Comprehensive system of
quantitative methods for animal population health/disease analyses and
programming
E P I Z M E T H
(4.0a version, 2003)
contains information on f o r m
u l a e and p r o c
e d u r e s of the methods used in EPIZOO software package for animal
population health analysis and programming
Author: Prof.MVDr. Vaclav K o u b a , PhD, DrSc.
Former:
Chief of Animal Health Service, Food
and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations (FAO),
EPIZOO is applicable on any
animal species, any disease at any time and in any place.
The methods have been tested and used in
practice for animal population health and disease analyses and control
programmes at local, national and international levels. The software is
applicable to any species of animal kingdom, i.e. including Homo sapiens. EPIZOO software is available free of charge
in internet - www.cbox.cz/vaclavkouba/software/software.zip.
I N F O R M A T I O N
AND I N S T R U C T I O N S:
a) EPIZMETH
describes methods - formulae, their components and calculation procedures of indicators as well as results
construction used in EPIZOO software
package for animal population health analysis and programming.
b) In selected
generally known basic statistical methods are mentioned the references to bibliographical sources
only.
c) EPIZMETH
explanatory structure and menu are compatible with EPIZOO.
d) Formulae
symbols: capital letter = numeric variable; letter(s) following by '$' = variable in a form of text (string);
variable following by '(I)' = loop component of a set of variables (sequence of
instruction 'again and again') usually
introduced by 'FOR I=1 TO N'.
e) Arithmetic
operators: + addition; - subtraction; * multiplication; / division; ^ exponentiation; SQR =
square-root function.
f) Abbreviation
'epi.' = epizootiological or epidemiological.
g) For printing under
MS DOS using PRINT SCREEN key or under WINDOWS a word processing software *) to be used.
h) More
information on EPIZOO see in www.cbox.cz/vaclavkouba
and in author's articles published in:
- Rev.sci.tech. Office International des
Epizooties, 1994, 13 (3), 637-650
- Bulletin of the World Health Organization,
1995, 73 (1), 77-83
- Rev.sci.tech. Office International des
Epizooties, 1997, 16 (3), 793-799.
j) EPIZOO can be
started by going out from EPIZMETH and keying 'epizoo'.
k) The software
may be freely copied.
-----------------------------------
*) Notes: Open a
new file in WORD where the copied parts to
be pasted; place cursor on the upper bar
of EPIZOO ( EPIZMETH) window and press right mouse button; select EDIT - MARK;
place cursor in the EPIZOO (or EPIZMETH) window left upper corner and pressing left mouse button highlight the contents
to be printed; place cursor on the upper EPIZOO (EPIZMETH) window bar and press right mouse button; select EDIT
- COPY to Enter; open the WORD file; locate cursor where the window contents to be printed; select EDIT - PASTE; select FILE
- PRINT.
EPIZOO and EPIZMETH under MSDOS have been
using full screen. Under WINDOWS they start using smaller part of the screen;
for EPIZOO (EPIZMETH) window expanding into full screen following procedure to
be used: place cursor on the upper EPIZOO (EPIZMETH) window bar and press right
mouse button; select: PROPERTIES – DISPLAY OPTION – FULL SCREEN – OK – APPLY
PROPERTIES – SAVE PROPERTIES for future
windows with the same title – OK.
Sources of
EPIZOO software methodology:
Majority of EPIZOO
methods are based on author's publications, mainly:
Kouba V. - (1987): Epizootiología
general. 2nda edición. Edición Pueblo y
Educación, Instituto del Libro, La Habana, 887 pp.
Kouba V. - (1994): General Epizootiology.
University of Veterinary Sciences,
Kouba V. – (2004): Epizootiology
Principles and Methods.
Other bibliographical
sources (referred in the subprogrammes):
1) Astudillo V.M.,Malaga H., Wanderley M. (1976).- Estadistica
descriptiva en salud animal. OSP, Centro
Panamericano de Fiebre Aftosa, Rio de Janeiro.
2) Cannon R.M.,Roe
R.T.(1982).- Livestock disease surveys: A field manual for veterinarians. Australian Gvt.Publishing
Service,
3) Jenicek M.,Cleroux R. (1982).- Epidemiologie:Principes.Techniques. Applications. Edisem, St.Hyacinthe,
4) Kubankova
V.,Hendl J. (1986).- Statistika pro zdravotniky. Avicenum/Zdravotnicke nakladatelstvi, Praha.
5) Lon Poole
(1982).- Programmi practici in BASIC. Edizione Italiana.
Grupo Editoriale Jackson, Milano.
6) MacDiarmid
S.C.(1993).- Risk analysis and the importation of animals and animal products.
Rev.sci.tech.Off.int.Epiz.,12(4),1093-1107.
7) MacMahon
B.,Pugh T.F.,Ipsen J. (1960).- Epidemiological Methods. Little, Brown and Company,
8) Martin
S.W.,Meek A.H.,Willeberg P. (1987).- Veterinary epidemiology - principles and methods.
9) Morley
R.S.(1993).- A model for the assessment of the animal disease risk associated with the importation of animals
and animal products. Rev.sci.
tech.Off.int.Epiz.,12(4),1055-1092.
10) Navarro R. Fierro (1987).- Introduccion a la bioestadistica.
Analisis de variables binarias.
McGraw-Hill de Mexico.
11) Putt S.N.H. et al.(1987).- Veterinary epidemiology and economics in
12) Rose G.,
Barker D.J.P. (1990).- Epidemiology for the Uninitiated. Latimer Trend & Co Ltd,
13) Spiegel M.R.
(1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc.,
14) Toma B. et al.
(1999).- Applied veterinary epidemiology and the control of disease in populations. AEEMA,
15) Yamane Taro
(1979).- Elementary Sampling Theory.
16)
M A I N M
E N U
OF INFORMATION ON 'EPIZOO'
SUBPROGRAMMES
1-Animal population - characteristics
of health importance
2-Animal population health/disease
analysis - basic indicators
3-Selected indicators of animal
population health structures
4-Selected indicators of epizootic
process dynamics
5-Selected indicators of animal
disease risk assessment
6-Consequences of animal population
health and disease
7-Investigations of animal population
health situation
8-Methods related to sampling in
population investigations
9-Selected aspects of animal
population health programmes
10-Cost and efficiency of animal
population health programmes
11-Complementary subprogrammes - I
12-Complementary subprogrammes - II
13-Annex I - Selected basic statistical
methods
14-Annex II - Other selected
statistical and economic methods
1-ANIMAL POPULATION -
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF HEALTH IMPORTANCE
1-Animal
population size and species structure
2-Animal
population categories (strata) structure
3-Animal
population territorial distribution
4-Breeding/production conditions influencing animals distribution
5-Ecological conditions influencing animal population distribution
6-Selected indicators related to disease resistant animals
7-Selected indicators related to disease susceptible animals
8-Animal
population production per animal, input, space and time
9-Animal
population dynamics - 'vertical movement'
10-Estimation of animals number according to
survival rates
11-Estimation of number of wild animals (vertebrates+invertebrates)
12-Estimation of animal population size based on capture/recapture
13-Estimation of animal population size based on average density
1.1-ANIMAL POPULATIONS SIZE AND SPECIES STRUCTURE
(applicable also
on the etiological agents' vectors and reservoirs)
INPUT DATA:
animal populations - P$ place (territory, land, sector, etc.) -
PL$ time - TI$
number of evaluated animal species - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I:
species - S$(I)
animals - U#(I)
SU = sum of U#(I)
SPECIES STRUCTURE OF
ANIMAL POPULATION
Species Absolute Proportion Percentage
Number
S$(I)
U#(I)
U#(I)/SU (U#(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.000000 100.0000
1.2-ANIMAL POPULATION CATEGORIES (STRATA) STRUCTURE
(according to age, sex, weight, breed,
physiological stage, nutrition status,
immunity status, type/level of productivity, type of breeding, type of exploitation, production stage,
technology, concentration, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
place - PL$; time - TI$
animal species - SP$ category according to - CA$
number of subgroups within this category -
N
FOR I=1 TO N
I:
name of subgroup (category) -
SG$(I)
number of animals - NA#(I)
SU# = sum of
NA#(I)
C A T E G O R Y S T R U C T U R E OF
ANIMAL POPULATION
Category Number of Proportion Percentage
Subgroup Animals
SG$(I) NA#(I) NA#(I)/SU# (NA#(I)/SU#)*100
T o t a l SU#
1.000000 100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
This
subprogramme calculates: animal population - territorial density and
distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory) - PL$ ; time - TI$
animal species - SP$; category(ies) - CA$
space measure unit - SU$
number of data on space and animals - N
FOR I=1 TO N
subterritory - TE$(I)
size - TS#(I)
number of animals - AN#(I)
SU1# = sum of
TS#(I)
SU2# = sum of
AN#(I)
ANIMAL
P O P U L A T I O N -
TERRITORIAL DENSITY AND
DISTRIBUTION
Subterritory
SU$ Number of Average
Proportion
Percentage
Animals Density
TE$(I)
TS#(I)
AN#(I)
AN#(I)/TS#(I)
AN#(I)/SU2# (AN#(I)/SU2#)*100
T o t a l SU1# SU2# SU2#/SU1# 1.000000 100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION
TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
This subprogramme calculates:
farms - average number of animals and
territorial distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory) - PL$ ;
time - TI$
animal species - SP$;
category(ies) - CA$
farm type - FT$
number of data on space and
animals - N
FOR I=1 TO N
subterritory - TE$(I)
number of farms - TS#(I)
number of animals - AN#(I)
SU1# = sum of TS#(I)
SU2# = sum of AN#(I)
F A R M S: AVERAGE NUMBER OF ANIMALS AND TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
Subterritory Farms
Number of Average Proportion Percentage
Animals Number
TE$(I) TS#(I) AN#(I)
AN#(I)/TS#(I) TS#(I)/SU1# (TS#(I)/SU1#)*100
T o t a l SU1# SU2# SU2#/SU1#
1.000000
100.0000
1.3-ANIMAL POPULATION
TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
This subprogramme calculates:
animal population - simple territorial
distribution
INPUT DATA
place (territory) - PL$ ;
time - TI$
animal species - SP$;
category(ies) - CA$
number of data on space and
animals - N
FOR I=1 TO N
subterritory - TE$(I)
number of animals - AN#(I)
SU1# = sum of TS#(I)
SU2# = sum of AN#(I)
ANIMAL P O P U L A T I O N -
TERRITORIAL D I S T R I B U T I
O N
Subterritory Number
of Proportion Percentage
Animals
TE$(I) AN#(I) AN#(I)/SU2# (AN#(I)/SU2#)*100
T o t a l SU2# 1.000000 100.0000
1.4-BREEDING/PRODUCTION
CONDITIONS INFLUENCING ANIMALS DISTRIBUTION
(animal breeding/production
exploitation, technology, concentration, housing, herd/flock/farm size, management, economic
sector, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
type of breeding/production
conditions - EC$
place - PL$; time - TI$
criterion for subgrouping -
CA$
measure units (animals or
others) - MU$
number of evaluated subgroups
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: names of subgroups - SG$(I)
number of measure units
- NA(I)
SU = sum of NA(I)
BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS
INFLUENCING DISTRIBUTION OF ANIMALS
Subgroup MU$ Proportion Percentage
SG$(I) NA(I) NA(I)/SU (NA(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU 1.000000 100.0000
1.5-ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
INFLUENCING ANIMALS DISTRIBUTION
[atmospherical, geospherical,
hydrospherical and biospherical (flora, fauna)
factors, hygiene, etc.]
INPUT DATA:
type of ecological conditions
- EC$
place - PL$; time - TI$
criterion for subgrouping -
CA$
ecological conditions measure
units - MU$
number of evaluated subgroups
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: names of subgroups - SG$(I)
number of measure units
- NA(I)
SU = sum of NA(I)
ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
INFLUENCING ANIMAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
Subgroup MU$ Proportion Percentage
SG$(I) NA(I)
NA(I)/SU (NA(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.000000 100.0000
1.6-SELECTED INDICATORS
RELATED TO DISEASE RESISTANT ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species - SP$; category(ies)
- CA$
type/form of population
resistance - RE$
place - LU$
Do you want information on
point prevalence at a given moment
(m) or indicators related to a given
period (p) ? m
time-moment - TI$
total number of animals
existing at the given moment - A
number of resistant animals
existing at the given moment - ER
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
resistant animals = ER/A
= (ER/A)*100 %
1.6-SELECTED INDICATORS
RELATED TO DISEASE RESISTANT ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species - SP$; category(ies)
- CA$
type/form of population
resistance - RE$
place - LU$
Do you want information on
point prevalence at a given moment (m) or indicators related to a given period (p) ? p
time-period - TI$
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the period
- D
total number of animals
existing in the period - B
average number of animals in
the period - C
number of resistant animals
existing at the beginning of the
period - DR
number of resistant animals
existing in the period - FR
average number of resistant
animals in the period - GR
number of new resistant
animals in the period -
HR
number of extinct resistant
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+with immunity end) in the period - IR
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of resistant animals = DR/D
Period prevalence rate of
resistant animals = FR/B
Average prevalence rate of
resistant animals = GR/C
Incidence rate of resistant
animals to existing total = HR/B
Incidence rate of resistant
animals to average total = HR/C
Incidence rate of resistant
animals to initial total =
HR/D
Extinction rate of resistant
animals to existing total = IR/B
Extinction rate of resistant
animals to average total = IR/C
Extinction rate of resistant
animals to initial total =
IR/D
1.7-SELECTED INDICATORS
RELATED TO DISEASE SUSCEPTIBLE ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species - SP$; category(ies)
- CA$
type of population
susceptibility - SU$
place - LU$
Do you want information on
point prevalence at a given moment
(m) or indicators related to a given
period (p) ? m
time-moment - TI$
total number of animals
existing at the given moment
- A
number of susceptible animals
existing at the given moment - ES
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of
susceptible animals = ES/A
= (ES/A)*100 %
1.7-SELECTED INDICATORS RELATED
TO DISEASE SUSCEPTIBLE ANIMALS
INPUT DATA:
species - SP$; category(ies)
- CA$
type of population
susceptibility - SU$
place - LU$
Do you want information on
point prevalence at a given moment (m)
or indicators related to a given
period (p) ? p
time-period - TI$
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the period -
D
total number of animals
existing in the period - B
average number of animals in
the period - C
number of susceptible animals
existing at the beginning of the period -
DS
number of susceptible animals
existing in the period - FS
average number of susceptible
animals in the period - GS
number of new susceptible
animals in the period - HS
number of extinct susceptible
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+immunized) in the period - IS
RESULT:
Initial point prevalence rate
of susceptible animals =
DS/D
Period prevalence rate of
susceptible animals =
FS/B
Average prevalence rate of
susceptible animals =
GS/C
Incidence rate of susceptible
animals to existing total = HS/B
Incidence rate of susceptible
animals to average total = HS/C
Incidence rate of susceptible
animals to initial total =
HS/D
Extinction rate of
susceptible animals to existing total = IS/B
Extinction rate of
susceptible animals to average total
= IS/C
Extinction rate of
susceptible animals to initial total =
IS/D
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE
PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 1) animal
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) - SP$,CA$
total number of animals - AN
number of data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: product, measure units, total quantity -
P$(I),U$(I),Q#(I)
A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N A V E R A G E P R O D U C T I O N
Product Measure Quantity Average
Units per Animal
P$(I) U$(I)
Q#(I) Q#(I)/AN
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE
PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 2) input
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
animal product - PR$
product measure units - MU$
total quantity of product -
Q#
number of data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: input type, measure units, input value -
IN$(I),U$(I),Q#(I)
A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N A V E R A G E P R O D U C T I O N
Input Input Input Average Input Average
MU$
Type Unit Quantity Units per MU$ per
Input Unit
IN$(I) U$(I) Q#(I) Q#(I)/Q# Q#/Q#(I)
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE
PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 3) space
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
animal product - PR$
product measure units - MU$
space measure unit - U$
number of data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: place, size, total product quantity -
IN$(I),S(I),Q#(I)
T# = sum of Q#(I)
S = sum of S(I)
A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N A V E R A G E P R O D U C T I O N
Place Size Quantity Average MU$
U$
of Product per U$
Proportion %
IN$(I) S(I) Q#(I)
Q#(I)/S(I) Q#(I)/T#
(Q#(I)/T#)*100
T o t a l S
T#
T#/S
1.0000
100.0000
1.8-ANIMAL POPULATION AVERAGE
PRODUCTION PER ANIMAL, INPUT, SPACE AND TIME
This subprogramme calculates
average animal production per: 4) time
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
animal product - PR$
product measure units - MU$
time measure unit - U$
number of data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: subperiod, duration, total product
quantity - IN$(I),S(I),Q#(I)
T# = sum of Q#(I)
S = sum of S(I)
A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N A V E R A G E P R O D U C T I O N
Superiod Duration Quantity
Average MU$
U$ of Product
per U$ Proportion %
IN$(I) S(I)
Q#(I)
Q#(I)/S(I) Q#(I)/T#
(Q#(I)/T#)*100
T o t a l S
T#
T#/S
1.0000
100.0000
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates :
1) combination of the numbers of
existing, new and extinct animals
INPUT DATA
place, time-period - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
Question about indicator to be calculated to be left without the answer
! The other three data must be given !
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period - AO#
number of new born and
introduced animals in the period - AN#
number of extinct (dead+slaughtered+removed)
animals in the period - AE#
number of animals existing at
the end of the period - AF#
RESULT:
Number of animals at the end
of the period =
AO#+AN#-AE#
Number of animals at the
beginning of the period = AF#-AN#+AE#
Number of new animals in the
period =
AF#-AO#+AE#
Number of extinct animals in
the period =
AO#-AF#+AN#
Number of animals existing in
the period =
AO#+AN#
Number of animals existing in
the period =
(AF#-AN#+AE#)+AN#
Number of animals existing in
the period =
(AF#-AO#+AE#)+AO#
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 2) animal population replacement (restocking) rates
INPUT DATA
place, time-period - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period - AO
number of new born animals in
the period - AB
number of animals introduced
in the period - AI
number of animals existing in
the period - AP
average number of animals
existing in the period - AA
duration (in days) of one
population reproduction cycle - RC
RESULT:
Replacement (restocking)
rate to initial number of animals =
(AB+AI)/AO
Replacement (restocking)
rate to existing number of animals =
(AB+AI)/AP
Replacement (restocking)
rate to average number of animals = (AB+AI)/AA
Annual proportion of
reproduction cycle = 365/RC
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates : 3) estimate of number of animals within one
regular generation cycle
INPUT DATA
place, time-period - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
number of animals at the
beginning of the period - AO
duration (in days) of one
regular generation (replacement)
cycle - RC
duration (in days) between the
initial and evaluated days within the
generation cycle - PX
RESULT:
Estimated number of animals
existing at the beginning and still
remaining +/ at the evaluated day =
AO*(1-PX/RC)
+/ If not removed prematurely
and in absence of migration.
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 4) estimate of number of animals within one regular c o n t i n u i n g production/breeding cycle
INPUT DATA
place, time-period - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
number of animals at the
beginning of the period -
AOP
duration (in days) of one
regular c o n t i n u i n g production/breeding (replacement) cycle - PPC
duration (in days) between
the initial and evaluated days within
the production/breeding cycle - PPX
RESULT:
Estimated number of animals
existing at the beginning and still
remaining +/ at the evaluated day =
AOP*(1-PPX/PPC)
+/ If not removed prematurely
and in absence of migration.
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 5) addition and withdrawal rates of animal population (applicable also on
import/export of animals)
INPUT DATA
place, time-period - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the period
- D
total number of animals
existing in the period - B
average number of animals
existing in the period - C
number of new (born+introduced)
animals in the period - H
number of extinct animals
(dead+slaughtered+removed) in the
period - I
RESULT:
Addition rate of animals to
existing total =
H/B
Addition rate of animals to
average total =
H/C
Addition rate of animals to initial total = H/D
Withdrawal rate of animals
to existing total =
I/B
Withdrawal rate of animals
to average total =
I/C
Withdrawal rate of animals
to initial total =
I/D
Balance between additions
and withdrawals = H-I
Ratio of animal population
additions/withdrawals = H/I
Ratio of animal population
withdrawals/additions = I/H
1.9-ANIMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
- 'VERTICAL MOVEMENT'
This subprogramme calculates
: 6) simple model of animal population growth
INPUT DATA
place, time-period - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
number of animals at the
beginning of the period - AI
number of planned subperiods
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: subperiod - SU$(I)
supposed number of new
(born+introduced) animals - IN(I)
supposed number of extinct
(dead+slaughtered+removed) animals - EX(I)
SIMPLE MODEL
FOR A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N G R O W T H
IN = cumulative sum of IN(I)
EX = cumulative sum of EX(I)
Subperiod New Extinct FINAL
SU$(I) IN(I)
EX(I) (AI+IN-EX)
Total IN
EX (AI+IN-EX)
1.10-ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF
ANIMALS ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES (after a series of subperiods; in absence of
migration)
INPUT DATA:
place, period - LU$,PE$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
total number of animals at the
beginning - A
number of subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
names of subperiods - NA$(I)
coefficients of survival
probability in form of proportion, (number between 0 and 1): X(I)
R = cumulative X(I) multiples
ESTIMATION OF NUMBERS OF ANIMALS ACCORDING TO S U R V I V A L RATES
From the initial number A of animals after N subperiods it can be estimated about (R*A) surviving animals.
S = partial cumulative sum of X(I) multiples
Subperiod Survival Cumulative Animals
Rate Survival at
the End
Rate of Subperiod
NA$(I) X(I)
S
S*A
T o t a l R R*A
1.11-ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER
OF WILD ANIMALS (VERTEBRATES AND INVERTEBRATES)
(rough estimates based on territory population samples investigations)
INPUT DATA:
animal species - SP$
territory, time - PL$,TI$
surface measure units - MU$
total territory in surface
measure units - NT
number of selected
representative subterritories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
subterritory names - NA$(I)
total size surface units -
SU(I)
investigated surface size -
IN(I)
number of found animals -
T = sum of ((SU(I)*(
SU = sum of SU(I)
IN = sum of IN(I)
E S T I M A T E S O F T
H E N U M B E R O F
W I L D A N I M A L S
S u
r f a c e in MU$ A n
i m a
l s
Selected ------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Represent. Total Investi- Terri-
Found Average
Estimate Propor-
Sub- gated tory
Pro- per MU$ of
Total tion
territory portion
NA$(I) SU(I)
IN(I)
IN(I)/SU(I)
T O T A L SU
IN
IN/SU
PO PO/IN
T 1.0000
If this average per MU$ is
applied on the total
Do you want to estimate the number of specific disease agents reservoirs among the animals of the above
species, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
ADDITIONAL INPUT DATA:
specific disease - DI$
estimated percentage of animals reservoirs (vectors) - P
RESULT:
If the estimated percentage is applied on the total territory, then it can be estimated about (NT*(PO/IN)*P/100) SP$ - reservoirs of DI$ agents living there.¨
1.12-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON CAPTURE/RECAPTURE
(Ref.: Cannon,Roe)
in the absence of migration (This capture-recapture sampling scheme is
applicable on feral animals or where mustering is difficult. )
INPUT DATA:
species - SP$
territory, time - PL$,TI$
total number of
captured-marked and released animals
- D
total number of animals
captured a f t e r a t
i m e suitable to allow for mixing of
the population, but which would preclude
many deaths/births - N
number of recaptured animals
of the original capture - X
RESULT:
Very rough estimation of the
population size = about D*(N/X) animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 1) multiform territory knowing the surface
size
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$
surface measure unit - SMU$
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit - AD
total territory size in
surface measure units - TS
RESULT:
Rough estimation of the
population size = AD*TS animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 2) circular
territory knowing the radius
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$
surface measure unit - SMU$
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit - AD
length measure units - LU$
radius in length measure
units - RA
RESULT:
PI=3.1415926535
Territory size = PI*RA^2
SMU$
Rough estimation of the
population size = AD*PI*RA^2
animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 3) square territory knowing the side length
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$
surface measure unit - SMU$
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit - AD
length measure units - LU$
length of square side in
length measure units - LS
RESULT:
Territory size = LS^2 SMU$
Rough estimation of the
population size = AD*LS^2 animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 4) oblong territory knowing the length and
width
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$
surface measure unit - SMU$
average density of animals
per one surface measure unit - AD
length measure units - LU$ oblong length in measure units - OL
oblong width in measure
units - OW
RESULT:
Territory size = OL*OW
SMU$
Rough estimation of the
population size = AD*OL*OW
animals
1.13-ESTIMATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION SIZE BASED ON AVERAGE DENSITY
This subprogramme calculates
animal population size for: 5) volume space knowing the length, width and depth (height)
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$
volume measure unit - VMU$
average density of animals
per one volume measure unit - AD
length measure units - LU$
oblong length, oblong width
in measure units - OL,OW
depth (height) in measure
units - DE
RESULT:
Volume size = OL*OW*DE
VMU$
Rough estimation of the
population size = AD*OL*OW*DE
animals
2-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE
ANALYSIS - BASIC INDICATORS SYSTEM
1-General indicators for animal
population health analysis
2-Indicators of presence/absence of
animal health phenomena
3-Selected indicators of animal
population health (disease free)
4-Selected indicators of animal
population morbidity
5-Selected indicators of animal
population viability (survival)
6-Selected indicators of animal
population mortality
7-Selected indicators of animal disease
nidality (focality)
8-Selected indicators of animal disease
territorial distribution
9-Human/animal populations and zoonoses
Recommendation: Small resulting
values of the indicators to be multiplied
by 100 (per 100 basic units), by
1000 (per 1000 basic units), etc.
2.1-GENERAL INDICATORS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH ANALYSIS
INPUT DATA:
basic units (animals total, at risk, herds, flocks, farms, territory
surface units, product units, etc.) - UB$
epi. units (basic units with
particular health related. characteristic, e.g. disease free, affected, etc.) -
UE$
total number of basic units existing at the given moment - A
number of epi. units existing at the given moment - E
number of basic units existing at the beginning of the period - D
number of basic units existing in the period - B
average number of basic units in the period - C
number of epi. units at the beginning of the period - DB
number of epi. units existing in the period - F
average number of epi. units in the period - G
number of new epi. units in the period
- H
number of extinct epi. units in the period - I
RESULT:
Point prevalence rate of epi.
units =
E/A = E/A*100 %
Initial point prevalence rate
of epi. units =
DB/D
Period (interval) prevalence
rate of epi. units = F/B
Average prevalence rate of
epi. units = G/C
Incidence rate of epi. units
to existing total = H/B
Incidence rate of epi. units
to average total =
H/C
Incidence rate of epi. units
to initial total = H/D
Extinction rate of epi. units
to existing total = I/B
Extinction rate of epi. units
to average total =
I/C
Extinction rate of epi. units
to initial total = I/D
2.2-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
PRESENCE/ABSENCE DURATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENON
1) animal health phenomenon
(disease, measure, environment factor,
etc.) presence/absence relations
INPUT DATA:
animal health phenomenon -
FE$
place, period - PL$,PE$
total duration of presence of
animal health phenomenon - A
total duration of absence of
animal health phenomenon - B
number of periods of presence
of animal health phenomenon - C
number of periods of absence
of animal health phenomenon - D
RESULTS:
E=A+B
Average duration of presence
of the phenomenon = A/C
Average duration of absence of
the phenomenon = B/D
Time proportion of presence of
the phenomenon = A/E
Time proportion of absence of
the phenomenon = B/E
Ratio of periods with/without
the phenomenon = A/B
Ratio of periods without/with
the phenomenon = B/A
2.2-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
PRESENCE/ABSENCE DURATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENON (according
to Dr V. Astudillo)
2) disease persistence
(endemism)
INPUT DATA:
Disease - DI$ Place - PL$ Period -
PE$
There is a need for data on chronological series of disease presence and
absence durations during several years measured in months.
number of different durations of disease presence periods - N1
number of different durations of disease absence periods - N2
FOR I=1 TO N1 event. FOR I=1 TO N2
duration of presence (in months), frequency - PR(I),F1(I)
duration of absence (in months), frequency - AB(I),F2(I)
RESULTS:
S1 = sum of (PR(I)*F1(I));
S2 = sum of (AB(I)*F2(I))
T1 = sum of F1(I); T2 = sum of F2(I)
Total
number of months = S1+S2
Y=S1/T1; OM1=1/Y
Disease
presence omega = OM1
X=S2/T2; OM2=1/X
Disease
absence omega = OM2
Sum of
presence and absence omegas =
E=OM2/OM
Disease
persistence index (endemism index) =
E = E*100 %
2.3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH (DISEASE FREE)
related to d i s e a s e f r e e (normal, unaffected, pathogen free, non
diseased) animals; salubrity, healthiness, wholesomeness, etc.
INPUT DATA:
type/form of animal
population health (general - crude or
particular - cause/attribute specific - SA$
place, period - PL$,PE$
total number of animals
existing at the given moment - A
number of healthy animals
existing at the given moment - E
total number of animals at
the beginning of the period - D
total number of animals
existing in the period - B
average number of animals in
the period - C
number of healthy animals at
the beginning of the period - J
number of healthy animals
existing in the period - F
average number of healthy
animals in the period - G
number of new healthy animals
in the period - H
number of extinct healthy
animals (slaughtered, removed, diseased)
in the period - I
RESULTS:
Point prevalence rate of
healthy animals =
E/A = E/A*100 %
Initial point prevalence rate
of healthy animals = J/D
Period prevalence rate of
healthy animals = F/B
Average prevalence rate of
healthy animals = G/C
Incidence rate of healthy
animals to existing total = H/B
Incidence rate of healthy
animals to average total = H/C
Incidence rate of healthy
animals to initial total =
H/D
Extinction rate of healthy
animals to existing total = I/B
Extinction rate of healthy
animals to average total = I/C
Extinction rate of healthy
animals to initial total = I/D
Relations of the numbers of healthy animals to those with other epi. characteristics:
INPUT DATA
number of healthy animals at
the given time - HT
number of diseased animals at
the given time - DT
number of intrafocal animals
at the given time - FT
number of animals at risk at
the given time - TT
number of resistant animals
at the given time - RT
number of susceptible animals
at the given time - ST
number of investigated
animals at the given time - IT
RESULTS:
Ratio healthy animals per
diseased one = HT/DT
Ratio diseased animals per
healthy one = DT/HT
Ratio healthy animals per
intrafocal one =
HT/FT
Ratio intrafocal animals per
healthy one =
FT/HT
Ratio healthy animals per one
at risk =
HT/TT
Ratio animals at risk per
healthy one =
TT/HT
Ratio healthy animals per
resistant one =
HT/RT
Ratio resistant animals per
healthy one =
RT/HT
Ratio healthy animals per susceptible
one =
HT/ST
Ratio susceptible animals per
healthy one =
ST/HT
Ratio healthy animals per
investigated one = HT/IT
Ratio investigated animals
per healthy one = IT/HT
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates
indicators related to diseased (unhealthy,
affected, infected, invaded, abnormal) animals, clinical cases, etc. :
1) total population point
prevalence rate at a given moment
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
total number of animals
existing at the given moment - A
number of diseased animals
existing at the given moment - J
number of diseased animals
with clinical symptoms existing at the
given moment - Z
RESULTS:
Point prevalence rate of
diseased animals =
J/A
Point prevalence rate of
clinically diseased animals =
Z/A
Point prevalence rate of
subclinically diseased animal = (J-Z)/A
Proportion of clinically
diseased animals =
Z/J
Proportion of subclinically
diseased animals =
(J-Z)/J
Ratio of animals diseased
clinically per subclinically one = Z/(J-Z)
Ratio of animals diseased
subclinically per clinically one = (J-Z)/Z
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates
indicators related to diseased (unhealthy,
affected, infected, invaded, abnormal) animals, clinical cases, etc. :
2) total population
morbidity related to a given period
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period - D
total number of animals existing
in the period - B
average number of animals
existing in the period - C
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the period - E
number of diseased animals existing
in the period - F
average number of diseased
animals in the period - G
number of new diseased
animals in the period - H
number of extinct diseased
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period - I
RESULTS:
Initial point prevalence rate
of diseased animals = E/D
Period prevalence rate of
diseased animals = F/B
Average prevalence rate of
diseased animals = G/C
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to existing total = H/B
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to average total = H/C
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to initial total = H/D
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to existing total = I/B
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to average total = I/C
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to initial total = I/D
Information on the relations of the numbers of diseased animals to those
with other epi. characteristics:
INPUT DATA:
number of diseased animals at
the given time - DT
number of healthy animals at
the given time - HT
number of intrafocal animals
at the given time - FT
number of animals at risk at
the given time - TT
number of resistant animals
at the given time - RT
number of susceptible animals
at the given time - ST
number of investigated
animals at the given time - IT
RESULTS:
Ratio of diseased/healthy
animals =
DT/HT
Ratio of healthy/diseased
animals =
HT/DT
Ratio of diseased/intrafocal
animals =
DT/FT
Ratio of in
intrafocal/diseased animals = FT/DT
Ratio of diseased/at risk
animals =
DT/TT
Ratio of at risk/diseased
animals =
TT/DT
Ratio of diseased/resistant
animals =
DT/RT
Ratio of resistant/diseased
animals =
RT/DT
Ratio of diseased/susceptible
animals = DT/ST
Ratio of susceptible/diseased
animals =
ST/DT
Ratio of
diseased/investigated animals =
DT/IT
Ratio of
investigated/diseased animals = IT/DT
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
This subprogramme calculates
indicators related to diseased (unhealthy,
affected, infected, invaded, abnormal) animals, clinical cases, etc. :
1) total population point prevalence rate at a given moment
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
total number of animals at
specific risk at the beginning of intrafocal exposure - T
total number of animals that
develop disease during total period of
specific epizootic - S
number of animals that
develop disease during initial stage - IS
RESULTS:
Specific disease attack rate
(case rate) = S/T
= (S/T)*100 %
Specific disease initial
stage attack rate = IS/T = (IS/T)*100 %
Specific disease post-initial
stage attack rate (secondary attack
rate) = (S-IS)/T
= (S-IS/T)*100 %
Proportion of initial stage
attack rate =
IS/S
Proportion of post-initial
stage attack rate = (S-IS)/S
Ratio initial/post-initial
stage attack rates = (S-IS)/IS
Ratio post-initial/initial
stage attack rates =
IS/(S-IS)
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
2) total population morbidity related to a given period
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period - D
total number of animals
existing in the period - B
average number of animals
existing in the period - C
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the period - E
number of diseased animals
existing in the period - F
average number of diseased
animals in the period - G
number of new diseased
animals in the period - H
number of extinct diseased
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period - I
RESULTS:
Initial point prevalence rate
of diseased animals = E/D
Period prevalence rate of
diseased animals = F/B
Average prevalence rate of
diseased animals = G/C
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to existing total = H/B
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to average total = H/C
Incidence rate of diseased
animals to initial total = H/D
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to existing total = I/B
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to average total = I/C
Extinction rate of diseased
animals to initial total = I/D
Information on the relations of the numbers of diseased animals to those
with other epi. characteristics:
INPUT DATA:
number of diseased animals at
the given time - DT
number of healthy animals at
the given time - HT
number of intrafocal animals
at the given time - FT
number of animals at risk at
the given time - TT
number of resistant animals
at the given time - RT
number of susceptible animals
at the given time - ST
number of investigated
animals at the given time - IT
RESULTS:
Ratio of diseased/healthy
animals =
DT/HT
Ratio of healthy/diseased
animals =
HT/DT
Ratio of diseased/intrafocal
animals =
DT/FT
Ratio of in
intrafocal/diseased animals = FT/DT
Ratio of diseased/at risk
animals =
DT/TT
Ratio of at risk/diseased
animals =
TT/DT
Ratio of diseased/resistant
animals =
DT/RT
Ratio of resistant/diseased
animals =
RT/DT
Ratio of diseased/susceptible
animals = DT/ST
Ratio of susceptible/diseased
animals = ST/DT
Ratio of
diseased/investigated animals = DT/IT
Ratio of
investigated/diseased animals = IT/DT
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
3)
specific transmissible disease attack rates (intrafocal incidence)
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
total number of animals at
specific risk at the beginning of
intrafocal exposure - T
total number of animals that
develop disease during total period of specific epizootic - S
number of animals that develop disease during
initial stage - IS
RESULTS:
Specific disease attack rate
(case rate) = S/T
= (S/T)*100 %
Specific disease initial
stage attack rate = IS/T = (IS/T)*100 %
Specific disease post-initial
stage attack rate (secondary attack
rate) = (S-IS)/T
= (S-IS/T)*100 %
Proportion of initial stage
attack rate =
IS/S
Proportion of post-initial
stage attack rate = (S-IS)/S
Ratio initial/post-initial
stage attack rates = (S-IS)/IS
Ratio post-initial/initial
stage attack rates = IS/(S-IS)
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
4) proportional specific disease morbidity rate
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of all diseased
animals at a given time - Y
number of animals diseased
due specific cause(s) at a given time
- W
RESULT:
Proportional specific disease
morbidity rate = W/Y =
(W/Y)*100 %
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
5) morbidity indicators related to
animals at risk (exposed)
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
total number of animals at
risk existing at the given moment - A
number of diseased animals at
risk existing at the given moment - J
total number of animals at
risk existing at the beginning of the period
- D
total number of animals at
risk existing in the period - B
average number of animals at
risk existing in the period - C
number of diseased animals at
risk at the beginning of the period- E
number of diseased animals at
risk existing in the period - F
average number of diseased
animals at risk in the period - G
number of new diseased animals
at risk in the period - H
number of extinct
(dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) diseased animals at risk in the
period - I
RESULTS:
Initial point prevalence rate
of diseased animals at risk = E/D
Period prevalence rate of
diseased animals at risk =
F/B
Average prevalence rate of
diseased animals at risk =
G/C
Incidence rate of diseased
animals at risk to existing total = H/B
Incidence rate of diseased
animals at risk to average total = H/C
Incidence rate of diseased
animals at risk to initial total =
H/D
Extinction rate of diseased
animals at risk to existing total =
I/B
Extinction rate of diseased animals at risk
to average total = I/C
Extinction rate of diseased
animals at risk to initial total =
I/D
2.4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORBIDITY
6) animal-time incidence rate
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
Note: Animal-time = sum of individual units of time that the animals in
the study population have been exposed to the conditions of interest
- in our case to specific disease etiological agents. Incidence density rate
describes the average speed at which the event of interest occurs
per unit of animal-time at risk.
animal-time unit (day, week,
month, year, etc.) - T$
number of new events
(diseased animals) in the period
- NDA
number of animal-time units
at risk in the period - T
If absolute number of animal-time units at risk is unknown:
average number of animals at
risk during the period - ANA
period duration in time
units - PTU
RESULT:
T=ANA*PTU
Animal-time incidence
rate (interval incidence density) = NDA/T per T$ at risk
2.5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION VIABILITY (SURVIVAL)
INPUT DATA:
number of animals existing at
the beginning of the period - G
number of animals surviving
at the end of the period - F
number of animals existing in
the period - D
number of animals born (live
births) in the period - A
number of naturally dead
animals in the period - B
number of animals slaughtered
in the period - C
number of females in
reproductive age existing in the
period - E
number of weaned new born
animals in the period -
H
number of animals at the
beginning of breeding period - I
number of animals surviving
to the end of breeding period - J
number of animals at the
beginning of fattening period - K
number of animals surviving
to the end of fattening period - L
RESULTS:
Animal population
viability index =
A/(B+C)
Animal population fertility
rate =
A/E
Animal population natality
rate (crude live birth rate) = A/D
= (H/A)*100 %
Animal survival-to-weaning
rate (weaned new born animals rate)
= H/A =
(H/A)*100 %
Animal population survival
rate = F/G
= (F/G)*100 %
Breeding animals survival
rate =
J/I =
(J/I)*100 %
Fattening animals survival
rate = L/K
= (L/K)*100 %
2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY
General-crude mortality /
crude death rate (g) :
INPUT DATA:
Place, time, species - PL$,TI$,SP$
total number of animals
existing
at the beginning of the period -
B
total number of animals
existing in the period
- C
average total number of
animal in the period
- D
total number of naturally
dead animals in the period - E
total number of dead animals
(slaughtered
and
naturally dead) in the period
- A
total number of slaughtered
animals in the period - H
total number of diseased
animals in the period - F
total number of diseased
animals naturally dead - G
RESULTS:
E=(A-H) H=(A-E) A=(H+E)
Animal population total
mortality rate to initial total =
A/B
Animal population total
mortality rate to existing total = A/C
Animal population total
mortality rate to average total = A/D
Animal population natural
mortality rate to initial total =
E/B
Animal population natural
mortality rate to existing total = E/C
Animal population natural
mortality rate to average total = E/D
Slaughtered animals rate to
initial total =
H/B
Slaughtered animals rate to
existing total =
H/C
Slaughtered animals rate to
average total =
H/D
Animal population crude case
fatality rate = G/F
Note: 'total mortality' is based
on a sum of dead and slaughtered animals;
'natural mortality' is based on naturally dead animals only.
2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY
Cause/category specific death
rate - specific disease mortality (s):
INPUT DATA:
Place, time, species - PL$,TI$,SP$
total number of animals
existing at the beginning of the
period - B
total number of animals
existing in the period
- C
average total number of
animal in the period
- D
total number of naturally
dead animals in the period - E
number of specifically
diseased animals existing in the
period - L
number of naturally dead
specifically diseased animals in the period
- P
number of slaughtered
specifically diseased animals in the
period - Q
RESULTS:
Specific disease total
mortality rate to initial total =
(P+Q)/B
Specific disease total
mortality rate to existing total =
(P+Q)/C
Specific disease total
mortality rate to average total =
(P+Q)/D
Specific disease natural
mortality rate to initial total = P/B
Specific disease natural
mortality rate to existing total =
P/C
Specific disease natural
mortality rate to average total = P/D
Specifically diseased
slaughtered animals rate to initial total
= Q/B
Specifically diseased
slaughtered animals rate to existing total =
Q/C
Specifically diseased
slaughtered animals rate to average total
= Q/D
Specific disease case fatality
rate (lethality) = P/L
Specific disease proportional
case fatality rate =
P/E
2.6-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION MORTALITY
Neonatal mortality rate (n) :
INPUT DATA:
Place, time, species - PL$,TI$,SP$
number of live animal births
in the period - LAB
number of deaths of new born
animals in the period - DNB
RESULTS:
Animal population neonatal
mortality rate = DNB/LAB
= DNB/LAB*100 %
2.7-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE NIDALITY (FOCALITY)
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
focal measure units (herds,
flocks, farms, ranches, etc.) - FU$
total number of territorial
surface measure units - I
Do you want information on indicators related to a given moment (m)
or
indicators related to a given period (p) ? m
number of focal measure units
existing at the given moment - C
number of foci existing at
the given moment -
D
number of animals existing in
foci at the given moment - AN
number of herds at the given
moment - K
number of diseased herds at
the given moment - L
number of animals existing in
diseased herds - HF
RESULTS:
Point prevalence rate of
foci =
D/C = D/C*100 %
Average number of intrafocal
animals at the given moment =
AN/D
Point prevalence rate of
diseased herds = L/K
= L/K*100 %
Average number of animals in
diseased herds = HF/L
Average density of foci per
TU$ =
D/I
Average density of diseased
herds per TU$ = L/I
2.7-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE NIDALITY (FOCALITY)
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
focal measure units (herds,
flocks, farms, ranches, etc.) - FU$
total number of territorial
surface measure units - I
Do you want information on indicators related to a given moment (m)
or
indicators related to a given period
(p) ? p
number of focal measure units
existing at the beginning of the period
- B
number of foci existing at
the beginning of the period - BB
number of focal measure units existing in
the period - E
number of foci existing in
the period - F
average number of focal
measure units in the period - AM
average number of foci in the
period - AF
number of new foci in the
period - G
number of extinct foci in the
period - H
number of animals existing in
foci in the period - AP
RESULTS:
Initial point prevalence rate
of foci = BB/B
Period prevalence rate of
foci =
F/E
Average prevalence rate of
foci = AF/AM
Incidence rate of foci = G/E
Extinction rate of foci =
H/E
Average density of foci per
TU$ = F/I
Average number of intrafocal
animals in the given period = AP/F
2.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION
(villages, districts, regions, provinces, counties, countries, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
surface measure units -
SU$
total number of surface
measure units of the territory - B
affected zones size existing
at the given moment - D
number of animals existing in
affected zones at a given moment - AN
number of surface units of
affected zones at the beginning of the
period -
S
number of surface units of
affected zones existing in the period
- T
average number of measure
units of affected zones in the period
- V
number of surface units of new affected zones in the period -
Y
number of surface units of
extinct affected zones (become free) in the period -
W
RESULTS:
Point prevalence rate of
affected zones =
D/B = D/B*100 %
Average number of animals in
affected zones per surface unit =
AN/D
Initial point prevalence rate
of affected zones = S/B
Period prevalence rate of
affected zones =
T/B
Average prevalence rate of
affected zones = V/B
Incidence rate of affected
zones = Y/B
Extinction rate of affected
zones (recovery rate) = W/B
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme provides
information on: 1) human population density and distribution
INPUT DATA
place, time - PL$,TI$
space measure units - SU$
number of data - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: subterritory - TE$(I) size
- TS(I) persons - AN(I)
SU1 = sum of TS(I) SU2 = sum of AN(I)
H U M A N P O P U L A T I O N - TERRITORIAL
DENSITY AND DISTRIBUTION
Subterritory SU$
Number of Average Proportion Percentage
Inhabitants Number
of Total of Total
TE$(I) TS(I)
AN(I) AN(I)/TS(I) AN(I)/SU2
(AN(I)/SU2)*100
T o t a l SU1
SU2 SU2/SU1
1.000000
100.0000
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme provides
information on: 2) human population categories structure
INPUT DATA
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of data - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: category - TE$(I) persons - AN(I)
SU2 = sum of AN(I)
H U M A N P O P U L A T I O N C A T E G O R Y STRUCTURE
Category Number of Proportion
Percentage
Inhabitants
of Total of Total
TE$(I) AN(I) AN(I)/SU2 (AN(I)/SU2)*100
T o t a l SU2 1.000000
100.0000
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme provides
information on: 3) ratios of
animal/human populations
INPUT DATA
place, time - PL$,TI$
animal species - SP$ number of animals - AN number of persons - PE
RESULTS:
Ratio of animals per one
person = AN/PE
: 1
Ratio of persons per one
animal = PE/AN
: 1
2.9-HUMAN/ANIMAL POPULATIONS
AND ZOONOSES
This subprogramme provides
information on: 4) ratios of animals/humans diseased by zoonoses
INPUT DATA
place, time - PL$,TI$
zoonotic disease(s) - DI$
animal species - SP$
number of animals - AN
number of healthy
animals - HA
number of diseased
animals - DA
number of persons - PE
number of healthy persons - HP
number of diseased
persons - DP
RESULTS:
Ratio of diseased animals per
one person = DA/PE
: 1
Ratio of diseased animals per
one diseased person = DA/DP
: 1
Ratio of diseased persons per
one animal = DP/AN
: 1
Ratio of diseased persons per
one diseased animal = DP/DA
: 1
3-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH STRUCTURES
1-Animal population epizootiological
structure
2-Animal population disease territorial
structure
3-Animal population diseases foci
(outbreaks) types' structure
4-Territory epizootiological structure
5-Morbidity, mortality and nidality
structure by causes/forms
6-Disease occurrence according to
animal species and categories
7-Disease occurrence according to
breeding/production conditions
8-Disease occurrence according to
ecological conditions
9-Tables of animal disease occurrence
acc. to dif. criteria
10-Tables of animal population, farms
and territory epiz. structure
11-Tables of disease foci and
intrafocal structure
12-Proportions of disease different
forms/symptoms/findings
13-Proportions of specific etiological
agents/antibodies findings
3.1-ANIMAL POPULATION
EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
place, time - LU$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
total number of animals of a
given population - A
number of epizootiologically h e a l t h y
animals - B
number of exposed epiz.
healthy animals - F
number of directly exposed
epiz. healthy animals - H
number of animals
epizootiologically i n d e t e r m i n a
t e with clinical symptoms - J
number of
epizootiologically a f f e c t e d ( d i s e a s e d ) animals - D
number of animals
epizootiologically affected (diseased)
with clinical symptoms – L
ANIMAL POPULATION E P I Z O O T I O L O G I C A L S T R U C T U R E
Number Proportion
Epizootiologically healthy
animals B B/A
Non-exposed epi. healthy
animals (B-F) (B-F)/A
Exposed epi. healthy
animals F F/A
Indirectly exposed healthy
animals (F-H)
(F-H)/A
Directly exposed healthy
animals H
H/A
Epizootiologically indeterminate
animals (A-B-D)
(A-B-D)/A
Epiz.indeterminate anim.
without symptoms (A-B-D-J) (A-B-D-J)/A
Epiz. indeterminate animals
with symptoms J
J/A
Epizootiologically affected
(diseased) animals D
D/A
Epiz.affected animals without
symptoms (D-L) (D-L)/A
Epiz.affected animals with
symptoms L L/A
T o t a l A 1.0000
3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE
This subprogramme
calculates: 1) diseased animals' territorial density and distribution
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), time - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
disease(s) - DI$
space measure units - SU$
number of data on space and
animals - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: subterritory, size, diseased animals -
TE$(I),TS(I),AN(I)
SU1 = sum of TS(I)
SU2 = sum of AN(I)
D I S E A S E D ANIMALS'
TERRITORIAL DENSITY AND
DISTRIBUTION
Subterritory SU$ Diseased Average Proportion Percentage
Animals Number
of Total of Total
TE$(I) TS(I) AN(I) AN(I)/TS(I) AN(I)/SU2
(AN(I)/SU2)*100
T o t a l SU1
SU2 SU2/SU1
1.000000 100.0000
3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE
This subprogramme calculates: 2)
farms - diseased animals' average number
and territorial distribution
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), time -
PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
disease(s) - DI$
number of data on space and
animals - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: subterritory, number of farms, diseased
animals - TE$(I),TS(I),AN(I)
SU1 = sum of TS(I)
SU2 = sum of AN(I)
F A R M S: DISEASED
ANIMALS' AVERAGE AND TERRITORIAL
DISTRIBUTION
Subterritory Farms Diseased Average Proportion Percentage
Animals Number
of Total of Total
TE$(I) TS(I)
AN(I)
AN(I)/TS(I) TS(I)/SU1 (TS(I)/SU1)*100
T o t a l SU1
SU2 SU2/SU1 1.000000 100.0000
3.2-ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) diseased animals' simple territorial distribution
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), time -
PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
disease(s) - DI$
number of data on space and
animals - N
FOR I=1 TO N
I: subterritory, diseased animals -
TE$(I),AN(I)
SU2 = sum of AN(I)
D I S E A S E D ANIMALS'
TERRITORIAL D I S T R I B U T I
O N
Subterritory
Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals of
Total of Total
TE$(I) AN(I) AN(I)/SU2 (AN(I)/SU2)*100
T o t a l SU2 1.000000 100.0000
3.3-ANIMAL DISEASE FOCI
(OUTBREAKS) TYPES' STRUCTURE
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$ species - SP$
focal measure units (animal
housings, herds/flocks areas, farms,
ranches, villages, etc.) - FU$
type(s)/form(s) of foci
(outbreaks) - TF$
place - LU$ time-moment - TI$
total number of foci existing
at the given moment - TF
number of foci with affected
(clinically + subclinically) animals
at the given moment - FA
number of foci with
subclinically only affected animals at
the given moment - CA
number of foci without susceptible
animals (depopulated) at the given
moment - FW
FAA=(FA+FW)
F O C I (O U T B R E A K S) T Y P E S'
S T R U C T U R E
Characteristics Number Proportion
Percentage
With affected animals FA FA/TF FA/TF*100
clinically (FA-CA)
(FA-CA)/TF (FA-CA)/TF*100
subclinically only CA CA/TF CA/TF*100
With non-affected animals (in observation)
TF-(FA+FW) (TF-(FA+FW))/TF (TF-(FA+FW))/TF*100
Without susceptible animals
(depopulated) FW
FW/TF
FW/TF*100
T o t a l TF 1.0000 100.0000
3.4-TERRITORY EPIZOOTIOLOGICAL
STRUCTURE
(villages, districts, regions,
provinces, counties, countries, zones, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
territory - LU$ time-moment - TI$
disease(s) - FE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
surface measure units -SU$
total number of surface
measure units of the territory - B
total number of specifically
diseased animals in the territory - A
number of surface measure
units of specific disease(s) free zones
- L
number of surface measure
units of exposed specific disease(s) free zones (at risk) - M
number of surface measure
units of zones affected by specific
disease(s) – O
T E R R I T O R Y E P I Z O O T I O L O G I C A L S T R U C T U R E
Average density of specifically
diseased animals per one SU$ = A/B
Q=(B-L-O)/B
SU$ Proportion %
Disease(s) free zones L
L/B L/B*100
Non-exposed free zones (out
of risk) L-M (L-M)/B ((L-M)/B)*100
Exposed free zones (at
risk) M
M/B M/B*100
Indeterminate zone (B-L-O) (B-L-O)/B Q*100
Affected zones O O/B
O/B*100
T o t a l B 1.0000 100.00
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Structure of: morbidity (d)
INPUT DATA:
type/form of morbidity - TM$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of evaluated
causes/forms - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: cause/form, number of cases - S$(I),U(I)
SU = sum of U(I)
M O R B I D I T Y S T R U C T U R E ACCORDING
TO CAUSES / FORMS
Cause/form Number of Proportion
Percentage
Cases/units
S$(I) U(I) U(I)/SU
(U(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.0000
100.0000
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Structure of: mortality (m)
INPUT DATA:
type/form of mortality - TY$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of evaluated
causes/forms - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: cause/form, number of cases - S$(I),U(I)
SU = sum of U(I)
M O R T A L I T Y S T R U C T U R E ACCORDING
TO CAUSES / FORMS
Cause/form Number of Proportion
Percentage
Cases/units
S$(I) U(I) U(I)/SU (U(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.0000 100.0000
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Structure of: nidality/focality
(f)
INPUT DATA:
type/form of nidality - TF$
species, category(ies) - SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of evaluated
causes/forms - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: cause/form, number of cases - S$(I),U(I)
SU = sum of U(I)
D I S E A S E N I D A L I T Y STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO CAUSES / FORMS
Cause/form Number of Proportion
Percentage
Cases/units
S$(I) U(I)
U(I)/SU (U(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU 1.0000
100.0000
3.5-MORBIDITY, MORTALITY,
NIDALITY AND TERRITORY STRUCTURE
ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CAUSES/FORMS
Structure of: affected territory (t)
INPUT DATA:
type/form of affected territory
- TT$
place, time - PL$,TI$
space measure units - TMU$
number of evaluated
causes/forms - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: cause/form, number of space units -
S$(I),U(I)
SU = sum of U(I)
A F F E C T E D T E R R I T O R Y STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO CAUSES / FORMS
Cause/form Number of Proportion Percentage
TMU$
S$(I) U(I) U(I)/SU (U(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.0000
100.0000
3.6-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO ANIMAL SPECIES AND CATEGORIES
This subprogramme calculates
disease occurrence according to 1) species
(host range)
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of species - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: name of the species, number of diseased
animals - SG$(I),NA(I)
SU = sum of NA(I)
S P E C I E S S T R U C T U R E OF D I
S E A S E D A N I M A L S
Species Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
SG$(I) NA(I) NA(I)/SU (NA(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.000000 100.0000
3.6-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO ANIMAL SPECIES AND CATEGORIES
This subprogramme calculates
disease occurrence according to 2) categories
Animal categories: according to age, sex, weight, breed,
physiological stage, nutrition status,
immunity status, type/level of productivity, type of breeding, type
of exploitation, production
stage, technology, concentration, etc.
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
place, time - PL$,TI$
species, category according
to - SP$,CA$
number of category subgroups
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: name of the subgroup, number of diseased
animals - SG$(I),NA(I)
SU = sum of NA(I)
C A T E G O R Y S T R U C T U R E OF D I
S E A S E D A N I M A L S
Category Diseased Proportion Percentage
Subgroup Animals
SG$(I) NA(I) NA(I)/SU (NA(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU 1.000000 100.0000
3.7-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
ACCORDING TO BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS
(according to: animal breeding/production exploitation, technology, concentration,
housing/herd/flock/farm size, management, sector, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species - SP$
place, time - PL$,TI$
type of conditions
criterion for subgrouping -
CA$
number of evaluated subgroups
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
name of the subgroup, number of
diseased animals: I: SG$(I),NA(I)
SU = sum of NA(I)
ANIMAL DISEASE
OCCURENCE ACCORDING TO BREEDING/PRODUCTION CONDITIONS
Subgroup Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
SG$(I) NA(I) NA(I)/SU (NA(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU 1.000000 100.0000
3.8-DISEASE OCCURRENCE
ACCORDING TO ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
[atmospherical, geospherical, hydrospherical and biospherical (flora/fauna)
factors; hygiene, etc.]
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species - SP$
place, time - PL$,TI$
type of ecological conditions
- EC$
criterion for subgrouping -
CA$
number of evaluated subgroups - N
FOR I=1 TO N
name of the subgroup, number of
diseased animals: I: SG$(I),NA(I)
SU = sum of NA(I)
D I S E A S
Subgroup Diseased Proportion Percentage
Animals
SG$(I) NA(I) NA(I)/SU (NA(I)/SU)*100
T o t a l SU
1.000000 100.0000
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
SPECIES, CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates space/time tables of: 1) population
disease occurrence according to species
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) -
PL$,TI$
disease - DI$
number of species - N
FOR I=1 TO N
names of the species - SC$(I)
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t)
measure units - MU$
FOR I=1 TO N
Row names, values of individual columns:
I row: CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I)
POPULATION DISEASE
OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
SPECIES
Species T o t a l SC$(1)
SC$(2) SC$(3) SC$(4)
SC$(5)
CO$(I)
C(I)+D(I)+E(I)+F(I)+G(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
G(I)
T o t a l T
C
D
E
F G
Proportion 1.0000 C/T
D/T
E/T F/T G/T
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
T=C+D+E+F+G
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
SPECIES, CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates space/time tables of: 2) population
disease occurrence according to categories
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) -
PL$,TI$
disease - DI$
number of categories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
names of the categories -
SC$(I)
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t)
measure units - MU$
FOR I=1 TO N
Row names, values of individual columns:
I row: CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I)
POPULATION DISEASE
OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
CATEGORIES
Category T o t a l SC$(1)
SC$(2) SC$(3) SC$(4)
SC$(5)
CO$(I) C(I)+D(I)+E(I)+F(I)+G(I) C(I)
D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
G(I)
T o t a l T
C D
E F
G
Proportion 1.0000 C/T
D/T
E/T F/T
G/T
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
T=C+D+E+F+G
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
SPECIES, CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates space/time tables of: 3) population disease occurrence according to ecological conditions
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) - PL$,TI$
disease - DI$
species, category(ies) - SP$,CA$
number of conditions - N
FOR I=1 TO N
names of the conditions -
SC$(I)
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t)
measure units - MU$
FOR I=1 TO N
Row names, values of individual columns:
I row: CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I)
POPULATION DISEASE
OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
Conditions T o t a l SC$(1)
SC$(2) SC$(3) SC$(4)
SC$(5)
CO$(I) C(I)+D(I)+E(I)+F(I)+G(I) C(I)
D(I) E(I)
F(I)
G(I)
T o t a l T
C D E
F
G
Proportion 1.0000 C/T D/T
E/T
F/T
G/T
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
T=C+D+E+F+G
3.9-TABLES OF POPULATION
DISEASE OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
SPECIES, CATEGORIES, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
This subprogramme creates space/time tables of: 4) population
disease occurrence according to economic conditions
INPUT DATA
place, time (period) -
PL$,TI$
disease - DI$
species, category(ies) - SP$,CA$
number of conditions - N
FOR I=1 TO N
names of the conditions -
SC$(I)
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t)
measure units - MU$
FOR I=1 TO N
Row names, values of individual columns:
I row: CO$(I),
C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I)
POPULATION DISEASE
OCCURRENCE ACCORDING TO
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Conditions T o t a l SC$(1)
SC$(2) SC$(3) SC$(4)
SC$(5)
CO$(I) C(I)+D(I)+E(I)+F(I)+G(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
G(I)
T o t a l T
C D
E
F G
Proportion 1.0000 C/T
D/T
E/T
F/T G/T
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
T=C+D+E+F+G
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPIZ.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 1) total, free and diseased animals
INPUT DATA
title - NA$
disease, species,
category(ies) - DI$,SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
number of rows - N
FOR I=1 TO N
data according to subterritories (s) or time
series (t) - DA$
List row names, values of individual columns:
DA$,
total, disease free, diseased animals
I: CO$(I), C(I),
D(I), E(I)
Title: NA$
DA$ T o t a l Dis. Free Proportion Indeter-
Diseased Proportion
minate
CO$(I) C(I) D(I) D(I)/C(I) C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)) E(I)
E(I)/C(I)
T o t a l C D
D/C
C-(E+D)
E E/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPIZ.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 2) total, free and affected herds
INPUT DATA
title - NA$
disease, species,
category(ies) - DI$,SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
number of rows - N
FOR I=1 TO N
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t) - DA$
List row names, values of individual columns:
DA$, total, disease free, affected
herds I: CO$(I), C(I),
D(I), E(I)
Title: NA$
DA$ T o t a l Dis. Free
Proportion Indeter-
Diseased
Proportion
minate
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
D(I)/C(I) C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)) E(I)
E(I)/C(I)
T o t a l C
D D/C
C-(E+D)
E E/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL
POPULATION, FARMS AND TERRITORY EPIZ.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 3) total, free and affected farms
INPUT DATA
title - NA$
disease, species,
category(ies) - DI$,SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
number of rows - N
FOR I=1 TO N
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t) - DA$
List row names, values of individual columns:
DA$, total, disease free, affected
farms I: CO$(I), C(I),
D(I), E(I)
Title: NA$
DA$ T o t a l Dis. Free
Proportion Indeter- Diseased Proportion
minate
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
D(I)/C(I)
C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)) E(I) E(I)/C(I)
T o t a l C D
D/C
C-(E+D) E E/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
3.10-TABLES OF ANIMAL POPULATION,
FARMS AND TERRITORY EPIZ.STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of tables according to space and
time with following structures: 4) total, free and affected territory
INPUT DATA
title - NA$
disease, species,
category(ies) - DI$,SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
number of rows - N
FOR I=1 TO N
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t) - DA$
surface measure units, data
source - MU$,DS$
List row names, values of individual columns:
DA$, total, disease free, affected
territory I: CO$(I), C(I),
D(I), E(I)
Title: NA$
DA$ T o t a l Dis. Free Proportion Indeter- Diseased Proportion
minate
CO$(I) C(I) D(I) D(I)/C(I) C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)) E(I)
E(I)/C(I)
T o t a l C D
D/C
C-(E+D) E E/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
3.11-TABLES OF DISEASE FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL STRUCTURES
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of the tables, according to space
and time, with following structure:
1) foci: total, with diseased animals (clinically, subclinically
only), in observation and depopulated
INPUT DATA
title - NA$
disease, species - DI$,SP$
place, time - PL$,TI$
foci form/type -FT$
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t) - DA$
number of rows - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Row names, values of individual
columns:
DA$, f o c i
total, foci with animals diseased clinically, diseased subclinically only, depopulated foci
-
I: CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),G(I)
F(I)=C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)+G(I))
Title: NA$
DA$ T o t a l With
Animals Diseased In Depopulated
----------------------------------- Observation
Clinically Subclin.
only
CO$(I) C(I) D(I) E(I) F(I) G(I)
T o t a l C D E F
G
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
P r o p o r t i o n s:
T o t a l With
Animals Diseased In Depopulated
----------------------------------- Observation
Clinically Subclin. only
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)/C(I)
E(I)/C(I) F(I)/C(I)
G(I)/C(I)
T o t a l C D/C
E/C
F/C G/C
3.11-TABLES OF DISEASE FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL STRUCTURES
=====================================================
This subprogramme facilitates the creation of the tables, according to space
and time, with following structure: 2) intrafocal animals: total, affected
clinically and subclinically,
indeterminate and disease free
INPUT DATA
title - NA$
disease, species - DI$,SP$
place, time - PL$,TI$
disease form/type - DT$
data according to
subterritories (s) or time series (t) - DA$
number of rows - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Row names, values of individual
columns:
DA$, intrafocal a n i m a l s
total, diseased clinically,
subclinically, disease free
I: CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),G(I)
F(I)=C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)+G(I))
Title: NA$
DA$ T o t a l D
i s e
a s e d Indetermi- Disease free
Clinically Subclin. only nate
CO$(I) C(I)
D(I) E(I)
F(I) G(I)
T o t a l C
D E
F
G
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
P r o p o r t i o n s:
T o t a l D
i s e
a s e d Indetermi- Disease Free
Clinically Subclin. only nate
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)/C(I) E(I)/C(I) F(I)/C(I)
G(I)/C(I)
T o t a l C D/C E/C
F/C
G/C
3.12-PROPORTIONS OF DISEASE
DIFFERENT FORMS/SYMPTOMS/FINDINGS
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
investigations intravitam (i)
or postmortem (p) - INV$
If INV$='i' then IN$ = intravitam investigations
If INV$='p' then IN$ = postmortem investigations
total number of
investigated d i s e a s e d animals - AN
number of forms/symptoms/findings
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data : I:
If INV$='i' then form/symptom,
number of cases - M$(I),X(I)
If INV$='p' then finding name,
number of cases - M$(I),X(I)
T = sum of X(I)
PROPORTIONS OF
DISEASE DIFFERENT FORMS / SYMPTOMS / FINDINGS
Number of F i
n d i
n g s Diseased Animals
IN$ Cases Proportion
Percentage Proportion Percentage
M$(I) X(I) X(I)/T
X(I)/T*100
X(I)/AN X(I)/AN*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
1.0000
100.0000
3.13-PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIC
ETIOLOGICAL AGENTS/ANTIBODIES FINDINGS
INPUT DATA:
etiological group - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
etiological agents findings
(e) or positive serological findings (s) - INV$
If INV$ = 'e' then IN$ = microbiological investigations:
If INV$ = 's' then IN$ = serological investigations:
number of etiological names -
N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
If INV$ = 'e' then etiological
agent, number of findings - M$(I),X(I)
If INV$ = 's' then specific
disease serology, number of findings - M$(I),X(I)
T = sum of X(I)
PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIC ETIOLOGICAL AGENTS/ANTIBODIES FINDINGS
IN$ Number of Total F i n d i n g s'
Findings
Proportion Percentage
M$(I) X(I) X(I)/T X(I)/T*100
T o t a l T
1.0000
100.0000
Note: Applicable also for other markers of infection (.e.g. allergic
reaction).
4-SELECTED INDICATORS OF EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
DYNAMICS
1-Comparative indexes of population health
phenomena dynamics
2-Average of changing numbers of
diseased animals, foci etc.
3-Seasonality of population
health/disease phenomena
4-Selected tendency indicators of
morbidity and nidality
5-Relations between new cases and
space/time/diseased/foci
6-Population 'vertical movement' and
chronic disease process
7-Number of diseased animals according
to survival rates
8-Territorial propagation of
transmissible diseases
9-Development of disease frequency
with cyclic tendency
10-Development of disease with
ascending/descending tendency
11-Chronological time series of
population health phenomenon
4.1-COMPARATIVE INDEXES OF
POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENA DYNAMICS
IMPUT DATA:
health phenomenon - FE$
place, period - LU$,PE$
number of evaluated
subperiods or moments - N
time, phenomenon values -
NA$(I),X(I)
FOR I=2 TO N
COMPARATIVE INDEXES OF
POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENA DYNAMICS
Time Input Data Comparative
I n d
e x
-----------------------------------
Current Chain
1
NA$(1) X(1) 100.0000 100.0000
I NA$(I) X(I) (X(I)/X(1))*100 (X(I)/X(I-1)*100
4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING
NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI AND
OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
average of: 1) changing numbers of
diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) -DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place - LU$
time (initial and final dates
of the period) - PE$
time measure units - UT$
number of diseased animals
existing at the beginning of period - A
number of diseased animals
existing at the end of the period - B
total duration of the given
period in time measure units - C
subperiods' average duration
in time measure units – D
RESULT:
If A>B then W$ = '-' else W$ = '+'
Absolute difference between
initial and final number of diseased animals = (B-A)
Average absolute value of the
change of number of diseased animals
during one subperiod = (B-A)/(C/D)
Average relative value of the change of
initial number of diseased animals
during one subperiod = W$ (((B-A)/(C/D))/(B-A))*100 %
4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING
NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI AND
OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
average of: 2) changing numbers of foci (outbreaks)
INPUT DATA:
foci - FO$ place - LU$
time (initial and final dates
of the period) - PE$
time measure units - UT$
number of foci (outbreaks)
existing at the beginning of the period - A
number of foci (outbreaks)
existing at the end of the period - B
total duration of the given
period in time measure units - C
subperiods' average duration
in time measure units – D
RESULT:
If A>B then W$ = '-' else W$ = '+'
Absolute difference between
initial and final number of foci (outbreaks) = (B-A)
Average absolute value of the
change of number of foci (outbreaks) during one subperiod =
(B-A)/(C/D)
Average relative value of the
change of initial number of foci (outbreaks) during one subperiod = W$
(((B-A)/(C/D))/(B-A))*100 %
4.2-AVERAGE OF CHANGING
NUMBERS OF DISEASED ANIMALS, FOCI AND
OTHER EPI. PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
average of: 3) changing numbers of epi. phenomenon units
INPUT DATA:
epi. phenomenon - EP$
place - LU$
time (initial and final dates
of the period) - PE$
time measure units - UT$
epi. phenomenon measure units
- EPMU$
number of epi. phenomenon
measure units at the beginning of the period - A
number of epi. phenomenon
measure units at the end of the period - B
total duration of the given
period in time measure units - C
subperiods' average duration
in time measure units - D
RESULT:
If A>B then W$ = '-' else W$ = '+'
Absolute difference between
initial and final number of epi. phenomena = (B-A)
Average absolute value of the
change of number of epi. phenomena
during one subperiod =
(B-A)/(C/D)
Average relative value of the
change of initial number of epi.
phenomena during one subperiod = W$ (((B-A)/(C/D))/(B-A))*100 %
4.3-SEASONALITY OF POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE PHENOMENA
This subprogramme calculates
the seasonality of: 1) disease(s)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - LU$,AN$
indicator measure units,
number of years - IMU$,NY
Absolute monthly values:
January E1,E2,E3,E4,E5,E6,E7,E8,E9,E10
February F1,F2,F3,F4,F5,F6,F7,F8,F9,F10
March M1,M2,M3,M4,M5,M6,M7,M8,M9,M10
April A1,A2,A3,A4,A5,A6,A7,A8,A9,A10
May Y1,Y2,Y3,Y4,Y5,Y6,Y7,Y8,Y9,Y10
June J1,J2,J3,J4,J5,J6,J7,J8,J9,J10
July U1,U2,U3,U4,U5,U6,U7,U8,U9,U10
August G1,G2,G3,G4,G5,G6,G7,G8,G9,G10
September S1,S2,S3,S4,S5,S6,S7,S8,S9,S10
October O1,O2,O3,O4,O5,O6,O7,O8,O9,O10
November N1,N2,N3,N4,N5,N6,N7,N8,N9,N10
December D1,D2,D3,D4,D5,D6,D7,D8,D9,D10
E=E1+E2+E3+E4+E5+E6+E7+E8+E9+E10
F=F1+F2+F3+F4+F5+F6+F7+F8+F9+F10
M=M1+M2+M3+M4+M5+M6+M7+M8+M9+M10
A=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7+A8+A9+A10
Y=Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4+Y5+Y6+Y7+Y8+Y9+Y10
J=J1+J2+J3+J4+J5+J6+J7+J8+J9+J10
U=U1+U2+U3+U4+U5+U6+U7+U8+U9+U10
G=G1+G2+G3+G4+G5+G6+G7+G8+G9+G10
S=S1+S2+S3+S4+S5+S6+S7+S8+S9+S10
O=O1+O2+O3+O4+O5+O6+O7+O8+O9+O10
N=N1+N2+N3+N4+N5+N6+N7+N8+N9+N10
D=D1+D2+D3+D4+D5+D6+D7+D8+D9+D10
T=E+F+M+A+Y+J+U+G+S+O+N+D
Z = T/(NY*12)
RESULT:
Total
Number % Monthly Average Season
Index
January E 100*E/T E/NY
((E/NY)/Z)*100 %
February F 100*F/T F/NY ((F/NY)/Z)*100 %
March M
100*M/T M/NY
((M/NY)/Z)*100 %
April A 100*A/T A/NY
((A/NY)/Z)*100 %
May Y 100*Y/T Y/NY ((Y/NY)/Z)*100 %
June J
100*J/T
J/NY ((J/NY)/Z)*100 %
July U
100*U/T
U/NY ((U/NY)/Z)*100 %
August G 100*G/T
G/NY ((G/NY)/Z)*100 %
September S
100*S/T
S/NY ((S/NY)/Z)*100 %
October O
100*O/T
O/NY ((O/NY)/Z)*100 %
November N 100*N/T
N/NY ((N/NY)/Z)*100 %
December D 100*D/T
D/NY ((D/NY)/Z)*100 %
T o t a l T 100.0000 Z
4.4-SELECTED TENDENCY
INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND NIDALITY
This subprogramme calculates
tendency indicators of: 1) animal
disease morbidity
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the period - DB
number of diseased animals existing
in the period - DP
average number of diseased
animals existing in the period -
DA
number of new diseased
animals in the period - A
number of extinct diseased
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) in the period - B
RESULT:
Difference between new and
extinct diseased animals = A-B
New/extinct diseased animals'
ratio = A/B
Extinct/new diseased animals'
ratio = B/A
Index of morbidity stability
tendency to initial number = 1-(A/DB)
Index of morbidity stability
tendency to existing number = 1-(A/DP)
Index of morbidity stability
tendency to average number = 1-(A/DA)
Index of morbidity reduction
tendency to initial number = (B-A)/DB
Index of morbidity reduction
tendency to existing number = (B-A)/DP
Index of morbidity reduction
tendency to average number = (B-A)/DA
Index of morbidity increasing
tendency to initial number = (A-B)/DB
Index of morbidity increasing
tendency to existing number = (A-B)/DP
Index of morbidity increasing
tendency to average number = (A-B)/DA
4.4-SELECTED TENDENCY
INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND NIDALITY
This subprogramme calculates
tendency indicators of: 2) animal
disease nidality
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
number of foci (outbreaks) at
the beginning of the period - DB
number of foci (outbreaks)
existing in the period - DP
average number of foci
(outbreaks) existing in the period
- DA
number of new foci
(outbreaks) in the period - A
number of extinct foci
(outbreaks) in the period - B
RESULT:
Difference between new and
extinct outbreaks = A-B
New/extinct outbreaks'
ratio = A/B
Extinct/new outbreaks'
ratio = B/A
Index of nidality stability
tendency to initial number = 1-(A/DB)
Index of nidality stability
tendency to existing number = 1-(A/DP)
Index of nidality stability
tendency to average number = 1-(A/DA)
Index of nidality reduction
tendency to initial number = (B-A)/DB
Index of nidality reduction
tendency to existing number = (B-A)/DP
Index of nidality reduction
tendency to average number = (B-A)/DA
Index of nidality increasing
tendency to initial number = (A-B)/DB
Index of nidality increasing
tendency to existing number = (A-B)/DP
Index of nidality increasing
tendency to average number = (A-B)/DA
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of disease spreading:
1) ratio of disease new
cases/space units
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,TI$
definition of new cases - NC$
number of disease new cases -
DN
space measure unit - SMU$
number of space measure units
of the territory – SUT
RESULT:
Ratio of disease new cases
per one space unit = (DN/SUT) / SMU$
Ratio of space units per one new case of
disease = (SUT/DN) SMU$ : 1
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of disease spreading:
2) ratio of disease new
cases/time units
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,TI$
definition of new cases - NC$ number of disease new cases - DN
time measure unit - TMU$
number of time measure units
of the period - TUP
RESULT:
Ratio of disease new cases
per one time unit = (DN/TUP) /
TMU$
Ratio of time units per one
new case of disease = (TUP/DN)
TMU$ : 1
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of disease spreading:
3) ratio of disease new
cases/total diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,TI$
definition of new cases - NC$ number of disease new cases - DN
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning of the period - DAO
total number of diseased
animals existing in the period - DAP
total average number of
diseased animals existing in the period
- DAA
RESULT:
Ratio of disease new cases
per one diseased animal existing at the
beginning of the period = DN/DAO
Ratio of diseased animals
existing at the beginning of the period
per one new case of disease = DAO/DN
Ratio of disease new cases
per one diseased animals existing in the
period = DN/DAP
Ratio of diseased animals
existing in the period per one new case
of disease = DAP/DN
Ratio of disease new cases
per one diseased animal of average number in the period = DN/DAA
Ratio of diseased animals'
average number existing in the period
per one new case of disease = DAA/DN
4.5-RELATIONS BETWEEN NEW
CASES AND SPACE/TIME/DISEASED/FOCI
This subprogramme calculates
following indicators of disease spreading: 4) ratio of new/total foci
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,TI$
definition of new foci - NC$ number of new foci - F
total number of foci existing
at the beginning of the period - FO
total number of foci existing
in the period - FP
total average number of foci
existing in the period - FA
RESULT:
Ratio of new foci per one
focus existing at the beginning of the
period = F/FO
Ratio of foci existing at the beginning of
the period per one new focus = FO/F
Ratio of new foci per one
focus existing in the period = F/FP
Ratio of foci existing in the
period per one new focus = FP/F
Ratio of new foci per one
focus of average existing in the period
= F/FA
Ratio of average number of
foci existing in the period per one new focus = FA/F
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme calculates: 1)
combination of existing, new and extinct
diseased animals
INPUT DATA
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
Question about indicator to be calculated to be left without any answer,
however the other three data (major than 0 !) must be given !
number of diseased animals
existing at the beginning - AO
number of new diseased
animals (newly diseased+new born
diseased+introduced) - AN
number of extinct diseased
animals (dead+slaughtered+removed+recovered) - AE
number of diseased animals
existing at the end of the period – AF
RESULT:
Number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the period = (AF-AN+AE)
Number of diseased animals
existing in the period = ((AF-AN+AE)+AN)
Number of new diseased
animals in the period =
(AF-AO+AE)
Number of diseased animals
existing in the period =
((AF-AN+AE)+AN)
Number of extinct diseased
animals in the period =
(AO-AF+AN)
Number of diseased animals
existing in the period = (AO+AN)
Number of diseased animals at
the end of the period = (AO+AN-AE)
Number of diseased animals
existing in the period = AO+AN
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) diseased animals' replacement rates
INPUT DATA
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
number of new diseased
animals (newly diseased+new born
diseased+introduced) - AB
total number of diseased
animals existing at the beginning of the
period - AO2
total number of diseased
animals existing in the period - AP
average number of diseased
animals existing in the period - AA
duration (in days) of one
population reproduction cycle - RC
RESULT:
Diseased animals replacement
rate to initial number = (AB+AI)/AO2
Diseased animals replacement
rate to existing number = (AB+AI)/AP
Diseased animals replacement
rate to average number = (AB+AI)/AA
Annual proportion of
population reproduction cycle = 365/RC
Number of years of population
reproduction cycle = RC/365
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) estimate of remaining diseased animals within one generation cycle
INPUT DATA
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning of the period - AO3
duration (in days) of one
regular generation (replacement/reproduction) cycle - RC
duration (in days) between the
initial and evaluated days w i t h i
n the generation cycle – PX
RESULT:
Estimated number of diseased
animals existing at the beginning and
still remaining */ at the evaluated day
= AO3*(1-PX/RC)
*/ Note: If not eliminated
prematurely and in the absence of migration.
4.6-POPULATION 'VERTICAL
MOVEMENT' AND CHRONIC DISEASE EPIZOOTIC PROCESS
This subprogramme
calculates: 4) estimate of remaining diseased animals
within one regular continuing production/breeding cycle
INPUT DATA
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning of the period
- AOP
duration (in days) of one
regular continuing production/breeding
replacement cycle - PPC
duration (in days) between the
initial and evaluated days w i t h i
n the production/breeding cycle - PPX
RESULT:
Estimated number of diseased
animals existing at the beginning and
still remaining */ at the evaluated day
= AOP*(1-PPX/PPC)
*/ Note: If not eliminated
prematurely and in absence of migration.
4.7-NUMBER OF DISEASED ANIMALS
ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
total number of diseased
animals at the beginning - A
number of age subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: names of subperiods, coefficients of diseased animals
survival probability (in form of proportions, i.e. numbers between >0
and 1 !) :
I: NA$(I),X(I)
R = cumulative multiples of X(I)
S = partial cumulative X(I) multiples
ESTIMATION OF DISEASED ANIMALS'
NUMBER ACCORDING TO SURVIVAL RATES
Age
Survival
Mortality Cumulative Surviving
Subperiod Rate
Rate Survival Dis.Animals
Rate at the End
I
NA$(I) X(I)
(1-X(I)) S
A*S
T o t a l R R*A
From the initial number of A
diseased animals after N age subperiods it can be estimated about R*A
surviving diseased animals (if not removed prematurely).
4.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
DISEASE TERRITORIAL PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates:
1) combination of velocity, distance and
time
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species - ES$
place, period - LU$,PE$
territorial surface measure
units - US$
length measure units - UD$
time measure units - UT$
Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be calculated
! Other two questions must be answered
!
velocity of disease
propagation per one time measure unit - V
distance of disease
propagation in length measure units - L
time of disease propagation
in time measure units - T
Additional input data:
average density of animals
per one surface unit - D
estimated excision angle
grade (1 - 360) of theoretical circular propagation - E
RESULT:
Estimated velocity of disease
propagation per one time measure unit
= L/T UD$
Estimated distance of disease
propagation during
Estimated time needed for
disease propagation up to the distance
of L
UD$ = L/V
UT$
W = E/360
L = V*T
Estimated affected zone (if
disease propagation is theoretically circular)
= L*L*3.1459
Estimated number of animals in
affected zone =
D*L*L*3.14159*W
4.8-SELECTED INDICATORS OF
DISEASE TERRITORIAL PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates:
2) relations of newly to total affected
territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species - ES$
place, period - LU$,PE$
territorial surface measure
units - US$
new affected territory in
surface units - SNT
affected territory at the
beginning of the period in surface
units - STO
affected territory existing
during the period in surface units - STP
affected territory average
existing during the period in surface units
- STA
RESULT:
Ratio of new affected
territory per one surface unit of initially affected territory = SNT/STO
Ratio of initially affected
territory per one surface unit of new affected territory = STO/SNT
Ratio of new affected
territory per one surface unit of affected territory existing during the
period = SNT/STP
Ratio of affected territory
existing during the period per one
surface unit of new affected territory
= STP/SNT
Ratio of new affected
territory per one surface unit of affected territory average during the
period = SNT/STA
Ratio of affected territory
average during the period per one surface unit of new affected territory = STA/SNT
4.9-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE
FREQUENCY WITH CYCLIC TENDENCY
(sinusoid curve formula adapted by the author:
Y=A*SIN(((B*(X-C))/D)+A+MIN )
(Y=number of diseased animals; X=I=time(in days, weeks, months or years)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
time measure units -
UT$:PRINT
supposed amplitude between
max/min number of diseased animals - A
minimal value of the curve of
diseased animals' number - MIN
duration between two peaks of
the curve (in time units) - V
initial value of time (in
time measure units) when the number of
diseased animals is in the curve middle
i.e. in the middle between maximum and minimum numbers - C
total duration of evaluated
period (in time measure units) - P
intervals in time units for calculation
of diseased animals - S
A = A/2
D = 57.2958 : change of radians in grades by dividing with coef.'D'
B = 360/V
DEVELOPMENT OF D I S E A S E FREQUENCY WITH C Y C L I C
T E N D E N C Y
Time-end of Estimated number
UT$ of diseased animals
FOR I=0 TO P step S
I (A*SIN(((I-C)*B)/D)+A+MIN)
4.10-DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE
FREQUENCY WITH ASCENDING/DESCENDING TENDENCY
(part of sinusoid curve formula
adapted by the author; applicable for a current natural course of epizootic
process in animal population when no
control action is taken)
for ascending curve: Y=A*SIN((B*X-90)/D)+A+MIN
for descending curve: Y=A*SIN((B*X+90)/D)+A+MIN
(Y=number of diseased animals; X=I=time(in days, weeks, months, etc.).
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
time measure units - UT$
supposed amplitude between
max/min numbers of diseased animals - A
period between max/min in
time measure units - MM
evaluated period duration in
time measure units - K
intervals in time units for
calculation of diseased animals - S
Curve of diseased animals numbers - ascending (a) or descending (d) - C$
If 'a'- minimum number of
diseased animals at the b e g i n n i n
g - MIN
If 'd'- minimal number of
diseased animals at the period e n
d - F
A = A/2 V = 2*MM B = 360/V
D=57.2958 (conversion coefficient of radians into grades)
A N I M A L D I S E A S E O C C U R R E N C E DEVELOPMENT
Time-end
of Estimated number
UT$ of diseased animals
For ascending curve:
(start) MIN
FOR I=S TO MM step S
I A*SIN((B*I-90)/D)+A+MIN
FOR I=MM+S TO K step S
I 2*A+MIN
For descending curve:
(start)
2*A+F
FOR I=1 TO MM step S
I (((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+F))
FOR I=MM+S TO K step S
I F
4.11-CHRONOLOGICAL TIME SERIES
OF POPULATION HEALTH PHENOMENON
INPUT DATA:
variable (indicator), period
- IN$,P$
number of data on time and
variables - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List subperiods or moments in chronological order, variable values:
I: U$(I),
V(I)
P1 = sum of I
P2 = sum of V(I)
P3 = sum of I*V(I)
P4 = sum of I^2
P5 = sum of (V(I))^2
B = (P3-P1*P2/N)/(P4-P1^2/N)
A = P2/N
If B<0 then Z$ = '-' else Z$ = '+'
CHRONOLOGICAL T I M E
S E R I E S OF POPULATION HEALTH
PHENOMENON
Order Subperiod/ Variable
I n
d e x
Number Moment Value Current Chained
1 U$(1) V(1)
100.00 100.00
I=2 to N
I U$(I) V(I)
(V(I)/V(1)*100) (V(I)/V(I-1)*100)
Linear trend - adjusted
line: Y
= A Z$ X B
(least square line)
5-SELECTED INDICATORS OF ANIMAL DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT
1-General indicators of animal disease
risk
2-Risk probability assessment of animal
disease introduction I.
3-Risk probability assessment of animal
disease introduction II.
4-Risk comparison of a disease
introduction from several territories
5-Risk comparison of several diseases
introduction from one territory
6-Animal population movement as
potential risk of disease propagation
7-Animal products transfer as potential
risk of disease propagation
8-Concentration of animals as potential
risk of disease propagation
9-Risk probability assessment of animal
disease propagation
10-Per capita food consumption as
potential risk of food-born diseases
(Note: See also module 11
of the Main Menu !)
5.1-GENERAL INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE RISK
(Ref.:Jenicek;
Martin; Toma)
INPUT DATA:
risk (disease) - RE$
place - LU$ time - TI$
species - ES$ category(ies) - CA$
Are you going to input relative (r) or absolute (a) data
? (Rates as proportions, i.e. numbers
between >0 and <1 !)
incidence rate (major) among
animals e x p o s e d to disease risk - A
incidence rate (minor) among
animals n o n-e x p o s e d to disease risk - B
RESULT:
Grade of relative risk (risk ratio) =
A/B
Grade of attributable
(differential) risk = A-B
Fraction of attributable
risk = (A-B)/A
Percentage of attributable
risk = ((A-B)/A)*100 %
OD=(A/(1-A))/(B/(1-B))
Grade of risk superiority (risk odds ratio, risk coefficient) = OD
5.1-GENERAL INDICATORS OF
ANIMAL DISEASE RISK
(Ref.:Jenicek;
Martin; Toma)
INPUT DATA:
risk (disease) - RE$
place - LU$ time - TI$
species - ES$ category(ies) - CA$
Are you going to input relative (r) or absolute (a) data ? a
number of diseased among
animals exposed to the risk - C
number of healthy among
animals exposed to the risk - D
number of diseased among
animals non-exposed to the risk - E
number of healthy among
animals non-exposed to the risk - F
RESULT:
PE=C/(C+D)
PNE=E/(E+F)
Grade of relative risk (risk
ratio) = PE/PNE
Grade of attributable
(differential) risk = PE-PNE
Fraction of attributable
risk = (PE-PNE)/PE
Percentage of attributable
risk = ((PE-PNE)/PE)*100 %
Grade of risk superiority
(risk odds ratio, risk coefficient)
= (C+F)/(E*D)
Grade of individual risk of
exposed animals = C/(C+D)
Grade of individual risk of
non-exposed animals = E/(E+F)
5.2-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION I
This subprogramme calculates a
rough probability of potential risk of
specific animal disease agents to be introduced into a territory
(country, province, region, ranch,
etc.) from abroad. Selected simple criteria
of i n a b i l i t y - failure
grades are used. The input and result
interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make
epizootiological sense. Note: Diseased
animals = affected clinically, subclinically and carriers of specific
etiological agents. Animal products = not sterilized raw animal products.
INPUT DATA:
specific disease - DI$
commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal
products (p) ? a
species/category - SP$
number of animals to be
imported - NA
type of animal product - TP$ measure units - MU$
quantity of product to be imported
- QP
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$ name of exporting unit/territory - EU$
time - period - PE$
All following questions must be
answered ! Disease prevalence rate and grades of input estimates must be major
than 0 and expressed as proportions !
Situation in the exporting
original territory/population/unit:
specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 -
<1) - PR
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to d i s c o v e r a l l specifically
d i s e a s e d a n i m a l
s and
h e r d s (considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods
used, population investigation grade, field and laboratory services
capabilities, active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc.) - GD
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to a v
o i d specific disease propagation (n e w
f o c i - focal incidence) due to
the lack of effective foci isolation and control and prevention field measures
during previous critical period -
GI
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to a
v o i d d i s e a s e d animals to be
e x p o r t e d (considering: pre-export
animal selection, testing, treatment and control measures, reliability of certificates, eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s of exporting diseased animals or
their products, etc.) - GF
RESULT:
P=PR*GI*GD*GF
Q=1-P
INF=SQR((P*Q)/NA)
Risk probability grade of disease introduction = P +-
1.96*INF
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about NA*P
5.2-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION I
INPUT DATA:
specific disease - DI$
commodity to be imported -
animals (a) or animal products (p) ? p
type of animal product - TP$ measure units - MU$
quantity of product to be
imported - QP
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$ name of exporting unit/territory - EU$
time - period - PE$
All following questions must be
answered ! Disease prevalence rate and
grades of input estimates must be major than 0 and expressed as proportions !
Situation in the exporting
original territory/population/unit:
specific disease prevalence rate - true or estimated (>0 -
<1) - PR
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to d i s c o v e r a l l specifically
d i s e a s e d a n i m a l
s, h e r d s and, particular products containing specific
disease etiological a g e n t s (considering:
sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, grade of population/product
investigation, field and laboratory services capabilities, reporting and information systems, etc.) - GD
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to a v o
i d the contamination of healthy products by specific pathogens during processing,
storing and transport - GI
estimated grade of i n a b i l i
t y (failure) to a v o i d specific etiological agents to be
exported by the particular commodity (considering: pre-export product
selection, testing, treatment and protection measures, reliability of
certificates, eventual p r e v i o u s
c a s e s of 'exporting'
diseases, etc.) - GF
RESULT:
P=PR*GI*GD*GF
Q=1-P
INF=SQR((P*Q)/QP)
Risk probability grade of disease introduction = P +-
1.96*INF
Estimated quantity of
infected or contaminated products to be
probably introduced is about QP*P MU$
5.3-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION II
This subprogramme calculates a
rough probability of potential risk of specific animal disease agents to be
introduced into a territory (country, province, region, ranch, etc.) from abroad.
Selected simple criteria of a b i l i t y
grades are used. The input and
result interpretation to be based upon theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make
epizootiological sense. Note: Diseased
animals = affected clinically, subclinically and carriers of specific etiological agents. Animal products = not sterilized raw animal products.
INPUT DATA:
specific disease - DI$
commodity to be imported - animals (a) or animal
products (p) ? a
species (category) - SP$
number of animals to be
imported - NA
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$ name of exporting unit/territory - EU$
All following questions must be
answered ! Disease prevalence rate and grades of input estimates must be major
than 0 and expressed as proportions!
Situation in the exporting
original territory/population/unit:
specific disease prevalence rate - real or estimated (>0 - 1) - PR
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r a l l specifically d i s e a s e d a n i m a l s and h
e r d s (considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, population
investigation grade, field and laboratory services capabilities, active field
surveys, reporting/information systems, etc.)
- GD
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d specific disease propagation
(avoiding n e w f o c i
- focal incidence) thanks to preventive/control field measures during
previous critical period - GI
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d d i s e a s e d animal(s)
to be e x p o r t e d (considering: pre-export animal selection,
testing, treatment and control measures, reliability of certificates, eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s
of exporting infected animals or products, etc.) - GF
RESULT:
P=PR*(1-GI)*(1-GD)*(1-GF)
Q=1-P
INF=SQR((P*Q)/NA)
Risk probability grade of disease introduction =
P +- 1.96*INF
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about NA*P
5.3-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE AGENTS INTRODUCTION II
INPUT DATA:
specific disease - DI$
commodity to be imported -
animals (a) or animal products (p) ?
p
type of animal product - TP$ measure units - MU$
quantity of product to be
imported - QP
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$ name of exporting unit/territory - EU$
All following questions must be
answered ! Disease prevalence rate and grades of input estimates must be major
than 0 and expressed as proportions!
Situation in the exporting
original territory/population/unit:
specific disease prevalence rate - real or estimated (>0 - 1) - PR
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r a l l specifically d i s e a s e d a n i m a l s, h e r d s
and animal products containing specific disease etiological a g e n t s
(considering: sensitivity/specificity of diagnostic methods used, grade
of population/product investigation, field and laboratory services
capabilities, reporting/information systems, etc.) - GD
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d contamination of
healthy products by specific pathogens during processing, storing and
transport
- GI
estimated grade of a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d specific etiological
agents to be exported by the particular commodity (considering: pre-export
product selection, testing, treatment,
and protection measures, reliability of certificates, eventual p r e v i
o u s c a s e s of 'exporting' the disease, etc.) - GF
RESULT:
P=PR*(1-GI)*(1-GD)*(1-GF)
Q=1-P
INF=SQR((P*Q)/QP)
Risk probability grade of disease introduction =
P +- 1.96*INF
Estimated quantity of
affected products to be probably
introduced is about QP*P MU$
5.4-RISK COMPARISON OF DISEASE
AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM SEVERAL TERRITORIES
This subprogramme compares relative risks of specific disease agents to
be introduced by direct import from territories
n o t f r e e of the disease.
Criteria on disease and
exporting territories situation:
a) grade of disease transmissibility - ability to be propagated
b) grade of disease occurrence - considering prevalence, incidence and
spread
c) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r all infected
animals and herds (due to insufficient:
sensitivity of diagnostic methods used, animal population investigation grade, field
and laboratory services capabilities,
active field surveys, reporting/information systems, etc.)
d) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d disease propagation
(new foci) i.e. inability to protect
specific disease free animals, herds and territory (due to the lack of or insufficient
preventive and control field measures)
e) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
r e d u c e disease o c c u r r e n c e (due to the lack or insufficient: reduction,
elimination and/or eradication field
measures, sanitation actions, field and laboratory services, etc.)
f) grade of i n e f f e c t i v e
n e s s of pre-export
'f i l t e r' (due to lack or
insufficient: pre-export selection, treatment, investigations and control measures,
reliability of veterinary services and their certificates), considering also
eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s of 'exporting' infected animals or
infected/contaminated commodities, etc.
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
importing territory, time -
LU$,TI$
commodity - CO$
Number of exporting
territories to be compared - N
Key estimated criteria values on the disease and exporting territories using the
s c a l e of the g r a d e s
from 0 to 10 !:
FOR I=1 TO N
Territory No. I
name: N$(I)
grade of the disease
transmissibility
- B#(I)
grade of the disease
occurrence
- G#(I)
(For the comparison of
risk from affected territories the
occurrence grade must be m a j o r than 0 !)
grade of inability to discover
the disease - Z#(I)
grade of inability to avoid new
foci - S#(I)
grade of inability to reduce
the disease at the territory level - F#(I)
grade of ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' -
D#(I)
The values of importance
multiplier coefficients are fixed (default) as follows:
a) disease
transmissibility
= 5
b) disease
occurrence = 25
c) inability to
discover the disease = 8
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease = 5
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease = 3
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' = 10
Do you accept this
coefficients (y) or you will fixe others (o) ? o
Define other values of
importance multiplier coefficients (integers !):
a) disease
transmissibility
- IGB
b) disease
occurrence
- IGE
c) inability to
discover the disease -
IGZ
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease - IGS
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease - IGF
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' - IGD
RISK COMPARISON OF DISEASE
AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM SEVERAL TERRITORIES
Exporting Grade of Disease Grade
of I n a b i l i t y to
Territory ----------------------- ----------------------------------------
T O T A L
(with disease trans- occur-
disco- avoid reduce avoid
occurrence) missi- rence
ver new
occur- agents r i s k
bility disease foci rence
'export' points
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multiplier *IGB
*IGE *IGZ *IGS *IGF *IGD
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N$(I) B#(I) G#(I) Z#(I)
S#(I) F#(I) D#(I) SU#(I)
SU#(I)=B#(I)*IGB+G#(I)*IGE+Z#(I)*IGZ+S#(I)*IGS+F#(I)*IGF+D#(I)*IGD
Territory Proportion Percentage
of the total T
allocated risk points
N$(I) SU#(I)/T SU#(I)/T*100
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of SU#(I)
5.5-RISK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL
DISEASES INTRODUCTION FROM
This subprogramme compares relative risks of specific diseases agents to
be introduced by import from one territory
n o t f r e e of these diseases.
Criteria on diseases and
exporting territory situation:
a) grade of disease transmissibility - ability to be propagated
b) grade of disease occurrence - considering prevalence, incidence and
spread
c) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
d i s c o v e r all infected
animals and herds (due to insufficient:
sensitivity of diagnostic methods used, animal population investigation grade, field and laboratory services capabilities, active field surveys,
reporting/information systems, etc.)
d) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
a v o i d disease propagation
(new foci) i.e. inability to protect
specific disease free animals, herds and territory (due to the lack of or insufficient
preventive and control field measures)
e) grade of i n a b i l i t
y to
r e d u c e disease o c c u r r e n c e (due to the lack or insufficient: reduction,
elimination and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, field and
laboratory services, etc.)
f) grade of i n e f f e c t i v e
n e s s of pre-export 'f i l t e r' (due to lack or insufficient: pre-export
selection, treatment, investigations
and control measures, reliability of veterinary services and their certificates), considering also
eventual p r e v i o u s c a s e s of 'exporting' infected animals or
infected/contaminated commodities, etc.
INPUT DATA:
exporting territory - EX$
importing territory, time -
LU$,TI$
commodity - CO$
Number of selected diseases
to be compared - N
Key estimated criteria values on the diseases and exporting territory using the
s c a l e of the g r a d e s
from 0 to 10 !:
FOR I=1 TO N
Disease No. I :
name: N$(I)
grade of the disease
transmissibility
- B#(I)
grade of the disease
occurrence
- G#(I)
(For the comparison of risk
from affected territories the occurrence
grade must be major than 0 (zero risk).
grade of inability to discover
the disease - Z#(I)
grade of inability to avoid new
foci - S#(I)
grade of inability to reduce
the disease at the territory level - F#(I)
grade of ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' -
D#(I)
The values of importance
multiplier coefficients are fixed (default) as follows:
a) disease
transmissibility = 5
b) disease
occurrence
= 25
c) inability to
discover the disease = 8
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease = 5
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease = 3
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' = 10
Do you accept this coefficients
(y) or you will fix others (o) ? o
Define other values of
importance multiplier coefficients (integers !):
a) disease transmissibility - IGB
b) disease
occurrence
- IGE
c) inability to
discover the disease -
IGZ
d) inability to avoid
new foci of the disease - IGS
e) inability to reduce
occurrence of the disease - IGF
f) ineffectiveness of
pre-export 'filter' - IGD
RISK COMPARISON OF SEVERAL
DISEASES AGENTS INTRODUCTION FROM
Grade
of Grade of
i n a b i l i t y to
------------------ ----------------------------------------- T O T A L
D i s e a s e trans- occur- disco-
avoid reduce avoid
missi- rence ver new
occur- agents r i
s k
bility disease foc i
rence 'export' points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Multiplier *IGB *IGE
*IGZ *IGS
*IGF *IGD
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N$(I) B#(I) G#(I) Z#(I) S#(I) F#(I) D#(I) SU#(I)
SU#(I)=B#(I)*IGB+G#(I)*IGE+Z#(I)*IGZ+S#(I)*IGS+F#(I)*IGF+D#(I)*IGD
Disease Proportion Percentage
of the
total T
allocated risk points
N$(I) SU#(I)/T SU#(I)/T*100
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of SU#(I)
5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
animal population movement in terms of:
1) combination of distance, time
and velocity
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
territory, period - TER$,PE$
place(s) of origin, of
destination - OP$,DP$
number of animals moved
between origin and destination places - TAM
purpose (P$): rearing (r), fattening (f) or slaughter
(s) or natural (n) ? r
length measure units - UD$
time measure units - UT$
Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be calculated;
the other two numeric data must be available !
velocity of the movement per
one time measure unit - V
distance of the movement in
length measure units - L
time of the movement in time
measure units - T
RESULT:
Estimated velocity of animal movement per one time measure unit = L/T
UD$
Estimated distance of animal
movement during
Estimated time needed for
animal movement up to the distance
of L
UD$ = L/V
UT$
5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
animal population movement in terms of: 1) combination
of distance, time and velocity
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
territory, period - TER$,PE$
place(s) of origin, of
destination - OP$,DP$
number of animals moved
between origin and destination places - TAM
purpose (P$): rearing (r),
fattening (f) or slaughter (s) or natural
(n) ? n
length measure units - UD$
time measure units - UT$
Do not answer (skip) the question about the indicator to be
calculated; the other two numeric data
must be available !
velocity of the movement per
one time measure unit - V
distance of the movement in
length measure units - L
time of the movement in time
measure units - T
RESULT:
Estimated velocity of animal
movement per one time measure unit = L/T UD$
Estimated distance of animal
movement during
Estimated time needed for
animal movement up to the distance
of L
UD$ = L/V
UT$
5.6-ANIMAL POPULATION MOVEMENT
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
animal population movement in terms of:
2) indicators related to movement
extent, dispersion and convergency
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
territory, period - TER$,PE$
place(s) of origin, of destination
- OP$,DP$
number of animals moved
between origin and destination places - TAM
purpose (P$): rearing (r),
fattening (f) or slaughter (s) or
natural (n) ? s
distance, duration in days -
VZ$,DU
numbers of places of origin,
of destination -
level (regional, national,
international, etc.) - LM$
form of movement (transport
means, on foot, etc.) - FM$
RESULT:
Ratio destination/origin places (dispersion) = PD/PO
Ratio origin/destination
places (convergency) = PO/PD
Average of introduced animals per
one destination place = TAM/PD
Average number of introduced
animals per one day = TAM/DU
5.7-ANIMAL PRODUCTS TRANSFER
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
indicators related to raw animal products transfer (distribution) extent,
dispersion and convergency.
INPUT DATA:
animal product, measure units
- ES$,PMU$
territory framework, period -
LU$,PE$
place(s) of origin, of
destination - OP$,DP$
What is the purpose ? Further processing (f), distribution (d)
consumption (c), export e) or import
(i) ? e
amount of the product
transferred between origin and
destination places in product measure units - TAM
amount of the product
produced locally in destination places (territory) - A
distance of transfer - L$
time measure units, duration
of transfer - UT$,DU
numbers of places of origin,
of destination -
surface measure units - SMU$
size of territory of product
origin in surface units - SO
size of territory of product
destination in surface units - SD
level (regional, national,
international, etc.) - LM$
form of transport - FM$
RESULT:
Ratio introduced/total (introduced+local) products =
A/(A+TAM)
Ratio introduced/local
products = 1 :
A/TAM =
TAM/A
Ratio local/introduced
products = 1 :
TAM/A = A/TAM
Ratio destination/origin places
(dispersion) = PD/PO
Ratio origin/destination
places (convergency) = PO/PD
Ratio destination/origin
territories' size = SD/SO
Ratio origin/destination
territories' size = SO/SD
Average of introduced product per
one destination place = TAM/PD PMU$
Average of introduced product per
one time unit = TAM/DU PMU$
5.7-ANIMAL PRODUCTS TRANSFER
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates
indicators related to raw animal products
transfer (distribution) extent, dispersion and convergency.
INPUT DATA:
animal product, measure units
- ES$,PMU$
territory framework, period - LU$,PE$
place(s) of origin, of
destination - OP$,DP$
What is the purpose ? Further processing (f), distribution (d) consumption (c), export e) or import (i) ? d
amount of the product
transferred between origin and
destination places in product measure units - TAM
amount of the product
produced locally in destination places (territory) - A
distance of transfer - L$
time measure units, duration
of transfer - UT$,DU
numbers of places of origin,
of destination -
surface measure units - SMU$
size of territory of product
origin in surface units - SO
size of territory of product
destination in surface units - SD
level (regional, national,
international, etc.) - LM$ form of transport - FM$
RESULT:
Ratio introduced/total (introduced+local) products =
A/(A+TAM)
Ratio introduced/local
products = 1 :
A/TAM = TAM/A
Ratio local/introduced
products = 1 :
TAM/A = A/TAM
Ratio destination/origin places
(dispersion) = PD/PO
Ratio origin/destination
places (convergency) =
PO/PD
Ratio destination/origin
territories' size = SD/SO
Ratio origin/destination
territories' size = SO/SD
Average of introduced product per
one destination place = TAM/PD PMU$
Average of introduced product per
one time unit = TAM/DU PMU$
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates simple indicators related to the
concentration grade of animals on surface and in volume space of environment:
1) concentration on known surface space
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of animals - A
type of location
[territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es), farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s),
box(es), etc.] - TL$
identification (name) of
location(s) - ID$
surface space measure unit
(m2, ha, km2, shed, farm, etc.) - SU$
known space for all animals
in surface measure units - KS
standard (norm) value in
space units - ST#
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one surface unit = A/KS
Average surface space per one
animal = KS/A SU$
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
(KS/A)/ST#
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
2) concentration
on unknown surface space (to be calculated)
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of animals - A
type of location
[territory(ies), pasture(s), ranch(es), farm(s), stable(s), shed(s), pen(s),
box(es), etc.] - TL$
identification (name) of
location(s) - ID$
surface space measure
unit -
SU$ length measure unit - LMU$
length of the space
surface
- LE width (span) of the space surface - WI
standard (norm) value in
space units - ST#
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one surface unit = A/KS
Average surface space per one
animal = KS/A SU$
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
(KS/A)/ST#
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
3) concentration
in known volume space
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of animals - A
type of location (air space
in stable, shed, box, etc. or water environment in reservoir, etc.) - TL$
identification (name) of
location(s) - ID$
volume space measure
units -
VMU$ known volume space for the animals - KV
standard (norm) value in
space units - ST#
RESULT:
Average number of animals per
one VMU$ = A/KV
Average volume space per one
animal = KV/A VMU$
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
(KV/A)/ST#
5.8-CONCENTRATION OF ANIMALS
AS POTENTIAL RISK OF DISEASE PROPAGATION
4) concentration in unknown volume space
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
number of animals - A
type of location (air space in stable, shed,
box, etc. or water environment in reservoir, etc.) - TL$
identification (name) of
location(s) - ID$
volume space measure
units -
VMU$ length measure units - LMU$
length, width (span) of the
space - LE,WI height of the space - H
standard (norm) value in
space units - ST#
RESULT:
Average number of animals per one VMU$ = A/KV
Average volume space per one
animal = KV/A VMU$
Ratio standard to compared
space per one animal = 1 :
(KV/A)/ST#
5.9-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION
This subprogramme calculates a
rough risk probability of specific animal disease agents to be spread from
existing foci creating new ones. The
input and result interpretation to be based
on theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make
epizootiological sense. A l l questions about grades and rates must be
answered and be major than 0 but not
major than 1 !
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
disease- DI$ animal species - SP$
definition of focal units -
FU$ definition of foci - FO$
Input rates (true, supposed or estimated) and grades to be expressed as proportions, i.e. numbers
between >0 and 1 !.
True situation in the given
territory/population:
prevalence rate of specifically diseased animals - DPR
incidence rate of specifically diseased animals - IN
prevalence rate of specific disease f o c i - PR
incidence rate of specific disease
f o c i -
FI
t e n d e n c y of specific
epizootic process - stagnating
(s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d)
? s
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to r e d u c e
the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction,
elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and
laboratory services, etc. - GR
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to p r o t e c t
disease free part of population (n e w
f o c i) due to lack of
effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and
their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs,
etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods,
veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.
– GP
RESULT:
A=DPR+IN+PR+4*FI
Z=((A*SQR(GR)*SQR(GP)))
W=Z-Z*GT/2
Risk probability grade of disease propagation can be estimated to be about
W i.e. about W*100 %
5.9-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
disease- DI$ animal species - SP$
definition of focal units -
FU$ definition of foci - FO$
Input rates (true, supposed or estimated) and grades to be expressed as proportions, i.e. numbers
between >0 and 1 !.
True situation in the given
territory/population:
prevalence rate of specifically diseased animals - DPR
incidence rate of specifically diseased animals - IN
prevalence rate of specific disease f o c i - PR
incidence rate of specific disease
f o c i -
FI
t e n d e n c y of specific
epizootic process - stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d)
? i
- estimated increasing or decreasing
g r a d e considering the
characteristics of specific disease process (interaction
of population-pathogens-environment, development stage), role of influencing
factors, p r e v i o u s propagation
intensity etc. - GT
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to r e d u c e
the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction,
elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and
laboratory services, etc. - GR
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to p r o t e c t
disease free part of population (n e w
f o c i) due to lack of
effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and
their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs,
etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods,
veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.
– GP
RESULT:
A=DPR+IN+PR+4*FI
Z=((A*SQR(GR)*SQR(GP)))
W=Z+Z*GT
Risk probability grade of
disease propagation can be estimated to
be about W i.e. about
W*100 %
5.9-RISK PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT OF ANIMAL DISEASE PROPAGATION
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
disease- DI$ animal species - SP$
definition of focal units -
FU$ definition of foci - FO$
Input rates (true, supposed or estimated) and grades to be expressed as proportions, i.e. numbers
between >0 and 1 !.
True situation in the given
territory/population:
prevalence rate of specifically diseased animals - DPR
incidence rate of specifically diseased animals - IN
prevalence rate of specific disease f o c i - PR
incidence rate of specific disease
f o c i -
FI
t e n d e n c y of specific
epizootic process - stagnating (s), increasing (i) or decreasing (d) ? d
- estimated increasing or decreasing
g r a d e considering the
characteristics of specific disease process (interaction of
population-pathogens-environment, development stage), role of influencing
factors, p r e v i o u s propagation
intensity etc. - GT
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to r e d u c e
the number of foci due to the lack of effective: field reduction,
elimination, and/or eradication measures, sanitation actions, veterinary field and
laboratory services, etc. - GR
- estimated grade of i n a b i l
i t y to p r o t e c t
disease free part of population (n e w
f o c i) due to lack of
effective: protection measures against the contacts with intrafocal animals and
their products or with other etiological agents' sources (vectors, wild animals-reservoirs,
etc.), population specific resistance (vaccination), diagnostic methods,
veterinary field and laboratory services, etc.
– GP
RESULT:
A=DPR+IN+PR+4*FI
Z=((A*SQR(GR)*SQR(GP)))
W=Z-Z*GT/2
Risk probability grade of
disease propagation can be estimated to
be about W i.e. about
W*100 %
5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD
CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person
according to: 1) food
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
total number of persons - IH
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data - names, units quantity
in measure units:
I: food, measure units, quantity -
P$(I),U$(I),Q#(I)
T = sum of Q#(I)
S = sum of S(I)
RESULT:
Food Measure Quantity Average
Units per Capita
P$(I) U$(I) Q#(I) Q#(I)/IH
5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD
CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person
according to: 2) place
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
food - PR$ food measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data - names, quantity in
measure units:
I: place, persons, food quantity -
IN$(I),S(I),Q#(I)
T = sum of Q#(I)
S = sum of S(I)
RESULT:
Place Persons Quantity
Average G r a n d T o t a l
of Food per Capita Proportion %
IN$(I) S(I) Q#(I) Q#(I)/S(I) Q#(I)/T
Q#(I)/T*10
T o t a l S
T
T/S
1.0000 100.0000
5.10-PER CAPITA FOOD
CONSUMPTION AS POTENTIAL RISK OF FOOD-BORN DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates average consumption per one person
according to: 3) time
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
food - PR$ food measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data - names, quantity in
measure units:
I: subperiod, persons, food quantity - IN$(I),S(I),Q#(I)
T = sum of Q#(I)
S = sum of S(I)
RESULT:
Superiod Persons Quantity
Average Grand T o t
a l
of Food
per Capita
Proportion %
IN$(I) S(I)
Q#(I)
Q#(I)/S(I) Q#(I)/T Q#(I)/T*100
T o t a l S
T
T/S
1.0000
100.0000
6-CONSEQUENCES OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH AND DISEASE
1-Animal health benefit and disease
losses in production
2-Public health consequences of
diseases common to animals and man
3-Losses due to specific disease
according to average parameters
4-Losses due to death and condemnation
of animal carcasses
5-Losses due to diseased animals'
utility reduction
6-Losses due to diseased animals'
reproduction deterioration
7-Inputs' benefit/losses in
healthy/diseased animals
8-Summary tables of losses due to
animal population diseases
9-Cost of animal population health
actions
10-Economic losses due to population
health/disease measures' costs
11-Blanc summary tables of animal
population disease consequences
6.1-ANIMAL HEALTH BENEFIT AND DISEASE LOSSES
IN PRODUCTION
This programme calculates the
benefit/losses in production: 1) using
number of healthy and diseased
animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
production indicator - PR$ production indicator measure units - E$
monetary units - F$
average price of one
production measure unit -
G
average number of production
units per one healthy animal - A
average number of production
units per one diseased animal - B
average number of healthy
animals - C
average number of diseased
animals - D
RESULT:
Estimated production benefit
of animal disease free status = ((A-B)*C)
production units of value =
((A-B)*C*G) F$
Estimated production losses
due to animal disease(s) = ((A-B)*D)
production units of value = ((A-B)*D*G) F$
6.1-ANIMAL HEALTH BENEFIT AND
DISEASE LOSSES IN PRODUCTION
This programme calculates the
benefit/losses in production: 2) using method II. (based on average number
of production units per animal, per
healthy animal and per diseased
animal and average number of all
animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
production indicator - PR$ production indicator measure units - E$
monetary units - F$
average price of one
production measure unit -
G
average number of production
units per one animal - A
average number of production
units per one diseased animal - B
average number of production
units per one healthy animal - C
average number of animals of
a given population - D
RESULT:
Estimated production benefit
of animal disease free status = ((A-B)*D)
production units of value =
((A-B)*D*G) F$
Estimated production losses
due to animal disease(s) = ((C-A)*D)
production units of value = ((C-A)*D*G) F$
6.2-PUBLIC HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
OF DISEASES COMMON TO ANIMALS AND MAN
It includes only consequences which
can be quantified in monetary terms.
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
place, period - L$,P$
monetary units - M$
1. value of preventive
investigations - A
2. value of diseased persons'
investigations - B
3. value of specific
vaccinations -
C
4. value of preventive
treatments - D
5. value of curative
treatments -
E
6. value of sanitation
actions - F
7. value of hospitalization
(except costs mentioned above) - G
8. loss due to working
incapacity - I
9. cost of specific control
measures - J
10. value of compensations and
subsidies - K
11. cost of public health
services - L
12. cost of public health
extension work - M
13. cost of specific research
and training - N
14. loss due to epidemiolog.
limitations and prohibitions - O
15. other costs related to
disease(s) and epi. measures - P
Z = A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J+K+L+M+N+O+P
RESULT:
L o s s / C o s t T y p e
M$
Proportion Percentage
1.Preventive investigations A
A/Z A/Z*100
2.Dis.persons'
investigations B B/Z B/Z*100
3.Vaccinations C C/Z C/Z*100
4.Preventive treatments D D/Z D/Z*100
5.Curative treatments E E/Z E/Z*100
6.Sanitation F F/Z
F/Z*100
7.Hospitalization G
G/Z G/Z*100
8.Working incapacity I I/Z
I/Z*100
9.Control measures J J/Z
J/Z*100
10.Compensation/subsidies K K/Z K/Z*100
11.Public health services L L/Z
L/Z*100
12.Public health extension M
M/Z M/Z*100
13.Research and training N
N/Z N/Z*100
14.Epid.limitation/prohibition O
O/Z O/Z*100
15.Others P P/Z
P/Z*100
T o t a l Z 1.0000 100.0000
6.3-LOSSES DUE TO SPECIFIC DISEASE
ACCORDING TO AVERAGE PARAMETERS
(Included quantified losses only)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
lost product, product measure
units - PR$,PMU$
monetary units - F$
absolute (a) or relative (r) data on diseased animals occurrence can be
used
number of specifically
diseased animals - Z
number of animals existing in
the given period - A
percentage of specifically
diseased animals - M
average
(estimated,standardized) percentage of specific lethality - L
average (estimated, standardized)
loss in products of one specifically diseased animal in product measure
units - P
average (estimated, standardized)
loss in weight of one specifically
diseased animal in kg
- I
average price of one animal
of the same species/category - PA
average price of one unit of
the given product - PP
average price of one kg of
animal weight - PI
RESULT:
Estimated number of deaths
= Y animals of value
= Y*PA F$
Estimated loss of
((Z-Y)*P) PMU$ of PR$ of value
= ((Z-Y)*P*PP) F$
Estimated loss of
weight = (Z-Y)*I kg of value
= (Z-Y)*I*PI) F$
T o t a l estimated loss =
((Y*PA+(Z-Y)*P*PP+(Z-Y)*I*PI)) F$
6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND
CONDEMNATION OF ANIMALS CARCASSES
This subprogramme calculates
losses: 1) in block
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - L$,B$
average live weight of
animals in kg - PE
monetary units - F$ average price of one kg of live
weight - PR
number of naturally dead
diseased animals - M
number of destroyed diseased
and suspect animals - S
number of condemned carcasses
of slaughtered diseased animals - D
RESULT:
K=M+S+D
Q=K*PE
L=K*PE*PR
Loss Type Number of Weight
Value in Proportion
animals in kg
F$
Naturally dead M
M*PE
M*PE*PR M/K
Destroyed S
S*PE
S*PE*PR
S/K
Condemned D
D*PE
D*PE*PR
D/K
T o t a l K
Q
L
1.000000
6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND
CONDEMNATION OF ANIMALS CARCASSES
This subprogramme calculates
losses: 2) according to space
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - L$,B$
average live weight of
animals in kg - PE
monetary units - F$ average price of one kg of live
weight - PR
number of places - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List space or time names,
numbers of dead, sanitary destroyed, condemned diseased animals' carcasses:
I: PL$(I),
M(I),S(I),D(I)
RESULT:
P l a c e Dead
Dest- Con-
Total Weight Value in
Animals royed
demned Number in kg F$
PL$(I) M(I) S(I) D(I)
(M(I)+S(I)+D(I)) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE*PR)
T o t a l M S
D M+S+D
(M+S+D)*PE (M+S+D)*PE*PR
M = sum of M(I)
S = sum of S(I)
D = sum of D(I)
P l a c e L o s t v a l u e s in:
Proportion Percentage
PL$(I) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE*PR)/((M+S+D)*PE*PR) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE*PR)/((M+S+D)*PE*PR)*100
T o t a l 1.0000
100.0000
6.4-LOSSES DUE TO DEATH AND
CONDEMNATION OF ANIMALS CARCASSES
This subprogramme calculates
losses: 3) according to time
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - L$,B$
average live weight of
animals in kg - PE
monetary units - F$ average price of one kg of live
weight - PR
number of subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List space or time names,
numbers of dead, sanitary destroyed,
condemned diseased animals' carcasses:
I: PL$(I),
M(I),S(I),D(I)
RESULT:
S u b p e r i o d Dead Dest-
Con- Total
Weight
Value in
Animals
royed demned Number in kg F$
PL$(I) M(I)
S(I) D(I) (M(I)+S(I)+D(I)) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE*PR)
T o t a l M
S D M+S+D
(M+S+D)*PE
(M+S+D)*PE*PR
M = sum of M(I)
S = sum of S(I)
D = sum of D(I)
S u b p e r i o d L o s t v a
l u e s in:
Proportion
Percentage
PL$(I) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE*PR)/((M+S+D)*PE*PR) ((M(I)+S(I)+D(I))*PE*PR)/((M+S+D)*PE*PR)*100
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
(in terms of selected
quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples: - period for reaching maturity; body weight
gain/loss, offtake (sales, slaughter, culling),
yields (meat, milk, eggs, wool, honey
etc.);
- production per animal, per
monetary unit, per feed unit, per manpower unit, per space unit (m2,ha,km2,etc.), per
time unit, per other input unit;
- analogical inputs per one
production unit;
- culled animals, weight at a given age, stage
of fattening, age/duration of
breeding/fattening to achieve a given body weight;
- qualitatively classified
products, etc.;
- ability to work, herd
composition, etc.
This subprogramme calculates:
1) One
indicator in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
selected animal utility
indicator - I$ selected indicator measure units - U$
price of one unit of selected
indicator - P
number of diseased
animals - N
average value of selected
indicator in measure units in healthy animals - S in diseased animals - E
RESULT:
IF E>S THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=+1
D=Z*(S-E)
T=D*N
Difference of average values
of I$ between healthy and diseased
animals = D U$
T o t a l estimated loss =
T U$ of value
= T*P M$
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
This subprogramme calculates:
2) One
indicator in more than one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
selected animal utility
indicator - I$
selected indicator measure
units - U$
price of one unit of selected
indicator - P
number of data to be
processed - NN
FOR I=1 to NN
List of data in following
sequence: subterritory, number of
diseased animals, average value of
selected indicator in measure units in
healthy animals, in diseased animals:
I: PL$(I),
NDA(I),H(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Subterritory Diseased
Average Average
Total
Value of
Animals Value
in Value in Diffe- Loss in
Number
Healthy Diseased
rence M$
PL$(I)
NDA(I)
H(I) D(I) (NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I)) ((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P))
IF H(I)<D(I) THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=+1
Y = sum of
((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P))
T o t a l value of estimated loss = Y M$
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
This subprogramme calculates:
3) More
indicators in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
number of diseased animals -
NDA
number of indicators to be
processed - NN
FOR I=1 TO NN
List of data in following sequence: selected indicator, measure units, price, average value of selected indicator in
measure units in healthy animals, in
diseased animals:
I: I$(I),MU$(I), P(I),H(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Indicator Units Price
I
n d i
c a t
o r Total Value of
per
Average in Average in Diffe- Loss in
Unit
Healthy
Diseased rence M$
I$(I) MU$(I) P(I) H(I) D(I)
Z*(NDA*DIF(I) (Z*(NDA*DIF(I)))*P(I)
IF H(I)<D(I) THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=+1
DIF(I)=(H(I)-D(I))
W = sum of (((NDA*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P(I))))
T o t a l value of estimated loss = W M$
6.5-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' UTILITY REDUCTION
This subprogramme calculates:
4) One
indicator in more than one subperiod
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
selected animal utility
indicator - I$ selected indicator measure units - U$
price of one unit of selected
indicator - P
number of data to be
processed - NN
FOR I=1 to NN
List of data in following
sequence: subperiod name, number of
diseased animals, average value of selected
indicator in measure units in healthy
animals, in diseased animals:
I: PL$(I),
NDA(I),H(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Subperiod Diseased Average
Average Total Value of
Animals
Value in Value in
Diffe- Loss in
Number Healthy
Diseased rence M$
PL$(I) NDA(I)
H(I) D(I)
(NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I)) ((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P))
IF H(I)<D(I) THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=+1
Y = sum of
((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P))
T o t a l value of estimated loss = Y M$
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
(in terms of selected
quantitative or qualitative indicators)
Indicators' examples: fertility
rate, number of new born animals, birth rate, new born or weaned per mother, per a given period, parturition
rate, number of offsprings per
parturition, weaning rate, pregnancy rate, non-pregnancy rate, service period, parturition interval, replacement
rate, age at sexual maturity, etc.
This subprogramme calculates: 1) One
indicator in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
selected indicator of animal
reproduction - I$ selected indicator measure units - U$
price of one unit of selected
indicator - P
number of diseased
animals - N
average value of selected
indicator in measure units in healthy
animals - S
in diseased animals - E
RESULT:
IF E>S THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=1
D=Z*(S-E)
T=D*N
Difference of average
values of I$ between healthy and
diseased animals = D U$
T o t a l estimated
loss = T U$ of
value = T*P M$
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) One indicator in more than one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
selected indicator of animal
reproduction - I$ selected indicator measure units - U$
price of one unit of selected
indicator - P
number of data to be
processed -NN
FOR I=1 TO NN
List of data in following
sequence: place name, number of
diseased animals, average value of
selected indicator in measure units in
healthy animals, in diseased animals:
I: PL$(I), NDA(I),H(I),D(I)
RESULT:
I n
d i c a t o r
Place Diseased Average Average
Total
Value of
Animals
Value in Value
in Diffe-
Loss in
Number
Healthy
Diseased
rence
M$
PL$(I) NDA(I) H(I) D(I) (NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))) (((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P))
IF H(I)<D(I) THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=1
Y = sum of (((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P)))
T o t a l value of estimated loss = Y M$
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) More indicators in one place (population)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
number of diseased animals -
NDA
number of reproduction
indicators to be processed - NN
FOR I=1 TO NN
List of data in following sequence: selected indicator, measure units, price, average value of selected indicator in
measure units in healthy animals, in
diseased animals:
I: I$(I),MU$(I), P(I),H(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Indicator Units
Price I n
d i c a t
o r Total Value of
per
Average in Average in Diffe- Loss in
Unit
Healthy Diseased
rence M$
I$(I) MU$(I)
P(I) H(I)
D(I) Z*(NDA*DIF(I) (Z*(NDA*DIF(I)))*P(I)
DIF(I)=(H(I)-D(I))
W = sum of (((NDA*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P(I))))
T o t a l value of estimated loss = W M$
6.6-LOSSES DUE TO DISEASED
ANIMALS' REPRODUCTION DETERIORATION
This subprogramme calculates:
4) One
indicator in more than one subperiod
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
selected indicator of animal
reproduction - I$ selected indicator measure units - U$
price of one unit of selected
indicator - P
number of data to be
processed -NN
FOR I=1 TO NN
List of data in following
sequence: subperiod name, number of
diseased animals, average value of
selected indicator in measure units in
healthy animals, in diseased animals:
I: PL$(I), NDA(I),H(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Subperiod Diseased Average Average
Total Value
of
Animals Value
in Value in
Diffe- Loss in
Healthy
Diseased rence
M$
PL$(I) NDA(I)
H(I) D(I) (NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))) (((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P))
IF H(I)<D(I) THEN Z=-1 ELSE Z=1
Y = sum of (((NDA(I)*Z*(H(I)-D(I))*P)))
T o t a l value of estimated loss = Y M$
6.7-INPUTS' BENEFIT/LOSSES IN
HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS
This programme calculates the
benefit/losses in inputs: 1) using
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
production input indicator -
I$ input indicator measure units - U$
monetary units - M$
price of one measure unit of
input indicator - P
average production input in
indicator measure units
a) per one healthy animal - B
b) per one diseased animal - A
average number of healthy animals in the
population - C
average number of diseased
animals in the population - D
RESULT:
Estimated benefit due to
minor inputs in C healthy animals = (A-B)*C
U$ of I$ of value =
(A-B)*C*P M$
Estimated loss due to major
inputs in D diseased animals = (A-B)*D
U$ of I$ of value
= (A-B)*D*P M$
6.7-INPUTS' BENEFIT/LOSSES IN
HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS
This programme calculates the
benefit/losses in inputs: 2) using method II. (based on number of
diseased animals and average inputs in
healthy and diseased animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
production input indicator -
I$ input indicator measure units - U$
monetary units - M$
price of one measure unit of
input indicator - P
total number of diseased
animals - N
average production input in
indicator measure units per one healthy
animal - S
per one diseased animal - E
RESULT:
D=E-S
T=D*N
Average difference of I$ values between healthy and diseased animals = D U$ =
D*P M$
Estimated total loss
= T
U$ of value =
T*P M$
6.7-INPUTS' BENEFIT/LOSSES IN
HEALTHY/DISEASED ANIMALS
This programme calculates the
benefit/losses in inputs: 3) using
method III. (based on average number of all animals and average inputs in all, healthy and diseased
animals)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
C$,D$
place, period - A$,B$
production input indicator -
I$ input indicator measure units - U$
monetary units - M$
price of one measure unit of
input indicator - P
average production input in
indicator measure units per one animal
in the given population - F
per one diseased animal - A
per one healthy animal - B
average total number of
animals of the given population - G
RESULT:
Estimated benefit due to minor
inputs in production by healthy animals = (A-F)*G
U$ of I$ of value
= (A-F)*G*P M$
Estimated loss due to major
inputs in production by diseased animals = (F-B)*G
U$ of I$ of value
= (F-B)*G*P M$
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 1) losses according to animal diseases
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,PE$
types of losses, measure
units - LO$,MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data, values in
measure units:
I: disease, losses value -
D$(I), L(I)
T = sum of L(I)
L O S S E S D U E T O A
N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N D I S E A S E S
Disease(s) L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
MU$
D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 2) losses according to animal species
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
types of losses, measure
units - LO$,MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data, values in
measure units:
I: species, losses value -
D$(I), L(I)
T = sum of L(I)
L O S S E S D U E T O A
N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N D I S
E A S E S
Species L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
MU$
D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 3) losses according to place
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,PE$
types of losses, measure
units - LO$,MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data, values in
measure units:
I: place, losses value -
D$(I), L(I)
T = sum of L(I)
L O S S E S D U E T O A
N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N D I S E A S E S
Place L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
MU$
D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T
1.0000 100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 4) losses according to time
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,PE$
types of losses, measure
units - LO$,MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data, values in
measure units:
I: subperiod, losses value -
D$(I), L(I)
T = sum of L(I)
L O S S E S D U E T O A
N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N D I S E A S E S
Subperiod L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
MU$
D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
6.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF LOSSES
DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASES
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 5) losses according to their types
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, period - PL$,PE$
types of losses, measure
units - LO$,MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data, values in
measure units:
I: loss type, loss value -
D$(I), L(I)
T = sum of L(I)
L O S S E S D U E T O A
N I M A L P O P U L A T I O N D I S E A S E S
Loss type L o s s e s Proportion
Percentage
Value in
MU$
D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
6.9-COST OF ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH ACTIONS
INPUT DATA:
action type(s) - T$
place, period - A$,B$
monetary units - M$
veterinary material or
service - PS$
measure units of veterinary
material or service - PU$
total number of actions - A
average dose (consumption) of
the material for one action in measure
units - D
price of one measure unit of
the material - P
average time needed for one
action in minutes (including preparatory activity) - T
personnel average salary per
one hour - S
transport average cost for
one action - R
total other costs for the
given actions - O
RESULT:
Total consumption of the
used material = A*D
PU$
Total cost of used
material = A*D*P
M$
Total time consumed = A*T/60
hours
Total salaries = A*T/60*S
M$
Total transport cost = A*R
M$
Other costs = O
M$
T o t a l costs
= ((A*D*P)+(A*T/60*S)+A*R+O) M$
6.10-ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MEASURES' COSTS
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
S$,C$
place, period - L$,P$
monetary units - M$
1.total value of animals
naturally dead due to disease - A
2.total value of condemned
slaughtered animals - B
3.total value of condemned
products of animal origin - C
4.total value of lost
liveweight -
D
5.total value of non-born
animals - E
6.total value of non-produced
animal products - F
7.total value of loss due to
minor quality of animal products - G
8.total value of feeds
non-converted in animal products -
I
9.total value of loss due to
trade/export limitations - J
10.total value of
compensations and subsidies
- K
11.cost of vet. services
(diagnosis, treatment, control, etc.) -
L
12.cost of veterinary
material (vaccines, drugs, equipment, etc.)- M
13.total cost of
non-veterinary manpower and services
- N
14.total cost of transport
related to epi. measures - O
15.other total costs related
to disease(s) and epi. measures - P
Z = A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J+K+L+M+N+O+P
ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH/DISEASE MEASURES' COSTS
L o s s / C o s t T y p e
M$
Proportion Percentage
1.Naturally dead animals A
A/Z A/Z*100
2.Condemnation of carcass B B/Z B/Z*100
3.Condemnation of products C C/Z C/Z*100
4.Lost of live weight D D/Z D/Z*100
5.Non-born animals E E/Z E/Z*100
6.Non-produced products F F/Z F/Z*100
7.Reduction of products
quality G G/Z G/Z*100
8.Feeds non-converted in
products I I/Z I/Z*100
9.Trade/export limitations J J/Z J/Z*100
10.Compensation/subsidies K
K/Z K/Z*100
11.Veterinary services L L/Z L/Z*100
12.Veterinary material M M/Z M/Z*100
13.Non-vet.
manpower/services N N/Z N/Z*100
14.Transport related
measures O O/Z O/Z*100
15.Others P
P/Z P/Z*100
T o t a l L o s s Z 1.0000 100.0000
6.11-BLANC SUMMARY TABLES OF
ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE CONSEQUENCES
This subprogramme processes
different data on consequences of animal
population disease in form of summary table and graph:
1) total values of individual consequences
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
S$,C$
place, period - L$,P$
measure units - M$
Data/lines to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List data - consequence type,
total value:
I: A$(I),
A(I)
A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O
N D I S E A S E C O N S E Q U E N C E S
Z = sum of A(I)
Consequence T y p e Value in Proportion Percentage
M$
I A$(I) A(I)
A(I)/Z
A(I)/Z*100
T o t a l Z
1.0000
100.0000
6.11-BLANC SUMMARY TABLES OF
ANIMAL POPULATION DISEASE CONSEQUENCES
This subprogramme processes
different data on consequences of animal
population disease in form of summary table and graph:
2) individual consequences based on average values
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - E$
species, category(ies) -
S$,C$
place, period - L$,P$
measure units - M$
Data/lines to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List data - consequence type,
units name, number of units, average
value in measure units:
I: A$(I),U$(I), NU(I),AV(I)
A N I M A L P O P U L A T I O
N D I S E A S E C O N S E Q U E N C E S
Z = Z sum of (NU(I)*AV(I))
Consequence type Units
Number One unit Total
Percentage
Name of Value in Loss
in
Units M$
M$
A$(I) U$(I)
NU(I)
AV(I) NU(I)*AV(I) ((NU(I)*AV(I))/Z)*100
T o t a l Z 100.0000
7-INVESTIGATIONS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
SITUATION
1-Evaluation of diagnostic method
quality
2-Indicators of animal population
investigation grade
3-Proportions of different types of
diagnostic tests
4-Infectious disease evidence and
notification grades
5-Positivity and negativity of test
results
6-Agreement between test results of
two investigators
7-Concordance grade of compared tests'
results
8-Summary table of animal disease
investigations
9-Summary table of animal disease
investigation results
10-Population/sample multi-etiological
investigations
11-Testing parasitic diseases extensity and
intensity
12-Testing infection intensity grading
in animals
13-Comparison of two tests acc.
specificity/sensitivity
14-Relationship of positively and
negatively tested animals
7.1-EVALUATION OF DIAGNOSTIC
METHOD QUALITY
INPUT DATA:
diagnostic method - MD$
species - SP$ category(ies) - CA$
place - P$ time - T$
number of true positive
results - A
number of false
positive results - B
number of false
negative results - C
number of true negative
results - D
RESULT:
Sensitivity (detectability) of
diagnostic method = A/(A+C) =
A/(A+C)*100 %
Specificity of diagnostic
method =
D/(D+B) = D/(D+B)*100 %
Predictive value of true
positive results =
A/(A+B) = A/(A+B)*100 %
Predictive value of true
negative results =
D/(D+C) = D/(D+C)*100 %
Predictive value of false
positive results =
B/(A+B) = B/(A+B)*100 %
Predictive value of false
negative results =
C/(C+D) = C/(C+D)*100 %
Diagnostic method true results
rate (accuracy) = (A+D)/(A+B+C+D)
Diagnostic method false results
rate (inaccuracy) = (B+C)/(A+B+C+D)
Diagnostic method efficiency
index =
(A/(A+C))*(D/(D+B))
7.2-INDICATORS OF ANIMAL
POPULATION INVESTIGATION GRADE
INPUT DATA:
investigation objectives -
diagnostic test - MD$
v a l u e of diagnostic method efficiency index (in form of a number between >0 and 1
!) - D
species - SP$ category(ies) - CA$
place - LU$ time - TI$
total number of animals of
the given population - A
total number of tested
animals - B
total number of tests
(investigations) - C
number of specifically
diseased animals - E
number of animals in specific
disease foci - F
number of exposed
specifically healthy animals outside of
foci - S
number of newly discovered
cases (diseased animals) - N
RESULT:
Tested animals rate =
B/A
Percentage of tested
animals =
(B/A)*100
Ratio of tested/diseased
animals = B/E
Ratio of diseased/tested
animals = E/B
Ratio of
tested/intrafocal animals = B/F
Ratio of tested/exposed
healthy animals =
B/(S+F-E)
Ratio of
tests/population = C/A
Ratio of
tests/investigated animals (retesting
rate) = C/B
Ratio of tests/newly
discovered cases =
C/N
Animal population
investigation grade =
(B/A)*D
7.3-PROPORTIONS OF DIFFERENT
TYPES OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS
INPUT DATA:
testing object/objective - O$
place - PL$ time - TI$
number of diagnostic test
types - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: test, number of investigations - M$(I),
X(I)
T = sum of X(I)
RESULT:
Test Number of Proportion
Percentage
investigations
M$(I) X(I) X(I)/T X(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
7.4-INFECTIOUS DISEASE
EVIDENCE AND NOTIFICATION GRADES
This programme calculates
evidence/notification of 1) specifically infected animals
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
total number of specifically
infected animals - A
number of clinically
recognized infected animals - B
number of microbiologically
recognized infected animals - C
number of serologically
recognized infected animals - D
number of allergically
recognized infected animals - E
number of haematologically
recognized infected animals - G
number of pathologically
recognized infected animals - H
number of infected animals
recognized by other method(s) - I
number of notified infected
animals - F
RESULT:
Specifically infected animals
evidence/notification rates:
Clinical evidence
rate =
B/A
Microbiological
evidence rate = C/A
Serological evidence
rate =
D/A
Allergic evidence
rate =
E/A
Haematological evidence rate =
G/A
Pathological evidence
rate =
H/A
Other method evidence
rate =
I/A
Specific disease
notification rate = F/A
7.4-INFECTIOUS DISEASE
EVIDENCE AND NOTIFICATION GRADES
This programme calculates
evidence/notification of 2) outbreaks (foci) of specific disease
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
total number of specific
disease(s) outbreaks (foci) - A
number of clinically
recognized outbreaks - B
number of microbiologically
recognized outbreaks - C
number of serologically
recognized outbreaks - D
number of allergically
recognized outbreaks - E
number of haematologically
recognized outbreaks - G
number of pathologically
recognized outbreaks - H
number of outbreaks
recognized by other method(s) - I
number of notified specific
outbreaks - F
RESULT:
Specific disease outbreaks
evidence/notification rates:
Clinical evidence
rate =
B/A
Microbiological
evidence rate = C/A
Serological evidence
rate =
D/A
Allergic evidence
rate =
E/A
Haematological
evidence rate = G/A
Pathological evidence
rate =
H/A
Other method evidence rate =
I/A
Specific disease outbreaks
notification rate = F/A
7.5-POSITIVITY AND NEGATIVITY
OF INVESTIGATIONS RESULTS
INPUT DATA:
investigation test - EX$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
number of tested
animals - A
number of tested animals
with positive result - B
number of tested animals
with indeterminate result - C
number of tested animals with
negative result - D
number of tests
(investigations) - E
number of positive
tests - F
number of indeterminate
tests - G
number of negative
tests - H
number of animals found
healthy - I
number of animals found
indeterminate - J
number of animals found
diseased - K
RESULT:
Positively tested
animals rate =
B/A
Indeterminately tested
animals rate = C/A
Indeterminately tested
animals rate = (A-B-D)/A
Negatively tested
animals rate = D/A
Negatively tested
animals rate =
(A-B-C)/A
Positive tests rate =
F/E
Indeterminate tests
rate = G/E
Indeterminate tests rate
=
(E-F-H)/E
Negative tests rate = H/E
Negative tests rate =
(E-F-G)/E
Rate of tested animals
found healthy = I/A
Rate of tested animals
found healthy = (A-J-K)/A
Rate of tested animals
found indeterminate = J/A
Rate of tested animals
found diseased = K/A
Rate of tested animals
found diseased = (A-I-J)/A
7.6-AGREEMENT BETWEEN TEST
RESULTS OF TWO INVESTIGATORS (Ref.:Martin
et al., p.73-75)
(comparison of results
obtained in the same animals or in the
same samples by two investigators - A and B)
INPUT DATA:
objectives of investigation -
OI$
test type - EX$
animals/specimens - AN$
place, time - LU$,TI$
investigators A,B - IA$,IB$
number of identical
negative results by A and B -
N11
number of results: dubious by A and
negative by B - N12
number of results: positive
by A and negative by B - N13
number of results: negative
by A and dubious by B - N21
number of identical dubious
results by A and B - N22
number of results: positive
by A and dubious by B - N23
number of results: negative
by A and positive by B - N31
number of results: dubious
y A and positive by B - N32
number of identical
positive results by A and by B -
N33
N = N11+N12+N13+N21+N22+N23+N31+N32+N33
N01=N11+N21+N31
N02=N12+N22+N32
N03=N13+N23+N33
N10=N11+N12+N13
N20=N21+N22+N23
N30=N31+N32+N33
PC=((N10*N01)+(N20*N02)+(N30*N03))/N^2
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
RESULT:
Grade of agreement between
test results of the two investigators
=
K=(PO-PC)/(1-PC)
Intra-groupal correlation coefficient
- kappa = K
OPA=(N11+N33)/N
AP1=(N33+N31)/N
AP2=(N33+N13)/N
CPA=(AP1*AP2)+((1-AP2)*(1-AP1))
Chance proportion agreement
(both +) = AP1*AP2
Chance proportion agreement
(both -) = (1-AP2)*(1-AP1)
Chance proportion
agreement = CPA
Observed minus chance
agreement = OPA-CPA
Maximum possible agreement
beyond chance level = (1-CPA)
7.7-CONCORDANCE OF COMPARED TESTS
RESULTS (Ref.:
Martin et al.,p.73-75)
(comparison of results
obtained in the same animals or in the same samples using two different tests -
A and B)
INPUT DATA:
investigation type - IN$
animals/specimens - SP$
place, time - PL$,TI$
test A,B - MA$,MB$
number of identical
negative results by A and B -
N11
number of results: dubious
by A and negative by B - N12
number of results: positive
by A and negative by B - N13
number of results: negative
by A and dubious by B - N21
number of identical dubious
results by A and B - N22
number of results: positive
by A and dubious by B - N23
number of results: negative
by A and positive by B - N31
number of results: dubious
y A and positive by B - N32
number of identical
positive results by A and by B -
N33
N=N11+N12+N13+N21+N22+N23+N31+N32+N33
C=(N11+N22+N33)
N01=N11+N21+N31
N02=N12+N22+N32
N03=N13+N23+N33
N10=N11+N12+N13
N20=N21+N22+N23
N30=N31+N32+N33
PC=((N10*N01)+(N20*N02)+(N30*N03))/N^2
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
RESULT:
Concordance grade of results
obtained by two different tests = C/N
=
C/N*100 %
K=(PO-PC)/(1-PC)
Intragroupal correlation
coefficient - kappa = K
OPA=(N11+N33)/N
AP1=(N33+N31)/N
AP2=(N33+N13)/N
CPA=(AP1*AP2)+((1-AP2)*(1-AP1))
Chance proportion agreement
(both +) = AP1*AP2
Chance proportion agreement
(both -) = (1-AP2)*(1-AP1)
Chance proportion
agreement = CPA
Observed minus chance
agreement = OPA-CPA
Maximum possible agreement
beyond chance level = (1-CPA)
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 1) investigations according to diseases
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: disease, number of investigations -
D$(I), L(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
Disease Investigations Proportion Percentage
I D$(I) L(I)
L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T
1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 2) investigations according to
species/category(ies)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: species/categ., number of investigations - D$(I), L(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
Species/category(ies) Investigations Proportion Percentage
I D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T
1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 3) investigations according to space/territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: subterritory, number of investigations -
D$(I), L(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
Subterritory Investigations Proportion Percentage
I D$(I) L(I)
L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T
1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 4) investigations according to time series
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I:
subperiod, number of investigations - D$(I), L(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
Subperiod Investigations Proportion Percentage
I D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T
L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
7.8-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 5) investigations according to their types
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be
processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: test type, number of investigations -
D$(I), L(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE INVESTIGATIONS
Test type Investigations Proportion Percentage
I D$(I) L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T
1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 1) investigation results according to
diseases/forms
INPUT DATA:
diseases' group - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I:
disease/form - D$(I)
number of
investigations, positive results - L(I),P(I)
T = sum of L(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
Disease Investi- Positive
% of Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results Pos.Results
I D$(I) L(I)
P(I)
P(I)/L(I)*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l T TP
TP/T*100
100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 2) investigation results according to
species/category(ies)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
species/category(ies) - D$(I)
number of
investigations, positive results - L(I),P(I)
T = sum of L(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
Species/category(ies) Investi-
Positive % of Pos.
% of Total
gations Results
Results
Pos.Results
I D$(I) L(I)
P(I)
P(I)/L(I)*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l T
TP
TP/T*100
100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 3) investigation results according to
space/territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
subterritory - D$(I)
number of
investigations, positive results - L(I),P(I)
T = sum of L(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
Subterritory Investi- Positive
% of Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results Pos.Results
I D$(I)
L(I) P(I) P(I)/L(I)*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l T TP
TP/T*100
100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates summary tables
of: 4) investigation results according to time series
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
subperiod - D$(I)
number of
investigations, positive results - L(I),P(I)
T = sum of L(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
Subperiod Investi- Positive % of
Pos. % of Total
gations Results
Results
Pos.Results
I D$(I)
L(I) P(I)
P(I)/L(I)*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l T
TP
TP/T*100 100.0000
7.9-SUMMARY TABLES OF ANIMAL
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 5) investigation results according to tests
used
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
test type - D$(I)
number of
investigations, positive results - L(I),P(I)
T = sum of L(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
ANIMAL POPULATION
DISEASE INVESTIGATION RESULTS
Test type Investi- Positive
% of Pos. % of Total
gations
Results Results
Pos.Results
I D$(I) L(I)
P(I)
P(I)/L(I)*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l T
TP
TP/T*100
100.0000
7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A
GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 1) field
investigations results of a given population (herd, flock)
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
criterion for positivity -
MU$
total number of investigated
animals/specimens - NU
How many diseases - data to
be processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
disease, positive results - D$(I),
P(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF
A GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
Disease(s) Number of % of
% of
Total
Positive Positive Positive
Results Results
Results
I D$(I) P(I) P(I)/NU*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l TP 100.0000
7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A
GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 2) laboratory investigations results of a
given set of specimens
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
specimen, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
criterion for positivity -
MU$
total number of investigated animals/specimens - NU
How many diseases - data to
be processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
disease, positive results - D$(I),
P(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A GIVEN
POPULATION/SAMPLE
Disease(s) Number of % of
% of Total
Positive Positive
Positive
Results
Results Results
I D$(I) P(I) P(I)/NU*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l TP 100.0000
7.10-SUMMARY TABLES OF
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF A
GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables on: 3) slaughterhouse investigations results of a given animal group
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of investigations - LO$
criterion for positivity -
MU$
total number of investigated
animals/specimens - NU
How many diseases - data to
be processed - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
disease, positive results - D$(I),
P(I)
TP = sum of P(I)
MULTI-ETIOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF
A GIVEN POPULATION/SAMPLE
Disease(s) Number of % of
% of Total
Positive Positive
Positive
Results Results
Results
I D$(I) P(I) P(I)/NU*100 P(I)/TP*100
T o t a l TP 100.0000´
7.11-TESTING PARASITIC
DISEASES EXTENSITY AND INTENSITY
This subprogramme calculates the extensity (proportion of animals with
specific parasites) and intensity (average number of parasites in affected
animals).
INPUT DATA:
parasitosis - PA$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - PL$,TI$
specimen, test type - SA$,TY$
number of subpopulations (groups)
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: subpopulation
name, number of tested, positive
animals, average of parasites :
I: NA$(I),
IN(I),
T = sum of (AV(I)*
IN = sum of IN(I)
RESULT:
Subpopu- Number of Number of
EXTEN- INTENSITY
Total
Proportion
lation Tested
Animals
SITY Average Number of of
Total
Animals with
Propor-
of Parasites
Number of
Parasites tion
Parasites Parasites
NA$(I) IN(I)
T O T A L IN PO
PO/IN
T/PO T 1.0000
8-SELECTED SAMPLING METHODS FOR POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS
1-Random numbers for selection of
representative animals/herds
2-Sample size for detecting presence of
a disease in a population
3-Sample size for estimating prevalence
in large population
4-Sample size for estimating prevalence
using confidence interval
5-Sample size for estimating prevalence using
absolute difference
6-Sample size for estimating prevalence
in finite population
7-Sample size for detecting difference
between two prevalences
8-Sample size for estimating mean of
population health phenomena - I.
9-Sample size for estimating mean of
population health phenomena - II.
10-Sample size for detecting difference
between two means
11-Stratified sampling for population
health investigations
12-Estimating prevalence from simple and
cluster random samples
13-Probability of failure to detect
diseased animals
Note: These sampling methods do not consider the sensitivity of the
tests. Its
value lower than 1 requires higher number of at random selected sampling
units.
8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR
SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS
This subprogramme calculates
random numbers for selection of: 1) representative animals for health/disease
investigations
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
number of animals to be
selected using random numbers - N
range of random numbers
(1-?) - R
RESULT: (used a special RND command for generating random numbers)
(FOR X=1 TO N)
Random numbers of
animals: (RND(1)*R)+1
8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR
SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS
This subprogramme calculates
random numbers for selection of: 2) representative groups of animals and
other units for cluster sampling (samples of herds = cluster samples of
animals, samples of areas = cluster
samples of herds/farms, etc.)
INPUT DATA:
groups of units for cluster
sampling - H$
sampling element measure
units - E$
number of sampling units to
be selected using random numbers - N
range of random numbers
(1-?) - R
RESULT: (used a special RND command for generating random numbers)
(FOR X=1 TO N)
Random numbers of E$:
(RND(1)*R)+1
8.1-RANDOM NUMBERS FOR
SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ANIMALS/HERDS
This subprogramme calculates
random numbers for selection of: 3) representative units (areas, villages,
ranches, farms or herds/flocks, animals)
for multistage sampling
INPUT DATA:
how many stages for
multistage sampling - ST
FOR I=1 TO ST
how many random
numbers, range (1-?) -
N(I),R(I)
RESULT: (used a special RND command for generating random numbers)
(FOR X=1 TO N(I))
I S T
A G E: STU$(I)
Random
numbers: (RND(1)*R(I))+1
8.2-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
THE PRESENCE OF A DISEASE IN A POPULATION (Ref.:
Cannon,Roe)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a proportion, i.e. a number between
>0 and <1 !)
Do you know total number of animals of the population, yes(y) or no(n) ? y
total number of animals of
the population - N
what is your best estimate of
the prevalence rate of diseased animals
in the given population - P
how certain must you be that
at least one case of the given disease
is detected - confidence level (0.9, 0.95, 0.99,etc.) - A
RESULT:
D=N*P
Z=1/D
X=(1-(1-A)^Z)
Y=N-(D/2)
T=X*Y+1
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for detecting the presence of a given disease = T
8.2-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
THE PRESENCE OF A DISEASE IN A POPULATION (Ref.: Cannon,Roe)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a proportion, i.e. a number between
>0 and <1 !)
Do you know total number of animals of the population, yes(y) or no(n) ? n
what is your best estimate of
the prevalence rate of diseased animals in the given population - P
how certain must you be that
at least one case of the given disease
is detected - confidence level (0.9, 0.95, 0.99,etc.) - A
RESULT:
T=LOG(1-A)/LOG(1-P)
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for detecting the presence of a given disease = T
8.3-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN LARGE POPULATIONS
(Ref.:
Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution - using
standard error of estimated prevalence rate)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
have you(y) or not(n) any a
priori idea about the prevalence rate ? y
what is your best estimate of
the prevalence rate - P
upper limit of standard error
of estimated prevalence rate (maximum difference between the true prevalence
rate and your sample prevalence rate that you can tolerate) - D
RESULT:
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for estimating disease prevalence rate = ((P*(1-P))/(D^2)
8.3-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN LARGE POPULATIONS
(Ref.:
Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution - using
standard error of estimated prevalence rate)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
upper limit of standard error
of estimated prevalence rate (maximum
difference between the true prevalence rate and your sample prevalence rate
that you can tolerate) - D
RESULT:
Minimal sample size (number of
representative animals selected randomly)
required for estimating disease prevalence rate = (1/(4*D^2)
8.4-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution in an
infinite population)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
have you(y) or not(n) any a
priori idea about the prevalence rate ?
y
enter your best estimate of the
prevalence rate (supposed proportion of diseased animals in the given
population) ! - P
value of confidence interval
for prevalence rate (proportion) -
L
critical value of the
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58
for 1%; etc.) - Y
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = ((4*(Y^2)*P*(1-P))/(L^2)
8.4-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (Ref.:
Jenicek,Cleroux)
(binomial distribution in an
infinite population)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
value of confidence interval
for prevalence rate (proportion) -
L
critical value of the
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% of
error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) - Y
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = (Y^2)/(L^2)
8.5-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE (Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
between estimated and true
prevalence rate (binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
have you(y) or not(n) a priori
idea about the prevalence rate ? y
enter your best estimate of the
prevalence rate (supposed proportion of
diseased animals in the given population) !
- P
tolerated difference between true
and sample prevalence rates (level of
precision required - tolerated error) -
C
how certain must you be that
the difference between the true and
sample prevalence rate is < C i.e
what is the critical value of the confidence coefficient
(1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for
5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) - Y
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = ((Y^2)*P*(1-P))/(C^2)
8.5-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE USING ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE
(Ref.: Jenicek,Cleroux)
between estimated and true prevalence
rate (binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
have you(y) or not(n) a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
tolerated difference between
true and sample prevalence rates (level
of precision required - tolerated error)
- C
how certain must you be that
the difference between the true and
sample prevalence rate is < C i.e
what is the critical value of the confidence coefficient
(1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for
5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) - Y
RESULT:
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = (Y^2)/(4*(C^2))
8.6-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN FINITE POPULATION (Ref.:
Cannon,Roe)
(binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a proportion, i.e. a number between
>0 and <1 !):
total number of animals of a
given population - N
have you(y) or not(n) any a
priori idea about the prevalence rate ?
y
estimated prevalence rate - P
critical value of the confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%;
2.58 for 1%; etc.) - Y
tolerated difference between
estimated and true prevalence rates
(level of precision required - tolerated error) - C
RESULT:
A=((Y^2)*P*(1-P))/(C^2)
B=1/A+1/N
E=(Y^2)/(4*(C^2))
D=1/E+1/N
Minimal sample size
required for estimating disease
prevalence rate = (1/B)+1
8.6-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
DISEASE PREVALENCE IN FINITE POPULATION
(Ref.:
Cannon,Roe)
(binomial distribution)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a proportion, i.e. a number between
>0 and <1 !):
total number of animals of a
given population - N
have you(y) or not(n) any a priori idea about the
prevalence rate ? n
critical value of the confidence coefficient (1.65 for 10% error probability; 1.96 for 5%;
2.58 for 1%; etc.) - Y
tolerated difference between
estimated and true prevalence rates
(level of precision required - tolerated error) - C
RESULT:
E=(Y^2)/(4*(C^2))
D=1/E+1/N
Minimal sample size required for estimating disease prevalence rate = (1/D)+1
8.7-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO PREVALENCE RATES (Ref.:
Putt et al.)
(in large populations)
INPUT DATA: (prevalence rate as a
proportion, i.e. a number between >0 and <1 !):
estimated disease prevalence
rate of the first population - P1
estimated disease prevalence
rate of the second population - P2
critical value corresponding to
statistical significance level required
('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58
for 1%; etc.) - C1
critical value corresponding to
the chance we are willing to accept of
failing to detect a difference of this type ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for 10% of
error probability;
1.64 for 5%; 2.33
for 1%; etc.) - C2
RESULT:
P=(P1+P2)/2
A=2*P*(1-P)
B=P1*(1-P1)+P2*(1-P2)
C=(P2-P1)^2
D=C1*SQR(A)
E=C2*SQR(B)
T=((D+E)^2)/C
For detecting the difference
between two disease prevalence rates
minimal sample size of each population
= T animals
i.e.
total sample = T*2
animals
8.8-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA – I ´
(Ref.: Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size in large (infinite) population
using: 1) standard deviation of the distribution in population, sampling error and critical value of confidence coefficient
INPUT DATA:
estimated standard (average)
deviation of the population mean - B
required precision - tolerated
sampling error - deviation of the sample
mean in a b s o l u t e term
- D
reliability - critical value of
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 90%
confidence level; 1.96 for 95%; 2.58 for 99%; etc.) - Z
RESULT:
T=((Z*B)^2/D^2)
Minimal sample size
required for estimating population
mean =
T
8.8-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA – I (Ref.: Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates
sample size in large (infinite) population using: 2) coefficient
of variation (dispersion), tolerated deviation of sample mean and critical value of confidence
coefficient
INPUT DATA:
coefficient of variation - C
allowable deviation of sample
mean (in terms of p r o p o r t i o n of
average) - D
reliability - critical value of
confidence coefficient (1.65 for 90%
confidence level; 1.96 for 95%; 2.58 for 99%; etc.) - Z
RESULT:
T=(Z*C)^2/D^2
Minimal sample size
required for estimating population
mean =
T
8.9-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA – II (Ref.: Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size using absolute difference
between sample and true mean, confidence coefficient and sample standard
deviation 1) when population size is known
INPUT DATA:
total number of animals of the
given population - N
maximal tolerated absolute
difference between the sample mean and
the true mean - C
maximum tolerated sample standard deviation - B
critical value of confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%;etc.) -
Y
RESULT:
T=(N*Y^2*B^2)/(N*C^2+Y^2*B^2)
Minimal sample size required
for estimating the population mean = T
8.9-SAMPLE SIZE FOR ESTIMATING
MEAN OF EPI. PHENOMENA – II (Ref.:
Yamane Taro)
This subprogramme calculates sample size using absolute difference
between sample and true mean, confidence coefficient and sample standard
deviation 2) when population size is unknown
INPUT DATA:
maximal tolerated absolute
difference between the sample mean and
the true mean - C
maximum tolerated sample standard deviation - B
critical value of confidence
coefficient (1.65 for 10% of error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%;etc.) - Y
RESULT:
T=((Y^2)*(B^2))/C^2
Minimal sample size required
for estimating the population mean = T
8.10-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO MEANS (Ref.: Kubankova, Hendl)
This subprogramme calculates sample size for detecting difference between
two means (if the size and variance of both populations are the same): 1) between
two independent samples (populations)
INPUT DATA:
means difference - precision in
relative term (>0 - <1 !) -
D
critical value corresponding to
statistical significance level
required: ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28
for 10% of error probability; 1.64 for 5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.) or
('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) - U1
critical value corresponding to
the chance we are willing to accept of
failing to detect a difference of this type ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for
10% of error probability; 1.64 for
5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.) or ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of
error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) - U2
population variance (square of
standard deviation) - SIG
RESULT:
A=(U1+U2)^2
B=SIG/D^2
For detecting the difference
between two populations means minimal
sample size of each population =
2*A*B) animals
i.e.
total sample size = 2*2*A*B animals
8.10-SAMPLE SIZE FOR DETECTING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO MEANS (Ref.:
Kubankova, Hendl)
This subprogramme calculates
sample size for detecting difference between two means (if the size and
variance of both populations are the same):
2) between two dependent samples
(populations)
INPUT DATA:
means difference - precision in
relative term (>0 - <1 !) -
D
critical value corresponding to
statistical significance level
required: ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28
for 10% of error probability; 1.64 for
5%; 2.33 for 1%; etc.) or ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of error
probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for 1%; etc.) - U1
critical value corresponding to
the chance we are willing to accept of failing to detect a difference of this
type ('one-sided' hypothesis: 1.28 for
10% of error probability; 1.64 for 5%;
2.33 for 1%; etc.) or ('two-sided' hypothesis: 1.65 for 10% of
error probability; 1.96 for 5%; 2.58 for
1%; etc.) -
U2
population variance (square of
standard deviation) - SIG
RESULT:
A=(U1+U2)^2
B=SIG/D^2
For detecting the difference between two populations means minimal sample size of each population = A*B
animals
i.e.
total sample size = 2*A*B animals
8.11-STRATIFIED SAMPLING FOR
POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS
INPUT DATA:
investigation - INV$
place, time - PL$,TI$
Do you know sample size in absolute n u m b e r of representative animals (a) or sample
size p e r c e n t a g e of a given population (p) ? a
sample size - number of
animals (to be selected randomly)
representing a given population
- N
number of subpopulations
(strata) - S
FOR I=1 TO S
List of data: I: subpopulation, number of animals -
Y$(I), X(I)
X = sum of X(I)
RESULT:
Subpopulation Number
of animals Proportion
Percentage
(stratum) ----------------------------
total sampled
I Y$(I) X(I) (N*X(I)/X X(I)/X
(X(I)/X)*100
T o t a l X N 1.0000
100.0000
8.11-STRATIFIED SAMPLING FOR
POPULATION HEALTH INVESTIGATIONS
INPUT DATA:
investigation - INV$
place, time - PL$,TI$
Do you know sample size in absolute
n u m b e r of representative animals
(a) or sample size p e r c e n t a g e of a
given population (p) ? p
percentage of representative
animals to be investigated - PE
sample size - number of
animals (to be selected randomly)
representing a given population
- N
number of subpopulations
(strata) - S
FOR I=1 TO S
List of data: I: subpopulation, number of animals -
Y$(I), X(I)
X = sum of X(I)
RESULT:
Subpopulation Number
of animals Proportion
Percentage
(stratum) ------------------------------
total
sampled
I Y$(I) X(I)
((X(I)*PE)/100 X(I)/X (X(I)/X)*100
T o t a l X X*PE/100 1.0000
100.0000
8.12-ESTIMATING DISEASE
PREVALENCE FROM SIMPLE AND CLUSTER RANDOM SAMPLES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates the prevalence estimation from: 1) simple
random sample
INPUT DATA:
disease/form - D$
species, category(ies) -
S$,C$
type of prevalence - TP$
place, time - P$,T$
random sample size -
number of selected animals - NM
sampling fraction in form of
a proportion (number between >0 and <1 !)
of selected animals from the
total population - F
number of diseased animals in
the sample - E
RESULT:
P=E/NM
A=(1-F)*P*(1-P)/NM
ES=SQR(A)
Prevalence of diseased animals
in the sample = P
= P*100 %
Standard error of the sample
prevalence = ES
= ES*100 %
Estimated true prevalence in
total population at:
B=(P-1.64*ES)*100
C=(P+1.64*ES)*100
90% confidence interval lies
between B % and C %
D=(P-1.96*ES)*100
G=(P+1.96*ES)*100
95% confidence interval lies
between D % and G %
H=(P-2.58*ES)*100
I=(P+2.58*ES)*100
99% confidence interval lies
between H % and I %
( The 95 % confidence
limit =
P*100 +- (1.96*ES)*100 % )
8.12-ESTIMATING DISEASE
PREVALENCE FROM SIMPLE AND CLUSTER RANDOM SAMPLES
(Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates the prevalence estimation 2) cluster
random sample
INPUT DATA:
disease - D$
species, category(ies) -
S$,C$
place, time - P$,T$
definition of clusters
(groups, herds, flocks, farms, etc.) - CL$
total number of clusters - T
number of clusters randomly
selected - M
FOR I=1 TO M
List of data: number of animals: total, diseased in
cluster I H(I),J(I)
E = sum of J(I) N =
sum of H(I)
P=E/N R=P^2
F=M/T H = sum of H(I)^2
HC = sum of (H(I)*J(I)) J =
sum of J(I)^2
Y=R*H Z=2*P*HC
W=Y-Z+J
S=((1-F)*W)/(M*(M-1))
Q=SQR(S)
RESULT:
Total number of animals
in selected clusters = N
Number of diseased
animals in selected clusters = E
Prevalence of diseased
animals in the sample = E/N
= E/N*100 %
ES=M/N*Q
Standard error of sample
prevalence = ES
= ES*100 %
Estimated true prevalence in
total population at:
B=(E/N-1.64*ES)*100
K=(E/N+1.64*ES)*100
90 % confidence interval lies
between B % and K
%
L=(E/N-1.96*ES)*100
O=(E/N+1.96*ES)*100
95 % confidence interval lies
between L % and O
%
V=(E/N-2.58*ES)*100
Z=(E/N+2.58*ES)*100
99 % confidence interval lies
between V % and Z
%
( The 95 % confidence
limit =
E/N*100 +- (1.96*ES)*100 % )
8.13-PROBABILITY OF FAILURE TO
DETECT DISEASED ANIMALS
( Ref.: Cannon,
Roe; adapted by author)
This subprogramme calculates probability of failure to detect diseased
animals from an 'i n f i n i t e' population with the specific proportion of
positives.
INPUT DATA:
test sensitivity grade (in form of a proportion) = S
prevalence rate of positives (in form of a proportion) = P
number of samples = N
RESULT:
Probability of failure to detect diseased animals
a) without considering
the test sensitivity = (1-P)^N
b) after the correction
by test sensitivity = ((1-P)^N)/S
IF (((1-P)^)/S)>1 THEN (((1-P)^N/S) = 1.0000
9-SELECTED ASPECTS OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMMES
1-Selection of priority diseases for
animal health programmes
2-Simple model of morbidity/nidality
changes' prognosis
3-Planning/prognosis of morbidity
reduction (in linear form)
4-Planning/prognosis of morbidity
reduction (in curve form)
5-Planning/prognosis of animal
population specific health recovery
6-Animal population health/disease mass
actions (incl. vaccinations)
7-'Critical path' method in animal
population health planning
8-Distribution of animal population
health programme inputs
9-Animal population health programme/measures'
coverage
10-Planning/prognosis of reducing of
nidality, mortality and losses
11-Planning/prognosis of expanding
specific disease free territory
9.1-SELECTION OF PRIORITY
DISEASES FOR ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMMES
Assessment of eligibility according disease importance, solution
feasibility and inputs availability in a given territory and period after analyzing
all substantial factors influencing the strategy/measures practicability and
probability of success of time-bounded programmes.
INPUT DATA:
place, time - LU$,TI$
Number of diseases in
consideration - N
The scales consist of g r a d e
s from 0 to 10 (in form of integers only) !
FOR I=1 TO N
disease No. I :
name : N$(I)
grades of biological, economic,
public health, social importance - B(I),G(I),Z(I),S(I)
grades of technical (solution)
feasibility, inputs availability -
F(I),D(I)
Values of importance
multiplier coefficients are fixed as follows:
biological = 2
economic = 4 public health = 4 social = 2
IGB=2 IGE=4
IGZ=4
IGS=2
Do you can accept these
values or you will use other ones:
new values of importance multiplier
coefficients:
biological - IGB
economic - IGE public health - IGZ social
- IGS
RESULT:
Disease(s) I m p o r t a n
c e Grades Grades of RESULTS
----------------------------------------- ------------------
biol. eco. public social
feasi- input
T O T A L
health bility avai- points
-------------------------------------- labi-
Multiplier *IGB *IGE
*IGZ *IGS lity
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N$(I) +B(I)
+G(I) +Z(I) +S(I)
*F(I) *D(I) RES(I)
FOR I=1 TO N
SU(I)=B(I)*IGB+G(I)*IGE+Z(I)*IGZ+S(I)*IGS
RES(I)=SU(I)*F(I)*D(I)
Disease(s) Proportion Percentage
of the total T
allocated points
N$(I) RES(I)/T RES(I)/T*100
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
N o t e: Local priorities should
be complemented by national, event. international, priorities and reverse.
9.2-SIMPLE MODEL OF
MORBIDITY/NIDALITY CHANGES' PROGNOSIS
This programme calculates
morbidity changes' prognosis based on: 1) supposed
absolute numbers of diseased animals (initial, new, extinct)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
place - LU$ period - PE$
species - ES$ category(ies) - CA$
number of diseased animals at
the beginning - AI
number of planned
subperiods - N
List of data:
FOR I=1 TO N
I : subperiod - SU$(I) supposed new, extinct diseased animals -
IN(I),EX(I)
RESULT:
Supposed Future Numbers of Specifically Diseased
Animals
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subperiod New Extinct FINAL
IN = sum of IN(I)
EX = sum of EX(I)
I
SU$(I) IN(I) EX(I) AI+IN-EX
9.2-SIMPLE MODEL OF
MORBIDITY/NIDALITY CHANGES' PROGNOSIS
This programme calculates morbidity
changes' prognosis based on: 2) supposed
relative numbers of morbidity rates - initial point prevalence, incidence, extinction rates (rates as
proportions ,i.e. >0 - 1 !)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
place - LU$ period - PE$
species - ES$ category(ies) - CA$
initial point prevalence rate
- AI
number of planned
subperiods - N
List of data:
FOR I=1 TO N
I : subperiod - SU$(I) supposed incidence, extinction rates -
IN(I),EX(I)
RESULT:
Supposed Future
Diseased Animal Morbidity
Rates
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subperiod Incidence Extinction Final
Rate
Rate Prevalence
Rate
IN = sum of IN(I)
EX = sum of EX(I)
I
SU$(I) IN(I) EX(I)
(AI+IN-EX)
9.3-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
MORBIDITY REDUCTION (IN LINEAR FORM)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
place, period - LU$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
time measure unit - UT$
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the programme - IA
r e d u c e d number of diseased animals planned for the end of the programme - F
duration of the programme in
time measure units - T
RESULT:
Difference between initial
and final number of diseased animals
= IA-F
R=(IA-F)/T
Average number of diseased to
be reduced during one UT$ =
R i.e. average percentage of initial number =
R/IA*100 %
average percentage
of the difference between initial and
final numbers = R/(IA-F)*100 %
Calculation of partial data:
Do you want the number of
diseased animals after a given period
(p) or the time with a given number
of diseased animals (a) ? p
number of time measure units
of a given partial period - P
Number of diseased animals reduced during
the first P time units = P*R i.e. there should be still a rest of
circa (IA-P*R) diseased animals.
Calculation of partial data: Do
you want the number of diseased animals after a given period (p) or the time with a given number of diseased
animals (a) ? a
partially reduced number of
diseased animals - N
A=((IA-N)/(IA-F))*T
Number of time units for the reduction to N
diseased animals = A i.e. there is still a rest of T-A
time units for achieving the goal.
ANIMAL M O R B I D I T Y R E D U C T I O N (IN
LINEAR FORM)
Initial number of
diseased animals: IA
End of Supposed Percentage
Number of
of Initial
Diseased Total
Animals Number
FOR I= 1 TO T
S = sum of R
W=(IA-S)
I W (W/IA)*100
9.4-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF MORBIDITY
REDUCTION (IN CURVE FORM)
(decrease of diseased animals number in regular curve form)
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - EN$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place - LU$ period - PE$
time measure unit - UT$
number of diseased animals at
the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d number of diseased animals planned for the end of the programme - MIN
planned p e r i o d
for objective achievement (in
time measure units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units)
- S
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
D=57.2958 - coefficient for
conversion of radians in grades
V=2*MM
B=360/V
Time Supposed number of Percentage
End of UT$
diseased animals of Initial
Value
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I (A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN) (A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
9.5-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION SPECIFIC HEALTH RECOVERY
(increase of healthy animals' number)
This programme calculates the
plans for health recovery - objectives
in terms of numbers of specific disease(s) free animals 1) in
a linear form
INPUT DATA:
specific health - SE$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period, time measure
unit - LU$,PE$,UT$
number of healthy
animals at the beginning of the
programme - MIN
i n c r e a s e d number of healthy animals planned for the end of the programme - MAX
planned p e r i o d
for objective achievement (in
time measure units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
D=57.2958 coefficient of
conversion of radians in grades
V=2*MM
B=360/V
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number of Percentage
End of UT$ Healthy Animals of Final Number
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
U = sum of (MAX-MIN)/(MM/S)
I (MIN+U) ((MIN+U)/MAX)*100
9.5-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
ANIMAL POPULATION SPECIFIC HEALTH RECOVERY
(increase of healthy animals' number)
This programme calculates the
plans for health recovery - objectives
in terms of numbers of specific disease(s) free animals 2) in
a curve form
INPUT DATA:
specific health - SE$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period, time measure
unit - LU$,PE$,UT$
number of healthy
animals at the beginning of the
programme - MIN
i n c r e a s e d number of healthy animals planned for the
end of the programme - MAX
planned p e r i o d
for objective achievement (in
time measure units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
D=57.2958 coefficient of
conversion of radians in grades
V=2*MM
B=360/V
RESULT:
Time Supposed Number of Percentage
End of UT$ Healthy Animals of Final Number
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I
(A*SIN((I*B-90)/D)+A+MIN)
((A*SIN((I*B-90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 1) actions according
to diseases
INPUT DATA:
place (territory), period - PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of animal health actions
- LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
disease, number of actions - D$(I),L(I)
RESULT:
Disease Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of
total number of actions
I D$(I) L(I)
L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 2) actions according to species
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place (territory), period -
PL$,PE$
type of animal health actions
- LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
species, number of actions - D$(I),L(I)
RESULT:
Species Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
I D$(I)
L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 3) actions according
to space/territory
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place (territory), period -
PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of animal health actions
- LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data:
I: subterritory, number of actions -
D$(I),L(I)
RESULT:
Subterritory Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
I D$(I)
L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000 100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 4) actions according to time series
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place (territory), period -
PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
type of animal health actions
- LO$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
subperiod, number of actions - D$(I),L(I)
RESULT:
Subperiod Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions
of total number of actions
I D$(I)
L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: 5) actions according to their types
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
place (territory), period -
PL$,PE$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
measure units - MU$
How many data to be processed
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
action type, number of actions - D$(I),L(I)
RESULT:
Action type Number of Proportion Percentage
Actions of total number of actions
I D$(I)
L(I) L(I)/T L(I)/T*100
T o t a l T 1.0000
100.0000
T = sum of L(I)
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: relative indicators'
values related to 6) mass vaccinations
INPUT DATA:
type of specific vaccination
- AP$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
number of animals of the
given population - A
number of specifically
diseased animals - B
number of animals in specific
foci - C
number of animals in
threatened zones - D
number of vaccinated
animals - E
number of vaccinations in the
given period - F
grade of vaccine immunization
effect (>0 - 1) - VV
RESULT:
Proportion of vaccinated
animals in the given population = E/A
i.e. in percentage = E/A*100
Ratio of vaccinated/diseased
animals = E/B
Ratio of
vaccinated/intrafocal animals
= E/C
Ratio of vaccinated/threatened
zones animals = E/D
Ratio of
vaccinated/intrafocal+threat. zones animals
= E/(C+D)
Grade of vaccination
repetitions in the given period
= F/E
Grade of supposed population
postvaccination immunity = E/A*VV
Do you want to estimate the grade of population immunity after certain
time in relation to regular
population replacement, yes(y) or
no(n) ? y
INPUT DATA:
number of vaccinated animals
at the beginning of the evaluated
period - AEP
regular continuing replacement period in
days - RRP
period between the initial
and evaluation moments in days (must be
shorter than the regular replacement period !) – PEV
R=AEP*(1-(PEV/RRP))
RESULT:
At the moment of evaluation about R
animals still remain from the
initial number of AEP vaccinated animals. If we take into consideration VV grade of supposed postvaccination immunity, then we could estimate R*VV
specifically immune animals representing about (R*VV)/AEP)*100 % of initially vaccinated animals.
9.6-ANIMAL POPULATION
HEALTH/DISEASE MASS ACTIONS (INCL.VACCINATIONS)
This subprogramme calculates
summary tables of: relative indicators'
values related to 7) mass treatments
INPUT DATA:
specific animal health
actions - AP$
species, category(ies) - ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
number of animals of the
given population - A
number of specifically
diseased animal s - B
number of animals in specific
foci - C
number of animals in
threatened zones - D
number of treated
animals - E
number of treatment actions
in a given period - F
RESULT:
Proportion of treated
animals
= E/A i.e. in percentage = E/A*100
Ratio of treated/diseased
animals = E/B
Ratio of treated/intrafocal animals = E/C
Ratio of treated/threatened
zones animals = E/D
Ratio of
treated/intrafocal+threat. zones animals
= E/(C+D)
Grade of treatment
repetitions during the given period
= F/E
9.7-'CRITICAL PATH' METHOD IN
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PLANNING (Ref.: Lon Poole -
adapted by author)
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
place - LU$ period - PE$
time measure units - UT$
monetary units - UM$
how many activities does the network (or planning table) contain
- N
FOR I=1 TO N
Key data in following order for each activity: initial node number, end node number (must be
major than initial node number !),
duration (in time units), cost
activity No I:
A(I,1),A(I,2),E(I,1),E(I,2)
S(A(I,2))>=S(A(I,1))+E(I,1)
F(A(N,2))=S(A(N,2))
IF F(A(I,1))=0 THEN F(A(I,1))=F(A(I,2))-E(I,1)
IF F(A(I,1))>F(A(I,2))-E(I,1) THEN F(A(I,1))=F(A(I,2))-E(I,1)
'CRITICAL PATH' METHOD IN
ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PLANNING
Activi- N o
d e T i m e u n i t
Duration Path Costs
ty Initial End
Start
FOR I=1 TO N
I A(I,1)
A(I,2) S(A(I,1)) F(A(I,2)) E(I,1) S1=F(A(I,2))-S(A(I,1))-E(I,1) E(I,2)
S1=0 critical
S1>0 with time reserve
L = sum of E(I,1)
C1 = sum of E(I,2)
Duration of critical
path =
Total costs = C1 UM$
9.8-DISTRIBUTION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME INPUTS
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
place, time - LU$,TI$
input type, input measure
units - IN$,MU$
criterion for input
distribution - CID$
total quantity of the input
units for distribution - S2
number of parts among which
the input to be divided - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data : part I:
name, number of animals
NA$(I),W(I)
S1 = sum of W(I)
R=((S2*W(I)/S1)*10^(R1)/10^(R1)
S3 = sum of R
S4=S2-S3
P=((10000*W(I)/S1)/100)
P1 = sum of P
RESULT:
D i s t
r i b u t i o n shares
Part Number of Percentage Absolute value
animals of total
in input units
FOR I=1 TO N-1
I NA$(I) W(I) P
R
N NA$(N) W(N) 100-P1
S4
T o t a l S1
100.00 S2
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates
the programme/measures' coverage
(control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 1) animal
population
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
epi. risk (disease) - ER$
epi. measures - ME$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
total number of animals - A
number of animals at epi.
risk - AR
number of animals under epi.
measures - E
number of animals in specific
disease foci - J
number of treated
animals - B
number of diseased
animals - C
number of treated diseased
animals - D
RESULT:
Proportion of animals at
epi. risk = AR/A
Proportion of animals
under epi. measures = E/A
Ratio of animals at epi.
risk / under measures = AR/E
Ratio of animals under
epi. measures / at risk = E/AR
Proportion of treated
animals = B/A
Proportion of treated from
diseased animals = D/C
Ratio of animals under measures /
intrafocal = E/J
Ratio of animals
intrafocal / under measures
= J/E
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates
the programme/measures' coverage
(control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 2) herds/farms
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
epi. risk (disease) - ER$
epi. measures - ME$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
total number of herds
(farms) - H
number of herds (farms) at
epi. risk - HR
number of herds (farms) under
epi. measures - I
RESULT:
Proportion of herds at
epi. risk = HR/H
Proportion of herds under epi.
measures = I/H
Ratio of herds at epi.
risk / under measures = HR/I
Ratio of herds under epi.
measures / at risk = I/HR
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAGE
This subprogramme calculates
the programme/measures' coverage
(control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 3) territory
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
epi. risk (disease) - ER$
epi. measures - ME$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
surface measure units - SMU$
total evaluated territory (in
surface units) - F
territory at epi. risk (in
surface units) - FR
territory under epi. measures
(in surface units) - G
RESULT:
Proportion of territory at
epi. risk = FR/F
Proportion of territory
under epi. measures = G/F
Ratio territory at epi.
risk / under measures = FR/G
Ratio territory under epi.
measures / at risk = G/FR
9.9-ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH
PROGRAMME/MEASURES' COVERAG
This subprogramme calculates
the programme/measures' coverage
(control, investigation, vaccination, treatment, etc.) of: 4) time
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
epi. risk (disease) - ER$
epi. measures - ME$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
place, time - LU$,TI$
total evaluated period (in
time units) - TP
duration of epi. measures (in
time units) - EP
RESULT:
Proportion of time period
under epi. measures = EP/TP
Ratio time period
with/without epi. measures = EP/(TP-EP)
Ratio time period
without/with epi. measures = (TP-EP)/EP
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and other losses due to
diseases 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan the
reduction of the of nidality (f), mortality
(m) or losses (l) ? f
type of nidality
(focality) - TF$
time measure unit - UT$
number of foci at the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d number of foci planned for the end of the programme - MIN
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF N
I D A L I T Y R E D U C T I O N
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$
of foci of
Initial Number
(start) MAX
100.0000
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
U = sum of (MAX-MIN)/(MM/S)
I MAX-U ((MAX-U)/MAX)*100
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and other losses due to
diseases 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan the
reduction of the of nidality (f), mortality (m) or losses (l) ? m
type of mortality - TM$
time measure unit - UT$
number of deaths at the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d number of deaths planned for the end of the programme - MIN
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF M
O R T A L I T Y R E D U C T I O N
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$
of deaths of Initial Number
(start) MAX
100.0000
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
U = sum of (MAX-MIN)/(MM/S)
I MAX-U ((MAX-U)/MAX)*100
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and other losses due to
diseases 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan the
reduction of the of nidality (f), mortality (m) or losses (l) ? l
type of losses, losses
measure units - TL$,LMU$
time measure unit - UT$
number of losses in LMU$
at the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d losses in LMU$ planned for the end of the programme - MIN
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF L O
S S E S' R E D U C T I O N
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$
of losses of Initial Number
(start) MAX
100.0000
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
U = sum of (MAX-MIN)/(MM/S)
I MAX-U ((MAX-U)/MAX)*100
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and other losses due to
diseases 2) in curve form
Enter choice number: 2
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan the
reduction of the of nidality (f), mortality (m) or losses (l) ? f
type of nidality
(focality) - TF$
time measure unit - UT$
number of foci at the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d number of foci planned for the end of the programme - MIN
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
V=2*MM B=360/V
D=57.2958 coefficient for
conversion of radians in grades
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF N
I D A L I T Y R E D U C T I O N
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$
of foci of Initial Number
(start) MAX
100.0000
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I ((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN) ((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and other losses due to
diseases 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan the
reduction of the of nidality (f), mortality (m) or losses (l) ? m
type of mortality - TM$
time measure unit - UT$
number of deaths at the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d number of deaths planned for the end of the
programme - MIN
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
V=2*MM B=360/V
D=57.2958 coefficient for
conversion of radians in grades
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF M
O R T A L I T Y R E D U C T I O N
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$
of deaths of Initial
Number
(start) MAX 100.0000
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I ((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN) ((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
9.10-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
REDUCING NIDALITY, MORTALITY AND LOSSES
This programme calculates plans eventually prognosis for reduction of
specific disease nidality (foci number), mortality and other losses due to
diseases 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
disease(s) - DI$
species, category(ies) -
ES$,CA$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan the
reduction of the of nidality (f),
mortality (m) or losses (l) ?
l
type of losses, losses
measure units - TL$,LMU$
time measure unit - UT$
number of losses in LMU$ at the beginning of the programme - MAX
r e d u c e d losses in LMU$ planned for the end of the programme - MIN
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
V=2*MM B=360/V
D=57.2958 coefficient for
conversion of radians in grades
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF L
O S S E S' R E D U C T I O N
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$
of losses of Initial Number
(start) MAX 100.0000
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I ((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN) ((A*SIN((I*B+90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY
This programme calculates the plans/prognosis for specific disease free
territory expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches,
etc.) 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
specific health - SE$
species - ES$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan in terms
of H$ - territory surface (t), herds
(h), farms (f), ranches (r), districts
(d), regions (g) or zones (z) ? t
type of territory - TM$
territory surface measure
units - TMU$
number of disease free H$ at
the beginning - MIN
increased number of disease
free H$ planned for the end - MAX
time measure unit -
UT$
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
IF S=0 THEN S=1
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE
FREE TERRITORY
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$ of
Disease Free of Final Number
H$
(start) MIN
(MIN/MAX)*100
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
U = sum of (MAX-MIN)/(MM/S)
I MIN+U ((MIN+U)/MAX)*100
9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY
This programme calculates the plans/prognosis for specific disease free territory
expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches, etc.) 1) in linear form
INPUT DATA:
specific health - SE$
species - ES$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan in terms
of H$ - territory surface (t), herds (h), farms (f), ranches (r), districts (d), regions
(g) or zones (z) ? h
type of herds - TH$
number of disease free H$ at
the beginning - MIN
increased number of disease
free H$ planned for the end - MAX
time measure unit - UT$
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
IF S=0 THEN S=1
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE
FREE TERRITORY
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$ of Disease Free of
Final Number
H$
(start) MIN (MIN/MAX)*100
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
U = sum of (MAX-MIN)/(MM/S)
I MIN+U ((MIN+U)/MAX)*100
9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY
This programme calculates the plans/prognosis for specific disease free territory
expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches, etc.) 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
specific health - SE$
species - ES$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan in terms
of H$ - territory surface (t), herds (h),
farms (f), ranches (r),
districts (d), regions (g) or zones (z)
? f
type of farms - TF$
number of disease free H$ at
the beginning - MIN
increased number of disease
free H$ planned for the end - MAX
time measure unit -
UT$
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
V=2*MM B=360/V
D=57.2958 coefficient of
conversion of radians in grades
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
IF S=0 THEN S=1
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE
FREE TERRITORY
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$ of Disease Free of Final Number
H$
(start) MIN (MIN/MAX)*100
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I ((A*SIN((I*B-90)/D)+A+MIN) ((A*SIN((I*B-90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
9.11-PLANNING/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE FREE TERRITORY
This programme calculates the plans/prognosis for specific disease free territory
expanding (in territory surface units, herds, farms, ranches, etc.) 2) in curve form
INPUT DATA:
specific health - SE$
species - ES$
place, period - LU$,PE$
Do you want to plan in terms
of H$ - territory surface (t), herds (h),
farms (f), ranches (r), districts
(d), regions (g) or zones (z) ? d
type of districts - TR$
number of disease free H$ at
the beginning - MIN
increased number of disease
free H$ planned for the end - MAX
time measure unit -
UT$
planned period for objective
achievement (in time units) - MM
A=(MAX-MIN)/2
V=2*MM B=360/V
D=57.2958 coefficient of
conversion of radians in grades
average duration of intervals
(subperiods) for partial data
calculation (in time measure units) - S
IF S=0 THEN S=1
PLAN/PROGNOSIS OF
EXPANDING SPECIFIC DISEASE
FREE TERRITORY
Time Supposed Number Percentage
End of UT$ of Disease Free of Final Number
H$
(start)
MIN
(MIN/MAX)*100
FOR I=1 TO MM STEP S
I
((A*SIN((I*B-90)/D)+A+MIN) ((A*SIN((I*B-90)/D)+A+MIN)/MAX)*100
10-COST
AND EFFICIENCY OF ANIMAL POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMMES
1-Simple indicators of economic
benefit/cost analysis
2-Simple absolute economic benefit of
animal health programme
3-Biological cost/effectiveness of
animal health programme
4-Public health cost/effectiveness of
animal health programme
5-Production cost/effectiveness of
animal health programme
6-Effectiveness of prophylactic
measures and recovery rates
7-Final situation in populations with
and without programme
8-Consumption and cost of vaccines,
drugs and other substances
9-Programme benefit/cost ratio in
discounted monetary values
10-Programme benefit/cost ratio in
cumulative monetary values
11-Economic effect after specific
animal disease eradication
12-Public health effect of specific
zoonosis eradication
13-Biological effect of specific
animal disease eradication
14-Implementation of animal population
health programme
10.1-SIMPLE INDICATORS OF
ECONOMIC BENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
INPUT DATA:
programme - PE$
place, period - LU$,TI$
monetary units - MO$
number of data in pairs - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
part name, total cost, total benefit - NA$(I),A#(I),B#(I)
B# = sum of B#(I)
A# = sum of A#(I)
RESULT:
Total cost: A#
Total benefit: B#
Simple absolute efficiency
(benefit) = B#-A#
MO$
Benefit/cost ratio (relative
efficiency) =
B#/A# = 1 :
A#/B#
Cost/benefit ratio =
A#/B# = 1 :
B#/A#
10.2-SIMPLE ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC
BENEFIT OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable only when the situation has been improved.
INPUT DATA:
programme - PE$
place, period - LU$,TI$
number of subperiods - N
indicator - IN$
measure units - UM$
The calculation, is it based
on health benefit (positive) data
(p) or on losses (negative) data (n) ?
p
values of benefit of
population health in pair :
initial (m i n o r) - C
final (m a j o r) - D
E C O N O M I C B E N E F I T OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Health increase benefit due to the programme =
D-C UM$ i.e. average per subperiod = (D-C)/N
UM$
Values:
Initial: C
UM$ Final: D UM$
Subperiod Supposed Percentage
Value
of Maximum
UM$
Value
(start) C (C/D)*100
FOR I=1 TO N
S = sum of (D-C)/N
I (D-(D-S)+C ((D-(D-S))+C)/D*100
10.2-SIMPLE ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC
BENEFIT OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable only when the situation has been improved.
INPUT DATA:
programme - PE$
place, period - LU$,TI$
number of subperiods - N
indicator - IN$
measure units - UM$
The calculation, is it based
on health benefit (positive) data (p) or
on losses (negative) data (n) ? n
values of losses caused by
morbidity in pair :
initial (m a
j o r) - D
final (m i n o r) - C
RESULT:
Disease losses reduction
benefit due to the programme = D-C
UM$ i.e. average per subperiod =
(D-C)/N UM$
Subperiod Supposed Percentage
Value of Maximum
UM$ Value
(start) C
(C/D)*100
FOR I=1 TO N
S = sum of (D-C)/N
I (D-(D-S)+C ((D-(D-S))+C)/D*100
10.3-BIOLOGICAL
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in: animal population size/structure, health,
morbidity, mortality, nidality, vectors/reservoirs occurrence, other disease
sources, etiological agents and their transmission, ecological conditions, etc.
Applicable only when the situation has been improved.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place, period - A$,B$
biological phenomenon - F$
biological phenomenon measure
units - U$
input (cost) measure
units - M$
total cost (input) of the
programme - C
Is the biological phenomenon
desirable - positive (p), i.e. with
m a j o r (!!) final value
or not desirable - negative
(n), i.e. with m i n o r (!!) final value ? p
number of biological
phenomenon measure units at the
programme beginning - VI
at the programme end - VF
RESULT:
D=VF-VI
Difference between the
initial and final values of the biological phenomenon = D U$
M=C/D
Change of biological
phenomenon total value by every biological unit
costs in average M M$
N=D/C
Theoretically, for every
input unit total value of the biological
phenomenon can be changed in average by N U$
10.3-BIOLOGICAL
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in: animal population size/structure, health,
morbidity, mortality, nidality, vectors/reservoirs occurrence, other disease
sources, etiological agents and their transmission, ecological conditions, etc. Applicable only when the situation has been
improved.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place, period - A$,B$
biological phenomenon - F$
biological phenomenon measure
units - U$
input (cost) measure
units - M$
total cost (input) of the
programme - C
Is the biological phenomenon
desirable - positive (p), i.e. with m a
j o r (!!) final value or not desirable - negative (n), i.e. with m i n o r (!!) final value ? n
number of biological
phenomenon measure units
at the programme beginning - VI
at the programme end - VF
RESULT:
D=VF-VI
Difference between the
initial and final values of the biological phenomenon = D U$
M=C/D
Change of biological
phenomenon total value by every biological unit
costs in average M M$
N=D/C
Theoretically, for every
input unit total value of the biological
phenomenon can be changed in average by N U$
10.4-PUBLIC HEALTH
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in human
population in terms: of zoonoses' risk grade, zoonoses' incidence, prevalence,
mortality, invalidity, etc. Applicable
only when the situation has been improved.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place, period - A$,B$
public health phenomenon - F$
public health phenomenon
measure units - U$
input (cost) units - M$
total input (cost) of the
programme - C
Is the public health
phenomenon desirable - positive (p), i.e. with
m a j o r (!!) final value or not desirable - negative (n), i.e. with m i n o r
(!!) final value ? p
number of public health
phenomenon measure units at the
programme beginning - VI
at the programme end - VF
RESULT:
D=VF-VI
Difference between the
initial and final values of the public
health phenomenon = D U$.
M=C/D
Change of public health
phenomenon total value by every public health unit costs in average M M$.
N=D/C
Theoretically, for every
input (cost) unit total value of the
public health phenomenon can be changed in average by N
public health units.
10.4-PUBLIC HEALTH
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Desirable changes in human
population in terms: of zoonoses' risk grade, zoonoses' incidence, prevalence,
mortality, invalidity, etc. Applicable
only when the situation has been improved.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place, period - A$,B$
public health phenomenon - F$
public health phenomenon
measure units - U$
input (cost) units - M$
total input (cost) of the
programme - C
Is the public health
phenomenon desirable - positive (p),
i.e. with m a j o r (!!)
final value or not desirable - negative (n), i.e. with
m i n o r (!!) final value ? n
number of public health
phenomenon measure units at the
programme beginning - VI
at the programme end - VF
RESULT:
D=VF-VI
Difference between the
initial and final values of the public
health phenomenon = D U$.
M=C/D
Change of public health
phenomenon total value by every public health unit costs in average M M$.
N=D/C
Theoretically, for every
input (cost) unit total value of the
public health phenomenon can be changed in average by N
public health units.
10.5-PRODUCTION
COST/EFFECTIVENESS OF ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Applicable only when the situation has been improved, i.e. for total
value i n c r e a s e of animal products
(live animals, meat, milk, eggs, etc.).
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place, period - A$,B$
animal product - F$
animal product measure units
- U$
monetary units - M$
total cost of the programme
in monetary units - C#
quantity of animal product
measure units at the programme beginning - VI
at the programme end - VF
quality as p r i c e
(adjusted for inflation) of one
animal product measure unit at the programme beginning - QI
at the programme end - QF
RESULT:
D=VF-VI
Difference between the
initial and final quantity of F$ = D U$
M=C#/D
Increase of the quantity
of F$ by one U$ costs in average M M$
N=D/C#
For every one M$ input the quantity of F$
increases in average by N U$
DV=VF*QF-VI*QI
Difference between the
initial and final monetary value of F$ =
DV M$
M=C#/DV
Increase of the monetary
value of F$ by one M$ costs in average
M M$
N=DV/C#
For every one M$ input the
monetary value of F$ increases in average by N M$
10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF
PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES
This subprogramme calculates:
1) effectiveness of prophylactic
measures
INPUT DATA:
prophylactic measures - TT$
place, time - LU$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data ? a
number of animals at risk
prophylactically treated - AR
number of animals at risk
prophylactically non-treated - APN
number of diseased among
prophylactically treated animals at
risk - TR
number of diseased among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
risk - NTR
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at specific risk (in %) - T
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
direct risk (in %) - TD
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
indirect risk (in %) - TI
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
specific risk (in %) - NT
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
direct risk (in %) - NTD
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
indirect risk (in %) - NTI
RESULT:
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at risk = (NT-T)/NT*100 %
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at direct
risk = (NTD-TD)/NTD*100 %
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at indirect
risk = (NTI-TI)/NTI*100 %
10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF
PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES
This subprogramme calculates:
1) effectiveness of prophylactic
measures
INPUT DATA:
prophylactic measures - TT$
place, time - LU$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
Do you have absolute (a) or relative (r) data ? r
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at specific risk (in %) - T
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
direct risk (in %) - TD
incidence rate among
prophylactically treated animals at
indirect risk (in %) - TI
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
specific risk (in %) - NT
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at direct risk (in %) - NTD
incidence rate among
prophylactically non-treated animals at
indirect risk (in %) - NTI
RESULT:
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at risk = (NT-T)/NT*100 %
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at direct
risk = (NTD-TD)/NTD*100 %
Prophylactic measures
effectiveness among animals at indirect
risk = (NTI-TI)/NTI*100 %
10.6-EFFECTIVENESS OF PROPHYLACTIC
MEASURES AND RECOVERY RATES
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) disease recovery rates in treated and non-treated animals
INPUT DATA:
recovery measures - RM$
place, time - LU$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
Recovery rates' calculation is applicable when positive difference between treated and non-treated animals is expected and all numeric input
data (major than >0) are available !
number of specifically
diseased animals - SDA
number of specifically
diseased animals under recovery measures
(curative treatment) - RM
number of all recovered
animals from a disease - RA
number of treated animals
recovered from a disease - RTA
RESULT:
Proportion of treated
diseased animals =
RM/SDA
Recovery rate of all diseased
animals = RA/SDA
Recovery rate of treated
diseased animals = RTA/RM
Recovery rate of non-treated
diseased animals = (RA-RTA)/(SDA-RM)
Ratio of treated/non treated
animals' recovery rates = (RTA/RM)/((RA-RTA)/(SDA-RM)) : 1
10.7-COMPARISON OF FINAL
SITUATION IN POPULATIONS WITH AND WITHOUT PROGRAMME
Programme of reduction of disease(s) morbidity, mortality or nidality if
o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s are the
s a m e ! Applicable only for cases
when the programme i m p r o v e s the situation in comparison with w o r s e n
i n g situation without programme (due
to disease spreading) !
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
species, category(ies) -
E$,CA$
place, period- L$,T$
epi. phenomenon (indicator) -
EPI$
phenomenon measure units - U$
monetary units - M$
value of average loss by one
unit of the phenomenon - CU
i n i t i a l number of epi. phenomenon units in the compared populations (the s a m e
in both) - VI
f i n a l (reduced) number of epi. phenomenon units in
population w i t h programme - VFP
f i n a l (increased) number of epi. phenomenon units
in population w i t h o u t programme
- VFS
total cost of the
programme -
C
DP=VI-VFP
DS=VFS-VI
RESULT:
Reduction of EPI$ in
population w i t h the programme = DP U$ i.e. benefit = (DP*CU) M$, while in the
population w i t h o u t programme
the epi. situation becomes worse by DS U$ of value of DS*CU M$
Programme benefit/cost
ratio = DP*CU/C or
1 : 1/(DP*CU/C)
Programme cost/benefit
ratio = C/(DP*CU) or
1 : 1/(C/(DP*CU))
The reduction of the losses by
one phenomenon measure unit costs in average C/DP M$ .
Theoretically, if this average
is applied upon the population (of the same
size and situation) w i t h o u t
programme to reach a similar result
in the future under the same or similar conditions, the late
programme may cost about
((VFS-VFP)*(C/DP)) M$ (not considering inflation), i.e. ((VFS-VFP)*(C/DP))-C M$ more.
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme calculates:
- consumption and cost according to the
coverage (quantity) need of: 1) vaccines
or drugs
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) - PU$
place, time - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
name of substance - NA$
substance measure units - U$
monetary units - MU$
price of one substance
unit - SU
average dosis in substance
measure units - D
number of individual applications - N
RESULT:
Average dosis price = D*SU MU$
Total consumption of NA$
= N*D U$
Total cost = (N*D)*SU MU$
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme
calculates: - consumption and cost according to the coverage (quantity) need of: 2) solutions for disinfection or
disinfestation
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) - PU$
place, time - PL$,TI$
name of substance - NA$
substance measure units - U$
monetary units - MU$
price of one substance
unit - SU
average substance
concentration (%) in the solution - AC
surface measure units - SMU$
average of the solution per
one surface unit in liters - AAS
total surface for the
application of the solution - TSA
RESULT:
NE=AAS*AC/100
TN=NE*TSA
Consumption of NA$ per one surface unit = NE
U$
Total consumption of = TN U$
Cost per one surface unit =
NE*SU MU$
Total cost = TN*SU MU$
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme
calculates: - quantity according to available financial input for: 3) vaccines or drugs
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) - PU$
place, time - PL$,TI$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
name of substance - NA$
substance measure units - U$
monetary units - MU$
price of one substance
unit - SU
average dosis in substance
measure units - D
available financial
input - FI
RESULT:
Average dosis price = D*SU MU$
Available financial
input is for (FI/(D*SU) doses.
10.8-CONSUMPTION AND COST OF
VACCINES, DRUGS AND OTHER SUBSTANCES
This subprogramme calculates:
quantity according to available
financial input for: 4) disinfection or
disinfestation solutions
INPUT DATA:
purpose (programme) - PU$
place, time - PL$,TI$
name of substance - NA$ substance measure units - U$
monetary units - MU$
price of one substance
unit - SU
average substance
concentration (%) in the solution - AC
surface measure units - SMU$
average of the solution per
one surface unit in liters - AAS
available financial
input - FI
RESULT:
NE=AAS*AC/100
Available financial input
is for (FI/(NE*SU) SMU$.
10.9-PROGRAMME BENEFIT/COST
RATIO IN DISCOUNTED MONETARY VALUES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
For the phenomena measured in
monetary units. Discounted = present value.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place, period - LU$,TI$
duration of subperiod (year,
month, etc.) - SP$
number of subperiods to be
evaluated - N
monetary units - UM$
discount rate (in decimal
fraction, i.e. >0-<1) - DE
Key in pairs monetary values
(adjusted for inflation) of benefit, cost:
FOR I=1 TO N
subperiod I :
B(I),C(I)
U=1/(1+DE)
BE = sum of B(I)
CO = sum of C(I)
S = sum of B(I)/(1+DE)^I
T = sum of C(I)/(1+DE)^I
RESULT:
SP$ Benefit
Cost
Discount D
i s c o u n t e d
UM$ UM$ factor benefit cost
ben.- cost
1 B(1)
C(1)
U (B(1)/(1+DE)) (C(1)/(1+DE)) ((B(1)/(1+DE))-(C(1)/(1+DE)))
FOR I=2 TO N
I B(I) C(I)
1/((1+DE)^I) (B(I)/(1+DE)^I) (C(I)/(1+DE)^I) ((B(I)/(1+DE)^I))-(C(I)/(1+DE)^I)
Present
Total BE CO values S
T
S-T
10.10-PROGRAMME BENEFIT/COST
RATIO IN CUMULATIVE MONETARY VALUES
Applicable for the phenomena measurable in monetary units. B e n e f i t
of a specific disease eradication c o n
t i n u e s after the end of the
programme and inputs, thanks also to reproduction process, avoiding previous
negative consequences during the next periods and generations.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place - LU$
eradication period - TI$
post-eradication period - PP$
duration of subperiod (year,
month, etc.) - SP$
number of subperiods to be
evaluated - N
monetary units - UM$
Key in pairs the values
(adjusted for inflation) of benefit, cost:
FOR I=1 TO N
subperiod I :
B(I),C(I)
BE = sum of B(I)
CO = sum of C(I)
RESULT:
SP$ Benefit Cost
Ben/Cost Cumul.Ben. Cumul.Cost
Cum.B/C
FOR I=1 TO N
I B(I)
C(I)
B(I)/C(I)
BE
CO
BE/CO
Ratio of total cumulative
benefit / total cumulative cost = BE/CO
= 1 : CO/BE
Ratio of total cumulative cost /
total cumulative benefit = CO/BE
= 1 : BE/CO
Difference between total
cumulative benefit and total cumulative
cost = BE-CO
UM$
10.11-ECONOMIC EFFECT A F T E R
SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
This subprogramme calculates economic effect after the eradication of a
disease when the inputs stop, while the
b e n e f i t of disease free
status c o n t i n u e s (avoiding the initial losses) during next periods and
animal generations (thanks to health reproduction), i.e. m u l t i p l y i n g effect. After-eradication saved value = loss
value at programme beginning. (For final
evaluation pre-eradication benefit is to be added to the result.)
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place - LU$
period of eradication
programme - PP$
post-eradication period - TI$
duration of subperiod (year,
month, etc.) - SP$
monetary units - UM$
loss due to disease at
programme beginning - LO
total cost of the programme - TC
number of post-eradication
subperiods to be evaluated - N
discount rate (>0-<1)
of programme cost - DR#
ECONOMIC EFFECT A F T E R SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
P o s t - Benefit -
Cumulative Ratio
Ratio cumul.
eradication value saved benefit - cumulative benefit/
in value saved in benefit/ /discounted
SP$ UM$
UM$ /total cost total cost
FOR I=1 TO N
I LO
LO*I
(LO*I)/TC ((LO*I)/((TC/(1+DR#)^(I)))
Do you want to calculate cumulative benefit combining eradication
programme period and post-eradication period, yes(y) or no(n) ? Yes
INPUT: cumulative benefit
value at eradication programme end = CV
ECONOMIC EFFECT OF SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION (including eradication programme and
post-eradication periods)
P o s t - Value saved
Total cumulative Ratio
Ratio cumul.
eradication value saved from cumulative benefit/
in programme beginning benefit/ /discounted
SP$ UM$
UM$ /total cost
total cost
FOR I=1 TO N
I LO
(LO*I)+CV ((LO*I)+CV)/TC) (LO*I)+CV)/((TC/(1+DR#)^(I)))
10.12-PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT OF
SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION
This subprogramme calculates public health effect of eradication in
animal population of a specific infectious disease transmissible to man. 'S a v
e d' p e r s o n s from the specific zoonosis = r e d u c e d new cases in comparison with initial
incidence thanks to reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero
risk due to continuing specific disease free status.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place - LU$
period of the programme - PP$
number of years of the
programme - YP
number of post-eradication
years to be evaluated (up to 11) - N
FOR I=1 TO YP
year I : number of new specifically diseased persons -
DP(I)
New cases in human population after eradication programme end:
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (N+YP)
year I from programme beginning: number of diseased persons DP(I)
PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT D U R I N
G SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION
PROGRAMME
Number of new diseased persons during programme first year: DP(1)
Programme Number of Cumulative
Number of Cumulative
Ratio of
year new
number of of 'saved'
number new cases/
diseased
new diseased persons
of 'saved' /initial
year
persons persons persons
cases
FOR I=1 TO YP
I DP(I)
PY DP(1)-DP(I) CD
DP(I)/DP(1)
PY = sum of DP(I)
CD = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECT A F T E
R SPECIFIC ZOONOSIS ERADICATION
PROGRAMME
Number of new diseased persons during programme first year: DP(1)
Year Number of
Cumul. number
Number of Cumul. Number Ratio of
from new of new 'saved'
of 'saved' new cases/
programme diseased
diseased from persons
from /initial year
beginning persons
programme programme
cases
beginning beginning
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
I DP(I)
PY+EM
DP(1)-DP(I) E+CD
DP(I)/DP(1)
E = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
EM = sum of DP(I)
10.13-BIOLOGICAL EFFECT OF
SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
Number of animals or herds or territory 's a v e d' from the specific infectious disease =
reduced number of new cases in comparison with initial incidence, thanks to
reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero risk due to c o n t i n u i n g specific disease free status.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place - LU$
period of the programme - PP$
number of years of the programme - YP
number of post-eradication
years to be evaluated - N
Evaluation in affected animals
(a) or herds (h) or territory units (t) ? a
FOR I=1 TO YP
year I : number of new animals specifically affected - DP(I)
New cases after eradication programme end:
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
year I from programme beginning: number of affected
animals DP(I)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT D U R I N
G SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
PROGRAMME
Number of new affected animals during programme first year: DP(1)
Programme Number
of Cumulative Number of
Cumulative
Ratio of
year new
number of of 'saved' number
new cases/
affected affected animals of 'saved' /initial
year
animals
animals animals cases
FOR I=1 TO YP
I DP(I) PY
DP(1)-DP(I) CD DP(I)/DP(1)
PY = sum of DP(I)
CD = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT A F T E R SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Number of new affected animals during programme first year: DP(1)
Year Number of
Cumul. number
Number
Cumul. number Ratio of
from new
of new of 'saved'
of 'saved' new cases/
programme affected
affected from
animals from /initial year
beginning animals programme programme
cases
beginning beginning
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
I DP(I)
PY+EM DP(1)-DP(I) E+CD
DP(I)/DP(1)
E = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
EM = sum of DP(I)
10.13-BIOLOGICAL EFFECT OF
SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
Number of animals or herds or territory 's a v e d' from the specific infectious disease =
reduced number of new cases in comparison with initial incidence, thanks to
reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero risk due to c o n t i n u i n g specific disease free status.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place - LU$
period of the programme - PP$
number of years of the
programme - YP
number of post-eradication
years to be evaluated - N
Evaluation in affected animals (a) or herds (h) or territory units (t) ? h
FOR I=1 TO YP
year I : number of new herds specifically
affected - DP(I)
New cases after eradication programme end:
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
year I from programme beginning: number of affected
herds DP(I)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT D U R I N
G SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
PROGRAMME
Number of new affected herds during programme first year: DP(1)
Programme Number of Cumulative Number of
Cumulative
Ratio of
year new number of
of 'saved'
number new cases/
affected
affected herds of 'saved' /initial year
herds
herds herds
cases
FOR I=1 TO YP
I DP(I) PY
DP(1)-DP(I) CD
DP(I)/DP(1)
PY = sum of DP(I)
CD = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT A F T E R SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Number of new affected herds during programme first year: DP(1)
Year Number of
Cumul. number
Number Cumul. Number Ratio of
from new of new of 'saved' of 'saved' new cases/
programme affected affected
from herds from /initial year
beginning herds
programme programme
cases
beginning beginning
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
I DP(I)
PY+EM
DP(1)-DP(I) E+CD
DP(I)/DP(1)
E = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
EM = sum of DP(I)
10.13-BIOLOGICAL EFFECT OF SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
=============================================================
Number of animals or herds or territory 's a v e d' from the specific infectious disease =
reduced number of new cases in comparison with initial incidence, thanks to
reduced risk during the programme and post-eradication zero risk due to c o n t i n u i n g specific disease free status.
INPUT DATA:
programme - EP$
place - LU$
period of the programme - PP$
number of years of the
programme - YP
number of post-eradication
years to be evaluated - N
Evaluation in affected animals (a) or herds (h) or territory units (t) ? t
FOR I=1 TO YP
year I : number of new territorial units specifically
affected - DP(I)
New cases after eradication programme end:
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
year I from programme beginning: number of affected
territorial units DP(I)
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT D U R I N
G SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION
PROGRAMME
Number of new affected territorial units during programme first year:
DP(1)
Programme Number of Cumulative
Number of
Cumulative
Ratio of
year new
number of of 'saved'
number new cases/
affected
affected ter.units of
'saved' /initial year
ter.units ter.units ter.units
cases
FOR I=1 TO YP
I DP(I)
PY
DP(1)-DP(I) CD DP(I)/DP(1)
PY = sum of DP(I)
CD = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
BIOLOGICAL EFFECT A F T E R SPECIFIC ANIMAL DISEASE ERADICATION PROGRAMME
Number of new affected territorial units during programme first year:
DP(1)
Year Number of
Cumul. number Number
Cumul. number Ratio of
from new of new of 'saved'
of 'saved' new cases/
programme affected affected
from ter.units
from /initial year
beginning ter.units programme programme cases
beginning beginning
FOR I=(YP+1) TO (
I DP(I)
PY+EM
DP(1)-DP(I) E+CD
DP(I)/DP(1)
E = sum of (DP(1)-DP(I))
EM = sum of DP(I)
10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
This subprogramme calculates: 1) implementation of individual programmes (in terms of indicators or activities)
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
place, period - LU$,PE$
measure units - MU$
In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals
or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones
use as - planned value: the planned d i
f f e r e n c e - real value: the
real d i f f e r e n c e between initial and final situation !!.
number of pairs of planned
and real values - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
indicator/activity, planned value, real value - IN$(I),P(I),V(I)
RESULT:
Indicator V a l u e s D i f f e r e n c e IMPLEMENTATION
planned real
absolute relative of programme
% %
IN$(I) P(I)
V(I) V(I)-P(I) Z(I)
Z(I)+100
Z(I)=((V(I)-P(I))/P(I))*100
10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
This subprogramme calculates: summary table of one implementation
indicator according to 2) space (territory)
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
indicator -
place, period - LU$,PE$
measure units - MU$
In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals
or foci or for partial increase of number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones
use as - planned value: the planned d i
f f e r e n c e - real value: the
real d i f f e r e n c e between initial and final situation !!.
number of pairs of planned
and real values - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
subterritory, planned value, real value - IN$(I),P(I),V(I)
RESULT:
V a l u e s D
i f f e r e n c e IMPLEMENTATION
Subterritory planned
real absolute relative
of programme
IN$(I) P(I)
V(I) V(I)-P(I) Z(I) %
Z(I)+100 %
T o t a l T
S S-T (S-T)/T*100 % S/T*100 %
T = sum of P(I)
S = sum of V(I)
Z(I)=((V(I)-P(I))/P(I))*100
10.14-IMPLEMENTATION OF ANIMAL
POPULATION HEALTH PROGRAMME
This subprogramme calculates: summary
table of one implementation indicator
according to 3) time series
INPUT DATA:
programme - PR$
indicator -
place, period - LU$,PE$
measure units - MU$
In case of programme for partial reduction of number of diseased animals
or foci or for partial increase of
number of healthy animals or disease free herds/zones use as - planned value:
the planned d i f f e r e n c e - real value: the real d i f f e r e n c e between initial and final situation !!.
number of pairs of planned
and real values - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data: I:
subperiod, planned value, real value - IN$(I),P(I),V(I)
RESULT:
V a l u e s D i
f f e r e n c e IMPLEMENTATION
Subperiod planned real
absolute relative of programme
IN$(I) P(I) V(I)
V(I)-P(I) Z(I)
% Z(I)+100 %
T o t a l T S
S-T
(S-T)/T*100 % S/T*100 %
T = sum of P(I)
S = sum of V(I)
Z(I)=((V(I)-P(I))/P(I))*100
11-COMPLEMENTARY SUBPROGRAMMES - I
1-Disease introduction risk assessment
applying user-defined criteria
2-Risk probability of test negative
results in infected animals
3-Risk probability that at least one
animal import unit is infected
4-Survival of diseased and vaccinated
animals acc. to replacement
5-Table of number changes of foci,
intrafocal and diseased animals
6-Point prevalence of foci and
intrafocal diseased/exposed animals
7-Table of foci and diseased animals
incidence/extinction
8-Table of slaughtered animals and
disease findings
9-Prevalence based on outbreaks, herd
size and infection duration
10-Relations between prevalence of
population and of affected herds
11-Animals/livestock units per
territory/inhabitant/veterinarian
12-Rates of spread of animal disease
outbreaks
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
This subprogramme calculates
risk probability of specific infectious disease agents' introduction into a territory
(country, region, ranch, etc.) from
abroad applying non-predefined criteria and their probability grades. The criteria of this 'b l a n c m o d e l' to be selected and formulated by
the u s e r h i m s e l f according to particular situation and needs. The criteria selection, sequence, grading and
the interpretation of the result are to
respect the logic, theoretical knowledge and practical experience and must make epizootiological
sense.
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to
process probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e
a g e n t s i n t r o d u c t i
o n r i s k (transmissibility,
susceptibility of exposed animals, inability to discover all diseased animals/herds, inability to avoid disease agents spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export
'filter', etc.) - (i) or
d e c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k
(resistance of exposed animals, ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease
agents spread, effectiveness of
pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? i
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease - DI$
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a)
or animal raw products (p) ? a
species/category - SP$
number of animals to be
imported - NA
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$
name of exporting
unit/territory - EU$
Disproportionate increasing the number of criteria = disproportionate (artificial) decreasing
calculated risk value (in spite of the same situation) !
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) - PR
How many other criteria to be
processed - CR
FOR I=1 TO CR
Key risk increasing criteria, grade
(>0-1 !):
I: criterion, grade - CR$(I), G(I)
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
I CR$(I) G(I)
G = multiple of G(I)
P=G*PR
Q=1-P; INF=SQR((P*Q)/NA)
Risk probability grade of
disease agents introduction = P +- 1.96*INF
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about NA*P
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to
process probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k
(transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability to discover all diseased animals/herds, inability to avoid disease agents spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export
'filter', etc.) - (i) or
d e c r e a s e d
i s e a s e a g e n t s i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (resistance of exposed animals,
ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease
agents spread, effectiveness of
pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? d
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease - DI$
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a)
or animal raw products (p) ? a
species/category - SP$
number of animals to be
imported - NA
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$
name of exporting
unit/territory - EU$
Disproportionate increasing the
number of criteria = disproportionate
(artificial) decreasing calculated risk value
(in spite of the same situation) !
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) - PR
How many other criteria to be
processed - CR
FOR I=1 TO CR
Key risk decreasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
I: criterion, grade - CR$(I), G(I)
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
I CR$(I) G(I)
G = multiple of (1-G(I))
P=G*PR
Q=1-P; INF=SQR((P*Q)/NA)
Risk probability grade of
disease agents introduction = P +- 1.96*INF
Estimated number of
infected animals to be probably
introduced is about NA*P
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to
process probability grades of the criteria which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k
(transmissibility, susceptibility of exposed animals, inability to discover all diseased animals/herds, inability to avoid disease agents spread, ineffectiveness of pre-export
'filter', etc.) - (i) or d e c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (resistance of exposed animals,
ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease
agents spread, effectiveness of
pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? i
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria probability must be major than 0 but not major than 1, i.e. expressed as proportions
(numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease - DI$
commodity to be introduced (imported)
- animals (a) or animal raw products (p)
? p
type of animal product - TP$
measure units - MU$
quantity of product to be
imported - QP
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$
name of exporting
unit/territory - EU$
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) - PR
How many other criteria to be
processed - CR
FOR I=1 TO CR
Key risk increasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
I: criterion, grade - CR$(I), G(I)
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
I CR$(I) G(I)
G = multiple of G(I)
P=G*PR
Q=1-P; INF=SQR((P*Q)/QP)
Risk probability grade of
disease agents introduction = P +- 1.96*INF
Estimated quantity of
infected or contaminated products to be probably imported is about QP*P MU$
11.1-DISEASE INTRODUCTION RISK
ASSESSMENT APPLYING USER-DEFINED CRITERIA
Do you want, evaluating
exporting territory situation, to process probability grades of the criteria
which:
i n c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (transmissibility, susceptibility of
exposed animals, inability to discover
all diseased animals/herds, inability to
avoid disease agents spread,
ineffectiveness of pre-export 'filter', etc.)
- (i) or d e c r e a s e d i s e a s e a g e n t s
i n t r o d u c t i o n r i s k (resistance of exposed animals,
ability to discover all diseased animals/herds, ability to avoid disease
agents spread, effectiveness of
pre-export 'filter', etc.) - (d) ? d
INPUT DATA:
Grades of selected criteria
probability must be major than 0 but not
major than 1, i.e. expressed as
proportions (numbers between >0 and 1) !
disease - DI$
commodity to be introduced
(imported) - animals (a) or animal raw products (p) ? p
type of animal product - TP$
measure units - MU$
quantity of product to be
imported - QP
name of importing
unit/territory - IC$
name of exporting
unit/territory - EU$
Situation in original e x p o r t i n g territory/population/unit:
specific disease true
occurrence grade (>0 - 1) - PR
How many other criteria to be
processed - CR
FOR I=1 TO CR
Key risk decreasing criteria,
grade (>0-1 !):
I: criterion, grade - CR$(I), G(I)
RESULT:
Order C r i t e r i o n G r a d e
I CR$(I) G(I)
G = multiple of (1-G(I))
P=G*PR
Q=1-P; INF=SQR((P*Q)/QP)
Risk probability grade of
disease agents introduction = P +- 1.96*INF
Estimated quantity of
infected or contaminated products to be
probably imported is about QP*P MU$
11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST
NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS
(Ref.:
MacDiarmid)
1) Probability that an animal
which gives negative results in disease testing is actually infected with the disease
agent
INPUT DATA:
disease - D$ species - S$
place - P$ time - T$
true prevalence rate (number
between >0 and <1 ) - P#
test specificity (number
between >0 and 1) - E#
test sensitivity (number
between >0 and 1) - S#
RESULT:
Probability that an animal
which gives negative results in disease testing is actually infected with the disease
agent = P#*(1-S#)/(P#*(1-S#)+(1-P#)*E#)
11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST
NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS
(Ref.:
MacDiarmid)
2) Probability that an animal
which gives negative results in disease
testing and is actually infected will be included in export group
INPUT DATA:
disease - D$ species - S$
place - P$ time - T$
true prevalence rate (number
between >0 and <1 ) - P#
test specificity (number
between >0 and 1) - E#
test sensitivity (number
between >0 and 1) - S#
number of animals in the
group - N
RESULT:
Probability that an animal which gives negative results in disease
testing and is actually infected with
the disease agent will be included in
the group for export =
= 1-(((1-P#)*E#)/((1-P#)*E#+P#*(1-S#)))^N
11.2-RISK PROBABILITY OF TEST
NEGATIVE RESULTS IN INFECTED ANIMALS
(Ref.: MacDiarmid)
3) Probability of a given test
failing to detect at least one
test-positive animal in an infected group
INPUT DATA:
disease - D$ species - S$
place - P$ time - T$
true prevalence rate (number
between >0 and <1 ) - P#
test sensitivity (number
between >0 and 1) - S#
number of animals in the
group - N
number of animals from the
group which are tested - T
RESULT:
Probability of a given test failing to detect at least one test-positive animal in an infected
group = (1-((T*S#)/N))^X
X=P#*N
11.3-RISK PROBABILITY THAT AT
LEAST ONE ANIMAL IMPORT UNIT OF THE COMMODITY IMPORTATION IS INFECTED (Ref.: Morley)
Note: Animal import unit = life animal or measure unit of raw product of animal origin (e.g.
specified weight of the product).
INPUT DATA:
disease - D$
animal import units
(commodity) - S$
place - P$ time - T$
disease occurrence proportion
in exporting territory (number between
>0 and <1) - CF1#
probability of the pathogen
being present at import time - CF2#
number of animal import
units - N
A=(1-(CF1#*CF2#))^N
B=1-A
RESULT:
Probability that at least one
animal import unit of the commodity
importation is infected = B
Probability that no animal
import units are infected = A
11.4-SURVIVAL OF CHRONICALLY
DISEASED AND VACCINATED ANIMALS ACCORDING TO POPULATION REPLACEMENT CYCLE
This subprogramme is applicable on groups of animals of a particular epizootiological category such as chronically
diseased, vaccinated, etc. under the
conditions that these animals are not prematurely removed and in absence of migration. Duration of
regular replacement cycle (generation or breeding or production cycles) must be longer than evaluated period
!
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
epizootiological category -
DI$
place, period - PL$,TI$
total number of animals of
the given epizootiological category at the beginning of the period - AB
duration (in days) of one
regular replacement cycle -
RC
duration (in days) between
the initial and evaluated days within
the replacement cycle - PX
RESULT:
Estimated number of animals of the given
epizootiological category existing at
the beginning of the regular replacement cycle and still remaining */ at the evaluated
day =
AB*(1-PX/RC)
*/ Note: If not eliminated
prematurely and in absence of migration.
11.5-TABLES OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates
tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s at
the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of periods of: 1) foci
INPUT DATA:
title - NA$
disease, species - DI$,SP$
place (territory), period -
PL$,TI$
measure units - MU$
Data according to individual places
(p) or subperiods (s) ? p
number of rows - N
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key row names,
values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases, at the end :
FOR I= 1 TO N
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I)
Title: NA$
Subterritory At
beginning New Extinct At the end
CO$(I) C(I)
D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
T o t a l C
D E
F
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of previous D(I)
E = sum of previous E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
11.5-TABLES OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates tables of changes considering the n u m
b e r s at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases
and at the end of periods of: 2)
intrafocal animals INPUT DATA:
title - NA$
disease, species - DI$,SP$
place (territory), period -
PL$,TI$
measure units - MU$
Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data (real or estimated) on values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of
subperiods (a) or only on initial value
and values of new and extinct cases (b) ?
a
number of rows - N
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key row names,
values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases, at the end :
FOR I= 1 TO N
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I)
Title: NA$
Subperiod At
beginning New Extinct At the end
CO$(I) C(I)
D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
S=C(1)+D-E
T o t a l C(1)
D
E
S
D = sum of previous D(I)
E = sum of previous E(I)
11.5-TABLES OF CHANGES IN
NUMBERS OF FOCI, INTRAFOCAL AND DISEASED ANIMALS
This subprogrammes creates
tables of changes considering the n u m b e r s at
the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of periods of: 3) diseased animals
INPUT DATA:
title - NA$
disease, species - DI$,SP$
place (territory), period -
PL$,TI$
measure units - MU$
Data according to individual places (p) or subperiods (s) ? s
Do you have data (real or estimated) on values at the beginning, new cases, extinct cases and at the end of
subperiods (a) or only on initial value
and values of new and extinct cases (b) ?
b
number of rows - N
value at the beginning of the
first row - B1
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key key row
names, number of new cases, of extinct cases
FOR I= 1 TO N
Title: NA$
Subperiod At
beginning New
Extinct At the end
B1
D = sum of previous D(I)
E = sum of previous E(I)
T = sum of (B1+D-E)
CO$(I) D(I) E(I)
cumul(B1+D-E)
T o t a l B1 D E T
11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS
This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned data 1) related
to a selected disease according to different places
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) - DI$,FO$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory - TE$ time (moment) - MO$
number of places - N
data source - DS$
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key P l a c e name, number of foci, intrafocal animals,
diseased animals:
FOR I=1 TO N
POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI AND
INTRAFOCAL ANIMALS IN DIFFERENT PLACES
P l a c e F o c
i I n
t r a f o c a l a n i m a l s Intraf.Diseased
T o t a l Diseased Exposed
Prevalence Rate
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I) (D(I)-E(I)) E(I)/D(I)
T o t a l C
D E (D-E)
E/D
Average per focus D/C
E/C ((D-E)/C) E/D
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS
This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned data 2) related
to a selected disease according to different moments
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) - DI$,FO$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory - TE$ period - PE$
number of moments - N
data source - DS$
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key M o m e n t name, number of foci, intrafocal animals,
diseased animals:
FOR I=1 TO N
POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI AND
INTRAFOCAL ANIMALS IN DIFFERENT MOMENTS
M o m e n t F o c i I
n t r a f o c a l a n i m a l s Intraf.Diseased
T o t a l Diseased Exposed
Prevalence Rate
CO$(I) C(I)
D(I)
E(I)
(D(I)-E(I))
E(I)/D(I)
T o t a l C
D
E
(D-E) E/D
Average per focus D/C
E/C ((D-E)/C)
E/D
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
11.6-POINT PREVALENCE OF FOCI
AND INTRAFOCAL DISEASED/EXPOSED ANIMALS
This subprogramme summarizes in a simple table the above mentioned data 3) related
to different diseases in the same territory and moment
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory - TE$ time (moment) - MO$
number of diseases - N
data source - DS$
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key Disease name, number of foci, intrafocal animals,
diseased animals:
FOR I=1 TO N
PREVALENCE OF FOCI AND
INTRAFOCAL ANIMALS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT
DISEASES
Disease F o c i I n t r a f o c a l a n i m a l s Intraf.Diseased
T o t a l Diseased Exposed
Prevalence Rate
CO$(I) C(I)
D(I)
E(I)
(D(I)-E(I)) E(I)/D(I)
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
11.7-TABLES OF FOCI AND
DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION
This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data 1) related
to a selected disease according to different places
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) - DI$,FO$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory - TE$ total period - MO$
number of places - N
FOR I= 1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key P l a c e name, number of new foci, extinct foci,
newly diseased animals, dead+killed diseased animals, slaughtered diseased
animals, slaughtered suspect animals:
row I. :
CO$(I),
C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I),H(I)
INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION OF FOCI
AND DISEASED ANIMALS IN DIFFERENT PLACES
P l a c e F o
c i D i s e a s e d A n i m a l s Suspect
Animals
New Extinct
New Dead+Kil. Slaught.
Slaughtered
CO$(I) C(I) D(I) E(I)
F(I) G(I) H(I)
T o t a l C D
E
F G
H
Animals per one new focus
E/C) F/C G/C
H/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
H = sum of H(I)
11.7-TABLES OF FOCI AND
DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION
This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data 2) related
to a selected disease according to different subperiods
INPUT DATA:
disease, form(s) - DI$,FO$
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory - TE$ total period - PE$
number of subperiods - N
FOR I= 1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key Subperiod name, number of new foci, extinct foci,
newly diseased animals, dead+killed diseased animals, slaughtered diseased
animals, slaughtered suspect animals:
row I. :
CO$(I),
C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I),H(I)
INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION OF FOCI
AND DISEASED ANIMALS IN DIFFERENT PERIODS
Subperiod F o
c i D i s e a s e d A n i m a l s Suspect
An.
New Extinct
New Dead+Kil. Slaught. Slaughtered
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
G(I)
H(I)
T o t a l C D E
F
G
H
Animals per one new focus E/C)
F/C G/C
H/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
H = sum of H(I)
11.7-TABLES OF FOCI AND
DISEASED ANIMALS INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION
This subprogramme summarizes in a table the above mentioned data 3) related
to different diseases in the same territory and period
INPUT DATA:
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory - TE$ total period - MO$
number of diseases - N
FOR I= 1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required, key Disease name, number of new foci, extinct foci, newly
diseased animals, dead+killed diseased animals, slaughtered diseased animals, slaughtered
suspect animals:
row I. :
CO$(I),
C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I),H(I)
INCIDENCE/EXTINCTION OF SPECIFIC
DISEASES FOCI AND AFFECTED ANIMALS
Disease F o
c i D i s e a s e d A n i m a l s
Suspect An.
New Extinct
New Dead+Kil. Slaught.
Slaughtered
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
G(I)
H(I)
T o t a l C D E
F G
H
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
H = sum of H(I)
11.8-TABLES OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASES FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the slaughtered
animals' and meat inspection in
abattoirs: 1) Total slaughtered animals, edible, conditionally edible
Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? p
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
number of places - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real or estimated), key P l a c e names and continue with columns
values of total slaughtered, edible,
conditionally edible after sterilization, conditionally edible after other treatment:
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I)
VETERINARY INSPECTION
DECISION ON SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS
P l a c e T o t a l Edible
Conditionally edible Non edible
slaughtered steriliz. other treat.
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I)
F(I)
C(I)-(D(I)+E(I)+F(I))
T o t a l C
D
E
F
C-(D+E+F)
Proportion 1.0000 D/C E/C
F/C (C-(D+E+F))/C
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
11.8-TABLES OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASES FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the
slaughtered animals' and meat inspection
in abattoirs: 2) Sanitary (emergency) slaughtered animals
Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? t
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
number of subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and providing a l l
data required (real or estimated), key Subperiod names and continue with columns
values of total slaughtered, sanitary
slaughtered:
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I)
NUMBER OF TOTAL AND S A N I T A R Y SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS
Subperiod T o t a l Sanitary
Proportion
Percentage
slaughtered slaughtered
CO$(I) C(I)
D(I)
D(I)/C(I) (D(I)/C(I))*100
T o t a l C D D/C
(D/C)*100
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
11.8-TABLES OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASES FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the slaughtered
animals' and meat inspection in
abattoirs: 3) Disease findings during slaughtered animals' and meat inspection
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
number of subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
number of slaughtered animals
- T
number of selected diseases -
causes - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real or estimated), key
specific disease name, number of disease findings:
I row:
CO$(I), C(I)
SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS AND MEAT
INSPECTION D I S E A S E S' F I N D I N G S
D i s e a s e Number of Proportion
%
Proportion
%
findings of total findings of total slaughtered
CO$(I) C(I)
C(I)/C
(C(I)/C)*100 C(I)/T (C(I)/T)*100
T o t a l C 1.0000
100.0000 C/T
(C/T)*100
C = sum of C(I)
11.8-TABLES OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASES FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the slaughtered
animals' and meat inspection in
abattoirs: 4) Confiscation of internal organs of slaughtered animals
Do you want to process data according to places (p) or subperiods (t) ? t
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
number of subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real or estimated), key Subperiod names and continue with columns
values of confiscated lungs, hearts,
livers, spleens, kidneys
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I),E(I),F(I),G(I)
C O N F I S C A T I O N OF SLAUGHTERED ANIMALS INTERNAL ORGANS
Subperiod Lungs Hearts Livers Spleens Kidneys
CO$(I) C(I) D(I)
E(I)
F(I) G(I)
T o t a l C
D E F
G
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
E = sum of E(I)
F = sum of F(I)
G = sum of G(I)
11.8-TABLES OF SLAUGHTERED
ANIMALS AND DISEASES FINDINGS
This subprogramme summarizes data on the findings during the slaughtered
animals' and meat inspection in
abattoirs: 5) Causes of premature slaughter
INPUT DATA
species, category(ies) -
SP$,CA$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
number of subperiods - N
FOR I=1 TO N
number of slaughtered animals
- T
number of selected diseases -
causes - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Respecting the sequence order and
providing a l l data required (real or estimated), key disease -
causes names, number of cases :
I row:
CO$(I), C(I)
C A U S E S OF
P R E M A T U R E S L A U G H T
E R OF ANIMALS
C a u s e s Number of Proportion
% Proportion
%
cases of total cases of total slaughtered
CO$(I) C(I)
C(I)/C
(C(I)/C)*100 C(I)/T (C(I)/T)*100
T o t a l C
1.0000 100.0000
C/T
(C/T)*100
C = sum of C(I)
11.9-PREVALENCE OF INTRAFOCAL
ANIMALS BASED ON THE NUMBER OF
OUTBREAKS, AVERAGE HERD SIZE AND INFECTION DURATION
IMPUT DATA: (Ref.: Morley – adapted by author)
disease, species - D$,S$
place, a n n u a l period - P$,T$
number of animals in the
population - A
number of outbreaks in
previous 12 months - O
average herd size - HS
Note: Multiple of outbreaks and average herd size cannot be major than the total number of animals in the population
!
average duration of infection
outbreaks in days - DID
DI=DID/365
RESULT:
Estimated annual period prevalence rate of intrafocal
animals based on the number of the
outbreaks, average herd size and
outbreak duration = (O*HS*DI)/A
11.10-RELATIONS BETWEEN
POPULATION PREVALENCE AND AFFECTED HERDS PREVALENCE
(relations between the values of disease morbidity and nidality; applicable
if affected herds' composition and size are relatively homogenous)
INPUT DATA:
disease - DI$
species - SP$
place - PL$
time - TI$
Answer only t w o questions about rates (>0 - 1) to
calculate the value of the third one !
population prevalence rate of
diseased animals - PPR
average prevalence rate of
diseased animals in affected herds -
AHP
prevalence rate of affected
herds - PRO
RESULT:
Estimated population prevalence
rate of diseased animals = PRO*AHP
Estimated average prevalence
rate of diseased animals in affected herds
= PPR/PRO
Estimated prevalence rate of
affected herds = PPR/AHP
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates: 1) average
number of animals per territory unit
Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes,
horses, mules/asses, camels, sheep,
goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry.
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
territory measure units - TMU$
land total - T1
arable land - T2
pastures - T3
RESULTS:
Average number
of animals per TMU$
Species Total Arable Pastures
Land
Land
cattle A/T1
A/T2 A/T3
dairy cows B/T1
B/T2
B/T3
buffaloes C/T1
C/T2 C/T3
horses D/T1 D/T2 D/T3
mules/asses E/T1
E/T2
E/T3
camels F/T1
F/T2
F/T3
sheep G/T1
G/T2 G/T3
goats H/T1
H/T2
H/T3
pigs I/T1
I/T2 I/T3
chickens J/T1
J/T2 J/T3
other poultry K/T1
K/T2 K/T3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 2) average
number of animals per inhabitant
Pre-defined list of animal species: cattle, dairy cows, buffaloes,
horses, mules/asses, camels, sheep,
goats, pigs, chickens and other poultry.
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
total number of
inhabitants - P1
inhabitants in rural
areas - P2
inhabitants in urban
areas - P3
RESULTS:
Average number of
animals per inhabitant
Species Inhabitant Inhabitant Inhabitant
in rural in
urban
areas areas
cattle A/P1
A/P2 A/P3
dairy cows B/P1 B/P2 B/P3
buffaloes C/P1
C/P2 C/P3
horses D/P1
D/P2 D/P3
mules/asses E/P1
E/P2
E/P3
camels F/P1
F/P2 F/P3
sheep G/P1
G/P2 G/P3
goats H/P1
H/P2 H/P3
pigs I/P1
I/P2 I/P3
chickens J/P1 J/P2 J/P3
other poultry K/P1
K/P2 K/P3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 3) average
number of animals per veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
total veterinarians - V1
governmental
veterinarians - V2
private veterinarians - V3
RESULTS:
Average number of animals
per veterinarian
Species Veterinarian Government
Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
cattle A/V1
A/V2
A/V3
dairy cows B/V1 B/V2 B/V3
buffaloes C/V1
C/V2 C/V3
horses D/V1
D/V2 D/V3
mules/asses E/V1 E/V2 E/V3
camels F/V1
F/V2 F/V3
sheep G/V1
G/V2
G/V3
goats H/V1
H/V2 H/V3
pigs I/V1 I/V2 I/V3
chickens J/V1
J/V2 J/V3
other poultry K/V1 K/V2 K/V3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates: 4) total
number of livestock units
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
Livestock units rates:
a) FAO Animal Health Service
(AGAH) conversion rates are as follows: Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5;
dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1;
sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) FAO Statistic Division (ESSD)
conversion rates are as follows: Cattle
= 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1;
goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? FAO Animal Health Service (AGAH)
rate (a) or FAO Statistic Division (ESSD) rate (b) or a particular one (p) ? a
RESULTS:
LU1=A*.5+B*1+C*.5+D*1+E*.5+F*1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.2+J*.01+K*.01
LU2=A*.7+C*1+D*1+E*.8+F*1.1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.25+J*.01+K*.015
LU3=A*CA+B*CB+C*CC+D*CD+E*CE+F*CF+G*CG+H*CCH+I*CI+J*CJ+K*CK
Total number of livestock
units =
LU1
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 5) average
number of livestock units per territory unit
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
territory measure units - TMU$
land total - T1
arable land - T2
pastures - T3
Livestock units rates:
a) FAO Animal Health Service
(AGAH) conversion rates are as follows: Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5;
dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1;
sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) FAO Statistic Division (ESSD)
conversion rates are as follows: Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken
= 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? FAO Animal Health Service (AGAH)
rate (a) or FAO Statistic Division (ESSD) rate (b) or a particular one (p) ? b
RESULTS:
LU1=A*.5+B*1+C*.5+D*1+E*.5+F*1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.2+J*.01+K*.01
LU2=A*.7+C*1+D*1+E*.8+F*1.1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.25+J*.01+K*.015
LU3=A*CA+B*CB+C*CC+D*CD+E*CE+F*CF+G*CG+H*CCH+I*CI+J*CJ+K*CK
Total livestock
units = LU2
Average number of livestock units per
territory unit
Total Arable Pastures
Land Land
Livestock units per TMU$
LU2/T1 LU2/T2 LU2/T3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 6) average
number of livestock units per inhabitant
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
total number of
inhabitants - P1
inhabitants in rural
areas - P2
inhabitants in urban
areas - P3
Livestock units rates:
a) FAO Animal Health Service
(AGAH) conversion rates are as follows: Cattle
(without dairy cows) = 0.5; dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken =
0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) FAO Statistic Division (ESSD)
conversion rates are as follows: Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken
= 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? FAO Animal Health Service (AGAH)
rate (a) or FAO Statistic Division (ESSD) rate (b) or a particular one (p) ? p
If you wish to apply different conversion rates enter numbers in following
table:
conversion rates for cattle total, dairy cows, buffaloes -
CA,CB,CC
conversion rates for horses, mules+asses,camels - CD,CE,CF
conversion rates for sheep, goats,
pigs - CG,CCH,CI
conversion rates for
chickens, other poultry -
CJ,CK
RESULTS:
LU1=A*.5+B*1+C*.5+D*1+E*.5+F*1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.2+J*.01+K*.01
LU2=A*.7+C*1+D*1+E*.8+F*1.1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.25+J*.01+K*.015
LU3=A*CA+B*CB+C*CC+D*CD+E*CE+F*CF+G*CG+H*CCH+I*CI+J*CJ+K*CK
Total livestock
units = LU3
Average number of
livestock units per inhabitant
Inhabitant Inhabitant Inhabitant
in
rural in urban
areas areas
Livestock units LU3/P1 LU3/P2 LU3/P3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 7) average
number of livestock units per veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
number of cattle total, dairy
cows, buffaloes - A,B,C
number of horses, mules/asses,
camels - D,E,F
number of sheep, goats,
pigs - G,H,I
number of chickens, other poultry - J,K
total veterinarians - V1
governmental
veterinarians - V2
private veterinarians - V3
Livestock units rates:
a) FAO Animal Health Service
(AGAH) conversion rates are as follows: Cattle (without dairy cows) = 0.5;
dairy cows = 1; buffaloes = 0.5; horses = 1; mules/asses = 0.5; camels = 1;
sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.2; chicken = 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
b) FAO Statistic Division (ESSD)
conversion rates are as follows: Cattle = 0.7; buffaloes = 1; horses = 1;
mules/asses = 0.8; camels = 1.1; sheep = 0.1; goats = 0.1; pigs = 0.25; chicken
= 0.01; other poultry = 0.01.
Which conversion rates do you wish ? FAO Animal Health Service (AGAH)
rate (a) or FAO Statistic Division (ESSD) rate (b) or a particular one (p) ? a
RESULT:
LU1=A*.5+B*1+C*.5+D*1+E*.5+F*1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.2+J*.01+K*.01
LU2=A*.7+C*1+D*1+E*.8+F*1.1+G*.1+H*.1+I*.25+J*.01+K*.015
LU3=A*CA+B*CB+C*CC+D*CD+E*CE+F*CF+G*CG+H*CCH+I*CI+J*CJ+K*CK
Total livestock
units = LU1
Average number of livestock units per
veterinarian
Veterinarian Governmental Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
Livestock units
LU1/V1 LU1/V2
LU1/V3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND
VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 8) average
number of territory units per veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
total veterinarians - V1
governmental
veterinarians - V2
private veterinarians - V3
territory measure units - TMU$
land total - T1
arable land - T2
pastures - T3
RESULTS:
Average number of territory
measure units per veterinarian
Territory Veterinarian Government
Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
total land T1/V1 T1/V2
T1/V3
arable land T2/V1 T2/V2 T2/V3
pastures T3/V1 T3/V2 T3/V3
11.11-ANIMALS AND LIVESTOCK
UNITS PER TERRITORY UNIT, INHABITANT AND VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates : 9) average
number of inhabitants per veterinarian
INPUT DATA:
territory, time - T$,D$
total veterinarians - V1
governmental
veterinarians - V2
private veterinarians - V3
total number of
inhabitants - P1
inhabitants in rural
areas - P2
inhabitants in urban
areas - P3
RESULTS:
Average number of inhabitants per
veterinarian
Inhabitants Veterinarian
Government Private
Veterinarian Veterinarian
Total inhabitants P1/V1 P1/V2
P1/V3
Inhabitants in rural areas P2/V1
P2/V2
P2/V3
Inhabitants in urban areas P3/V1
P3/V2 P3/V3
11.12-RATES OF SPREAD OF
ANIMAL DISEASES' OUTBREAKS
INPUT DATA:
disease, type of outbreaks -
DI$,OT$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
Do you have data according to subterritories
(t) or subperiods (p) ? t
number of rows - N
FOR I= 1 TO N
Key row names, number of primary outbreaks, secondary outbreaks
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Subterritory Outbreaks P r i m a r y S e c o n d a r y Prim/Sec.
T o t a l Total Rate
Total Rate
R a t
i o
1
:
CO$(I) T(I)
C(I) C(I)/T(I) D(I) D(I)/T(I) D(I)/C(I)
T o t a l T
C
C/T
D D/T
D/C
T(I)=C(I)+D(I)
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
T = T+C(I)+D(I)
11.12-RATES OF SPREAD OF
ANIMAL DISEASES' OUTBREAKS
INPUT DATA:
disease, type of outbreaks -
DI$,OT$
territory, period - PL$,TI$
Do you have data according to subterritories (t) or subperiods (p) ? p
number of rows - N
FOR I= 1 TO N
Key row names, number of primary outbreaks, secondary outbreaks
I row:
CO$(I), C(I),D(I)
RESULT:
Subperiod Outbreaks P r i m a r y
S e c o n d a r y Prim/Sec.
T o t a l
Total
Rate Total
Rate R
a t i o
1
:
CO$(I) T(I)
C(I)
C(I)/T(I) D(I) D(I)/T(I) D(I)/C(I)
T o t a l T C C/T
D
D/T
D/C
T(I)=C(I)+D(I)
C = sum of C(I)
D = sum of D(I)
T = T+C(I)+D(I)
12-COMPLEMENTARY SUBPROGRAMMES - II
1-Health rates' adjustment based on
category structure standards
2-Morbidity/mortality adjustment based
on category rates' standards
3-Two populations rates' adjustment
based on standard proportions
4-Two populations rates' adjustment
based on category standards
5-Selection of methods for specific
disease control programme
6-Survey response rate
7-Dilution of solution for
disinfection, disinfestation, etc.
8-Summary value of animal products per
one veterinarian
9-Value of individual animal products
per one veterinarian
10-Animal commodity export/import size
per one veterinarian
11-Per capita production of food of
animal origin
12-Selection of priority diseases for
control programme
13-True prevalence estimation based on
diag. method detectability
12.1-POPULATION HEALTH RATES'
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STRUCTURE STANDARDS
(Ref.: Rose, Barker)
This subprogramme calculates the comparison adjustment of stratified
morbidity (incidence, prevalence) rates,
mortality rates, etc. using direct standardization based on known standard
category structure of the reference population. It includes a weighted average of the stratum
- specific rates with weights equal to
the proportion of animals in each stratum group in a convenient reference population.
INPUT DATA: (proportions and
rates in form of numbers between >0 and 1 !)
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$ category(ies) - CA$
disease(s)/form - DI$
rate type - RA$
number of stratum groups -
subcategories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Do you have relative - proportions (r) or absolute data (a) on standard category structure ? r
List of data - subcategory
names, proportions of reference
population (sum = 1.0 !), rates:
I: subcategory, proportion, rate
- CN$(I),P(I),R(I)
R = sum of R(I)
ST = sum of (R(I)*(P(I)/
T A B L E OF D I
R E C T S T A N D A R D I Z A T I O N
Subcategory Proportion Subcategory Standardized
(Stratum Group) of Reference RA$ Rate
Population Rate
in Subcategory
CN$(I) P(I)/
T o t a l 1.0000 ST
Direct adjusted (standardized)
RA$ rate of total population in study = ST
12.1-POPULATION HEALTH RATES'
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STRUCTURE STANDARDS
(Ref.: Rose, Barker)
This subprogramme calculates the
comparison adjustment of stratified morbidity (incidence, prevalence) rates, mortality
rates, etc. using direct standardization
based on known standard category structure of the reference population. It includes a weighted average of the stratum
- specific rates with weights equal to
the proportion of animals in each stratum group in a convenient reference population.
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$ category(ies) - CA$
disease(s)/form - DI$
rate type - RA$
number of stratum groups -
subcategories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Do you have relative -
proportions (r) or absolute data (a)
on standard category structure ? a
List of data - subcategory
names, numbers of reference
population, rates:
I: subcategory, number, rate
value - CN$(I),SN(I),R(I)
R = sum of R(I)
S = sum of SN(I)
P(I) = SN(I)/S
ST = sum of (R(I)*(P(I)/
T A B L E OF D I
R E C T S T A N D A R D I Z A T I O N
Subcategory Proportion
Subcategory Standardized
(Stratum Group) of
Reference RA$ Rate
Population Rate
in Subcategory
CN$(I) P(I)/
T o t a l 1.0000 ST
Direct adjusted (standardized)
RA$ rate of total population in study
= ST
12.2-MORBIDITY/MORTALITY
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY RATES'
STANDARDS
(Ref.: Rose, Barker)
This subprogramme calculates the
comparison adjustment of the stratified morbidity (incidence, prevalence) rates,
mortality rates, etc. using indirect
standardization based on known standard stratum-specific rates of the reference population.
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species - SP$ category(ies) - CA$
disease(s)/form - DI$
rate type - RA$
observed cases - OC
number of stratum-specific
groups - subcategories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data - subcategory
names, number in study, standard rate in
reference group (in form of a number between >0 and 1 !):
I: subcategory, number in study,
standard rate - CN$(I),R(I),P(I)
total reference population standard rate –
TPS
RESULT:
Subcategory Number Standard Expected
(Stratum) in Study
RA$
Cases
Rate
CN$(I) R(I)
P(I) (R(I)*P(I)
R = sum of R(I)
ST = sum of (R(I)*P(I))
T o t a l R
TPS
ST
Indexed rate = ST/R
Standardizing factor = TPS/(ST/R)
Standardized
rate = (TPS/(ST/R))*(OC/R)
Adjusted relative risk
(standardized RA$ ratio) = observed
cases/expected cases = OC /ST =
(OC/ST)*100 %
12.3-TWO POPULATIONS RATES' COMPARISON
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON STANDARD PROPORTIONS (Ref.:
Jenicek et al., Martin et al.)
(direct standardization based on two populations' category structure)
This subprogramme calculates the
comparison adjustment of morbidity or mortality rates (investigation results)
in two populations (herds, flocks, groups, etc.) with the same categories
(according to sex, age, breed, etc.) but in different proportions influencing
the comparison result. The adjusted rate
give the expected rate if the observed stratum-specific rates are applied in a
standard population.
INPUT DATA:
place, time - PL$,TI$
species, disease(s) - SP$,DI$
indicator/rate - IN$
category(ies) - CA$
population A, population B -
P1,P2
number of subcategories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data - subcategory names, number of animals, observed cases:
I: population A: subcategory, number of animals, cases -
SC$(I),A1(I),D1(I)
I: population B (do not repeat
the name of subcategory !):
subcategory: number of animals, cases - A2(I),D2(I)
S U M M A R Y T A B L E
OF B A S I C I N P U T
D A T A
P o p u l a t i o n A
P o p u l a t i o
n B
-------------------------------- -------------------------------------
Subcategory Number
of Animals Rate
Number
of Animals Rate
-------------------------- --------------------------
Total
Cases Total Cases
SC$(I) A1(I)
D1(I) D1(I)/A1(I) A2(I)
D2(I)
D2(I)/A2(I)
T o t a l TPI
TDI
TDI/TPI TPII
TDII TDII/TPII
TPI = sum of A1(I)
TPII = sum of A2(I)
TDI = sum of D1(I)
TDII = sum of D2(I)
D I R E C T L Y A D J U S T E D ( S T A N D A R D I Z E D ) R A T E S
Subcategory Total
Number of Population A
Population B
Animals of Both ----------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------
Populations Rate
Number of
Rate Number of
Cases Cases
SC$(I) A1(I)+A2(I)
D1(I)/A1(I) (A1(I)+A2(I))*(D1(I)/A1(I) D2(I)/A2(I) (A1(I)+A2(I))*(D2(I)/A2(I))
T o t a l TP
TD1/TP TD1 TD2/TP
TD2
TP = sum of (A1(I)+A2(I))
TD1 = sum of (A1(I)+A2(I))*(D1(I)/A1(I))
TD2 = sum of (A1(I)+A2(I))*(D2(I)/A2(I))
Directly adjusted rate of the first population = TD1/TP
Directly adjusted rate of the second population = TD2/TP
If (TD1/TP)>(TD2/TP) then the result is No.1 else No.2
Result No.1:
Comparative index =
TD1/TP / TD2/TP =
((TD1/TP)/(TD2/TP))
The adjusted IN$ rate of the
population A is superior over the
population B adjusted rate by
((TD1/TP)/(TD2/TP))*100-100 %
Result No.2:
Comparative index =
TD2/TP / TD1/TP =
((TD2/TP)/(TD1/TP))
The adjusted rate of the
population B is superior over the
population A adjusted rate by
((TD2/TP)/(TD1/TP))*100-100 %
12.4-TWO POPULATIONS RATES'
COMPARISON ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CATEGORY STANDARDS
(Ref.: Martin et al.)
(indirect standardization based on standard category specific rates)
This subprogramme calculates
the comparison adjustment of stratum-specific rates (investigation
results) in two populations (herds,
flocks, groups, etc.) with the same categories (according to sex, age, breed,
etc.) but in different proportions influencing the comparison result.
INPUT DATA (all rates in form of
proportion, i.e. number between >0 and 1 !):
place, time - PL$,TI$
species, disease(s) - SP$,DI$
indicator/rate - IN$
average rate for standard
population - AR
category(ies) - CA$
population A, population B -
A$,B$
number of observed cases in
population A, in population B - CA,CB
number of subcategories - N
FOR I=1 TO N
List of data - subcategory names, number of animals of population A, population
B, standard population rates :
I: subcategory, pop. A, pop. B,
standard rate - SC$(I),A(I),B(I),S(I)
SUMMARY TABLE
OF B A S I C I N P U T
D A T A
P o p u l a t i o n
A P
o p u l a t i o n B
-------------------------------- --------------------------------
Subcategory Number
of Proportion Number of
Proportion Standard
Animals
Animals Population
Rates
SC$(I) A(I) A(I)/SA B(I)
B(I)/SB
S(I)
SA = sum of A(I)
SB = sum of B(I)
T o t a l SA
1.0000 SB
1.0000
C a s e s CA
CB
Crude rate CA/SA CB/SB AR
A1=(A(1)/SA)*S(1)
A2=(A(2)/SA)*S(2)
A3=(A(3)/SA)*S(3)
A4=(A(4)/SA)*S(4)
A5=(A(5)/SA)*S(5)
SUA=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5
The rate expected if the standard rates applied in population A = SUA
This leads to standardized cases ratio = ((CA/SA)/SUA)*100 %
B1=(B(1)/SB)*S(1)
B2=(B(2)/SB)*S(2)
B3=(B(3)/SB)*S(3)
B4=(B(4)/SB)*S(4)
B5=(B(5)/SB)*S(5)
SU2=B1+B2+B3+B4+B5
The rate expected if the standard rates applied in population B = SU2
This leads to standardized cases ratio = ((CB/SB)/SU2)*100 %
Indirect adjusted rate for the total population A = ((CA/SA)/SUA)*AR
Indirect adjusted rate for the total population B = ((CB/SB)/SU2)*AR
Comparative index A/B = ((CA/SA)/SUA)*AR / ((CB/SB)/SU2)*AR = (((CA/SA)/SUA)*AR)/(((CB/SB)/SU2)*AR)*100 %
Comparative index B/A = ((CB/SB)/SU2)*AR / ((CA/SA)/SUA)*AR = (((CB/SB)/SU2)*AR)/(((CA/SA)/SUA)*AR)*100 %
If (CA/SA)/SUA>(CB/SB)/SU2 then the result is No.1 else No.2
Result No.1:
The adjusted IN$ rate of the population A is superior over the
population B adjusted rate by ((CA/SA)/SUA)/((CB/SB)/SU2)*100-100) %
Result No.2:
The adjusted IN$ rate of the population B is superior over the
population A adjusted rate by ((CB/SB)/SU2)/((CA/SA)/SUA)*100-100) %
12.5-SELECTION OF METHODS FOR
SPECIFIC DISEASE CONTROL PROGRAMME
Assessment of eligibility according to method impact ability -
effectivity, inputs availability in a given place/territory and time after
analyzing all substantial factors influencing
strategy/measures practicability and probability of success of
time-bounded programmes, using grading scales.
This subprogramme can be used also for selection of strategy for
specific control programme.
INPUT DATA:
diseases - D$
programme objectives - DI$
place, period - LU$,TI$
Number of methods (incl.
combinations) in consideration - N
Scales consist of g r a d e
s (0 to 10 !). All questions must be
answered !
FOR I=1 TO N
method No. I : name: N$(I)
grades of availability (considering programme objectives):
legislation, diagnosis,
analysis, measures -
B(I),G(I),Z(I),S(I)
grades of inputs availability, success probability - F(I),D(I)
Programme target multiplier coefficients are prefixed:
legislation = 5
diagnosis = 7
analysis = 5
measures) = 9
Do you accept these values (y) or you will use others (o) ?
IF 'o' THEN IGB=?, IGE=?, IGZ=?, IGS=?
Define values (1>10 !) of realistic programme target multiplier
coefficients fitting better to the given conditions/period than the prefixed
values:
legislation - IGB
diagnosis - IGE
analysis - IGZ
measures - IGS
SELECTION OF PRIORITY METHODS
FOR SPECIFIC DISEASE CONTROL PROGRAMME
Method(s) Grades of Availability Grades
of
---------------------------------
----------------------
legis- diag. analy- mea-
input proba-
T O T A L
lation nosis
sis sures
avai- bility points
--------------------------------------- labi- of
Multiplier *IGB
*IGE *IGZ *IGS
lity success
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR I=1 TO N
SU(I)=B(I)*IGB+G(I)*IGE+Z(I)*IGZ+S(I)*IGS
RES(I)=SU(I)*F(I)*D(I)
N$(I)
+B(I)
+G(I) +Z(I) +S(I)
*F(I) *D(I) RES(I)
T=0
FOR I=1 TO N
T=T+RES(I)
Method(s) Proportion Percentage
of the total allocated points
FOR I=1 TO N
N$(I) RES(I)/T RES(I)/T*100
T o t a l 1.0000 100.0000
12.6-SURVEY RESPONSE RATE
INPUT DATA:
purpose of survey - PS$
place, time - PL$,TI$
survey conducted by:
face-to-face inquiry (f), postal service (m), questionnaire (q), phone (p), postal service
(m) or electronic mail (e) - TS$
number of individuals (units)
who would have been surveyed if all had
participated (survey sample) - NI
number of individuals (units)
who was reached for the survey - IR
number of completed or returned
survey instrument (questionnaire, interview, etc.) - CS
RESULT:
IF TS$='f' THEN TS$='face-to-face inquiry
IF TS$='q' THEN TS$='self-completed questionnaire
IF TS$='p' THEN TS$='phone
IF TS$='m' THEN TS$='postal service
IF TS$='e' THEN TS$='electronic mail
RESULT:
Survey sample
rate = IR/NI
Response rate
of survey sample = CS/NI
Response rate
of surveyed = CS/IR
12.7-DILUTION OF SOLUTION FOR
DISINFECTION, DISINFESTATION, ETC.
Ref.: Manual of Veterinary
Investigation Laboratory Techniques Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and
Subprogramme calculates required volume of certain concentration of the
solutions for disinfection, disinfestation, treatment, etc.
INPUT DATA:
solution - SO$ purpose -
PU$
place, time - PL$,TI$
required concentration in % - R
volume measure units - MU$
total volume of solution required - V
original concentration in %
(major than required concentration)
- O
RESULT:
R*V/O MU$ of O
% solution must be diluted with V-(R*V/O)
MU$ of diluent to obtain
V MU$ of R % solution
Note: See also 10.8. subprogramme
12.8-SUMMARY VALUE OF ANIMAL
PRODUCTS PER ONE VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates average value of products of animal origin per
one veterinarian.
place, time - PL$,TI$
measure units - MU$
Types of animal products - N
List products, value in measure units:
FOR I=1 TO N
product, value - AP$(I),X(I)
T=T+X(I)
total number of veterinarians:
- TV
number of government veterinarians
- QV
number of accredited veterinarians
- AV
number of private veterinarians
- PV
RESULTS:
FOR I=1 TO N
I: AP$(I) X(I)
MU$
Total: T MU$
Average value per one veterinarian = T/TV MU$
Average value per one government veterinarian = T/QV MU$
Average value per one accredited veterinarian = T/AV MU$
Average value per one private veterinarian = T/PV
MU$
12.9-VALUE OF INDIVIDUAL
ANIMAL PRODUCTS PER ONE VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates average individual values of products
(produced, traded, exported, imported or consumed) of animal origin per one
veterinarian.
The average values of the products are calculated for the veterinarian
(total), government, private and accredited ones.
The total amounts of the products are divided per the number of
veterinarian. Used method is similar to the method used in previous
subprogramme (12.8).
12.10-ANIMAL COMMODITY
EXPORT/IMPORT SIZE PER ONE VETERINARIAN
This subprogramme calculates average size of exported/imported animal
commodities per one veterinarian.
place, time -
PL$,TI$
measure units -
MU$
export (e) or import (i) -
EI$
Types of animal commodities - N
T=0
List: commodity, quantity in
measure units:
FOR I=1 TO N
I: commodity, quantity -
AP$(I),X(I)
T=T+X(I)
total number of veterinarians:
- TV
number of government veterinarians
- QV
number of accredited veterinarians
- AV
number of private veterinarians
- PV
RESULTS:
Commodity: Quantity:
FOR I=1 TO N
I: AP$(I) X(I)
MU$
Total: T MU$
Average value per one veterinarian =
T/TV MU$
Average value per one government veterinarian =
T/QV MU$
Average value per one accredited veterinarian =
T/AV MU$
Average value per one private veterinarian =
T/PV MU$
12.11-PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF
FOOD OF ANIMAL ORIGIN
This subprogramme calculates average production of food (event. of other
products) of animal origin per one person according to: 1) product 2) place 3) time
The results are obtained dividing total quantity of respective products
by the number of persons living in a given place and time.
INPUT DATA:
place, period - PL$,PE$
total number of persons - IH
product - PR$
product measure units - MU$
number of products or places
or subperiods) - N
List data:
FOR I=1 TO N
ad 1 - product, measure units, quantity - P$(I),U$(I),Q#(I)
ad 2 - place, persons, product quantity - IN$(I),S#(I),Q#(I)
ad 3 - subperiod, persons, product quantity - IN$(I),S#(I),Q#(I)
T#=T#+Q#(I)
S#=S#+S#(I)
PER CAPITA PRODUCTION
OF FOOD OF
ANIMAL ORIGIN
ad 1:
Product Measure Quantity Average
Units per Capita
FOR I=1 TO N
P$(I) U$(I)
Q#(I)
Q#(I)/IH
ad 2: Place and
ad 3: Subperiod Persons Quantity Average Grand T o
t a l
of Product
per Capita Proportion
%
FOR I=1 TO N
IN$(I)
S#(I)
Q#(I) Q#(I)/S#(I) Q#(I)/T#
Q#(I)/T#*100
T o t a l S#
T#
T#/S# 1.000 100.0000
12.12-SELECTION OF PRIORITY
DISEASES FOR CONTROL PROGRAMME
This subprogramme facilitates selection of the most important diseases for
the control programme, considering all substantial factors influencing strategy/measures
practicability, inputs availability and probability of success of time-bounded
programme in a given place/territory and period. The procedure is similar as
described in the subprogramme 9.1., however using different criteria.
The criteria used in this case consist in the assessment: of diseases importance,
ability to detect these diseases, to analyze their situation, to apply
necessary measures and of the availability of inputs and probability of
success.
12.13-TRUE PREVALENCE
ESTIMATION BASED ON DIAG. METHOD DETECTABILITY
This subprogramme evaluates the results of animal population
investigation applying diagnostic method detectability grade for the estimation
of true prevalence rate from apparent prevalence rate, i.e. based on positive
results. Detectability rate represents the ability of a given diagnostic method
to detect (discover) all specifically affected animals (including all disease forms
such as subclinical cases, etiological agents carriers, etc.).
INPUT DATA:
apparent prevalence rate - proportion of animals with positive test - APR
test detectability rate - DE
RESULT:
Estimated true prevalence
rate among tested animals = APR/D =
APR/D*100 %
13-ANNEX I - SELECTED BASIC STATISTICAL
METHODS
1-Arithmetic mean and measures of
dispersion
2-Arithmetic mean from grouped data
and measures of dispersion
3-Calculation of proportion and its
standard error
4-Conversion between
percentage/proportion and absolute data
5-Distribution of cumulative
frequencies
6-Chi-square test and contingency tables
7-McNemar's test - paired chi-square
test
8-Linear regression and correlation
coefficient
9-Fisher's test for small frequencies'
comparison
10-Moving averages - smoothing of time
series
11-Simple arithmetic operations
13.1-ARITHMETIC MEAN AND
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 45-48,69-73
This subprogramme calculates:
- arithmetic and
geometric mean
- weighted arithmetic
mean
- arithmetic mean and measures of dispersion
13.2-ARITHMETIC MEAN FROM
GROUPED DATA AND MEASURES OF DISPERSION
Ref.:
Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford Graduate Center,
USA, p. 47,69-73
This subprogramme calculates:
- simple arithmetic mean
from grouped data
- arithmetic mean from
grouped data and measures of dispersion
13.3-CALCULATIONS OF
PROPORTION AND ITS STANDARD ERROR
Ref.:
Putt S.N.H. et al.(1987).- Veterinary epidemiology and economics in Africa,
International Livestock Centre for Africa, Addis Ababa, p. 53-54
This subprogramme calculates:
- simple proportion
- standard error of
proportion
13.4-CONVERSION BETWEEN
PERCENTAGE/PROPORTION AND ABSOLUTE DATA
This subprogramme calculates:
- percentage and
proportion from absolute data
- absolute data from
percentage or proportion
13.5-DISTRIBUTION OF
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCIES
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 29-30
13.6-CHI-SQUARE TEST AND
CONTINGENCY TABLES
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 201-216, 345
Lon Poole (1982).- Programmi practici in
BASIC. Edizione
Italiana. Grupo Editoriale Jackson,
Milano, p. 155-158
This subprogramme calculates :
- chi-square test
- frequency test -
contingency table 2x2
- frequency test -
contingency table 2x3
- frequency test -
contingency table 2xN
- table of chi-square
critical values
13.7-McNEMAR'S TEST - PAIRED
CHI-SQUARE TEST
Ref.: Navarro R. Fierro (1987).- Introduccion a la bioestadistica. Analisis de variables binarias. McGraw-Hill de Mexico,
p. 91-93
13.8-LINEAR REGRESSION AND
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
(testing relationship between two variables - independent/dependent)
Ref.:
Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford Graduate Center,
USA, p. 221, 241-260
This subprogramme calculates:
- linear regression incl.
correlation coefficient (using least
squares regression line)
- simple linear
correlation coefficient
- coefficient of rank
correlation
13.9-FISHER'S TEST FOR SMALL
FREQUENCIES' COMPARISON
Ref.: Navarro R. Fierro (1987).- Introduccion a la bioestadistica. Analisis de variables binarias. McGraw-Hill de Mexico,
p. 88-91
This subprogramme calculates
the comparison test when some values is
minor than 5 and number of total cases is minor than.
13.10-MOVING AVERAGES -
SMOOTHING OF TIME SERIES
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 285-286
This subprogramme calculates
moving averages of order 3 reducing unwanted fluctuation and extreme values -
smoothing of time series.
13.11-SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
OPERATIONS
This subprogramme carries out simple arithmetic operations:
Additions Subtraction
Multiplication Division
Exponentiation Extraction of roots
14-ANNEX II - OTHER SELECTED STATISTICAL
AND ECONOMIC METHODS
1-Test of the difference between two
proportions
2-Test of the difference between two
arithmetic means
3-Test of the difference in means of
two small-sized samples
4-Test of matched comparison between
different values in pairs
5-Confidence intervals estimates for
population mean
6-Confidence intervals estimates for
population proportion
7-Confidence intervals for the difference
between means
8-Confidence intervals for the
difference between proportions
9-Table of Student's 't' critical
values
10-Vet. service cost and animal
population/production values
11-Conversion between metric and Anglo-Saxon
measures
12-Analysis of critical point of
production economic efficiency
13-Application of interest, discount
and inflation rate
14-Conversion between national
currencies' values
15-Model of budget for animal health
programme - I
16-Model of budget for animal health
programme - II
14.1-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TWO PROPORTIONS
(sample proportions obtained in large samples)
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc.,
14.2-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TWO ARITHMETIC MEANS
(sample means obtained in large samples)
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc.,
14.3-TEST OF THE DIFFERENCE IN
MEANS OF TWO SMALL-SIZED SAMPLES
Ref.:
Putt S.N.H. et al.(1987).- Veterinary epidemiology and economics in
14.4-TEST OF MATCHED
COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT VALUES IN PAIRS
Ref.:
Putt S.N.H. et al.(1987).- Veterinary epidemiology and economics in
14.5-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION MEAN
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 157-162
14.6-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
ESTIMATES FOR POPULATION PROPORTIONS
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 158, 162
14.7-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO POPULATION MEANS
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 158-159, 163-164
14.8-CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PROPORTIONS
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 163-164
14.9-TABLE OF CRITICAL VALUES
FOR S T U D E N T'S 't'
DISTRIBUTION
Ref.:
Putt S.N.H. et al.(1987).- Veterinary epidemiology and economics in
Ref.: Spiegel M.R. (1988).- Theory and Problems of Statistics, 2nd
edition, Mc Graw-Hill Inc., Hartford
Graduate Center, USA, p. 344
14.10-VETERINARY SERVICE COST
AND ANIMAL POPULATION/PRODUCTION VALUES
This original subprogramme
calculates the ratios of veterinary service cost to values of animal populations and
their production which health
protection and wholesomeness the service is jointly responsible for.
INPUT DATA:
place/territory - TE$ period - PE$
veterinary service (type) - VS$
monetary units - MU$
veterinary service total cost - A
veterinary service net cost (total minus income) - B
value of domestic animal populations - C
value of animal production - D
market value of animal production - E
RESULT:
Ratio service
cost/population value = A/C = 1 :
C/A
Ratio service
cost/production value
= A/D = 1 : D/A
Ratio service
cost/production market value
= A/E = 1 :
E/A
Ratio service
cost/production + population values
= A/(D+C) = 1 :
(D+C)/A
Ratio service net
cost/population value = B/C = 1 :
C/B
Ratio service net
cost/production value = B/D
= 1 : D/B
Ratio service net
cost/production market value = B/E = 1 :
E/B
Ratio service net cost/production + population
values = B/(D+C) = 1 :
(D+C)/B
14.11-CONVERSION BETWEEN
METRIC AND ANGLO-SAXON MEASURES
Based on official sources.
14.12-ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL
POINT OF PRODUCTION ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
(break-even analysis; applicable also for service economic efficiency)
Given four of the following
variables: fixed costs, sale price per
unit, variable cost per unit, number of
units sold and gross profit, this
subprogramme evaluates the remaining variable. To calculate the break-even values, let the gross profit equal zero (= 0).
INPUT DATA:
phenomenon - PH$ monetary units - U$
S k i p indicator to be calculated; the other four data must be available !
gross profit (benefit) - GP
number of units
sold - U price of unit - P
total fixed costs - F
variable cost per
unit - V
Price should be major than
variable cost per unit !
RESULTS:
Variable cost per
unit = P-(GP+F)/U
Total fixed costs =
(U*(P-V))-GP
Price of unit = ((GP+F)/U)+V
Number of units to be
sold =
(GP+F)/(P-V)
Gross profit
(benefit) = (U*(P-V))-F
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
1) Changed
values applying compound annual interest rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units - MU$
initial value (of present
- base year 0) - VP
value of annual interest
rate (0-1) - IA
number of years - N
RESULT:
F u t u r e V a l u e s
End of year Amount
FOR I=1 TO N
I VP*(1+IA)^(I)
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme
calculates: 2) Changed values applying annual discount rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units - MU$
value to be discounted - VD
value of annual discount
rate (0-1) - DA
number of years - N
RESULT:
D i s c o u n t e d v a l u e s
End of year Discount Amount
factor
FOR I=1 TO N
I 1/(1+DA)^(I) VD/(1+DA)^(I)
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme
calculates: 3) Annual interest rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units - MU$
initial value (of present
- base year 0) - VP
value of the future year
(value must be
major than that of the
present year) - VF
number of years between
the present
and
future values - N
RESULT:
Calculation of the annual
interest rate
L=(LOG(VF)-LOG(VP))/N
To achieve from the initial
value of VP MU$ during N years the future value of VF MU$ there is a need for the annual interest rate
of EXP(L)-1
(EXP - exponential function)
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATES (Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
4) Number
of years to reach a given value
INPUT DATA:
monetary units - MU$
initial value (of
present - base year 0) - VI
final value (of a given
future year) - VF
value of annual interest
rate (0-1) - IA
RESULT:
Calculation of the number of
years to reach a given value
D=LOG(VF/VI)/LOG(1+IA)
To reach from the initial
(present) value of VI MU$ the future
value of VF MU$ when applying annual
interest rate of IA then necessary
number of years = D
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATES (Ref.:
Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
5) Inflation
index
INPUT DATA:
product (service), measure
units, quantity - S$,U$,Q
monetary units - M$
base year - AB determinate year - AN
S k i p indicator to be calculated! All other three
data must be available:
average price in the
base year -
average price in the
determinate year - PN
cost of a given quantity
of product(service) in the base
year - CO
cost of the same
quantity of the product(service) in the
determinate year - CN
RESULT:
Cost in the base year = CN*PO/PN M$
Cost in the determinate year = CO/(PO/PN) M$
Price in the base year = CO*(PN/CN) M$
Price in the determinate
year =
Inflation index between the year AB and the year AN = ((PN/PO)*100)-100 or =
((CN/CO)*100)-100 i.e. average annual
change to base year value = = (((PN/PO)*100)-100)/(AN-AB) % or =
(((CN/CO)*100)-100)/(AN-AB) %
14.13-APPLICATION OF INTEREST,
DISCOUNT AND INFLATION RATES
(Ref.: Putt et al.)
This subprogramme calculates:
6) Changed
values applying annual inflation rate
INPUT DATA:
monetary units - MU$
initial value (of base
year 0) - VP
value of annual
inflation rate (0-1) - IN
number of years - N
RESULT:
End of Amount = Initial Reduced Future
Year Value Values
FOR I=1 TO N
I VP*((1+IN)^(I)) VP/((1+IN)^(I))
14.14-CONVERSION BETWEEN
NATIONAL CURRENCIES' VALUES
INPUT DATA:
currency A - A$
currency B - B$
Answer only one question of the four (skip other three questions):
value of one unit of A currency in B
currency - C
value of one unit of B
currency in A currency - D
values of a given product
(service) in A currency, in B
currency - G,H
prices of a unit of a given
product (service) in A currency, in B
currency - E,F
RESULT:
V=(1/C)
Rate B$ to A$ =
1 : V
Z=(1/D)
Rate A$ to B$ =
1 : Z
Rate A$ to B$
= 1 : H/G
Rate B$ to A$
= 1 : G/H
If the price of the same thing has the price in A$ = E and in B$
= F following results are
obtained:
Rate A$ to B$
= 1 : F/E
Rate B$ to A$
= 1 : E/F
14.15-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - I
This subprogramme calculates the
budget up to 5 years' period providing that the basic costs for individual components as
well as the eventual inflation rate are
the same in each year. The structure is similar to UNDP projects.
INPUT DATA
programme - NA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
duration of the programme in
years (up to 5) - Y
monetary units - MU$
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? y
inflation rate (as
proportion, i.e. number between >0 and 1) - IN
A n n u a l c o s t of individual components:
1. personnel - C(1)
2. administrative
support - C(2)
3. duty travel - C(3)
4. subcontracts - C(4)
5. training - C(5)
6. expendable equipment - C(6)
7. non-expendable
equipment - C(7)
8. premises - C(8)
9. operation and
maintenance - C(9)
10. other expenditure - C(10)
B U D G E T FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Budget component T o t a l 1. year 2. year 3. year
4. year 5.year
FOR I=1 TO 10
SC(I)=C(I)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^1)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^2)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^3)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^4)
I A$(I)
SC(I) C(I)
(C(I)*(1+IN)^1 C(I)*(1+IN)^2 C(I)*(1+IN)^3 C(I)*(1+IN)^4
Y1=C(1)
Y2 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)
Y3 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)^2
Y4 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)^3
Y5 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)^4
GT1=Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4+Y5
T o t a l GT1
Y1 Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
14.15-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - I
This subprogramme calculates the
budget up to 5 years' period providing that the basic costs for individual components as
well as the eventual inflation rate are
the same in each year. The structure is similar to UNDP projects.
INPUT DATA
programme - NA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
duration of the programme in
years (up to 5) - Y
monetary units - MU$
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? n
A n n u a l c o s t of individual components:
1. personnel - C(1)
2. administrative
support - C(2)
3. duty travel - C(3)
4. subcontracts - C(4)
5. training - C(5)
6. expendable equipment - C(6)
7. non-expendable equipment - C(7)
8. premises - C(8)
9. operation and
maintenance - C(9)
10. other expenditure - C(10)
B U D G E T FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Budget component T o t a l 1. year
2. year 3. year 4. year
5.year
FOR I=1 TO 10
I A$(I)
5*C(I)
C(I) C(I) C(I)
C(I) C(I)
TC = sum of C(I)
TCY=TC*Y
T o t a l TCY
TC TC TC TC
TC
14.16-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - II
This subprogramme calculates the
budget up to 5 years' period for up to 10 components to be defined by the user,
providing that the basic costs for
individual components as well as the eventual inflation rate are the same in each year.
INPUT DATA
programme - NA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
duration of the programme in
years (up to 5) - Y
monetary units - MU$
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? y
inflation rate (as
proportion, i.e. number between >0 and 1)
- IN
how many budget components
(up to 10) - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Annual costs of individual components:
I: component name, cost CO$(I),C(I)
SC(I)=C(I)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^1)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^2)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^3)+(C(I)*(1+IN)^4)
B U D G E T FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Budget component T o t a l 1. year 2. year
3. year
4. year
5.year
I CO$(I)
SC(I) C(I)
C(I)*(1+IN)^1 C(I)*(1+IN)^2 C(I)*(1+IN)^3 C(I)*(1+IN)^4
T o t a l GT1 Y1
Y2
Y3 Y4
Y5
Y1=C(1)
Y2 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)
Y3 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)^2
Y4 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)^3
Y5 = sum of C(I)*(1+IN)^4
GT1=Y1+Y2+Y3+Y4+Y5
14.16-MODEL OF BUDGET FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME - II
This subprogramme calculates the
budget up to 5 years' period for up to 10 components to be defined by the user,
providing that the basic costs for
individual components as well as the eventual inflation rate are the same in each year.
INPUT DATA
programme - NA$
place, period - PL$,TI$
duration of the programme in
years (up to 5) - Y
monetary units - MU$
calculation with inflation, yes (y) or no (n) ? n
how many budget components
(up to 10) - N
FOR I=1 TO N
Annual costs of individual components:
I: component name, cost CO$(I),C(I)
B U D G E T FOR
ANIMAL HEALTH PROGRAMME
Budget component T o t a l 1. year
2. year 3. year 4. year
5.year
I CO$(I)
5*C(I)
C(I) C(I)
C(I)
C(I)
C(I)
T o t a l TCY TC
TC
TC TC TC
TC=TC+C(I)
TCY=TC*Y