                                902000000 dollars

                                     Total:  2649000000 dollars

Average value per one veterinarian                         =    149289.900812 dollars

Average value per one government veterinarian   =   3083818.393481 dollars

Average value per one private veterinarian            =    298647.125141 dollars

                                              

12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN

This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other products) of animal origin per one person according to:   1) product

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? world,2000

     total number of persons ? 6056710000

 List data - names, units,  quantity in measure units:

 1 : product, measure units, quantity ? meat total,kg,232572774000

 2 : product, measure units, quantity ? beef/veal,kg,56588394000

 3 : product, measure units, quantity ? mutton/lamb,kg,7611814000

 4 : product, measure units, quantity ? goat meat,kg,3802747000

 5 : product, measure units, quantity ? pig meat,kg,89610731000

 6 : product, measure units, quantity ? poultry meat,kg,44705717000

 7 : product, measure units, quantity ? cow milk,kg,489813622000

 8 : product, measure units, quantity ? hen eggs,kg,51269203000

RESULT:

     Product            Measure        Quantity            Average

                                 Units                                       per Capita

     meat total             kg           232572774000          38.3992

     beef/veal              kg             56588394000            9.3431

     mutton/lamb        kg               7611814000            1.2568

     goat meat             kg               3802747000            0.6279

     pig meat               kg             89610731000          14.7953

     poultry meat        kg             44705717000            7.3812

     cow milk               kg           489813622000          80.8712

     hen eggs              kg             51269203000            8.4649

                                                

12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN

This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other products) of animal origin per one person according to:   2) place 

INPUT  DATA:

     place, period ? Czech republic,1985

     product ? milk

     product measure units ? liters

 List data - names; quantity in measure units:

 1 : place, persons, product quantity ? C.Bohemia,1137086,711000000

 2 : place, persons, product quantity ? S.Bohemia,695066,634000000

 3 : place, persons, product quantity ? W.Bohemia,873239,522000000

 4 : place, persons, product quantity ? N.Bohemia,1183145,315000000

 5 : place, persons, product quantity ? E.Bohemia,1244452,884000000

 6 : place, persons, product quantity ? S.Moravia,2058020,1007000000

 7 : place, persons, product quantity ? N.Moravia,1958877,626000000

RESULT:

 Place                   Persons      Quantity         Average        Grand   T o t a l

                                                 of Product       per Capita     Proportion     %

 C.Bohemia         1137086       711000000        625.2825         0.1513     15.1309

 S.Bohemia           695066       634000000        912.1436          0.1349    13.4922

 W.Bohemia         873239       522000000        597.7745          0.1111    11.1087

 N.Bohemia         1183145      315000000        266.2396          0.0670      6.7036

 E.Bohemia         1244452       884000000        710.3528          0.1881    18.8125

 S.Moravia         2058020      1007000000       489.3053          0.2143    21.4301

 N.Moravia        1958877        626000000        319.5709         0.1332    13.3220

 T o t a l              9149885      4699000000       513.5584          1.0000  100.0000

                                                 

12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN

This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other products) of animal origin per one person according to:   3) time

INPUT DATA:

     place, period ? Czech Republic,1989-1994

     product ? meat total

     product measure units ? kg

 List data -  quantity in measure units:

 1 : subperiod, persons, product quantity ? 1989,10375000,1288041000

 2 : subperiod, persons, product quantity ? 1990,10360000,1254606000

 3 : subperiod, persons, product quantity ? 1991,10345000,1116762000

 4 : subperiod, persons, product quantity ? 1992,10330000,1107039000

 5 : subperiod, persons, product quantity ? 1993,10296000,1015000000

 6 : subperiod, persons, product quantity ? 1994,10295000,875000000

RESULT:

 Superiod       Persons         Quantity        Average       Grand   T o t a l

                                             of Product      per Capita     Proportion     %

 1989              10375000     1288041000       124.1485         0.1935    19.3503

 1990              10360000     1254606000       121.1010         0.1885    18.8480

 1991              10345000     1116762000       107.9519         0.1678    16.7771

 1992              10330000     1107039000       107.1674         0.1663    16.6311

 1993              10296000     1015000000       98.5820           0.1525    15.2484

 1994              10295000     875000000         84.9927           0.1315    13.1451

 T o t a l         62001000     6656448000      107.3603          1.0000  100.0000

                                                

12.12-SELECTION OF PRIORITY DISEASES FOR CONTROL PROGRAMME

Rough priority selection of the most important diseases  for the control programmes considering all substantial factors influencing  strategy/measures practicability, inputs availability and probability of success.

Explanatory notes:

I m p o r t a n c e: economic, public health, social, ecological, etc.

D i a g n o s i s : ability of etiological diagnosis, laboratory capacities,  ability to detect all outbreaks, to confirm disease free status, etc.

A n a l y s i s : obligatory reporting, data processing, active screening,   monitoring, surveillance, disease situation analyses in place and time, etc.

M e a s u r e s : application of preventive and health restoration measures  at field and management levels, logistic, extention, legislation support    (law, regulations, instructions, standards), public support, etc.

I n p u t   a v a i l a b i l i t y: manpower, funds, equipment, transport,    premises, services, training, etc.

P r o b a b i l i t y : probability to achieve the objectives through    selected method(s) considering given conditions and the weakest components.

INPUT DATA:

place, period ? Czech Republic,1960-1965

Number  of diseases in consideration ? 3

Scales consist of  g r a d e s  (0 to 10 !).

 disease No. 1 : name: ? bovine tuberculosis

       importance grade, grades of availability of necessary  diagnosis, analysis, measures    ? 9,9,8,7

       grades of inputs availability, success probability         ? 9,8

 disease No. 2 : name: ? bovine brucellosis

       importance grade, grades of availability of necessary  diagnosis, analysis, measures    ? 9,10,8,7

       grades of inputs availability, success probability         ? 10,8

 disease No. 3 : name: ? bovine leukosis

       importance grade, grades of availability of necessary  diagnosis, analysis, measures    ? 5,5,6,7

       grades of inputs availability, success probability         ? 4,5

Importance multiplier coefficients are prefixed:

              importance                             = 5

              diagnosis                               = 8

              analysis                                  = 5

              measures                                = 9

Do you accept these values (y) or you will use other ones (o)? o

Define values (1 up to 10 !) of importance multiplier coefficients fitting better to the given programme objectives, specific disease characteristics, situation and trend as well as  to the conditions influencing the disease and programme implementation:

                    importance       ? 8

                    diagnosis         ? 9

                    analysis            ? 6

                    measures          ? 9

RESULT:

Disease                       Impor- Grades of Availability   Grades    of

                                     tance  ------------------------------   ---------------

                                     grade  diag-   analy-   mea-        input   proba-     T O T A L

                                                 nosis   sis        sures       avai-    bility         points

        ------------------------------------------------------------    labi-       of

        Multiplier              * 8       * 9     * 6      * 9              lity      success

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 bovine tuberculosis   + 9       + 9     + 8       + 7              * 9         * 8          19008

 bovine brucellosis      + 9     + 10    + 8        + 7              * 10       * 8          21840

 bovine leukosis           + 5      + 5     + 6        + 7              * 4         * 5           3680

 

          Disease               Proportion          Percentage

                                 of the total 44528  allocated points

    bovine tuberculosis    0.4269              42.6877

    bovine brucellosis      0.4905              49.0478

    bovine leukosis           0.0826                8.2645

         T o t a l                    1.0000             100.0000

                                                

12.13-TRUE PREVALENCE ESTIMATION BASED ON DIAGNOSTIC METHOD DETECTABILITY

This subprogramme evaluates the results of animal population investigation applying diagnostic method detectability value for the estimation of true prevalence rate from apparent prevalence, i.e. based on positive results.

INPUT DATA:

species, disease  ? cattle,tuberculosis

place,time        ? Czechoslovakia,1960

test              ? allergical

     apparent prevalence -  proportion of animals with positive test ? 0.23

     test detectability rate            ? 0.95

RESULT:

     Estimated true prevalence rate among tested animals  =   0.242105  =  24.2105 %

 

 

 

         13-ANNEX I - SELECTED BASIC STATISTICAL METHODS

         ================================================

 

         1-Arithmetic mean and measures of dispersion

         2-Arithmetic mean from grouped data and measures of dispersion

         3-Calculation of proportion and its standard error

         4-Conversion between percentage/proportion and absolute data

         5-Distribution of cumulative frequencies

         6-Chi-square test and contingency tables

         7-McNemar's test - paired chi-square test

         8-Linear regression and correlation coefficient

         9-Fisher's test for small frequencies' comparison

         10-Moving averages - smoothing of time series

         11-Simple arithmetic operations

 

13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION                                                                                                     (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates:     1) arithmetic and geometric mean

INPUT DATA:

     List data:

          1 :    variable value ? 84

          2 :    variable value ? 91

          3 :    variable value ? 72

          4 :    variable value ? 68

          5 :    variable value ? 89

          6 :    variable value ? 78

RESULT:

         Sum of variable values   =     482.0000

         Arithmetic mean          =      80.3333

         Geometric mean           =      79.8806

13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION                                                                                                     (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates:     2) weighted arithmetic mean

INPUT DATA:

     List data:

       1 :  variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 3,82

       2 :  variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 5,86

       3 :  variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 3,90

       4 :  variable, weighted (importance) factor ? 1,70

RESULT:

         Sum of variables                       =      12.0000

         Sum of variables x weighted factors    =    1016.0000

         Weighted arithmetic mean               =      84.6667

                                                  

13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION                                                                                                      (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates:   3) arithmetic mean and measures of dispersion

INITIAL DATA

     List data:

               1 :   variable value ? 12

               2 :   variable value ? 6

               3 :   variable value ? 7

               4 :   variable value ? 3

               5 :   variable value ? 15

               6 :   variable value ? 10

               7 :   variable value ? 18

               8 :   variable value ? 5

RESULT:

       Sum of variable values                         =       76.0000

       Arithmetic mean                                =        9.5000

       Mean deviation (average deviation)             =    +-     4.2500

       Variance (square of the standard deviation)    =       23.750

       Standard deviation  (root mean square of deviation from the mean)  =   +-     4.873

       Coefficient of variation  (coefficient of dispersion; standard deviation/mean)        =       51.30 %

       Range  (from  3   to  18  )                    =       15

 

13.2-ARITHMETIC MEAN FROM GROUPED DATA AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION                                                          (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates:   1) simple arithmetic mean from grouped data

INPUT DATA:

     List data:

               1 : variable value, frequency ? 61,5

               2 : variable value, frequency ? 64,18

               3 : variable value, frequency ? 67,42

               4 : variable value, frequency ? 70,27

               5 : variable value, frequency ? 73,8

RESULT:

         Sum of variable values            =     335.0000

         Sum of frequencies                =     100.0000

         Sum of variables x frequencies    =    6745.0000

         Arithmetic mean from grouped data =      67.4500

 

13.2-ARITHMETIC MEAN FROM GROUPED DATA AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION                                                        (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates:   2) arithmetic mean from grouped data and measures of dispersion

INPUT DATA:

     List data:

               1 :  variable value, frequency ? 61,5

               2 :  variable value, frequency ? 64,18

               3 :  variable value, frequency ? 67,42

               4 :  variable value, frequency ? 70,27

               5 :  variable value, frequency ? 73,8

RESULT:

       Arithmetic mean                               =       67.450

       Mean deviation (average deviation)            = +-     2.265

       Variance (square of the standard deviation)   =        8.528

       Standard deviation   (root mean square of deviation from the mean) = +-     2.920

       Coefficient of variation   (coefficient of dispersion;  standard deviation/mean)      =        4.33 %

                     

13.3-CALCULATIONS OF PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR                                                                                 (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates     1) simple proportion

INPUT DATA:

   Do you want to calculate data of individual variables  with and without a given characteristic  (i)    or simple relation between total number of observations    and  the number of variables of a given characteristic  (r)   ? r

     total number of observations                                  ? 850

     number of variables with a given evaluated characteristic     ? 62

RESULT:

              Proportion    =   0.0729   =   7.2941 %

                                                

13.3-CALCULATIONS OF PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR                                                                                (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates  2) proportion standard error of a sample

INPUT DATA:

     number of representative observations (random sample size) ? 2515

     Do you want to calculate the standard error of  proportion (s) or of percentage (p) ? s

     proportion of variables of a given characteristic          ? 0.133

RESULT:

         Standard error of proportion  =  +- 0.0068

                                                 

13.3-CALCULATIONS OF PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR                                                                                 (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates  2) proportion standard error of a sample

INPUT DATA:

     number of representative observations (random sample size) ? 2515

     Do you want to calculate the standard error  of  proportion (s) or of percentage (p) ? p

     percentage of variables of a given characteristic          ? 13.3

RESULT:

         Standard error of percentage =  +-  0.6771  %

                                               

13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA

This subprogramme calculates:   1) percentage and proportion from absolute data

INPUT DATA:

     total number of basic units (observations) - sample size ? 1120

     number of partial absolute data  for conversion into percentage or proportion ? 5

     List data:

                    1 :   X = ? 1

                    2 :   X = ? 20

                    3 :   X = ? 321

                    4 :   X = ? 5432

                    5 :   X = ? 49800

RESULT:

     Order    Partial                   Proportion    Percentage

                   number (X)

      1            1                               0.0009            0.0893

      2            20                             0.0179            1.7857

      3            321                           0.2866          28.6607

      4            5432                         4.8500        485.0000

      5            49800                     44.4643      4446.4286

 

13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA

This subprogramme calculates:     2) absolute data from percentage or proportion

INPUT DATA:

     total number of basic units (observations) - sample size   ? 1234

     number of data on percentage or proportion  for conversion into absolute values ? 5

     Do you want the conversion from percentages (p) or from proportions (r)            ? p

     List data (in %):

                    1 :  X = ? 0.9

                    2 :  X = ? 11

                    3 :  X = ? 98

                    4 :  X = ? 789

                    5 :  X = ? 9870

RESULTS:

              Order       Percentage (X)     Absolute Value

               1                   0.9000                  11.1060

               2                 11.0000                135.7400

               3                 98.0000              1209.3200

               4               789.0000              9736.2600

               5             9870.0000          121795.8000

 

13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA

This subprogramme calculates:     2) absolute data from percentage or proportion

INPUT DATA:

     total number of basic units (observations) - sample size   ? 65432

     number  of data on percentage or proportion  for conversion into absolute values ? 5

     Do you want the conversion from percentages (p) or from proportions (r)            ? r

     List data:

                    1 :  X = ? 0.64

                    2 :  X = ? 0.0134

                    3 :  X = ? 0.78

                    4 :  X = ? 0.0245

                    5 :  X = ? 0.99

RESULT:

              Order     Proportion (X)     Absolute Value

               1                0.6400                  41876.4791

               2                0.0134                      876.7888

               3                0.7800                  51036.9581

               4                0.0245                    1603.0840

               5                0.9900                  64777.6806

                                                

13.5-DISTRIBUTION OF CUMULATIVE FREQUENCIES

INPUT DATA:

     data type ? serological investigations of cattle on leucosis in Czech Republic during 1986-1992

 List data

          1 : class/category, frequency ? 1986,1480887

          2 : class/category, frequency ? 1987,1655773

          3 : class/category, frequency ? 1988,1617698

          4 : class/category, frequency ? 1989,1529969

          5 : class/category, frequency ? 1990,1248097

          6 : class/category, frequency ? 1991,920931

          7 : class/category, frequency ? 1992,1072737

RESULT:

Order  Class/category       Frequency       Cumulative        Percentage

                                                                        Frequency     of Total Cumulative

                                                                                                    Frequency

  1    1986                            1480887.00        1480887.00            15.55

  2    1987                            1655773.00        3136660.00            32.93

  3    1988                            1617698.00        4754358.00            49.91

  4    1989                            1529969.00        6284327.00            65.97

  5    1990                            1248097.00        7532424.00            79.07

  6    1991                              920931.00        8453355.00            88.74

  7    1992                            1072737.00        9526092.00           100.00

                                                

13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND CONTINGENCY TABLES                                                                                                              (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates :     1) chi-square test

INPUT DATA:

     is the expected frequency constant, yes(y) or no(n)      ? y

     constant expected frequency                              ? 20

     Key observed frequency, one by one:

               1 :  ? 25

               2 :  ? 17

               3 :  ? 15

               4 :  ? 23

               5 :  ? 24

               6 :  ? 16

RESULT:

     Chi-square                                     =    5.0000     with 5 degrees of freedom

     Chi-square after Yates' correction             =    3.8750

     Critical value at the 0.05 significance level  =   11.0710

     The hypothesis zero is not rejected at 0.05 significance level.

 

3.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND CONTINGENCY TABLES                                                                                                                 (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates :     2) frequency test - contingency table 2x2

INPUT DATA:

          value of first group of first class    - a ? 20

          value of first group of second class   - b ? 15

          value of second group of first class   - c ? 80

          value of second group of second class  - d ? 85

RESULT:

    Chi-square                              =    0.8658            with degree of freedom = 1

    Chi-square after Yates' correction      =    0.5541

    Coefficient of contingency              =    0.0657

    Difference is not of statistical significance.

                                               

13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND CONTINGENCY TABLES                                                                                                               (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates :   3) frequency test - contingency table 2x3

INPUT DATA:    (Individual values to be major than 5 !)

          value of first group of first class    - a1 ? 50

          value of first group of second class   - a2 ? 47

          value of first group of third class    - a3 ? 56

          value of second group of first class   - b1 ? 5

          value of second group of second class  - b2 ? 14

          value of second group of third class   - b3 ? 8

RESULT:

     Chi-square value  =    4.8444                          with degrees of freedom  =  2

    Difference is of statistical significance at 10% level (error probability) only.

 

13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND CONTINGENCY TABLES                                                                                                                (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates :   4) frequency test - contingency table 2xN

INPUT DATA:

     Key pairs  of observed values, expected values:

               1 pair:  ? 17,25

               2 pair:  ? 31,25

               3 pair:  ? 29,25

               4 pair:  ? 18,25

               5 pair:  ? 14,25

               6 pair:  ? 20,25

               7 pair:  ? 35,25

               8 pair:  ? 30,25

               9 pair:  ? 20,25

               10 pair:  ? 36,25

RESULT:

       Chi-square value                          =   23.2800

       Chi-square value after Yates' correcture  =   20.5000

       Degrees of freedom  =  9

Statistical significance level of the difference between observed

      and expected distribution see in following chi-square table.

                                                 

13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND CONTINGENCY TABLES                                                                                               (Ref.: Spiegel)

 

         TABLE OF CRITICAL VALUES FOR CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION

         Degree of       Critical  Values  of  chi-square

         Freedom                 at    Level     of

                        10%            5%             1%

         -----------------------------------------------------

              1         2.71           3.84           6.63

              2         4.61           5.99           9.21

              3         6.25           7.81           11.3

              4         7.78           9.49           13.3

              5         9.24           11.1           15.1

              6         10.6           12.6           16.8

              7         12.0           14.1           18.5

              8         13.4           15.5           20.1

              9         14.7           16.9           21.7

             10        16.0           18.3           23.2

             15        22.3           25.0           30.6

             20        28.4           31.4           37.6

             30        40.3           43.8           50.9

             40        51.8           55.8           63.7

             60        74.4           79.1           88.4

                                                 

13.7-McNEMAR'S TEST - PAIRED CHI-SQUARE TEST                                                                                                (Ref.: Navarro)

INPUT DATA:

     problem ? B. abortus serology

     cases, controls ? agglut.,CFT

     factor to be tested  ? diag.res.

     enter the number of pairs in each category:

                                    CONTROLS

                             + diag.res.   - diag.res.

                                 |--------------|--------------|

            + diag.res.   |     38         |     29          |    67

CASES                    |--------------|--------------|

            - diag.res.    |     21         |     1749      |    1770

                                 |--------------|--------------|

                               59             1778          1837

RESULT:

           McNemar's test value =      0.980000

           (P > 0.05)

           The difference is statistically not significant.

                                               

13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION  AND  CORRELATION COEFFICIENT                                                                            (Ref.: Spiegel)

(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)

This subprogramme calculates:     1) linear regression incl. correlation coefficient   (using least squares regression line)

INPUT DATA:

     Number  of points (pairs) >0 to be processed ? 8

          1 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 1,1

          2 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 3,2

          3 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 4,4

          4 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 6,4

          5 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 8,5

          6 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 9,7

          7 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 11,8

          8 pair:  X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 14,9

RESULT:

     The equation of the regression line of Y on X:        Y =      0.55  +     0.64   X

     Correlation coefficient  r          =   0.9770

     Determination coefficient  r^2      =   0.9545

     The equation of the regression line of X on Y:         X =     -0.50  +     1.50   Y

 

     Do you want to calculate (interpolate) individual values  of the regression line Y=A+BX, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     Do you want to calculate the value of 'X'(x) for a given 'Y'  or viceversa the value of 'Y'(y) for a given 'X' ? x                   Key value Y  ? 3

                             X =       3.86

     Do you want to calculate (interpolate) other individual values of the regression line Y=A+BX, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     Do you want to calculate the value of 'X'(x) for a given 'Y'    or viceversa the value of 'Y'(y) for a given 'X' ? y                 Key value X  ? 12

                             Y =       8.18

 

13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION  AND  CORRELATION COEFFICIENT                                                                              (Ref.: Spiegel)

(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)

This subprogramme calculates:    2) simple linear correlation coefficient

INPUT DATA:

               1 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 1,1

               2 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 3,2

               3 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 4,4

               4 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 6,4

               5 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 8,5

               6 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 9,7

               7 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 11,8

               8 pair:     X (independent), Y (dependent)  ? 14,9

RESULT:

       Linear correlation coefficient - r      =    0.9770

       Determination coefficient      - r^2    =    0.9545

                                                

13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION  AND  CORRELATION COEFFICIENT                                                                                 (Ref.: Spiegel)

(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)

This subprogramme calculates:     3) coefficient of rank correlation

        Note: Rank correlation can be used instead of using precise values  of the variables, or when such precision is unavailable.

INPUT DATA:

Data must be ranked in order of size, importance, etc. !

     1 pair: rank number of variables X,Y ? 4,7.5

     2 pair: rank number of variables X,Y ? 2,3.5

     3 pair: rank number of variables X,Y ? 6.5,7.5

     4 pair: rank number of variables X,Y ? 3,1.5

     5 pair: rank number of variables X,Y ? 8.5,10

     6 pair: rank number of variables X,Y ? 1,3.5

RESULT:

            Coefficient of rank correlation =   0.2500

                                                

13.9-FISHER'S TEST FOR SMALL FREQUENCIES' COMPARISON                                                                                 (Ref.: Navarro)

This subprogramme calculates the comparison test when some values are minor than 5 and number of total cases is minor than 60 !

INPUT DATA:

     problem ? Fiction

     variable 'X' ? disease X.

     variable 'Y' ? non-disease X.

 

                                    Variable 'Y'

                                  +              -

                          |--------------|--------------|

                 +       |       1         |       19        |    20

  Variable 'X'    |--------------|--------------|

                 -       |        7         |        3        |    10

                         |--------------|--------------|

                                  8                 22            30

RESULT:

           Fisher's test value = 0.000418

           (P < 0.01)

           The difference is statistically highly significant.

                                                

13.10-MOVING AVERAGES - SMOOTHING OF TIME SERIES                                                                                           (Ref.: Spiegel)

This subprogramme calculates moving averages of order 3 reducing unwanted fluctuation and extreme values - smoothing of time series.

INPUT DATA:

     total period ? 1959-1967

     variables ? number of postmortem findings of cow tuberculosis

     number  of variables ? 9

  List data - name  of time/period, variable value:

                 1 : ? 1959,88494

                 2 : ? 1960,108638

                 3 : ? 1961,117721

                 4 : ? 1962,144495

                 5 : ? 1963,154994

                 6 : ? 1964,119928

                 7 : ? 1965,116151

                 8 : ? 1966,89279

                 9 : ? 1967,59557

RESULTS:

              T A B L E    OF  M O V I N G   A V E R A G E S

           Order    Time/        Variable       Moving average

                        period         value

            1           1959             88494

            2           1960           108638          104951.00

            3           1961           117721          123618.00

            4           1962           144495          139070.00

            5           1963           154994          139805.67

            6           1964           119928          130357.67

            7           1965           116151          108452.67

            8           1966             89279            88329.00

            9           1967             59557

                                             

13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS          1) Additions                 

INPUT DATA:

     Key individual numbers:

          1 . number:  ? 265789

          2 . number:  ? 786543

          3 . number:  ? 9876

          4 . number:  ? 9086

          5 . number:  ? 234

RESULT:

           S u m      =     1071528

 

13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS             2) Subtraction

INPUT DATA:

     basic number                                   ? 2567

     Key individual numbers:

          1 . number:  ? 456

          2 . number:  ? 78

          3 . number:  ? 987

          4 . number:  ? 23

          5 . number:  ? 9

 

RESULT:

         R e s t       =  1014

                                                 

13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS            3) Multiplication   

INPUT DATA:

     basic multiplier number                       ? 342

     Key individual numbers to be multiplied:

          1 . number:   ? 543

          2 . number:   ? 78

          3 . number:   ? 6

          4 . number:   ? 45

          5 . number:   ? 98

RESULT:

          1 . number          543  x  342              =  185706

          2 . number          78  x  342                =  26676

          3 . number          6  x  342                  =  2052

          4 . number          45  x  342                =  15390

          5 . number          98  x  342                =  33516

                                                 

13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS                4) Division

INPUT DATA:

     basic dividing number                       ? 43

     Key individual numbers:

          1 . number:   ? 6785

          2 . number:   ? 89765

          3 . number:   ? 3452

          4 . number:   ? 890

          5 . number:   ? 65

RESULT:

  1 . number          6785  /  43                 =          157.7906976744

  2 . number          89765  /  43               =        2087.5581395349

  3 . number          3452  /  43                 =            80.2790697674

  4 . number          890  /  43                   =            20.6976744186

  5 . number          65  /  43                     =              1.5116279070

                                                

13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS           5) Exponentiation 

INPUT DATA:

     exponent number                                    ?  2

     Key individual numbers:

          1 . number:   ? 342

          2 . number:   ? 56

          3 . number:   ? 12

          4 . number:   ? 9

          5 . number:   ? 65

RESULT:

          1 . number          342  ^  2           =  116964

          2 . number          56  ^  2             =  3136

          3 . number          12  ^  2             =  144

          4 . number          9  ^  2               =  81

          5 . number          65  ^  2             =  4225

                                                

13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS               6) Extraction of roots

INPUT DATA:

     Key individual numbers:

          1 . number:   ? 2456

          2 . number:   ? 765

          3 . number:   ? 89

          4 . number:   ? 675

          5 . number:   ? 32

RESULT:

          1 . number     2456     square root value   =     49.558047

          2 . number     765      square root value    =     27.658633

          3 . number     89       square root value     =      9.433981

          4 . number     675      square root value    =     25.980762

          5 . number     32       square root value     =      5.656854

 

 

 

         14-ANNEX II - OTHER SELECTED STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC METHODS

         ================================================================

 

         1-Test of the difference between two proportions

         2-Test of the difference between two arithmetic means

         3-Test of the difference in means of two small-sized samples

         4-Test of matched comparison between different values in pairs

         5-Confidence intervals estimates for population mean

         6-Confidence intervals estimates for population proportion

         7-Confidence intervals for the difference between means

         8-Confidence intervals for the difference between proportions

         9-Table of Student's 't' critical values

         10-Veterinary service cost and animal population/production values

         11-Conversion between metric and Anglo-Saxon measures

         12-Analysis of critical point of production economic efficiency

         13-Application of interest, discount and inflation rate

         14-Conversion between national currencies' values

         15-Model of budget for animal health programme - I

         16-Model of budget for animal health programme - II

 

 

 

14.1-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO PROPORTIONS     (sample proportions obtained in large samples)             (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

  Do you know which population has major proportion, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

  number of animals of the population with  m a j o r  proportion ? 300

  number of animals of the population with  m i n o r  proportion ? 300

  absolute (a) or relative - proportion( r) or percentage (p) numbers to be used ? a

  first population: number of animals of a given characteristic   ? 225

  second population: number of animals of a given characteristic  ? 195

RESULT:

     Difference between proportions of two populations =    0.1000

     Value of statistical test 'z' =  2.6726

     We can reject null hypothesis at the 0.01 level of significance,    i.e. we can conclude that the difference is with a 0.01 probability  of being wrong.

                                              

14.1-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO PROPORTIONS    (sample proportions obtained in large samples)             (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

  Do you know which population has major proportion, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

  number of animals of the first population   ? 100

  number of animals of the second population  ? 100

  absolute (a) or relative - proportion( r) or percentage (p)  numbers to be used ? p

  first population: % of animals of a given characteristic        ? 75

  second population: % of animals of a given characteristic       ? 65

RESULT:

     Difference between proportions of two populations =    0.1000

     Value of statistical test 'z' =  1.5430

     The difference has not statistical significance.

                                               

14.2-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO ARITHMETIC MEANS   (sample means obtained in large samples)                        (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

number of variables of population with  m a j o r  arithmetic mean ? 36

number of variables of population with  m i n o r  arithmetic mean ? 32

        arithmetic mean of the first population         ? 75

        arithmetic mean of the second population        ? 72

              standard deviation of the first population      ? 6

              standard deviation of the second population     ? 8

RESULT:

       Difference between two arithmetic means       =    3.0000

       Standard deviation of the difference in means =    1.7033

       Statistical test 'z'                          =    1.7613

     Do you want to demonstrate if one mean is major than another  (one-sided test) - (o) or   if one mean is major or minor than the other one  (two-sided test) - (t)   ? t

     We can reject null hypothesis at the 0.1 level of significance only,   i.e. we can conclude that the difference is with a 0.1 probability   of being wrong.

                                               

14.2-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO ARITHMETIC MEANS    (sample means obtained in large samples)                        (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

number of variables of population with  m a j o r  arithmetic mean ? 50

number of variables of population with  m i n o r  arithmetic mean ? 40

        arithmetic mean of the first population         ? 78

        arithmetic mean of the second population        ? 74

              standard deviation of the first population      ? 7

              standard deviation of the second population     ? 8

RESULT:

       Difference between two arithmetic means       =    4.0000

       Standard deviation of the difference in means =    1.5824

       Statistical test 'z'                          =    2.5277

     Do you want to demonstrate if one mean is major than another  (one-sided test) - (o) or  if one mean is major or minor than the other one (two-sided test) - (t)   ? o

     We can reject null hypothesis at the 0.01 level of significance,    i.e. we can conclude that the difference is with a 0.01 probability   of being wrong.

                                                 

14.3-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE IN MEANS OF TWO SMALL-SIZED SAMPLES                                                                                     (Ref.: Putt et al.)

(There must be at least five cases in both samples for the test to be valid !)

INPUT DATA:

number of animals of the first sample with  m a j o r  mean  ? 6

number of animals of the second sample with  m i n o r  mean ? 32

             arithmetic mean of the first sample  ? 75

             arithmetic mean of the second sample ? 72

                     standard deviation of the first sample ? 6

                     standar deviation of the second sample ? 8

RESULT:

   Difference in two means                              =      3.0000

   Standard deviation of the difference in the means      =      3.4492

   Statistical test 't' of the difference                 =      0.8698                        Degrees of freedom                =     36

   See the level of statistical significance  in the table of critical values of Student's 't' in 14.9.

                                                

14.4-TEST OF MATCHED COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT VALUES IN PAIRS                                                                           (Ref.: Putt et al.)

INPUT DATA:

total number of matched pairs of  d i f f e r e n t  values ? 9

         Listf data - variables X,Y :

               1 pair: ? 132,136

               2 pair: ? 160,130

               3 pair: ? 145,128

               4 pair: ? 132,132

               5 pair: ? 140,130

               6 pair: ? 154,125

               7 pair: ? 136,125

               8 pair: ? 134,136

               9 pair: ? 132,120

RESULT:

     Sample mean of the differences              =     11.4444

     Sample standard deviation of the diferences =     11.7200

     Statistical test `t`                        =      2.93                 Degrees of freedom              =      8

     See the level of statistical significance   in the table of critical values of Student's 't' in 14.9

                                               

14.5-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION MEAN                                                                                                     (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

     s a m p l e   size                                  ? 100

     estimate of the true population mean                ? 67.45

     estimate of the true standard deviation             ? 2.93

     Is the sample of a population whith known  total number of animals, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

RESULT:

   Estimates of the confidence intervals for population mean lie at:

          90 %  confidence between         66.9680   and    67.9320

          95 %  confidence between         66.8757   and    68.0243

          99 %  confidence between         66.6941   and    68.2059

          ( The 95% confidence limits =    67.4500  +-     0.5743 )

                                                

14.5-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION MEAN                                                                                                  (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

     s a m p l e   size                                  ? 50

     estimate of the true population mean                ? 75

     estimate of the true standard deviation             ? 10

     Is the sample of a population whith known  total number of animals, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     t o t a l   size  of the animal population         ? 200

RESULT:

   Estimates of the confidence intervals for population mean lie at:

          90 %  confidence between         72.9802   and    77.0198

          95 %  confidence between         72.5935   and    77.4065

          99 %  confidence between         71.8322   and    78.1678

          ( The 95% confidence limits =    75.0000  +-     2.4065 )

                                                 

14.6-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION PROPORTIONS                                                                                 (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

     s a m p l e   size                                            ? 100

     estimate of the true population  p r o p o r t i o n     ? 0.55

     Is the sample of a population with known  total number of animals, yes(y) or no(n) ? y

     t o t a l  size of the animal population                      ? 900

RESULT:

  Estimates of the confidence intervals for true proportion lie at:

          90 % confidence between           0.5462   and     0.5538

          95 % confidence between           0.5454   and     0.5546

          99 % confidence between           0.5440   and     0.5560

          ( The 95% confidence limits =     0.5500  +-     0.0046 )

                                                

14.6-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION PROPORTIONS                                                                                  (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

     s a m p l e   size                                            ? 40

     estimate of the true population  p r o p o r t i o n    ? 0.6

     Is the sample of a population with known  total number of animals, yes(y) or no(n) ? n

RESULT:

  Estimates of the confidence intervals for true proportion lie at:

          90 % confidence between           0.4726   and     0.7274

          95 % confidence between           0.4482   and     0.7518

          99 % confidence between           0.4002   and     0.7998

          ( The 95% confidence limits =     0.6000  +-     0.1518 )

                                             

14.7-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO POPULATION  MEANS                                                     (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

     size of the first sample (with  m a j o r  mean !)       ? 50

     size of the second sample (with  m i n o r  mean !)      ? 100

               arithmetic mean of the first sample            ? 7.82

               arithmetic mean of the second sample           ? 6.75

                      standard deviation of the first sample  ? 0.24

                      standard deviation of the second sample ? 0.3

RESULT:

  Difference between means =      1.0700

  Estimates of the confidence intervals for  the true difference between two population means lie at:

          90 %  confidence between          0.9955   and     1.1445

          95 %  confidence between          0.9812   and     1.1588

          99 %  confidence between          0.9531   and     1.1869

          ( The 95% confidence limits =     1.0700  +-     0.0888 )

                                                

14.8-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPORTIONS                                                                              (Ref.: Spiegel)

INPUT DATA:

 size of the first sample (with proportion of  m a j o r  value !)  ? 600

 size of the second sample (with proportion of  m i n o r  value !) ? 400

 proportions

                          in the first sample (population)          ? 0.5

                          in the second sample (population)         ? 0.25

RESULT:

    Difference between the proportions =  0.2500

    Estimates of the confidence intervals for  true difference between two population proportions lie at:

          90 %  confidence between      0.2011   and  0.2989

          95 % confidence between       0.1917   and  0.3083

          99 % confidence between       0.1732   and  0.3268

        ( The 95% confidence limits  =     0.2500  +-    0.0583 )

 

14.9-TABLE OF CRITICAL VALUES FOR  S T U D E N T'S  't'  DISTRIBUTION

     Degree of   One-sided   Test      Two-sided     Test

     Freedom  -------------------------    ----------------------------

                   5%        1%        0.1%      5%        1%        0.1%

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

      1            6.31      31.8      318       12.7      63.7      637

      2            2.92      6.96      22.3      4.30      9.92      31.61

      3            2.35      4.54      10.2      3.18      5.84      12.88

      4            2.13      3.75      7.17      2.78      4.60      8.61

      5            2.02      3.36      5.89      2.57      4.03      6.87

      6            1.94      3.14      5.21      2.45      3.71      5.96

      7            1.89      3.00      4.79      2.36      3.50      5.41

      8            1.86      2.90      4.50      2.31      3.36      5.04

      9            1.83      2.81      4.30      2.26      3.25      4.78

      10           1.81      2.76      4.14      2.23      3.17     4.59

      15           1.75      2.60      3.73      2.13      2.95     4.07

      20           1.72      2.53      3.55      2.09      2.85     3.85

      30           1.70      2.46      3.39      2.04      2.75     3.65

      40           1.68      2.42      3.31      2.02      2.70     3.55

      60           1.67      2.39                   2.00      2.66

      120         1.66      2.36                   1.98      2.62

      >120       1.65      2.33                   1.96      2.58

                                               

14.10-VETERINARY SERVICE COST AND ANIMAL POPULATION/PRODUCTION  VALUES

This subprogramme calculates the ratios of veterinary service cost to values of animal populations and their production which health protection and wholesomeness the service is jointly responsible for.

INPUT DATA:

place/territory           ? Czech Republic

period                    ? 1988

veterinary service (type) ? government

monetary units            ? million Kcs

veterinary service total cost                      ? 688

veterinary service net cost (total minus income)   ? 253

value of domestic animal populations               ? 50000

value of animal production                         ? 46611

market value of animal production                  ? 40000

RESULT:

      Ratio service cost/population value              =    0.013760     =  1 :   72.674419

      Ratio service cost/production value              =    0.014760     =  1 :   67.748547

      Ratio service cost/production market value       =    0.017200     =  1 :   58.139535

      Ratio service cost/production+population values  =    0.007121  =  1 :  140.422965

      Ratio service net cost/population value          =    0.005060    =  1 :  197.628458

      Ratio service net cost/production value          =    0.005428    =  1 :  184.233202

      Ratio service net cost/production market value   =    0.006325   =  1 :  158.102767

      Ratio service net cost/production+population values =    0.002619   =  1 :  381.861660

                                                

14.11-CONVERSION BETWEEN METRIC AND ANGLO-SAXON MEASURES

     MENU:     (for reverse conversion key the number in negative form,    i.e. with the sign of minus: '- ' ).

              1-inches in centimetres

              2-feet in metres

              3-yards in metres

              4-miles in kilometres

              5-British pints in litres

              6-British gallons in litres

              7-American gallons in litres

              8-American bushels in litres

              9-ounces in grammes

              10-pounds in kilogrammes

              11-Fahrenheit grades in Celsius grades

     Select menu number of the measure to be converted: -11

     Value (X) of the measure to be converted           ? 37

    RESULT:

            37.0000  Celsius grades    =      98.6000  Fahrenheit grades

                                                 

14.12-ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL POINT OF PRODUCTION ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

(break-even analysis; applicable also for service economic efficiency)

     Given  f o u r  of the following variables:   fixed costs, sale price per unit, variable cost per unit,   number of units sold and gross profit,   this subprogramme evaluates the remaining variable.   To calculate the  b r e a k - e v e n  values,  let the gross profit equal zero (= 0).

INPUT DATA:

     production unit ? drug against fasciolosis

     monetary units ? pesos

     S k i p  indicator to be calculated;   the other four data must be available !

          gross profit (benefit)     ?

          number of units sold       ? 1920

          price of unit              ? 13

          total fixed costs          ? 12000

          variable cost per unit     ? 6.75

RESULT:

         Gross profit (benefit)    =         0

                                               

14.12-ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL POINT OF PRODUCTION ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

(break-even analysis; applicable also for service economic efficiency)

     Given  f o u r  of the following variables:  fixed costs, sale price per unit, variable cost per unit,   number of units sold and gross profit,  this subprogramme evaluates the remaining variable.  To calculate the  b r e a k - e v e n  values,  let the gross profit equal zero (= 0).

INPUT DATA:

 

     production unit ? drug against fasciolosis

     monetary units ? pesos

     S k i p  indicator to be calculated;   the other four data must be available !

          gross profit (benefit)     ? 0

          number of units sold       ? 1920

          price of unit              ?

          total fixed costs          ? 12000

          variable cost per unit     ? 6.75

RESULT:

         Price of unit    =     13.00

                                                

14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST, DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE                                                                                         (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates:  1) Changed values applying compound annual interest rate

INPUT DATA:

          monetary units                                ? dollars

          initial value (of present - base year 0)      ? 100

          value of annual interest rate (>0-<1 !)       ? 0.1

          number of years                               ? 5

RESULT:

             F u t u r e   V a l u e s

         End of year   Amount

             1                 110.00

             2                 121.00

             3                 133.10

             4                 146.41

             5                 161.05

                                                

14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST, DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE                                                                                         (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates:     2) Changed values applying annual discount rate

INPUT DATA

          monetary units                            ? dollars

          value to be discounted                    ? 10000

          value of annual discount rate (>0-<1 !)   ? 0.1

          number of years                           ? 10

RESULT:

                                     D i s c o u n t e d    v a l u e s

         End of year         Discount           Amount

                                        factor

             1                          0.9091              9090.91

             2                          0.8264              8264.46

             3                          0.7513              7513.15

             4                          0.6830              6830.13

             5                          0.6209              6209.21

             6                          0.5645              5644.74

             7                          0.5132              5131.58

             8                          0.4665              4665.07

             9                          0.4241              4240.98

             10                        0.3855              3855.43

                                                 

14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST, DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE                                                                                         (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates:      3) Annual interest rate

INPUT DATA:

          monetary units                            ? dollars

          initial value (of present - base year 0)  ? 3897136

          value of the future year (value must be  major than that of the present year)  ? 5350071

          number of years between the present  and future values    ? 10

RESULT:

          TO achieve from the initial value of   3897136.00  dollars  during 10 years the future value of   5350071.00  dollars

                                                                                                                                                        there is a need for annual interest rate of  0.0322

                                                 

14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST, DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE                                                                                       (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates:    4) Number of years to reach a given value

INPUT DATA:

          monetary units                            ? dollars

          initial value (of present - base year 0)  ? 3897136

          final value (of a given future year)      ? 5350071

          value of annual interest rate  (>0-<1 !)  ? 0.0322

RESULT:

     To reach from the initial (present) value of   3897136.00  dollars  the future value of   5350071.00  dollars  when applying annual interest rate of 0.032

                                                                                                                                                        then necessary number of years = 10.00

                                                  

14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST, DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE                                                                                      (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates:     5) Inflation index

INPUT DATA:

     product (service), measure units, quantity ? milk,liters,12500

     monetary units   ? dollars

     base year        ? 1980

     determinate year ? 1990

 S k i p  indicator to be calculated! All other three data must be available:

          average price in the base year                      ? 1.2

          average price in the determinate year               ? 1.7

          cost of a given quantity of product(service)   in the base year     ? 15000

          cost of the same quantity of the product(service)   in the determinate year      ?

RESULT:

     Cost in the determinate year    =    21250  dollars

     Inflation index between the year 1980 and the year 1990  =   41.6667  i.e. average annual change to base year value   =    4.1667 %

                                                

14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST, DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATE                                                                                     (Ref.: Putt et al.)

This subprogramme calculates:    6) Changed values applying annual inflation rate

INPUT DATA:

          monetary units                                 ? dollars

          initial value (of base year 0)                 ? 1000

          value of annual inflation  r a t e  (>0-<1 !)  ? 0.1

          number of years                                ? 10

RESULT:

     End of    Amount = Initial  Reduced Future

        Year         Value                Values

          1           1100.00               909.09

          2           1210.00               826.45

          3           1331.00               751.31

          4           1464.10               683.01

          5           1610.51               620.92

          6           1771.56               564.47

          7           1948.72               513.16

          8           2143.59               466.51

          9           2357.95               424.10

          10         2593.74               385.54

                                               

14.14-CONVERSION BETWEEN NATIONAL CURRENCIES' VALUES

INPUT DATA:

          currency A  ? dollar

          currency B  ? Czech crown

  Answer only one question of the four (skip other three questions):

     value of one unit of A currency in B currency   ? 23.4

     value of one unit of B currency in A currency   ?

     values of a given product (service)   in A currency, in B currency          ?

     prices of a unit of a given product (service)  in A currency, in B currency          ?

RESULT:

     Rate   Czech crown to dollar   =   1  :     0.0427

                                                

14.15-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - I

This subprogramme calculates the budget up to 5 years' period providing that the basic costs for individual components as well as the   i n f l a t i o n   rate are  t h e   s a m e  in each year.

INPUT DATA

     programme ? fictitious

     place, period ? X.,1991-1995

     duration of the programme in years (up to 5 !)              ? 5

     monetary units                                              ? Kc

     calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n)               ? y

     inflation  r a t e  (number between >0 and <1 !)            ? 0.04

A n n u a l   c o s t  of individual components:

     1. personnel                      ? 123000

     2. administrative support         ? 20700

     3. duty travel                    ? 32000

     4. subcontracts                   ? 45600

     5. training                       ? 12987

     6. expendable equipment           ? 35609

     7. non-expendable equipment       ? 57000

     8. premises                       ? 41000

     9. operation and maintenance      ? 12000

     10. other expenditure             ? 32000

RESULT:

 Budget component  T o t a l       1. year    2. year     3. year   4. year     5.year

 1 Personnel                666208       123000    127920    133037    138358    143893

 2 Admin.support       112118         20700     21528      22389       23285     24216

 3 Duty travel              173322         32000     33280      34611       35996     37435

 4 Subcontracts           246985        45600     47424      49321       51294     53346

 5 Training                     70342         12987     13506      14047       14609     15193

 6 Expend.equip.         192869         35609     37033      38515       40055     41657

 7 Non-exp.eqip.         308730         57000     59280      61651       64117     66682

 8 Premises                  222069         41000     42640      44346       46119     47964

 9 Operat./maint.           64995         12000     12480      12979       13498     14038

 10 Other                      173322         32000     33280      34611       35996     37435

  T o t a l                     2230962       411896   428372    445507    463327    481860

 

14.15-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - I

This subprogramme calculates the budget up to 5 years' period providing that the basic costs for individual components as well as the   i n f l a t i o n

rate are  t h e   s a m e  in each year.

INPUT DATA

     programme ? fictitious

     place, period ? X.,1991-1995

     duration of the programme in years (up to 5 !)              ? 5

     monetary units                                              ? Kc

     calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n)               ? n

A n n u a l   c o s t  of individual components:

     1. personnel                      ? 10000

     2. administrative support         ? 20000

     3. duty travel                    ? 30000

     4. subcontracts                   ? 44000

     5. training                       ? 5400

     6. expendable equipment           ? 45000

     7. non-expendable equipment       ? 67000

     8. premises                       ? 34000

     9. operation and maintenance      ? 5600

     10. other expenditure             ? 43000

RESULT:

Budget component   T o t a l    1. year     2. year    3. year    4. year    5.year

 1 Personnel                 50000        10000     10000      10000      10000     10000

 2 Admin.support      100000       20000      20000      20000      20000     20000

 3 Duty travel             150000       30000      30000      30000      30000     30000

 4 Subcontracts         220000       44000      44000      44000      44000     44000

 5 Training                    27000         5400        5400        5400       5400        5400

 6 Expend.equip.        225000       45000      45000      45000      45000     45000

 7 Non-exp.eqip.        335000       67000      67000      67000      67000     67000

 8 Premises                 170000       34000      34000      34000      34000     34000

 9 Operat./maint.          28000         5600        5600       5600        5600        5600

 10 Other                     215000       43000      43000      43000     43000      43000

  T o t a l                   1520000      304000    304000    304000   304000    304000

                                               

14.16-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - II

This subprogramme calculates the budget up to 5 years' period for up to 10 components to be  d e f i n e d  by the  u s e r , providing that the basic costs for individual  components as well as the eventual inflation rate are the same in each year.

INPUT DATA

     programme ? fictitious

     place, period ? B.,1991-1995

     duration of the programme in years                 ? 5

     monetary units ? Kc

     calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n)               ? y

     inflation  r a t e  (number between >0 and <1 !)            ? 0.05

     how many budget components                       ? 4

A n n u a l   c o s t s

            of individual components:

 1    component name, cost    ? personnel,98000

 2    component name, cost    ? vaccine,19800

 3    component name, cost    ? equipment,45000

 4    component name, cost    ? transport,18600

RESULT:

Budget component  T o t a  l    1. year    2. year     3. year    4. year     5.year

 1 personnel               541512       98000     102900    108045    113447    119120

 2 vaccine                   109408       19800       20790      21830      22921      24067

 3 equipment              248654       45000       47250      49613      52093      54698

 4 transport                102777       18600       19530      20507      21532      22608

  T o t a l                   1002350     181400     190470    199994    209993    220493